How to Invest in an Inflationary Recession | Paulo Macro & Le Shrub

In Episode 363 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investors Paulo Macro and Le Shrub about their investment ideas, frameworks, and processes for identifying investment opportunities and managing risk.
In the first hour, Demetri asks Paulo and Le Shrub about some of their respective frameworks, including the EM-ification of developed economies, the need to understand the incentives of policymakers, and how these frameworks can help inform your expectations about interest rates, inflation, credit rationing, and much more.
In the second hour, Paulo Macro and Le Shrub discuss how the contemporary strain on the international system and on American military and financial hegemony could amplify some of the budgetary and political headwinds facing developed economies in the years ahead. They discuss the conundrum facing policymakers in China, the investment opportunity in commodities, the search for a new safe asset in a world of worsening fiscal balance sheets, and what it feels like to be “financially gaslighted” during an inflationary recession where prices rise as one’s living standard declines.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
Episode Recorded on 05/07/2024

[@monty5912]

Great guests. I can vouch for both substacks. Great content and very informative

[@leestack]

I always enjoy your exceptional thoughtful podcasts, Demetri. Also, thank you, Le Shrub and Paulo, for your insights ...

[@phatster88]

Starts at 28:34

[@JohnTaylor-ts8wk]

Wealthy boomers aren’t giving their kids homes because they fear a wealth transfer anyway - they’re doing it because they want grandkids. Sometimes it works too - a friend of mine was living with his fiancé in a tiny apartment. Once they got married, they were gifted a house and immediately started having kids. In a tiny apartment they probably wouldn’t have done that … expensive housing is a huge burden for families and a major disincentive for having kids.