Iceland's Possible Eruption Scenarios Explained: Geologist Analysis

[@shawnwillsey]

Please LIKE and SUBSCRIBE. I also appreciate your continual support of these geology education videos. To do so, click on the "Thanks" button just above (right of Download button) or by going here: www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=EWUSLG3GBS5W8 Or: www.buymeacoffee.com/shawnwillsey

[@brezilla]

You’ve been very instrumental throughout this entire year, and have taught so many of us about these kind of eruptions. As always keep up the wonderful work you and others collectively do, and will continue to do.

[@andrestein6022]

It's nice to have a channel that has next to zero negativity in the comments to watch, lol

[@debbiepatt2573]

He's good eh

[@shawnwillsey]

Thanks and I've learned from others as much as I have shared. It's been a great team effort.

[@Mamadeb-17]

Thank you Shawn, you make all the difficult stuff understandable 👏👏

[@kateclover874]

it's been a busy year. Thank you for all your reporting, Amanda's help and Bruce's reports too. The drone flights have been excellent too. All fascinating and good learning.

[@rubato88]

Happy belated 1 year Iceland video anniversary Professor. All great stuff.

[@Blueyedlady007]

I saw your update (which was great btw) just as I was contemplating watching that other video. Thank you for continuing to keep us informed and updated without all the hype. And thanks to Bruce and the rest of your team for all they contribute. Almost a year in and I have learned so much. LOVE YOUR DIAGRAMS!! 👏

[@LizWCraftAdd1ct]

Thank you Shawn for a considered non sensational explanation of the possibilities of future eruptions. Your thoughts are very.much appreciated by your fans.

[@jamesdubben3687]

We appreciate your thoughtful (and data driven) approach to science education.

[@AngieVines]

Was at the Blue Lagoon this morning and also rode through Grindavik. Very interesting to actually see in person what I have been following with you for the last year! What a sad state in Grindavik. Thank you for your information that is easy to understand.

[@marionnadeau8457]

I watched part of that video and thought it was odd that they would concentrate on that scenario. Thanks for clearing things up, Shawn!

[@andreaDoubleU]

Thank you so much for this great update and also talking about what the likelihoods are! This is super helpful and very much appreciated today! 🙏🏻😊

[@susiesue3141]

Thanks so much for this update on Iceland. 😊 Very much appreciated!

[@kathleenmccann3120]

Thanks again. Sad to see that about Vafri. Bruce is my data visualization hero. This was a really great concise overview of the current situation and potential scenarios. Love your diagrams too. Always great to see these updates.

[@megbernstein8452]

I always enjoy these updates and the new cartoon plus Bruce Garner’s graphs. Thanks!

[@raenbow66]

The past year has had many epic moments! Yours is the perfect source for data and education, Shawn. I hope others show appreciation with financial support, too! ❤

[@rosemaryhenderson494]

Thanks to you and Bruce for this (always love Bruce's graphs). Sorry to hear about the loss of the loss of the earthquake data - I'll check that several times per day when the eruptions/intrusions seen imminent and I'll miss that.

[@davidduma7615]

Your "cartoon" is great. Very helpful.

[@sfos4898]

Fascinating discussion. Thanks so much! I look forward to your posts.

[@Ifyoucanreadthisgooglebroke]

I prefer more caution and to be mindful of the high impact scenarios as soon as they are not just fringe possibilities. He was quite up front that it was a low probability scenario, but wanted to present it because the possibility is forming. Gotta side with GH here. Any familiarity with his content makes one aware he is no sensationalist doing things for drama. He is just firmly on team caution and awareness of high impact scenarios. And it is always clear from him that they are low probability when they are, as they usually are. You are never in the right when you are on the side citing tourism and business concerns as an excuse to say don't talk about the shark. That is for the politicians, not the behavior of scientists.

[@barrydysert2974]

Agreed ‼️

[@roevhaal578]

Shawn sounds a bit like the Fukushima Nuclear Powerplant directors in this video imo.

[@richzarria]

"You are never in the right when you are on the side citing tourism and business concerns as an excuse to say don't talk about the shark". I tried all day yesterday to come up with something half as good as this statement.

[@scottsacoustica4792]

Actually, I had ran across your channel thanks to the Central Washington University's channel with Nick Zentner. Awesome stuff from both of you fellows! I am glad you addressed the other channel's video, it is not the first time a topic was sensationalized, though I do find the content informative. I would love to be a fly on the wall 250 years from now to see how the science has progressed in predictability.

[@jackiesoanes5519]

Thank you, so good to have good information without any click bait.

[@boudoir00]

I’ve started watching your updates sometime in November last year. Whenever I see a new video pop up in my KZbin feed, I’ll watch it. Thank you so much for your updates. I’ve never been particularly interested in volcanoes or Iceland before, but coming from a science background myself, I really appreciate your approach. I’ve learned a lot and I feel enriched because of it.

[@joannekellam191]

Thanks for the data-driven update, a great one as always. Thanks also to Bruce G. for his insightful modeling! And thanks also for speaking out against that inflammatory video.

[@joane8651]

Thank you, again, Professor, for teaching well, keeping us updated and educated.

[@suehayes2001]

I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the thermal signatures that Just Icelandic showed near Keilir and the Oddafell sensor where a swarm of earthquakes has happened in recent weeks. Those were visible on Bruce's eq map you showed towards the end of your video.

[@shawnwillsey]

Thermal imagery is helpful when the eruption has begun as it helps track/map lava. Changes in the thermal properties of the ground surface and soil, in this case (with no eruption), is usually related to the hot groundwater (or hydrothermal) system which is very dynamic. Thermal properties of the surface can change with precipitation, fluctuations in groundwater level, variations in groundwater plumbing system, etc. Just look at the thermal properties in Yellowstone which vary yearly, monthly, weekly, and sometimes daily. These reflect the shallow groundwater system and not the movement of magma in the subsurface.

[@chasdegeofroy3091]

Very informative. I love your reports; I am following them all. Thanks, Chas.

[@reekoreeko1857]

Thanks again shawn, for being the voice of reason as well as being informative. I absolutely agree with you regarding "that" video. I was very surprised by it and shocked that such a claim was being made by someone I considered to be well informed. I was prompted to comment as such for the first time in that channel. Also because of a claim made by what is happening on the African rift that did not materialise. Thanks to all of those who have been helping you to help us and for the time you spend giving us your insights and facts. Not to be over dramatic, it seems most scenarios are going to be a headache for that region short of an intrusion and cessation of inflow. Regards and health to all.

[@jacquie-h4530]

Thank you, Shawn, for the non-sensationalist update. You make complex concepts understandable and I always come away feeling like I have learned something new.

[@BrianHutchison-u4l]

Thank you Shawn - you've made it a great year!

[@joannmay-anthony1076]

I loved this video. I found you looking for a geo course and scotland and iceland are my two favorite spots. can't wait to check out the iceland videos. are you ever going to do a vid on James Hutton (my geo hero) and scotland? I have added you to my list of geo heros, Hutton, Iain Stewart, and Richard alley (even tho he is a glaciologist). I only live about 2 hours from Penn State and would love to sit in on his lectures. (Sorry about no caps, there is something up with my right shift key) Keep up the good work. Wish I would have found your channel when it first came out instead of in Oct 2024.

[@shawnwillsey]

I went to Scotland in 2016 with students and would love to go back and make some videos. Siccar Point, Knockan Crag, Arthur's Seat, Glen Tilt, etc. So many great sites.

[@joannmay-anthony1076]

@@shawnwillsey That was on my bucket list, to got to all those places and follow James Hutton's path to Geology. Especially to the fork in the river in the highlands where he found granite and limestone come together (Glenco????). At least i think it was limestone, since my brain surgery, I sometimes screw up my nouns and pronouns.

[@sheilagraham8543]

Can’t believe it’s a year since I was fortunate to discover your channel. I appreciate all you, Amanda-Jo, Bruce, etc. do to😮keep us updated with regards to the ongoing situation in Iceland. I also enjoy your Grology 101 podcast: takes me back many years to listening to my son when he was at university studying geology 😀.

[@paularoberts8540]

Excellent summary Shawn, thankyou for summarising the scenarios rationally.

[@Dinoduck24]

Great update, I love your content and explanation of what may happen. I look forward to watching your streams❤️

[@garz75]

Hi thank you as always for the update, and to Bruce for the graphics. I noticed in this video and the previous an annoying high pitched “electronics” noise that must be picked up by your microphone. it’s pretty uncomfortable for people sensitive to high frequency noise…

[@nigels.6051]

I was wondering if he had a.high speed diamond saw preparing samples in the background! I do think using a significantly better quality microphone would be justified, this audio setup really isn't good, maybe the microphone from the new camera could be used in the "studio"?

[@mtcynthus]

I was wondering if it was something to do with Shawn’s microphone…?

[@J.MarioMelo]

Thank you Shawn. You make this stuff quite understandable for the common people

[@mimic1205]

Thanks for another great update. The different perspectives on what is happening underground is fascinating. I stand in awe of this amazing living planet.

[@xwiick]

Thanks for all the hard work on these videos!

[@gonemadinnz]

Wow! You have been busy! Keep them coming. I'm an addict when it comes to Icelandic eruptions. I couldn't believe my luck arriving on Aug 22nd! Thanks!

[@elinhansen1638]

Thank you for your updates and your wise words at the end! ❣

[@thaddeusjones7868]

I went and watched the other video for myself and I agree with the Prof, the first few minutes definitely would cause a knee jerk/ spit coffee reaction. Thanks Prof for taking the time to clarify and weigh possible outcomes and likelihood of said outcomes with the data currently available. Much appreciated again!

[@RayMcB]

Always enjoy Bruce Garners analysis.

[@kimhumbert9335]

Happy Anniversary! It’s been a great year of learning!

[@sandrine.t]

Many thanks for your two cents, Shawn, and for addressing "that" video. Your rational, careful and fact-based updates are much appreciated :) So, we won't have vafri any longer, and I see that LFI is offline and "will not be returning in the immediate future", that's too bad... Also, many thanks to Bruce G. for his data analysis, very helpful as always :) Keep up the great work, guys!

[@AnimilesYT]

I know exactly which video you're talking about, and it also seemed very odd and clickbaity to me. I normally trust their videos, so I thought there was actually a high chance that it would erupt in Grindavik. Thank you for correcting this and thank you for the update!

[@stackmanstack]

The channel you are mentioning has been spot on every time

[@Rekeaki]

I didn’t see it as odd or clickbaity, I saw it as a video where the author genuinely believed that this was a high enough risk that it warranted a warning. Sure, they could be wrong, but I see no evidence based on their past videos that they have EVER changed their narrative or pushed unlikely scenarios purely for the views. Nobody is perfect and scientists can be wrong, it is going to occasionally happen that a scientist really believes something that turns out to be wrong.

[@maryannekelly3251]

Exactly, always on point​@@stackmanstack

[@sigisoltau6073]

Which one is it?

[@fake6168]

@@sigisoltau6073 geologyhub's video from yesterday; tldr: he believes there's a good chance that lava might make its way into grindavik based on increasing magma volume...personally thought that it is a reasonable take

[@katesommerville7217]

Speaking for myself, I have learned heaps but not enough!!! Love to learn.

[@StarBitt97]

Thank you! I was wondering about that other video. I could kind of see where he was coming from but your scenario makes more sense to me too. I am not a geologist, but just using common sense.

[@RayMcB]

Thanks for the update!😊

[@Suzieq5446]

We all will have to wait and see!

[@ChrisGVE]

I like Bruce's graph, it appears to indicate that the time lapse between eruptions increases with time. It will be interesting to see if this observation gets confirmed as we go ahead.

[@Hippogriff_titch]

Well said, and thank you for your time again

[@janisgallagher2722]

Thank you for this interesting update. I always enjoy your videos. 😊

[@elizabethfierro8104]

Hey Shawn, a few months ago I got excited when you talked about a volcano bingo card. You told me about a game you used to pay with your family called Volcanic Disaster. I found it used on Amazon. I got it for my 6 year old grandson. He loves to play games like this. Well, I sat down tonight with my husband to do a run-through to see if it would work for him. First we were impressed with the quality of the playing cards. Within just a few minutes of play we decided that our daughter, who teaches geology at the University of South Dakota, might love it for her students on a lab day or something. By the time we finished we said "Forget that, we are not giving this away to anyone, at least not yet". Thanks for a wonderful suggestion for two retirees.

[@shawnwillsey]

That’s great to hear. It’s a really fun game! Thanks for sharing this. It’s a favorite of our family.

[@mightymouseofnyc]

This was an ideal explanation. It's always important to do a risk analysis/assessment when presented with situations like these.

[@jacobe2995]

can you find out why vafri website is closing down? and if not does anyone know an alternative? I really liked the simplicity of it when looking at eq in the area.

[@robmez]

Thank you , still learning,loving my new new geology journey

[@claudlane]

Happy Anniversary !!!🎉🥳

[@LisaEggleston-kd6ur]

Thanks for the update Shawn.

[@denergodok]

Thank you very much for the very detailed information, Shawn! It truly is interesting to follow your videos and it's nice to see someone being a bit more on the cautious and respectful side of things. Wonder what is going on with the gps earthquake map though, since the service is closing down. Are they having financial trouble? I also see that the Live from Iceland KZbin channel has kinda died. The channel still exist, but they have stopped all their live cameras and their info tells us thanks for watching and informs us that they're not gonna return in the immediate future, which I think is very sad. I've been having lots of their cameras up on my monitors up basically 24/7, so it feels kinda empty to not have them on anymore 😢 And also, speaking of the gps data, it looks like things are ramping up a bit around the dike, lots of small earthquakes in the area right now

[@debbiepatt2573]

Well said! I was surprised too at what the site was putting fwd. In fact I didn't finish watching it. Normally this site is interesting 🤔. Thanks for this 👍 Love your work. Congrats on the effort you put in. I certainly have learnt a lot & now look at NZ in a different light.

[@sonjo2419]

Yup.. I remember looking you being my goto geologist back then. Still are. 🤸🏽‍♂️💥

[@laurieboutilier954]

Hey Shawn, appreciate the updates and your content. I found it interesting that you would put down a fellow Geologist and his calculations as “clickbait” when at the end of the day neither of you know for sure. You are entitled to your opinions based on the info you receive just as the other video has the same right. At the end of the day we all want the people of Iceland to be prepared and safe!

[@reekoreeko1857]

To be fair, it did come across as clickbait. Unintended? Who knows. His videos on Africa seemed to be rather over dramatic that came to nothing. We shall see. I think a northward flow is a far more likely scenario.

[@Veronika-wi1rq]

No sorry very sensational! And very low on the probability scale. I would have more respect if he did what Shaun did and explain the possibilities and not just focus on one and dramatise it. Not professional. In my opinion, he does this a lot. Not worthy of my viewing from now on.

[@LeighAnn_S]

As always, thank you, Shawn! ✌️💙

[@Chris-ho2by]

Many thanks for your explanations. I keep wondering about the magma cooling rates. Is there any data (perhaps some graphs ?) about the cooling time of magma (probably with variables such as depth, dyke thickness, time, magma chemistry etc) ? I am trying to picture how partially cooled magma behaves, it seems very fluid (or low viscosity) when erupting, but presumably becomes more viscous over time and perhaps has varying 'toughness' in mechanical engineering terms (so imagine a charpy test on cool rock vs partially cooled magma), and how this might affect the eruption site. Keep up the good work !

[@bengtsoderman]

Question: What about the area there all this started? Fagradalsfell 2021? Is it quiet nowadays?

[@loisrossi841]

Happy anniversary!

[@elfox3537]

I was never really interested in volcanos before I found your channel, but you changed that! Thank you for taking the time to explain this volcanic system and keeping us updated on what’s happening. 👍I Also, it’s difficult to follow your cursor on the screen. Please consider making your mouse cursor bigger and a darker color. 🙂

[@StormyWitchnado]

Thank you for everything you do Professor! ❤

[@crashbandicoot802]

I think mostly the other channel was talking about an increase in volume other than location being the issue, just my opinion. None of these channels looking for a starting location or final primary vent point have been right yet.

[@DianeSmith-h3t]

So good to learn all this. Brilliant. 👍Di…Cumbria

[@maryt2887]

Thanks, Shawn. Thanks, Bruce.

[@sheilagraham8543]

Whoops - can’t get rid of the face which appears between the words “to keep”. In my earlier post. Sorry about that!

[@bartjes2509]

Thanks Shawn, I can remember they estimated magme reaching some 500m under Grindavik during the November 10 intrusion. I also think the next eruption will be between due East from the powerplant to the August site but not (much) further North as the accumulation 'hotspot' is still at Svartsengi. I do wonder what is going to happen between Fagradalsfjall and Kleifarvatn lake in de near future...

[@planekrazy1795]

Thank You Professor for your thoughts and update. Not sure what happened with the Live From Iceland multi vue and associated links for the live earthquakes and GPS etc. Don't know if that is connected to the imminent loss of the live earthquake map. I hope everything is well with Live from Iceland.

[@gregwebster8362]

Thank you for clarifying that.

[@shaunpapworth4269]

Thank you Shawn for the 154th video I think I've watched all 153 and this one and will continue to watch your videos in the future 😀 I keep meaning to ask you how do you get all the previous eruptions and data up on Google earth I've been trying to get that up for a while now on my pc but I haven't been able to, any help would be greatly appreciated.

[@leokaloper4132]

Just today, after having seen a usual news reporting an eq in Greece, I rushed to the italian ingv site, they have almost all worldwide eqs in detail, and there was one saying Reykjanes, icealnd. When I opened a details page for this particular eq. it showed kind od 1000 km south west in the ocean, though if I remember correctly, a 6 one, I think it was.

[@JulianaAndersson]

Well… my two cents here… which isn’t worth much, but the pattern starts in dec at top of “hill” (north)then goes down toward grindavik (south), then up towards first location (north) then back down toward grindavik (south), then way passed first northern eruption (north)… so, if it continued this pattern, it may go (way) towards the south again which would be grindavik or ocean… just noting patterns..

[@GI_D204]

True story, it is sad to say but the whole of Grindavik will be destroyed on some point, the question is rather when then if. I like this analysis a lot, good work thank you! PS: I don't know why, but it seems youtube swallowed some of my comment, so here is an alternative version.

[@Suzieq5446]

Just Icelandic did a thermal drone scan of Grindavik that shows hot spots.

[@OpaSpielt]

What's your opinion about the amount of lava that is being erupted in the next fissure event? Somewhere, I saw some figures about the amount of lava that erupted during the last few events. It showed that the amount of lava has increased with every new eruption that took place. Additionally, the nice graphics of Mr. Bruce Garner shows that the uplift was also increasing before each of the last eruptions. His forecast for the next eruption is around Christmas or New Year, again coming with an increased amount of uplifting beforehand. So, am I right when I expect that the next fissure event will erupt even more lava than the last one did? And am I right when I think that the longer we have to wait for a new eruption, the more lava will be erupted? Let's say an eruption in the beginning of January will erupt more lava than if the event would start in mid-December. Thank you again for another interesting and wonderful video Have a nice day 👋🏻👴🏼

[@maumoondoggie]

If the height gets to the same point as the August eruption then the date would be around 25th November and I’d expect the volume to be fairly similar as the last one. If the increase in height continues on the trend of the last three eruptions and we see something around Christmas to New Year then I’d expect an increase in volume of the new eruption.

[@MichaelStone-ej9su]

Great update

[@almac4067]

Thanks Professor! What would you think of a hypothesis that tectonic extensional stresses will drive the eruption further northward over time?

[@flambe]

I would love to see a collaboration between you and GH. You're both very knowledgeable (as to be expected since you're both professionals in this field) and I think it would be really interesting to see you bouncing off of each other and also help clarify some of the things brought up here. Plus you both cover a lot of similar topics beides volcanology which I imagine a lot of people would be interested in hearing about.

[@shawnwillsey]

We are discussing him coming on my channel for an interview/discussion.

[@flambe]

@shawnwillsey thank you for the update, I hope it goes ahead!

[@gabbyn978]

Regarding the Svartsengi GPS data: I have the feeling that hidden in the slope there are kinks at a distance of about ten days, as if the influx was pulsating slowly. As far as I can remember, this didn't happen before, which means the magma deposit _might_ have some surprise for us. Emphasis on might, I am a layperson after all.

[@AlohaChips]

Thanks for addressing that video, I thought they were generally well regarded for such coverage and I wasn't sure what to make of such extreme prediction. Of course if I lived there I probably would have taken a buy out option already, so the question would still be more academic and in concern for the people remaining. We'll see what happens I suppose. Well regarded academics disagreeing is not exactly an unheard of thing :)

[@stefanschneider3681]

It looks just by watching you put one eruption after the other on the map like the area covered by the eruptions increases every time. Does that correlate with the data?

[@DALKINION]

Yeah, I'm not so sure that other Chanel you're very likely alluding to was trying to be overly dramatic. He isn't known to be sensational in general with his videos. If anything i think his deductive reasoning has some validity to it in terms of a very real and potentially devastating outcome. That cannot be disregarded.

[@douglashanlon1975]

Are there topographic maps of the area available?

[@gerrycornelissen6529]

"So i can talk with my hands......"great!

[@StevenStyczinski-sy8cj]

Thank you Shawn and Bruce, you make learning fun. I hope Iceland is stocking up for the main highway being cut off for a week or so! Good luck for their New Year’s fireworks display.

[@jansutton2717]

Thanks!

[@shawnwillsey]

Thank you

[@pst_uk]

I was wondering if there is (albeit low probabilty) that an eruption could happen closer to the Blue Lagoon, assuming hte link to the dike is bocked/restricted by cooling magma could the magma find it's way up directly from the storage area to the surface via the shortest path?

[@michaelmckeag960]

Curious to know what video had inspired this analysis of scenarios in order of likelihood, a brief search confirmed my suspicion; a channel I quit watching some time ago in disappointment.

[@goldreverre]

Given the last eruption was the most extensive and the quickest to tail off, with each eruption progressively more acute, i would assume the fissure pathway is now so wide that system pressure becomes less of a factor in delaying an eruption. If that is true, one would expect successive eruptions to reach an asymtote of inflation. Bruce's graph of inflation/eruption over time shows that pattern already. My conclusion is that as it reaches just above the same level of inflation (perhaps around 900mm) I'd expect it ready to go...In other words, around mid December.

[@rnulfschmer7537]

In which films have I seen a professor going with the kinder scenarios to save the tourist season? I agree though that the prob that it won't hit the town is > but that might just be because the town is a small part of the possible area. Strange though that Shawn even mentions tourist season - it can only be planting seeds of doubt in his reading of the data. Not doubting his expertise though, and respect his judgements.

[@richzarria]

I was also struck by the tourism defense feeling odd. Have you seen the movie "Don't Look Up"? If not, read a short summary of the premise.

[@poppawolf26]

Aloha from Makaha......

[@Mantolwen]

Aside from January, every single eruption has started from the same point, even if its main eruption focus was elsewhere along the dike - that part of the ground with all the steam emerging. I expect it will continue to erupt at that point for the next eruptions, although of course there is a small chance it could erupt somewhere else.

[@nigels.6051]

"I don't think it is helpful to the Icelandic people who are so reliant on tourism" - Shawn is clearly saying that Tim from GH has said something unacceptable, and has harmed the Icelandic tourism industry. A disagreement amongst "experts" is expected, everyone will have their own opinion on what is going to happen during the next eruption, due to lack of proof, but it is not normal for scientific "experts" to attack others with claims over harming tourism when we are discussing a life threatening natural event, disagree Yes, but you have to accept that others will have different views. Tourism should not be a reason to fail to give a warning when there is a clear danger to life, even if the risk is fairly small, and everyone knows not to trust just one expert, they almost never agree. I suspect the effect on tourism for GH viewers is actually positive anyway! I was wondering who is the most "expert"? The title "professor" goes a long way, except Shawn is a USA professor, which doesn't carry the same "expert" status as an Icelandic professor, or anything close to it. Tim is a professional geologist with a fair amount of experience. Hard to say who is most qualified, I'll go with Tim, I think he has more relevant knowledge. We can wait and see what actually happens, but Tim did not say that there would be an eruption in Grindavik, only that there is a 60% chance of the lava reaching the sea, only if the lava flows south, which is quite likely, so that puts the chances down below 60%. Personally I think he has underestimated the risk, and I also think that there is a significant risk of lava going over the barriers and either into Grindavik, or into the power plant, a risk which Tim appears to have dismissed. I'll wait for Professor Þórðarson to comment, he is not always right, but he does know how to get the relevant message out, and he is a proper Professor with the qualifications and experience to match. He has, in the past, warned of the gas risk from the lava reaching the sea, but also made it clear that he doesn't expect lava to come up under Grindavik, giving his reasons. Nobody got it right last time, nobody predicted the fissure extending northwards after the initial eruption with a new earthquake swarm, a fissure length of 4Km and lava covering an area of 16 km2 - enough to bury Grindavik.

[@richzarria]

THIS

[@TheMrMarkW]

As an Oceanography / Natural Sciences graduate from years ago, I did some geology as part of my degree but Volcanism has always been an interest and I’ve followed your awesome videos for a while. Thank you for your amazing work & I wished I had had a geology professor as erudite as you are. I do have a question that has been sort of playing on my mind for a while but when you showed your rough drawing of the intrusion & dike, it prompted me to ask - and that is - couldn’t we use geophysics & ground penetrating radar along with using the data from ground movements post earthquake aligned with the GPS data & interferogram data to create a more detailed view of what the subsurface lava movement, dike, cill & faulting looks like?

[@nigels.6051]

Ground penetrating radar is used for 4 meter depth, not 4Km depth, the sill containing the upper magma reservoir is down at 4Km depth, and it is less than a meter in thickness, so pretty hard to see using any method. We can see where it is pretty accurately using the satellite interferogram. the faults can be seen fairly accurately using the historical 3D earthquake maps, I'm not sure that we are missing much other than resolution.

[@claudlane]

Question !? As time and data draw closer to event / eruption , will they turn the live cams on ? With the August eeruption , it was exciting to watch things ramp up in real time , burm workers leave and then BOOM!