I Simulated The F1 2024 Season 1000 Times

🏎️ Are you ready to dive into the thrilling world of F1 predictions? In this electrifying video, we take simulation to the next level by running the F1 2024 season a staggering 1000 times to uncover the most likely outcomes, surprises, and championship contenders. Get ready for a rollercoaster ride of predictions, analysis, and excitement as we unveil the results of our simulated season!
#f12024 #f1 #formula1
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Witness the power of simulation as we embark on an epic journey through 1000 iterations of the F1 2024 season. From unexpected upsets to nail-biting finishes, each simulation offers unique insights into the potential outcomes of the upcoming championship.
Delve into the data as we analyze the results of our simulations to identify trends, patterns, and statistical probabilities for the 2024 F1 season. Discover which drivers and teams are projected to shine, which circuits could be decisive, and how unforeseen factors may influence the championship battle.
Brace yourselves for surprises and controversies as we unveil the unexpected twists and turns that emerged from our simulated season. From underdog triumphs to unexpected rivalries, our predictions are sure to keep you on the edge of your seat.
Don't miss out on the excitement! Subscribe to our channel and hit the notification bell to stay updated on all our future videos, exclusive content, and insider insights into the world of Formula 1. Whether you're a seasoned fan or new to the sport, our channel is your go-to destination for all things F1!
Get ready to embark on a journey of predictions and projections unlike any other as we simulate the F1 2024 season 1000 times. Like, subscribe, and join us as we count down to the start of an exhilarating new chapter in Formula 1! 🌟🏁🎮
Thank you for watching, hopefully you enjoyed it and if you did leave a like on the video, subscribe if you are new and I will see you next time!
Copyright Disclaimer: Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. There are certain scenes from the Formula 1 calendar where race footage is used. All those rights are property of FOM. Other photos and news elements are used solely for the purpose of assisting the original content illuminate a more in depth story.

[@waza987]

What I took from this is both Piastri and Alonso have a 1 in a 1000 chance of winning the championship.

[@NotApplicableJB]

May the odds be ever in your favour

[@ccqpl]

@@NotApplicableJBGOATASTRI

[@TheDailySnail]

Pre video prediction: Verstappen wins all 1000

[@NotApplicableJB]

Maybe... Maybe not...

[@Antonelli-kimi]

Pretty accurate

[@sebfettel]

Lol

[@michaelgideon8944]

If the simulation doesn't have at least one outcome where Max wins every race, then the methodology is likely flawed. It seems that is more likely than Piastri as champion.

[@mohamedbenali3828]

Agreed

[@visionnr2004]

I wonder if VCARB got second in the constructors and Red Bull finished third in the same simulation, if so that would be hilarious

[@Jigds]

Dr. Strange predicting 2024 season - 1 in a billion combinations Haas winning constructors and 1 in a trillion combinations Hulk winning driver's championship. Komatsu is searching desperately for the Infinity Stones.

[@NotApplicableJB]

It’s the spin off to drive to survive we are all asking for

[@Wozzabunnyofficial_37]

1 in a trillion of hulk getting a podium

[@la8920]

Jesus. Red bull is reaching Thanos levels of inevitability

[@realmiker]

Maybe send send cap back to collect the time stone before Red Bull does

[@_ariosto1519]

Nice! Now we are going into the F1 multiverse! 😂

[@NotApplicableJB]

Anyone else realised there’s more than one max Verstappen running around all of a sudden?

[@IFWF]

@@NotApplicableJBi betting so much that alonso is still finding a good club to stay in for 40000

[@officialredactor]

Is it possible to see an Excel spreadsheet of all of the sims?

[@danellis-jones1591]

This is a great idea. It'll be very interesting to see if any actually come true. I've not seen this done by anyone before. It could easily become part of mt pre-seasom must watches along with Tommo's car livery redesigns

[@NotApplicableJB]

Thanks so much, I definitely underestimated how long it would take hense getting it out just in time before the first race. But now I have it sorted I can definitely see myself doing even more in-depth versions

[@drummerd2403]

If the Williams of Alex Albon actually won a race, or even got on the podium the F1 world would be turned upside down. This is from a Williams fan

[@NotApplicableJB]

I think it was a race where there were quite a lot of retirements. A bit like when Ocon won Hungary

[@ryancuda45]

ive been wanting a williams win for along time. i hope they do good and get alot of points this season with both drivers

[@alicekoppenol-pitti6257]

The race of statistics against reality. I would encourage you to make a video halfway through the season to see how many of the stats came close to reality.

[@uglyhorseteethbritsht]

It is innacurate because in reality redbull will always come 1st

[@ThePashaplaybug]

is it bad that I could recognize all the greyed out images without seeing the final thing?

[@NotApplicableJB]

A true F1 fan!

[@penusliski]

Try running a million simulations. That should allow Stroll to win at least one title

[@annanymous03]

I‘d love a version of this of the Driver‘s standings, if it‘s not too much work :)

[@wyattloser]

oscar on top haas on bottom toto malding with 46 points this is my reality i will not be leaving it

[@FrostyFrostySnow]

I'd be more than ok with this

[@ekpraveen03]

Would be nice to see a technical breakdown of how you simulated the data and maybe some other things like acquiring the data etc

[@F1alCubo]

yesss, that woukd be great

[@belodie]

Was there a simulation where Max won every race?

[@gil8512]

Redo your thumbnail and have your face superimposed on dr strangers head checking all possible futures

[@NotApplicableJB]

That’s a great idea! Maybe next time 🤣

[@JMRope]

So in any of these simulations did Max win all 24 races? That seems more likely to me than anyone else winning the championship.

[@NotApplicableJB]

That’s a great point, I’ll have a look back through the data because I’m sure there must have been one where he won everything

[@mastertrams]

Might be an idea to go through last year's finishing position (driver) and see what their highest and lowest finishes were. So, starting with Logan Sargent, and building your way up to Verstappen... Also, I saw another comment, but would be interesting to see if Max ever won the max number of races...

[@c0mpl3x91]

Now you can reajust the simulations with the first race data and recheck everything? Would be cool

[@BL45_BD6]

What did you use to simulate all the seasons

[@NotApplicableJB]

A modified version of f1 2023 that adjusted the teams performances based on the second half of last year

[@ericjungmann6312]

@@NotApplicableJB he asked what u used not how u did it.

[@robb5270]

You have Red Bull finishing in 3rd twice….Did max pass away early on in this seasons or get put in a wheel chair? Because if max is in the car finishing below 2nd will be impossible

[@NotApplicableJB]

It predicted Red Bull having reliability problems a few times, I think maybe due to some of Perez’s DNFs at the end of last year

[@michaelgideon8944]

Clearly you should have added preseason testing to the mix. Alpine last year isnt the same team. The 2nd half performance was down to all the people they fired or are now resigning. Many of the teams have changed aero concept over the break too.

[@NotApplicableJB]

Definitely, unfortunately the time frame didn’t work. I had to start running the simulations just before testing to get the video out before Bahrain

[@michaelgideon8944]

@@NotApplicableJB This has been such a chaotic year it has to be hard to model. How do you estimate Horner potentially getting fired???

[@reptongeek]

7:31 No we don't count Sprint races, because they aren't called Sprint races. According to the regulations they are properly referred to as Sprint Sessions. An Oscar or Fernando championship year would be amazing though Just curious, but how many races did Lance win in these 1,000 simulations!!

[@jivewig]

Can you make a post or a video on how exactly you did this simulation? Really curious to know, thanks!

[@NotApplicableJB]

Sure thing, although I had quite a bit of help so don't know if I am the best person to explain it 😅 I'll see what I can do

[@mynulkarimmahim5878]

​@@NotApplicableJB Yes plz do make a follow-up video on that, would love to learn about how you did this

[@chloehnoelle]

Unlisted video with driver standing prediction data for my fantasy league? 👀😅

[@NotApplicableJB]

Who have you picked for your team so far?

[@chloehnoelle]

@NotApplicableF1 charles, Carlos, logan, alonso, and Botta. Ferrari and mclaren constructors. Honestly not too bad this race 😅 top of my league so far

[@Shawn-ik6dr]

Just curious, but did those simulations take into account that IF the midfield battles get spicy and collisions occur, that yellow and red flags happen? And who seems to come out on top after one lap, or the first corner?

[@NotApplicableJB]

It had DNFs built in so kind of. Definitely needs some tweaking for the midfield battles

[@aliv.8677]

Maybe use the data to do a video about each driver or GP, or just the more interesting ones

[@NotApplicableJB]

That’s the plan for next time, just ran out of time before the season actually starts 😅

[@Adwnpinoy310]

This was great! Can you do it for last year and see how many simulations Max gets 19 wins, etc…

[@aliv.8677]

I would to be able to see all the results of the simulations look for details about certain drivers/races

[@ehh300]

Crazy that RL is tracking with the 6% that have Alpine at the bottom hahahah

[@katy4523]

This was a delightful dream land. Might be fun to do with the results from the first half of the season to see if it can predict the results of the 2024 season

[@NotApplicableJB]

That’s a great plan, I’ll see what I can do during the summer break

[@katy4523]

@@NotApplicableJB good luck! I used to work with data on the job and I know it's not always the easiest.

[@OscarZheng50]

f1 is actually pretty competitive, well expect for p1

[@ayoutubechannel7143]

Cool video but it’d be more interesting using a realistic simulator instead of this EA garbage

[@NotApplicableJB]

If you can build a more sophisticated simulator let me know 😄

[@ayoutubechannel7143]

@@NotApplicableJB damn i've been called out 😅

[@Dayne-Lua]

Wow that is really surprising indeed honestly if Alonso would win his 3rd title at Aston I would be dissapointed because I want Vettel to be the first champion at Aston Martin he was the one who made Aston look good in 2023 and honestly he should of stayed at Aston for 2023. Also I like to see a Albon and Williams win of course.

[@NotApplicableJB]

I think that’s fair, it would have been great to see Vettel get a win at least. But I’m not sure we will actually see an Aston world champ anytime soon 😅

[@lasarith2]

Back when I had F1 2001 the game was pretty accurate in predicting who would win the race ( for the next day ) from the grid line up, perhaps testing it with the current version just to see - oh yeah max is is first followed. By ( drivers here)

[@jonathanarie2813]

While if u simulate f1 2020, you'd get Pourchaire champion in Alfa by season 3. Newer games just go backwards.

[@milanstragier6142]

How was this even simulated? It's impossible (unless you have a couple weeks free) to simulate 1000 seasons in F1 23. It'd be really cool tho if it was possible to find that file somewhere and look through it ourselves

[@f.kieranfinney457]

This method is how Mercedes tests its ideas too. Obviously. There’s theory and there’s experience. There’s no chance McLaren wins either title. Even if Max died tomorrow RB would still win.

[@EwanderingroundYT]

Alpine said lol sike

[@ImHavingaCoronary]

Let me pull numbers out of thin air……actually completely obvious that Mclaren wins, given their second half of the last seasons improvements. Duh.

[@CF_Racing]

did someone say simulation

[@NotApplicableJB]

I thought if you the entire time 😂

[@CF_Racing]

@@NotApplicableJB I gotta sim 10 years 1000 times 👀

[@NIGERIAN_K]

​@@CF_RacingU thaught you was escaping me?💀😂

[@CF_Racing]

@@NIGERIAN_K 😂

[@Tommydrengen]

Looking at this now, Hass is in tie for 5th place with RB, I know alot can happend, but I hope that these statictis isn't right, because then there is no reason to actually watch Formel 1.

[@Rindiculousfun]

Alpine gonna put this simulation to shame XD

[@snowy.ethereal]

i'm curious how many races lando won in this simulation

[@kacieogle513]

You should do one of these with all current and former champions... that would be very interesting

[@A350-x2k]

10:17 im a Mercedes fan, not a toxic fan though. I did not deserve to feel so much pain hearing mercedes finish 7th in the constructors ;-;

[@mikemelina7395]

Did you factor in the fact that Red Bull came out with a car that doesn't degrade the tyres? Did you factor in the RB20? Here's the problems with simulations and algorithms; Garbage In Garbage Out.

[@NotApplicableJB]

I should have put in a newey clause, then red bull would just dominate

[@mikemelina7395]

@@NotApplicableJB Red Bull might as well give Newey a share of the team, he's a built in cheat code.

[@SNKr]

I don't know what exact list of parameters you used for the Simulations and you even mentioned using random variables to make these simulation. A better way of doing this could be using some bench mark test values from ore season testings and applying a slightly adjusted upgrade schedules using some reference values for manufacturing with cost cap limit applied to run Simulations with the driver placements and lap time records adjusted for expected spec bumps of this year cars. I mean this model could be improved upon but something like this has to be the core of the Simulations. Hope you can make better improved one in future with limited parameters defined by data from races before the mid season break for the mid season break.

[@NotApplicableJB]

The data definitely needed some fine tuning so I’ll be saving this comment for next time! I’ll be honest I haven’t done anything like this before so the main thing I spent time on was understanding how to modify the game to get the results. But next time will be more sophisticated.

[@SNKr]

@@NotApplicableJB oh you did the Simulations using f1 game? Sorry I thought you used some data analytics tools to do this. Makes sense we can't push the game beyond what we are given access to. FYI I don't own the games, so the idea of using the game for simulation never occurred to me 😅.

[@mightyakkylex]

That champion shadow was Alonso 100% (haven't watched yet)

[@Bohonk212]

Guess that model works as well as all those climate models that failed so miserably.

[@NotApplicableJB]

To be fair I’m no simulation expert but I gave it a shot

[@voiceover2191]

As you say, using random parameter values makes any prediction just as random, so what's the point, exactly?

[@NotApplicableJB]

It was more for the fun of it rather than me actually trying to predict the future 🔮

[@voiceover2191]

@@NotApplicableJB Fair enough

[@TheEvertw]

Obviously, you used the Monte Carlo simulation method.

[@kubablazusiak]

Is it possible to see all the data on a spreadsheet or something

[@matteocecconi7560]

They're is absolutely no point of doing that with last year perf

[@matthiascerebri3315]

Imagine Magnussen being champion and Verstappen P20

[@NotApplicableJB]

Ahh the reverse universe

[@charliep123]

I wish I could have seen some live reactions from these simulations

[@sajeucettefoistunevaspasme]

"surprisingly alpine is eigth" Alpine last + Haas quite high

[@Dayne-Lua]

I do have a question for you. Ranked these f1 drivers from best to worst when it comes to their prime between Hamilton, Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen and Verstappen?

[@huseyinresimator3818]

I think that you are being extremely positive for 2024 season that other drivers will be the champion, even your simulatio says that. But being positive makes feel better so I respect that.

[@wonfo2510]

how did you simulate 1000 times in f1 23?

[@farz32]

Did checo win the championship?

[@neokoz]

Give me simulation #374. Not only for the Alonso Championship but a Hulk podium? Yes please!

[@KeithCaptain]

Great idea, interesting outcomes. I’m going to the version of the multiverse where Oscar wins this year. Cheers.

[@lucianov.perdomo5075]

Mercedes in 7th ❤

[@user-cw4bs8ub2b]

You forgot the multiplier ‘Newey’ and ‘Verstappen’

[@ralphe5842]

I think you need to upgrade your computer

[@princeofravens4882]

That was wicked cool

[@Wizzkidwas]

I just want the simulation where Stroll wins a race

[@Esperanza77711]

😂

[@TMC_TimeLine]

I think it would be a fun experiment to see at the end of the season which simulation was the closest to actually predicting the season correctly

[@johndansby3620]

Matt and Tommy do the same but use lots of hopium instead of sim to see the 2024 F1 season outcome.

[@jojo8112.2]

I just want to be in simulation 374

[@mountaineersportsandgaming2688]

Did max get a perfect season?

[@Rocking2011]

RB finished 3rd 13 times and 2nd 3 times 😂

[@dRabbitGaming]

so you are saying there's a chance

[@shakesnbake]

Brilliant! Thanks for putting this together. Can you pick one simulation at random and see how stands at the end of the season?

[@nickconnor6078]

hope you do a video after the season ends... would be interesting on the basis of evaluating how good the simulation was

[@lzjilani]

We need sim 92 to be real😭

[@bloxoss]

Go max ❤ 🏁

[@thomashancock1462]

I cant imagine how long this took. Love the dedication to the content!

[@bomorald236]

Up to this point, I think Alpine rly won’t do well

[@TomC8042]

Is there access to this anywhere where we could see the results of every simulation?

[@maestrohulk746]

sainz being 2nd would be fire tho

[@thedodoaw]

Was it a universe where max won all 24 races?

[@Lazlum]

How did you make the simulations?

[@azpeckk]

I wanna see some of these races

[@MVPCarlos1]

6:23 we are in fact not living in one

[@TheRedCommander-k5d]

Now we are lol (constructors)

[@SsSHardt]

This didnt age well

[@zenthous9568]

‘How many do we win’ *one*

[@twanvorstenbosch]

what a waste of time

[@NotApplicableJB]

Thanks for the engagement

[@twanvorstenbosch]

@@NotApplicableJB I'm sorry , i shouldn't have said it that way , it was never my intention to be rude!! Nothing wrong with your video's i like your video's!! Due to lack of time this morning i just wrote a quick comment , so again , sorry about that!! What i meant to say was , I cannot believe that the simulation can/will be accurate , but i'm certainly very curious about the outcome at the end of the F1 season , so i subscribed to your channel , and if it turns out that your 1000 × simulation is correct i'll be the first to give you all the credits 😉.

[@jasonkrisko6217]

As an American, i refuse to acknowledge haas as an American team.

[@ryancuda45]

williams is more american then haas and williams has history so glad doralton saved williams from going under and keeping the team alive to preserve franks team

[@bozoclown99]

Haven't seen your channel before and don't know your credentials, but as a navigation engineer with plenty of simulation, experience the devils in the details of the simulation and you really don't give any details generally speaking, given the fluid dynamics of formula 1 in the teams and their developments, I find the even the idea of this to be absurd and talking about something that happened one time in 1000 i.e., 0.1% is even more silly There's no way you can run a simulation on Formula One like say madden 24 expect anything resembling reality In the end your results basically just look like 2024 with some funny tweaks in them /240229

[@NotApplicableJB]

I am very much aware that this is just a piece of fun and not really a viable way of predicting the actual performance for the cars. If that was possible then all the teams would have done it and would know how to win the championship! But cool to meet a navigation engineer, how long have you been doing that? Is engineering how you got into F1?

[@slow0017]

Vcarb*

[@eddymoretti3742]

Well I hope your simulations are wrong. Despite what my personal preferences are, the sport needs to see McLaren and Aston Martin rewarded for hard work, Williams move ahead, and even Alpine needs to do well. Otherwise the sport will suffer: Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari need to be challenged for real.

[@Blazing_suns]

He is wrong. Verstappen win 99.9%

[@Cryptoguy00728]

F1 come in India. Yes or No?

[@jer3487]

🤣🤣🤣

[@uglyhorseteethbritsht]

The only way Verstappen wouldnt win is when his car breaks down or he hits the wall.