Inside the Newly Legalized World of Election Betting | WSJ

[@wsj]

Robinhood rolls out presidential election betting: on.wsj.com/3C4Ga2i

[@Luther_Luffeigh]

So is this a sponsored video?

[@lejamesbron]

Sponsored video 💩

[@benjeiy7347]

No they're just linking another article by the WSJ on the same topic​@@Luther_Luffeigh

[@GalacticTradingPost]

lugenpresse

[@Loki-ew6gg]

Rather than being worried about the future of betting they should focus on banning lobbyist from paying politicians for favoritism.

[@Amsterdampardoc1]

How will we see what stocks to buy?

[@alephmale3171]

Peter Thiel, the Billionaire bankroller of JD Vance, Trump’s new Vice Presidential pick, owns PolyMarket, the main election betting program. Trump is also running with the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, and is promising him a role in government that could allow him to release regulations on himself and his rich friends for his own profit, and get the president’s support for sending more government funding to his business ventures. TRUMP IS THE POLITICIAN BEING PAID AND EMPOWERED BY BIG BUSINESS, AND IT OVERLAPS DIRECTLY WITH THESE STUPID BETTING MARKETS!

[@Fire_2000]

I agree but how do you ban lobbyists when all politicians are bought out by them?

[@arthurmorgan332]

Yes if it were any other country, evil individuals like Peter Thiel and Musk would've been locked up and, in some cases, even 6ft under for interfering with elections and lobbying.

[@KingJames-go8pq]

the only people that could ban lobbying are the people making millions of dollars off of ... lobbying, and thats just what we know about, imagine all the money flowing under the table.

[@coachtaewherbalife8817]

Gambling odds are based on total bets. If conservative billionaires drop a load on Trump winning, the odds shift in favor of Trump winning. It's based on the payout strategy so the house wins. It's not based on any other empirical data.

[@TheInsaneupsdriver]

sounds like a easy money bet then to bet Harris. She's got a massive lead right now.

[@coachtaewherbalife8817]

There are only two sides in gambling: the house, and the losers. The house always wins.

[@pogzie]

Just saw the history of Yes/No votes in Polymarket and one guy sinking 14m on yes to Trump and around 1m on Harris. Anything for the losers to skew _any_ graph they can think of. Lol. The red caps cant comprehend that the amount can skew the graphs. Lol.

[@whoreallycaresm8]

@@TheInsaneupsdriver then do it? Perdicitit you can get a 200% return. Lets see this "easy money"

[@eli0uz]

​@@TheInsaneupsdriverShe has a massive lead in the popular vote. If you look at the anticipated results in states like Pennsylvania they're way harder to call right now.

[@fenecrusader]

Modern Democracy is crazy

[@danupnorth6607]

yeah no primaries or anything.

[@Hull-m8]

It has always been this way

[@ivangutowski]

'Democracy'

[@Skilliard]

Election betting can also theoretically be used as a hedge. For example, if you're invested heavily in a particular industry that is favored by 1 candidate but opposed by the other, you can bet on the candidate that is harsh to your industry, so that you have a payout to make up for the hardships associated with a new administration. If they are being used this way, this could potentially cause the markets to deviate from the true probability of a particular candidate winning

[@bennycarter5249]

This guy trades.

[@Maksimszz]

True but companies already hedge themselves using different industry's for example tesla would hedge itself with gas powered vehicles like Volkswagen and etc. This would give them another option for sure but I really don't know how viable it will be especially since most politicians end up u-turning on most of their policies

[@Robot404_]

This does not work because you don't know if the candidate will actually cause a downturn in the industry. There’s no direct and predictable "inverse" relationship between a candidate’s win and the market or industry performance. You could bet on the candidate that you do not want to win, a hedge on happiness. Place a bet for the candidate you do not want to win. This way, if the candidate you like wins you celebrate, you lost your bet but you got your preferred candidate in office. Or if your preferred candidate loses, hey at least you made some money. Your happiness/sadness is realized immediately when the winner is declared so it works.

[@XIIchiron78]

Yes, which means such markets will favor candidates who are more disruptive.

[@Gardor]

Yeah but anyone with real information has an incentive to balance it out that is what makes it so powerful. It can absolutely be biased, but will generally be accurate within some range as long as there are enough traders with volume that take it seriously. The more volume is on the exchange the more likely it is to be accurate. Another thing is that it is probabilities not poll percentages which is very different and many people don't really understand what that means. Just because trump has 66% doesn't mean he is going to win, it means he will win 2/3 times assuming the assessment is accurate. So if Kamala wins that doesn't actually tell you if the probability was accurate or not. In order to measure accuracy you have to use something called Brier Score and studies have shown that prediction markets generally do better than expert opinion or polling. It also trades like a futures contract where, while it is based on a real thing, it has leeway to deviate significantly before maturity. The general pattern of futures contracts is that they will get closer to the underlying value as they approach maturity. The probabilities are also subject to psychological biases like any other market. Meaning things like over and underconfidence swings can emerge. As long as you understand the biases and stability mechanisms involved it can be a meaningful source of information.

[@phrinlas]

Not the best researched piece. There is no mention of PredictIt, which has been around since 2014. Watching the 2016, 2020, and this campaign, markets are horrible at predicting results in advance. The only people who make reliable money are political insiders. One tends to see a market trend change abruptedly 15 minutes before a significant new piece of news hits the major networks.

[@HaimRich94]

PredictIt is extremely limited, you can't use it as an example. Offshore crypto betting sites like Polymarket are way better at predicting outcomes but that's because there is no limits and people can bet and put as much money as they want. A prediction market is only efficient when there is a lot of money and interest because otherwise it can be manipulated.

[@Loronline]

Hello I'm a wall street trader. The video is referencing Election Contracts in the USA; legally binding agreements that *do* influence elections. PredictIt, a company in new Zeland (an entity exernal to the USA) has nothing to do with internal betting. The fact you think it does is embarrassing.

[@starkk19]

@@Loronline Because it's a bot. And all the likes there are bots as well.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@Loronline Polymarket is also an external prediction market and it was covered in the video.

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@MrRicklynch57]

We don’t know who is betting? The same people betting on Fan Duel and Caesars. Men 18-45.

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@j.ceasar]

It would make more sense if people who want Trump to win to bet on Harris.

[@LiaEA]

ive seen enough poker to know that 20% of the time happens a lot more than you think. Even if the prediction market says someone is 80% favored you're still gambling

[@vampricramen]

This is fine and not dystopian at all.

[@Adam_Bosscoe]

I have the same sentiments 😢

[@j.ceasar]

It really isn't. It's just like betting on anything else.

[@copyrighttests5987]

I like it, made 3k from polymarket in the past months

[@ManuStromberg]

In January 2022, Polymarket settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating an unregistered swap execution facility and agreed to cease offering its services to U.S. users. The title of the video implies legality in the use of betting markets. Polymarket is cited as an example. However, it is illegal for US citizens to use.

[@teogonzalez7957]

Kalshi is legal however

[@mannyislikethat]

3:20 Note that Hillary did win the popular vote, which is accurate with polling charts. She just lost the electoral college.

[@seattlekarim964]

We stumbled into this without debate and without voting. But, we'll all live with the consequences.

[@AraP24]

The betting market was strikingly accurate in 2020 even at a state to state level.

[@duran9664]

Nah. It is the opposite. Who wins on betting usually lose in real life.🤷‍♀️ Many bet against their favorite team to end up with win win situation 🤏

[@nancyflores1787]

Thank you Lord Jesus for the gift of life and blessings to me and my family $14,120.47 weekly profit Our lord Jesus have lifted up my Life!!!🙏❤️❤️

[@ZerriJoseph]

I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??

[@nancyflores1787]

Sure, the investment-advisor that guides me is..

[@nancyflores1787]

Elizabeth stark

[@freddiearthur2151]

Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark

[@henrymartin9168]

Her services is the best, I got a brand new Lambo last week and paid off my mortgage loan thanks to her wonderful services!

[@sylviamontaez3889]

just so unethical. elections shouldnt be treated like sports games. betting on them is part of the problem.

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@rodm209]

​@@John_Smith_86 I'll use good ol cat randomly selecting things

[@emperorthylord]

Perks of Biden administration

[@DutchCarmel]

At least it encourages people to vote. Most people who are eligible don't even vote...

[@jw2862]

How is placing money on an outcome unethical?

[@niknik166]

That's geniunely depressing...

[@Spicy007]

Polymarket does let Americans bet

[@MikhailMamontov-c6h]

Politicians spending hundreds of millions on elections is OK! But people betting on elections is immoral.

[@LOLE_Editz]

What about Politicans bribing people to vote for them?

[@j.ceasar]

The two are not comparable.

[@Opticillusion160]

@@j.ceasaryes they are, betting is actually a lot more moral

[@Mishanya00]

Companies can give politicians millions of dollars but I cannot bet 10 bucks on my candidate? What a joke!

[@spacetoast7783]

@@MikhailMamontov-c6h These are two totally different things. One is exchanging money between outside observers. One is people spending money to excite voters.

[@BryceMacEvoy]

About a million dollars is enough to shift the scale. Any billionaire could push the betting market to 100% in any direction they wanted to.

[@eliefz526]

@@TC-zf1jibasic math?

[@ihatemotionblur_3255]

@@TC-zf1ji The fact that American system is heavily influenced by multi-billion dollar MNCs who constantly lobby the government?

[@SivaSiva-q5n8c]

Yes 2 billion enough.

[@girdave]

Why would they do that? It’s not like they can predict the election and markets have been a bad predictor of elections in the past anyways, they would essentially just be gambling, and especially in this tight election, that is a huge risk

[@tonyjc1575]

@@TC-zf1ji Two candidates have bets on them, $5 each. Someone drops $40 on one candidate, now that one is heavily favored by the audience by dollars bet on alone instead of number of people.

[@Skooma_Addict42]

Betting markets are way more accurate than polls

[@words007]

Exactly. Since assassination attempt I knew he is set to win. But the odds were very gih in July but somehow DNC convention reduced trumps odds and then people actually started to place massive betts on trump they needed a decent dip to make entry. It's very much like stock market. Trump is going to win not the other 1. 😅 It was set from July assassination attempt

[@XIIchiron78]

Historically, no, they aren't - not for politics. For more deterministic information based or cause/effect events, yes, they can be quite accurate. The thing about an election is that it is the result of people's opinions. So asking them their opinions over a large enough sample is going to give you the best data, unlike for other events where outside factors and mechanisms (that some people are far more informed of) dominate.

[@MiguelAngel-fw4sk]

Not for elections. Most people that participate in gambling are men, and most people that participate in this sort of niche online gambling are white men. So, yes you could reliable predict how white men will vote regarding Harris and Trump but not among the general public. This makes these websites inaccurate since most active voters are women.

[@Skooma_Addict42]

@@MiguelAngel-fw4sk people don’t bet on who they want to win but rather who they think will win don’t forget the whole world is betting on this so a lot of people who can’t vote are speculating on the victors but if your so sure the markets are cooked all in on Kamala ur guaranteed value with that logic

[@clintdaniel9260]

o bs

[@nikkicortez8679]

Betting in sports, elections, etc. We do this so you can trust these institutions more!

[@duran9664]

I always bet against my favorite team to end up with win win 🙌

[@nikkicortez8679]

That's called gambler's fallacy. There is nothing about that that is scientific. Lol, you thumbs up your own comment? 🤣

[@ryanhotrod5416]

Election betting tip of the century: remember, the house always wins. And if it's a House Republican, they just might win twice! 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲

[@veggie-explains]

Ultimately, election betting markets skew towards a specific demographic (male + techy). Sites like Polymarket only allow trading in crypto, and Polymarket trading is banned in the US. Election betting markets likely don't represent the broader general population, but there certainly is real money at play here - I just posted a video about the French trader who bet $45 million on Trump: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z3LWiKFvnd14rdU

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

Why does it matter? Why do you care if men you hate are losing money to each other?

[@dertythegrower]

it is all manipulated with bots and people with multiple devices

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@Lukem415]

You don’t understand how betting works.

[@bIoodd]

Bettings are more accurate than pools since money is on the line

[@jw2862]

Vague and ignorant

[@LOLE_Editz]

​@@bIooddBetting markets are based on the amounts placed. If a billionaire like Elon Musk for example, placed a 5 million dollar bet on Harris, her odds would increase dramatically. Elon wouldn't care because he has hundreds of billions.

[@shahidhossain497]

Here when the bets proved right

[@Monalisa-so4bz]

So we're treating them like horses now.... Ok

[@j.ceasar]

Why shouldn't we?

[@Navitus]

Money so good even trump would bet against himself.

[@dertythegrower]

As usual rigged... and ive proven it

[@tiamabderezai5374]

🤣😂

[@TheInsaneupsdriver]

@@dertythegrower so you're a sore loser like Trump pushing the lies that the 2020 election was stolen, despite there being ZERO proof of it. ANYWHERE!

[@frodijr]

Betting on elections is quite normal in UK/Ireland so funny to see such a reaction to it in the US. The UK did interestingly have several UK politicians/insiders bet on when the next election would be before it was announced and it did lead to investigations/resignations. But its interestingly a more secure market because even the participants of the market don't have that much control over it, in theory at least.

[@beast6029]

You can see the live activity of how many contracts are being brought for each president on Kalshi. More people are buying trump, but people who put a significantly higher volume of contracts has been Kamala. This goes against the idea that millionares are pouring money for trump when the exact opposite is happening

[@XIIchiron78]

Smart money (insiders) vs numpties. Billionaires don't need to place bets.

[@beast6029]

@ billionaires donating millions of dollars in either campaign are basically betting on that candidate. Cause for them that candidate will make them way more money.

[@midorimashintaro2092]

Yes, I'm sure millionaires are pouring money against the candidate promising to cut their taxes.

[@tripleeyeemoji]

Who cares if people can bet. How does that impact anything whatsoever?

[@rajendrabhatia1320]

यह दुर्भाग्यपूर्ण है कि राजनेताओं के लिए स्वास्थ्य और चिकित्सा फिटनेस को कानूनों में शामिल नहीं किया गया है। ऐसा क्यों? राजनेताओं को अपनी जिम्मेदारियों को प्रभावी ढंग से निभाने के लिए शारीरिक और मानसिक रूप से अधिक स्वस्थ रहने की आवश्यकता होती है। किसी भी नौकरी के लिए, मानसिक और शारीरिक फिटनेस के मानदंड निर्धारित किए गए हैं। फिर राजनेताओं को क्यों माफ किया जाता है? स्वास्थ्य और उम्र के मुद्दे पर रिपब्लिकन द्वारा बिडेन की आलोचना की गई थी। सभी राजनेताओं पर समान नियम लागू होने चाहिए। कमला ने अपने मेडिकल रिकॉर्ड सार्वजनिक करके एक साहसिक और अच्छा उदाहरण पेश किया है''

[@Andres_853]

It’s wild how things are getting played up with just a week left. Apparently, investors are making some big moves, trying to 'game' the outcome.

[@mikev324]

Narrator voice reminds me of Johnny Harris.

[@seancartwright8291]

To anyone who disagrees that betting markets are predictive, I invite them to put their money where their mouth is and place their bets. I believe the people with skin in the game, not armchair analysts spouting their ignorant opinions that they never have to pay for. If you don't have money on it, a conflict of interest, or some moral objection to gambling, your opinion is basically worthless.

[@augustus331]

0:20 The problem with the American political system and media ecosystem that's so different from ours in Europe is that people would find this an *informative datapoint* It's not. It just adds to the 24-hour news-cycle noise that uses polls as a form of statistics-porn making election coverage entertaining instead of informative. How else do you think Trump would get away with not having a healthcare plan after 10 years in politics?

[@schnitzelsemmel]

In most European countries you can bet on it and no one cares. And in the US, it's not necessarily the media themselves who care about this, but certain politicians (Trump) who bring this to the attention for their own reasons and force the media to react

[@SpaceGringos3D]

Trumps been in politics 4 years, not 10. 🤣

[@MidnightSouls]

@@SpaceGringos3D He ran for election in 2016. That campaign started in 2014. It's 2024 this year. 2014 to 2024 is 10 years. Keep up.

[@augustus331]

​@@schnitzelsemmel This election betting has been coming up *consistently* at reputable news sources from CNN to the Wallstreet Journal and the NYT. You cannot equate it with the situation here in Europe, because our publicly-funded broadcasting corporations don't have a profit-motive so they filter out empty noise, allowing us to spend more time about *learning* the nuances of the issues.

[@seancartwright8291]

Ok then, bet me at 50-50 odds. If you really believe that, what's the problem?

[@puppy2628]

Those who bet on election gamble, will decently vote. But the question is who is betting?

[@LOLE_Editz]

It's shown that a huge majority are White Male conservatives. Another thing to consider is the fact that you don't have time be an American citizen to bet on the election. This means that you have potential people that aren't even eligible to vote changing the odds.

[@_____alyptic]

Betting odds seem like a bad data point to use

[@duran9664]

⚠️FACT⚠️ Many bet on Trump & vote for Harris. It is a win win situation 🤷‍♀️

[@MiguelAngel-fw4sk]

Most bettings are made by men, and white men specifically tend to be more involved in this kind of online betting. Now if you see trump’s and Harry’s approval rate among white men they are quite close to the percentages shown on those websites.

[@user-gt8ee8ib2e]

The vast majority of the people participating in those markets lean conservative. The entire betting culture is really closely linked to things like ufc, Joe Rogan, and the whole manosphere.

[@georgebourlos1430]

best video ever... so 2024 !!! bravo

[@yengsabio5315]

How is betting different from shorting? Thanks in advance!

[@pewpewpower]

What’s your point? Shorting is not illegal…

[@yengsabio5315]

@@pewpewpower I ask simply because I don't know the nuance(s) of the two. Thanks again!

[@jkulb452]

Had no idea that Nate Robinson worked for WSJ

[@Benjamimic]

Now billionaires can buy a politician and bet on their odds. What a garbage dump of a world we live in.

[@words007]

Either change it or cry on it. Oh wait you're and millions like you only cry 😅

[@savasava9923]

well thats USA for u

[@elvisvan]

5:13 that, my friend, is insider betting

[@coltonc7832]

Did I really hear him say that someone could abuse betting on an election if they knew "how it would pan out???" Is he implying elections are rigged?

[@dertythegrower]

it is buddy.. they admit in court 2020. i compiled a giant playlist so its proven by huge hacker groups as well

[@dertythegrower]

multiple playlists of hacker proving it is

[@dertythegrower]

same goes with the referees and players in sports.... they do bad on purpose because they are paid by the bookie to guarantee a bias on the bet winning more back

[@j.ceasar]

No. Some people might just know crucial information before the public, doesn't mean it's rigged.

[@samuraijack1371]

This is such poor “journalism “

[@maximsarian1664]

Why

[@owen_mania]

@@maximsarian1664no mention of how rich people are literally betting on trump, thus skewing the results

[@parasapan]

@@owen_maniaso if they are wrong, they are throwing away money to achieve what exactly?

[@owen_mania]

@@parasapan Well the hope is to make the betting markets seem like Trump is the favorite, so media starts reporting on it to draw further attention to Trump's "popularity"

[@parasapan]

@@owen_mania so campaign donations to dems and bet on repubs doesn’t sound like a good strategy.

[@mikelikeice88]

This could potentially provide a foot in the door for 3rd party/ independent canidates.

[@celica9098]

I see a bias in the betting markets. Liberal voters tend to be more risk-averse and avoid gambling. So yes, betting markets overwhelmingly say that Trump is going to win, but I would say 60-70% of those betting are Trump supporters.

[@Shapirate267]

This adds 0 value to society

[@BigBoiiLeem]

I have a feeling Trump is ahead on betting markets because lots of people have put a small amount on him even though they want Harris to win. That way, if the worst happens, at least they'll have made a bit of money

[@kingdomcome46]

Narrow? 😅 30 points now...

[@terryzhu4028]

Polymarket? Didn't a couple millionaires donate millions for trump?

[@TheSongHolder]

@@terryzhu4028 that's actually true

[@SleeplessSpecter]

@@terryzhu4028Kalshi he is up 63-37

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@GDUBLU_Fan]

@@terryzhu4028It’s not donating it’s betting

[@SirSeal007-1]

In the recent Trump/Rogan podcast, I think they have a great discussion as to why polls are an outdated and in some cases fraudulent way of gauging who will win, I also think however that Prof G markets made a good argument that in many cases males are predominantly more active in betting markets. So neither option is still a perfect representation. It will be interesting to see how accurate the betting markets are compared to polls this time

[@rosycheek2599]

Who is Nancy Pelosi betting?

[@RichardKing-sx6xc]

😅😆😂🤣

[@patriciarambo1571]

Please get out and vote ! ….Trump 2024

[@duran9664]

I will always vote for Lucifer himself over Trump. Just saying 😒

[@paulohenriquesantos6505]

​@@duran9664And who asked you?

[@j.ceasar]

@@paulohenriquesantos6505 Who asked you?

[@paulohenriquesantos6505]

@@j.ceasar Nobody

[@GreatWhiteTrading]

Watch the markets, they'll tell the story. Just wait till a syndicate gets their info from individuals who work at the polling stations 😅😅

[@TheInsaneupsdriver]

OOOOooo where do i sign up, i haven't been wrong since 03.

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@thuyenlee8995]

Polymarket

[@TheInsaneupsdriver]

@@John_Smith_86 LOL WOW you're in for a surprise!!!

[@User-pw3pu]

Just commenting to see which of you is right in a few days

[@John_Smith_86]

@@User-pw3pu Well, to be fair, I already committed publicly and in writing. He is just leaving it vague

[@edwelndiobel1567]

Ive never been polled in my life and I dont know anyone who has.

[@AndreaDoesYoga]

Election betting, a risky yet thrilling game! 🎲

[@AliasHSW]

Imagine Trump casino is still alive and has to payout out on a Kamala win. Oh the irony!

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@ГаврилоПринцип-и7ф]

Polls are biased and have nothing to loose for lying, and betting companies don't want to lose.

[@johannesnm9706]

To be fair the betting sites in Denmark said a 1000-1 on Trump at some point

[@wazzup233]

I wonder if Draft Kings could accept betting for the upcoming 2024 election and every bettors would go berserk. 🤑

[@BrandonHollinshead]

Must be the price if wine in cali

[@shaboopie12]

@5:25, so you're saying there could be a prediction market for the prediction market? 🤑

[@MikeCee7]

I don’t understand how these gambling companies make money. If more than 60% of the people bet on Trump to win, & Trump won. Then the gambling comp has to pay out. So in essence they’re losing money.

[@redbeard4]

You know who gambles the most? Wealthy old people....

[@jpnguyen11]

How is this not illegal? But I like it!!! 🤣

[@kkmardigrce]

America's democracy gets more and more about money.

[@jeffmcallister7040]

Maybe it has not been allowed by regulators in the past. What the regulators couldn't see was a huge underground market in elections.

[@perseus_leflair1943]

Shout out to pinnacle

[@jamesschoi87]

Wasn't gambling on election always legal?

[@gomaker1]

nope

[@jamesschoi87]

​@@gomaker1 I see. I remember people betting on elections back in 2010's. It must have been illegal lol

[@OCPARKWAY]

​@@jamesschoi87 Off shore gambling sites have been around almost 30 years so you had people betting on elections in the early 2000s ..Not as big like now with Uncle Sam making it legal to wager on these things..

[@ldanielr133]

“Narrow lead”

[@vikramgupta5787]

Sounds like something a lot of republicans would do. No wonder Trump is in the lead on such platforms

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@Amsterdampardoc1]

Trump was losing on the markets for a while, it’s not just republicans.

[@ATTJ7628]

Last election cycle Biden was ahead in odds before the election

They're predictions markets, not polls. And Harris was favored for a while.

[@John_Smith_86]

Many months back

[@KentBrono]

I converted my 401k to a Roth IRA to avoid higher taxes in the future. I'd rather pay taxes now than be stuck paying taxes on my retirement income when I'm 59 and living off my savings

[@Erikkurilla01]

Pre-tax contributions may help reduce income taxes in your pre-retirement years while after-tax contributions may help reduce your income tax burden during retirement.

[@PajinakStanovska]

How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you

[@d9zirable]

Hi what does this have to do with the video

[@spacetoast7783]

@@d9zirable it's a bot

[@mackconcar4314]

Why was this law changed!? I guess its alteady as corrupt as it can get..😢

How is it corrupt in any way?

[@XxXenosxX]

The world is disgusting….

[@kyledenson1287]

How it’s fun!?

[@albertomontague2429]

GOOD! IT'S ABOUT TIME I GOT SOMETHING FOR MY VOTE! WHO OR HOW DO I CONTACT TO BET ON THE 2024 ELECTION?

[@organizedchaos4559]

What are people betting using though the polls

[@vippy40]

Literally better predictor of a W than any polls. Money driven, bookies kept

[@inchicago]

Explain why trump was so heavily favored in betting markets leading up to 2020 election?

[@SleeplessSpecter]

@@inchicagoHow can you predict fraud? 81 million votes? Sure buddy

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@bIoodd]

@@inchicagopretty sure he wasn’t heavily favored, propaganda works

[@spacetoast7783]

@@vippy40 How do you figure it's a better predictor than polls? Bettors are relying on polls.

[@AR-rg2en]

Terrible decision to allow such a thing

[@bIoodd]

Liberal cope

[@User-je7gf]

Why? Its just people betting together all willing to take the risk to lose, it doesn't involve anyone else

[@sisrood]

Like the dude’s voice :)

[@JonWtalk]

"Pro-trump crypto bros or libertarians" sir, stop doing drugs. what a joke this clip😂😂😂

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@j.ceasar]

Is he wrong? If so, how is he wrong?

[@connerrodriquez8092]

I am going to get 🤑! Allan Litchman has make the prediction

[@daveray5655]

How did that end up?

[@connerrodriquez8092]

@ Not well lost $700

[@daveray5655]

@@connerrodriquez8092 rip

[@connerrodriquez8092]

@@daveray5655 ?😂

[@MG_Investing]

Who else watching this with a huge position?

[@GammaRays10]

Comparing to "opinion polls" and stating their inaccuracy is false. The 2016 and 2020 elections, the polls were fairly accurate (popular vote). So yes, Hillary DID outperform Biden DID win but a quite large margin

Nope, the polls underpredicted Trump significantly.

[@DanH-u3f]

Who made this legal?

[@yarikachi]

Everything is legal until there's a law saying it's illegal

[@Fatjucvhg]

@@yarikachi I think it used be illegal but they recently changed it

Why shouldn't it be legal? Because if hurts your feelings?

[@Eyedunno]

I wonder how much Donald's Vegas odds are based on people betting money so they get a booby prize in the event he wins.

[@robertortiz-wilson1588]

Well, they were largely correct then.

[@seanim6846]

Money laundering at its finest.

[@KAZAM707]

3:24 let's not forget he lost the popular vote. Do the polls account for electoral college?

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@schnitzelsemmel]

The appearance or abstract danger of vote manipulation by big betters alone is reason enough to ban it. Imagine if a big fund bets on a result and then goes out of their way to get some votes discarded, pay some workers to tell them the early voting results etc.

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

This is beyond stupid. People already spend BILLIONS on these elections. If 'manipulation' could influence these elections, it would already be occurring because there's already incentive to.

[@dertythegrower]

Imagine thinking people do not have 1 or 2 more or 90 more devices to poll with and make it all not accurate.... ha

[@John_Smith_86]

"I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024. I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes. For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes maximum. For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 2 votes maximum. The above prediction will be determined by the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris)."

[@bumblebee2956]

Just make sure to vote before you bet on 😂🎉

[@markmilitant]

Comments are hilarious it’s not just betting market the polls have it slightly Trump now 😂😂😂 even left leaning polls who are way off left

[@weeohreviews6657]

You can also bet on them via crypto tokens. For example Trump tokens and Kamala tokens. They have no real use case and only serve as a type of bet. One or the other token will pump depending on who wins.

[@Nightsd01]

Let’s be real - there’s a reason the election betting markets are tilted, it’s the crypto bros, they love betting on nonsense and they clearly have a favorite candidate (his name rhymes with Grump).

[@mqultra5150]

My guess is men,especially young ones, bet more than women. Makes me wonder if they take that into account?

[@Sjalabais]

Neat "data point", but you know what would be even better? Opinion editors being allowed to voice their opinion. So we don't let *democracy die in darkness* , you know?

[@maximus7079]

I agree with you but this is the Wall Street Journal not the Washington Post.

[@ra182-x9f]

My inner gambling addict is annoyed they used a European roulette wheel and not an American one with the White House at the center