How US Cities Can Avoid Depopulation

[@RomanNardone]

Yeah these assumptions seem flawed. There's no way that the growth seen in Phoenix and Miami will continue for the next thirty years. Floods, drought and extreme heat will make it inevitable that people will trend north.

[@KimJungGooner]

Most people I know don't believe climate change is real. They'll wait until it's too late or they'll fry.

[@matthewmitchell68]

That’s interesting as Phoenix is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation right now!

[@runningfromabear8354]

You might not be wrong. I had my oldest child in 2004, and remember talking to mothers from Phoenix in 2004. Comparing how frequently I got my baby out for a walk in the winter in Northern Ontario, Canada to the other mothers and the ones in Phoenix went outside in the summer about as often at the opposite time of year. I had our youngest in 2022 and similar conversation. By 2022 none of the Phoenix mothers went for daily walks or even tried during the summer. They described it as he'll on earth and wouldn't subject a baby to that heat. The reason this is relevant is quality of life. Going for a daily walk helps babies learn day from night and helps them to sleep at night and it's exercise for parents. It's especially helpful for treating postpartum depression and being trapped indoors with the AC is really miserable for parents. It's a lot easier to keep a baby warm in a stroller in the winter than it is to keep a baby cool in the summer. At what point does cheap housing in Phoenix become too miserable due to oven like tendencies?

[@kated3165]

@@matthewmitchell68 Which is likely a problem, considering its sitting in a desert biome that is going to be particularly vulnerable to climate change effects like increasing heat waves and droughts, or disruptions to the global food chain supply and energy production.

[@scottbogen1168]

@@matthewmitchell68 My extended family members are among the buyers of Phoenix homes. They don’t believe in climate science, and just want cheap real estate in a warm state that they can visit in the winter. But the fact of the matter is that Phoenix is already limiting new construction permits, as there’s not enough groundwater for the projects they’ve already approved. Rain will become more rare, and 110 degree days are becoming more common. It’s a huge gamble to live in the state long-term.

[@researchtwins]

Are we ready to admit the indigenous tribes had it right all along?

[@carlosbarragan6729]

had what right?

[@kuriousarts]

This study is an art in being precisely wrong. It's amazing that these people get funded for this. But I do love the message you're sharing. Resilience is all that matters. We need to shift from sustainability to survivability.

[@falsificationism]

I (somewhat hatewatch) and follow this guy who does moderately racist, anti-homeless content on KZbin...it's so bad I can't tell if it's satire. He recently visited all these sad small towns in Montana with dwindling populations. All look the same. Aging buildings begging for people; degraded downtowns searching for a population; aging, bitter people pulling slots and drinking cheap whiskey at the town's only bar before the next rodeo. I couldn't help but imagine how AMAZING these places could be. The natural environment COULD be a draw, but private ranchers own it all, and fight any attempts to restore the land or build wildlife preserves. If 50 Edenicity types moved into some of these towns, we could literally run the politics, change zoning rules, and make things better...even in the face of DEEP skepticism of outsiders. Most are apathetic and largely pretty brainwashed along a Democrat/Republican spectrum. Still, I'll bet many could be persuaded by small experiments that draw more people and energy in WITHOUT making these towns "crowded, noisy, and filled with homeless moochers." What an opportunity!

[@SmartChannel01]

Was it Nick Johnson?

[@EdwardM-t8p]

​@@SmartChannel01 That's what I was going to say, Nick Johnson! I follow him and I'm not offended because sadly you're very likely right. (Karen Mappy ☹️ frownie face) Sometimes he makes or used to make prank calls to locals and annoys the 💩 out of them.

[@EdwardM-t8p]

​@@SmartChannel01 P.S. I've watched a LOT of his videos and suspect he's a heterosexually married gay man. But that's just me; he could be straight as an arrow.

[@falsificationism]

@@SmartChannel01 lol YES 🙃 Didn't want to promote the channel, but as a social scientist I look at it pretty anthropological. And since he's boots on the ground, I DO learn things about cultural attitudes, what neighborhoods look like on the ground in mostly real time etc.

[@falsificationism]

@@EdwardM-t8p ha yeah Mappy is so over-the-top...certainly the channel's Id, to Nick's Superego.

[@sdstacey46]

Of all the climate studies I've seen, that was certainly one of them.

[@KCH55]

Anyways, I read a little bit of that article it's a lot to read, but what it sounds like to me is that they're utilizing the immigration and immigration out. I'm not sure if they're including the birth rate into that as well. It doesn't look like they are including the environment which is fair enough because that is quite harder to calculate. This is because despite what you may think, people may live in places that are not in the best climate situation. I mean look at Florida and how it has grown, despite the risk of alligators, floods, hurricanes, sinkholes that can sink your entire house and you, people still live there and people still move there. The only reason why you may see people leaving Florida now is the cost of living is too high there, which is the biggest factor for why people move to where they do is cost of living and economic opportunities regardless of the climate.

[@kenhunt5153]

College and University towns and cities. Old street car inner suburbs. Communities that have eliminated just single family zoning. Communities that have free bus service. Communities that look like America.

[@TheDanEdwards]

Went and skimmed the study in question, and was very disappointed. They don't seem to understand climate change and yet propose their population study as looking at climate change scenarios.

[@ickster23]

Im still waiting for my house to be underwater from the year 2000 cataclysmic flooding event.

[@gospelofchange]

This is the vibe

[@ax1338]

We are literally in the ssp3 scenario word for word

[@LizWatkinson-e3l]

nice presentation

[@keegoid9]

I predict that transit hubs will become less important. We already have an infrastructure built around cars. Electric robotaxis are forever going to make vehicular transport the most efficient method of transportation around urban areas.

[@Ed-ty1kr]

And to think they had me convinced with movies like Water World that the seas would rise exponentially. Yet to this day the high tide mark I made dated 1989 here in Florida, is still high tide today. Strange... Anyway, would'nt the important question be: WHY, these cities are being depopulated? Just a thought.

[@KCH55]

You would think that boomers would be more interested in walkability given how old they're getting like, you know it's time to start thinking about the fact that you are a few years shy of like maybe your driver's license. Like I get when they were younger of course. Being more enthusiastic about the car is definitely something boomers would be a gen xers and early millennials. I mean we're going to have a depopulation growth anyways because of the birth rate. As far as depopulation in cities, I don't see any reason to think that that's going to happen. There will always be cities that will rise and there will be cities that will fall. That is a human history. It is since the industrial age rural communities have lost population and that really hasn't a change with post-industrial either. Despite Urban sprawl. I mean yes, most likely it's going to be some coastal cities and cities that have a high rate of drought like the desert and the loss of ground water, will the population be lost.

[@StLouis-yu9iz]

Yeah, that study was useless. St. Louis is the most underrated city in the world. More people will realize that soon and we are gonna boom. I just hope we have enough more rail transit when the climate refugees start coming.

[@gj1234567899999]

Just went to downtown St. Louis. Terrible. Homeless and open air drug dealing and vacant sites everywhere. Only place decent are western suburbs. Everywhere else is crime ridden

[@EdwardM-t8p]

Well you have that subway-surface light metro that can be totally grade separated if it isn't already and a streetcar in St. Louis County. Plus you're building or planning a north-south light rail tramway along surface avenues. But yeah, there's a lot of historic areas which should be preserved including E. St. Louis but the city proper blew it and set the trend when it tore down its waterfront in the 1930s; I think even then the buildings could have been refurbished and repurposed.

[@OHexpat12]

The politically-reduced minimum impact model propagated by the IPCC is a non-starter for me. Such a discredited source seems out of place in this presentation. How does this source change the expectations? 1. IPCC CCmodel is still pegged to 2100, gradual; most new peer-reviewed literature is exponential in a 20-year scale. 2. Demographic decline models are based on net neutral migration patterns. 3. Sea level rise expected this decade eliminates not only residential areas but puts ports, logistics and trade infrastructure at greater risk exposure, as per recent assurance/insurance changes.

[@gj1234567899999]

Solve crime and homelessness and cities will heal themselves. Light rail and other crap won’t work because it’s not safe

[@maxwellvandenberg2977]

Don't you think more people will have an easier time affording a place to live if they can walk or take transit to work and to the store rather than having to drive?

[@EdwardM-t8p]

Instead of light rail and "other crap" the cities should be building light metros like Vancouver's Skytrain instead, because then the rail transit would be totally safe if the crime and homeless problems are solved, because it would be grade-seperate and out of the way of cars piloted by American (bad) drivers.

[@kated3165]

You can't solve homelessness under a Capitalistic system because its a zero-sum game where all the wealth created increasingly gets hoarded to the top... and so less and less is left for the working class at the bottom. Creating (and maintaining) poverty is literally an important feature of Capitalism, which depends, in part, on a constant availability of massive pools of poor desperate people willing to work for starvation wages with no benefits nor protections.

[@gj1234567899999]

@@kated3165 you don’t know what the hell you are talking about. Capitalism doesn’t cause poverty. Bad democrat policies are causing poverty. The governments main job is physical safety of citizens, and not being a nanny state. But today the government regulates and taxes everything to oblivion and will tax you for minor things but if you are robbed and beaten in the streets your attacker will basically face no consequence due to “bail reform”. Nobody will invest in a business that will be robbed and you aren’t safe. Business, people, insurance lose millions from rampant crime and car theft, and arson. That leads to higher costs which leads to less spending and a bad economy. The homeless issue is due to moral decay caused by liberals and leftists. In the past if you had mental health issues, and can’t work, your family, cousins, brothers, sisters etc will help you. But because of leftists constant attack on the family unit, promotion of drug due, and degenerate culture there is no family support and people just left to fend for themselves. Liberals solution is for “social workers” to go to you and give you clean crack pipes.

[@EdwardM-t8p]

@@kated3165 And capitalism has the seeds of its own destruction by the accumulation of wealth. Such accumulation leads inevitably to capitalism collapsing into fascism, feudalism, or an omnishambles that gets swept away for socialism. But socialism has to be democratic and there also has to be free enterprise within, otherwise it too collapses and gets replaced by capitalism, or devolves into fascism.