I Screwed Up: Alphabet (GOOG Stock) Valuation

[@pellemus100]

I love when someone admits a screwup. It’s way more trustworthy than some wannabe guro who think he’s a god..

[@dorthahise1]

Although I have interests in global economics I don't watch the news anymore... I have enough FUD lol. Thanks for this news and offering your insight on how to navigate during unfortunate times/events like this. You're right about keeping level headed when investing so that's why I think it's important to limit the amount of FUD we consume. I don't watch the media but the news that you present has enough to know issues going on without riding the emotional rollercoaster if I were to watch the news everyday. Now I buy and just trade long term more than ever, I have made over 16 btc from day trading with Francine Duguay in few weeks, this is one of the best medium to backup your assets incase it goes bearish.

[@dorthahise1]

Francine duguay program is widely available online..

[@NoeVelasco-lu2mo]

The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.

[@neddle91]

I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Francine's trade signal service.

[@tomthabom240]

Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..

[@NicoleKaiser-jw7qn]

The clarity and precision in Francine market predictions are astounding. I'm so grateful to have found her reviews here on KZbin as well.

[@shawnang280]

I mentioned in your past video. Is still "deep" haha. Good to admit. You are young. I believe with your effort and commitment, you can contribute a lot more in future. Good job. Jia you!

[@carlosleshawn]

Respect this video. Keep doing your thing

[@mduduzimaphanga2890]

I agree that your admission gives your channel more credibility.

[@youssefsoliman2183]

good on you for admitting. subscribed!

[@TheTEDfan]

Great to see the correction. The calculation is now correct but I would argue the model is still wrong. It is good practice to never hard code numbers in formulas. The exponents should be derived from the year values. I.e. 2026-2024=2 with 2026 being calculated as a current year plus the time series increment (1 in this case). The current model will inevitably cause problems again sooner or later.

[@cuhullin3539]

So, the 5% cap-ex for next year is probably wrong, because I'm pretty sure they already warned about the spending budget for next year. They wouldn't warn about a 5% increase. And then your growth rates for 2027 and beyond have to be wrong, and massively at that. If they're spending this much money on what's allegedly the next industrial revolution and the return on that investment is 10%, then this is likely a deteriorating/failing business model and certainly shouldn't be bought at any valuation.

[@renato_n.n]

Yeah. This video asumes that Alphabet is burning dollars like no tomorrow and not getting anything in return. If that is the story then why invest in the company in the first place?

[@SigFigNewton]

There’s likely to be a major pullback in cap ex at some point. Recall what happened to peoples valuation of meta when they cut expenditures. By the way the return they get for the spending isn’t merely market share maintenance and the potential for major breakthroughs such as autonomous driving or Ai, they get rapid cloud growth. I’m even more excited about cloud than I am about them being the largest streaming service on the planet. (KZbin) Strong bull here. Happy to see the negative sentiment from y’all. Tons of room for sentiment to improve.

[@renato_n.n]

@@SigFigNewton I am bullish too. Mine was a rhetoric question.

[@SigFigNewton]

@@renato_n.n dang ☹️🙂

[@mduduzimaphanga2890]

Could you please do videos on nuholdings,sofi and the lumine group a spin-off from constellation software

[@hristolakov3563]

So you do expect less reinvestments and more growth. Does that make sense? I also see you already count for buybacks, by keeping the shares outstanding lower at the end of the projected period, but you do count that as a distributable cash (or FCF) in your calc. How does that happen? Expenses = reinvestments. Much more important thing is to estimate the returns of those incremental investments, instead of pure growth rates.

[@CynthiaMah-z7w]

Why your instrinsic so far off from Adam Khoo's which is 211?

[@coffeemilk4080]

Instrinsic values are calculated based on the average of different valuation models. Each valuation model needs a set of assumptions such as growth rate, CapEx expense. These numbers are calculated based on the story one has about the company. If you look at the price targets of many investment banks and firms, you can clearly see the huge gap between them. In the end, it's up to you to decide which story is truer in your belief. For example, Cathie Wood values Tesla at price 2000 in the next 5 years. Would you believe her who not only underperformed the market for several years but also earn negative return in the last 5 years? Similarly, Adam Khoo predicts way higher than most of the investment banks. In the end, it's up to you.

[@robertsparling2313]

Adam is more inline with reality.

[@avocadoarmadillo7031]

When I value Google according to Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value formula, using a fairly conservative 11% expected growth rate, fair value is $175.49 per share. Considering that this is a blue chip stock with a large moat and dominant market position, it seems strange to me to argue it is overvalued or even at fair value. I like the company and happily hold some.

[@maddstaxx]

Literally no moat. Both cloud and search are extremely competitive and both are Google's main revenue streams.

[@readwithGizmo]

No moat? They have a good damn monopoly

[@SigFigNewton]

@@maddstaxxdo you think Coca Cola has a moat? The power of habit is immense; don’t underestimate it. Meanwhile they don’t even need habit to continue being the largest streaming service in the world because KZbin offers the most personalizable video selection available. Meanwhile they don’t even need habit to remain the leading search engine because having more user data gives them a big advantage in knowing what users who type a certain search are really wanting to find.

[@SigFigNewton]

@@maddstaxxbut yes they have a LOT of market share to lose. Long way down from the top, but they’re on top for very real reasons

[@maddstaxx]

@@readwithGizmo before anti trust, great moat. But that will 100% change

[@JohnSmith-nm2gs]

Hi, could you explain why is it so different with Adam calculation of around $200 ? Considering that both of you are from the same company ? Thanks.

[@weiyongl]

agree fair value only. but when it went from 148 to 157 I felt FOMO

[@dusk2dawn519]

Hey, can you do more on the mag7

[@Avrg_Noob]

GOOG

[@marcoaltran1581]

Your capex numbers are probably wrong. There is a arms race on who’s going to spend the most in new data centers and I think we are nowhere from deceleration. Nonetheless, there is a good chance this capex actually have a high ROI investment

[@compounding999]

In my mind the greatest threat to Google is the emergence of the alternatives eg ChatGPT, Copilot, Gamma etc. Hard to project DCF out a decade even terminal value may be difficult to calculate. Unlike say Hermes which one could be arguably more confident to project out

[@SigFigNewton]

Yup, that’s the fear that has it nice and cheap for me

[@limmike5339]

I only trust Adam Khoo .

[@stockkid8515]

did u include the stock option scheme .. your FCF is too low.

[@vaenusatish7217]

“Cap-ex” not “cape-x” 🙏

[@mduduzimaphanga2890]

You should read up what Marcus Aurelius says about people who fus about pronounciation.

[@sookiattay7043]

Very misleading ,watching your video is a waste of time.

[@sookiattay7043]

Talk rubbish

[@Tmwl221]

Ur Sifu Adam say Goog intrinsic value is 190-200, learn la b4 doing clown here

[@Glide71]

Then U do la knn

[@denggol4064]

Your teacher taught you to be a useful person to the society. But you also being clown here

[@SigFigNewton]

The range of sorta reasonable valuation guesses is far wider than 144-200…

[@SigFigNewton]

Just gauge the fears and invest when they’re high. Don’t try to “know” valuation, try to know when there’s tons of room for people to become more bearish or more bullish. If everyone was as certain as you that the company was gonna go up, I’d be sellin