I did a quantitative analysis to predict the most probable next Mario game!

How likely is it that the plot of the next Mario game will be about Peach getting kidnapped?
How likely is Bowser going to be the villain?
If Bowser is the villain, is it more or less likely that the game takes place in the mushroom kingdom?
What is the most likely release date for our plumber's next grand adventure?
And most importantly, is princess peach more or less likely to be kidnapped if Yoshi is a gameplay element?
Ín this video we are going to answer all those questions.
We are going to take a look at the story of every single mainline Mario game that Nintendo ever released and we will try to quantify those stories.
Once we have our data we will take a look at how likely certain things are to happen in the Mario series in general and what the Mario game on the Nintendo Switch 2 is most likely to be like.
---------- / Patreon /
patreon.com/ceave
----------- / Credits for the Music /
-------Nintendo
Mario and Luigi: Superstar Saga OST - “Teehee Valley”
Super Mario Bros. 2 OST - “Character Selection”
Super Mario 64 OST - “Powerful Mario”
Super Mario Sunshine OST - “Secret Course Medley”
Super Mario 3D World OST - “Double Cherry Pass”
Super Mario World OST - “”Overworld”
------Holfix / holfix
HolFix - Beyond The Kingdom
• [Free Music] HolFix - ...
------Kevin MacLeod "Adventure Meme"
Kevin MacLeod incompetech.com Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 creativecommons...

[@GSSecondBranch]

The chance of the next mario game featuring bowser getting kidnapped by peach is low but never zero

[@nathansos8480]

that would be funny tho

[@aturchomicz821]

Super Princess Peach 2 /s

[@TheMegaMarshtomp]

I would pay money for this.

[@rubiusstudios5709]

Statistically it is zero. Unless there's a game it happens in that I'm forgetting

[@Doktario_Mystario]

@@rubiusstudios5709 in Mario & Luigi Bowser's Inside Story there are a few times Mario, Luigi & Starlow rescue Bowser but it's either the fault of Fawful or the giant bosses

[@sirglitchalot911]

Ceave overthinking the definition of kidnapping makes this video 50% better

[@goryvirus7758]

Is that quantitatively calculated?

[@AllToastersToastToast]

Sounds like classic Ceave to me. But that's what makes him great.

[@soulsand4287]

@@goryvirus7758 no, I calculated an increase of the square root of negative infinity%

[@KnuckleHunkybuck]

For a minute there, he started to sound like he was Bowser's defense attorney.

[@lucyinchat]

@@soulsand4287 you have an infinite imagination. That is to say, ♾️i%.

[@FafliXx]

"Luigi is not a princess." YOU TAKE THAT BACK

[@aaronTGP_3756]

Technically no, spiritually yes.

[@leonardomartins8944]

Luigi is a *QUEEEN* The chess set proves it

[@PotofGlue]

Brawl luigi be like

[@kkkkkkkkiond9077]

luigi i just want to touch you🎵🎵🎵

[@CouldBeChara]

​@@leonardomartins8944 exactly! Luigi most likely was a princess in the past , but as of right now he is a queen not a princess Imo ceave needed a royalty kidnapping counter in between general and princess

[@benjitheheron]

Ceave constantly changing the kidnapping counter to accurately reflect the nature of the kidnappings is just one of many reasons i love his stuff

[@aturchomicz821]

Thats such a long running joke on this channel now and I love it just as much as I did in what 2017 now? Just good solid comedy, love it!

[@roderik1990]

True, though I disagree on some of edge cases that he counted or not counted in this quest.

[@qrpth]

I can't believe that Ceave forgot about I am a teacher: Super Mario Sweater, the most important game in the series.

[@ender_fire7994]

I can’t either! This is very out of character for him

[@aH00man]

Also no mention of the Nelsonic Game Watch, truly a highlight of the series

[@thischannelisforcommenting5680]

Is this video a part of mainline is this super mario game series categorization tho?

[@Neopolis3]

Kung Fu Peach, patissiere, how many Super Mario Games are there?!

[@BryanLu0]

​@@thischannelisforcommenting5680I would not consider this mainline, because the mainline series is by Jan misali. This is more like a spiritual successor, in that it's made by someone else without direct blessing from the original creator

[@TheRandomizer47]

You forgot that in Mario Odyssey Cappy's sister Tiara gets kidnapped by Bowser too. Also at the end of almost every level in Mario Wonder a poplin has been falsely imprisoned. This is a really great video. I love how Yoshi being there almost certainly means Peach will get kidnapped. 😂

[@Marowak31]

He also forgot that in Super Mario 3D Land Luigi gets kidnapped (even though not by Bowser technically)

[@TheRandomizer47]

Oh and Luigi gets kidnapped / falsely Imprisoned in Mario Galaxy a few times as well

[@shiftnshake]

Wait, don't Mario, Luigi, and Wario also get kidnapped in Super Mario 64 DS as well?

[@BeantheSnom]

I think Peach's kidnapping takes priority over anyone else's Still doesn't excuse the Poplins being forgotten in Wonder

[@CarlMakesVideos]

If we're going to count the multiple poplins, we should definitely count that there were 8 sprixie princesses(?) in 3d world.

[@RDSk0]

34:32 A mistake here: you have to divide by 20, not 21, as that is the amount of gaps between the Mario game releases.

[@RDSk0]

You end up with an aveage of 695.8 days between releases and a release date of September 15th, 2025 at 7:12 pm

[@maribakumon]

Classic off by one error

[@The-EJ-Factor]

@@RDSk0I’ll be marking my calendar for sure.

[@ruolbu]

thanks, I caught that too, good to see the peer review is working as intended.

[@andermium]

The fence post problem, a classic

[@MousaThe14]

6 minutes in and I’m already getting Jan Misali flashbacks. “How do we know what’s mainline? The whole thing is senseless ‘cause there’s no consensus”

[@BraxtonMeyer]

i need to watch that again i think.

[@AndrewS-vu4ji]

Ceave gaming x jan Misali collab would go crazy

[@2DCheese]

HOW MANY "SUPER" MARIO GAMES ARE THERE 🗣🗣🔥🔥

[@BryanLu0]

HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT'S MAINLINE *headbanging*

[@endernightblade1958]

I AM A TEACHER SUPER MARIO SWEATER

[@benjaminschmitt1562]

Can’t believe Ceave forgot about the most influential mainline Mario game, I Am A Teacher: Super Mario Sweater. The data is incomplete without this crucial information.

[@RenéSotoPenalba]

Jan Misali reference

[@CGFillertext]

Yes, we can’t rule out the possibility of the next Super Mario game including a sweater making tutorial

[@MungkaeX]

I firmly believe that this missing data will skew the outcome in unexpected ways. Perhaps the next Mario game will be an open world exploration game with everything unlocked at the start, but instead of Ceave’s prediction it will be a 3d Mario game, it’s actually a 2d Mario game with a massive interconnected map so large that it would require a Nintendo Power style full page layout of multiple pages to even begin to fully grasp the scale?

[@RenéSotoPenalba]

@ I’d love to see actual data that includes every single Mario game, spinoff or not

[@katsoshiroui]

if yoshi is in 2/7 mario 64s, then the mushroom kingdom should be in 1/17 mario odysseys

[@Doktario_Mystario]

three of the "kingdoms" are part of the Moon Kingdom

[@katsoshiroui]

@@Doktario_Mystario it never specifies that they are "kingdoms", just places you can go to with the odyssey

[@privatepumpkin7095]

​@@katsoshirouiIt does though, it specifies that each one is a kingdom. Also there are 17 kingdoms and Idk how many kingdoms he's in exactly, but it's more than one. Also 1/17 of the game is in the mushroom kingdom and 3/17 of the game is in outer space

[@squibble08]

and space!

[@TheChemical294]

additionally, there should be a 1/42 of a mushroom kingdom for galaxy 1 and a 1/50 of a mushroom kingdom for galaxy 2 (since the mushroom kingdom is the prologue to galaxy 2 and is not considered it's own galaxy... actually, would it be half a galaxy? would that make a 1/100 of a mushroom kingdom?)

[@octanproductions6492]

If Jan Misali ever makes a third "How many Super Mario games are there?" video this video would probably show some interesting series opinions on what is mainline

[@MungkaeX]

While the Donkey Kong argument is debatable, I do find myself disappointed by the omission of the original Mario Bros game. Granted it contains neither Yoshi, Bowser, any Kidnapping, not the Mushroom Kingdom; but it clearly is a Mario game.

[@TicTacToeCraft]

​@@MungkaeX So is Mini Mario & Friends: Amiibo Challenge, but it's far from mainline. The mainline series starts with Super Mario Bros. (1985).

[@beegman27]

how exactly? Ceave's perspective would just be one compared to the thousands JM took. satistically a drop on the bucket

[@MungkaeX]

@@TicTacToeCraft Mini Mario is himself a different character, like Paper Mario.

[@TicTacToeCraft]

@MungkaeX Okay, but most other games in the Mario vs. DK series feature Mario as the main character, and few would consider those mainline.

[@GSSecondBranch]

Do note that correlation of statistics doesnt necessarily represents causation, so Yoshi existing doesn't necessarily influence bowser to kidnap peach, it could be that yoshi existing is caused by bowser kidnapping peach, or it could be coincidence. Just thought to point that out.

[@FearfulFellow]

Or both could be caused by a completely separate data point

[@GSSecondBranch]

exactly

[@jimmya]

@@FearfulFellow That said, he’s not arguing for causation (well not seriously anyway) he’s arguing for correlation. If an unrelated factor is influencing both Yoshi and kidnapping, then Yoshi could still be a statistically significant indicator of kidnapping.

[@NoriMori1992]

Or they could both be caused by yet another factor.

[@PoyoPowerPlant]

"I don't want to be hyped tomorrow. I want to be hyped today" is so relatable 😅

[@TeknightJ]

Counterpoint: Some of the mainline Mario games feature a multi-kidnapping. Some primary examples are Odyssey (Where Tiara also gets kidnapped) and 3D World (Where there's a whole bunch of kidnappings, 7 to be exact, but then they all get kidnapped again after being un-kidnapped, so it's more like 14, but it's probably counted as 7 for the same reason as the Peach double-kidnapping but then again, Peach never got locked up during the first kidnapping, but the Sprixies did, so... I think I've made my point)

[@BryanLu0]

See 14:45 He's not interested in how many kidnappings will happen in the next game, but whether or not there will be a kidnapping

[@victzegopterix2]

5:04 Contrary to popular misconception, Toads are not transformed into ALL the blocks we see in the first SMB. The booklet also states in the 9th page about Power-Ups: "Mario, Super Mario, Invincible Mario, etc. Mario's Friends If you come across mushrooms that have been turned into bricks or made invisible, they reward you by giving you a power boost. With each boost Mario changes into a different, more powerful Mario, as shown below." Checkmate Game Theory's cherry-picking. Only the ?-blocks are transformed Toads. Mario is not a genocidal maniac. The Jumpman thing is also a retroactive misconception but I'm too lazy to find the source for that again. I think Jon Misali's 2hour-long vid about the Super Mario series is where I learned it.

[@noyz-anything]

is it the ?-blocks that are transformed toads, or is it the brick blocks with items

[@YarnDuckGet]

@@noyz-anything Probably the former, because "invisible" seems to refer to the invisible 1-up blocks in that game. Invisible blocks are mainly depicted as being gray and transparent ?-blocks.

[@Some_Rando-jm2ny]

Very cool video, but you made a mistake in one of your calculations. To get the average wait time between Mario games, you would divide not by the total amount of Mario games, but by the the total minus one. This is because there was no wait time for the first game. There have only been 20 wait times versus the 21 games. We take this knowledge to get the wait time of 13916/20 = 695.8 meaning the next Mario game is probable to come out on September 14th 2025, 35 days later than the misguided prediction. Edit: Fun fact: This is a common mistake, and is generally referred to as the the fence post principle/problem. This is because a fence with n sections would have n+1 posts, given that a post is on both sides of a section.

[@youtubeuniversity3638]

What if the fence makes a closed loop? 4 posts in a square, 4 sections connecting them?

[@MrbaldRevell-c6z]

or we could divide the age of the universe by the amount of mario games

[@augisterman3685]

I mean, if you think about it, Bowser kind of got kidnapped in Bowser's Fury because he was possessed by the black goo, so he was mentally kidnapped in a way.

[@coolgabe555]

He also forcefully transported mario which you could argue is a kidnapping

[@yeahsureb]

29:23 correlation vs. causation strikes again 😂

[@theAstarrr]

5:39 What about Mario Bros, the plumbing game without Super in it? That one has Mario as Mario lol

[@Sam_on_YouTube]

So it takes place after Donkey Kong, when he has a taste for adventure (since he wasn't a plumber yet in that one), but before the first SMB game.

[@globalincident694]

It's not in the "Super Mario series". Or at least, it isn't for the purposes of this list.

[@aturchomicz821]

@@globalincident694 🎶But- How many Mainline games are there??🤪🎶 kzbin.info/www/bejne/pJvQXqejrdeKfMk

[@bytesabre]

Also “Mario is missing!” is missing

[@Mimi.1001]

@@bytesabre The vast majority of people would consider that to be a Spin-Off, not a main line game. If you would count Mario's Missing, you might as well count the RPGs.

[@jaxsonnaylor249]

"Analyze all the mainline Mario games" jan misali has awoken...

[@wolfetteplays8894]

What if bowser mistakenly kidnaps daisy this time? That way, we can play as peach

[@flaccidpancake2813]

That’s a good point

[@spiritbaki108]

He can also take the Mario Party DS approach and kidnap DK

[@MouseEnjoyer]

no way in hell would Daisy of all people allow herself to be kidnapped

[@LoremIpsum1919]

@MouseEnjoyer It happened in Super Mario Land 1

[@MouseEnjoyer]

@@LoremIpsum1919 shhhhhhhh

[@Anto-qv6kt]

Wow I can't believe Big Hype would strongarm Nintendo into submission like this. Thank goodness we have Ceave to re-hype us up using mathematics. Nitimur in vetitum.

[@DJPastaYaY]

Yo new Ceave video!!!!

[@bingzoid]

its you!

[@DJPastaYaY]

@ Hi!!

[@bingzoid]

@ love your music

[@DJPastaYaY]

@ Thank you!

[@floresilla]

You can only get comment interactions this wholesome on ceaves channel

[@Thisisme61554]

Well now you have to mix this with the Jan Misali video of what exactly is a mainline mario game. Because a lot of people don't agree on that.

[@TicTacToeCraft]

Yoshi's Island is a mainline Yoshi game, not a mainline Mario game.

[@lasercraft32]

Ceave out of context: "First, this here I'd like to call *our kidnapping counter."*

[@BryanLu0]

Ceave, I can't believe you haven't considered the fact that Game & Watch is potentially the first entry into the Mario series

[@raymondkertezc364]

26:26 I was hoping you would take into account trends in data over time, like how not having Bowser was more more common in early games, and then you did it! Wonderful!

[@Hambrack]

18:24 Same thing happens in 64. The game takes place in Peach's Castle. Also, 3D World has multiple kidnapped Princesses. And Cappy's sister is also kidnapped in Odissey. Where does that influence the counter? Multiple kidnappings of the same person only count as one, sure, but what about the singular kidnapping of several people?

[@ruolbu]

the Mario 64 info is interesting, I guess he knew but waited until later for the better comedic timing to alter the timer name. for the kidnappings I'll quote another comment from here: See 14:45 He's not interested in how many kidnappings will happen in the next game, but whether or not there will be a kidnapping

[@Shaynimations]

CEAVE!!! I always *rejoice* when I see you post! Genuinely the best Nintendo KZbinr in my opinion.

[@yeahsureb]

In my humble onion

[@NotReal4]

I forgot how good these videos were, great vid as always!

[@kogmawmain8872]

5:06 well, it says that mushroom people got turned into brick blocks. It doesn't state that brick blocks aren't also a natural occurence. So we don't know for sure if ALL brick blocks are mushroom people.

[@GODDAMNLETMEJOIN]

I think the implication is that all the item blocks are toads but all the blocks that break are just bricks

[@awkie]

“every mainline mario game”? jan Misali’s voice is ringing in my ears,,,

[@Arrowstotle]

When the GOAT uploads, I heed the call

[@TallyBoi_YouTube]

Astounding work abiding by the rule of law, fellow soldier.

[@mermaidpotato]

Legitimately might show this to my students as part of a qualitative data analysis lesson. The agonizing process of refining the definitions as you go is so well lampooned here!!

[@xinpingdonohoe3978]

That's why one should study real mathematics. Rigorous, unambiguous definitions and rules.

[@lowkey_Ioki]

@@xinpingdonohoe3978 And then you realize that mathematics is worthless without using it to represent ambiguously defined things.

[@xinpingdonohoe3978]

@@lowkey_Ioki not really. Mathematics for mathematics' sake is enough. It can then be applied to inferior things like the "real world", but that's wholly unnecessary.

[@RTB-x2f]

The bricks that Toads turned into are the ones that give you items, such as 1-ups or coins, so you can’t actually destroy them.

[@ruolbu]

you can in later games 😏

[@GeoffreyBrown-rn3rd]

"all 21 mainline mario games" jan misali watchers: oh sweet boy, you've got another thing coming

[@PowerSimplified1871]

Ceave is going down into Vsauce valley.

[@MusicVersa]

KZbin actually put this in my recommended videos feed this morning! I didn't have to find out it existed through Patreon! Hoo-ray!

[@johb3930]

I disagree with Yoshi's Island counting as a mainline Mario game. It is not a "Mario" game but a "Yoshi" game. It may have the "Super Mario" title but it's significantly different from Mario games. If one was to insist on including it all other "Yoshi's Island" games, which are much more similar to it, should be included as well.

[@DanielDugovic]

Now I'm curious if Nintendo could benefit from an open-world "Yoshi" game.

[@Envy_May]

the original yoshi's island was developed by the same team as the other super mario games, whereas the other yoshi's islands were outsourced to third parties iirc - so they're basically spin-offs building off the first yoshi's island the developers like miyamoto and tezuka, off the top of my head, do consider yoshi's island to be a mainline super mario game

[@squibble08]

well if you wanna debate mainline-icity of some games then oh boy have i got the video for you

[@RichConnerGMN]

why not both? love wins

[@NintendoFuse_Greg]

Yeah I would agree with you on this. Else why is Yoshi's Island DS excluded? Mario (baby) and Yoshi are playable in the game, a kidnapping takes place (baby Luigi, Peach, DK) and Bowser is the villian there too. It's nearly a re-telling of SMW2: Yoshi's Island (not a remake/remaster as the content is completely different).

[@jacen7911]

I feel bad for Ceave because he can't sit back and enjoy a nice Ceave gaming video like we can

[@davedog0984]

You forgot to mention that 3D Land actually features 2 distinct kidnappings: Princess Peach and Luigi are both kidnapped and imprisoned in seprate locations. I don't think this would matter because it probably falls under the "one kidnapping per game" rule, but because it's two seprate people I still think it's worth noting. Actually, after writing this comment, I realized that a few other games feature multiple seprate kidnappings: the toads are captured in SMB, The Lost Levels, and 3D Land, the Yoshis are kidnapped in SMW and Sunshine, several Sprixies are kidnapped in 3D World, Tiara is kidnapped in Odyssey, and probably some other instances I forgot. So you should probabaly also include a seprate analysis, to determine how many seprate kidnappings are likely to occur in the next game.

[@penelopeallen32]

12:10 so... Luigi may not be *confirmed* as a princess in the mainline Mario games, but Princess Luigi will never forget his beloved Prince Peasley.

[@EmilyMemily-it3xp]

15:16 I don’t agree. Clearly, they like kidnappings as a plot device enough to include it twice in the same game. Shouldn’t that be enough to say they’re more likely to include kidnappings in the future?

[@ego-lay_atman-bay]

You forgot the release day of the week statistic. That's a factor that actually might get an even better release date prediction. Also, that release date prediction is actually a very reasonable date.

[@YarnDuckGet]

Of the games listed in the video, There are: 6 Friday releases 5 Sundays 4 Thursdays 2 Wednesdays 2 Saturdays 1 Monday And 1 Tuesday. The date listed in the video lands of a Tuesday, but another comment pointed out that his math was slightly off. They came up with the date September 15th, 2025, Which... lands on a Monday.

[@ego-lay_atman-bay]

@YarnDuckGet But in what eras were those releases? Recent releases most likely reflect what a new game would be. I'd try to figure it out now, but I have to go to bed now, so... if anyone else wants to do it...

[@WaluigiGoesWa]

The next mainline Mario game will be Hotel Mario 2

[@XiRevsGD]

seqr ⏹🟥❣

[@Mikkelstorgaard]

Next Mario game will be modelled after Orpheus and Eurydice, mark my words. Bowser is Hades.

[@Gulliblepikmin]

28:54 No, Ceave! Correlation doesn't imply causation! Also, I feel Super Mario 3D World wasn't investigated thoroughly enough, as there are at least three and at most 15 largely successful kidnappings seen through the game. The first is either one or six kidnappings, depending on how you look at it, which are the the six-non green Sprixie Princesses. Since they were all kidnapped at the same time, I'd say it's up to personal preference whether you'd consider that one big kidnapping or six kidnappings at once. The either second or seventh is the green Sprixie Princess seen at the start of the game. This is pretty obviously one kidnapping, as there's only one person being kidnapped. The either third, eighth, or 15th is when Bowser kidnaps all the Sprixie Princesses at once at the end of World Castle (the seventh world), and takes them to the end of World Bowser (the eighth world). I'd say this is pretty indisputably a largely successful kidnapping plot compared to Shadow Mario's initial one, even if it's only brief, but again, it's up to interpretation if this counts as one big kidnapping or seven kidnappings at once. It's made even more complicated as bowser traps them all in one big bottle, at once, rather than presumably one right after another like the separate bottles and the Green Sprixie's explanation at the beginning of the game imply, meaning that you could reasonably consider the pre-game kidnapping plot to count as six, but this kidnapping plot only as one kidnapping. There's no way you can convince me that the World Castle kidnapping counts as multiple instances, but the pre-game one counts as only one, though.

[@BryanLu0]

As he says for sunshine, each game only gets one kidnapping, because he is evaluating the chance that the next game will contain a kidnapping. To include this information, would require a different form of data entry

[@Gulliblepikmin]

@@BryanLu0 Oh right, sorry. That completely slipped my mind.

[@3nd3rryan]

as a time traveler I can confirm that this video is 100% accurate

[@darkychao]

18:45 why wasn't this brought up when you were talking about 64? because this is the same thing that happens in 64.

[@BriggsMullen]

If you're looking for an average time between games, you need to divide the total time by the number of games minus one. There were 20 waiting periods between the 21 games. 13916 ÷ 20 = 695.8, so the likely release date is actually September 15th (in the evening)

[@Frozen_Kirby]

You don't know how happy it makes me to see an upload of yours in my notifications!

[@lordphilbert3838]

I love the premise of this video! excited to see your findings lol. Glad you're making videos again!

[@sirasera_]

This proves that mario games are actually extremely unpredictable

[@Fallub]

What an incredibly creative video. And amazing editing as well. Thanks Ceave.

[@CapnCrazy110]

Something I am surprised you didnt consider is that Yoshi's appearance or non appearance tends to flip-flop between games. Since his first appearance, if a game includes Yoshi there is an 80% chance (12/15) that he will not appear in the original release of the following game, and vice versa. This becomes more apparent if you consider 2D and 3D games to be different branches, since yoshi's status only stays the same between games once in each branch (both 3D Land and 3D world have no yoshi, and NSMBU and Wonder DO have Yoshi)

[@BryanLu0]

Yoshi did appear in Galaxy 2 and Odyssey though. So it's not a hard trend.

[@CapnCrazy110]

Yes, as i mentioned, the alternating yoshi theory only holds true 80% of the time (or 86% of the time if you also adhere to the branching 2D-3D model)

[@PotofGlue]

I think it would make some sense to count remakes separately since the games getting remade are typically the most popular in the series, which is likely to impact their choices for future games.

[@ivanbluecool]

Guess next is the stats on Zelda since girl is getting way more work done than peach ever could

[@mr.whimsic6902]

Yes, I very much want to see a video like this but with the zelda games

[@SkyP9812]

True, although keep in mind the princesses are technically all different people from the same lineage, so they should be counted as such and not just as their religious role as Hylia's incarnation

[@LoraLoibu]

would cadence of hyrule count

[@peksioart6706]

Yeah that's what I thought too

[@matthewisguy7336]

4:11 The Yoshi head is from the Mario Party 9 box art!!!!!! 😂

[@hamster8706]

17:18 "Mushroom Kindgom" At this point I am sure that Ceave has finally lost his sanity thanks to the Kidnapping Counter

[@2DCheese]

LOL

[@justinmcdonald4822]

Hold on... in Mario Wonder, the majority of poplins do in fact, get imprisoned within their own homes, and a few even get trapped in a cave. Good luck counting them all!

[@conor4594]

He said he only counts games with multiple kidnapping as only one kidnapping

[@felipevasconcelos6736]

@@conor4594 yes, but he didn't count it at all.

[@TemmieToad]

19:55 you forgot toad was there, why are you doing him dirty 😭

[@ruolbu]

toad ain't a character, it's a unit. Like Goombas or Bokoblins in Zelda.

[@TemmieToad]

@ruolbu that's like saying soldiers of the U.S. army aren't people 💀

[@TemmieToad]

@ruolbu plus this blue toad specifically is the one that appears in the NSMB games, wonder, and 3-D world

[@NicTube]

Man, including the RPGs would make this the most complex statistic ever 💀 And it's already impressive, so good job on researching and turning it into a very entertaining video!

[@red5robb1]

you forgot to include Tiara getting kidnapped in the Odyssey section. gotta redo the whole video now 🤣

[@MarioFanOnYouTube]

Not to start that conversation again... But I will start this conversation again. Yoshi's Island is not a mainline Mario game.

[@rubiusstudios5709]

You made an error in counting the days between releases. There were 21 mario games, but 20 periods of waiting between games. This means that the average would be 13916 days divided by 20 waiting periods to get an average of 695.8 days. That would be precisely on September 14, 2025, at 7:12 PM (and zero seconds). I'm surprised such a scientific study made an error as simple as that!

[@bread01169]

Very happy to see your return, I hope you are doing well and came back because you have a passion for the amazing Nintendo analysis. I always love your videos and hope with the coming Switch 2 there are many more things to come. Can't wait to see more, and hope everyone reading this has a good day.

[@superpancake4872]

Haven't seen the video, but my bets are on Bowser being portrayed in a sympathetic way at some point. And that the final true boss will not be bowser.

[@hopefullyexisting1531]

immediate flashbacks to ‘how many super mario games are there now’ as soon as the first game was over lmao

[@ElecTrick11037]

But Ceave! Bowser kidnapped all 7 Sprixie Princesses in Super Mario 3D World! You need to recalculate everything!

[@DanielDugovic]

Also, Super Mario World takes place in the stars!

[@GiovanniRivas-r5f]

Wow, now this is a devoted Mario fan. Calculating almost every probability of any and every event within the series. Respect.

[@SPEEDYDIM2]

*ah yes using the power of quantum physics and mathematics* *to predict the next instalment of the silly lil Italien plumber series*

[@FlowCraftLP]

I trained a random forest (machine learning algorithm) with the game data. The following results are for a possible game in 2025, because the random forest was trained with only the year as a predictor. The random forest predicted a 100 % chance for Bowser to be the villain, a 12/14 % chance for peach/anybody to get kidnapped. The chance for the game to take place in Mushroom Kingdom was only 4 % and Yoshi was 65 % likely to appear in the game. After that, I trained the random forest with 2 columns each. The first one was release year and Yoshi appearance. This means for a game released in 2025 which featured Yoshi, there is a 39 % chance for peach/somebody to be kidnapped. Bowser still is 100 % likely to be the villain and the location will be the Mushroom Kingdom with a 22 % likelyhood. Now the same procedure but with *no* kidnapped Peach in 2025. In that case, Bowser was only 88 % likely to be the bad guy, and it was 99 % likely to *not* take place in the Mushroom Kingdom. Yoshi was 49 % likely to appear in this fictional game. Interestingly, a general kidnapping was predicted with a 24 % chance. Well, let's talk about limitations. Random forests are bad at prediction of the future or anything outside their training data. So it was probably not the smartest choice to choose a random forest, but oh well 🤷I just chose it on a whim because it's extremely easy to run 😅 @Ceave and anybody, who also is interested: If you are interested in the code, slide into my DMs, and I'll upload it to GitHub or something like that.

[@Da_Peach]

sliding in smoothly; gimme the repo

[@FlowCraftLP]

@@Da_Peach I'll quickly try to figure out how GitHub works and let you know when it's done.

[@FlowCraftLP]

@@Da_Peach It should be available now as a repo. You should be able to find it under drosselbard/mario_rf.

[@Sam_on_YouTube]

Mario Bros 2 shouldn't count. It was not what Nintendo planned to put out there. It was a last minute change when they decided Lost Levels (released as Mario Bros 2 in Japan) was too hard for the US audience. They did a lot of work in reskinning Doki Doki Panic, it isn't just a quick port. And they later integrated story elements into other games. But it wasn't what they planned for so it doesn't really help much in figuring out what Nintendo is planning now.

[@jotrutch]

Mario is a spontaneous guy, still counts

[@peksioart6706]

No I think it does count for the reason you said, which is the fact that they incorporated elements from it to later games (even if the game wasn't planned to be a Mario game at first, it doesn't mean it can't influence what direction the next game will take)

[@RedStoneMatt]

A new Ceave video, yay! Very interesting data, will be funny to see how accurate it might be when the next mainline game comes!

[@JoCr2]

You know it'll be a good Ceave video when he excitedly gets down to analyzing the nuts and bolts of a topic in comedically fine detail!

[@probablynotdanny4384]

Not one single video you've made that isn't a total banger. Great stuff!

[@thedarkestcomedian]

Came here for Ceave. Left with a Statistics lesson. 🤓

[@Nightcake]

27:30, you seem to have highlighted the wrong game. Super mario land *did* have a kidnapping, it was super mario bros 2 (US) that didnt have a kidnapping.

[@annam6742]

This video topic could have been really dry, and yet somehow you made it extremely entertaining! 👍👍

[@bkucenski]

The Switch 2 reveal had all the energy of parents on Christmas day when they know their kids snuck around and already saw everything.

[@stellanovaluna]

Ceave is nerdy in the best way possible

[@narayanbandodker5482]

I'll make a prediction that 100% chance the next Mario game will involve Mario in it.

[@trueberryless]

Ceave, we know you love Mario games and know EVERYTHING about them all, you don't have to prove it over 40min. Nonetheless, really enjoyable and thought-provoking...

[@pickitypickpick]

So glad to have you back! In the time you've been gone I lost my husband and we used to watch your videos together. So your videos are a comfort fuzzy blanket to me.

[@Marinealver]

Time to type. First game is Mario Bros where Mario & Luigi fighting the crabs, turtles and flies. Like the bonus level in Mario Bros 3. 9:00 need to recount the princesses. It was Princess Toadstool, Peach didn't came until Nintendo 64. Looks like you are going to have to redo the whole video.

[@supermariopenguin20651]

I love how, instead of adding a 2D/3D counter, we added whatever that crazy kidnapping/false imprisonment counter 🤣 Beautiful video

[@skynet3]

I wouldn’t classify Yoshi’s Island as a Mario game, as you don’t play as Mario

[@luhgarlicbread]

nah i was just thinking about u bro the other day i was on your page. awesome to see u back. 👏👏

[@AlexiSonic]

The conclusion reminding us that this is just a silly little video so I won't complain about the very sketchy process and enjoy the video for what it is. A collection of Mario trivia. I think I would have liked to hear that in th ebeginning, because I was very concerned all throughout about what you were gonna do with this data. Glad to see that the "probabilities" changed into "trends" during the analysis. I think a very important factor would have been the game success - surely, succesful trends ar emore likely to be reused. But in terms of "here is the main plot of each mainline Mario game", that video is pretty good!

[@DjVortex-w]

I imagine a statistician Toad giving a lecture to Peach using a whiteboard and video projector about all these statistics and graphs and, thus, the best plans to have a vacation with the least chances of getting kidnapped.

[@PatLund]

I'm so glad Ceave is back to making videos on this channel.

[@chrishart4034]

When the world needs him most, Ceave returns to give us all Mario hype. Hooray!

[@kingdyste5289]

This was a great video, and a lot of fun to see the probabilities. That said, I do feel like one potential trend that was neglected was to see if Luigi would be a playable option as a character, since that's varied quite a bit on the era, with him not being playable at all in the 1995-2004 era (save the DS version of 64 of course), while he was playable in every game in the 2005-2014 era.

[@StarBeam500]

I'm so glad to see Ceave still going. This is good content. It's a very inefficient and drawn-out way of calculating something like this, but dang, if it isn't fun.

[@karol30660]

It's wild that Mario 64 DS - a version with seemingly better models and playable Yoshi wasn't the one used for all remasters and re-releases that came after

[@peksioart6706]

Same reason why they don't use the all star versions of the first games

[@AbruptAvalanche]

Mario controlled a lot better in 64 than 64 DS, and many prefer the original for that reason alone. The real reason though, probably has more to do with the dual screen nature of the remake. The map, some UI elements, camera controls and the mini games all used the bottom screen. I’m sure most of that could be adjusted to work on a single screen without touch control, but that would take work, and Nintendo doesn’t like to put in work if they don’t have to. Easier to just do a straight emulation of the original, maybe with some touched up textures if we’re lucky.

[@Vomarsk]

Imagine someone at nintendo watching this and going "you know what? it would be kinda funny if we were to get the next Mario game out by August 12"

[@Skelatox]

"If we count games that are only retroactively about Mario, it will harm our data." "So, in Super Mario Bros 2..."

[@guitarrrsss]

commenting to help the algorithm, CEAVE IS BACKK!

[@chamtheman551]

Amazing video as always Ceave! Just a few questions for our scientific cause: - Should we include New Super Luigi U as it revolves around the exact same plot as NSMBU with different elements and without Mario? Or is it just a parallel story in a parallel universe to NSMBU? - How would we put the 3 Mario Maker game's story modes and modes in general that have Peach in them? Could we just consider that they involve the Mario Multiverse as almost all levels those games are user generated content? - What about the Mario vs Donkey Kong series? Even though it's a spinoff, there are still Mario elements taking place in the Mario Universe, as well as some kidnappings. If anyone else has definitive answers to these please let me know 🙏

[@FireflyMykah]

Very fun video! Two things: There are 8 princesses in super mario 3d world. Should you count each one? Second, I believe what you calculated is the average distribution between game waits but not the average wait between games. You would add up the waits inbetween each pair of games and then divide by the gaps. I’m not sure how different that would be, but just a thought!