Imagining the Unimaginable: War with China

Happening now: American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Dr. Zack Cooper and Defense Priorities director for Asia engagement Dr. Lyle Goldstein on stage at East Meets West in conversation with FP national security and intelligence reporter Amy Mackinnon on war with China. See today's full agenda: foreignpolicy.com/events/east...
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[@DucaTech]

Through 2500 years of Chinese dynastic history, never once did China invaded Japan nor PH, whereas the US colonized PH from 1898 - 1946, and Japan has been a client state of the US since WWII. There's some serious paradox in the argument that China will invade Japan or the PH.

[@thesheepthemightythecrazy]

It is part of manufacturing consent. Got to demonize your "enemies". Even if war did start, it would be China's fault. US is really good at PR and propaganda.

[@standardengineer]

lol what? China during the Yuan dynasty tried to invade Japan twice, once in 1274 and again in 1281. And funny how you fail to mention how China throughout its history has invaded neighboring countries many times. It's also funny how PH and JP are totally autonomous today yet Tibet and Xinjiang, regions that were invaded by China during those 2500 years, are subjugated today.

[@gee8883]

​@@standardengineerYuan is mongolic empire.

[@standardengineer]

@@gee8883 "China claims 5000 years of history except for those pesky periods of carnage that are inconvenient to its narrative" 🙄

[@standardengineer]

​@@HC-sb6iv The original statement: "Through 2500 years of Chinese dynastic history, never once did China invaded Japan nor PH". Now explain to me how bringing up a relevant dynasty during that 2500 years is somehow cherry picking.

[@davidhu3803]

It is so ironic to talking about Chin invasion of Japan and Philippines. It was Japanese who invaded China and Philippines, and Americans and Japanese are/were colonial master of Philippines, and Americans are colonial master of Japan.

[@bohsu182]

They just want to cause a panic...socalled alliance is a joke to US, once the war starts...they escape as fast as they can...just like what they did in Afghan

[@qingzhou9983]

Mr Zack does not even know the huge difference between Taiwan vs Japan and Philippines to PRC, but dare to comment on this most dangerous issue. Taiwan is an unfinished Chinese Civil War since 1949: PRC vs ROC. If forced, PRC is willing to go to nuclear war with US for it. The disputes with Japan or Philippines are normal border problems between neighbors countries. So PRC has no plan to invade either Japan or Philippines beyond the disputing area. Involving in war for Taiwan is like Vietnam War to US, only much worse because PRC is much stronger than North Vietnam. Dr Lyle Goldstein is basically correct. But even him did not realize The Taiwan Independence movement is forcing PRC’s hand. The war is coming and PRC is actively preparing it with only less than 2% of its GDP on military.

[@user-dq4lk9es8v]

美國參戰，對14億中國人來看，統一戰爭將會變成衛國戰爭，美國本土也將是戰場

[@GIZMO3380]

😂😂😂 Nothing to discuss on Taiwan. It is part of China and nothing to discuss 😂😂😂😂

[@user-dq4lk9es8v]

台灣至今的憲法還是跟中國大陸同一個國家，這些人在講台灣時，從來不講台灣的憲法！！

[@user-my2bc8cs4d]

​​@@user-dq4lk9es8v事实台湾就是一个棋子。美国人不要你觉得，他们要他们觉得

[@pmungze108]

Zack, I would push back on your assertion that people are worried about China's behavior, globally -- I think those people you're referring to are only those from the global north + a smattering of US's client states in Asia, which puts those people in the minority in terms of numbers. I would look at the polls again, and identify what the actual numbers are regarding global sentiment toward US behavior as it continues its warring path aimed at hanging on to global dominance. By comparison, I believe the China sentiment is more celebratory than worry.

[@IHZALewis]

Thank you so much. This the fact that reflects the ignorance of the American population. Every single major military conflict in the world involves America and its stooges. Name a single place where China has been or is stoking the embers of war?

[@ThePreityEffect]

Is isn't only the Global north that has an issue with China. Most countries in the Global south, especially the large ones hate them too. They are not liked or trusted by anyone other than a few client states. China is a rogue state and a problem.

[@stubbytoad4927]

Totally agree.

[@schmitgangsta]

I would disagree. The “smattering” of US client states includes every country in East Asia besides North Korea. They all have genuine grievances aside from US influence. Every country bordering the South China Sea is getting increasingly fed up with China’s territorial claims and aggression, for good reason. India and China competing for dominance in Asia and the Indian Ocean and have seen more frequent deadly border clashes. African countries are quick to accept Chinese money for infrastructure, but resentment is slowly building due to China bringing in their own labor force. At the moment though, African countries still look favorably on China. Russia, while for the time being dependent on China, still remembers the war they fought not so long ago and has always been competing to be the senior partner. At present, China is investing in and buying up a lot of Siberia, and Chinese are immigrating en masse to the region, which is hurting Russian legitimacy in the region. That relationship could go south. You are right that most of the global south still looks favorably on China. But with the majority of Indians having an unfavorable view, most of the world is in fact worried about China’s behavior.

[@pmungze108]

Those points you've brought up do exist in Western media, and a few have nuggets of truth beyond their exaggeration and propagandist intent. I would say your strongest argument is India. But as they are hustling both sides of the BRICS/G7 divide at the moment, their sentiment toward China has been moderated, roughly at 40-45% favorable last time I checked, which is not overwhelmingly bad, or enough to tip the needle. China is undeniably winning more hearts and minds globally, especially in relation to US behavior .

[@stubbytoad4927]

Maybe there should be a panellist that can present an argument not solely from an American point of view. We in south east Asia don’t believe China will invade any of our countries in the region. If only American stop poking at china here, I’m sure we can settle the South China Sea issue peacefully while the whole region can prosper trading with China and the rest of the world. Should a conflict starts, off course you’re going to loose many young Americans. You are going to fight at somebody’s doorstep. Why? I don’t think any of the 4 reasons presented is correct. I urge you guys to visit and see the real china. They (and for that matter the Russians) don’t see an American as an enemy. You’ll be welcomed. It’s your government’s policies that is the problem. This world CAN live in peace.

[@olderchin1558]

Well said. As another ASEAN citizen.

[@peteryoung8541]

In response to the last question of why doesn't logic apply to Taiwan? Answer is simple Taiwan is part of Chinese territory and the Chinese Civil War hasn't really ended. He should know this but if he does not then he should be ashamed of himself. As well if you don't like the PRC's position in regards to the South China Seas and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island he should check Taiwan's stance on the same issues.

[@ez3422]

Do you really believe these guys are too fool to know the history? They don’t tell you their real intention is to block China in the so called first chain. Japan, Taiwan and Philippines are tools used by them to block China or even Russia.

[@joem0088]

The US doesn't even dare to make war with Iran never mind China. The fleet does not dare enter the Persian Gulf. And it certainly does not want to support a war in the Ukraine, Israel/Iran/Syria, and China at the same time. War war war when the country has debt debt debts. This is not policy. This is craziness. Missing something between the ears.

[@ex0duzz]

Yep. Even in the Vietnam war, USA already did not dare step one foot into North Vietnam for the whole war out of fear of Chinese intervention just like in Korean war. And that was in the 60-70s when China was still super weak and poor, technologically irrelevant. Today china is 100x stronger and more advanced technologically and in terms of manufacturing power.

[@alwynlvv5429]

I am not sure Dr. Zack understanding about Taiwan issue, we can defend Japan and Phonelines because they are UN recognized independent countries! Taiwan is part of China may be on paper, UN doesn't recognize Taiwan as a country.

[@inconvenientTruther]

The Zach guys is just mainstream media talking point

[@harriemeeuwis978]

It's an unprecedented challenge for US dominance. Never since their independence battles have they had such a strong opponent. It's hard to imagine any viable strategy except possibly A.I. dominance in which the US would remain the dominant power in Asia. China has drawn its red line over Taiwan and the US cannot handle that. They're not used to equal or even stronger powers. But that's how history works. Great powers rise and decline.

[@HistMirror]

Zack: "we can fight and defend Japan. why can't we also protect Taiwan in the same way"; If Zack can't tell the difference between Japan and Taiwan in relation to mainland China, Zack needs to find a different job

[@joemartin6202]

Suddenly the need to PROTECT Taiwan.....what about GAZA?.....Protecting Taiwan is BS .....but keep on doing that as China will not invade Taiwan - what then?....what will the next excuse be?......All the West knows is WAR WAR WAR -- remember, thinking of the old OPIUM WARS, is a pipe dream....go home and invade some other 3rd world country that can't fight back

[@standardengineer]

His point is obviously that if China can take Taiwan, then they can just as easily take the Ryukyu islands. From there they can try to move on the main islands.

[@HistMirror]

@@standardengineer so you don't understand the difference either

[@standardengineer]

@@HistMirror How about you stop playing "guess what I'm thinking" and make an actual point.

[@accountantthe3394]

​@@standardengineerIt's plenty obvious for those who can read a map, much like middle school kids would. No strategic depth, bad weather, right at the doorstep of mainland China, no manufacturing capacity, no quantity in their armed forces, no logistical/replenishment point to offer in taiwan. That's not even mentioning how compromised their armed forces are with CCP synpathisers. Wouldn't want to be in the frontline mate

[@danstenis660]

If Americans actually find this video informative and flawless, it would really reveal the unbelievable primary grade school level of intelligence that America is really at.

[@peaceleader7315]

I know right it is a military 🪖 industries promotional video.. 😂

[@mistman5640]

Zack offers zero substance. Just regurgitating PC talking points. Totally dodging the whole reassurance question.

[@allowedme]

@mistman5640 But he made sense and the most logical. Unless you love the devil, war and destruction are what you are seeking?

[@mistman5640]

@@allowedme how is he more logical than Lyle?

[@luosuo9929]

@@allowedme He's the one trying to bring you the devil, war and destruction. As soon as US steps back, Taiwanese people would be able to enjoy peace again and have no need to worry for war. China had no intention to fight a war on Taiwan until the US and its puppets on the island started to play games few years ago.

[@ex0duzz]

Because they are PC, pro US talking points and doesn't make the US look as weak and as bad as they are in reality.. heh

[@igolfer]

Which trade is more important? The US-China trade totals $700 billion in 2022 while the US-Taiwan trade is $160 billion. Talk about democracy is so cheap. Whenever they hear someone talks about how much they care about democracy or human rights, they really mean that they only care about their own interests. At least Trump or John Meresheimer proudly and openly talk about American hegemony as a God given privilege.

[@user-yw4rx6kb3r]

Yes. These people lack common sense but are supposed to be the brightest.

[@olderchin1558]

The BS is so glaring but US voters swallow them enthusiastically.

[@Gopherminator]

They forgot Russia and North Korea will join once Japan and South Korea get involved.

[@IHZALewis]

The US has started many wars in the last one hundred years, but they have never tried to invade a county that was their equal. At the time America invaded and occupied these countries, none of them was its equal. Among the many countries, there are Philippines, Japan, Korea, China, Laos, Cambodia, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Haiti, Santo Domingo, Cuba, Somalia, Grenda and many other Latin America and Caribbean countries.

[@ed1003]

No right! American public and politicians did not learn any lessons from Korean wars 70 years ago!

[@alwynlvv5429]

The fact is that US is changing the status of quo in Taiwan strait gradually together with its allies in Europe. They are sending more government officials to Taiwan and invite Taiwan officials to their countries. You don't think Chinese government is stupid and cannot see what is happening.

[@same.6409]

the conversation should end after the first 4 minutes

[@hermanhsu5994]

Taiwan is core interest of China as one, the scenario of invading Japan or Philipen is absurd, for what to make the same mistakes as the West colonized the others?

[@SW-fy8pq]

The liar and warmonger United Snakes is great in fabricating lies.

[@IHZALewis]

Knowing that China has not done this type ignorance for centuries.

[@PseudoProphet]

China is doing that right now in South China Sea and and wants to do it in many other couy including Russia. 😅😂😂

[@qingzhou9983]

@@PseudoProphet You are confused. China, ROC in 1945 after WW II and PRC now, already claimed South China Sea and Taiwan with US Navy support. China never claimed Japan or Philippines. So PRC invading Japan or Philippines are ridiculous. Taiwan is part of China. So PRC is willing to go to nuke war with US to recover it. The question is whether US is willing to go to Nuke War with PRC for Taiwan.

[@keith6371]

@@PseudoProphetI will give u some free education so you don’t go around embarrassing yourself. Chinese claim was laid down by President Sun at the end of Qing dynasty. If you recall your history book correctly, majority of ASEAN countries, especially Philippine, wasn’t even a country back then. This policy was maintained by Republic of China, now PRC. It wasn’t a new thing, it has always been this way. Who do you think gave ROC navy the necessary naval ship to maintain such a claim back then? It was US.

[@ddream777]

Look at the comments. The people on stage is really laughable.

[@danielhu7004]

Imagine the unimaginable war with China today by looking at the unthinkable Korean War when the half-starving Chinese soldiers entered the war by crossing the Yalu River and ended it a half Korea away at the 38th parallel line. Any other scenarios must be bordering on the peripherals of child's play.

[@PeterSzeto-es6em]

What a bunch of warmongers!!!

[@howardhan2101]

Zach, you don’t understand anything at all, bla bla bla only

[@ex0duzz]

Listen to Lyle, the other speakers can be skipped/ignored. Lyle actually knows what he's talking about and isn't afraid to tell the cold hard brutal truths or care about being PC or worry about being cancelled for not being a US patriot or be lying and shill in order to increase the US military budget..

[@foreverforty1]

GROWN UP TALKING AND PLAYING WAR GAME. WHAT A SHAME! Risking other people's life and livelihood. GO TAKE YOUR FAMILY FOR A WALK IN THE PARK AND ENJOY THE PEACE.

[@TG-nx7xe]

military professionals are always more serious about their words than those politicians.

[@whitemoon5752]

This is one of the best cool headed logical panelist.

[@flyingpig3297]

Which alliance in Asia can help America to deter？Japan? It fears Russia. S Korea? It fears N Korea. SE Asia?

[@rfreund719]

We are playing checkers and they are playing chess.

[@deanzaZZR]

Has Zach ever read the 1972 Shanghai Communique? "The US side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position."

[@dyrectory_com]

US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Greenland what do all these countries have in common.... 🦉

[@ongsienhien1]

Has someone asked the Taiwanese was they want? They also see was the USA say about Oekraïne. Because it cost no Americans lives, its a great war. And do you know that most Taiwanese has family on the mainland China. And more than fifty percent of ther trade is with mainland China? They do not want a war. And in the next election they will choose for the status quo.

[@pikachus5m166]

American Enterprise Institute?, you mean the de facto US Embassy in Taiwan?.

[@aachoocrony5754]

Should discuss the growing list of endless options via sanctions, proxies they have at their disposal before the endless economic options they are using. What tops it off and the only thing is legitimacy, which we are handing to them in spades at a record pace. It's as if you are working for them. 🤔

[@testphone8379]

One is a military man and the other is a politician.

[@StewartChaimson]

It would be interesting to know if Trump would claim he could end a war over Taiwan, like the one in Ukraine, in one day. Then we could call him Capitulation Don.

[@hyuxion]

It is in America’s best interest to help Taiwan negotiate a permanent solution with China, the status quo is not sustainable, the power has shifted to China.

[@borisreljanovic7292]

Lyle Goldstein is such a dork. The fact that the doesn"t work anymore on the US naval colleague tells you all what you need to know. Stop telling what are Navy can do and stop saying what it actually can do.

[@ex0duzz]

Dr. Zack Cooper is asking what's the difference and why can't they defend Taiwan like they do Philippines or Japan? 1. Taiwan is recognized as a part of china, by USA, Japan, pH, UN, the whole world basically. 2. USA already has military bases in Japan and Philippines and troops on them. They are also treaty allies. Taiwan is not. What is Dr. Zack Cooper trying to say? That usa should recognize Taiwan as a country, sign a defense treaty, open military bases and put 50,000 troops or more on the island? Put missile defense, offensive missiles on Taiwan like USA has in Japan and Philippines? Does he think china is going to sit back and allow even one of those things to happen? Will that make Taiwan safer and defensible, or will that actually really start a war that Dr. Zack Cooper claims he is against and wants to deter? That will not deter China, it will in fact force China into attacking Taiwan and taking it by force. Taiwan is an existential and historical and emotional issue for China, the most sensitive red line issue that China can never back down from. It is similar to North Korea. China will never allow us troops on the island, even more then NK which isn't even part of China, yet China committed to fighting Korean war, even when they had no nukes, no air force, no navy, no technology, no economy. Usa could not even beat china back then in korea, but they think they will today? 3. Since Taiwan is recognized as a part of China under international law, and by USA, Japan, Philippines, if USA attacks China during a civil war, under international law, that would be the same as USA being the aggressor and attacking China for no reason. It is the same as usa funding and arming a separatist group in Russia, and then when Russia attacks to defend its sovereignty, USA attacks Russia proper to protect their separatist group that is not recognized by anyone or UN or even usa itself. USA would be the aggressor and be doing an illegal act under international law. 4. Does Dr. Zack Cooper think China wants to invade Philippines or Japan? Both right now, or if they actually controlled Taiwan and had troops on them? That is crazy talk. China only has small territorial disputes with Japan(that small insignificant island with a few goats on it) and Philippines, over some small insignificant islands(or even not an island, but some reefs) like Lyle said. They are mainly fishing disputes, and over some rusty ship that is not even an island and was intentionally shipwrecked to enhance Philippines claims over some reefs just to increase their EEZ which has already been ruled against by Philippines own case which they brought to the court of arbitration. Chinas actions and island building in SCS is mainly to defend against USA containment in the FIC. every action has a reaction, And that is China's reaction to USAs aggressive containment and usas strategy to divide and contain china, and to turn Taiwan separatists(loser of civil war) into cannon fodder to be used against China. It is the same as Ukraine and USA supporting everyone who's against their adversaries everywhere in the world. It's not about defending Taiwan. On the first day that war starts, Taiwan will be completely flattened by short and medium range missiles, by MLRS like himars from Chinese mainland. By the entirety of Chinese air force and navy missiles, by the entirety of Chinese rocket force. There is no defending Taiwan as we know it. It will be a fight over the land, since everything on the land will be destroyed. TSMC will be destroyed with one missile. Then what? USA will attack China and start ww3 nuclear war to get revenge over an already destroyed useless island 200km from Chinese mainland? China can cover the whole of Taiwan with S400 and equivalent anti air systems on the mainland. Then they also have thousands of planes that don't need aerial refuelling, their whole navy which is larger than US navy will also be there, and they will all be under the umbrella of China's A2AD umbrella, which includes land based anti ship missiles with ranges up to 2500km and beyond. USA has no way to counter this. To be a fair fight, USA would have to relocate the entirety of its military and industry to Japan and Philippines, put all its missiles and everything there. This isn't even including Russia and NK and Pakistan and Iran and the whole global south which will side with China since like i said, Taiwan is recognized as part of China and the world will see usa as the aggressor. Can usa still keep it's global commitments if this happens? No. Even if they put everything into western Pacific theater, it would still be a tough fight and usa would lose everything and Taiwan, Japan, SK, would all be destroyed even if USA did win. Taiwan is not worth such a price and risking nuclear MAD also. Remember, Taiwan is considered as part of China, and if usa attacked China, China will no doubt inflict the same level of damage back to USA. Probably Guam or more likely Hawaii. Island for island. 4. Does Dr. Zack Cooper think china even wants to take Taiwan by force at all, or does he think they want peaceful unification? Is Dr. Zack Cooper against even peaceful unification? Because it sounds like he is. he claims that usa needs Taiwan to contain China inside first island chain(FIC) and to spy and monitor all China's movements in and out of FIC. So if China pressures Taiwan into peaceful unification, will Cooper do everything possible to stop it? Including doing a coup, or using force against Taiwan and starting a war to stop China from taking and controlling Taiwan? This is pure containment of China when China doesn't even see USA as an enemy, or Japan, or Philippines. There is no need to deter China from attacking Japan or Philippines. It is absurd. China only wants to unify it's country, which is only Taiwan. It only wants to defend itself and it's sovereignty and territory. There is zero need to go to war vs nuclear superpower and start ww3. If USA had the means, it should have started with defending Ukraine, since that actually happened and is easier to defend and Russia is far weaker(not including nukes) than China. Or it should have attacked and destroyed China back in Korean war, or Vietnam war. Yet usa never even dared to step one foot into North Vietnam during the whole Vietnam war, out of fear of Chinese intervention just like in the Korean war. Yet you're trying to argue that usa will have the balls or will to go to potential total nuclear war China? Unlike korea, China will never relent or settle for anything less than victory when it comes to taiwan. It's same as Ukraine doesn't want to settle with Russia and wants all its land back, but China can actually do it.

[@standardengineer]

The Philippines and Japan territorial disputes are far more than just "some little islands". China has made outrageous claims over their respective EEZs (literally right up to Japan's territorial waters at points in the Ryukyu island chain) and has been ramping up their aggressiveness on asserting those claims. And you got the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling completely wrong. It ruled that China's 9 dash line is invalid and China must stop interfering with the Philippines lawful rights in their own EEZ. By ignoring that ruling, China has shown that it abides by "might makes right" and will ignore its obligations under treaties it signs. As for your assessment on a war over Taiwan, it cannot be taken seriously. You use tropes from Chinese nationalist circles, such as "China has more ships". In reality, the US has far more tonnage and far more VLS cells. You rely on several other common tropes that all gloss over the fact that the US military has been heavily changing its arms acquisitions and Indo-Pacific strategy to directly counter China. I'm not even saying the US will win the fight, but your assessment is just too entirely one sided. Also, LMAO at Russia, NK, Pakistan, and Iran getting involved. They have zero to gain from getting directly involved in a war over Taiwan. Like the Global South, they will continue to trade with China. Their trade with China will be heavily reduced due to the overall war and the US blockading China's maritime trade routes. You should also consider that the US trade routes outside of SEA will be practically unaffected. Finally, if China attacks Hawaii, it can expect a full on war that won't stop. The world saw what happened when Pearl Harbor was attacked. And the would just saw the US get into a 20 year war over 9/11. Imagine what happens when the headlines read "Hawaii suffers Pearl Harbor 2!".

[@Mr.barba97]

Maybe this time the USA really needs his Allies. Not like in Iraq but they really necessitate some help.

[@ewtwetrwerwteet]

Another talk fest. The problem with the world is we sit around having "conversations" and no solutions

[@IHZALewis]

Here are a number of simple solutions: keep America out of other nations and fix the problems that are destroying the lives of millions of citizens. Stop the police from killing black people every day. People die in their homes because they cannot access the Heathcare system. There are more homeless people in America than in any other so-called developed countries. Stop the daily mass shootings that are killing children in primary schools and in the supermarket. Stop starting proxy-wars around the world. Here is one thing that America can do right now to improve the lives of its citizens. There are 45 million black people in America, and it has imprisoned more than a million of them. Here is the irony. The African continent has a population of more than 1.3 billion people. And yet, there are few black people in the prisons of all of those countries combined than the number o f black people in America. obviously

[@aachoocrony5754]

To bolster deterrence...but bolster excuses for Russia and China, the stronger foe. 😭 What happened to your simple math? Too many forums?

[@melsaloj5778]

How devastated would Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Philippines would be?

[@michaelkeppler6593]

Pompous comment on not defending shoals in the Philippines and Japan by Dr. Goldstein. It's not about defending sand bars and islands with sheep. It's about mineral rights, fishing rights, geo-strategic trade issues, not to mention that it would replace the existing rights afforded to all nations, regardless of their military/economic power with one based exclusively on the "might makes right" doctrine espoused by the likes of China and Russia.

[@Liboch]

I thought that is the doctrine of the US, exclusively... 😂

[@NorCalMoDo]

Defending an island (Diaoyu Island) that belongs to China... The US granted Japan interim management of the island after WII for a reason... BUT, It is not theirs to keep. In this game of geopolitics, the US is shameless. Its all about national interests (not security).

[@user-yw4rx6kb3r]

Might makes right.....yes Michelle you are right. That's exactly a US doctrine.

[@alexlazar4738]

@@NorCalMoDo The Diaoyu islands were taken by Japan after the treaty od Shimonoseki under pretext that they are part of Tawan, So, if Japan claims them today they might as well claim Taiwan.

[@4KSnSLifestyle]

Taking China with two billion people as an enemy is pure madness.

[@jackma1548]

USA must support Ukraine to fight proxies wars with Russia to the end, and US must not abandon Ukraine just like US abandon Afghanistan and South Vietnam government before. and US must support Ukraine to rebuild economy and infrastructure.

[@Bhorangzen2040]

Lyle understands military and war but he lacks the deep understanding of the importance of Taiwan as a strategic importance for the US’s hegemony in the pacific. Once you give away a “goat island” to the CCP then CCP will smell the blood and see the crack in the alliance. That’s the beginning of the end of the US dominance in the pacific. With Taiwan in CCP control and the South China Sea or the west Philippine Sea under CCP, Japan and South Korea will gradually fall under the control of the CCP. Lyle needs to understand the CCP more in-depth. I hope the next US administration is not filled with people like Lyle.

[@jameschen2081]

Smell the blood for what? Conquering Japan and Filipinos? Only America did that, China don’t have that genes yet even God gives them the brain

[@IHZALewis]

But you do not know what you saying. Taiwan only became a question for American in recent years. The United Nations and all but a few tiny country under American thumb regard Taiwan as anything but Chinese. You obviously believe that America has the right to tell every other country what they can do and how they can do it. I do not know how intelligent you are, but it may provide some benefit if you were study the America history from its inception. It was started as white supremacist state and nothing has change over the centuries. If you do not believe me, name two countries that China has invaded and colonized and I will name you 100 that America have invaded, occupied and killed millions of people. As much as America tries to hide its sordid role in the world, the record is there for anyone to learn.

[@user-rh7wk9dj9b]

Interestingly, you should know better that Taiwan is only a small part of America's global interests, but it is a core interest of China. It is not worth the loss for the United States to have a showdown with China on the Taiwan issue,not to mention the Philippines, a peripheral country that is dispensable.

[@qingzhou9983]

You are wrong. The losing of War about Taiwan with PRC will surely ends US domination in Asia. What you and Zack do not understand is the FACT PRC is willing to fight the Nuclear War with US if needed for Taiwan, because Taiwan to China is like Hawaii to US. But PRC would not invade Japan or Philippines, because they are never part of China so Chinese People will not support the war. So Lyle is right, US could win over China about Taiwan. But it could defend Japan and Philippines easily. That is where US should and could build its deterrence.

[@tonysu8860]

Anyone and everyone who references the CSIS wargame conducted sometime approx end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023 instantly loses all creditability in my eyes because - The US side isn't consistent with American war doctrine in any way I know of - No details on the wargame scenarios seem to have been released, only broad summaries of battleplans and results - The wargames seem to assume the US would throw all its forces in the cauldron to meet China's forces toe to toe and eye to eye - There seems to be an assumption that Taiwan's own forces and American allies South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and any other forces in the region are practically non-existent - Chinese forces and military hardware have a reliability level somewhere approaching the US In other words, despite the paucity of reliable details released about the exercise, enough has been released into the public realm to conclude the effort was unrealistic and heavily biased in favor of those who might want to sound an alarm about an impending Chinese military threat to US forces in the region. I wouldn't wouldn't want to say that there is no threat but a reasonable, realistic evaluation of Chinese military capability to perform an attack is different than China's capability to successfully invade imminently, short term and long term are slim to none no matter the time frame. I also highly dispute the CSIS conclusion of US military casualties because the US military just isn't so stupid as to waste American lives and assets recklessly as depicted by CSIS. If there is to be a Chinese-American military war where very little is held back (only nuclear weapons), I do not see the US losing aircraft carriers. I do not see the US losing dozens of ships and dozens of aircraft. I do see everything that even mostly appears like a military asset on the Chinese mainland within 500 miles of Taiwan and possibly South Korea and the Philippines utterly decimated by strategic bombing by the end of the first week or two of hostilities,, and only after that happens then the aircraft carriers would move in closer to the first island chain. But for those first 2 weeks, all shipping to China would be shut off through the Indian Ocean and through the Arctic. If China's government is still standing by the end of the first month, at the least China will be running low on food and fuel, supplied only with whatever can be transported by land through Russia. Only a trickle of China's needs can be transported through Russia and Mongolia, though. There is little transportation infrastructure and mountains are significant obstacles. China will have problems feeding and caring for its population which is about 1/4 of all humanity without any shipping. It would be surprising if China's CCP would still be standing after the first month and even more improbable after the second month. I highly doubt that China would open hostilities against the USA or allies unless it was confident of a quick knockout and minimal or zero damage to itself.

[@user-dq4lk9es8v]

你忽略了現在是洲際導彈時代，中國完全可以打擊美國本土，包括核武器

[@olderchin1558]

Dude. You must have missed the last two decades of China's development. Just go look up China space program and it's launch success rate compared to NASA. China space capsule take 10 hours from launch to dock, SpaceX needs 2 days. That is how reliable China's tech is. Go read the latest Pentagon or Rand report on the PLA. BTW DJI is a Chinese company and Huawei is the most advanced telecommunication company in the world. Add these together, makes for advanced autonomous attack drones in the millions. I think CSIS underestimated the PLA tech and strength in the war game simulation.

[@miaorenfeng1]

You're more optimistic than MacArthur.😂

[@hengeechua3705]

You Americans, let a Singaporean Chinese like me warn you. China is still a China after 5000 years while all other empires from ancient to recent ones like Roman, Ottoman, Persian, British, and what have you, had all either totally disappeared from this planet earth or they had disintegrated into different nations. There must some good reasons for that. Agreed China also had her vulnerable period but which country did not. But just let me give you Americans one point because I don’t have time to write too many. With the advent of mass telecommunition technology with Internet now, the Central Government of China can now mobilise the whole country to defend or counter attack any enemy in just hours. Don’t ever under estimate the Chinese military. So far, throughout history, it might have lost some battles but never a war even when China was at its weakest and poorest period. That is why China is still a China today.