HS2 SPECIAL: Is Phase 2a back on? And Louise Haigh launches review of HS2 Phase 1 | Ep 56

[@lawrencejob]

Reducing the loading gauge of a brand new railway to Victorian standards to save 3% will be the most quintessential British politics of my lifetime

[@peterwilliamallen1063]

No body has reduced anything least of all the loading gauge, if you resurch HS2 more you will notice that the HS2 trains will in the North be running at times on the existing Railway routes to Liverpool and Scotland in which case a train desighned to the UIC Europen gauge would not of been able to fit onto any existing lines and no one has ever said that the HS2 line or tains were going to be built to the UIC European gauge

[@maxeaves]

😁Thanks Team. Great show on the HS2 special.

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers Max. Much appreciated!

[@joegrey9807]

I've been a junior flunkey in various public and private organisations in the industry - including both the DfT and SRA, and from my lowly observations I agree entirely with Richard. The civil service is like a giant flywheel. It keeps things going, it helps to moderate ministers' more eccentric ideas, it minimises corruption and legal risk, and it sets up and processes routine tasks. I wouldn't want anyone else doing most of the jobs that they do. And where they have outsourced these processes it's often gone wrong. But they need to be kept well away from day-to-day stuff where decisions need to be done without consulting teams of lawyers, and they need to be kept away from one-off projects where deftness, flexibility, and action is more important than risk-free, solid, stable procedure. And well away from projects that need a decent firebreak between well meaning but non-expert politicians and the potential for blowing up under them and the resulting de-risking to oblivion.

[@GreenSignals]

A very fair analysis indeed Joe!

[@nevillehollingworth8290]

Excellent and informative discussion based on sound evidence. Well done to all 😊

[@grenfellroad8394]

I’ve said for years that DfT stands for ‘Don’t Flippin’ Touch’! Every time they start meddling, costs go up and it goes to pot. They should leave HS2 phase 1 along to get built, get phase 2 moving and stop messing with things. Great interviews and show as always. Cheers, Tim

[@marilynbalderstone696]

Wonderful to hear sound and informed common sense for a whole hour. Thank you. 🌻

[@GreenSignals]

Thanks Marilyn!

[@GrahamWarner-q5y]

so good to see your fun and the info, keep up the good work

[@paulroberts9570]

Thanks

[@GreenSignals]

Thanks Paul. Much appreciated.

[@stephendavies6949]

A very insightful, thoughtful and informed discussion regarding HS2. Personally, I think the issue regarding "greater scrutiny" of Phase 1 from the DfT is nothing to be alarmed about. I think it's the new administration's way of signalling they will - unlike the last lot - "get a grip" on costs. This will stand it in good stead when the government (hopefully) announce both the projects to rebuild Euston & push on from Birmingham will go ahead. "Worry not, taxpayer, we have it all under control."

[@superted6960]

That was my initial thought too. Unfortunately, the stuff about possibly renegotiating contracts sets the alarm bells off. Not the way to behave

[@stephendavies6949]

@@superted6960 Yes, that's true. It would be interesting to understand why that was said.

[@marionbloom1218]

"Greater scrutiny" is just an opportunity for political points-scoring, trying to signal (falsely) that they are more competent than the last lot of muppets. If it ended at that, it would be fine - but as for renegotiating contracts mid-project, that simply shows that they are just another bunch of muppets! More cost, more delays, more pain. The more government involvement, the worse it is for everyone, they just don't get it.

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

​@stephendavies6949 The politicians are talking of trying to renegotiate contracts because the contracts have been let on a cost plus basis (actual cost plus an overhead and profit percentage). HS2 did this for 2 reasons ; Contractors are refusing to accept mega sized projects on an all risk basis because their margins don't cover the risk. The other reason is that the full scope of works was unknown at the time the contracts were let so again the risk would have been too much to bare. They have absolutely no chance of renegotiating the contracts where a lot of work is still outstanding. They will have the same problem with the new hospital programme.

[@marionbloom1218]

@@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg The politicians just don't get the commercial reality. If you ask a contractor to carry a significant risk, they have to put the price up further because they have to allow that risk to be covered without sending the firm into bankruptcy. I find in this country there is perverse attitude to risk, as a technical consultant I have met this too often when working for project managers of EPC contractors, where their technique is to off-lay risk to subcontractors further down the chain, people who often don't understand the risk and certainly don't have the muscle to cope with it. The attitude is "it's not my problem any more". But when the subbie further down the chain meets the risk and can't cope with it, it affects the whole chain above. Better project managers know to identify, embrace and manage risk intelligently. The basic problem is that the politicians are just amateurs who have no idea how to manage anything, no professional training or expertise in how to run a project but they think they can do better than the expert project managers. The biggest risk to these sorts of projects always come from the political angle not the technical one. Spontaneous decisions by politicians trying to catch political brownie points like Rishi just canning HS2 phase 2, throwing the billions already spent straight down the toilet.

[@AlanKirkman-q1h]

Thanks!

[@GreenSignals]

Thanks Alan - much appreciated. Sorry for slow response - been on hols!

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Great discussion of less than notional HS2 to Crewe; hopefully the northern designs will retain the tall & larger tunnels and gauges for tall sleepers & large overnight freight to future proof ? and hopefully they can retain high quality sleepers and 200+ mph speeds with 100 year life. Besides the North/South divide....what about other East / West divides (e.g. EWR, MVL upgrades with some single-tracks) ? It seems like the expensive bits in the plans are usually overlooked (hence re-engineering and plan re-designs due to fiscal deficits ! sad but true willful ignorance). Here we go forward.

[@daviddearden6372]

It would be interesting to hear Nigel and Richards views about East West Rail and especially the final link between Bedford and Cambridge. It looks like the vested interests in South Cambridgeshire are out to wreck the project using the same tactics as were used in the Chilterns, which were the catalyst for the HS2 fiasco. Also you missed the first test trains running between Bicester and Bletchley in the news.

[@adrianbaron4994]

Quite right, and the absurd decision to only make " passive provision " ( based once again on short termist penny pinching ) for electrification of the EWR rather than actually electrifying from ( initially ) Oxford to Milton Keynes, which ought to have been glaringly obvious as the route joins already electrified lines at each end. Once again we have a diesel desert in an electrified area but unlike say the Marshlink line, this is one we have newly created and at no little cost.

[@chairmakerPete]

@@adrianbaron4994 there's currently no electrification at Oxford. Got to run down to Didcot to get to that. Given the horrendous cost overrun of the Great Western electrification project, (through Didcot), it was probably decided to leave further electrification up to Oxford and beyond alone until everyone involved with the GW fiasco is dead.

[@RobertBlack-m8u]

Hello Richard and Chris, Firstly, I would like to say that you have new watches in my family who have come across your news about Folkestone and Warren and the Humble goats. And thank you for keeping us weary enthusiasts stuck in the middle of nowhere entertained with great stories and fantastic sense of humour. Thanks again. Stay safe.! Robert Black (Cambridgeshire)

[@Anonymoususer_8823]

About time too. Glad that HS2 Phase 2 is now back and to get the go ahead.

[@GreenSignals]

Well, we hope so. There's still a long way to go and one thing's for sure - it won't be called HS2!

[@Anonymoususer_8823]

I think it still be called HS2.

[@TheFjmtb]

Speaking as a chartered environmental engineer (IEMA), I can confirm building a massive motorway is worse than a railway.

[@andrewhotston983]

Speaking as a resident of the UK, I can confirm that motorways are much more useful than railway lines!

[@lukjzu]

@@andrewhotston983 The classic I won't use it so nobody should have it mentality that keeps UK backwards. It's abit like the boomers telling young people that they've fked up the environment, so you can't enjoy the things we used to enjoy ourselves like flying, or travelling to other cities to meet friends and families

[@GreenSignals]

and speaking as someone with their brain engaged I can confirm that both serve a purpose - just a different one.

[@pontiouspilotman]

In my opinion it makes no sense whatsoever to just go to Birmingham, we need to free up the routes further North so the existing lines can become a dedicated commuter and freight corridor!

[@allanmorton6022]

Great HS2 episode, be interesting to see what gov eventually announces. Let's hope for clear decisions which include Euston and Crewe. Otherwise very limited benefit to Scotland. Good to hear about the free remembrance travel.

[@GreenSignals]

Thanks Allan

[@cameronpatterson1045]

Hi from Glasgow Thanks for another great show Boys

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers Cameron!

[@mik99D]

You should start doing the 'Two Ronnies' farewell. "It's good bye from me and its good bye from him" Then both say "Goodbye" That would be cool.

[@tridentmusic5570]

You feel the tension every time too? ..They're not going to "Play" ! - they love our pain........................(Not serious N, R & S xxx)

[@cd66061]

Top quality as always! 👍🏻

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers.

[@malcoblues]

Will the goats get high vis coats ?

[@davidcook380]

Thank you Gents ,A very Interesting and informative show as always, In my opinion it would be madness not to go up to Manchester .Your shows are the best hours viewing on TV something to look forward to with coffee and biscuits on hand . Regards David

[@jimmillington8299]

It's surprising how little attention is paid to poor project delivery of Ph1 by HS2 Ltd and their construction contractors, including overengineering and poor (incentivisation of) cost control. It's too easy/lazy to lay the blame with 'politicians' and DfT, e.g. regarding scope. A report a year ago by the Institute for Government stated the following: "HS2 Ltd estimate that scope changes accounted for [only] £1bn of the £20-26bn increase between 2017 and 2019". When Louise Hague speaks of 'dire delivery' and 'poor project management' by HS2 Ltd, I think she deserves a little more respect than merely speculating that Starmer might soon sack her. Hopefully James Stewart will identify what has caused the delivery of Ph1 to be so 'dire', and in an ideal world, the people responsible will be held accountable; e.g. being hauled in front of the House of Commons Transport and Public Accounts Committees. 😂😂😂

[@GreenSignals]

1. The Daily Mirror and The Sun speculated she might be sacked. We merely reported what they’d said - and then said it would be a mistake. 2. When football managers attack their players in public, it never ends well. The best leaders / managers give their players bollockings in private but in public, they support them. I would counsel a similar approach with HS2 Phase 1. 3. Whilst I’ve never suggested that HS2 has been the best managed project - there are clearly some very serious issues to learn - I am certain that 99.999% of the population wouldn’t know where to start trying to lead or manage something as complex. Not that you’d know it from comments on social media over the last few years!!

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

​@@GreenSignalsWell said. The problem is a lot of people think they are construction experts when they know nothing about the construction industry or how it works. They were told it could be built for a budget of 32.70 billion so they automatically think the public are being conned by the Contractors, not realising the budget was a figure pulled out of the air and also not understanding what the obstacles are to delivering the project .

[@Adam-pk2te]

Interesting and informative as always! Hopefully the review will conclude that the civil service and general public should have no meaningful say over infrastructure projects

[@andrewhotston983]

You want a dictatorship? I suppose Mussolini did make the trains run on time, so it's natural for railway enthusiasts to be willing to sacrifice democracy for a few miles of new railway line! Honestly, I despair.

[@Adam-pk2te]

@@andrewhotston983 Not letting a few irate boomers in the Chilterns interfere with National Infrastructure is not Dictatorship, grow up!

[@Adam-pk2te]

@@andrewhotston983 Grow up! Not allowing entitled boomers to block or interfere with infrastructure is not dictatorship! HS2 to Crewe has Parliamentary approval if anything Sunak was being a dictator when he cancelled it!

[@andrewhotston983]

@@Adam-pk2teYou're the one that needs to grow up - the general public aren't all "entitled boomers". If you want a society where any project just gets bulldozed through, go and live in China.

[@tomhoworth1685]

​@@Adam-pk2teYes, it's everyone understanding their role. The public vote for a general concept/idea. Eg. More trains, faster trains, greener trains to connect cities. Elected government and parliament decide on what goes where and how much capacity is needed. A report to scope it out by the government department. Then a budget is estimated and an arms length team deliver the specifics to meet the objectives. Surely that's how it should work?

[@gingertom2355]

Perhaps the point of the new Phase 1 review is to address the lack of Civils contractor performance incentives in existing contracts. Although this is obviously a simplification of the reality I recall the rationale for this situation dates back to the original Civil Engineering tenders where the industry couldn't / wouldn't expose itself to the vast commercial risk potential which existed at the time of ITT due to the immaturity of the engineering scope and political uncertainties which existed and would not bid on the basis of that commercial risk. Subsequently the HS2 chair and acting CEO John Thompson was of the view last year that as much of the Civil Engineering scope is de risked with the existence of mature scope of work, detailed designs and ground surveys, a more performance risk sharing based contract model should be sought, moving away from the low risk / low performance incentive model in existence. Perhaps last weeks Ministerial announcement is a nod of their intention to move existing Civil's contracts to a more performance incentivised model (if commercially possible?) As always chaps, another excellent subject matter and content to match.

[@GreenSignals]

Thanks. Though I do worry about varying any contract post tender. It rarely costs less.

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

They have absolutely no chance of renegotiating the contracts where a lot of work is outstanding. Furthermore contractors are now refusing to accept mega sized projects on an all risk basis opting instead to go cost plus like the HS2 contracts or on a management fee basis which is similar. The years of entering into 1 billion pound projects while taking all the risks except client changes for a 1% profit margin are over.

[@MrMWRMWR]

I don't understand what's problematic about 200m HS2 trains (stopping hopefully and) passing through Stockport as 1/2/3/4 are all over 200m. btw, I've previously posed the question of a potential 400m HS2 train split at Crewe to service Liverpool and Manchester or even WCML to Scotland or across to Wales as explicit inclusion.

[@lukjzu]

Issue with 200m trains are that they are shorter than the current pendolinos, meaning fewer seats per train, but still using up the same path, which is already very congested going into piccadilly (via stockport).

[@MrMWRMWR]

​@@lukjzu I was aware of the diminished train capacity, but since there's no longer any clarity on additional (HS2) platforms at and routes into Piccadilly, I don't have a feeling for the most critical congestion factors on the routes up to Manchester. Is it the route capacities (via Gatley or Stockport ) or the availablity of terminal platforms at MAN?

[@fantasyfleet]

Great episode this week

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers

[@malcolmpeakman7788]

Great stuff, the political parts sound just like some of the episodes of "Yes Minister". Having built several Subways in overseas countries I can relate to this. Nigel is under a misapprehension, by the way, the approach to Penzance was double track in GW days, confirmed by Cooke's Atlas of the Great Western

[@mik99D]

I used to teach a permanent secretary during the Blair government astrophysics. The stories he told me were straight out of 'Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister@ This sounds exactly the same.. Obviously I can't divulge information. Due to my involvement with the MOD.

[@royburnley5276]

SUPPER THANKS FROM ROY BURNLEY FOR DERBY ALSTOM INTERVIEW AND HST 2

[@Richardhill1978]

The G.O.A.T off all railway podcasts keep it up I might need to track down the team behind the goats to talk at Network Rails Green Network

[@GreenSignals]

Excellent idea!

[@winwood16]

Briiiiant,! And so much is common sense. We have always lacked technical and project management experience in both our politicians and civil servants. For example, changes to the scope of work post the study phase, and managing risk in implementation is such an integral part of project management which often goes unrecognised in those circles. I also think that the whole approach to procurement in HS2 needs to be looked at.

[@GreenSignals]

Thanks

[@oldestnic]

I live in the Appennines in Italy. Keeping goats off the roads is a full time job, so keeping goats of the line is interesting. What do they do with the goats, eat them or milk them

[@richardmellish2371]

It is generally said to be difficult or impossible to restrict where goats go. If they will be dealing with lineside vegetation, how are they to be kept off the tracks?

[@ceanothus_bluemoon]

The goats restoring important habitat....delightful!

[@GreenSignals]

Indeed!

[@alexisdespland4939]

where exacly are the railway goats i missed the location in the annoucement.

[@chrisgrose5431]

I agree with Richard that changes to contracts usually add to costs. I do wonder, from what I hear from a friend working on one of the sites, whether there would be the opportunity to offer contractors the opportunity to benefit from cost savings. At the moment it appears there is no benefit to them from saving costs. If they could save cost and increase profit there might be a deal to be done.

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

From what I hear the government are going to try to renegotiate only the civil engineering contracts where the bulk of the work is outstanding. That would be in the areas north of Amersham, Bucks. The Contractors working in those areas would feel penalised as the contracts in the areas south of Amersham would not be renegotiated as most of the work has already been carried out. The chances of the government succeeding is therefore zero on that count alone. The 100 million bat tunnel is located in that area so it is under the jurisdiction of those contractors and they will therefore obviously be aware of any other currently unknown ridiculously stupid and costly restrictions that might surface, so again the government will not succeed. If they are adamant the contract rules are to change the contractors will have the right of termination which they will surely take up and walk away leaving the government and HS2 with the problem of finding other contractors. The first job of new contractors taking on a partly completed project by others would be to rectify any defects. As it would not be possible to evaluate the cost of repairing unknown defects they would be carried out at actusl cost. Also, the length of time to make good defects is unknown until all defects are discovered. HS2 will already realise all of these points even if the politicians don't. So the chances of renegotiating anything will be zero.

[@dominiccottrill2387]

If Louise Haigh wants to understand why HS2 is so expensive, take her to a site local to me at Burton Green where they are building a totally unnecessary cut and cover tunnel just to placate the nimbys

[@DIEMLtdTV]

I know an HS2 site where all the workforce stood down for a mental health awareness day with free hot catering. Other days they brought in an ice cream van, free for all. Now, I'm not trivialising the issues here, but bringing professional caterers in is over the top. HS2 can't be trusted with the kitty.

[@taipizzalord4463]

The fact that Labour are using a consultant from KPMG - a pure consultant not even with an rail engineering / civil infrastructure background is jarring. If the all government departments just stopped paying consultants Rachel Reeves would easily have the 'savings' she is looking for.

[@gordondudman240]

I have previously worked with KPMG over two projects and found them to be very good at challenging “but were the railway, and that’s not how we do things” thinking and getting you to justify the decisions taken and then pushing you hard on process control. Having a fresh pair of eyes can at times be very useful.

[@taipizzalord4463]

@@gordondudman240 I understand but having a bean counter who is biased towards cutting rather than expanding scope is the reason why there is so much inertia in the UK for major projects.

[@boxingfan2281]

I think your way out of line with that as KPMG did an amazing job with Carrilion and they had a big part to play in rail engineering/ civil backround. So KPMG have a great track record.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

The Lower Thames Crossing (LTC) in the UK is estimated to cost around £9 billion to build, the project was originally expected to cost £5.3 billion, but costs have increased due to delays and Britain's planning system. National Highways spent £267 million on the LTC's planning application alone. (all this public information). Again, all the expesive bits were not included in the original "ignorant" or dismal planning. After review it really is expensive build however necessary. Maybe they will put KPMG on this too to see what is what ?

[@gordondudman240]

@@taipizzalord4463 Bring asked, “are you sure?” and “how much?” Along with “what did you put in the budget?” Were the challenges I most remember!

[@bishwatntl]

Civil servants are fundamentally risk averse. It's in their culture - most would rather have a committee approve what they say than take a risk. Committees, minutes and files are their way of life. To paraphrase an old saying - those who can, do; those who can't, form committees and talk about doing.

[@johnarnold7870]

Another brilliant episode ta

[@ChrisExley-sk1fh]

Great show again, guys and gal. It's a pity that Richard was not on the board for TRU. On the subject of TRU was the transport and works act Leeds to Micklefield or Church Fenton? I only ask this because of the number of crossing in the proposed closure notice. It would useful to know if the change in guage and bore diameter is going to be a real saving.

[@GreenSignals]

Don't know the answer to that question Chris, but will try and find out!

[@alexisdespland4939]

once all veichels are electric powered are small rural lines better with a smaller more frequent bus services or a very infrequent rail service.. where do you draw the line this would make an intresting future episode.

[@steveworthington930]

Good show chap,s. HS2 has cost a fortune because it,s in tunnel,s through the Shires. I,m on the M6 through the week and see Hgv,s from Eastern Europe regularly, no brainer to ship by rail? Don,t the Swiss insist any Hgv journey over 80 miles has to go by rail? Limit Hgv,s to 6pm to 6am, then off the road. Simples.

[@JJFLUNARMAN]

Reducing the gauge of the rails would make the current HS2 line futile. Europe gauge trains like in HS1 have more capacity to carry passengers.

[@JJFLUNARMAN]

I cannot understand why the HS2 specification required 360km per hour trains when in other countries the speed limit is 300km per hour. If they are going to do a thorough review they should start with that criteria. Secondly they should focus on value engineering aspects of the project (do away with unnecessary infrastructure works to cut costs).

[@Andrewjg_89]

I think that HS2 should continue on to extend to Manchester and to connect with the ECML to York and Newcastle.

[@GreenSignals]

Eastern Leg was the answer to this.

[@gorgu08]

@@GreenSignals but given Eastern leg is not happening would the next best option not be to use NPHR to join HS2 to Leeds and York on new track and then join the ECML thereafter, effectively creating an S route from Edinburgh to Euston….?

[@marionbloom1218]

The whole problem with Sunak's decision is that it had absolutely nothing to do with logic, economy or budgets. It saved very little, but it blew away all the value. It was just a last ditch attention to try and gain a few political points with the electorate, a drowning man grasping at straws. If this point could be got across and the stupidity of the decision acknowledged, the landscape of arguments for completion would be so much simpler!

[@GreenSignals]

Agreed. No argument there.

[@Cartoonman154]

54:07 and the next bridge. Those are alright designs. It's better than the depressing concrete crap that is replacing stone arches.

[@TheDaf95xf]

Fantastic as always Nigel Richard & Stef 😊 Can’t wait to see some goats 🐐 wearing Network Rail orange hi viz coats lol 😂 See ya next Thursday 🤩

[@chairmakerPete]

One problem with HS2 was the apparent desperation to start digging. It turns out most of the costs weren't known, the property acquisition alone ran wildly out of control and over budget. The trains weren't even designed!!! To build a railway without any clue what rolling stock was to be used cannot be sensible. Why, incidentally, didn't we just get the French to build it and put their TGVs on it? Proven trains and expertise in high speed rail 🤷‍♂ No more HS anything with government in charge of it. Their decisions are politically motivated and not based in any trace of project management and delivery. You should balance the show with some guests who question HS2. It's a bit of a love-in, very enjoyable though it is.

[@GreenSignals]

No project of this scale anywhere in the world KNOWS the likely outturn costs before it begins. Not in France, not in Spain, not in China - not anywhere. Crossrail cost 3 times the original estimate tabled to Parliament. Who cares? Answer - no-one at all. London and the South East has benefited enormously and the economic benefits will outweigh the costs many times over. The property acquisition costs of HS2 risk being the biggest non issue of all. Of course they couldn't have been known with certainty at the outset. If the emerging costs were hidden from view, that's a different matter entirely - I accept that. But not the fact that it will end up costing more than originally thought. The extra £2bn or so in property costs of acquiring land for a highly complex route through some of the most emotive land in Western Europe will be a rounding error when compared to the hundreds of billions of stimulated economic growth of the useful life of the railway. Where do we think the French got their proven expertise? It was by starting with one line and getting the costs wrong. But then learning from it and keeping a steady programme of work in play over a number of years, each project building on the experience gained from previous projects. The very thing we find so difficult to do in the UK. That's the number one thing we need to change in this country.

[@joegrey9807]

@@chairmakerPete you build infrastructure to fit the service requirement and what's practicable with contemporary train design limitations and the laws of physics. When the trains become life expired you design a new lot, in some cases tweaking the infrastructure to get the most out of technological changes. But you don't need to design the trains before you've started building the railway - with the respective lead times for each you probably want to wait a bit to take advantage of technological changes.

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

​@GreenSignals I thought Crossrail went from circa 13 billion to circa 19 billion. But you are right in saying the final outturn cost is only known when the project is finished. I worked on putting a bid cost together for the Crossrail completion contract to Tottenham Court Road. The company I worked for had already won Farringdon Station and the tunnelling to the western section of Crossrail. All the Crossrail contracts were let on an all risk, fixed price basis. But the scope of works didn't pick up everything, hence the costs rose. When a construction site like HS2 is 100 miles long it is impossible to pick up 100% of the scope of works and that is why the contracts have been let on a cost plus basis which the government are now going to try to renegotiate on the contracts with a lot of outstanding work to do. Try they will. Succeed in passing all the risk over to the Contractors they won't.

[@chairmakerPete]

@@joegrey9807 can't agree with any of that. Frankly we should have called in the French to build the entire thing - they know how to do HS projects, and have the rolling stock / signalling / procedures all figured out. It's sheer lunacy to start a project of this scope trying to invent things as you go along. Nobody would launch an airline with the planes still as sketches on the back of envelopes. The whole HS2 project smacks of "let's get started and we'll work it out as we go along". That's a recipe for costs to spiral, as indeed they have. Rail technology isn't exactly cutting edge. It's not progressing like Elon Musk's space rockets. The idea that these new HS2 trains will be some giant leap forward from anything else is extremely doubtful. They'll still have drivers (why?), will probably serve horrible tea and coffee, and won't be some brave new world of mass transit. Politicians have blundered into this project to be seen to be doing something, rather than waiting for the bugs to be ironed out of it before lurching off the start line.

[@chairmakerPete]

@@GreenSignals very respectfully, I completely disagree! We should have contracted HS2 out to the French and/or Chinese (maybe even the Germans) who have vast experience and have gone through the pain barrier multiple times already, as you state. Give them a 50 year design-and-operate contract so they have to build it properly in the first place. A competitive tender between those nations would have gained us certainty over costs, a fair price, (not necessarily a cheap deal), and rolling stock that already exists and is debugged and ready to go. Equally importantly, the contract can place cost overruns on the contractor, not the treasury. There's simply no excuse in not having the property costs known far more accurately than they have been. We started the project with too many unknowns, not least the rolling stock designs and costs, and now even the things folks thought were known like property have overrun. (And yes, I'm not talking to the penny, but let's get within a couple of hundred million or so, lest we get into serious money!). You say nobody cares about budget overruns, (would dispute that), to which the question must be 'why budget at all then?'. If the numbers are simply picked out of thin air and it's a nod and a wink that they are a lie floated get the project started, better to say to the taxpayer "we've honestly no idea what this will cost but we'll do our best to control expenses, and you'll all love it when it's done". That would at least have some sense of honesty about it - something the rail industry lacks with the man on the street who sees an industry that appears to be run largely for the benefit of the industry, not the passengers. The project was publicly styled as being about speed, now it's about capacity (accepting that within the industry perhaps it always was about capacity, but why not make the case for that with Joe Public rather than speed?). Call it HC1 and build it with a minimum of four tracks, a loading gauge that takes double-decker trains and double-stack containers as in the US, and so forth. It looks to the casual observer awfully like the contractors are having a party with charging extras at the taxpayers' expense. Great show though - please accept my comments as being from one outside the bubble looking in! 😉

[@ogo2l]

Perfect Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance! Did anyone know what HS2 was for?

[@steamdrivenandy6880]

One other local point about HS2A. Somebody we know sold their house to HS2 Ltd and moved out about 3 weeks ago. Their house is close to the proposed southern portal of the tunnel under Bar Hill. Why, are HS2 Ltd still buying up property 11 months after the project was cancelled. Is there a secret agenda going on here?

[@gorgu08]

Itnis clearly still going to happen but will be a different spec and called Staffordshire connector

[@GreenSignals]

Could well have been a blight issue - they take a long time to fix. No new property has been purchased as far as I know since Sunak's decision.

[@steamdrivenandy6880]

All I know is that the family moved out 3 weeks ago, having lived there for decades. I have no idea when the actual sale to HS2 happened.

[@gbphil]

A genuine question hopefully requiring a detailed response. In regards to HS2 etc, having European track separation and European high speeds (187) line sight specification makes sense should there be an intention to run both wider trains and double decker trains all the way down to the foot of Italy / South of France / med coast of Spain and Portugal. I would love to put my car on a train in Manchester and get off at Bari or Cadiz. Without any trains heading for the HS1 line, what are the benefits of British design limits compared to project costs? It is presumed train sets will be renewed every 25 years so performance could be introduced in future programs depending upon intentions. For instance travelling at 140 instead of 187 from Old Oak to Birmingham could be sabotaged if it takes an extra five minutes to find a second disabled ramp with a second person to deploy it at Birmingham International. 😎😇

[@jbbumpkin]

It was my understanding that the original idea was for HS2 to indeed be connected to HS1 thus provinding a link to the Continent as an alternative to flying.

[@alexisdespland4939]

when was the last motoreail train run.

[@GreenSignals]

1995 I believe.

[@anthonypowell5665]

Richard one railway forum online said there was a price online among the graffitiests to see who could be the first to tag thhis first ever 2024. Overall opinion was that they were following its progress using realtime trains so were lying in wait

[@screwdriver5181]

One of the reasons why our rolling stock is so expensive is that any standard EU design has to be extensively modified to fit the UK loading gauge. In Europe almost any design will run anywhere, so called economies of scale. In many places our so called “6ft” doesn’t even meet that. We should be aiming to open up our loading gauge . Think of all the EU high speed trains that spend their first and last few km on traditional lines. Another blow forHS2 is therefore having new stations and dual KE vehicles.

[@GreenSignals]

So you think that 'opening up the loading gauge' is more cost effective than modifying the design of rolling stock which if done from the outset is a relatively low cost anyway?

[@simoncroft9792]

Hope these rumours are correct, savings suggestion for phase 2 - stop putting it all in deep cuttings and standardise the under/overbridges surely we can learn from phase 1 where nearly every bridge seems to be different method of construction!

[@GreenSignals]

The alignment is fixed for Phase 2a and the powers are whatever is set out in the Act.

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

I think the project has different Architects. No chance then of standardising bridge designs as the Architects will all want to put their own stamp on things. It's the British way.

[@davetrugeon]

Piss poor planning leads to piss poor performance Planning and procurement Leaders and staff all need to be aware before the start of

[@SimonPJohnson]

Perhaps Louise Haigh needs some new SpAds before a SPAD occurs and she’s relieved of her ministerial red boxes

[@steamdrivenandy6880]

HS2A 'with only one tunnel'? Well I'm sat in the corner of North Staffs, hardby the edge of both Shropshire and Cheshire and HS2A was due to run in a tunnel under Whitmore, then a viaduct over WCML and into another tunnel through Bar Hill to emerge out into Cheshire and a run down into Crewe. So I'm not sure where 'just one tunnel' comes from

[@ZengoMay]

Without any industry expertise or knowledge ministers and civil servants will try to prescribe how the project should proceed. Outcomes and consequences will be dire.

[@GreenSignals]

We should certainly focus individuals on where their skills and experience lie.

[@noeldunford4955]

Good day green signals all railways in this country are very important imagine if we had no railways

[@GreenSignals]

Would rather not!

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

Will it go to Crewe ? HS2 recently announced a project reset in an attempt to get the escalating costs under control. They think it will take 18 months to achieve that goal. More likely, it will never be achieved but that won't stop them from trying.. That's just to get phase 1 under control. An almighty row is brewing between the Contractors and HS2 as resetting the project will require renegotiation of the existing contracts. Inevitably setting up contracts to take the line to Crewe will take a back seat.

[@GreenSignals]

No Ministerial led committee will ever get any project 'under control'.

[@TrevorWilliams-fq8mg]

I agree. But it won't stop them from trying.. I can't see how they can even attempt it unless they pause the works to renegotiate the rules of engagement. That would leave the door open for the Contractors to determine the contracts.

[@Tarkaman1]

The DfT make a plan and then change it and fail to learn from the past...GWR Electrification anyone?

[@anthonysmith3015]

Did you say HS2 needs an “Executioner”?

[@GreenSignals]

I did not - and I suspect you know I did not….😎

[@BenRattigan]

Still think it should have been built north to south, politically it would have been easier and made the argument against phase 1 impossible.

[@GreenSignals]

It just wouldn't have delivered anything meaningful until it reached London. Everything would have had to go south from Handsacre onto existing WCML routes and how, out of interest, would have Birmingham to London services have fared?

[@gorgu08]

@@GreenSignals I disagree on this point a Manchester to Birmingham Shuttle would have boosted the second and third largest conurbations in the UK and would also have provided a new WCML bypass for Stafford from day one….!

[@anthonypowell5665]

I think we will see it resurrected but different name and being privately funded

[@watcherzero5256]

Pretty much yeah, HS2 name is toxic particularly to more conservative and Southern voters who feel like its billions spent that wont directly benefit them, but is overwhelmingly desired by Northern and most Midland voters. The scheme is still required. So they need a new palatable name for the same scheme, calling it something like the Birmingham-Manchester/Liverpool line. I think they also need a marketing strategy that tackles the people that will say there is already a line by emphasising what they will do with released capacity, i.e. new/more frequent services and more freight, not solely benefiting the cities at the termini of the route.

[@andrewhotston983]

"Privately funded", like all those PFI hospitals that the taxpayers pay through the nose for? Great! 😫

[@dominiccottrill2387]

Is someone going to sue Gilligan for libel?

[@andrewhotston983]

No! Because for a libel suit to succeed, reputational damage must be proved, and the reputation of HS2 is already in the gutter!

[@marionbloom1218]

I understand the new Piccadilly line trains make room for the aircon equipment underneath the floor, by using an articulated design so halving the number of bogies needed. Also they claim regenerative braking and more coasting will reduce heat output so partly offsetting the heat output from the aircon; however they have also indicated that there might need to be more air shafts installed to get rid of the heat. So don't expect this to go without some problems!

[@GreenSignals]

Ah, that's very interesting - thanks.

[@andrewhotston983]

Why is Andrew Gilligan criticised for hyperbole for exaggerating the financial farce of HS2, but Henry Murison can talk about "the impending collapse of the WCML" and isn't challenged at all? In the USA railways collapsed, but only after the managements ceased to spend any money on maintenance. There's no likelihood of that happening to the WCML, is there?

[@Adam-pk2te]

I think They mean Collapse in terms of Capacity available to meet demand without major issues or constant delays

[@stephendavies6949]

Why is Andrew Gilligan anywhere near decisions relating to national infrastructure?

[@andrewhotston983]

@@Adam-pk2te Not the most apposite word, then!

[@andrewhotston983]

@@stephendavies6949 He isn't.

[@Adam-pk2te]

@@stephendavies6949 Exactly!

[@EdgyNumber1]

Just GET. IT. BUILT. FFS!!

[@Minecraft-pj4hm]

Any chance of it going in reverse and giving us - the Taxpayer- our wasted billions back.

[@thomasgregson102]

Lord Hendy confirmed yesterday that the land for phase 2 would be ring-fenced in the Lords, which is not the best timing for you to making this episode.

[@martinbotting6703]

Could it be that Haigh’s Phase 2 Review provides a substantive independent authoritative report to counter the half-baked ill informed sniping of the likes of Gilligan if Phase 2B does re-start?

[@GreenSignals]

No, and Lou Haigh's review is Phase 1, not Phase 2.

[@douglasmclay9134]

Whilst its true that current road and rail infrastructure is getting overloaded why is the only solutions being considered is to build new road and rail links? No one seems to ask do all these people need to travel regularly huge distances in connection with work? Our current trajectory is clearly unsustainable in the long run for economic, climate change and environmental reasons. In the longterm we should be remodelling the economy to bring people and their work close to their work in such a way that people are not economically disadvantaged by not working in the South East. This could clear the rail and road network for freight and passenger and leisure travel.

[@oldestnic]

Railways are about freight. The problem between Birmingham and Manchester/Liverpool/Leeds is lack of capacity road/rail to support any increase in freight. This is why no one will build a new large production facility almost anywhere in the UK. Contrast with any other country in Europe where production has expanded over the last 50 years, in the UK in real terms it has not, in fact it has shrunk very substantially. Pick an industry and look at the statistics over the period from 1965 to present. Passenger traffic is a different subject, and a high speed passenger line was always less important than increasing capacity. If you want to talk about passenger capacity look at the failure of the UK in air transport,

[@robertwalsh1724]

Never throw the car keys to a falling down drunk when you are sitting in the back seat. The pols have done harm to HS2 and in the long run raised the cost all for what? Keep the uniformed and uninterested out of complex projects.

[@GreenSignals]

A graphic analogy Bob, but take your point!

[@slimchris113]

Too much reviews to waste time Just build it in full in the original plans, no other alternatives are better.

[@slimchris113]

Plus East Midlands and North East always get shafted for some reason

[@andrewhotston983]

I wouldn't trust this government to deliver newspapers, let alone a new railway. All these briefings to journalists are just words, and this government has already shown that it can U-turn at the drop of a hat, regardless of how stupid it makes them look!

[@LetsGo_41]

I love the way they keep saying a bypass through Staffordshire is going to make it more economical for Staffordshire when all the county is doing is getting chopped up to accommodate a railway line that goes through it to other parts of the country, doesn't stop or provide any access to it in Staffordshire. So really there is no economic benefit unlike what this Henri guy says. All we'll get is massive disruption. We've had one massive bypass put through West Midlands which has done dick. It's a classic example of Green Signals ignoring what's in front of them just cos they like the idea of another railway line. They also haven't considered that when renewable fueled and electric trucks come into the main stream Trains will be rendered useless as trucks will be able to drive straight to the front door of the business, be cheaper and won't be hamstrung by the union barrons like the railways are. I am all for making the railways more effective and productive but constantly chopping up the country side is not it. Especially when we've seen expensive bypasses do sweet FA.

[@lukjzu]

Clearly shows your lack of understanding of traffic management. Running express service on dedicated lines means that more local/stopping trains can run on existing lines. Also electric trucks do sweet FA to solving road congestion, mining materials for EVs are also harmful to the environment, also doesn't stop pollution from rubber tyres.

[@LetsGo_41]

⁠@@lukjzuwhere do they get the metal from to make metal wheels that go on trains from? We already have an express service that goes from Stafford to London in around an hour or less. The only thing that gets in the way is Avanti West Coast itself and their shocking service. Staffordshire doesn’t get any benefit as it goes from Lichfield through Staffordshire and ends up in Crewe which is Cheshire. You can’t access it from any line that is currently in Staffordshire so we don’t get any benefit from it and the express train that we can access is already the quickest it will ever get it. So please go away and do something else.

[@LetsGo_41]

Also whilst we’re at it. If you think haulage companies will switch from road to rail you massively deluded. Starters the cost and secondly they will just switch the fuel on the trucks and carry on their merry way. We have to stop electric trains running on the existing network cos we don’t have the capacity in the electric system and also they cost too much cos of the cost in electricity at the moment. So you’re basically reliant on a volatile power source to move freight about. Stop kidding yourself.

[@andrewhotston983]

​@@lukjzuAt present, Staffordshire has a service of express trains. HS2 will end all that - how is that an improvement for Staffordshire?

[@cathybrind2381]

@@LetsGo_41 Glad you're not a transport planner. Um, are you?????

[@richardprice6488]

Thanks

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers Richard. Much appreciated!

[@robertwalsh1724]

Thanks!

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers Bob!

[@petestuart6584]

Thanks

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers Pete. Much appreciated!

[@allanarpollock9683]

Thanks

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers Allan. Very much appreciated - and apologies we've not said thanks till now.

[@Rondav1000]

Thanks

[@GreenSignals]

Cheers Ron. Very much appreciated - and apologies we've not said thanks till now.