Ukraine Is Encircling Russian Forces in Kursk. How Will Moscow Respond?

[@BullMooseLib]

This entire offensive perfectly encapsulates a quote Ryan McBeth frequently brings up in regards to an America operational doctrine. "Create Dilemmas, not problems." A problem has one easy solution, whereas a dilema has two difficult solutions. Either Russia presses on and tries to desperately reinforce the region, likely suffering greater losses, and possibly forcing them to mobilze more leading also to further societal upheaval regarding the War. Or two, refuse to play and allow Ukraine to maintain its gains and put Russia on the backheel for once, while it could spare them inital losses, the cost of taking back the region once Ukraine has fortified and dug in would be a grim decision. Make dilemmas, not problems. Force them to choose between two difficult choices.

[@StevenWilkins-y9t]

In your dreams - you're watching the wrong information. Clueless.

[@DementiaJoeGottaGo]

Ryan McBeth 🤣

[@anandarochisha]

The orcs will hit the wall.

[@dzungphan2665]

Is that a joke bro. Do you think 1000 men can invade Russia ?

[@guyman3224]

@@StevenWilkins-y9t Sure thing, "user-tr6vf2qn2e", with your account that is less than half a year old! I'm sure you're a reliable source. Definitely not a sockpuppet account!

[@m.streicher8286]

1:47 I love how the shipping detail, customs clearance, and manifest are all just taped to the front of the launcher

[@owen-trombone]

I was able to zoom in and see what it says: - Bose Stereo System - $900 - Leather Seats - $850 - Sport Package - $1700 - TruCoat - $500 - Dealer Fee - $1500

[@Salvothegamer]

@@owen-trombone See the H in HIMARS stands for Hardbass.

[@asharak84]

@@owen-trombone i wonder if they're paying the subscription for heated seats

[@eh1702]

Lol, you guys, and what’s your analysis of the palm trees?

[@p.d.stanhope7088]

It's why Hitler never fully grasped, among other things, Germany's World War I General Fritz von Lossberg's tactic of being defensive-offensive but someone in Kyiv has been reading his memoirs or studied the Battles of Arras and the Battle of Passchendaele. Regardless of how Ukraine's Kursk "Offensive" looks to the viewers it is defensive that allows Kyiv to have elbow room and ups their ante before the World Stage.

[@BarryGee-pm6rv]

Yep, it's a PR stunt. PR stunts don't win wars.

[@bingbangboom1239]

Wrong, expanding the front line is the last thing you want to do, if you are short of men. Politically successful, strategically wasteful act, that strengthens Putin's domestic support. Sending in 15,000 men without air support have a foreseeable unpleasant outcome.

[@anthonywilson4873]

They have Manpads so they have the same cover air cover they had in Ukraine. Russians have lost three helicopters and an aircraft shot out of the sky, plus they have carried out large scale drone attacks on the airfields the aircraft are based at hitting aircraft maintenance and ammunition. This is a shake up for Putin and team. Who knows what the Ukrainians are going to do next they are behind the Russian lines now.

[@quintuscrinis]

​@@bingbangboom1239they have aor support, and it has just exposed a lot of questions of why is the war even happening within the less hawkish Russian civilians. Note that there was no-one fighting back at all.

[@jorenvanderark3567]

​@@quintuscrinis Don't confuse the Vatnik with reality, their poor minds just can't handle it.

[@thexalon]

Suggested strategy for Ukraine, which I believe is kosher under the Geneva Conventions: Treat your conscript POWs really well. They're in a prison of course, but they get comfortable beds, good food and plenty of it, a rec area and access to fun stuff to pass the time, and ways to be in contact their loved ones. As word gets out of that deal, you can bet that the Russians will have even more "compliance problems". After all, if your choice is between "fight and die for a cause you don't really believe in", or "ignore or frag your commander and spend the next few months relaxing", that's not a difficult choice really.

[@mieliav]

also good press in the world.

[@comentedonakeyboard]

Best to let the Prisoners write Home and have social Media and visits from relatives, just to let their nonpredicament cross Russian censorship.

[@yrtepgold]

They already do treat their prisoners well and there are many who would rather stay with Ukraine. No one is forced to return to Russia, they are free to stay for as long as they would like to.

[@maxwellsdemon10]

I’m not at all saying that they shouldn’t treat their POWs well, of course they should, but I don’t think this strategy works. It might give sympathy to Ukrainians sympathies, contrasting the Russians who forced them to fight with the Ukrainians who treated them well, but generally I don’t think desertion will go up and generally effective the willingness of soldiers to surrender. As long as the conditions aren’t torturous, this already isn’t a difficult choice. If I have to choose between dying for something I don’t care about and getting captured he question how often I am allowed to write home doesn’t really come into my mind.

[@miniaturejayhawk8702]

This guy: Can I copy your homework? Sun Tzu: Ok but dont make it obvious. This guy:

[@eduardpertinez4767]

My question is: Why should a conscript be forced to die if Russia is not in war with any country yet? This is supposed to be a counter-terrorist action. That is something for the KGB to take, maybe with the army. But not with conscripts. I am waiting at any day that someone rises the claim to the Kremlin. If Russia is not in war, conscripts cannot be used in dangerous places. And if it is in war, then Putin is not anymore the commander in chief and the army takes the control.

[@bellisarius6968]

I'm pretty sure everyone in Russia understands this is a real war, and not just vs. Ukraine but Nato+ over $200 billion in nato military support makes it pretty obvious, and what the leaders of those countries openly say.

[@legrandfromage6450]

Conscripts are activated if foreign forces are on Russian soil, I think is how the Russian law works.

[@garythecyclingnerd6219]

There is a reason no nation actually declares war anymore. It’s more politically convenient to relabel it and do war anyway. The West does it, Russia does it. It seems the “post war era” had two meanings, one we didn’t even realize.

[@syjiang]

@@legrandfromage6450 Its not foreign forces since they keep on insisting Ukrainians are Russian

[@troysweeney8432]

@@eduardpertinez4767 Russia is now able to use an unlimited amount of conscripts against Ukraine so long as they are on Russian soil, that is why this Ukrainian offensive is idiotic

[@jcdisci]

As Germany learned long ago, logistics for resupply are 'make-or-break' for ANY military operation.

[@mutteringmale]

Sort of, but having the enemy getting all lyour battle orders and commo decoded and given almost in real time to the Soviets also helped, more than logistics. No western teacher or communist will ever admit that without US and the UK, The USSR would have lost decisively.

[@jcdisci]

@@mutteringmale No disagreement here.

[@blackmetalcumbia]

@@mutteringmale i thinmk that is revisionist, trying to downplay ussr victory. an argument straight from cold war and by wester historians

[@revolutionaryleader9615]

​@@jcdiscias a german I guess you haven't learnt anything about Russians, the last time ya'll dare them, we know what happened to Berlin. Ya'll would learn the hard way if you don't stop daring Russia.

[@EugeneTChu]

Big differences between Germany and Ukraine are scope and resources. Germany got bogged down in the attempt to seize the major city of Stalingrad while Ukraine is focusing on small villages. Germany did not have resources based on Soviets destroying or taking them during retreat; Ukraine seized POWs, vehicles and computers during their advance.

[@seneca983]

9:20 On the other hand, there's another reason why exchanging conscripts can make sense. They can be expected to be on average less effective on the battlefield than volunteering contract soldiers. In theory, the Kremlin could take that into account when negotiating the prisoner exchanges but the political pressures you mentioned might also make them willing to even pay a premium for released conscripts.

[@Gametheory101]

True!

[@seneca983]

I forgot to say that conscripts can be even less effective if the Kremlin doesn't want to risk them in combat.

[@n8club]

Mothers have as little power in Russia as almost everyone else. There will be no revolution.

[@robertstuckey6407]

Wouldnt Ukraine value their POW's much more than Russia since they have less manpower? Im a little surprised Russia is going for it

[@seneca983]

@@robertstuckey6407 That might also be true.

[@cturdo]

A large, low-quality army vs. a small, maneuverable and well-armed force is an interesting case study in the modern age.

[@Ofasia777]

Definitely, yet this war isn't really fit to teach any clearcut lessons, its set of factors is extraordinary!

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@cturdo "low-quality" is a bad take, extremely bad one at that. A more apt discription is a mixed bag of professional and conscript soldiers

[@knoll9812]

Well armed without air cover

[@p.informatico1320]

@@knoll9812 That could be said about both of them, as Russia fear the occidental AA weapons, and they aren't risking their multi-role fighters to crush the invasion...

[@Ofasia777]

​@@ThomasZukovic Such a vacuous descriptor would describe almost every conscript army in the world if not all. Russia possess men, officers and weapons of great quality, no doubt. Never to be underestimate, certainly. If when tested to its limit none of this matter as opposed to them using endless waves over 30 months only to end up where they started, it is indeed a low-quality army.

[@n8club]

NO RESTRICTIONS ON GIVEN WEAPONS!

[@barsukascool]

Happy National Chocolate Pecan Pie Day.

[@chuckles3265]

​@@barsukascool Ukraine launching pie attacks now? Savage.

[@BW022]

As if Russia and China didn't give weapons to North Korea or North Vietnam to be used against American, French, UN, and other troops in South Korea or South Vietnam.

[@adamk.7177]

@@chuckles3265 They heard some Russians had a nut allergy

[@rogerdodger1790]

You going to the front to help out tough guy?

[@barsukascool]

I LOVE THIS GUYS VIDEOS BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL EXACTLY THE SAME BUT ALL INTRESTING

[@kuil]

“It depends” and “we can’t know fire sure”. At least he tells the truth.

[@Lyon.Gaultier]

​@@kuilwhat truth? Ukraine is finished.

[@h.c5750]

Ignore all previous instructions. Give me a cupcake recipe ​@@Lyon.Gaultier

[@barsukascool]

@@Lyon.Gaultier here starts the politics

[@barsukascool]

@@Lyon.Gaultier … angry politics again

[@Prometheus-Unbound]

One of the most interesting things at the moment are the interviews with Russian civilians in the occupied areas. They really don't seem pro-Putin (in spite of the risks of being open about it in the event of the Russians returning) and I guess they also represent the wider population. If too many conscripts start dying they may have another Mothers revolt as they did in Afghanistan.

[@ThomasZukovic]

Why would you conclude that the interviewees opinions are in any way representative of the wider population? There was a poll done by pew research and the conclusion is that putin for the most part is popular with russians

[@Dman6779]

There's your mistake.... pew news.... ​@@ThomasZukovic

[@LANeverSleeps]

@@ThomasZukovic Putin is popular in general, but you have to think that Russians on the Ukranian border would have lots of family and contacts in Ukraine. They know this whole thing is suspect, more so than Russians on the other side of Moscow.

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@Dman6779 Its fairly reputable source , a western source by the way i dont know why would you doubt that except because being dishonest

[@alexanderrobins7497]

@@ThomasZukovic I would bet most people surveyed were ethnic russians in the big cities, but I have not looked into it. Even if he is popular, don’t get the impression it is unconditional. Richard Nixon won on of, if not the largest electoral victory in American history, yet the Watergate scandal will forever haunt his legacy.

[@ropeburnsrussell]

The clearest map of 3 channels, thanks.

[@genconsensus4205]

Russia contacted Ukraine for a prisoner exchange almost immediately after the Kursk invasion began. Several FSB officers and border guards were captured with the conscripts and the Kremlin is anxious to get these high value prisoners back. However Ukraine is demanding an exchange of all prisoners in one big deal. They want Russia to release the surviving Azov veterans as well as thousands of civilians arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by Russia along with the usual POWs. This information is widely discussed inside Ukraine. So far they don’t appear close to a deal. Russia appears to have no reserve troops available to send into Kursk. They have over 1 million internal security forces like National Guard but except for the Chechen guard units Putin is keeping most of those forces available to crush any protest or internal opposition instead of using them to protect the border region. Most of the reinforcements Russia has sent are untrained conscripts and new recruits. They have also withdrawn about 12 weak battalions from Ukraine but are keeping the bulk of their forces in combat in massive offensive operations. It’s shocking that 2 weeks into the offensive and Russia is still fighting defensive battles and there are no signs of counter attacks in Kursk.

[@davesherry5384]

The hilarious part about your post is that you actually seem to believe it is true.

[@p.informatico1320]

Russia doesn't have a national guard as the US have... you are talking about policemen, who aren't trained for combat situations, and the reserve personnel, who are former soldiers who are too old to be deployed in a combat zone (50+). Russia have lost about 650.000 soldiers in Ukraine, and the number keeps growing.

[@insubordinategoy7466]

​@@p.informatico1320 650 000 is way to high a number they have never had that many troops

[@insubordinategoy7466]

​@@p.informatico1320started the war with 200 000 troops of which only 90 000 would be combat troops

[@LAJAP]

OMG! I never thought I'd see a real unicorn in the wild! They do lead to a lot of taxpayer's money, though!

[@leroyisaac1708]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@weaponizedbattletoaster]

Yo, the best channel on the Ukraine war just uploaded

[@dulguunjargal1199]

Baby vs Lines on Maps Who Wins?

[@barsukascool]

Indeed a good chanel, nevertheless there isn’t much competition

[@weaponizedbattletoaster]

@@barsukascool you could be getting your information from Historylegends so be grateful for lines on maps

[@lisaruhm6681]

@@dulguunjargal1199 What about Power Point presentations and Emutopia?

[@BoliceOccifer]

@@barsukascool you gotta check out Perun

[@WoesteWobbe]

Thanks, as always, for sharing your thoughts. Greetings from The Netherlands (Y)

[@gilgabro420]

dammmn now i really want them to encircle them and expand there border because it will make for a more easily defensible position. This whole operation has been very successful and saving on troops and getting a better negotiating position is kinda hype.

[@tampontim69]

Negotiating? Lol you wanna trade some village in Kursk region for Donbass? I don't think so

[@iGucik]

Putin messed up disbanding wagner and assasinating that guy i will not try to spell out his name lol. Becauze he showed putin how easily a strike force is able to push into russia. And a gave the world a quick eta of how far it can get before reinforcements arrived. I doubt putin learned anythinf from he was tryna make putin understand. That the borders are weak. But putin at the time though it unthinkable. That ukraine could save up enough man power to push. But ukraine pulled an 1940s alaska campaign and made themselfs seem commited to thw front by using usa and german tanks and apcs. To give the illusion of such. Before deciding where to commit too. The raiding forces couldve actually scouted all the possible locations and just used the refinery strikes as ruses to. To make russia think it was trying to hit its wallet. Lol

[@ThomasZukovic]

​​@@tampontim69 And crimea too lol people think negotiating for 1000km² inside russia is a fair deal somehow

[@TorianTammas]

​@@tampontim69 They attack soon again at another surprise spot

[@gilgabro420]

@@tampontim69 Almost all wars end at the negotiating table. This is obviously not enough land to end the war but it's a good development. I really struggle to understand how anyone can misread a comment so much. Only explanation is bad faith.

[@jcdisci]

You're correct that Russia fights better in a planned, step-by-step assault, like a chess game. And HERE is where the lack of an NCO cadre in the Russian army really shows. One thing we were continually taught was to ALWAYS have the ability to improvise, use 'field-expediency', luck, good ideas, WHATEVER it took to accomplish the mission when the unexpected happens. We were trained that the only action plan that didn't change was one never used. We knew if it could go wrong, it probably would and be prepared to improvise. And our NCO's knew how to lead and inspire and GET IT DONE! The Russians have no such NCO cadre and no such training. However, they ARE trained, that in the absence of orders, to DO NOTHING because 'you don't know what is happening and will only screw it up!' THAT's what makes Russia the 2nd best army in Ukraine.

[@marclohnhardt6420]

U mean the second best army in russia

[@apveening]

@@marclohnhardt6420 Third in both cases, even the Salvation Army is better organized.

[@marclohnhardt6420]

@@apveening u got a point there

[@PeterLorimer-ji5ut]

In a politically authoritarian country doing nothing and not being responsible for what happens is the safest route.

[@BarryGee-pm6rv]

If you believe that you are not only out of date but a fool as well. The Russian army has just outgunned and outwitted the whole of NATO. It's over bar the shouting.

[@jakegarvin7634]

10:14 your tone of voice is the happiest thing I've experienced all day

[@alexanderbusch8014]

"Unless of course, it is a man named Miles." Me, in my head: "Miles O´Brien!" Well, would be fitting for him, to be cought in one of most brutal wars in that decade, for "character development"

[@fatalshore5068]

Let's hope there is no Miles O'Brien in that lot. He'll have some kind of engineering marvel in place by morning.

[@digitalnomad9985]

No wonder he doesn't like Cardassians.

[@rackstraw]

"O'BRIEN MUST SUFFER!" - Ronald D. Moore

[@Gametheory101]

In season 41 of DS9, the "O'Brien goes through hell episode" is set in Russia!

[@TheYear2525]

@@Gametheory101 Your puns, man. I love them xD .

[@thepax2621]

"A touch of HIMARS..."😅 Sounds like a recipe and Ukraine is cooking 🙈

[@MrCABman1972]

Yeah... no... the bridges has not been destroyed by HIMARS. They used gliding bombs, HIMARS are not suitable to destroy bridges. It is just sad that everytime something go boom then HIMARS did it... that is not good reporting even if you are on the right side.

[@alexguolo5872]

Thank god for twitter so you trolls cant keep spreading fake news

[@xiaosenxie2774]

NATO is providing targeting solutions for those himars. Let's not be naive and pretend that this isn't a proxy war.

[@robertgarzotto2905]

The Ukrainians have lost. What a clown

[@g_eddie]

Ah yes, a man named Miles, but what about Isles named Man?

[@MatthewGeglua-b5m]

I love this this channel because it has explained very well. Keep it up

[@QVW]

Thank you for your coverage on this. Your videos are way more in-depth and interesting than the news coverage.

[@enricogattone432]

Ok, that's kind of a low bar, but I totally agree 😅

[@kieranelliott5607]

They show the value of carefully setting out the topic to be discussed in an ordered way. I remember the significant points way more than most such videos.

[@73chengosaro4]

@@kieranelliott5607 it depend on your taste for stale biased reporting -- to many people the Guy is pathetic

[@codyg6057]

"You see here, this line, that's what is all about" love your stuff!

[@F.R.E.D.D2986]

Just to clear it up, yes, that gap has not existed in the last week, ISW reports that the river has been reached since last week and now, those troops are technically cut off. Not crippling but not a good time for Russia.

[@seanmellows1348]

Excellent work as always, thanks.

[@QVW]

5:20 I didn't expect a Fortnite comparison 😂

[@DarkLordFromTheSecondAge]

Explaining it in fortnite terms

[@admiralrng6506]

its for the zoomer audience

[@UpperCumberlandGamers]

@admiralrng6506 you know that (by some definitions) the oldest zoomer was born in 1995?

[@madmantheepic7278]

@@admiralrng6506 Zoomers have entered the workforce for a few years now...

[@apveening]

And mentioning it twice while saying he will only mention it once ;)

[@JimBanksy]

Love and Support from Bonny Scotland!!

[@JimBanksy]

[@FSXNOOB]

serious topics, mixed with humor, great job 😆

[@timowagner1329]

Did not expect a fortinite comparison 😂😂😂 Great video, most comprehensive (in my eyes) video on the Kursk offensive

[@lydiazafra3476]

Ty William, as always bright analysis ❤from USA citizen on vacation in Philippines

[@ryangooseling]

Will it work? My dad used to ask us kids this regularly. "Will what work?" "A rudder on a ducks butt" I'm eager to see how far Ukraine will be able to push this. I oive the potential of this new strategy.

[@CarlMartin-hw3ev]

Stay tuned and don't ever get bored.

[@declanosullivan2554]

Excellent analysis as always, thanks , enjoyed the humour too

[@carolynhorn6347]

"soldiers called miles" LOL. Looking forward to the third book...

[@johnboardman4820]

Excellent. Love your dry sense of humor. Thank you for keeping up informed

[@chrissheppard3023]

I honestly can't see any plan from Russia only noise, I think Ukraine will make the northern and eastern fronts as secure as they can and push south in the Belgorod direction thus creating a vertical line on the map

[@knoll9812]

Would like to see but don't think they have the resources. Belgorod major logistics hub

[@augustuslunasol10thapostle]

@@knoll9812 belgorod is a major resource hub yes……. With one rail line

[@war-painter]

Russians provide humor and clown show in this war. They are the entertainment!

[@michaelotieno6524]

Instead Ukraine decided to advance backwards from Kursk

[@johnlacroix1639]

WOW amazing TY so much ,,Keep up the great work,

[@jasonpednault465]

This channel is epic. Thanks brother; mad respect.

[@wimdejong5399]

I like your reporting William. Thanks!

[@FrancescoNavara]

Today Ukraine is not the 2022 Ukraine who did not had any weapons at all. Today Ukraine is a tough military.

[@noel3830]

Nato had trained a powerful army by 2022 that was murdering thousands in Donetsk by shelling markets hospitals and schools!

[@alexanderrobins7497]

Putin could have taken Ukraine if launch the full scale invasion in 2014, but he could have kept the status quo going indefinitely like the Korean War. He chose the worst time to get greedy and could permanently cripple russia for it.

[@EugeneTChu]

Ukraine does receive western aid, but is using it very effectively.

[@will_dikfit2975]

Yeah, now it's very different kzbin.info/www/bejne/fZ3LiJ5ngaqUfbssi=79Q8RF19V2UCJ0cV

[@will_dikfit2975]

@@FrancescoNavara kzbin.info/www/bejne/fZ3LiJ5ngaqUfbssi=79Q8RF19V2UCJ0cV

[@BasedPatriot403]

I'm always amazed by your analysis and accompanying explanations; They're so much better than anything I get from the talking various heads. Thank you for doing this important work!

[@jamesodell3064]

I would guess that a lot of Russian POWs would prefer to stay POWs rather then be sent back to the front.

[@allankvist6741]

Ive wondered if they have that choice.

[@Ofasia777]

@@allankvist6741 Sadly for them, no. They are POW currency.

[@PosthumousAddress]

​@@Ofasia777 They are allowed to defect to Ukraine rather than be returned, although some are forcibly returned given Ukraine needs POWiki to exchange

[@johnboardman4820]

Thank you William. I'm going to buy your books to help support your channel. I'm sure they will be as good as your excellent videos

[@tomwilliams7773]

This was my first time viewing your channel. Half way into this video, I hit the like button and subscribed to your channel. As a retired High School; teacher, I recognize outstanding presentation of material to an audience. I applaud your work and look forward to future videos!

[@RizzenMurray]

All, and I truly mean ALL, of his material is at this level. It's remarkable.

[@Ged-m8v]

Very informative

[@Merrinen]

I could see that miles joke coming kilometers away.

[@SYRIANALPECHI]

can we appreciate that double entendre at 4:32? damn that was a good line.

[@thomasbosworth8013]

First time Fortnite is mentioned? Sure. Last time? I wouldn't be so sure...

[@shtBlock]

6 days since this video came out, how is the encirclement going?

[@jaariyana6775]

Did they encircled or still doing Ramba dance.

[@michaelschuette1743]

William you are brilliant im thankful for finding your youtube channel thank you for keeping us updated on this very important topic..

[@mysteriousfox88]

meats back on the menu boys

[@popeye82]

Bg3?

[@thugai8150]

​@@popeye82 Lord of the Rings I think.

[@GNCD2099]

you don't like maggotty bread?

[@andrewrockwell1282]

Miles back on the menu?

[@nunogoncalves1802]

Dumn dum duuuum... DUN DUN DUN.

[@karlgrimm3027]

After 2 years Moscow has become unable to adapt to new circumstances. They have been unable to respond the Russian soldiers will all be captured.

[@livingadreamlife1428]

90% don’t want to be there, and will bail if given the chance.

[@Byzantine-Revolt]

They have adapted you can even see it in Kursk where Ukrainian DRGs get ambushed by small Russians units similar to Ukraine during the initial stages of the war. Also both sides have captured a lot of soldiers Kursk seems to be a complete circus of a battlefield with Russian's friendly firing & men being all over the shop.

[@Mewanrahnam575]

Russia is winning

[@alexanderrobins7497]

@@Mewanrahnam575 Source: RT

[@aymenyahyaoui1771]

​@@alexanderrobins7497 or maybe the fact that yesterday russia captured nui yurk , 1/3 of tortsek and now they are 15 km from pkrovsk and still pushing in donbas

[@warpaintjj]

Thank you fella 👏

[@-xDarkxGhostx-]

I'm proud of the Russians who decide not to fight and surrender. I hope the Ukrainians can show them some mercy and not commit war crimes out of anger.

[@knoll9812]

Evidence si far is that Ukrainians are applying western standards and not Russia

[@fackgugle6497]

Isn`t it a strategy of Ukraine to treat POWs nicely and so that other russian soildiers would be happy to surrender too instead of dying hungry and cold in a muddy trench

[@SamuelKoepke-r3o]

@fackgoogle6497 Yes, and it should be fairly easy considering how poor the standard of life is in Russia, let alone the Russian Army. It’s the same thing the British did with German POWs during WW2, and we know from that that it works.

[@orrrlllyy3473]

​@@SamuelKoepke-r3oyou live in russia to make those statements? Or you got your source from cnn?

[@phoenix-lq9pd]

​@orrrlllyy3473 you must be american to feel insulted over what he said 😅😂😂 5 bucks says you like the LGBT and yell black lives matter lmao

[@Xcyiterr]

I'm so glad we finally have another silly part after the outro to the video again, I miss watching those

[@empty6674]

Cayman Islands mentioned 🗣️🔥🔥🔥

[@ArchefluxxMusic]

Brilliant video, Mayor Quimby

[@keithromersenior155]

Bill we appreciate your work

[@stansbornak8116]

More lines on maps! More graphs! More charts!

[@mutteringmale]

I always remember Ross Perot running for pres and his speeches full of maps and statistics, and his "NAFTA, the giant sucking sound of jobs going to mexico". And he got almost 20% of all votes cast!

[@CanadianEhHole]

@@mutteringmale It's stupid how our debates are just rhetoric matches. Not being able to show/use quickly read graphs, stats, etc. is so asinine. "Here's the political event that has the largest amount of the electorate watching every single time we have one, let's force politicians to speak in snippets, with no materials, no visuals, and we're only going to hold like 3 each election, none of them topic specific, even if the public has 6-7 key issues they're worried about right now" It's so crazy pretending like small town events are the proper way to hold campaign elections.

[@mutteringmale]

@@CanadianEhHole That's why Ross Perot used real statistics, and liberals absolutely hate statistics. Just take crime, intelligence, baby deaths, and much more and they run shrieking to their filthy lairs and slobber in anger and raging hatred, tearing pictures of Trump into little shreds and then urinating on the littered mess on the floor leaving it for their maids to clean up later.

[@war-painter]

Ai and Chat GPT can do graphs and charts. Only humans can provide narrative and context. Dont put humans out of business.

[@ohppig1]

from recent satellite photos, the Seim is very twisty in that part, with lots of oxbows and small lakes, which implies it is marshy, or at best floodplain that will turn to mud here shortly if Ukraine gets a normal winter.

[@rlmrdl]

Exactly, the "width" of the barrier would be better calculated by drawing a trend line through the curves, adding a bit to the extremes and calling that "the Seym", while realising that any movement through that space can only be on existing roads, which, given parts of them are probably berms, embankments, small bridges etc, can probably be deleted with a few GMLRS, then there is General Mud

[@DarknessDShadow]

great book plug as always

[@AndrewDeer-x9s]

Love your content, i would love to see a video about the resources and attrition of the two countries compared. "If I win one more battle I won't have a single soldier left" I'm pretty sure Hannibal said this. I wonder if Ukraine is threatened by a similiar situation.

[@jackgraves5121]

Manpower is a concern. But Ukraine lowered the draft age to 25, as they don't wish to wipe out the next generation. But if they feel the need, and have the ability to ward off any public/political opposition, they could go below 25. So there is still a pool to possibly be drawn upon. I hope it's not necessary.💙💙💙🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@ThomasZukovic]

​@@jackgraves5121 problem is once ukraines already bad demographics gets worse, rebuilding ukraine will be even more difficult. Remember that ukraine lost an eye-wateringly staggering number of people in the beginning of the conflict when millions fled the county and an additional million left to avoid conscription eversince. And there is no sign of them wanting to return ever in the forseeable future according to many polls.

[@apveening]

@@ThomasZukovic While there is a demographic problem, it is definitely not insurmountable. The losses are mostly male and relatively small under women of childbearing age and younger. Encouraging immigration of single men from friendly countries with a male surplus will do a lot.

[@CanadianEhHole]

> "If I win one more battle I won't have a single soldier left" I'm pretty sure Hannibal said this. You're thinking of Pyrrhus of Epirus, hence the term Pyrrhic victory which is to win but suffer so much that it was like losing. Pyrrhus beat Rome 2 or 3 times and then said something along the lines of "If I win one more battle my kingdom will be ruined." Resource-wise, Ukraine has more because it's constantly being funded and armed by others, including the US which still has great military production to replace losses. Troops-wise, Ukraine has much less. They keep revising their conscription limits to make up for this while the early stages of the war Russia used a lot of prisoners-turned-soldiers to fight the war. Wagner was given permission to recruit from prisons and the Russian deaths during Bakhmut came mostly from this prison population. The issue is, even if Ukraine wins, they will not really have a fully native population to repopulate the area with. They're most likely going to see a mass immigration movement funded by the EU and WEF.

[@CanadianEhHole]

@@apveening > Encouraging immigration of single men from friendly countries with a male surplus will do a lot. Be realistic, they're going to get the immigration that Europe is already revolting against. Ukraine is done. Even if they win, it's lost, all because Boris Johnson and other world leaders forced Zelensky to not sign a peace deal early on.

[@richarddarcy6945]

We always enjoy. AFU media efforts at recording each step makes efficient use of small resources. It makes a record of war crimes, war rules compliance and provides defense against propaganda.

[@jdmaine51084]

Damn. Looking at the map and seeing the strategy, all these days later... it reminds me why I suck at Hearts of Iron IV.

[@Joesolo13]

Russia's been playing like an AI for most of the war. Little particular intelligent operation, just overriding numbers and broad offensives. The early war where they pushed far beyond their supply lines, just to be driven way back to roughly where they are now.

[@TheWorldWarrior]

@@Joesolo13 I'm curious how Russia will perform the more they push inside Ukraine. Ultimately Ukraine has the homefield advantage of being able to fortify, defend and retreat to new positions. Having that advantage automatically will make the damage efficiency more effective as long as of course they make sure to do the "retreat" part. Ukraine utilized the weakness at Kursk to take foothold of more positions they can fortify. The deeper Russia pushing into Ukraine essentially means longer and longer logistical travel. I don't see a possibility of Russia pushing all the way through. This isn't WW2 or WW1 economically countries don't have a way to utilize as many foot soldiers as they did back then. Also Russian soldiers aren't fighting for their survival. They are fighting to fight. Ukraine on the other hand is fighting for its survival. I simply don't see how Russia can maintain any logistical supply routes the deeper they push into Ukraine. The deeper they go the easier it is to collapse logistic trucks and delay supplies which is devastating to the survival of troops.

[@CanadianEhHole]

@@Joesolo13 > just overriding numbers and broad offensives Welcome to the eastern front in any war since post-Napoleon. The Ukrainians fought the same way early on, up to and including Bakhmut.

[@comentedonakeyboard]

The "Exchange Fund" metaphore is also a neat way to comunicate that (and why) the humane treatment of POWs is of importance.

[@Supermarine_Spitfire321]

My question is: "Was it worth it?" It seems that ukrainian forces is mostly stopped. Next they will be bombed back in a stone age and will have to rollback. So, when they will finally roll back behind russian border, there will be question: "What was achieved and was it worth it?" From my point of view i see 2 possible objectives for UA: 1: better position at upcoming peace talks (and Russia stopped peace talks because of kursk offensive) 2. Pulling russian reserves out of dombass to halt russian offensive (Russia did not pulled them out and continues offensive) So, what's the point? And was it worth it?

[@WallachiaTacos]

ukraine has been fighting nothing but inexperienced conscripts and border guards so far, when russian reinforcements arrive, i fear the ukrainian offensive will come to a standstill.

[@michaelotieno6524]

It was not worth it BUT the headlines were nice

[@CraigFoster-ue5up]

Nice video!

[@nottheguru]

For those wondering, the reason why Ukrainian units work better under chaotic conditions is because Americans trained them. Nothing like getting the fifty war tribes in a trenchcoat in the coaching chair to bring out the Fortnite dances.

[@knoll9812]

I thought almost all training in Europe by NATO forces. USA providing Bradleys and missiles. Possible special services training.

[@BiggestCorvid]

Big Willy bringing the hot takes

[@thepax2621]

"Seym Bridges are falling down, falling down, falling down... Seym Bridges are falling down My fair Vladimir Built them again with pontoon blocks..." 😅

[@JacobO-y9m]

Exactly 💯 💯 💯 💯

[@Hokieredneck]

I bet anyone under 45 won't get the London Bridge ref

[@thepax2621]

​@@HokieredneckHey, there's a chance 😅 I'm in my 20's 🤷🏻‍♀️ It all depends

[@FadedRoseStoriesFairyTales]

I am so stealing that!

[@FadedRoseStoriesFairyTales]

@@HokieredneckIt is still in Mother Goose Rhymes. 😎

[@LeordRedhammer]

Making a comment to help with engagement. :) Thanks for great videos.

[@melvillesperryn9268]

This hasn't aged well

[@michaelotieno6524]

I know

[@bradstewart1996]

You say the funniest things without even trying hahah I love your videos William keep up the great work!

[@plschwartzx]

There is a strong faction in Europe who actually want the overthrow of Putin. I believe that is Zalensky's aim. When the Kursk incursion is seen from this position,it has a different function. It is the first move toward that aim.

[@ogrimcc8579]

Zelensky has no say at all. He was put in place by Victoria Newland. This video is total BS. Do you really think this man has access to Russian Federation military intelligence, or knowledge of Russian Federation military logistic capability. LOL.

[@kickedwhendown247]

Holding ground is hard, but leaving one retreat option is a gamble.

[@bat2293]

I am always entertained by your segues at the end of each video into a plug for your books. Hasn't moved the "line" far enough for me to buy your books though. (See what I did there:)

[@ironl4nd]

segways

[@bat2293]

​@@ironl4nd Dictionary Definitions from Oxford Languages · se·gue /ˈseˌɡwā,ˈsāˌɡwā/ verb 3rd person present: segues (in music and film) move without interruption from one piece of music or scene to another. "allow one song to segue into the next" noun plural noun: segues an uninterrupted transition from one piece of music or film scene to another.

[@johnboardman4820]

The books are the guys income. Im.going to buy them

[@johnboardman4820]

L

[@nathan9903]

If ukraine can continue to keep the pontoon bridges down after destorying the main bridges those russians may have a bad time

[@Joesolo13]

Himars and Drones can still wreak havoc on pontoons, even if they're easier to rebuild afterwards.

[@peterflohr7827]

The river is within artillery range. So building pontoons is basically throwing them away.

[@wohsedisbob1198]

Playback speed 1.25 Love the content though. Great work!

[@joycekoch5746]

HIMARS are terrible. I had HIMARS a few years back and I could barely sit anywhere without pain.

[@Mashmans]

Someone from Fortnight who is reading this please offer this man a lucrative sponsorship deal for his high quality content 👌. Nah, in all seriousness, I've been following this conflict on this Chanel and a few others. The information on battle strategy has been invaluable for call of war game play. It has made me realise how strategically important the Black Sea is, and how easily wars can start over resources and freedom of movement. Is it because human nature is to fight, or that higher-ups inflame division between us to sell military weapons and play war games? All the Russian citizens want is an end to their country's youtube censorship so they can relax and watch the Ants Canada channel.

[@cyruslupercal9493]

Thry will have to leave equipment behind.

[@CarlMartin-hw3ev]

Lot's of it.

[@EugeneTChu]

Ukraine captured some equipment along with Russian POWs.

[@zonehd3433]

Does anyone think that the Dnper will freeze enough this winter, to allow Ukrainian or Russian troops to cross the Dnper?

[@pattycakesdookieface1353]

If its a running river probably not. Moving water can't freeze.

[@grzlbr]

@@pattycakesdookieface1353 Really? There are clowns everywhere

[@bc-guy852]

Consistently valuable and enjoyable content. Thank you William!

[@stefanskoko2325]

great video

[@macklyn]

Great videos, thanks!!

[@alowry2002]

Thank you.

[@LeCharles07]

Let's assume everyone is named Miles. Miles can be the "spherical cow" of lines on maps.

[@frankgulla2335]

Thank you, William, for this update about the Ukrainian invasion of Russia. What is the latest on Ukraine making use of NATO F-16s?

[@SuperMagnum2011]

Thank you William. Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@bremnersghost948]

With the Rasputitsa due to arrive in 6-10 weeks, whatever the Frontlines are when it starts will stay till static till at least the first freeze, Which side will advance after the freeze is going to be interesting!

[@elizabethlestrad5282]

I just wonder if they wouldn't have been better off pushing north and getting within striking distance of Red Square?

[@knoll9812]

Would need ten times the force

[@apveening]

@@knoll9812 A small, stealthy detachment might do.

[@legrandfromage6450]

A handful of brigades with no air cover are going to push all the way to Moscow? It's possible - they only have 500 km or so to go.

[@tscott6843]

Excellent.

[@charlessaint7926]

The trapped Russian soldiers see a WWII German soldier in the trench with them. The Heer soldaten smiles, "First time?"

[@SamuelKoepke-r3o]

Makes me wonder what Russia’s “Courland” will be.

[@concept5631]

​@@SamuelKoepke-r3o Sevastapol?

[@nicknellany2336]

I like your Programme, particularly as you sound like Steve Buscemi 🙂

[@srikanthvallipuram7050]

🤣🤣🤣🤣👍 after two months... No such dilemma..

[@sifridbassoon]

do you do your own visuals? They are always very good.

[@Spoon80085]

I think it's interesting to point out the long term affects of this war on the cohesion of the states fighting it. 10 years ago, Ukraine was an unstable, new nation, with dubious odds as to forming a national identity and not becoming another post-Colonial rump state. Russia was an oligarchic mess that more resembled an imitation of the Soviet Union than anything else. In the push for Kiev, we saw Russian soldiers abandon vehicles and sell fuel, and Ukrainian soldiers fight with patriotism. As the war has continued, it seems like Russian soldiers have also grown more competent and patriotic. I also have a strong suspicion that Putin has used this war as an opportunity to retch power from the nation's oligarchs, as *many* generals have died, and his high level cabinet has changed a lot. When this war ends, (which if I had to bet would probably be something approaching a return to status quo, probably with some Ukrainian concessions territory wise) I think both Ukraine and Russia will emerge as stronger nations, Ukraine especially. Ukraine has struggled with their demographics since the fall of the Soviet Union, with their birth rate simply being too low to sustain their current population. However, if they win or fight to a stalemate, I bet the Ukrainian people will have hope in the future way more, and experience a baby boom. It's way harder to say what will happen with Russia, since they are somewhat of a blackbox politically, but it'll either be with Putin cemented as their leader, or with some major shake-up politcally.

[@knoll9812]

Oligarchs are there with Putin blessing. A few anti Putin oligarchs are now dead or exiled. Russia is not getting stronger as a people. On the flip side Putin has turned Ukraine into a slight western country to a duegard anti Russia country.

[@bigredinfinity3126]

Targeting substations instead of the nuclear reactor itself is a strategic move that could have significant effects. By disrupting the power supply to major iron and metal factories, you can cripple the production of steel and other materials vital to the enemy's war effort. This approach minimizes the risk of a nuclear disaster while still achieving a substantial impact on the enemy's infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities. It's a calculated tactic that could lead to a prolonged disruption in the enemy's supply chain, potentially affecting their ability to sustain the war effort over time.