How reliable is China's economic data? | DW Business

China's National Bureau of Statistics has vowed to punish officials for falsifying economic data - warning that anyone caught fudging the numbers would be "found, investigated and dealt with." The warning comes amid mounting skepticism about the veracity of China's official data.
The video features analysis from Derek Scissors, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
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#China #economy #statistics

[@chenyenchengful]

“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.” ..... Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

[@gamingweasel4633]

Good quote! China is definitely lying, but not nearly as much as Russia....which lies about pretty much everything.

[@ChristoffelTensors]

Guy who got cancer treatment in prison under the USSR btw

[@terry1708]

Please compare the US, China and Germany in GDP, import, export, industry production, electric consumption data.

[@cloudwithwind574]

The most intuitive thing to consider is electricity consumption and taxes! China's electricity consumption and taxation have both increased!

[@hoppes979]

This year's foot in mouth award goes to.....

[@hoanglannguyen5871]

It means the internal fiddling of the statistics is to such an extent that they are not meaningful or believable by even domestic organisations

[@ChristoffelTensors]

Same goes with the US

[@developerAKX]

​@@ChristoffelTensors their growth rate is already very slow currently

[@fanimaxyt]

Ok wumao ​@@ChristoffelTensors

[@hiruzenmonofuke7344]

​@@ChristoffelTensors the us does not falsify economic growth data. It can't really do that, there are checks and balances put in place, to make sure it doesn't.

[@ChristoffelTensors]

@@hiruzenmonofuke7344 Bruh 15% of the gdp calculations are called “imputations” please be serious.

[@farhorizons3901]

6:39 "Xi does not want a thriving private sector" - first time I've heard a commentator say that. Explains Xi's crackdown on multiple industries, but does he realistically think that the state can provide the growth for the economy?

[@kamsunleong6648]

He doesnt know what he's talking. Like most China experts, they are a dime a dozen. Despite trade tensions US businesses sent the strongest ever delegation late last year to Shanghai for the China International Trade Expo. While 500 European firms took part. VW recently invested more than a billion dollars and shifted their ev production from Germany to Hefei China. They know that's where the action and future of ev are. Risk staying at home and die a slow death. No leader in his right mind will leave the entire economy to be run by the state.

[@zacksmith5963]

And u have proof otherwise

[@raoulhery]

just like in the west, the fight against "COVID" was worse than the disease itself !!!

[@timkey_4542]

I think Xi isn't afraid of a thriving private sector. He's afraid of a thriving private sector outside of party control

[@michaelrenper796]

XI jinping anti private sector policies have been a topic amongst China analysts for 2-3 years now. We have no idea what he truly thinks, which is a huge problem from multiple angles. All we can tell from afar is that he believes in. "Stability". People who knew him before he became unapproachable say he is traumatized by the cultural revolution and obsessed with avoiding any semblance of unpredictability.

[@088691]

This commentator apparently knows his stuff

[@JCSY1]

Know how to speak is not necessarily knowing nor telling the whole real truth. That has always been the US and western skills in twisting and turning true facts to suit their agenda and own benefits. That's how they maintain their hegemony and the world already knows about all these tricks .

[@Zei33]

‘Apparently’ is the right word.

[@swingingdaniel]

EXACTLY! We all should get used to the nasty word recession concerning China's economy.@@Zei33

[@sownyp9980]

@@Zei33 here, take ur 50 cents.

[@socialistdemocrat7207]

Yeah, he knows a lot, and if you keep in mind he that he is speaking from an American perspective with all its associated ideology behind it, it is indeed a very interesting interview.

[@pervertt]

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and Chinese government statistics.”

[@MusehanaH]

On a scale of 1 to 1, one being the most likely and 1 being the least likely, how likely yould you say the US changed the way they calculate inflation in order to hide that they are already in recession?

[@peacelover2008]

yes,all the Chinese infrastructure are fade, all amde by paper, including houses,HSR, all goods exported to your country, mare than half of the commercial ships are made by China including the owners all over the world, they required China to make paper ship so China can cook their GDP numbers, how smart you are, Chinese felt so happy that thier rivals has people like you.

[@qingzhou9983]

Hope you will be able to convince the US about this. Then you will really contribute to the World Peace.

[@YourHineyness]

Mark Twain approves this message.

[@Bk6346]

Where are all these new roads, bridges, hydroelectric dams, airports, coal plants, subways and high speed rail the Chinese built coming from?

[@lhommeaudacieux]

Any provincial bureaucrat who has been sending misleading data would instantly make himself suspicious if he suddenly changed it now.

[@kylesmith8128]

He could blame it one someone else. Easy.

[@Fiona20238]

what they did is to adjust the previous figures down so it boosts this year numbers then they do it again the next year. They think no one is going to look back to last year numbers but in there are people who noticed what they have been doing for monthly, quarterly and yearly reports.

[@lwwells]

It doesn’t matter. The old rule was “give me positive data”. The new rule is “give me positive data AND don’t lie”. Anybody that isn’t pro-authoritarian will see the issues with that.

[@alanbudde8560]

Even worse, their predecessors sent in bad information. Now its a game of musical chairs to see who gets caught, but they have no choice since bad results will be harshly punished

[@deebil8099]

They are all corrupt. They also just run up the debt of the provinces to hit their GDP numbers because then they will get promoted and then the debt will become someone else's problem. That's why there is so much useless infrastructure projects. China builds ghost cities and bridges to nowhere using debt because it's an easy way to increase their GDP numbers. You can increase your GDP by building a bridge, knocking it down, building it up again and again. This will obviously cause you problems down the road....

[@Ves189]

Really good and informative interview. Keep it up!

[@itsnight772]

China loves hiding

[@BigFaceOfTheKnownUniverse]

​@@cinpeace353better than ccp's😂

[@cinpeace353]

@@BigFaceOfTheKnownUniverse Depends on whether you want hear what you want hear or you want to understand the real world. It is just like news about Ukraine is winning in recent years. It makes you happy with what you want to hear.

[@Djamonja]

@@cinpeace353 Nah, it's based on actual evidence, but nice try.

[@zacksmith5963]

​@@Djamonjawhy don't u prove it . Waiting

[@zapfanzapfan]

Drop in imports, drop in exports, but growth in GDP... suuure....

[@DBGE001]

China economy was doing well during Covid due to the huge demand of electronics and medical goods in the world. You might recall the crazy shipping cost at that time. The Chinese export was 2500bn USD in 2019 and increased to 3316bn in 2021 and 3380bn USD in 2023. Post covid and after Ukraine war, China never has the sky-high inflation in other countries thanks to its own vast manufacturing base and cheap energy imports from Russia, and this is why China GDP is growing in its own currency with close to zero inflation. The Chinese GDP is doing relatively poor in USD has more to do with Forex as the US government has to raise interest rate to fight inflation. People just can't understand the basics of economy.

[@cinpeace353]

The growth was drop because of it. There are no contradiction. 😅

[@j03forfun]

South Korea: exports -7, imports -12, GDP growth +1.4 It seems that South Korea’s data is not reliable as well😂

[@jianyang6281]

it is not all about import/export. Government monetary policy wins all.

[@xavergraupe602]

China boost its GDP by building internal infrastructure like bridge, high speed train links to reach their "target" which they fix at the beginning of the year, which is very different how rest of the world does. Many of those infrastructure are not profitable and it is kind of a lost investment.

[@user-bb4in5ez9e]

It is impossible for any country with this size of economy to grow faster each year. So the question is how fast the increase rate drop and where it stabilizes.

[@icu17siberia]

true. its the law of large numbers. we should see if this is a trend over a period of years, or not

[@paulinelambert7780]

"found, investigated and dealt with" - really scary stuff

[@MrChenjinyuan]

Ll conjecture of biased Western press. USA economy is booming and unemployment is only 4% yet just about every second announcement is about a top US company laying off 20 000 workers at a time. And if the top economy in the world is booming how come they can only mange 2.5% annualized growth. So who is fooling who here. Also China does not have 34 trillion debt

[@jasonjean2901]

The U.S. is literally adding roughly $2 Trillion in new debt every year right now, just to hold off economic recession...but China is somehow doing worse.

[@donyakusa9187]

😂…that’s hilarious. China has been doing this since they entered the WTO.

[@zacksmith5963]

And u have proof of that

[@donyakusa9187]

@@zacksmith5963 - The land of cutting corners and make believe! This is China’s motto.

[@zacksmith5963]

@@donyakusa9187 and u have proof of that ?

[@peacelover2008]

yes,all the Chinese infrastructure are fade, all amde by paper, including houses,HSR, all goods exported to your country, mare than half of the commercial ships are made by China including the owners all over the world, they required China to make paper ship so China can cook their GDP numbers, how smart you are, Chinese felt so happy that thier rivals has people like you.

[@user-di7ql6hx3z]

你真的很傲慢，你祖上是贵族吗？

[@zz3410]

Even Li Keqiang, the econ head, said it's for guidance and that the figures are unreliable...so more of a target to reach, at all costs, if officials want to keep their posts. He looks at electricity consumption, rail cargo and bank lending instead. M2 money supply is probably better than lending data. Post covid, better to look at retail sales, air travel and the property market.

[@zacksmith5963]

And u have proof of that ? He never said that

[@cjh903]

If you look at electricity consumption, an interesting fact is, in the past 20 years, China's electricity consumption has increased four times, while the United States has almost zero growth.

[@zz3410]

@@cjh903 14 billion tons of CO2 vs. 6 billion for the U.S. Be proud! China numba one!

[@zz3410]

@@zacksmith5963 He told an ambassador before Li became VP.

[@lagoonlane]

Very interesting dude. Would love to see more of him.

[@patrickgammeltoft2018]

awesome commentator, actually some clear toughts!

[@ancientfishing]

They don’t even give numbers in a lot of things anymore.

[@atanacioluna292]

DW, you are always so clear and complete. Thanks for being a reliable searchlight.

[@axis_8]

Very enlightening! Great anchor and commentator.

[@Glorious_Kim_Jong_Un]

Anchor is the impressive one here with all of the info

[@jarheadcharlie2315]

Kind of hard for GDP to be positive when the largest sector of your economy has been in freefall.

[@jameswalker7899]

Interesting. A good, well-focused interviewer, with a knowledgeable, succinct interviewee. Warmest compliments. Thank you. :)

[@MeganoOdles]

Falsifying data? How relaible is Germany's pandemic figures, or VW emission figures?

[@vikashchandra9917]

Classic whataboutism. The VW emissions and German pandemic are not under the lens in this video. Stop deflecting.

[@user-xp7nk9dw8d]

​@@vikashchandra9917classic pajeed nonsense Pajeed talk like this India best achievements so far India's Hunger index 2013: 63rd rank 2022: 107th rank India's Happiness index. 2013: 111th rank 2022: 136th rank India's press freedom rank 2013:79th 2022: 150the the fourth pillar of worlds largest democracy is no more India's unemployment rate 2013:4.9% 2023:7.5% Unemployment rate never increase in growing economy.. india is growing only on paper and by loan India's Debt before 2014: ₹55 lakh crore 2023: ₹155 lakh crore India's GDP from 2004 to 2014: $709 billion to 2.04 trilion (almost triple) India's GDP from 2014to 2024: $2.04 trillion to 3.6 trilion (expected)...not even double

[@jackreacher8858]

YOU GOT THAT RIGHT !

[@xiaohuijin4952]

The lady was so disappointed that she did get what she expected to hear.

[@krantimanraghunayak4147]

Lmao they always bring in experts who dance around the topic, never say what everyone knows. apparently no one told them about how derek scissors presents XD He is straightforward to a fault.

[@bfrandsen1]

I'm hopeful for India but his opinion on the increased interest into investing into India is correct. Great guest.

[@zacksmith5644]

😂😂😂😂 good joke

[@desmasic]

It makes sense to invest in India over China. China is a communist hole that hates democracies and only country the size of China capable of handling China is going to be India. So either the money west has been pouring in goes into India, or the world ignores India and India sides with China and Russia in the future, which is bad for the west anyway. This is why India is now the new China, and unlike China, a functioning democracy which doesn't hate the world.

[@tobiwan001]

Deflation, rising unemployment, high debt and an real estate crisis but still 5% GDP growth. I really doubt it.

[@cloudwithwind574]

The most intuitive thing to consider is electricity consumption and taxes! China's electricity consumption and taxation have both increased!

[@Jry088]

And the struggle of the stock market

[@spicysealion-et8kf]

I remember there was talk of China outsourcing intensive labor to other countries and transitioning into a consumer/service market or something like that. Maybe if China didn't behave so aggressively over the last 10 years and instead truly built the B&R into a major labor supply from surrounding countries, it would be a different position than now.

[@tdawg5742]

China will never be a lead consumer/service market because they lack the credibility and accountability to go with it. The reason the West is so good at services is because everything is transparent and the data is easily accessible. Then there is a ton of 3rd party agencies like SEC, FDA, CDC, NIH, OSHA, FSIC that are in charge of overlooking everything in between from operations to safety to finances. Services and Consumers markets requires A LOT of trust for it to work efficiently. Consumer and Services doesn't work when corruption is rampant and everyone is trying to cheat and steal from each other. China shot itself in the foot when they decided that lying and cheating results would yield endgame gains and I personally don't think it will ever shake that reputation.

[@tdawg5742]

@@zacksmith5963 yet, thousands of Chinese are fleeing China and the Chinese consist of the third largest illegal immigrants coming into USA. For a country that lost, seems like everyone is trying to come to the USA. Wumao, go collect your 50 cent before the funds dry up.

[@SelfProclaimedEmperor]

​@@zacksmith5963purchasing power parity is a number provided only by china's government and no one else can see the real data. It's made up..nominal gdp is measured by international organizations. Nominal gdp is more accurate and it says the US economy is nearly 10 trillion dollars larger than china's.

[@clancywiggam]

@@zacksmith5963 Sure, USA lost. Come and see me in 10 years, China!

[@Mariobrownio1989]

Trade wars? Also America does not allow china to purchase any tech companies overseas

[@anthonyferris8912]

Central authorities need accurate data if they are massage it. You can't cook the books if you're working with cooked data.

[@ryanreedgibson]

They use accurate data but don't report accurate data.

[@anthonyferris8912]

No they dont. The regional authorities are every bit as corrupt as the central.

[@fba90130]

Like all crooks they have 2 sets of books.

[@awdrifter3394]

It's microwave reheated data.

[@NickSteffen]

@@fba90130 Sounds like they have 3-4 sets of books and are trying to get down to two 😅

[@ulfosterberg9116]

It like Goebles saying that if anyone lies, he will be annoyed.

[@fabiss23]

CCP bots, ACTIVATE!

[@yifuhood]

Western Fascism ACTIVATE.

[@fabiss23]

@@yifuhood salty? hehahaha

[@zacksmith5963]

Cia bot spotted😂😂😂

[@Arniux17]

​@@zacksmith5963wumao spotted 😂

[@yestomor7673]

the europeppa is mad🌚🌚

[@d58l68]

how reliable is DW's interview

[@frankkobold]

Compared to what baseline? FT? Since that's kinda the gold standard, I would say less. Compared to -pick a random Chinese outlet? Pretty much the gold standard itself.

[@weisong4402]

@@MikeJones50911 Deutsche Welle is very credible. They once said that Putin will fail, Russia has no artillery shells, and sanctions will have a devastating blow to the Russian economy.

[@yestomor7673]

DW, like every other NATO media, is never reliable when it comes to political things.

[@leqiaop1840]

@MikeJones50911 DW News is consistently reliable and credible for what ? For own political interesse, yes. For others, like war report or economic data from other nations, absolutely wrong.

[@nottooherbal]

Interesting interview.

[@DBGE001]

not realy

[@bananabear009]

Just had a trip to France. Chinese tourists have practically disappeared compared to 6 years ago when I last went there. It tells a lot about the Chinese economy. I remember when I was a young man travelling to Europe 30 years ago, people would say hello to any Asian face in Japanese. China is going down the same path, if not worse.

[@sibaraku2023]

how is the economy in Europe?

[@user-cn6zr4mh4h]

You saw less Chinese tourists in France, because they now feel foreign countries are not more developed than China.

[@allensadicario5196]

No loss

[@cinpeace353]

It is close to Chinese New Year. Most of them are visiting their hometown. Not a good indicator at this couple months.

[@linyishuai]

even worse

[@yomajo]

Amazing guest, thank you DW and Derek.

[@gregoryvangaya8971]

Incredibly good, insightful interview, great questions and just an on-it analyst

[@user-li2my9dp4j]

🇺🇲💊💊🇪🇺😁✌️

[@adammarshall6257]

USA doesn't need to raise retirement age, they just need to close the tax loopholes.

[@jongrho602]

That will never happen. The Left have been promising to "Soak the Rich" for generations and yet the gap between the poor and rich has been growing, and its actually been growing faster under Democrat Presidents (Clinton and Obama) than Republican Presidents. Back in the 90's my boss asked me to do a study on what the percentage of Federal Income comes from Income Tax and it was remarkably consistent (within a few percentage points) no matter what the top tax rate was. So yes, the tax loopholes you mention. Basically what types of income are not taxable. The very wealthy make sure that their income is the non-taxable kind.

[@adammarshall6257]

​@@jongrho602 If Americans didn't keep voting for Republicans, Biden has said he wants to put a minimum tax on billionaires WEALTH and make the ultra rich pay their fair share. The only problem is people are so brainwashed by the past they can't see that he actually wants to change things. And before you say that's a lie, he's already passed bills bringing manufacturing and production back to the USA, and actually led the country to a decent recovery from the pandemic. You guys should really be in recession right now because of what Trump did.

[@andrekoniger3020]

Not gonna happen

[@buffaloalice8413]

It comes down to saving face. The moral negatives of lying about the data are secondary to how they appear to a global audience.

[@harvardjohnson5741]

Who knows? The only thing you know for sure is that their numbers are forever to serve political purposes and needs at the time.

[@walhdamaskus2408]

Seeing is beleaving. What i see now in germany is from one crisis to another crisis. Maybe this DW bias news can make some germen feel a litrle bit better until tomorrow's electric bill come to knock the door. 😂😂😂

[@kth6736]

The ccp about to assign this video's comments section to a bot farm in 3... 2... 1...

[@netterdrachen1687]

But you are the only clown here. 😂

[@moniranik5674]

The Western world always tends to underestimate Other world powers. Their superiority complex will destroy them. EU and the USA tried to destroy the Russian economy. Now see who's economy is doing better.

[@guydreamr]

@@netterdrachen1687 But you are OP's prophecy come true. 🤣🤣

[@designengrwafu5310]

​@@netterdrachen1687a wumao caught 😂😂

[@Cris88G]

A fine bait indeed. 😂

[@fankefang]

I just saw some two foxes telling other foxes that the grapes are sour, since none of them can get a taste of the grapes.

[@stevenhuang8786]

haha, i like your humor!

[@TheSteinbitt]

Taste which grapes? Chinese? All we have are Chinese grapes, and they’re good!

[@tkmmkt6569]

The answer is about as reliable as everything else they claim.

[@mastertrend4685]

But Volkswagen sold 3m autos, Mercedes sold 0.8m autos, BMW sold 0.8m autos in China

[@jkselama4698]

Probably it is just as reliable as your honesty.

[@brickz3539]

byd sales 3m autos in 2023 idk where do you get that statistic @@mastertrend4685

[@HenrikVendelbo]

Surprisingly good briefing

[@Leshic2]

6:08 was a fantastic description of the Chinese stock market.

[@gsomethingsomething2658]

Free Brendan Kavanagh!

[@fongponto]

Don't touch the piano!!!

[@kamsunleong6648]

Tell him to get a regular job. Instead of leeching off the Chinese tourists.

[@naakatube]

6.3 trillions dollars lost since 2021 😮😮😮

[@DBGE001]

China economy was doing well during Covid due to the huge demand of electronics and medical goods in the world. You might recall the crazy shipping cost at that time. The Chinese export was 2500bn USD in 2019 and increased to 3316bn in 2021 and 3380bn USD in 2023. Post covid and after Ukraine war, China never has the sky-high inflation in other countries thanks to its own vast manufacturing base and cheap energy imports from Russia, and this is why China GDP is growing in its own currency with close to zero inflation. The Chinese GDP is doing relatively poor in USD has more to do with Forex as the US government has to raise interest rate to fight inflation. People just can't understand the basics of economy.

[@marvinericdelosreyes]

And yet Chinese banks are defaulting. Economy doesn't just boom because they earn much, you also need to factor the people ij the economy. They are a communist nation with the largest population in the world and focusing on military investment rather than economic stimulation (they even targetted chinese business giants like Jack Ma which is a bad idea). Lesser businesses, means lesser work means lesser people who can pay mortgages means banks defaulting means money depreciating due to credits lost indefinitely. ​@@DBGE001

[@zenden9]

@@DBGE001 Troll and bot dont understand your explanation. All they want just to smear China.

[@CatManOfTaste]

@@DBGE001counter point “account made 1 month ago”

[@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz]

They say that NOW after it's been 30 years of making up Numbers, from population to GDP...

[@zacksmith5963]

Source ? Proof ??

[@MeganoOdles]

Falsifying data? How reliable is Germany's Covid data? or VW's emission data?

[@andrewk.1310]

Peter Zeihan has been nailing this point over thepasr few years. Bring him on too.

[@mat3714]

Peter is a doomsayer. He correctly identifies issues ( like many others have ) but then proceed to overblow their consequences and the ability of protagonists to adapt.

[@zacksmith5644]

Peter zeihan ramblings😂😂😂😂

[@sdaiwepm]

5:55 "Peking"! That threw me off for a second.

[@leezhieng]

Her mentality is still stuck in 1800s.

[@yestomor7673]

What's peking? Pigeon?

[@xiao-rongpeng9804]

The message: why worry?

[@ModerateObserver]

‘Derek Scissors’ - Bob Mortimer would be proud of coming up with that name 😂

[@bmmilind4333]

Actually chinese economy may be inflated by about 40% -50% real chinese economy could be 12-13 Trillion $ and Indian economy is understated by 40-50% , real Indian economy could be well over 6 Trillion $ , so its a crazy world we live in 😅

[@iamsheep]

dream on

[@esashaik1372]

India has the biggest economy in the world.India is 100 years ahead of the world.India even has more toilets than the rest of the world thanks to Modi.

[@chunhinlam]

yea yea India make everything by mouth, China make things by hand 😌😌😌

[@chutenderchodi7369]

Chinese economy reflects itself the moment you enter china. Can't be said for India 😂😂

[@desmasic]

By hand and in sewer oil, all Tofu Dreg projects. Amiright 50 cent army? @@chunhinlam

[@Laggie74]

That's why we teach our kids not to lie. The truth will always win.

[@cinpeace353]

Well, the over 30 years of China economy is bad narratives is still have audience. They are not giving up even the truth wins. 🤣🤣

[@cloudpoint0]

Honesty is always the best policy until something better comes along.

[@jianyang6281]

so, China lies for over 30 years? or you are telling your kids false info?

[@Laggie74]

@@cinpeace353 yeah, just look at their stock market... and booming real estate. Everyone is a millionaire by doing food delivery and picking trash. I wish I was born there. It's like heaven. 😆

[@cinpeace353]

@@Laggie74 You sound like not knowing there are boom and bust in markets and delivery people in other parts of the world. Try look around the real world. 🤣🤣

[@joaodecarvalho7012]

The anchor seems really interested.

[@mikslids7083]

The Ministry of Public Security of China issued an important reminder: If you are out of town recently, please don’t argue with others. If the other person is... a stock investor, no one can help you!

[@sarcasmo57]

First person I've heard say that China is in economic decline after the short term.

[@davidmarchand384]

👍🏻 The official 🇨🇳 data are completely crooked since a long time for one single reason: real estate. Very simple when you finish building new homes/apartments you declare the value per sqm that you want and multiply by the nb of sqm even though none of these apartment has been sold !!! And they have been advertising apartments at 1000-2000 USD/sqm in remote regions when these apartments have technically no value. In my view not more than 100-200 USD/sqm. So 10x more than real value… so if you multiply by 100.000s of apartments built then you understand. Some more they have been literally forcing people to relocate in these apartments by cutting down on their access to school for their kids, medical coverage and so on… people got into heavy debt that they will never be able to pay back ! Another 5 years and disaster will strike anyway.

[@kamsunleong6648]

Another 5 years? China experts have been predicting their demise since their nineties. One expert wrote a best sellers book and put a definitive date of 2001 as the year of collapse. More 2 decades have since passed. This expert is still highly regarded and sort after for the next definitive date.

[@junqiaojohnzhao9517]

We went to my father in law’s small town for spring festival this year. I do feel that youngsters roaming on the streets become much less this year then last year. Maybe they had returned to big cities for job opportunities.

[@barrylane4164]

Really excellent DW. Thank You so much!!!

[@JonySmith-bb4gx]

Bot

[@jaapfolmer7791]

It gives a new meaning to "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"

[@bullpup1337]

statistics with chinese characteristics

[@ToeKneeOooo]

@@bullpup1337 Lol! Well said.

[@DBGE001]

China economy was doing well during Covid due to the huge demand of electronics and medical goods in the world. You might recall the crazy shipping cost at that time. The Chinese export was 2500bn USD in 2019 and increased to 3316bn in 2021 and 3380bn USD in 2023. Post covid and after Ukraine war, China never has the sky-high inflation in other countries thanks to its own vast manufacturing base and cheap energy imports from Russia, and this is why China GDP is growing in its own currency with close to zero inflation. The Chinese GDP is doing relatively poor in USD has more to do with Forex as the US government has to raise interest rate to fight inflation. People just can't understand the basics of economy.

[@ToeKneeOooo]

@@DBGE001 But is that data based on China's data or the United States and the rest of the world based on exports and imports. China manipulates it's currency and markets. The question is, why would you trust data coming from China?

[@kennethauyeung9505]

Why don't you ask who reliable about the figures from USA?

[@raymonddon8875]

China... # 1 in EV cars, head of BRICS, biggest project on the planet (belt & road), only nation with world class space station, manufacturing capital of the world, major infrastructure projects world wide, 5000 years of recorded history, # 1 in A.I., biotech, science, math, computer, etc. longest uninterrupted history, oldest surviving civilization & richest nation 1500 years ago, as well as the richest nation on the planet today. no other nation can even come close. what china did this last 50 years was ground braking, albeit this next 50 years will be even more astonishing. this next generation is western educated, world traveled & they think outside the box. brave new world indeed...

[@Happiness.789]

Misleading data is common place in many developing the.

[@marczapatos2229]

Countries should ask china how to doctor economic data.

[@Monkehrawrrr]

No way US doctors its economic data hahahhahahahhaa

[@TheKingpool7]

Yes, this is so interesting that all the analysts avoid it. Corruption combined with face saving culture has caused situation where even Xi doesnt know how big the GDP is or if it grew or shrined. It literally has no correlation with real life. In west correlation is easily observable.

[@cinpeace353]

Yes, always through actions not talks. China is really practical.

[@timmy-wj2hc]

Becuase the masters of doctoring economic data at the US can't hide the truth anymore with their 34 Trillion in debt and this time China will not bailed the US again like the Chinese did in 2008.😂😂😂😂

[@marczapatos2229]

@@cinpeace353 falsifying data is a national pasttime in china. It may be practical but it doesnt always work.

[@kingk5013]

Everything made in china and you telling me they are doing badd

[@JCSY1]

That is what they want the world to believe in. China's economy is not as good as before Covid 19 and has some issues that are being addressed by China currently but it is no where as bad as what the US and the west are trying to spread. Still, currently, China's economy is still one of the best if not the best.

[@brunoheggli2888]

Not at all!And germans critisize themself a lot!Germans dont like to beat around the bush!

[@yudogcome5901]

Germany's own GDP growth is significantly negative, so I hope others will do the same, so it doesn't look so embarrassing.

[@stevewebster6309]

Massive drop in investment , falling exports , falling manufacturing, little service growth , debt bubble burst , crashing property market , hard to see where the growth is coming from

[@kamsunleong6648]

They dont waste billions sponsoring warfronts. That's a huge saving.

[@davidtydeman1434]

Australia is a tiny economy compared to China. It takes the Australian Bureau of Statistics over 60 days to complete and publish quarterly GDP data. How a country as large and complex as China can publish data in such a short period of time is mind boggling

[@philipjh6789]

The Chinese are much more efficient than Australians.

[@kamsunleong6648]

They have 5 G, quantum computers, super computers, that are among the fastest in the world. Don't compare a lightweight that still does not have stable internet beyond your cities, with a superpower.

[@VincentFulco]

But, why, oh why were they able to hit GDP targets by +/- .01 for years and years?

[@brunoheggli2888]

Unimportend!What they have to do is to implement a good social safety net and pension system!Retierment age should get up every 2 year one year until its around 64 of age!

[@icu17siberia]

first you have to assume those numbers are factual

[@andreww4898]

They lied for over 40 years😂

[@esashaik1372]

Fun fact:China economy is bigger than 4 Germanies 😅

[@gruffelo6945]

fun fact: Chinas population is (officially) 18 times bigger than Germanies.

[@zacksmith5644]

And not in recession unlike Germany

[@andrekoniger3020]

But it's population is almost 14 times that of germany as well

[@geofflepper3207]

When I was in New Brunswick I heard a story about billionaire K.C. Irving (one of the richest men in Canada if not in the world at one time). Someone said that Irving would go through wastebaskets after office hours in the businesses he owned looking for documents that would indicate what was really going on in those businesses as opposed to what he was being told by his managers. He owned so many businesses that he couldn't possibly run them all himself but he didn't trust his managers to necessarily be telling the full truth when he asked them how the businesses were doing. I guess too many times his managers would just say, "Oh, don't worry boss. Everything is going great. No problems at all". Any time there is a hierarchy in business or in government there is a chance that those lower in the hierarchy will try to cover up problems and give a rose coloured view of how things are going in the region or department they control. What manager or politician or official wants to tell their boss that things are going badly?

[@JJ-rp2df]

Cleverly, finally after 15 mins he ends by saying reported gdp doesn't even really matter.

[@lwwells]

I keep waiting for him to tell me about this “Heisenberg” guy and blue meth.

[@dadadadadada1828]

why do you care about the accuracy of China data?

[@lwwells]

People generally like to call out liars so that others know whom to trust.

[@happymelon7129]

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China.. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think 2022. Business Basics: China's Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is Here.

[@jianlili164]

@@lwwells so who should be trusted? US ? DW?

[@lwwells]

@@jianlili164 I’d say none of the above.

[@icu17siberia]

because China is asking for investments and partners

[@CJ-vc1sh]

If it was so bad, why would you worry about it?

[@andreww4898]

They are best human😂

[@LivingWithGout]

How can you be in a deflation period and have a 5.2 percent growth in 2023? How?

[@icu17siberia]

economic forecasting is about trends, and the trend doesn't look good for China exports. Hard to know about internal consumption, but with the size of their internal market, I wonder why they even care about exports.

[@leezhieng]

Deflation make things cheaper and consumers will be buying more, and hence growth.

[@gruffelo6945]

@@leezhieng that is not how it works usually

[@hoanglannguyen5871]

So gdp is actually lower in 2023 at 2.4% instead of going higher. That would be closer to reality given the downturn of foreign invetment and divestment in China by global companies while other countries increase production to take up China's slack

[@lvjinbin28]

why don't you invite Gordon Chang?

[@TruthRules2]

"Best case?" More like "fantasy" case!

[@thrissurdiary9583]

Reporter got the grin of a jackal while asking about GDP fall of China.....😂😂

[@wongkoewei9829]

We might never know whether a data is true or not. No matter where it came from. But most viewers also tend to selectively view the data that fit their own set of default narrative. We call this as "confirmation bias"

[@alanjyu]

I actually think the question of how much China actually grew is a leading question because I don't even think their economy grew. I think the real question that needs to be asked is if China's economy grew or if it shrunk.

[@alanjyu]

I actually think the question of how much China actually grew is a leading question because I don't even think their economy grew. I think the real question that needs to be asked is if China's economy grew or if it shrunk.

[@marcuslim5060]

I almost laughing falling out of chair. EURO Zone ,German barely struggle to reach GDP 0-1%, but busy body and nosy to pointing at the country with GDP above 5%. 🤣

[@marcuslim5060]

Sorry guys, I made a mistake. I am a bit optimistic about euro zone GDP..It is not 0-1%, it is -ve, recession to 1%... keep up the good work European!

[@abcdedfg8340]

Because recessions are not allowed to exist by the bureau of statistics lol?

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@sergiisavytskyi5913]

Great commentary.

[@nagasako7]

Hedge funds use satellites to track Chinese power plant output. But issue is Xi sometimes has power plants operate even if no electrical demand.

[@zargorn]

There are also some interesting estimates based on light output seen from space.

[@zacksmith5963]

​@@zargornsource ???

[@sps6]

And xi has switched on the lights even in the day..😂

[@zacksmith5963]

@@sps6 source ???

[@sps6]

@@zacksmith5963 what your source Chinese communist party? 😀

[@facitenonvictimarum174]

I'll have Number 5 please, Ginger beef with oyster sauce over rice and a side of egg foo young.

[@sleepymeow7156]

While the German economy is declining, why don't we discuss whether China shows real economic growth data... probably nothing...🤷🏻‍♂

[@lwwells]

Bingo

[@jackreacher8858]

Obviously Mr. Scissors is not going to hug pandas

[@robhappe906]

No growth only lies

[@zacksmith5644]

Source ??? Proof ???

[@vlrdmtr]

The question is how reliable is EU and US economic data ???

[@brunoheggli2888]

Very

[@vlrdmtr]

Ha ha … very funny?!

[@merzto]

Look it up. It's not some secret like in China.

[@vlrdmtr]

I know it’s not like China ( although I really don’t) but I guess you are 16 years old and still believe that Santa exists

[@abcdedfg8340]

Very funny. Crazy how they report recessions. Why would they be able to do that.

[@robtangent4664]

The downside of the locate governments reporting inflated GDP that they would have to contribute a certain percentage of their gains to the central government. I wonder how that work.

[@leesoonkong8149]

would you tell everyone how much money in your pocket ?

[@waqarhaq7537]

Nevermind how reliable china economy is just worry about your own economy

[@Monkehrawrrr]

Yes this.

[@Alex-fm5ke]

They’re the second largest economy in the world, the largest exporter, second largest importer. They’re a very important player in the global economy so analysis on it is important

[@brunoheggli2888]

Chinas economy is so big that its infuences the whole world!

[@shawnsmith524]

China needs to let the kids play more games longer per week they need high school drop outs to work the factorys for 1-2 bucks per hour

[@DBGE001]

No, they should learn from Finland when it comes to education. In Finland the schooling system is focused on finding the talent and passion of every child, resulting in happy kids which love to be creative and discover and develop new things. Remember, no development = stand still and stand still = decline.

[@purplemist2779]

@@DBGE001 there are more kinds in my society than in entire finland

[@DBGE001]

Sorry, your joke escapes me. @@purplemist2779

[@cristianfamigliuolo]

Everyone knew full well that everyone was lying! 😂😂 apparently there is no worse deaf person than someone who doesn't want to hear.

[@taorente7438]

Xi Jinping: Do you want China’s economic growth rate? Come on, I'll find someone to draw it and send it to you!

[@mikslids7083]

The Ministry of Public Security of China issued an important reminder: If you are out of town recently, please don’t argue with others. If the other person is... a stock investor, no one can help you!

[@zacksmith5644]

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood ofahard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landingin China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing in China. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landingin China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007.TIME:Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid ahard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009 Fortune: China's hard landing China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 201 5 Forbes: Congratulations, J You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than Vou Think

[@ChakraVart1]

Way back in 2007, the late Li Keqiang called China’s GDP “man-made”. There’s a University of Illinois study of Chinese economic statistics that places it at no more than $9 T. I’m just amazed that it took the media this long to catch on

[@kamsunleong6648]

If the GDP is man made since way back in 2007, explain how in the world did they manage to develop and compete toe to toe with US in almost every industry. I have been to China on many occasions. A picture is worth a thousand words. Seeing is believing. Most China experts do not speak the language or have ever been to China. Why do you think all their predictions of China imminent collapse since the nineties, have fallen flat on their faces. They dont know what they are talking. They sound impressive like this gentleman. That's all.

[@zacksmith5963]

Agreed . Usa gdp is 1 billion $ only

[@walhdamaskus2408]

​@@zacksmith5963, US's gdp is in 34 trillion dept.

[@ChakraVart1]

@@kamsunleong6648 the infrastructure you see is a consequence of the debt number and not the GDP. If you’d like to close your eyes to the deflation, the rampant unemployment, the demographic collapse, the housing collapse, the banking runs, unprecedented protests against the CCP, empty container ports, stock market collapse, stalled BRI projects, lie flat etc, then you’re free to continue pumping your money into China. All the foreign money is leaving now though.

[@3dfxvoodoocards6]

But how reliable is the US economic data ?

[@DBGE001]

The USA's data is far less reliable. The USA publishes GDP number that takes the current quarter and assumes the same growth for the next 3 quarter and calculate the growth in one year in the future, and it doesn't take consideration of inflation. That's where your Q4 rate of 3.3% and Q3 rate of 5% comes from. And guess what, Q4 YOY inflation is 3%! So it means zero actual GDP growth. Yet, western media like DW just take it, plaster it on the headline, no question asked, no controversy. And for 2023, USA's tax collection is down, export down, manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for much of the year, electricity usage is down. You tell me there is 5% GDP growth with 5% inflation? All I can say it magic fair dust numbers. And the stock market doesn't indicate real economic performance when the valuation of the entire stock market is all up.

[@lwwells]

Three point seven

[@jianlili164]

how dare you doubt US data?

[@icu17siberia]

comparison with the US shows a feeling of inferiority

[@abcdedfg8340]

It reports recessions and its not controlled by any one political party. So figure it out.

[@josephgarey1854]

How you raise the retirement age without causing a lot of grief is you announce that in 2044 the retirement age will go up most of the people in retirement right now will be dead by then to be blunt

[@Martin-iw1ll]

Yeah but that would be a problem for the next generation of leaders so why would they announce it now

[@on2thenextthing]

Not even a question worth asking. We all know the answer.

[@user-zz8lb6bd7p]

21 years in China, one promise, no one grew the last 4 years, all business is down a minimum 50% since 2019, everyone

[@DBGE001]

CIA bot?

[@user-zz8lb6bd7p]

@@DBGE001 no, having seen constant bankruptcies of suppliers, the empty unfinished shells of semi-finished apartments and the extreme level of unemployment is easy to understand. No one I know is better of now than 2019 and no one has seen growth

[@user-zz8lb6bd7p]

@@peterseth3296 semiconductors and DJI is a tiny fraction of China export dependent economy. Millions are being laid off for a reason and that is no growth or losses, not exactly what happens in an economy growing 5%. Look no further than steel production to see the real numbers, always a good barometer on economic activity

[@cinpeace353]

Lol, your ignorance or lie is so obvious. There are no need to spread bad narratives and try to contain China if that's the case. We all know renewable and EV are growing for sure. 😅

[@lwwells]

@@peterseth3296semiconductor increased because it had to. China was cutoff from the “good stuff” for misuse.

[@Vikas-pv3ie]

Rather than relying on Chinese data, a better approximation can possibly be done by using export and import data of other countries to and from China.

[@Alex-fm5ke]

Gdp has a consumption and government spending component. So import and export data isn’t enough

[@Vikas-pv3ie]

@@Alex-fm5ke Yes, that's why I said approximation. You won't get right consumption and Govt data anyway.

[@6thface]

Might as well ask if JP Morgan has done anything illegal lately........

[@leqiaop1840]

would it be too late to discuss "reliable" of China economic data or since when did DW or CNN or BBC believe the numbers falsified ?