Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples

Playlist: • Introduction to Busine...
Topics
00:00 Introduction
00:29 Types of forecasting techniques
03:40 Forecasting accuracy - mean absolute deviation (mad), mean square error (mse), and mean absolute percentage error (mape) calculations using qm for windows
04:20 Example using QM for Windows
05:37 Components of time series (trend, seasonality, cycles, and random variation)
07:05 Moving average and weighted moving average
09:21 Exponential smoothing
10:28 Exponential smoothing with trend adjustment
11:06 Seasonal index
13:05 Example problem and solution, Centered moving average method
15:45 Additive decomposition model, regression with trend and seasonal component
21:09 Monitoring and controlling forecasts

[@kennethmillender1393]

Very detailed and easy to follow. Thank you for methodical and easy to understand synopsis of the standard forecasting techniques!

[@bkrai]

+Kenneth Millender thanks for the feedback 👍

[@hazimrashid1231]

Thanks for your explaination, i tend to forget it before but now i think im remember it now

[@bkrai]

Thanks for comments!

[@KiranVarri]

very well explained ...Thank you :)

[@mob4681]

Great explanation. Thanks.

[@bkrai]

Thanks for comments!

[@ragavm4745]

Explanation is very effective

[@bkrai]

Thanks!

[@meda777333]

#Forecasting Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. 👍 forecasting? #projection??? stocks etc

[@bkrai]

That's correct! Thanks for comments!

[@user-gn9qm7mt3j]

Thank you so much.....really well explained

[@bkrai]

You are most welcome!

[@vikrantnag86]

Bharat Sir...it will be great if you can take a case study on Time series (Exponential smoothing) or ARIMA Methodology in R studio.

[@bkrai]

Thanks for your suggestion, I'll keep it for future.

[@Vasan789]

Volume is very low

[@ghifariyoga1097]

excuse me mr. rai, could u please send me the paper that support the barrier for MAD tracking control chart, it says -+8 for low volume item and -+4 for high volume item, thank you

[@anandlodha4438]

Which tool you were using in this video for forecasting?

[@bkrai]

I used Excel.

[@salsag9204]

Is that an add on in excel?

[@95sunildutt]

Little confusing when you try to do it by yourself as need to be case study

[@bkrai]

Thanks for the feedback!

[@parth1211]

Can you share whole playlist where you coding in rs studio from scratch on multiple regression or different algorithm of r studio

[@bkrai]

Here is the link: kzbin.info/aero/PL34t5iLfZddspfUiv-9EaOVNUG64_fwFq For more detailed coverage see: kzbin.info/aero/PL34t5iLfZddsiQ9PK2s3cd7LVd2FjOmIp

[@parth1211]

@@bkrai sir already completed , do you have any other videos on any other platforms on r studio projects

[@bkrai]

Given below are some playlists that I've created, Animated Visualizations: kzbin.info?list... Becoming Data Scientist: goo.gl/JWyyQc Business Statistics: kzbin.info?list... Cluster Analysis: kzbin.info?list... COVID19 Data Analysis and Visualization: kzbin.info?list... Data Preparation: kzbin.info?list... Data Science with Python: kzbin.info?list... Data Visualization: goo.gl/Q7Q2A8 Decision Trees: kzbin.info?list... Deep Learning with TensorFlow: goo.gl/5VtSuC GARCH Models: kzbin.info?list... Generative Adversarial Network (GAN): kzbin.info?list... Geographic Plots: kzbin.info?list... Introductory R Videos: goo.gl/NZ55SJ Intro to Business Analytics: kzbin.info?list... Image Analysis & Classification: goo.gl/Md3fMi Machine Learning videos: goo.gl/WHHqWP Multinomial Logistic Regression: kzbin.info?list... Multiple Linear Regression: kzbin.info?list... Operations Management: kzbin.info?list... Playlist: goo.gl/iwbhnE Regression based Methods: kzbin.info?list... Social Media Analytics: kzbin.info?list... Supply Chain Management: kzbin.info?list... Technology Tips: kzbin.info?list... Text mining: goo.gl/7FJGmd Time Series Analysis: kzbin.info?list... Time Series Forecasting with Regressors: kzbin.info?list... Top 10 Machine Learning Methods: kzbin.info?list... Visualization with GGPLOT2: kzbin.info?list... Watson Analytics: kzbin.info?list...

[@ragavm4745]

Sir use good micro phone,, becoz there is disturbance in audio

[@bkrai]

Thanks for the feedback!

[@belazydocrazy8911]

Small dought sir In weight column the value for week 4 is 7.33 or 9.33

[@bkrai]

You are right, it should be 9.33. Thanks!

[@yvewoyome7116]

why are demand rather than sales values used in forecasting please?

[@bkrai]

Demand forecasting is important for planning production quantities, hiring and purchasing related decisions.

[@yvewoyome7116]

@@bkrai thank you so much!

[@bkrai]

Welcome!

[@rimabhujel8131]

Need solution with definition

[@bkrai]

Which problem?

[@vairamani4156]

increase audio

[@bkrai]

Thanks for the feedback!

[@jayakumari1028]

Volume is low

[@bkrai]

Thanks for the feedback!

[@akashhooda8000]

sir volume kam h...audio quality improve kijiyega

[@bkrai]

Thanks for the feedback!

[@akashhooda8000]

@@bkrai but the concept is clear nd good tho