How Scientists Can Avoid Cognitive Bias

Cognitive biases have received some attention in recent years, thanks to books like “Thinking Fast and Slow,” “You Are Not So Smart, or “Blind Spot.” Unfortunately, this knowledge has not been put into action in scientific research. Scientists do correct for biases in statistical analysis of data and they do correct for biases in their measurement devices, but they still do not correct for biases in the most important apparatus that they use: Their own brain.
In this video, I tell you what cognitive biases are, what problems they cause in science, and what scientists can do against it.
I have further suggestions for how you can help in the appendix of my book, which you can read here:
backreaction.blogspot.com/2019...
Support me on Patreon: / sabine

[@MoebiusUK]

This is super important information to remember for scientists and non scientists. Everything you mention here can be applied to our daily lives.

[@suicidalanimal1005]

That will ruin your daily live as you know it.

[@bob-c702]

Excellent video! I wonder if this important information is able to seep through people's egos, and basic fears? Hmmm..

[@WestOfEarth]

I see strong examples of cognitive biases in a scientific interest of mine. Namely, archaeology / anthropology of 10,000 to 12,000 years B.P. Despite growing evidence that some sort of large meteor or comet hit the Earth causing the Younger Dryas cooling, the 'old guard' of academia refuses to address the evidence in a serious way. They dismiss it as crack-pot science, rather than trying to find reconciliation between their theories and the newer evidence arriving on the scene. But dig sites like Gobekli Tepe (re-discovered by an excellent German archaeologist), Big Eddy site in Missouri, are pushing back dates for civilization or organized living. Geologists are finding platinum layers corresponding to the impact date. And even as a interested observer, I can see the biases kicking in with each new article that comes out.

[@locutusdborg126]

Agree.

[@charlesbrightman4237]

Scientists and their cognitive bias: Modern science's current narrative is that everything in existence, including the very forces of nature that this universe exists and functions by, all came from an expanding singularity. But now, does everything in existence even exist per se, OR does ONLY the singularity exist in the form of all things? Cognitive bias?

[@WestOfEarth]

I wonder how many people watching this are saying to themselves: "yeah, those 'other' guys should change their viewpoint because mine is correct." When instead they should be saying: "Let me start with a clean slate on topic X, and look at the evidence and data with new eyes."

[@SabineHossenfelder]

This!

[@ryancormack6934]

Steelman your opponents arguments, rather than strawman them. This is how to really understand the topic well.

[@mb-3faze]

4:02 - referring to string theory, perhaps? :)

[@juanausensi499]

Our hands are made to handle sticks, but they can play the piano with enough training. Our brain is not a 'truth-finder' per se. The brain, like the hand, is a tool for survival. If believing something that is true increases the chances of survival, then the brain will believe the truth. If believing something that is false increases those chances, then it will believe the lie. In order to use your brain as a 'truth-finder', you need to train it.

[@aBradApple]

@@juanausensi499 Nice! Sounds like a Rehabilitation Specialist has entered the chat.

[@danielsteel5251]

For reference: 0:45 Definition of Cognitive Bias 2:25 Ex: Attentional Bias 4:40 Ex: Loss Aversion Bias 4:15 Ex: Social Reinforcement Bias 4:55 Ex: Shared Information Bias

[@ivanfromunion3513]

Should be pinned!

[@yt.personal.identification]

4:15 Circle jerk

[@freech2]

Right on! I am sending to my daughter who is applying to grad school.

[@Twelfth512]

@rrobertt13 can you elaborate?

[@Twelfth512]

@rrobertt13 will you?

[@mikelouis9389]

@@Twelfth512 Doubtful.

[@maxm2639]

In other words, it was a stupid thing to say by a guy with poor social skills..

[@madderhat5852]

The most important topic facing humanity today.

[@ofdrumsandchords]

is called stupidity.

[@madderhat5852]

@Varun Rao You could be correct. or...

[@KuK137]

@@ofdrumsandchords Or more succinctly, right wingers/conservatives. But then again, they are stupid and/or greedy anyway, sooo...

[@adeeperbluegreen]

Truth starts with accepting that it may not be politically or even personally accommodating.

[@craig2493]

Sabine is a warrior of clarity and honesty.

[@jelly-johnbobster2283]

Watching you think is my favorite thing to do on the Internet.. Thank you, Sabine.

[@eatthisvr6]

forget scientists, this needs to be taught in SCHOOLS!!!!

It is you ignoramus.

[@eatthisvr6]

@ the political landscape demonstrates otherwise

[@saitren565]

Yeah, let state paid instructors indoctrinate the children how they should think. Giving more power to the enforcers of conformism will save science and humanity!!!

[@eatthisvr6]

@@saitren565 what are you talking about? Children should be taught to question everything. Thats the most effective way to aquire reliable knowledge. If you want closed minded indoctrination then you need religion not science

[@saitren565]

@@eatthisvr6 I am talking about the chances of children learning such a message in school. In most western countries schools are controlled by the state. States have no incentive whatsoever to create a critical public. The actions of a state reflect the interests and preferences of the elites who control that state. Explain why they would want to push for a critical public? My proposal is much simpler: parents should tell their children that scientists are not semi-gods and that they are subject to all the pettiness that everybody is capable of. No need for schools to be involved in this. Schools are themselves training camps for the amplification of cognitive biases.

[@toma5153]

I've had a personal interest in cognitive biases for a while. More like a hobby that arose from leading engineering and quality assurance groups. I'd like to refer people to the Wikipedia listing "List of cognitive biases". It's amazing how many different kinds there are.

[@MaryAnnNytowl]

Great video, and yes, VERY important - in regular, everyday life, too!

[@fraemme9379]

Thank you Sabine, your videos are all very interesting, but this one in particular to me, because as a recently graduated PhD student, I have already been always discouraged to change topic (although I partially managed to do it) or to follow some new ideas because they were "exotic" or "too strange"... I feel this is a real problem in today's scientific research!

[@jimcarpenter965]

Outstanding. Sabine is the best thing to happen to science in decades.

[@patrickmchargue7122]

I see so many examples of what you describe in society today. Of special note is when the media encourages group-think using attentional bias as a tool.

[@ghaderortakand6027]

Need reminding this quite regularly and widely.

[@cymoonrbacpro9426]

Humility and honesty is necessary in order to find the truth, scientific or otherwise.

[@cameronidk2]

Wow! i've been watching your video's for about 3 months.. The depth of your videos is so thick that i usually only watch one a week and try to digest what it is your presenting .. even watching the same video many times .. how ironic and so important that you tackle this problem

[@Ni8mR]

I am not from the science community, but I can relate this video with almost every hot topic trending around me. Especially, about group thinking, I was aware that it is the main source of comfort amongst common people, and now I know that it can hurt our scientific progress as well. Thanks for the video!

[@davew4998]

Thank you Sabine. Another excellent video, and if I may say an excellent delivery.

[@abmbarry]

Thank you Sabine for taking your wisdom to the masses. You are always engaging.

[@user-ck6yl6qb2g]

So important! What a rigorous and intelligent breakdown. Your voice of reason is refreshing and I hope you'll be heard more.

[@gerrymcerlean8432]

This is, by far, the most interesting of your videos I have watched. This topic applies to almost all aspects of life. Thank you, Sabine.

[@markgoretsky766]

Cristal clear, brilliant delivery on the topic that is relevant to both contemporary science and beyond - to political/economic systems. Gratitude, Sabine!

[@RagdollRocket]

that's the most important topic to prevent dogmatism in science in my opinion. Thank's for another great and free video!

[@dallinsprogis4363]

Very enlightening video Sabine! Excellent work.

[@academicalisthenics]

Thank you so much, I always struggled explaining what a cognitive bias is and how it works, after watching your video I feel empowered to explain this to my family and friends! Love your videos, you're contributing more than it may seem. Videos like these shaped my life and career decisions. Keep up the amazing work!

[@djdtahoe]

Yeah but turn her upside down and she's got a lambda around her neck

[@florinadrian5174]

Someone has no visual biases.

[@djdtahoe]

I'm still functional though

[@bkbland1626]

@@djdtahoe Somewhat, at least. People usually don't like it when turned upside down.

[@malekmannai9445]

Yeah 🕶 Give this man a middle 👏

[@kafkasfriend7874]

OMG! She is a closet lisp coder! Yes!!!

[@dsc4178]

So much science fits what you say. 'Transitioning' hormones and surgery, food science, studying genetics in autism syndrome, doing no work on grassroots studies of Parkinson's, on and on and on.

[@nama5257]

It is important in many different walks of life to be aware of this cognitive bias. Thankfully it is now openly discussed under non technical skills for surgeons in general.

[@suicidalanimal1005]

I've known this for quite a while now. There was once a great scientist, I can't remember his name right now, but he taught me to be sceptical about everything. In fact he taught me the word "Skeptical".

[@CheapHomeTech]

I'm likely to watch this video many times. I will also follow the link you included above to your blog. So thank you for helping me to help myself on this topic. Finally, congratulations on crossing the 50K subscriber count before the end of the year!

[@ivanfromunion3513]

I've been about to say that for a week and you beat me to it! Grrrrr...😥 CONGRATS, DR. HOSSENFELDER!!!

[@alexdevisscher6784]

Thanks! This is a great post. Talking about cognitive bias in science without giving fodder to the widespread anti-science sentiments is a delicate balance. You navigated this very well.

[@abhijitborah]

Thank you Sabine, for creating this gem.

[@elultimopujilense]

I just love this channel. Good, unbiased information is hard to come by. Thank you so much!

[@kensmith5694]

Are you quite sure it is unbiased. If so, start to worry.

[@elultimopujilense]

@@kensmith5694 deep... i mean, you are right, we are all biased. But at least this channel is aware of that.

[@huwphillips2696]

This is weird, I've read 2 out of 3 of the books in the beginning of the video, I quite often think about cognitive biases but it all goes out of the window when you get me on to politics. That's not the only subject i get caught up in cognitive biases but it stands out for me. I'm not one to comment on videos but this is good. The only problem is that I can listen to this kinds stuff all day but when i get out into the real world I fall back on confirmation bias, group think, strawman fallacy, etc. Thanks Sabine, you make me think and not trust my intuition. Keep making the challenging videos, your fantastic.

[@Ukepa]

Very thoughtful (and timely) segment... thank you!

[@blueckaym]

That's excellent video! Really underrated topic. I guess that not everybody's comfortable with discussing. Also one of the reasons I liked Neil deGrasse Tyson's masterclass is that he focused really on the biases in science.

[@6NBERLS]

Most excellent. It's such a pleasure to listen to this lady speak.

[@sacriptex5870]

Sean Carroll talked about you on his last podcast, you are getting more and more famous! thats shows your firm positions and courage will prevail after all! Keep the good work fraulein Sabine!

[@fabiocaetanofigueiredo1353]

Spectacular video Sabine 👏👏👏

[@richardduke9788]

Scientists should encourage, and accept, criticism and differing opinions . Very well presented video.

[@Artman1]

Science doesn't care about anyone's opinion until they have done the exhaustive research to support that opinion.

[@AburtoAl]

Thank you! A very important topic for scientists but also everyone!! This should be talked and discussed early in life!

[@RoulDukeGonzo]

Thank you. Detected a note of personal sadness in there. Huge respect to your work.

[@wamdn]

This is one of the best presentations by Sabine or any other scientist or 'scientist' I've heard since James Tour's lectures on OoL (Origin of Life) research. Both are a must listen with serious contemplation of what is being said.

[@paulkohl9267]

Excellent topic. Keep fighting the good fight Sabine.

[@stenkarasin2091]

A very important point that should be kept in mind by all of us especially in an argument or debate.

[@Feinrizulwur]

Wonderful Sabine!

[@LearningWithSuj]

Excellent video! I’ve encountered cognitive bias (and engaged in this at times) in all areas of life. If we understand this behavior better, we become better equipped to tackle challenges effectively. Thank you for all that you do, Sabine! I hope you get 10 million subscribers!

[@ZenDude65]

That was an amazing video, Thanks Sabine.

[@__-1234]

This is a very good speech, but mostly a (very relevant) critic of the research system rather than of cognitive biases.

[@yellowNred]

Great info. Btw, almost 50k subscriptions. Well deserved.

[@csvegso]

The most useful science related video I watched on youtube in 2019. Unfortunately, youtube allows clicking thumbs up only once per video.

[@TheBlindGuardian20]

This can apply to so many things in science currently. Medicine, climate, any research topic really. It really can apply to anything in the world or anybody on a personal level. Thank you so much for mentioning group think unfortunately it seems as though that has been on the rise in its quite tightening. I love this video

[@PeterManger]

I think it's important to apply a humility to one's work - as pride can often block an ability to accept a bias has occurred.

[@Andrewlohbihler]

Good points to remember. Thanks Sabine.

[@dennistucker1153]

#Sabine, this subject matter is one of your best. I complete agree with you. Thank you for your work on this video.

[@BuckTravis]

Bravo! Case in point: Hollywood. There are few movies made that have any real content. The good screenwriters were lost when they went on strike and were all fired. As a result we get reality shows and remakes of old successful stories recast for an audience that is unaware of the source of the script. Coupled with the groupthink that Hollywood and California should be telling us what to think and what the future should be, we are paralyzed and heading for the bottom. Many thanks to you and to your team for the outstanding content and presentations. You are a breath of fresh air and inspiration. See you next week. ❤️

[@mheermance]

What's weird is you would think losing $100 million+ on several remakes (e.g. Ben Hur, Men in Black, Terminator) would make them understand that they need to change. But year after year they repeat the same behavior.

[@juerbert1]

Well stated, Sabine !

[@nareshkapil7075]

Very Very Good 👍 Information Sabine!

[@bhangrafan4480]

The competition between rival research groups in the same field is so important to prevent science going off the rails. The social, cultural and incentive processes in the scientific community can lead to serious error. During the short ten years in scientific research (in life sciences) I spent I saw serious problems of selection bias. Researchers would accept result that fitted what they wanted and rejected those that did not. Those experiments which did not fit were said to have 'gone wrong' and negative results were ignored. Statistical analysis then applied to the chosen few results which fitted made the strength of the theory look much greater than it probably was. The problem is the incentives are all to produce positive results. You get no rewards for disproving someone else's idea, but great rewards for being the person who came up with the 'right theory'. You have not 'discovered' anything if you spend your life undermining or disproving popular hypotheses. The result is that scientists tend to find what they look for and this happens almost imperceptibly as a result of daily biases in their work. Thus it is only really the determination of one research group to undermine another that prevents everyone joining on the same bandwagon. I saw plenty of evidence for the existence of such 'bandwagons', you can all it 'group think'. In fact I do not know the reference but meta-research has been done which has shown the emergence of popular hypotheses and concepts around which there is a burst of work at one point in history, then looking backwards little more is ever heard about the 'Great Idea', it just 'goes out of fashion' and makes no long term difference to the field.

[@ryancormack6934]

Well articulated. Thanks for sharing this!

[@DCFusor]

Content like this is a reason I unhesitatingly recommend your videos to my amateur science friends and readers. Thanks, Sabine!

[@KaiHenningsen]

Of course, we should mention that science already does quite a bit to combat cognitive biases. In fact, you might say that is the whole point of the scientific method - finding ways to combat cognitive biases. The important thing here is, I think, to see the scientific method not as a long-ago established set of rules on how to do science, but as an ongoing project to find out how to do science.

[@daemon1143]

Outstanding. This critical topic used to be taught and reinforced by many, if not all, science faculties yet, only a few months ago, I heard a senior researcher speaking at a symposium list the concept of consensus as one of the key validations for their thesis (not climate related by the way).

[@lapetitefee]

Such a gem this channel is

[@frumiousbobsyeruncle]

keep enlightening, Sabine. thanks.

[@Art.ASMR-You2]

It is a encouragement, to me to see that you are a encouraging person thanks for the video appreciate it.

[@RB-xj8gw]

Subscribed. Your videos are clear, honest, short and to the point. Love the format. Pls keep going.

[@LaughingSeraphim]

I really appreciate this persons work.

[@ddmannion]

I take great inspiration from these videos. Thank you for speaking about these important topics in such a straight forward manner.

[@RonLWilson]

Very thought provoking!

[@johnx9318]

Fantastic information - hope I am not biased though! :) (Kidding - really informative, succinct and lucid expose.)

[@Ireniicus]

Brilliant as always and a problem that goes way beyond science.

[@Rojoke]

Another good book on this subject is ‘The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behaviour. I’m glad you covered this topic.

[@Vijay_Madkar]

Excellent explanation 👍

[@stangadomski]

Thank you Sabine, I do appreciate you lectures not only on physics, but in mind to. Well prepared. Commentators appreciate it too. (Am I biased?)

[@dchapero6929]

Excellent video. In my opinion, this subject is at the base of many issues facing humanity. Thank you.

[@KeithRowley418]

Very good summary. Thank you,

[@tomjohn8733]

Sabine, I love how well you put "cognitive bias", into perspective. No wonder we cant solve many of the problems facing the world. thank you, Sabine, your like a precious gem amongst rock...always enjoy learning how to think, peace!

[@MaryAnnNytowl]

*can't *you're Plus the random comma after 'bias"' and the lack of a capital letter for the beginning of a sentence both should be edited. You say you love to learn to think, so there's some more to think about. 🤔 😉

[@michaelrexrode3759]

What's that old bromide in academia? "Science advances one funeral at a time."

[@DIGtotheIT]

Michael Rexrode Yes the old can be heavily opposed to change; but the young need to be aware of bias too.

[@johnmccormick8159]

@@DIGtotheIT @Michael Rexrode Please look up "Is Planck's 'Principle' True?" John T. Blackmore, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science you need only read the abstract.

[@xjohnny1000]

If we ever discover immortality, it will be the end of human progress.

[@tissuepaper9962]

@@xjohnny1000 or the start of a flurry of politically motivated murders...

[@FarFromZero]

Experiment: Watch the video from 1:10 while focusing a point half way between B and the border to the next square in direction of A. Wait some seconds and you will recognize the gray connection cut into half, with a sharp border between two different colors inside the connection. Excellent video. Something kinda off topic in addition. There is no way to avoid cognitive bias. You can swap from one set of cognitive bias to another set of cognitive bias. Like you can swap from one pair of glasses to another. Your whole life is a product of cognitive bias. Is there no way to get rid of it? Yeah, there is. In deep, empty meditation with everything gone except the feeling of being (not existence) you are freed from it. That's what you will see, when you have removed all your glasses. It's the only objective perspective possible., the one which contains nothing.

[@ivanfromunion3513]

10 likes to you, Eternal Goof!!!!! WOW!!!! That observation blew me away! Now I recognize the effect because I have seen it analysed before, now i understand! The CONTRAST between left-A and A is oversaturated and when below-A loses the saturation (contrast) along the diagonal the color approaches A again, but now A is called B!!! And where have we seen that before? The French Cafe tiles illusion. I was unable to find the link, but one video I saw changed contrast gradually between the black and white tiles and at some point the illusion just disappeared! However, the same trick is in this video: m.kzbin.info/www/bejne/r5SyfKSFnt6bb7s Thanks!

[@monkerud2108]

Important subject, but the intresting bit that we have yet to fully face as a species is that our cognitive biases have the same kind of structure as every other form of reasoning! We develop functional language and visualizations for explaining things and we use those to reason, until we can produce some sort of toy model, but in the end the models validity and applicability in relation to nature is an inpossible question in the absolute. Therefor we always have to use cognitive shortcuts to make sense of anything, the question is how to make our cognitive shortcuts more generally applicable and less wrong.

[@catsupchutney]

Sabine, I think the title of this video suggests it is more narrowly focused than it really is. It might be a good idea to give it a less specific title, such as the danger of social media and how to combat it.

[@1965ace]

Let me recommend my favorite book "Trouble With Physics" by Lee Smolin. Great video Sabine!

[@maroggg9243]

Thank you! Fantastic video

[@metubeochannel]

I can't say it better than an earlier comment (by Moebius), so all i can do is repeat it. This (really!) is super important information to remember for scientists and non scientists. Everything you mention here can be applied to our daily lives. Thank you Sabine.

[@peterdesmidt8742]

Important! Well done!

[@otiebrown9999]

You can not avoid it. But a clever "Thought Experiment ", can help resolve some of the issues. Thanks, Sabine!

[@estarling8766]

This report is an eye-opener for many.

[@quitequiet5281]

As a INFJ the way that people misuse the intuition stands out to me... especially in the scientific community. If the word assumption was used in its place... it would be far more accurate. Because a person who is using their intuition would actually be inclined to be suspicious of illusion and doubt what their mind is doing. Language is not static it is molded into something different by common use but this creates confusion. You’re using the word as it is frequently used in by the scientific community because of a bias against the word intuition. I found the irony humorous and wanted to share. Similar to how decimated means ten percent but it is frequently used in place of annihilated. Precision is valuable and language is the source of information and misunderstandings. Thank you very much for all you do, Sabine.

[@LouisGedo]

Excellent analysis!

[@mello.b3373]

so, have you realized your vegan cognitive bias or are you still living in denial of reality and science ?

[@LouisGedo]

@@mello.b3373 You really ought to stop looking in the mirror when you write......you're projecting your cognitive biases on others, sweetie.

[@shamus2198]

Nice piece. Visually, too.

[@tomjohn8733]

The same hold true for people who are not scientist but are mirrrorly self educated, well read individuals with many interests....

[@sathearn]

This is a very important topic, and Sabine's contributions toward encouraging a more critical attitude within science itself are most welcome. Along similar lines, I would urge Sabine and others to have a look at the long-neglected critical work of Dewey B. Larson, notably his 1961 memorandum "Just How Much Do We Really _Know_ ?" and his 1963 book _The Case Against the Nuclear Atom_ .These can be considered independently of any evaluation of Larson's own positive proposals (incidentally, a much more ambitious and non-trivial task - as recognized by such scientists as the late Felix Schmeidler of the Munich Astronomical Observatory). In addition to its remarkable insights regarding foundations of the nuclear theory (which even up to today have _never_ been critically examined by the scientific profession at large) one of the concluding chapters of the latter book contains specific policy recommendations for making science function more much more optimally. Larson's memorandum is here: philpapers.org/rec/LARJHM-3

[@talldarkhansome1]

Nice summary.

[@maryweprin]

An excellent discussion. It of course not only applies to scientists but to all of us, as we seem to be slipping into a world where one’s opinion can be taken as a fact on any matter. Billy

[@jaydawg7820]

Thank you for this video ... Its probably one most important topic (especially in our political world) ...

[@ps200306]

1:25 But which squares match Sabine's outfit and this week's sympathetic backdrop?

[@keerthi3086]

Financial implications play major role in how one would proceed. The changes should be made on the systen so that individuals are not penalized for following sound conclusions.

[@callistomoon461]

Simply wonderful.