I predicted the exact time of my daughter's birth using science and data - from Just For Graphs

[@joyce_rx]

"Why was i born, daddy?" "science experiment"

[@dnzssrl]

at least not accidentally

[@TheMrvidfreak]

@Sdtok underrated

[@JamesTheFoxeArt]

Guinea pig:Why was I born, daddy? Scientist:Science experiment

[@Arikian]

To suffer

[@ChaosGodII]

for the data points

[@neiloppa2620]

This guy's wife intentionally had the baby at that exact time to let him feel like he was right : )

[@VamsiKrishnavamsshy]

woah, she is so nice

[@lkkjhtemmexv1838]

probably she took the injection to abort, i mean, to give to birth. another abort in the world - likes the father....

[@whyarewehere3893]

Could you rewrite that?

[@marving.8868]

At 50 she was like : you better come out now make daddy proud of his math shinanigans!!!!

[@isabelcleveland3081]

Ummmmwo that’s not how that works

[@munjee2]

I'm not getting upstaged by a square , *and that thing he drew*

[@RoflZack]

Munjee Syedd I knew it was going to be good at that point

[@myrrdyn]

Especially a Parker square...

[@deluxeassortment]

I'm really curious what that segment was about... And what WAS that thing he drew

[@midnight142]

Brett he drew a Parker's square, which is almost a square but not quite. Check Numberphile channel for Parker's Square.

[@alazrabed]

Was that already a thing three years ago though?

[@AidanXavier1]

The little throwaway lines are hilarious "I'm helping" "I'll bring my wife" "And the money"

[@aim__freakz8499]

nah these were boring

[@osotanuki3359]

"Error bars, an unusual name for a first child" *looks at X Æ A-XII*

[@farhanr2532]

**looks at ABCDE** (pronounced like ab city apparently)

[@-.._.-_...-_.._-..__..._.-.-.-]

You're really funny and an excellent story teller.

[@lkkjhtemmexv1838]

i dont like clowns.....sorry aboput that,

[@RubixB0y]

@@lkkjhtemmexv1838 Who said anything about clowns?

[@armandguillen6149]

Funny how??

[@stopyp2193]

Nice one

[@madhusai220]

@@lkkjhtemmexv1838 probably sucks hating yourself then?

[@matthewcecil8552]

Oh Steve. Everyone knows mathematicians don't have sex -- they just multiply! *shakes tip jar with a look of skepticism*

[@desia.brimou]

Matthew Cecil *puts some change in the tip jar*

[@bran9380]

*like jar

[@DanielHJeffery]

Multiplication via division

[@GeodesicBruh]

Matthew Cecil MITOSIS

[@comradepeter87]

@@DanielHJeffery Lol

[@dedsi8848]

I've noticed he names his children after constellations

[@bullerfugl]

@Matrix29bear OK matrixbear

[@egonics2068]

@Matrix29bear who hurt you

[@SanketDube]

@Matrix29bear I would rather name a teasable name and coach on mindset to deal with insults.

[@ymmylicious4195]

@@egonics2068 😂👏

[@PfEMP]

Aster isn't a constellation

[@DenisRyan]

My wife and I watched this while she fed our new, five day old baby boy. We were both rocking with laughter, about which Connor was very confused as he attempted to drink his lunch.

[@Mooskislide]

Denis Ryan I’d love to give the sentence ‘drink his lunch’ to people without adding context

[@radnakse_mada]

He must be 2 years old now :)

[@RoflZack]

The upstaged by a square joke was fantastic

[@arpithamariam2636]

Zachary Taylor I didn't get that joke :/

[@zorienx]

@@arpithamariam2636 It's been 2 years... Is no one going to explain it?

[@arpithamariam2636]

@@zorienx Lol. Guess we will never know

[@ebrbrbrbrbr]

@@arpithamariam2636 First he says "I'm not going to be upstaged by a square," implying that he is worried that the square that Matt drew is getting more attention than he is. Then he says "and that thing that he drew," which implies that Matt himself is the square and he doesn't want to be upstaged by Matt (and the square that Matt drew). In this case "square" meaning something like "dorky conformist loser" in American slang

[@rebeccamoore7995]

Were you within the error bars for Aster as well?

[@JimCullen]

Asking the important questions!

[@Ark-ju2gt]

(a comment just to get notification if this is answered)

[@wickedest-witch]

Exactly what I was thinking...I need answers! (Congrats on the baby though!)

[@DukeBG]

important question indeed

[@lewismassie]

I was wondering that as well

[@itsjustlukeRevive]

Can you predict the time I win the lottery?

[@CanyonF]

yes! never

[@AydmanCuber]

In 43 months and 23 days at 5:47pm

[@mj2068]

even i can do it, it's Feb 29, 219,895,116

[@Versuffe]

320 December 2020

[@sodiboo]

Oh yeah it's after the heat death of the universe, you're gonna get hit by lightning approximately 14 times before winning it

[@mbcx9ts2]

Aster Mould sounds like a problem you'd get on your plants

[@gameswoodmore5950]

That's mean.... I laughed anyway... Now I feel bad :(

[@josgeerink9434]

LOLOLOLO

[@josgeerink9434]

😂😂😂

[@geraldmerkowitz4360]

For a moment I read "in your pants" I thought, dude! you don't tell someone his newborn child sounds like an STD!

[@TritaniumYT]

Tom Stephenson yeah, semen

[@91722854]

Fathers now have an important task to do while their wives are pregnant

[@ObjectsInMotion]

Aster Mould? Only shooting stars break the mold.

[@bokchoiman]

God damn that' s quality

[@Blox117]

somebody once told me the world is gonna roll me

[@danieldosso2455]

I ain't the sharpest tool in the shed

[@bl_nkspac_9650]

It was looking kinda dumb

[@MerleTrains]

with her finger and her thumb

[@Skinnymarks]

So now there needs to be an app that automates the graph and prediction.

[@drvanon]

Really, what is it called?

[@kathrynholt6894]

drvanon I think you misread this he said there needs to be one not that there is one already

[@leocurious9919]

Sounds good but it doesnt work like that. It was just pure luck that it actually worked the first time. Thats why he didnt put up the real time for the second baby, it just wasnt right. I mean think about how easy it would be to predict birth if that was true - it would make a lot of things much easier.

[@jackomnms]

@@leocurious9919 bruh can u atleast provide evidence? or r u just gonna deny and say its luck?

[@leocurious9919]

@@jackomnms What do you mean, evidence? If it was THIS EASY to predict the time a baby is born and also THIS precise, you wouldnt have women in labor for >24h and shit hitting the fan. What do you think why the midwives told them its too soon? Because they dont do it 500 times a year and the whole medical system doesnt know even the most simple correlation? No. Its simply not possible to really predict when a baby is born. Some take less than 2 hours in total, others struggle >24h. And its not one cause, there are lots of things that can delay birth. He (his wife) can be very happy that it was a very quick birth. Most births are not like that. Even after the first stage (active phase, full cervical dilation) a lot of things can delay the birth. So even at that point you cant tell when the baby will be born. This is WAY past the point of having regular uterine contractions.

[@Luckeux]

Congrats on your second kid! May your nerdness helps them both in their future endeavors!

[@Schpoople]

You are so good at public presentations. I hope one day I can be that great.

[@flameshoter6]

Passion and full knowledge helps a lot.

[@kelvinjanssen7889]

​@@xyanide0101 I don't think overly serious presentations are that effective. Sprinkling in some comedy helps a ton with maintaining the focus of your audience. Especially with boring presentations like experiment reports etc.

[@jake_runs_the_world]

Congratulations brother!!!

[@im6gesim6ges]

aaaaaaa

[@fastestabdullahxxx]

"We do it for the love really... And the money." Hahaha!

[@Quintinohthree]

Abdullah Mohd. Khan Truest thing ever said.

[@bijoychandraroy]

I wish everyone was that honest i wouldn't even mind buying some more for that

[@PianoTutorialsSynthesia]

So... How accurate was the Aster-graph? Also, youre good on stage!

[@JorgetePanete]

you're*

[@syundown6005]

@@JorgetePanete Thanks grammar nazi! Don't know what'd we do without you :)

[@techheck3358]

Letter L oh ok, why don’t we go back in time, to the original English? Doth not speaketh liketh yond! yond is the ruin'd language!

[@michaeladams3762]

@Letter L Doth not speaketh liketh yond! yond is the ruin'd language!

[@rich1051414]

He showed on it that she was 1 minute later than predicted(but error bars) if I read the graph right. Getting it right within 1 minute is quite amazing.

[@cragie]

Immediately subscribed after this video, the quality of your videos and content is so high and your humor is just excellent.

[@jakejones2126]

But what time was Aster born? Is it within the error bars?

[@Szobiz]

Jake Jones yeah.. I think he didn't said because he got it wrong..

[@ThoughtinFlight]

@Matrix29bear HAHAHA

[@account4345]

Jake Jones 20:55, which is 8:55pm

[@skylarkenneth3784]

@@account4345 That's the first baby's estimated birth. The second's (Aster) estimated time was 18:15, but he didn't confirm the actual birth time.

[@_girldog]

I love how he cracks himself up every time he tells a joke, It’s really sweet

[@uruiamnot]

Wife: I want a bath Steve: I got a graph Midwives: What's this math? Lyra: Finally gotta breath Audience: I gotta laugh

[@GabrielaCoutinho12]

Amazing

[@Sami-xv8ve]

Haha thats cool man !

[@dragon_warrior_]

Hotel : Trivagoooooo

[@mrnerdy3501]

Classic Parker Square

[@hhhapz]

parker birth

[@rpyrat]

"Little errors"

[@troliskimosko]

Mr Nerdy golden

[@ddcddc_]

Parker square wave, am i right, mr 555?

[@beafraidofinsectattack]

Steve mould is that one person who's so charismatic, that if youre an electrical guy(passion for electrics) you'd want to switch skillsets because of the stories and ideas and stuff he tells. One of the best educational youtube guys out there :D

[@zperk13]

Steve: "As you can see there's a point in the future at which my wife's contractions become perfectly regular" Midwives: "No duh, that happens in every childbirth ever" Steve: "and that's a 20:55" Midwives: "..."

[@rei_cirith]

How accurate was the second one?

[@sansamman4619]

that laugh was pretty psychopathic ( at 5:59 ) *-*

[@DeenBoi]

The contractions were getting longer as she said "Whomst'd've"

[@Thewildroadhome]

Please make this a real birth prediction app

[@vapenation7061]

KASA yeah but it would be a lot more useful if it automatically calculated the expected time of birth

[@lazymandoplayer]

Congrats to you and your good lady Steve. It was great to see you, Helen and Matt on the last tour (twice). Now I'm off to buy the DVD ... Happy Christmas to you all.

[@SteveMould]

+Matthew Wilmshurst thanks Matthew!

[@graymouser1]

So, how accurate was the birth time of the second baby? I saw 6:15, but I didn't see any error bars or actual time.

[@marinatiwold]

This is my second time watching this and I just noticed at one point he said "knocked up" and "reproduce" and I don't know if those were accidental or jokes 😂

[@harshpanchal7939]

Pun definitely intended

[@VinceTibo]

Dude you're one of my favourite people on earth, thanks for doing what you do and sharing it with the world!

[@aggelosk.1652]

this is the guy who makes your girl laugh

[@shamiikemi6242]

That graph could be a midi... I wonder how would it sound like...

[@joshuarawl1003]

Pain.

[@aniketthepersuer2310]

This guy took family planning to the next level

[@Omlet221]

I want to see this experiment repeated because being able to predict that accurately time of birth would be very useful

[@nottsoserious]

"I-Its coming out!" "Honey, could you hold it in a minute, my hypothesis would be confirmed!"

[@Esss333]

This prediction should be included in the app!!! What an amazing idea! Had 2 babies, used an app and it would be awesome if the app said something like: based on your contraction length, it looks like your baby will be born at xy

[@akleandres]

Duplicated Steve Mould's graph in Excel: - Initial columns: Time (T), Total Time Since Start of Contractions (TTSSC), Duration of Contractions (DC). - Calculate: mean(DC) + 2 * stdev(DC) for upper bound & mean(DC) - 2 * stdev(DC) for lower bound (stdev using 10 or more previous values of DC) - Calculate exponential trend parameters (m, b with LOGEST) of upper & lower limits using TTSSC & mean(DC) +|- 2 * stdev(DC). - Apply LN(b) to create a new value b1. - Use the exponential formula m*EXP(b1*value) to estimate values for upper and lower bounds for known values and future values. - Calculate intersection of future values with a simple difference.

Do you mind sharing your Excel ?

[@mojosbigsticks]

Festival of the Spoken Nerd is how I heard of Matt Parker. Matt Parker is the reason I found Citation Needed. Citation Needed has saved my sanity on more than one occasion. Thanks Steve.

[@Barlofontain]

I have one of those VHS copies... I regret nothing

[@sahajamatya]

Man this guy was on fire!

[@dnsleu]

" I present to you the most statistically significant baby ever" haha

[@Alinhox]

The whole new level of not-being-an-accident

[@Affeshatem]

Every time you feel bad about your life, remember that there is a child out there and this is their dad...

[@ipraku]

Imagine the baby in the stomach counting till he/she gets birth .

[@Dsslotslv]

0:41 correction! The closer you are to giving birth, the shorter and more often the contractions become.

[@willridgway2513]

I love your videos! Keep up the amazing work!

[@Judymontel]

oh you scientists!! LOVE, LOVE, LOVE this - congrats to you and your wife - and many blessings (including the blessing of sleep) as you go forward.

[@kalebbruwer]

I think Parker got jealous when you fixed your off by one error with an error bar. He didn't have those. Also, he was off by more than one. And some other problems.

[@Dan-tf9kb]

This guys comedic timing is awesome

[@kanescrimes4848]

When the "picture" of Aster popped up I actually laughed out loud.

[@dabj9546]

I was hoping for him to say "the birth was an hour later but whatever I had my fun and exceptions confirm the rule right?"

[@einar00]

How did Steve Mould do those "standard deviation" lines?

[@muhammadneanaa1611]

Same question. Did you find the answer?

[@OsamaElsawwah]

Same question.

[@freshjoseph8655]

how did you make the two orange graphs to predict the birthtime with excel?

[@Cynyr]

I would quite like to know this as well.

[@ericsbuds]

Insert tab -> Charts

[@fudgesauce]

It is a simple banana curve fit. Cavendish, in particular.

[@23Scadu]

Comparing orange graphs to bananas is a fruitless endeavor.

[@Firecul]

+StraightOuttaJarhois I think Matt and Steve would be proud of that

[@anup8811]

can you find when I lack my motivation permanently? They are jumping between 1-2 hours and with time the length gets shorter

[@aryabrinthchakravorty]

watching this for the 2nd time after 2 years and still wondering how high he is

[@bradirv]

I bet you could tell whether it was hot water or cold water when they were filling the pool due to the viscosity of the water

[@YourGamingFix13]

This is the most ive laughed at any of your videos! this is brilliant!

[@areshy4787]

*youtube at 3 am: I predicted the exact time of my daughter's birth using science and data*

[@xl000]

There are other people who did the same calculations, eventually didn't get the exact time. Those people didn't publish the results obviously.

[@gamernick1533]

A steal. Bought it and will watch it once it has come down!

[@gamernick1533]

The DVD... not the baby... :P

[@parthkhaladkar9017]

The two people with their laptops open! I recognize them from YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

[@gustavosantos106]

-Ok, hon, don't be scared but I'm giving birth right now and I need you to convince the midwife. -Worry not, my dear. Just give me a moment to look for an app to read .xlsx files. (This might be my worst nightmare, tho)

[@Peter_1986]

The chemistry between these three guys is amazing.

[@krisraps]

WHAT A CHAMP. 9 Months ! I Predicted When Next Train Will Come To My Station, I Just Watched The Train List

[@nicolasm9458]

Anyone initially think the title was intended to say "from just four graphs" and then realise it was the name of the event?

[@BT7M]

So you predicted the exact moment of her birth, about 50 minutes before it happened? Impressive.

[@opticendymion9627]

I'm just imagining him telling his wife to hold it in for 1 more minute

[@woo3136]

his baby was born then he did that science thingy

[@baltimore52394]

Steve: are there differences in the predictability of a second birth time? OB/GYNs will tell you that labor after a first child is markedly less of an ordeal. I guess your model doesn't take into account the delta in "size of the birthing passage"

[@michaelmccormick5903]

@stevemould What technique, formula, or code did you use to pinpoint time of birth? Did you use excel or another program for stats? Thx

[@iowyyn]

I'm curious about how this would have gone with my son, we had a 5 hour gap with nothing before it all went into overdrive.

[@MelonMediaMedia]

i read the title and i thought you had a daughter, who had a child

[@thelachstar4294]

Recommendations have gifted me this wonder

[@GFmanaic]

That's quite the parker prediction there.

[@chrstina]

it's not fair for you to have this much charisma

[@BangMaster96]

I wouldn't be surprised if Steve had a baby just so he could predict the exact time of the baby's birth

[@narekhart9862]

Dude i love your whole motto and creative knowledge +1 sub

[@Bllinker]

3:35 "And I can reproduce that for you" I think more than a few people missed that

[@devttyUSB0]

Very funny video! Thanks and all the best with your family!

[@MB.MORAN1]

It would be interesting to have an app about uterine contractions, but there are other factors that are important too, like cervical dilation.

[@__-cd9ug]

haha you're a comedic and scientific genius interestingly enough, the etymology of _genius_ means "to give birth" so there's the full circle

[@anthonymacconnell8817]

He didnt give birth though. Thatd be... oh no

[@acatfrompoland5230]

Anthony MacConnell aaaaaaahh future gender change technology

[@fatimatarekalhabshi999]

imagine he's your science teacher, wouldn't that be great. I wish my teacher had that type of humor.

[@LogosNigrum]

Done and Done. I've been waiting for this day in comedy.

[@emboe001]

The embellishment was he got the time right, but the day wrong.

[@hrithik256]

I watched this so many times! Very entertaining!

[@mirjanbouma]

Came for the interesting title, stayed for the hilarious storytelling

[@ultimatedumbass3779]

i took a Sex Ed class a few days ago and we were talking about how birth works, i remember that a girl asked why so many people talk about “How lucky you are to be born” then the teacher explained how theres a “Sperm Race” and the winning sperm gets to be born, there can exactly be 12-18 sperms, and if the mother wants 2 kids, the 2 winning sperms get to be born. Its very complicated to explain but lets say if you lost by 0.7 seconds you wouldn't be here now.

[@GrayPillows]

I just wonder if Aster was born at 18:15. You gotta tell us!

[@cmuller1441]

GrayPillows I bet it didn't work as well the 2nd time or he would have said so...

[@gamingmusicandjokesandabit1240]

Plot twist: That daughter whose birth he predicted by time was in the audience.

[@dallziel6590]

"Why was i born, daddy?" "Just For Graphs"

[@rajaganji7982]

So this was not an TED-Ex

[@p.v.rangacharyulu241]

The shape of plot is weirdly familiar to my...

[@zbarba]

Ok i only read the title but i want to guess: it took 9 months

[@davidparry9892]

what time was Aster born. The graph predicts 18:15, but didn't show the actual time