環球股市波動和美國減息預期下，紐西蘭元成為高息的外滙避險資產，澳紐，英鎊歐元比較 (莊太量)

[@kayanmak7315]

謝謝

[@profterencechongtheeconomi8391]

Welcome Kayan

[@jasoneinstein7986]

莊教授 想問一下如果大學生想做下research in macroeconomics 應該點做好😢🤔

[@profterencechongtheeconomi8391]

Depends on if you would like to work on academic papers or policy papers. For academic papers, you need to have training on related maths and modelling. So you may need to take the respective master or phd courses. For policy papers, the most important thing is to identify the problem and provide feasible solution. Undergraduate level trainning will be enough. Economists are different from people without econonmic training in that we are very rational. We dont make decisions based on impulse, "morality" or good heart, as policy decisions based on these factors will create more social and economic problems. For example, making the public transportation free for everyone looks like a good policy that makes everyone happy, but in fact it will create traffic congestion and people cannot go to work and hospital. Just imagine a pregnant woman rushing to the hospital to give birth but was trapped in traffic for 5 hours. So the most important thing for doing economic research is to think like an economist.

[@FaiJohn-sy9ol]

❤

[@jackyykk]

莊教授, 謝謝分享 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻 日元拆倉, 環球股市下跌, 港股會唔會影響比較少？因為之前D外資已走了不少, 留在港股的資金大多是有實力的。

[@profterencechongtheeconomi8391]

日元拆倉影響不到港股，可以放在港元或美元定期

[@anthonyyan2816]

我强力見議持有人民幣最保值及最安全貨幣。

[@ww9971]

How about convert hkd into usd to buy US treasury for locking high yield? The exchange rate of usd/hkd is also good now

[@profterencechongtheeconomi8391]

The thing is the cost of two-side conversion. For example, if there is a 2 percent spread for one way conversion from hkd to usd , and another 2 percent from usd to hkd, the total cost is already 4 percent. So you may not earn much.

[@ww9971]

@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 the spread is not that much. I should be 0.25%-0.35% at bank in hk without getting preferential fx rate. And the hk dollar is quite strong recently at around 7.794 spot.

[@kh1234-x3b]

這2個的思路合理嗎？ 1. 賺人民幣的港股估值低，同時對沖了美元下跌。可以在減息衰退初期搏下。即使下跌，大約也就萬一到萬四。 2. BBB評級長年期公司債，只要不倒閉便可以。

[@profterencechongtheeconomi8391]

The price of A share should have already taken into account the RMB exchange rate risk factor, that is also partly why the price of A share and H share are not the same.

[@知道吳-s3t]

教授，纽子八月中會否减息！

[@profterencechongtheeconomi8391]

May need a longer time, even inflation is dropping quickly. I guess if inflation falls below 3 percent for 2 consecutive months, the interest rate will be cut.