Invest Now or Wait for the Stock Market to Crash - 2023 Stock Market Update

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DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and we do not provide personalized investment advice. It is crucial that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments. Please consult your financial or tax professional prior to making an investment.
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[@pwells10]

"Hi Im Jimmy", is the best opening line on KZbin .

[@piltoalfrd4211]

*This is my 6tg year in this industry and still nothing to show for it 😢*

[@nishalnandwani]

Great to see this series back! 😊

[@nishalnandwani]

@@RobertDamanii idiot scam bot.

[@joseafalvel]

Always a pleasure watching your "invest now or wait" video series, welcome back !!

[@user-ho6zi5rf3g]

Awesome video, thank you for the info 👍🏼

[@Frank50505]

Excellent clip!

[@edwardglatzmayer5466]

Great video and explanation Jimmy! Glad you are back.

[@victorylee5381]

Thanks for sharing 🎉

[@robertclarkson6064]

Thank you 👍👍👍

[@harsingh6451]

Fantastic video. Great explanations, done in a non jargon way. Thanks for sharing.

[@FundriseFanFam]

Keep it up!

[@matthewlloyd4327]

Awesome video! Would love to see an analysis of Brookfield Corp (BN)

[@y.k8628]

Thank you sir

[@jamesburke2094]

thanks this is important info

[@mbg9650]

What about money supply?

[@nekabutaro7359]

Very solid analysis, Jimmy. This is a cool video!! 😄

[@fareedfei6793]

welcome back Jimmy! appreciate the video. i've been wanting to point out from visual perspective, vertical representation of Bulls vs. Bear were easier on eyes :)

[@jurabnaga2984]

My favorite series is back! Thank Jimmy.

[@LearntoInvest]

It’s good to be back, I’m so sorry for the crazy delay. It’s nice doing the research and making videos again !!!!

[@mustafaince2645]

Welcome back .Thank you.

[@Ghost-kb9ge]

Welcome back happy to see you I advice to have a look into PYPL stock.

[@larrydavis2817]

Welcome back!

[@ninjarider443]

Extremely thorough and informative - thank you for taking the time to share.

[@David.Marquez]

Really glad to see the bull vs bear analysis back once again!

[@jasonweiss1597]

Is the 28th at 8pm good? JW

[@travelerdirk7923]

Hey Jimmy, thanks for the update I totally agree with your analysis. Could you perhaps make one on how much money the government thru at the economy this year to prop it up & what that looks like for 2024, also maybe include how the student loan repayment startup the fall will take monies out of the economy

[@fotiospilitsis8453]

that has been an exceptional video and rarely do you see such holistic coverage of the situation today. It's is only but a handful KZbinrs like you Jimmy! Chears

[@centrino538]

You should invest the X and Y rows. It would be easier to read 🙂

[@MetalBum]

Jimmy give me all my financial advice.

[@Matt_Engineer]

Great video and insights as always! But I find it interesting you gave inflation to the bulls so early. As J-Pow says, the fight against inflation is not yet over. We have seen lower numbers, but we're still over double to target rate and there are reasons to believe it could stick at this 4-5% level longer. If it stays sticky, interest rates could go higher, economy slows harder, etc etc...

[@sebholding]

And the market moves based on investors anticipations, not current datas, already known datas are already priced in. Imagine doing the same analysis in mars 2009, at the absolute bottom of the market, almost all those indicators would tell you to remain bearish...

[@luis-cb1oo]

Glad to see you've returned Jimmy. These videos help people more than you could ever know, especially for younger investors such as myself

[@Tradewithrahull..on..tele_gram]

To succeed the financial market, you must review and put into consideration the dynamics of your trading assets prior investing. Analysis based on research is vital which is why, I will recommend trading with a professional if you don’t know the basics.

[@c.moeller]

Exactly why i enjoy market decisions being guided by a professional, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk management and market experience, been using the expertise and guidance of John Desmond Heppolette, for over 5years+ and I've netted over $2million in that time frame..

[@linsey.]

I just discovered his exceptional resume when I made a google research of his full names online. Base on his online resume, he appears knowledgeable and well accredited I drop him a message and book a call session with him! Thanks so much for the information..

[@IbnFarteen]

I propose that low unemployment may be disinflationary if employed people are, on average, productive making more af the goods and services that have inflated prices. I've never seen (until recently) discussion of employment productivity in reference to the "Phillips curve" formula relating interest rates to unemployment.

[@Captain_Cinnamon]

Considering you are generally pretty positive on bull, this does put weight to bears

[@Antares-rt5ub]

I am glad you compared debt relative to gdp. A lot of clickbait headlines and other financial KZbinrs just say “Oh debt is the highest its ever been look at this housing debt, credit card debt, and student loan debt”. Its like looking at the debt of a company. Its irrelevant unless you know how much the company makes compared to its debt to see how manageable it is.

[@AD-wb5eg]

Small caps are undervalued at this time!

[@jenniferg3251]

Food prices, housing, and fuel are still through the roof, at least in my area. Have not gone down at all. I'm not sure they ever will.

[@prygler]

All the leading indicators says bearish. All the lagging indicators says good economy. What happens when the laggin indicators goes bearish aswell in 2024?

[@azeriainvestments5540]

Jimmi household and credit debt only makes sense on a relative basis to GDP

[@crasy64]

Hopefully US manufacturing will start taking more share internationally

[@victortancheongwee]

wait for market to crash then buy. it will.

[@mjs28s]

@6:33 HH debt (to GDP) being about $1.05 trillion, with inflation being what it has been for the last couple of years the inflation adjusted $1.05T back to January 2019 is $864.6 billion. How does adjusting that for inflation change things or not for you? That means people are still actually better off and their debt it lower than the chart shows, less the chart is adjusted rather than absolute dollars, Thoughts?

[@sebholding]

HH debt is up in nominal term but down as a % of GDP precisely because (as you pointed out) it's increasing slower than prices, and as you know nominal GDP growth is the result of both inflation and real GDP growth.

[@stevenharris6626]

Great educational video!! Essentially, this seems to be what Warren Buffett is doing. Buy a great company at a good price!!! Thanks Jimmy!!

[@mathew4430]

BEST VALUE INVESTING CHANNEL PERIOD, him and swedish investor are the best investing channels on the plataform by a wide margin, keep up the great work learn to invest guy

[@Dave004]

I definitely agree some stocks are quite overvalued (Tesla, NVIDIA to name a few) but I"m curious how relevant the 50 year PE average is to todays investing population. 50, 40 or 30 years ago feels like we did not have the amount of investors (mainly new young ones) that we do today especially with these digital trading platforms all over the place. Wouldn't more investors in the market naturally increase PE? I guess I just wonder where you break off and say "50 and 40 years ago should not be used given the current atmosphere, 30 and above is now more relevant"? Just throwing it out there.

[@dodiloi]

Yes and also just imahine the world 40 years ago, 1980s, cold war, no internet, no personal computers at large scale. These 2 worlds are incomparable.

[@Dave004]

@@jalopy2472 Well its based on more people now in the market. Especially with index funds this automatically raises the market value of companies higher. PE is based on earnings to market cap. So certainly you can make a case for small cap stocks having a smaller PE but larger cap and ones heavily utilized in ETF/Index Funds will have the PE's raised due to more people investing than the previous decades would have seen or allowed for. Thats how I look at it at least.

[@arunsadanandabhat8518]

@@jalopy2472 actually i think so too, millions of new accounts have opened up here in india where i live and in the year 20200-2023, the number of investors tripled, bringing in an unprecedented amount of capital into the stock markets. I am also of the opinion that the more easier and convenient you make it to invest more people join. Investing is something the average joe here does in india, not just something that the rich used to do .

[@triode2a3]

A fair PE ratio is not grounded in population size but the fundamentals of a business.

[@Dave004]

@@triode2a3 Population in general isn't the same as the number of people in the market. Think of index funds that automatically buy stocks, they are massive and have artificially driven up the price of so many stocks from people passively investing in these funds. That would raise market cap would would increase PE would it not?

[@felipeturbayr]

Totally agree with you, it’s hard to fine currently cheap good businesses buy at the moment. Not mentioning the AI hype that is driving many stocks to the moon.

[@malikbeluga7545]

There are plenty off the top of my head. PYPL - 12 Fwrd PE, good free cash flow and still YoY growth at 7%. BABA - extremely undervalued due to “china” would be 200+ if was a US based company Commercial Real Estate Companies, example SLG - trading at 50% of book value

[@JBB372]

There's so many amazing companies out there trading very low compared to earnings etc. The main problems in the economy at the moment are high inflation and high interest rates, historically this has always played a part in bear markets or slugish moves. High inflation and interest rates won't last forever, meaning cyclical stocks that follow these metrics won't stay low forever, finding these companies and buying them now will be the best way for anyone to secure huge returns in the next 5 years, when the economy starts to return back to normal. 1 out of many stocks I have my eyes on at the moment is Macy's (M). Coming towards the end of its 'cycle', once the economy ramps back up and interest rates come down, this company will flourish and I estimate 500% returns.

[@simplydividends]

Surprised your not comparing core inflation instead, much more important indicator and this isn't falling.

[@LearntoInvest]

Core inflation would be a good one to use as well. I believe core inflation is down a bit off the highs, but your right, not nearly as dramatically as the YOY CPI numbers. I think core inflation from from a bit over 6% to about 4.5 or so. I deeper analysis of core inflation vs the CPI could make for an interesting analysis as well

[@simplydividends]

@@LearntoInvest Thanks for the response. Overall yes core inflation has fallen, but it did actually do up 0.2% on the latest figures which is now 2 months in a row. A dive into the comparison would be useful information. Here in the UK we have a big issue with core CPI which is worse than what headline inflation is telling

[@harryfve5]

Jimmy!!!!😀

[@AmirOstad]

Inflation is NOT the increase in costs but rather the increase in the money supply. Huge difference! Plus, the inverted yield curve is a super bad sign too.

[@markhurley2882]

The inverted yield curve is causing fear. That's a great opportunity to buy since no one can predict what will happen next or when the market will hit a bottom

[@AmirOstad]

@@markhurley2882 Fair enough! Always depends on what you buy at what price no matter when.

[@MagicNash89]

The fact that so many analysts, ivnestors, youtubers etc think the market is overvalued is probsably why its holding so well🤣

[@h.b.9694]

haha, true!

[@andrewsmith5789]

It’s not?

[@limkimhui3332]

Overvalue or not, not suppose to always just look at the historical average, it should also look at if there is something more valuable out there or less valuable, if nothing valuable out there, that can explain why folks park their monies in equities

[@stex83]

the longer it will hold the harder will crash

[@markhurley2882]

What about the 2022 craah that decimated many stocks like paypal? Too many people focus on the big names or hype. There's plenty of opportunities in the market right now, esp when fear is high..

[@nopenope6012]

U-3 Unemployment rate isn't accounting for "self-employed" Uber drivers and more... You will see a much different story if you account for this... additionally, U6 is a much better indicator than U-3. Please take a look (it agrees with U3 for the most part...).

[@o0SayNoMore0o]

I have my price targets to start my position i numerous stocks: TGLS $30 O $51.20 FLO $22.50 LC $5.20 MP $17 PYPL $55 MPW $6

[@sebholding]

A reversed yield curve is often a negative signal because it usually shows the market is anticipating a recession, however in the current environment it seems the market is mostly anticipating desinflation which will allow the fed to cut rates, thats a good sign.

[@mbg9650]

When FED cut rates in a restrictive monetary cycle, it's becoz economy is not doing well, semething is broken economy wise. This is what empirical date shows.

[@sebholding]

@@mbg9650 that's what the empirical datas show because that's the usual scenario, but it's not always the case, and the current situation is above average inflation (on the way down) combined with a relatively strong economy (especially regarding the labor market). Interest rates can't and won't remain around 6% when inflation will be back under the 2% target, then the FED will have to cut rates to avoid a deflation.

[@lokeshreddy4677]

@@sebholding if economy is doing well... why would Fed cut rates? It just shows that economy can do well with 6% rates and any rate cuts are not required

[@sebholding]

@@lokeshreddy4677 Firstly the economy isn't booming either, it's just doing okay. Secondly if inflation goes back under the 2% target and keeps trending down that would be perceived as a dangerous situation since it's equivalent to a monetary tightening in real term (even with stable interest rates in nominal term), it could trigger a self fueling deflationary cycle and therefore a recession, the fed will act in anticipation of such a scenario.

[@nikolagenov8881]

Wait, wait, low unemployment is a bearish sign, not bullish!

[@chamindasilva3191]

Thanks. Let the AI hype to over. We will see the correction at the end of the yeas or early next year.

[@skank2dis1]

Sold all of my NVDA on Friday. The market is over valued. Maybe, sell TSLA at 250, meta at 3. Wait for other stocks like CHWY to drop to 25 and buy them up at a bargain

[@hurlentropy6866]

It's likely going to 600+

[@elias6083]

Hi Jimmy, I am a big fan of your Videos. I have a question: Could you please reference the sources of your statistics/numbers (inflation, new housing, interest rates…). I believe your numbers but I would like to have these sources. Keep up the hustle. Greeting from Germany 🇩🇪 :)

[@Bob-yh7ir]

I'll make this easy and short for people since their attention spans are about 5 seconds. ALWAYS be investing. In up and down markets. It's time in the market not timing the market. There. All you needed to know.

[@omarkraidie]

2023 has been so frustrating I want to buy stocks but they are too expensive.

[@abba5.n]

❤

[@shadowninja6689]

Worth noting: The US economy is on the verge of proving the "inverted yield curve precedes a recession" wrong. We had an inverted yield curve back in April 2022, and that was 16 months ago and we're clearly not in a recession. IMO this has always been a worthless metric, seeing as inverted yield curves have historically been much less reliable indicators of recessions in many other developed countries.

[@Crovea]

You should always include "valuations" in those comparisons. You could have all bulls but if the avg S&P PE was 200 then it doesn't matter

[@wei8280]

Ive been watching you for a good 2 years. I enjoyed the stock analysis. But everytime you do this invest now or not, its always so ambiguous always turns out equal bull and bear leaving it basically back to square one kinda pointless imo.

[@sebholding]

And the market moves based on investors anticipations, not current datas, already known datas are already priced in.

[@discovery411]

If all you listen to is the end result then sure not much to gain. But if you contemplate each individual point the video is interesting.

[@sebholding]

Imagine doing the same analysis in March 2009, at the absolute bottom of the market, almost all those indicators would tell you to remain bearish...

[@sixpackshortcutmike]

Wait, just hold your cash getting 5%+ and be patient. Either way it's a win-win.

[@FundriseFanFam]

Keep it up!

[@prygler]

Jobs also extremely lagging indicator. Housing also lagging indicator.....

[@vermasean]

Early reporting team checking in! 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️📈📈

[@exit07]

Its funny how everyone are saying market is currently overvalued when last year's bear market were also considered overvalued..it makes you think about other people's POV.

[@markhurley2882]

Paypal is undervalued rn. Id stay away from AI hype atm.

[@AOE5578]

Nice , personally i will not invest any more for 1- The national debt is very problematic, not easy to solve 2- several big countries are going away from the dollar in trading 3- corrupt White House and justice system weaponising . However i may start again in end 2024 based on presidential election result

[@shanegreen1477]

"The stock market is overvalued" is such a misleading statement. If you are buying etfs or index funds in the total market or s&p 500 sure but there are always stocks and sectors undervalued in the market. Think of it as a market of stocks instead of a stock market and youll always be able to find individual stocks or sectors to invest in.

[@markhurley2882]

Most people get excited about the big names that blow up their inbox

[@mccoyji]

Dollar cost average, brah. No one got crystal ball.

[@markhurley2882]

Exactly. Too much fear. Great time to buy

[@prygler]

Wages are lacking. Wages will go down soon when the recession hits.

[@xzx3]

This video was good timing and as always good analysis. S&P500 definitely seems a bit dear to me right now, I am hesitant to jump on the index right now. 10k probably would get me more perhaps later than now. Or maybe it'll never fall. Sometimes I feel like the stock market keeps going up no one seems to be bothered and I am just being pessimistic. Jimmy could you do a video on PINS please?

[@leestringer]

Are you from the British Isles? I haven't heard the word "dear" to describe expensive since my grandparents died. It's nice to hear.

[@xzx3]

@@leestringer lol no. From Australia but I have the old English in me, that seems to pop out sometime ☺️

[@nedelchopankovski9681]

I honestly think if you don't have money locked up at the moment in stocks ETFs or something and just have the cash, keep going for 3month treasuries with these good rates, risk free investment. Currently selling out of a big gain position and thinking of doing the same, as well as some more cash I'll be putting into it. 5+% risk free sounds lovely and if an opportunity comes up you're very liquid so you can jump in quickly.

[@xzx3]

@@nedelchopankovski9681 I agree. This isn't the time to stay fully invested. Interest rates are pretty sweet now.

[@officialMiaJackson]

Is this a good time to buy stocks? I know everyone is saying stocks are at a discount and all, but just how long will It take for us to recover, obviously there are strategies to maneuver in this present market but these strategies doesn't come common to the average folk, or am I better off putting my money elsewhere?

[@G-DonFrank]

It's all hype! best to ignore the trend at the moment whether bullish or bearish, and stick to a proper trading plan preferably with expertise assistance.

[@KieferRomer]

I’ve been employing the skillset of an advisor ever since the stock selloff of Aug, 2015 when the Dow jones fell by over 1800pts which inherently wiped out all my gains, I was down over $80K(terrible times)…That's when I began using an advisor, took about 6months for me to break even and also net a gain of about $830k while others waited over 2 years to just break even, definitely being aggressive comes with greater risks, but with an investment-coach, it has all been calculated risks.

[@officialMiaJackson]

I could really use some guidance, haven't been doing so great as of late, who is this person that guides you?

[@KieferRomer]

The advisor that guides me is Lisa Ann Moberly, you can read up on her, she's quite known and her works speaks for itself.

[@officialMiaJackson]

Thanks, I found it. I booked a call with her on her website, her résumé seems pretty tight.

[@gillv6330]

Big money been dumping their shares dumb money buying every dip . The fed not going to pause anytime soon. China surrounding Taiwan and creating alliances. This sounds like the best time for me to put my life savings in the market.

[@davebohm464]

sry but you packed so much data in the video to just say hmm MAYBE you could buy some defensive stocks. xD I left the video as clueless as i started it. Hard to say if this was helpfull haha

[@sleepytimeshecomes]

this guy looks like he could be the tin man from the wizard of oz but with no makeup

[@jamiemiller6156]

I love how all these financial channels say you can't predict the market and then spend all their time looking at the macro and trying to predict the market. Clowns.

[@TheBigShort11]

I never wait, always 100% in, i am also a millionair

[@MagicNash89]

"Why would I lock mu money for 30y for 4%, insteaf of 3m for 5%?" - Because you think those rates aren't gonna last too long and you want to lock in that 4% rate for 30y?

[@joyride20001]

Buy now or wait ...13 minutes later didn't give a answer...wow!!!!!!

[@davidclark155]

First time watching one of these. 😊 welcome to make up your own mind corner.

[@marcoalbertospadacini3792]

Its not true. Jimmy said that ETF (for example about sp500) are a bit risky, but there are still sectors or single stocks undervalued. And I agree with him.

[@checkinguout]

Unemployment overall might be low but look at how many full times jobs were lost. Look at how many people are working more than one job and still living paycheck to paycheck. Full-time unemployment is a lot higher, the numbers are manipulated.

[@thegamerboneless2864]

I been finding great value in undervalued options. I been getting 35%-60% gains, sometimes more, I do have a little higher risk, tolerance with the IV, so about 10%, but little losses, I use to use options for hedging, but I find trading them a bit exciting, and big learning curve. Equity being so high and overbought options became my friend 😂

[@kimmuerz6486]

Why are you so nervous?

[@wayne1950]

🎉 Promo*SM

[@TechBro_Dave]

Second

[@djpaulhannon]

First

[@LearntoInvest]

Nice!

[@patat007]

It's the trajectory off the credit card debt. Knowing it's 20% that definitely not bullish!

[@drmsgp]

hi Jimmy, can you help! I have joined your subscription 10 days ago and I haven't been able to use it properly. I joined via the website. I can't access the discord. I sent you a few emails but no reply! I also commented on your last video and you said you sent me a message on Patreon?!! I am not there, not sure how you actually messaged but it is not me! I posted this reply a few times on this video but I am not sure why it keeps being removed. I hoped that you could help me to join the discord, but now I just want a full REFUND please!!!