How Swing State Economics Will Decide the US Election

Division in the US goes beyond politics. Nationally, the economy is in historically good shape. But the voters in the seven swing states likely to decide the 2024 presidential election live in an economy that's been growing more slowly and suffering more from inflation than the rest of the country.
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[@jorgecruz1235]

We have a “democracy “ where only a handful of states decide presidential elections. 😂

[@mintkatYT]

Time to abolish the electoral college

[@jamsbong]

@@mintkatYT electoral college is what has kept this country in a healthy state for centuries. Democracy is a Western ideology that usually fails in reality.

[@shawnsdrumcave]

Haha right, wealthy donors decide elections...they like to make you think you have a choice.

[@triplediff]

All the states decide. It’s just that some never change their mind so they don’t cause swings from election to election

[@seanthe100]

Swing states change every cycle

[@billionaireinvestor]

This video says a lot without managing to say anything 🤔🤷

[@cliffphenibooth6384]

🎯

[@jcunningham4904]

We're not falling for the Biden isn't doing that bad, BS

[@AndreasMarcos]

Why does your swing state map does not include Minnesota, Virginia, and Maine if their poll numbers are much closer than Arizona and North Carolina?

[@lsheble3613]

It would be interesting to consider other factors in the index. For example, cost of living, which would seem more appropriate to the longer term comparisons, and something more more descriptive than the binary "unemployment" indicator. The steep inclines in the index in 2024 caught my attention - do these correspond with the expiration of COVID-era subsidy programs, such as those for child care and Internet service?

[@KarthikAyyalasomayajula]

Inflation rate is kind of capturing cost of living isn't it?

[@bardsamok9221]

@@KarthikAyyalasomayajula Not really, it's correlated but it's not that simple. btw CPI is down for the first time since may 2020 (which was expected to rise regardless that inflation is coming down). That said inflation should likely be 2.8 by end of quarter. The simplified index is nonsense, and doesnt take into account a lot of real improvements, trends and more complex projections.

[@kingrex1931]

As far as the misery index goes, they changed the way inflation is calculated to make the numbers lower. They no longer count housing costs for example, so the numbers are incorrect. Anyone that buys groceries or pays the utilities knows that the numbers are wrong. Anything you buy at the grocery store costs at least 50% more, and most things cost at least twice as much.

Could someone explain how Misery 2.0 is calculated?

[@kingrex1931]

Rather than looking at the current unemployment rate and inflation rate they look at the cumulative inflation rate and the average unemployment rate. The number really doesn't mean much when they don't look at where other presidents are on it. My guess is that every president since Carter would be well below Biden's 25.5 Misery 2.0 number.

[@bardsamok9221]

@@kingrex1931 It's a nonsense figure. Inflation is trending down towards 2.8, as is CPI improving significantly. World circumstances are changing which is always necessary to understand economics, plus US circumstances are improving with energy security, resource security, and manufacturing security programs. Economy is going in the right direction and there is no single figure that can parse that multifactorial interrelated system of systems. Also with other programs being introduced citizens should be better off in ways not covered by the figure.

[@kingrex1931]

@@bardsamok9221 The economy is still bad and you can't ignore the bad inflation from a year or two ago. People are worse off today than they were three or four years ago.

[@online3010]

I am a Millenniual. I have experience 3 in a "lifetime" problems

[@depal_54]

yea that's the real world for you, you're not special.

[@Feiticeira7X]

​@@depal_54"once in a lifetime event" isn't a once in a lifetime then?

[@MaryLopez-em3rc]

As is normal at your age. Hopefully you solve and move on from them.

[@SweetWillyD]

Only 3? Youre lucky Lol most people have much more. So no need to brag about how well you're doing

[@online3010]

@SweetWillyD it's a little exhausting experiencing in 40 years, 3 once in a lifetime recession. I have done reasonably well, my friends and siblings haven't been able to have kids and buy a house. Some friends from university haven't been able to start getting on the ladder to develop their lives

[@something215]

Its so depressing that were at the point where trump voters cheer for trump more like hes a sports team than the fate of the country

[@arshdeepchauhan4275]

have you seen biden supporters? its a cult over there, they were surprised at the state of biden during the debate as if half the country didnt already know he was not capable of finishing a sentence

[@ffffff52]

In what planet have you been? That's how modern democraies and politics work, look at any rally/event from the past and besides more production value little has changed.

[@trickydicky2908]

@something Does the term ‘vote blue, no matter who’ ring a bell?

[@CO8848_2]

It's depressing you don't have a clue after all this information already provided to you

[@JSK010]

“The faith of country” Phrasing elections in such apocalyptic terms adds to this dynamic

[@EasyYoutubeAI]

Capture the video in 1 minute 🚀⬇️ *Introduction* Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump face significant challenges in winning over voters, with key issues like the economy, immigration, and threats to democracy at the forefront. *Main Points* 1. The 'Battleground economy' consists of seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which collectively produce about $4.4 trillion in GDP. 2. These states are economically diverse, with some like Arizona and Nevada seeing significant growth in manufacturing, particularly in semiconductor and battery production. 3. Despite a strong overall U.S. economy with low unemployment and decreasing inflation, the swing states face unique economic challenges, such as rising housing costs in Nevada and shrinking GDP per capita in Wisconsin. 4. Population growth in states like Georgia has led to economic expansion, but this growth must be shared among more people, leading to economic strain. 5. Economic performance varies significantly between blue and red counties, with blue counties generally experiencing more robust growth. 6. The 'misery index,' which combines inflation and unemployment rates, shows that while Biden's term has seen low unemployment, high inflation has eroded purchasing power, leading to a mixed economic perception among voters. 7. Polling indicates that voters in swing states trust Trump more than Biden on economic issues, despite Biden's efforts to manage inflation and unemployment. *Conclusion* While the economy is a critical issue for voters, it is not the only factor influencing their decisions. Local economic conditions may ultimately determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

[@michaelgoh9768]

The money that can be handed out holds the votes.

[@ywtcc]

It's been well established that voters and economists are talking about two different things when using the word "inflation". This habit of using the word as doublespeak is irresponsible reporting, and shows a real lack of understanding the academic material. Putting investors words into average people's mouths is a really dishonest, nasty habit! It's very curious how supposedly reputable financial news still relies on amateur economics reporting.

[@wafflesaurus_supreme]

What are you talking about? Inflation is the rate of the rise in consumer prices over time. Do you know someone who uses the word to describe something else, because I can't think of anyone who is confused on the subject.

[@sukendar4316]

@@wafflesaurus_supreme I think what he meant was that as per economists the inflation is going down but at the price level consumers aren't feeling it. So, he mentioned that putting investors words into average people's mouths is a really dishonest.

[@wafflesaurus_supreme]

@@sukendar4316 Prices are not increasing as quickly as they were before. They're increasing at a rate that's only slightly above the target 2% rate. If average people expect consumer prices to drop across the board, they're being dishonest with themselves. This is the new normal (plus about 3% currently). Here's an honest message: This is very clearly an education problem, and that can be solved with minimal effort and time investment. It can be learned - and retained for life - by any adult inside of ten minutes.

[@pcrockett5967]

It is not rocket science. The cost of owning a home, not buying, just owning, has gone up by 25% over the past few years. The cost of borrowing has gone up by 5%. The rate of inflation is still 3%, so prices aren’t coming down from historic highs, they’re just not rising as quickly. Just over 50% of households make under $75,000. Trump, amazing showman but a con man, nonetheless, got this and when he’s not terrified of possible jail time if he loses, actually addresses these grievances. Biden can’t see past his truly great accomplishments enough to realize that more people are struggling financially despite being employed. The majority of these households are also realizing their children are unlikely to afford a home and the American Dream is now unaffordable. If the Dems don’t step off their sense of entitlement and address these non 401k, non investor class households, they lose no matter whether Biden passes the torch.

[@TristanRailsback-c9c]

What is funny is once Biden took office my family and friends all feel like they are better economically (we can afford a lot more and are less stressed about money) but again my county voted blue and state so many our policies boosted our economy

[@aame6643]

So we're not going to mention the Uncommitted movement and the critique of the US's foreign policy? okay bloomberg

[@princestevenii.772]

Biden's foreign policy is why u should support him.

[@josevnueva7]

Older, power, whiter…. One of those should not be considered. Racism.

[@samuela-aegisdottir]

This is what I don't understand about American view on Economic: After covid and during the War in Ukraine, inflation has risen everywhere around the world. Many developed countries had similar or higher inflation as the US. Global economy is interconnected. But in the minds of many Americans, and in this documentary as well, inflation is purely fault of the sitting president. It doesn't maje sense to blame Biden for anything the whole world has suffered through. And American economy has actually recovered better than many of the deveoped world, especially UK or Germany.

[@ratwynd]

The Blue Wall states had the worst and longest lockdowns during the CCP flu. FL had about 2 weeks and no one really paid attention after about 3 days. FL is booming in most ways. Where do Blue Wall state politicians go on vacation? Not Detroit.......Not Baltimore.......

[@squibbelsmcjohnson]

Our(mostly presidential policies and administration actions )actions and choices effect the world....do some learning to understand why. We are the reason a lot of countries suffer more then us 😂😂😂

[@TTandDGaming]

America has a cough, the world gets a cold.

[@CJW0056]

I personally doubt a republican president will make any difference in the economy but I'm willing at least try it, it's just getting insane.

[@boogiman60]

I suffered to much this last three years under Biden and Harris

[@tipsandtricks6071]

I don't understand your people you just going to pass over the fact that we had a lockdown that hurt the world economy. At some point people have to stop blaming any president.

[@MCorpReview]

Great analysis. 🧐

[@NapalmMan69]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT 🇺🇸

[@Hyperion1040]

It's worth to be a swing state 😅

[@kevindang1331]

Doomberg lol😂

[@mewe9020]

NK propaganda are more honest than this

[@aphextemper44]

Yeah this is democrat propaganda trying to provide excuses for Biden incompetence

[@SweetWillyD]

TRUMP 2024 Get ready to cry cuz im thirsty

[@sal_joker10]

New York is a swing state

[@CutiePi]

Why no misery 2.0 for the Trump term too?

[@tobechukwuolumba7337]

Biden will step aside from the race this year, and someone else will take over the economy and let the misery index go lower. At least, I vote for a Democrat, and I'm voting for someone else other than Biden. Great analysis and commentary.

[@studentdrake]

Congratulations you predicted the future. Now do the lottery.

[@raosiddharth4726]

The bias in the video and metrics shown are pretty insane.

[@svenlima]

+raosid.... There can't be any insame metrics because the USA doesn't use the metric system ... :-)

[@raosiddharth4726]

@@svenlima if you are from usa then it has hard to tell if that was joke or you were seriously telling me the wrong thing.

[@svenlima]

@@raosiddharth4726 Of course it's a joke. What was the term for this kind of situation? r/woosh !

[@raosiddharth4726]

@@svenlima yes something like that

[@raosiddharth4726]

@AsenaAidana data can be rotated as per the narrative, it will have facts and biases. If you can't tell how data is being shown then everything is factual information to you.

[@marysue7165]

News flash! That's always true. You just havent paid attention

[@donmezzanatto8607]

BIDENOMICS

[@TheDavidlloydjones]

Historically low unemployment. Inflation? Higher prices, yes -- and higher wages and incoms precisely to match.

[@jamsbong]

@@TheDavidlloydjones today. There are so many companies doing job cuts. Don’t believe the numbers are real. And salary has not gone up to even close to the rate of rent and gas prices. The pain is real and Bidenomics is to blame.

[@aphextemper44]

​@@jamsbongproductivity per capita is higher than ever but companies refuse to share the profit. They keep milking the cow while refusing to give it water. Guess the outcome

[@rosmir]

Great commentary!

[@wenniferjay903]

Trump2024 ❤❤❤❤

[@marion817]

who’s here after sleepy joe finally withdrew? happy for him, more sleep! MAGA!!!

[@Missy-Missy1111]

"Greedflation!"

[@sidv4615]

1:18 man that was soo rude of you guys, imagine if someone says ohh this State is bad cuz it is more blacker.

[@djhero0071]

It's not trying to be mean. It's just facts.

[@laurenevers8644]

"More black", not more blacker.

[@gregoryganso]

Before it was “Women’s Right”, now it is “Reproductive Rights” 😂😂😂

[@jaredt.murphy8257]

Women's rights is not just about abortion. It's about fair pay, maternity leave, and many, many other things. Reproductive rights is a separate issue.

[@wolfdog21]

The bias is just too much

[@wolfdog21]

@AsenaAidana If I give you a list of 5 great things about chocolate, that are truthful and accurate, i.e. facts, I am being biased. Since I left out all the cons about chocolate. Especially if I tweak how I collect the data about my 5 great things about chocolate.

[@rohanjaiswal18]

@@wolfdog21 they aren't capable of understanding this!

[@missiwoods8852]

We did last time!

[@hackedbyBLAGH]

BIDEN 2024

[@happyinparadise7812]

For prison

[@Fiuvenn]

Never.

[@markowitzen]

​@@happyinparadise7812 the irony of repubs starting the lock her up thing in 2016 and demanding biden be thrown in prison for some reason they can't come up with yet but still complaining about ostensible political persecution

[@nhjhbmkuy7173]

@@happyinparadise7812no that’s for the felon

[@tcsmagicbox]

Moral of the story: vote blue!

[@seahorsefencing]

RFK JR is less likely to be married to corporations

[@OwnGrid]

What happened to trump misery chart

[@mewe9020]

So Bias reporting I can't believe a word from these people, I prefer NK propaganda

[@mrclarkson3812]

In NC we love Trump!

[@jackmcgurnrecords310]

😆😆

[@Jumanicos]

I like money

[@seanberthiaume8240]

Trump2025ususususus

[@davidalbertoramirezaguirre2938]

TRUMP 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 2024

[@alanoveseika261]

whiter😵

[@elaknalon23]

Trump 2024

[@pt820]

All I am seeing is +1 In Pennsylvania

[@bryanotieno7106]

Left wing or right wing same bird

[@TheRasiani]

Actually, one wants to end American Democracy - and the other does not.

[@MJ-revered]

You smell like perfume.​@@TheRasiani

[@jatodd3746]

"The Left Wing is broken, the Right is insane."

[@shawnsdrumcave]

Trump 2024!

[@aliabdelheert6234]

ثير ءؤ

[@margaritajaramilloporras8289]

Hay que defender la vida siempre,vamos Trump

[@poosandwich6399]

is bloomberg shutting down, where do u find garbage journalists like this

[@Agtsmirnoff]

3:41 Wow! So Biden takes over and housing cost immediately skyrocket😂

[@jaypatel-xz6tr]

Not pro Biden but to provide a more empirical explanation, housing costs within those states went up partly due to economic growth. More ppl that move to those areas for work create a more competitive housing environment. This is exacerbated by high interest rates created by deficit spending under both presidencies. Would be misleading to assume it’s a direct correlation to the election of Biden

[@redpandadrooper]

Umm no. Biden takes office and the Federal reserve raises rates to combat inflation, raising housing costs. But I don’t think you want to understand that, lol.

[@patrickbateman1660]

The economy crashed during covid. Then biden took over and the economy heated up.

[@nhjhbmkuy7173]

Yeah because it’s not like their was a pandemic or anything

[@Agtsmirnoff]

@@nhjhbmkuy7173 there was a Pandemic for most of 2020 and prices hardly moved. Then Biden is elected and they skyrocket!

[@24elbaliava]

TRUMP❤

[@bruce5579]

Brought to you by the democRAT party.

[@horsesrlife5311]

RFK JR

[@alankeungz79]

FJB

[@VariousAce-o3f]

"Inflation at an all time low" yet most me and the people I know cross the country would compare candy bar prices. 99¢ - 1.50$ an now 4.29$ average. Thanks Joe..?🥲

[@justmythoughts2786]

Trump 2024