Instant Banzuke! Natsu (May) 2024 to Nagoya (July) 2024!

One basho after Takerufuji becomes the first wrestler in the modern era to win the top division in his debut, Onosato sets a record for the quickest title win after starting in professional sumo (seven tournaments).
It's almost like all the guys who were there before aren't that good... except some of them are... what is going on?
Music: Tropical Contact by Jason Shaw (audionautix.com)
Chiyotasuke's GTB helper: gtbhelper.verc...
(the normal one is here, but is currently down: chiyotasuke.gi... )
Guess the Banzuke site: www.dichne.com/...
Direct link to GTB entry form: sumodb.sumogam...
--------
Play Road to Yokozuna!: / discord
Nothing on this channel would exist without many of the existing creators of sumo content on KZbin. Show them some support:
The streamers:
Natto Sumo: [REDACTED]
Kintamayama: rumble.com/use...
MidnightSumo: RIP
Salit City Sumo: www.youtube.co... (Join the discord to see older streams)
Others doing good work:
Chris Sumo: / @chrissumo69
Sumostew: / sumostew
Jason's Some-Sumo Channel: / @sumojason
Don Don: / dondonsumo
World of Sumo: / @worldofsumo
Leo Dickinson: / @leodickinsonsumo
Sarah Likes Sumo: / @sarahlikessumo7792
Sumo Kaboom: / @sumokaboom

[@ARMY-ep6fz]

It was a good basho besides all the injuries. Hope waka makes a strong comeback in July when he's in the top division again. Hopefully Teru can heal up and give us fans one last amazing full 15 day show.

[@JackfruitMistletoe]

Hiradoumi as komosubi is so good. He has really developed a tank like sumo. He’s still only 24 as well

[@saltrocklamp199]

Some time in March a spark was lit. He is probably going to top out at K like the other strong small guys but he has the fire now and I'd love to see him as a Sanyaku/Joi regular

[@tigerboy1966]

Hiradoumi quotes Pulp Fiction "That's how you're gonna beat em... They keep underestimating you". And he did kick Onosato's ass in 4 seconds flat.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

That was really impressive, but it'll be astounding if he can do it again. Onosato pretty clearly underestimated how much of a punch Hiradoumi was packing, and then whiffed the pushdown. He'll stand in more firmly next time and then we'll see what happens.

[@tigerboy1966]

@@sumospiffysbarandgrill And all the times after that... these two should be around in the upper reaches of the banzuke for a long time.

[@gibof]

omg Hira at komosubi is such a blissful surprise (sad atami is sad but still)

[@sampelletier5083]

Love the analysis. Thanks for posting! Ozeki Onosato in November let’s goooooo!!!!

[@blender_wiki]

Good chance for November if he keeps this winning trend. He must have 22 wins in the next 2 tournaments (33-11 since is sekiwake)

[@lilacscentedfushias1852]

I like that you’ve listed other channels to watch 😁

[@johnbalkon8521]

Always enjoy your videos and perspective!

[@canerdem6273]

Happy for nabatame.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

The way he was just short of crying right there on the dohyo was incredibly sweet.

[@ummthingy]

Dude, the mugs are awesome.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

Thanks! We'll have shirts up in the next day or two as well.

[@tigerboy1966]

Well I am putting my entry in now. I handled m4-m7 quite differently, but otherwise very similar. We are both in the top 10 now so I wish you good luck, but not too much luck in GTB.

[@josephwirtz8352]

I enjoyed this, thank you.

[@tigerboy1966]

Weird is right. I think this is going to be a super-low scoring GTB. I have Wakamotoharu at M2w in my instant banzuke... but only because it seems like the least worst option.

[@ArminEghdamiDrums]

That's ROUGH for asanoyama... just worked his way up the makuuchi ranks and now has to start over from scratch...

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

It's possible they won't dumpster him that far down, but I think we should at minimum expect him to be in the double digit ranks. If he's really lucky, he'll only go to M9. But if the committee lets him drop, further, he might go on a bigger rampage, so it's not necessarily an issue.

[@scarletmoon777]

My man Chiyosakae hanging in there.

[@hamoodidxb]

I was waiting for this

[@andrewharris4268]

For me, one of the great unknowns is how much each guy’s strength of opponent in the last basho is/should be taken into consideration, especially around the top of the maegashira.

[@LauraJdogmom]

Regarding Juryo and Hakuoho specifically, is a COVID kyujo now treated like any other kyujo, or is it still regarded as a special case?

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

It's the same as any other now. You miss a few days and then you come back.

[@munteanucatalin9833]

this banzuke is HARD

[@SundayMorningSumoShow]

the oracle has spoken and so it shal be

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

What a name! Also, four videos and you're almost at 1k subs? What kind of witchery is this?

[@SundayMorningSumoShow]

@@sumospiffysbarandgrill it took me 3 years to become an overnight success

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

@@SundayMorningSumoShow 🤣

[@wasmichnichtumbringt5280]

Friendship with WMH ended. Shonannoumi is now your best friend. 😁

[@wasmichnichtumbringt5280]

Or the other way around.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

My friendship with Shonannoumi increases the closer he is to a double-digit rank. He gets too high and it's hmmmmmmmmmmm

[@Janka007]

If Hiradoumi didn't get the komususubi promo, that would solve the problem at the top of maegashira, but he definitely deserved his spot. It would be too mean not to give him the komusubi rank just because it would be easier to do the banzuke. :D

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

It wouldn't even be an issue of meanness; the only way to limit Hiradoumi would be to not promote Onosato to sekiwake, and that would break all kinds of expectations (not to mention blow a hole in their ability to get him to ozeki sooner rather than later).

[@ronkluwe4875]

Being somewhat new to watching sumo, please explain how Takerufuji goes from being the dominant Emperor's champion at the March basho to Juryo level for the July basho? Do they really penalize that much for an injury sit out? Thanks.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

It's not a penalty specifically for being injured; it's that if you don't fight matches, they're automatically considered losses. So, if you have to sit out a whole tournament, you're treated as being 0-15. When they start the process of making the next banzuke, they drop you fifteen ranks, and your final position is where you end up relative to everyone else. The top division has 42 spots, so if you drop far enough for 42 guys to get ahead of you, you're probably ending up in juryo. That's where Takerufuji's at right now.

[@ronkluwe4875]

@@sumospiffysbarandgrill Thank you.

[@zelandakhniteblade5436]

Any reason for the bosses to be friendly to Takeru given he picked up his injury in the course of winning a basho? It seems harsh to reward such a brave tournament win with an effective demotion. When he is fit again, he is after all still the other great yokozuna hope after Onosato. It would certainly be my preference to see him grab the M17E slot over Tsurugisho.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

It's just numbers. Everything gets shuffled around mathematically, and apart from the basic rules that govern the process (e.g. winning records are nearly always promoted, losing records can't be promoted), the relative order everyone winds up in is the way they're placed on the banzuke 99% of the time. There are 42 spots in makuuchi, and Takerufuji is 46th in line. If he were 43rd, and mathematically a half-rank behind Nishikifuji (who I have landing in M17E), maybe that would be a time for an exception. But he's pretty far back, and bumping him to M17E would mean putting a much heavier thumb on the scale than the committee usually does. It's also worth remembering in cases like this that a divisional demotion isn't necessarily a bad thing. Given his injury occurred in March, and he had to sit out May, it's unlikely the ankle will be 100% healthy in July. For him, juryo will be like a rehab assignment. Wrestlers are limited in how far they'll rise into makuuchi no matter how well they do in juryo, so with respect to his future, he could go 10-5 or 15-0 next basho and not see much difference in where he's ranked in September. That means if he slips, gets back-footed, etc., he can eat a loss or two rather than dig in and risk aggravating the injury, with minimal impact on his career. We all want to see him back in the top division, but long-term, spending July in juryo is probably good.

[@ciaranleonard]

Thank you for the instant banzuke. Lots of gaps to be filled and as usual, I underdemote all the injured guys to fill in the gaps. Despite what the maths says, I want to be the nice guy to the injured wrestlers. Will nice guys like me finish first for a change or will stupid cruel maths banzuke logic win again? The answer is the latter but here is my nice guy banzuke anyway. ** Y = Terunofuji ** ** O1 = Kotozakura Hoshoryu ** ** O2 = Takakeisho ** ** S = Abi Onosato** ** S2 = Kirishima ** ** K = Daieisho Hiradoumi ** ** M1 = Meisei Atamifuji** ** M2 = Wakamotoharu Mitakeumi ** ** M3 = Takayasu Gonoyama** ** M4 = Tobizaru Ura ** ** M5 = Onosho Oho ** ** M6 = Shonannoumi Takanosho ** ** M7 = Kotoshoho Sadanoumi ** ** M8 = Ryuden Oshoma ** ** M9 = Kinbozan Tamawashi ** ** M10 = Shodai Ichiyamamoto ** ** M11 = Asanoyama Midorifuji ** ** M12 = Nishikigi Hokutofuji ** ** M13 = Churanoumi TakARAfuji ** ** M14 = Wakatakakage Endo ** ** M15 = Chiyoshoma Kagayaki ** ** M16 = Bushozan Roga** ** M17 = TakERUfuji ** --- --- ** J1 = Nishikifuji Tokihayate ** ** J2 = Onokatsu Daiamami ** ** J3 = Kitanowaka Mitoryu** ** J4 = Tsurugisho Asakoryu ** ** J5 = Shimanoumi Tohakuryu ** ** J6 = Daishoho Tomokaze ** ** J7 = Tamashoho Shiden ** ** J8 = Shirokuma Myogiryu ** ** J9 = Hidenoumi Chiyosakae ** ** J10 = Shishi Tochitaikai ** ** J11 = Shimazuumi Aoiyama ** ** J12 = Kayo Tsushimanada ** ** J13 = Hakuyozan Hakuoho ** ** J14 = Nabatame Fujiseiun **

[@TheSpectre2300]

Now that Onosato is pretty much assured to hit Sekiwake, if he can get double digit wins in July, would that get him promoted to Ozeki for September? Or does he have to achieve the 33 wins ALL while at Sekiwake?

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

They don't have to all be at sekiwake. "Official" comments generally say that any bashos outside the sanyaku don't count, but they can if the rikishi has a strong enough promotion case during two bashos in the sanyaku. As such, a lot of us who chatter about this think Onosato could be promoted to ozeki with an especially strong July (may need thirteen wins, possibly twelve if it comes with another yusho). But the situation around the ozeki/yokozuna may play into it as well; if Takakeisho can pull it together and Kirishima regains ozeki, it's much less likely they feel compelled to promote Onosato even if he does win the yusho.

[@HammerbabzN]

Great video! Why doesnt Onosato become Ozeki when he has 3 tournaments with 10+ wins and a total of 34 wins and a championship?

[@besharp7530]

I believe he has to get those wins at sewakei or komosubi rank

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

The last tournament in the run, at minimum, has to be at sekiwake. In addition, they don't like counting bashos outside the sanyaku, which may prevent him from being promoted even if he has another strong tournament in July. But it is possible he'll be promoted anyway if they feel they need another ozeki and he smashes the field again.

[@HammerbabzN]

Ok, thank you

[@CptShelby]

Can not Daieisho go back to Sekiwake? (We had 4 Sekiwake before) And how do you think the J-Ms matches of the last day influence who gets promoted or demoted or not?

[@EFCasual]

Usually the records have to force it to create a new slot, no openings and a winning record at K.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

Theoretically, yes, Daieisho could go to sekiwake, but then they would have to promote Meisei to komusubi and the whole thing becomes an even bigger disaster. They won't do it for their own sanity, regardless of whether Daieisho's worthy of it. Juryo/makushita matches often do determine who goes where, to the extent that they're literally called "exchange bouts". It doesn't necessarily work that way in practice; for example, Nabatame/Kazekeno was definitely for a juryo spot, Akua/Hakuoho might have been, but Kiryuko/Oshoumi only mattered for Kiryuko. Oshoumi was going down regardless. (Chiyomaru/Kitaharima was just because they needed a fourth one after making the other three.) But they frequently make J-Ms matches on day fifteen (and sometimes days 13-14) for the specific purpose of figuring out who ends up in which division.

[@lilacscentedfushias1852]

I noticed this why I was watching the tournament, why do some of them have 3 numbers? Not just the wins & losses? Thanks 😁

[@lilacscentedfushias1852]

This is fascinating btw, I wondered how it worked 😁

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

The first number is wins, the second is losses. If there's a third, that's kyujo losses-days where they weren't able to fight. It marks when they take a loss, but no one else gets a win to balance it out. That's why if they leave midway through a tournament, the scheduled match they miss counts as a regular loss, because their opponent for the day got a win.

[@lilacscentedfushias1852]

@@sumospiffysbarandgrill thanks so much that makes sense now 😁👏🏼

[@andrewharris4268]

Parenthetically, I’ve seen split opinion on whether or not Onosato’s 11 March wins from M5 qualify as the first of his 33/3 Ozeki push, leaving him with just 10 required in July. Do you have any definitive news on this?

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

Short of being in Japan and talking to someone on the committee, it's essentially impossible to have news of this yet. What I can tell you is that M5 is generally not treated as a sufficient rank to count as part of an ozeki run. However, the general feeling among banzuke nerds is that if he shows out again in July with another yusho, or maybe thirteen wins even if it's not a yusho, they'll say something like the M5 tournament was good enough because he had to fight a lot of top-ranked guys. My personal opinion is that they overpromoted him in March specifically to get him to a level where they could hand-wave the basho as being just high enough to count if he killed it and made an ozeki run through May and July. There was no other reason to do it, and it looks like it might play out exactly as they hoped.

[@1stmaterayleigh500]

🎉Hiradeumi Sanyaku🎉

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

Kid's doing good, can't deny that. He's fun to watch.

[@SimonDoer]

I get an error, that the page doesn't exist, when I try to open the banzuke helper :(

[@Janka007]

me too, but go to the other one, it's linked in the description

[@SimonDoer]

@@Janka007 ty

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

Yeah, Chiyo unfortunately got hit by a hacker and his original github account is down. I'm keeping the original link in the hopes it'll go back up and he doesn't need to make a new account, but for now the alternate link is the one to use.

[@DerKinGGonZo]

They will never let Takerufuji drop back to Juryo. They want the action with him in the top division. He will drop to 16 at worst imho

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

If you're right, you might be the only one. It's taken as a given that he's going down because, in that respect, no one is special, even the new killer on the block, and enough guys earned promotions that he has to bite the bullet and drop. If you want to look at it from the perspective of the committee playing favorites, consider this-even if they love Takerufuji, they also love Onosato, and if Takerufuji fights in makuuchi in July, he could undercut Onosato's chances at a quick ozeki promotion. The JSA would probably like to see Onosato either at ozeki or sailing towards it by the time he has to see Takerufuji again.

[@DerKinGGonZo]

@@sumospiffysbarandgrill that would be sad to see

[@obifox6356]

You pushed Mitakeumi up too far for a 8-7 record at M7w.

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

There's no one else who can take the spot, unless you pull someone up from even further down and make it even weirder. The only other option would be for them to start promoting guys with losing records. They could if they wanted to, but I have my doubts about it happening.

[@obifox6356]

Put him where he belongs and Move every one else up 1/2 step.

[@francisgene3890]

Do you really think Takerufuji will be demoted to Juryo? Most say because of his historical win last March, they would be more lenient

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

I don't know who the "most" is you're talking to, but there's no chance Takerufuji stays in makuuchi. There was an outside chance it might happen when it was clear Tsurugisho, Tomokaze, and Mitoryu would be demoted before him, and only Endo, Chiyoshoma, and Wakatakakage had definitely secured promotions, but by the end Bushozan and Kagayaki had earned makuuchi spots as well. That kicks out Takerufuji next and Tokihayate last. It's also not necessarily a bad thing that he goes down. He'll most likely be at juryo 2, which means he can effectively guarantee himself a promotion with a 9-6 record. That should give him a chance to work back into shape without unnecessarily stressing his ankle.

[@joelbrock9409]

They already announced that he would be going down didn't they?

[@sumospiffysbarandgrill]

@@joelbrock9409 Things like that aren't officially announced until the banzuke comes out; the only moves announced early are promotions to juryo and ozeki/yokozuna, I believe. But it's widely expected, and may have been said in a more informal context.

[@yho5071]

👁❤🍝