India Today Conclave 2024: Arvind Subramanian & Shamika Ravi On India’s Resilience & Global Turmoil

Speaking at the 21st edition of the India Today Conclave 2024 in New Delhi, Arvind Subramanian said, "I can't understand the latest GDP numbers, they are mystifying, and don't add up. For example, the implied inflation numbers given by the government are between 1-1.5%, but the actual inflation is around 3-5%."
Speaking at the India Today Conclave, Shamika Ravi, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, on Friday said that growth and economic activity at ground level has increased.
The India Today Conclave - India's premier thought forum - is entering its 21st year. Over the next two days, Conclave 2024 will bring together visionaries, leaders, and luminaries from across the globe under one roof to delve into the essence of 'Brand Bharat: An Assertive Nation in an Uncertain World'. Spanning over two decades, the conclave has established itself as a premier forum for dissecting the complexities of our times, stimulating intellectual debates, and seeding the ideas that shape our world.
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[@kvsshankar1723]

Nice discussion! Shamika is superb! Amazing clarity of thought and blunt in a sophisticated way to refute ‘thin air’ worries by Arvind!!

[@imranhussainfca]

Mind blogging presentation by Shamika

[@kunjandesai4341]

May be Arvind Subramanian wasn't able to deliver when he was in the office, it looks like he is not happy at all of GDP numbers..😂😂😂

[@gopalramanathan7062]

He’s pretty desperate to put down a rising Bharat 🇮🇳

[@rohinipathak9184]

Dr. Shamika is good speaker and clarity on her subject

[@sarojininair50]

What an excellent discussion, thanks to Dr Shamika Ravi.

[@shyamprasad1969]

This man was given a specific job to bring some order on key economic policies and get Rajan to work as per government policy, he failed to have Rajan agree on that. Rajan was always bogged by china effect on global trend and kept rejecting governments request for reducing interest rate. Now this person has lots of gyan

[@Rohitdada7143]

Exactly and avoiding the data and talking I don't want to get into the dry acedamic debate ...but want to give gyan😂

[@RaviNayyar]

I would like to thank Abhijit Iyer-Mitra (Delhi Media Gossip) for telling us on X about the behind the scenes drama allegedly involving the male panellist.

[@jainvandit]

What’s it? I missed it.

[@ytskt]

Could you pls elaborate? Or at least point to the source?

[@Komal_US]

What is it?

[@sid7186]

Arvind Subramanian seems like Yogendra Yadav from Harvard

[@rakshit8570]

Actually he is.

[@anitapadhi325]

i really believe harvard is over-hyped

[@shyamprasad1969]

Rahul should have asked aravind why he wasn’t using such a great skill and wisdom when he was cea

[@shyamprasad1969]

Some times we wonder why they bring people who went into hiding and deserted their job because they couldn’t succeed. Now they have become experts on economy. Just like Rajan who suddenly became an expert after his RBI governorship

[@atulkanagat4034]

Absolutely.

[@avinashchaturvedi6401]

Dr Shamika Ravi's thought process as well as conversations was very apt and relatable and appeared in direction of what is happening on the ground. While Dr. Arvind appeared to be having negative thoughts about India;s growth story, probably a student of or influenced by Raghuram Rajans negativity

[@shyamprasad1969]

Yes Subramaniam is right he never understands economic, he didn’t understand when he was given that job and he doesn’t understand now. Rahul should have asked him is that reason why he opted out of that cea job

[@ytskt]

He appears to be Raghu Rajan clone.

[@mysticwatersoo]

So as per the congis everything good that is happening now such as infrastructure boost, Manufacturing etc was thought of during the upa era but nothing was implemented. So now when a leader has the vision and the courage to make it happen, the congis want 80 % of the credit...

[@gopalramanathan7062]

Congis are utterly desperate 🤣

[@gopalramanathan7062]

Despite dampners like Mr Subramanian who hurries from the comfort of his cushy life in the “mighty” USA to put down India Smt Shamika boldly articulates the facts of the fast emerging new Bharat 🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳

[@deepjha836]

"I DON'T UNDERSTAND "..... it's true for you as mr r rajan policy while he was governor of RBI we don't as Bhartiya, where american float more than 3 trillion to cope with COVID and we didn't and the difference is debt of country gets high in america where our policies allowed us to grow from 22 onwards so it's fine if you and people like you don't understand our growth and development. JaiSriRam JAIHIND VANDEMATRAM

[@Komal_US]

Today only I came across a Bloomberg video where 2 American Financial Analysts were discussing that Foreign investments are so attracted to India now because there is Real GDP Growth, infrastcture has improved, and many other KPIs have improved that what they were in last 7-8 yrs.

[@paishiva3175]

The Prof is totally out of touch with the reality. American economic policy cannot be cut and pasted everywhere. This was proved during Covid. The lady economist was very confident and knew what she was talking unlike the Prof. and fantastically rebutted Profs arguments. I think, India Today hasn’t learnt its lesson from their earlier choice of inviting economists from US to talk about Indian economy and as if IIMs economists are not good enough to dissect what is happening in India economically. Please get out off your colonial mentality and don’t waste your money on US economists to provide solutions for Indian economy.

[@RashmiPrasad-f6h]

Subramanian is just not credible. I would appreciate having someone more analytical and without agenda address accuracy of economic data.

[@ranand089]

very good discussion..we should have debate like this...

[@atuldua875]

Numbers don't add up because you don't want them to add

[@gopalramanathan7062]

👌👍🙏🏼

[@VeeraRaghavan]

Only 5.5 thousand views..?? Arvind is long forgotten as a Eco pundit.

[@rakshit8570]

He is as bad as it comes.

[@shriuutube]

Thanks

[@KobayashiMaru-]

It is always easy when you know what is going to be asked so kudos to Ms Ravi to have had premonition !! Also it goes to show there are two ways to interpret the same set of numbers. One, the way adopted by NSO, and the other accepted world over. The question is where are the jobs Ms Ravi ?

[@Venkata_CV]

Rahul - do not try to become another pappu...when the panel talks, let them finish their statement....after all, we have been given two ears and only one mouth!

[@seenu2412]

Good explanation Shamika Ravi

[@sameerchaturvedi6675]

I think they are manifesting usual difference which any micro and macro economist would have among themselves.For both of them India growth stories is important

[@debabratabhattacharyya2464]

By the depth of his knowledge in long questioning it appears that Rahul should get Noble Prize in all the subjects he is talking on. We all the listeners could understand that he wants the Prince Rahul to be the next PM. May Allah bless both the Rahuls.

[@sandeepmehra5760]

That's brilliant 30 mins spent

[@vishnubharadwajn]

Kudos to Shamika!!

[@rajaramakutty9088]

Even after Rahul requested for a warm applause, hardly any applause. For some reason, Indians don't seem to appreciate fellow Indians enough.

[@muralidhar40]

All in all, very entertaining conversation. Both the speakers spoke with conviction.

[@rishi.girdhar]

Pleasure listening to Ms Shamika Ravi, makes more sense whereas Mr. Arvind is confused on every thing 😅

[@dctmfoo]

SUMMARY: Dr. Arvind Subramanian and Dr. Shamika Ravi discuss the state of the Indian economy, debating whether the government's optimistic outlook is hype or reality. They examine economic indicators, manufacturing growth, private investment, and government policies. IDEAS: - India's economic achievements provide a basis for the debate between hype and reality - Early signs of manufacturing revival, especially in southern states, with factories employing 5,000-20,000 workers - India is gaining global market share in services exports, diversifying and going upscale from the IT revolution - Latest GDP numbers are mystifying and don't add up according to some economists - Declining foreign direct investment despite the China plus one opportunity raises questions - Private investment levels are below 2016 levels and way below early 2000s boom levels - Efficiency of FDI utilization may be improving even if total FDI as a share of GDP is declining - Retrospective tax and allocation cancelations were body blows to private sector confidence, taking a decade to recover from - Satellite data shows 18% increase in built-up area, a proxy for economic activity, from 2015-2020 - India's domestic market alone is not big enough to drive manufacturing growth - Successful developing countries achieved 7-8% growth with 15%+ manufacturing export growth - India may have missed the peak manufacturing opportunity but demand will continue growing as other regions develop - China spends 1.7% of GDP, more than defense, on industrial policy - India must respond strategically - Services alone cannot produce the inclusive growth India needs with its 600M workforce - Government has done well on economic "hardware" but not as much on policy "software" - Questions remain on whether government policy is creating a level playing field for all investors - Production Linked Incentives (PLIs) are working in some sectors like mobile phones - Government capital expenditure crowds in private investment in India, unlike other countries - Scientific, trial-and-error approach needed for industrial policy since India can't match China's spending - India has turned inward on trade policy which seems inconsistent with stated ambitions to grow manufacturing - Providing basic amenities to bottom economic segments is laying the long-term foundation for growth QUOTES: - "The best lie is which is closest to the truth, so we're only having the reality hype thing because there is a lot of reality." - "The latest GDP numbers I just simply cannot understand them. I say that with genuine respect and things they're absolutely mystifying they don't add up." - "Why isn't more [FDI] coming in... why isn't investment, routinely we hear captains of industry coming and praising the economy, it's as if they're saying one thing in public but actually you don't see the numbers in the data at all." - "It has taken us about a decade, you are beginning to see a growth in the last few quarters in private investment, but that's that is the long-term impact of some of these absolutely disastrous policies that we witnessed under the UPA 2 regime." - "We are making the mistake now of thinking that we can grow based on the domestic market which I think is a fatal error of judgment because no country in the postwar period... ever achieved 7-8% growth without 15% growth in manufacturing exports." - "Do you realize the strategic importance of government and industrial policy and what is happening in the world today? You have to respond to that." - "It's not like the country became totally different in 2014... whatever the achievements and the failures we've had over the last 10-15 years are cumulative and bipartisan." - "I would make a distinction between hardware where the government has done very well versus the software... you still don't see any outcomes." - "You should view what is happening in India today as something that happened in the US in the 1940s post the war - you are expanding basic amenities to all citizens everywhere in the country because this is the foundation for long-term sustainable economic growth." HABITS: - Looking at granular, constituency-level satellite data to understand on-the-ground economic realities - Examining a range of economic indicators beyond just GDP numbers to get a holistic picture - Considering the long-term, cumulative impact of policies across political regimes - Distinguishing between government performance on economic "hardware" vs policy "software" - Benchmarking India's manufacturing and trade trajectory against other successful developing economies - Recognizing the strategic importance of industrial policy in the current global economic context - Taking a scientific, experimental approach to policymaking FACTS: - India's share of global low-skill manufacturing exports like apparel is 2.7% compared to around 40% for China - India's GDP is around $2.5-3 trillion, of which middle class consumption is $750 billion to $1 trillion - The global economy is $80-90 trillion, so India's domestic market is relatively small - China spends 1.7% of GDP on industrial policy, more than it spends on defense - India has a workforce of 600 million that needs to transition from agriculture to manufacturing and services - Historically in India, increased government capital expenditure crowds in private investment, unlike other economies - In the 1940s post-WW2, the U.S. expanded provision of basic amenities which enabled long-term growth REFERENCES: - Satellite data from the European Commission used to analyze economic activity at the constituency level - Data on India's share of global manufacturing exports and comparisons to China's share - Historical data on the relationship between government and private investment levels in India RECOMMENDATIONS: - Examine the latest GDP numbers carefully and look at a range of economic indicators for a clearer picture of India's economic health - Aim policies at boosting manufacturing, especially in labor-intensive sectors, to drive inclusive growth and employment - Respond to the strategic trade and industrial policies being adopted by other major economies - Provide a stable and level playing field for investors to boost private investment - Target PLI and other industrial policies scientifically at sectors where India has a competitive advantage - Balance ambitions to grow manufacturing exports with trade policies that maintain an open economy - Stay the course on expanding access to basic amenities to lay the long-term foundations for growth - Take a longer-term view of economic policymaking that recognizes cumulative effects across political administrations - Complement progress on economic "hardware" with equal attention to policy "software" to boost outcomes - Use granular data to identify and target economic policies to areas that are lagging in growth

[@davesen1]

The crux was in the conclusion by Shamika

[@neueman]

I am disappointed with Arvind Subramaniam actually lying to score his points. He seems to have exactly the same axe to grind as Raghuram Rajan. It's all political and not much of macro economics either.

[@nayanakolekar8153]

Gear up for Mandir Economy, nautanki period will close soon.

[@SunilKumar-fv5mb]

That is how the ruling govt states based on achievements and planned target.Why question it?

[@westmorelandrodgrieus7333]

This arvind thinks he is all mighty and mow down any rational reply with evidence.

[@prashanthkamath2223]

Rahul you are so pessimistic and always more confident of congress winning more seats

[@deepjha836]

It's interesting aajtak and indiatoday brought a man who don't know understand how our economy is getting good and adding it gdp but his comments will decide our government policies and judgement of general public.

[@dockalra]

Someone had to say the truth. Thank you Arvind Subramanian. You will be trolled, but that is okay. There is a price to pay for free speech in todays India!

[@brijesh7]

Shamika should be introduced as Pied Piper of the government

[@ravishingravi]

Yup and you should consider your literate but uneducated.

[@RD-sk8cx]

After economists speak you are left scratching your head wondering what did they actually say. Rahul can keep saying it is a totally fascinating conversation, the reality is it was empty and totally useless.

[@sudhirnayak8086]

Most comments are personal attacks, praising one vs another. Nobody really addressed the question of why manufacturing is not coming to India and the bigger share of China +1 is going to Vietnam, Indonesia, ASEAN countries in general. Even apparel is going to Bangladesh. If this is an opportunity, with a small window why are we missing it.

[@naguok]

It wont come because of labour laws and militant unions. Sterllite was a good example of politics missionaries destroying a world class industry

[@addalameda]

Arvind was brutally honest backed with extraordinary intellectual integrity.

[@sudheerk67]

You are extraordinary liar

[@saitech007]

[@gopalramanathan7062]

Indeed his gibberish was certainly entertaining 😅

[@yourstrulytk12]

Why are you out of time😂😂😂 27:09

[@atulkanagat4034]

Subramanian seems to have a defensive posture and a desire to not applaud Modinomics.

[@kalyanp5504]

This guy keeps bitching about everything that India has achieved post Congress. Rahul must have been sponsored for asking leading and nuanced questions to this American import.

[@yourstrulytk12]

16:00 important point raised by rahul

[@ankuruniversalperson]

Such a stupid conversation. Rahul and Shamika Ravi were on one-side and didn’t let Arvind Subrahmaniam to speak much. It’s been 10 years since Modi govt is in power and it is still blaming the previous governments for the state of the economy and the slow growth in the GDP numbers. Where are the 100 smart cities which Modi ji promised? Where are Adarash Gram (ideal villages) which Modi govt wanted each MP to build? If Shamika thinks that the parliamentary constituencies have seen so much growth, then where are the jobs? Why India has such historic unemployment?

[@VengatRamanan01]

Shamika Ravi gave bs, incredulous bs

[@venkataviswanath6688]

Shamika Ravi is ignorant .. please shut your mouth.. America in 1947 is what india in 2024 ?

[@gopalramanathan7062]

Please stay in your “Paradise “ America and keep your blabber to yourself.

[@Khalsa1817]

This woke 🏳️‍🌈 professor needs to be back on the first flight to 🇺🇸

[@gopalramanathan7062]

You said it.

[@pocketReviews]

Who tf cares about a American opinion on Indian economy. Might as well invite some economists from India. India today has always had a colonial mindset. Shame.

[@revanthreddy2319]

Shamika….as usual, stole the show. Wish there was a longer discussion on her papers pertaining to statistics and data collection reforms , constituencies development spread data and how much Modi government has advanced Muslims through social schemes

[@s20233s]

Shamika makes more sense

[@muralidhar40]

As a South Indian, Arvind Subramanian is level-headed and just spoke the facts without bias or being starry eyed. He questioned the questionable GDP figures put up by the Government.