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"I'm Surprised The Market's Not Down More" | Aswath Damodaran

  Рет қаралды 54,251

Blockworks Macro

Blockworks Macro

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 164
@BlockworksHQ
@BlockworksHQ 2 жыл бұрын
Understand the markets in 5 minutes with our daily crypto and macro newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter-2/
@FireEverLiving
@FireEverLiving 2 жыл бұрын
Aswath is the best, it's awesome that you got him! I love his approach of combining stories with hard numbers, and he puts all of his spreadsheets, data, and courses online for free.
@Q_QQ_Q
@Q_QQ_Q 2 жыл бұрын
yes
@ferelgreat
@ferelgreat 2 жыл бұрын
You are brave for having Prof. Aswath, Jack. Thanks for the interview.
@ttille1
@ttille1 2 жыл бұрын
Is he a famous murderer or something? I don't think they were in the same room, the interview was on Zoom so Jack was safe the whole time anyway
@西西弗斯-y4k
@西西弗斯-y4k 2 жыл бұрын
@@ttille1 🤣🤣
@wasdwasdedsf
@wasdwasdedsf 2 жыл бұрын
brave how?
@ttille1
@ttille1 2 жыл бұрын
@@wasdwasdedsf That's what I'm saying. It's not like Jack was ever in any REAL danger... 🙄
@gravity_dog
@gravity_dog 2 жыл бұрын
Assuming brave because this guy will tear your world view apart with any false statement. I think Aswath is the type of guy that when he talks you have to stop and just listen.
@George-jm4rn
@George-jm4rn 2 жыл бұрын
One of your best, Jack. HIGHLY educational. Rational. Nonideological.
@justneal99
@justneal99 2 жыл бұрын
What a privilege to listen to the mighty professor. Thank you so much.
@gamanshoo
@gamanshoo 2 жыл бұрын
JACK! GREAT GUEST!! Bring him back REGULARLY if possible. Stoic. Cool-headed. Crisp.
@Nocturne83
@Nocturne83 2 жыл бұрын
This dude was a fountain of knowledge. Great interview!
@Olovoll
@Olovoll 2 жыл бұрын
What a great lecture. I was able to understand it, explained so simply
@Armando-jh8lc
@Armando-jh8lc 2 жыл бұрын
It looks like Jack was schooled and humbled a bit . I think we all need to converse with someone as intelligent as Prof D and self reflect our biases and false assumptions. Thank you for this interview
@majidhosseini
@majidhosseini 2 жыл бұрын
Quite the opposite. Jack was very humble from the beginning and showed much deference to the professor (as is his usual manner towards his guests). It was the professor that consistently treated Jack with rudeness and impatience. I was much disappointed at his attitude
@thenewwayhome
@thenewwayhome 2 жыл бұрын
Wow. Glad to have found this channel, especially this episode! Loaded with so much info and wisdom! Great talk and content! Well done!
@mouradbsiri3822
@mouradbsiri3822 2 жыл бұрын
Very impressed by the Aswarth's talent, objectivity and clarity, during this challenging interview. As my Professor in 1985, class of Theory of finance AT Haas MBA, I can assure, that he is one of the top worlwide leading expert in this very complex field of Corp Finance
@imzan3650
@imzan3650 2 жыл бұрын
Aswath, the GOAT of valuation and finance
@professorwang
@professorwang 2 жыл бұрын
One of your best guests ever.
@mungoblakey1494
@mungoblakey1494 2 жыл бұрын
Really amazing interview Jack! I never comment on KZbin, but I just want to say thank you all the amazing free content you have delivered so far this year. I can't say my equity portfolio is correlated with the excellence of your interviews, but at least I feel more confident after listening :)
@ashhishvaidya9253
@ashhishvaidya9253 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for getting Aswath for this conversation. From complexity to simplicity. Simply excellent
@hungryscientist1
@hungryscientist1 2 жыл бұрын
I would have liked to hear the professors view on the central bank and governments role in creating inflation. He states that QE had a marginal effect, equivalent to 0.3% subsidy for equity investments but also states that high inflation is the most destructive thing in the economy. Does he see any connection between central banks QE causing inflation? That also plays into the BTC thesis that the state meddling with money supply causes more problems, he never really addressed that.
@keshavkhanna6028
@keshavkhanna6028 2 жыл бұрын
This is one of the best channels on youtube. Keep going guys. Upwards and onwards!!
@rchen404
@rchen404 2 жыл бұрын
With all respect to the professor if interest rates are always greater than inflation expectations, how do we explain negative yielding debt? A few years ago, there were junk bonds in Europe that had negative yields. So inflation was expected to be negative (ie deflation so negative that the yield even covered the credit risk of junk)? The answer is probably the purposeful evil of central banks
@1resinmonkey
@1resinmonkey 2 жыл бұрын
Amazing guest, calm clear and highly educational- Thanks
@johnmerlino7011
@johnmerlino7011 2 жыл бұрын
Aswath was a great interview! Thank you.
@haze1123
@haze1123 2 жыл бұрын
We are still solidly in the denial / fear stages. The panic stage is approaching.
@florentlabeille694
@florentlabeille694 2 жыл бұрын
Bravo for this great interview. Thank you so much for sharing. Thank you for all the work
@joesmith9139
@joesmith9139 2 жыл бұрын
I began to follow your channel a few weeks ago. I love it. Keep it up, guys! 👏
@majidhosseini
@majidhosseini 2 жыл бұрын
Professor Damodaran is a good market observer and analyst, but he was curt towards Jack continuously. Jack, like a very bright student, asked excellent questions, but the professor kept showing impatience towards him.
@GhostApache
@GhostApache 2 жыл бұрын
Agreed. This guy is more than a little pompous.
@wasdwasdedsf
@wasdwasdedsf 2 жыл бұрын
i dont believe that was his intent, hes always been warm in his classes
@SamEbby
@SamEbby 2 жыл бұрын
Agreed. Dude was an ass
@anothertexan1036
@anothertexan1036 2 жыл бұрын
A bit more than halfway through this. I have to say, I don't care for the interviewer very much. Quite a few poor questions, but Aswath is a master at turning it into a teaching moment. I'm not familiar with this channel, but I do love Aswath's interviews and classes. For people like me, this video is still worth watching for the way he responds to these "mainstream" questions.
@ykhov
@ykhov 2 жыл бұрын
1:05:15 His bitcoin analysis is incorrect here. There is a direct collaration between Money Printing and Bitcoin price. The money printing stopped in Q4 2021 and that was the top for Bitcoin. Other than that, Aswath's narrative is sound.
@77magicbus
@77magicbus 2 жыл бұрын
Excellent interview. Thanks
@sebastiqn121
@sebastiqn121 2 жыл бұрын
Great talk guys! Very informative!
@johncarvill4713
@johncarvill4713 2 жыл бұрын
I've been unsure about the market due to volatility, at the same time I still feel it's the right time to make profit cos of the price decrease, heard someone speaking of making over $500k since the lockdown and I'm driven to ask what techniques/skillset is needed to achieve this
@flokitopper8096
@flokitopper8096 2 жыл бұрын
it's all about finding the right moment to take advantage of and generate colossal profit, which is why you need to do your research
@ryandaley655
@ryandaley655 2 жыл бұрын
@@flokitopper8096 To succeed in the financial markets, you must review and put into consideration, the dynamics of your trading asset prior to investing. Analysis Based on Research is Vital which is why; I recommend trading with a Professional if you don't know the basics
@chinnywhite772
@chinnywhite772 2 жыл бұрын
@@ryandaley655 This sounds like a great idea, but never knew how to go about it, Have you traded with a pro? what is the experience like
@ryandaley655
@ryandaley655 2 жыл бұрын
@@chinnywhite772 Having a coach in this red market is key, My advisor is "Wendy Helene Bennett" You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.
@chinnywhite772
@chinnywhite772 2 жыл бұрын
@@ryandaley655 Thank you for this amazing tip. Verified her, wrote her and scheduled a Phone call. She seems Proficient.
@gotthefeelin
@gotthefeelin 2 жыл бұрын
“Inflation in the nation don’t bother me, ‘caus I’m a scholar with a dollar that’s plain to see” - Aswath Damodaran
@HaruSakamoto
@HaruSakamoto 2 жыл бұрын
That last question is just a pure 💎
@melvinthomas6383
@melvinthomas6383 2 жыл бұрын
Low + low gives you low. No truer words have ever been spoken.
@marxenbrothers
@marxenbrothers 2 жыл бұрын
Brilliant conversation. Thanks to both of you!
@ig7567
@ig7567 2 жыл бұрын
Mr. Damodaran: last time I used bitcoin was a week ago to pay for a VPN service via the lightning network. It was a flawless and immediate experience. It's not that the technology and its infrastrucure is bad but that the adoption it's just beginning. No service goes from zero to 3 billion + people overnight.
@javism28
@javism28 2 жыл бұрын
Congratulations Jack. Excellent interview. Thanks indeed
@AndiVaradi
@AndiVaradi Жыл бұрын
Good info and correction for the overall misunderstood FED policies
@martinstrid4667
@martinstrid4667 2 жыл бұрын
How ever much I appreciated his schooling and calculated engineer look at things. When it came to bitcoin it just felt like he wasn't up to speed. Bitcoin is far more usuable and used than he claims. Plus if it claims to be a currency and keeps going up against all the other currencies then he says it's a better currency. And keep a longer horizon than last one year and this claim makes bitcoin do to the dollar to what the dollar has done to the bolivar.
@25Soupy
@25Soupy 2 жыл бұрын
You're not wrong but not really correct either. At this point in the game bitcoin is still a speculation and a collectible. Like gold, it's not an inflation hedge it's a hedge against bad governments.
@TheLKStar
@TheLKStar 2 жыл бұрын
I was going to say the same thing. Whatever doesn't conform to his fixed views is simply ignored. His take on bitcoin is very superficial and dare I say outright ignorant. It is a risk asset until it's not. We can't be sure if it'll stick, if it'll integrate into the global economy as "digital gold" and possibly a reserve or transference layer for international trading. If it does and you get in early (as a nascent technology) you'll win big. If it doesn't you may win or lose on the speculation depending on your risk management.
@wasdwasdedsf
@wasdwasdedsf 2 жыл бұрын
@@25Soupy 1.every government is burning money and energyt fromthe system. 2.whats a speculation? it has all the qualities a currency needs if it wants to be, and all of the qualities are superior than the fiat equivelants
@MartinJG100
@MartinJG100 2 жыл бұрын
This man is spot on. So rare to hear down to earth proper old school fundamental investing common sense. There is just too much noise and nonsense talked by so called pundits concerning the markets. 1:11:00. Indeed.
@freddiefreeloader1894
@freddiefreeloader1894 2 жыл бұрын
Thank You Jack for delivering this.
@lento2307
@lento2307 2 жыл бұрын
Great episode Jack.
@martinlutherkingjr.5582
@martinlutherkingjr.5582 2 жыл бұрын
He should try doing a multisig transaction before evaluating Bitcoin’s value.
@jpbrindamour5467
@jpbrindamour5467 2 жыл бұрын
Nice start: ivory tower blather.
@nslcap
@nslcap 2 жыл бұрын
Props 2 The Professor.... This guy gets it...
@jackgoldman1
@jackgoldman1 2 жыл бұрын
Excellent interview, excellent guest, leaves me hungering for more. I will check him out. Very wise. Wisdom is the long term capital of the Universe.
@paul5622
@paul5622 2 жыл бұрын
Great interview. Thanks
@robstewart8531
@robstewart8531 2 жыл бұрын
Masterclass
@Random.Adventures.
@Random.Adventures. 2 жыл бұрын
Great interview. I like the thinking "Got to shoot your self in the knee if you think you are walking to fast" great quote so much knowledge
@PRAVEENMARUTHURMANA
@PRAVEENMARUTHURMANA 2 жыл бұрын
Absolute gem,,!
@mkayultra3738
@mkayultra3738 2 жыл бұрын
Around 8:50 did they effectively say inflation has positive vanna?
@marklydon435
@marklydon435 2 жыл бұрын
Bonds down, gold flat, equities down, crypto down, I think that most portfolios are down. Even cash is down against inflation. Good luck all.
@Tential1
@Tential1 2 жыл бұрын
30:45 pretty much, I've seen it. Companies are starting to outsource. It's over. I've been looking for a new job in hopes of at least getting some more time out of the job market before moving to a cheaper country. This is not going to be a good economy moving forward. Europe has to give up on the sanctions, that's the only thing that saves the economy somewhat. Europe can't just turn off 5-15% of production and raise rates, while we do it too... This isn't good.
@kikolatulipe
@kikolatulipe 2 жыл бұрын
Awesome guest !
@ananthkumar12
@ananthkumar12 2 жыл бұрын
Incredible. Yea def not easy having this kind of chat. Well done @jack
@Subramanyam_J
@Subramanyam_J 2 жыл бұрын
Amazing guy .. his predictions on zomato was spot on
@alexvanbreemen9083
@alexvanbreemen9083 2 жыл бұрын
I think Jack is great!
@MrReconjon
@MrReconjon 2 жыл бұрын
I love the fallacy of the terrible currency argument, totally ignores Greshams law.
@ScarletKnightmare
@ScarletKnightmare 2 жыл бұрын
Yuppp
@mere_cat
@mere_cat 2 жыл бұрын
Fantastic interview! Great questions Jack.
@thomaskauser8978
@thomaskauser8978 2 жыл бұрын
The aroon is printing 100% selling and 0% buying and the s&p down a %.5? Speaking of a half percent after the fed being super cereal about rates the BOE raises %.50 ? Yuan breaks the dollar peg and buys yen , dollar has inside day? Fed was only american because of the building location ?
@zacpeterson4841
@zacpeterson4841 2 жыл бұрын
I really liked his perspective but using the Swiss Franc as a counterexample for Bitcoin, he provided all the reasons why Bitcoin is so good as a currency. Just because it hasn't been used as much historically can be an argument, but then stating a counter example as something you can use or exchange anywhere in the world, that is the entire purpose of Bitcoin.
@Stavros_Steve_Deriziotis
@Stavros_Steve_Deriziotis 2 жыл бұрын
You found a real life wizard!
@przemekwikarski4069
@przemekwikarski4069 2 жыл бұрын
Amazing interview. Well done.
@Tential1
@Tential1 2 жыл бұрын
1:00:45 - a, finally, the most eloquently put reasoning on bitcoin. People just don't seem to get it. There is zero point in buying bitcoin. If you buy bitcoin, and I buy a house, and then bitcoin is the global currency, it doesn't make your currency anymore valuable. My houses value now just is devalued in bitcoin. You're currency trading. Why? Why not just directly own a real asset... Forex trading is trash.
@wasdwasdedsf
@wasdwasdedsf 2 жыл бұрын
"You're currency trading. Why? Why not just directly own a real asset..." because the person in question believes it to have superior qualities than all oter clown fiats and bets on it gaining market share over them??
@togoni
@togoni 2 жыл бұрын
This one was really good
@erbterb
@erbterb 2 жыл бұрын
The large commercial banks and central banks are slamming the brakes on the car, while the passengers not wearing a seatbelt have not yet hit the windscreen. We are waiving to our friends "employment is good, autoloans are not under water, congress is not insider trading" as we fly in the cabin. Are we flying for six or eighteen months, starting from when?
@albertosantangelo6872
@albertosantangelo6872 2 жыл бұрын
I fear N=500 observations are not enough to use the Law of Large Numbers if the variable you are estimating (earnings) is fat-tailed, see Taleb. Same problem with the ERP (equity risk premium): you can't draw statistically significant conclusions from empirical numbers because stock returns are (very) fat-tailed
@BTrill2100
@BTrill2100 2 жыл бұрын
Tick-Tock next Block ⚡️♻️
@JimJamJuicy
@JimJamJuicy 2 жыл бұрын
Smart guy he’s thought this through big time
@kpot22
@kpot22 2 жыл бұрын
Loved this interview.
@leinilyu
@leinilyu 2 жыл бұрын
price is everything. called out on Gold price, then proceeds to name use cases like jewelry and electronics.
@konstantinkolchakov4365
@konstantinkolchakov4365 2 жыл бұрын
Mike Green and Aswath Damodaran please!
@Tential1
@Tential1 2 жыл бұрын
I would say, forecasting oil prices on companies has more downside protection, so you're better off finding an undervalued company that can make money even in a 60 dollar oil a barrel market than directly betting on futures. I'd rather be in Occidental where I understand what the cash flows look like, than bet directly on an oil commodity price, which has no cash flow. If I think oil will stay above 65, I'd rather buy a company with cash flows than sell puts at 65. It's all risk and reward. I think he was just quickly answering, but when you think about it, the answer breaks, but I mean it's on the spot thinking and I have the benefit of pausing. I think we can all agree, directly trading any commodity is more difficult, with more downside risk, than a company involved in that commodity. Especially when they may sell multiple commodities.
@ptykozoon1658
@ptykozoon1658 2 жыл бұрын
His final comments on overconfidence sum up his Bitcoin opinion best.
@fantaaastico8150
@fantaaastico8150 2 жыл бұрын
Loved this episode. Like his point of view
@Tential1
@Tential1 2 жыл бұрын
You get some very good guests. Wow.
@infamousnachi
@infamousnachi 2 жыл бұрын
Aswath is very intelligent. He knows finance and how the system works very well. Therefore he's able to explain causes and consequences within the system. However, he's underestimating how corrupt the system has been (cantillion effect) and underplays how central banks have managed to manipulate the cost of capital for the past 15 years. The system is fundamentally broken and is perpetuating income inequality. Ultimately, such a system is eating itself and is not sustainable.
@mattanderson6672
@mattanderson6672 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you
@kk22001
@kk22001 Жыл бұрын
I'm surprise that as a value investor why would you want to be bothered by the overall market direction?
@Poochie1
@Poochie1 2 жыл бұрын
Really love this guy!
@AlexSwan
@AlexSwan 2 жыл бұрын
Excellent
@H2ydrogen
@H2ydrogen 2 жыл бұрын
Very insightful
@cashflowyield
@cashflowyield 2 жыл бұрын
Great discussions
@Tential1
@Tential1 2 жыл бұрын
1:03:04 you're better off owning a ferrari and never driving it. Bitcoin loses in every use case for holding it against better assets in that asset class.
@gillesnick1052
@gillesnick1052 2 жыл бұрын
Aswath Damodaran is the real GOAT in macro. (greatest of all time) in case you boomers are wandering what it means.
@Q_QQ_Q
@Q_QQ_Q 2 жыл бұрын
lol
@AssholeFace
@AssholeFace 2 жыл бұрын
In finance/stock valuations, not macro economists. I don't know any good macro economists. Maybe John Cochrane is the least worst.
@hmmob3956
@hmmob3956 2 жыл бұрын
' ... in case you boomers are wandering .. '. At least boomers know the difference between wondering and wandering.
@bn7228
@bn7228 2 жыл бұрын
The professor is off in his analysis of the impact of Q/E. I’m not certain but if we assume the avg maturity is 5 years, then the Fed is buying 2 trillion of bonds per year. The affect on prices is much more than 30bp over 9trillion in bonds. Those bonds are rolling over frequently and being reinvested. If they were only such a minute amount the Fed would dump them all immediately. Respectfully the professor needs to revisit this analysis. My work says it’s much more impactful…..WAY ….. more impactful.
@Pnumi
@Pnumi 2 жыл бұрын
Clearly Professor Damodaran doesn't know how capabile the Big Boys are at keeping the market from falling preciptially until they can maximise their selling at the highest possible prices. In a crash like the one that's coming, every little bit counts.
@parakhshah6000
@parakhshah6000 2 жыл бұрын
20:46
@Josh-xe5vi
@Josh-xe5vi 2 жыл бұрын
I'd say he's over confident on his views on bitcoin when it's only had a short lifespan.
@ptykozoon1658
@ptykozoon1658 2 жыл бұрын
When even this guy has trouble understanding Bitcoin, and can be so patronizing about it, is really sad. It’s an emerging SoV, and the price reflects that perfectly
@dr3638
@dr3638 2 жыл бұрын
Good interview but the miniscule 30bps subsidy discussion as a result of QE is wrong. When all of the CBs were in sync it had a much bigger impact and kept rates down for longer than needed to be. Inflation has always been there and conveniently mostly ignored in the calculations such as the asset you're likely to spend the most amount of money on, eg. property. Speaking from an Australian perspective at least. The blame can certainly be pinned on them in keeping the party drunk whilst enriching a whole generation and forget the rest. Agree that the party should end but let's be real, they'll try to keep doing what they do..
@shaerodenaizen4375
@shaerodenaizen4375 2 жыл бұрын
he had me until he said the value of a currency is an effect of how often it's used in a transaction. by this logic, all i would have to do to make bitcoin valuable is program a bunch of bots to send all bitcoin users a few sats in every block. by this logic, all the shitcoins that have built-in features that do exactly this should be far more valuable than bitcoin. furthermore, the transaction frequency is affected by inflation. ie: the more inflation a dominant currency has, the more transactions will take place as a product of people pursuing hedges against it, and offloading it in to consumables that they know will be more expensive later. this logic would dictate that the dominant currency that inflates the most will have the biggest tailwinds in achieving currency status.
@aaroncirulnick7886
@aaroncirulnick7886 2 жыл бұрын
Humbled.
@martinlutherkingjr.5582
@martinlutherkingjr.5582 2 жыл бұрын
Worry is useful to an extent so you don’t do stupid things
@issenvan1050
@issenvan1050 2 жыл бұрын
Where are all those $s go to with this inflation, professor?!
@mikeflair6800
@mikeflair6800 2 жыл бұрын
IMO the reason the USA Stock Market is not down more because it remains TINA, just like the USA $. For all our issues and problems, inflation combined with recession, it is still better than anywhere else. The USA will recover 1st, long term investors know this. Professor types think too much. Just invest in USA Stocks for the long term, it is the only real game in town.
@memos106
@memos106 2 жыл бұрын
The only reason I invest in us market is because of the money printer. Growth is driven by debt but who cares as a investor
@Rainy_Day12234
@Rainy_Day12234 2 жыл бұрын
Me too.
@kenlaidoner9314
@kenlaidoner9314 2 жыл бұрын
Bitcoin is a commodity. It has energy cost to produce it. Asics buy the cheapest energy on the market and turn it into bitcoin. The price of bitcoin as to most of commodities trend towards the cost of production. It can be used as currency ,but it is volatile and is going through an adoption phase which takes time. For it to be a currency it gas to griw, and for growth it needs volatility. Bitcoin so much more and we are yet to discover how this ledger of truth will morph itself.
@SP-cx2qi
@SP-cx2qi 2 жыл бұрын
It's too early in bitcoin's life for him come to conclusions on bitcoin, but otherwise some great information to take in.
@newageeducation5908
@newageeducation5908 2 жыл бұрын
never call this useless to interview again, no one said since november 2021 fed taper announcement that stocks were goin down as interest rates will be going up, everyone said risk-ons will go down, and risk-offs will go up, as early 2022 was touted as reopening of the economy
@hanzz9083
@hanzz9083 2 жыл бұрын
"why its not going down more!???" "what prices gone up?? well, i dont care!! i had enough of 2 years of covid, i want to buy!! BUY BUY BUY!!"
@matthewhammond859
@matthewhammond859 2 жыл бұрын
Ever since the gfc the dollar has been marching upwards, the economy continues to slow, every three to four years the economy crashes due to global dollar shortages, lending from inside the US and from the US to outside the US has been flat since the gfc so how can people keep saying inflation. We locked down the world economy and it destroyed the worlds transport system for goods and crushed small businesses. Then started a "sanction" and proxy war with one of the worlds largest commodity producers. The fact that none of this seems to be used to consider high prices and people keep saying inflation ( which means expansion of money supply) show how clueless everyone is. Especially these "experts". Increase in goods prices is not inflation. And increasing interest rates will not increase the amount of good available but probably harm it. But then you say it's to destroy deman side. Which is code for destroying peoples lives. This is clearly not inflation but supply availability shrinkage. M2 is not reliable since the means by which they measure it is constantly altered ( sane with inflation) so we need to look at total global money lending, which like I said has been flat. This show can be really disappointing as 90% of the time you just have brainless guests repeating thr status quo opinion with no evidence. Just an echo chamber.
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