Investing In An Inflationary Environment!

[@PBoyle]

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[@doctordetroit4339]

Pat, we need an update on the ruble. It's not rubble. And I am not trolling. I seriously want to know. You made a video basically saying the ruble was propped up artificially, I suspect it is not.

[@GM4ThePeople]

Merci pour ça, Patois. o/

[@peaceonearth8693]

19:05 Perhaps what you meant to say is, the causes of prices going higher? Since the word inflation refers to an increase in the amount/size of currency in an economy. Either through debt mechanics (banks/lending) or through the printing press.

[@peaceonearth8693]

@@doctordetroit4339 The fate of the Ruble depends on two key things. China's trade with Russia. And, the success of an Eastern group of countries managing to get a competitor to the dollar as the standard dominant currency. Look for China, India and Russia, as well as some middle east countries to form this block.

[@dongshengdi773]

​@@doctordetroit4339 it is propped up artificially . watch Russian economist Inside Russia . he posts everyday and shows daily life in Russia. even cheese and butter are padlocked in grocery stores

[@dagsterblaster4973]

I'm a 30 yr Financial Advisor, most of my work these days is as a Portfolio Manager for HNW investors. This channel by Patrick Boyle is by far the best investment-related KZbin channel.

[@mr.marvelousmess6986]

I always knew the fees I paid to my FA went to YT premium.

[@faraj3159]

What would you say about PensionCraft with Ramin Nakisa?

[@Lindani_Mvano]

Right 🥺🥺

[@JAKE-dg4lj]

This hands down is the best channel. Straight to the point and click baits. One of the few guy on KZbin that actually has qualifications to give his advice. Not a gas station manager turned into a KZbin financial advisor.

[@itissrinivasan]

Tell me about it ! The amount of sh*t I had to wade through to get to this gem of channel. Phew

[@JAKE-dg4lj]

@@itissrinivasanIt should be illegal to do this, a lot of these so called channels cost people millions of dollars. Casual investors are the once being bent over.

[@jeffbrunswick5511]

You talking about Jeremy? 😊......He's better than Sven Carlin and he claims to have a PhD.....Although I wouldn't take advice off of either of them. Most Seeking Alpha analysts tell you to buy high and sell low!

[@JAKE-dg4lj]

@@jeffbrunswick5511 Him included, too many of them out there that can’t read a basic financial statement and on top of that selling courses on how to be a great investor.

[@consumer5631]

So what stocks should I buy that do well in a recession or should I wait until the stock market crashes more

[@ydderynnad]

It's always sobering to watch a Patrick Boyle video devoid of his trademark wryness and wit.

[@MorrisDugan]

There's no Elon Musk content or talk about NFT's, which makes reduces the odds of comedy tremendously.

[@BrotherHoodofTheDogxix]

One of the best channels on KZbin. Incredibly concise and lucid understanding of current situation. Excellent work sir. Thanks.

[@josephwolf7552]

I have always said I’ll take Patrick over Jim Kramer any day Why I want my bankers to be concise , monotone and can convey complex information clearly Give Patrick a financial show

[@techanic]

There is nothing so valuable as getting information that seems as close to facts as possible and without human bias, where each conclusion is not conjecture but buttressed by actual data. This is my favorite financial news/info channel and I always watch the latest offering as soon as possible. Kudos!

[@Investing_With_Andrew]

Patrick is by far the best teacher on KZbin

[@dongshengdi773]

in short , we're all going to be rich

[@consumer5631]

So what stocks should I buy that do well in a recession or should I wait until the stock market crashes more

[@ptrgr72]

Tradepro Academy guys are really good, although they are discussing more about the trading stuff

[@bobs8005]

@@ptrgr72 what’s their best tip right now?

[@Investing_With_Andrew]

@@consumer5631 A recession probably wouldn't last that long, so I would focus on getting more of what I like. Plus, you shouldn't buy things that do well in a recession in the middle of it because their price is likely up by a lot since others have bought them a while ago already. Trying to time the market and waiting for it to crash more will probably result in missing the opportunity. We can't know how things are going to evolve, although it looks pretty bad right now. I am buying what I consider to be good and cheap right now at an increased rate compared to a year ago, and I'll buy even more if it keeps crashing.

[@anders2705]

Crazy that this high-quality content is available on KZbin for everyone (although I had to wade through a lot of crap before I found Patrick's channel). Thank you for sharing this well-documented analysis Patrick, I somehow feel like I sat in on a world-class hedge fund strategy meeting as a senior board member.

[@jimmyolsenblues]

You are a great teacher. I appreciate your work.

[@MrTeapots]

Also a great comedian when the mood strikes him. :)

[@danb5595]

This is the hidden gem of all financial KZbin. I appreciate it!

[@tiararoxeanne1318]

Key points: 1) 14:00 How investors have fared, when inflation has been low vs. when inflation has been high: 14:07 *_Bonds_* have their worst performance when inflation is high, and deliver their *_best performance when inflation is low_* (in deflationary periods). 14:23 *_Equity returns_* performed worse when inflation is high, even give negative returns when inflation is extremely high. But *_in the long run they have been an excellent inflation beater,_* because of the *_equity risk premium._* 2) 14:57 Historically, there are *_cycles of interest rate hikes and interest cuts._* You can't know when you are at the top of at the bottom of a cycle. But you can follow a rule: a) 15:16 You either invest upon the first hike, and hold until the first cut, or b) 15:22 You invest upon the first cut, and hold until the first hike. 15:41 Historically, in the US & UK, *_returns were much higher for investors who invested after the first rate cut,_* rather than after the first rate hike. This was the case in equities and bonds. 18:25 In the long run, investment in stocks outperform bonds, and investment in bonds outperform bills.

[@nuclearblackhole]

This channel in general just deserves way more credit and views.

[@ITILII]

This is truly excellent work ! Though it means Patrick will never have a job in mainstream media....why? Because he uses accurate data and facts, explains things clearly and without bias, and is intelligent, articulate, straightforward and professional :-)

[@tomlxyz]

That's not the problem. The problem being that his explanation are too long for a mainstream audience who don't care much about financial details

[@25andinvested]

Basically, our boy just got shafted last interview he gave on nexus.... poor Patrick. The price of saying it as it is.

[@gstlb]

Hmm, well, I have doubts about your ability to predict the future, but you did a good job expressing your opinion of mainstream media, which was your goal anyway.

[@Dan-dg9pi]

I really like the analysis and the excellent use of data. I do think that Mr Boyle could do a better job in using topic sentences to frame paragraphs so that the many many numbers can be more easily understood within the framework of a topic sentence. Just a thought!

[@PaulConnor]

What is the difference between 'real' interest rates and official interest rates? The video seems to jump between using these two terms without clarification.

[@PBoyle]

Real interest rates are interest rates adjusted for inflation. So if the official interest rate is 2% and inflation is at 8%, the real interest rate is -6%. Most of the time "real interest rates" are positive, but right now they are negative.

[@kamilo4989]

@@PBoyle Thank you

[@frieswijk]

Investing in uncertain times like these is relatively easy. Just put your money in gold... ....and alcohol. Loads of it

[@danielmorton1606]

Well at this point people missed the gold rush...

[@predley]

Hi Patrick Boyle. I am so happy I stumbled on to your video channel and am especially looking forward to reading your "Statistics" book that arrived today. Thank you for your easy to understand analysis of the Stock Market and historical world financial affairs that affect investing. Paul Redley

[@aleterra]

Partrick, is always a pleasure to watch your videos. Super professional and academic. thank you!

[@DwaynedPearce]

Argentina where it is said "you can see your cash evaporating into steam."

[@tobybrown1179]

No doubt, and don’t see any coverage on msm

[@PlutoTheGod]

Once again thank you for the intelligent and straight to the point content! In a space where almost 99% of creators are either uninformed or trying to scam their viewers, channels like this are invaluable.

[@pparker768]

C

[@quixomega]

Wow, very informative, I had to watch it twice because there is just so much information packed in here.

[@chessdad182]

The gold standard in analysis. Plus a classy suit.

[@1tents]

Thank you for taking the time to analyze and broadcast this data. Your depth of knowledge regarding markets is amazing. Thank you

[@PBoyle]

I appreciate that!

[@spacewalktraveller1]

Thanks Patrick this was very interesting. One thing you said at 18:57 was "Historically once inflation has gotten above 5% it has never come back down without the fed funds rate being raised above the CPI." . Which means interest rates would have to go up to about 9% in the US. Imagine what would happen to the housing market if that scenario does play out this time. If that does happen, which I'm sceptical that it does, this time then the mess would make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Hopefully the supple chains come back online soon, but with China closing down every time someone gets the flu, it looks like that it is not going to happen any time in the near future.

[@rdmz135]

China doesn't care about the flu. Yet.

[@jonahfeldman7812]

More likely what happens is increased interest rates slowly bring inflation down so that when interest rates finally get up to 4 or even 5% we might have real positive yields at that time.

[@Phenommarkantony]

@@jonahfeldman7812 I believe they need to shock the markets once more for the inflation expectations (remember the probabilities of fed taking it up to 75 bhps vs. 50 bhps flipped the day previous to the announcement in conjunction with the CPI report) to come down which is where the real battle lies. Thus I'm bearish

[@Phenommarkantony]

The way debt is leveraged in developed countries these days means that the reflexive effect of rate hikes to battle inflation should be much harsher on the real economy which in turn should effect asset prices

[@meredithelbert6608]

A diverse portfolio spread across stocks, i-bonds and dividend stock funds is generally my ideal investment to beat inflation for the average investor it provides greater long term returns. it has worked out best for me in achieving a 7 figure on my portfolio also with the help of a FA handling my portfolio. smart investing is key.

[@stanleyfujiwara1394]

that's quite impressive, you've surely made a good bit of money

[@mitchsapastein5593]

I'm trying to build a three fund portfolio, but i'm still trying to wrap my head around it ..can I maybe get a link through to your FA?

[@meredithelbert6608]

@@mitchsapastein5593 sure, she's by name Susan Kay Mack. she's quite known. search her up for her info

[@mitchsapastein5593]

@@meredithelbert6608 found her webpage by looking up her name online.... Her resume is quite outstanding, I'll be writing a mail to her shortly..

[@bostoys]

these spam bots are getting smarter and smarter... but they are still dumb as shit.

[@ekszentrik]

Invest in organic quinoa ranching in Patagonia for maximum stability.

[@peterweiden6578]

Thanks! I learn so much from you thank you for all the hard work and making me laugh at the same time!

[@PBoyle]

Glad to hear it! Thanks for watching!

[@tc3724]

This is like the one guy on KZbin who actually appears to check sources and isn't just talking out his ass.

[@soarfung]

So does it mean: Switch portfolio to equities when interest rate cuts start; Switch to bonds when inter rate hike start?

[@Inspectorzinn2]

Uhhh bonds you own experience capital gain when interest rates are cut. If you own a bond with a 5% rate and rates are now 2%, your bond is worth significantly more. The more interest rates are cut, the more valuable bonds you own become. You comment sounds like you are saying sell low, buy high? Selling your bonds AFTER numerous interest rate cuts would be taking profit. You want to buy bonds AFTER numerous interest rate hikes, why would you want to own a bond paying 2%, when you can own a bond paying 5% at the same risk level?

[@soarfung]

@@Inspectorzinn2 yes it sounds strange but the video says to adjust the allocation to the interest rate cycle. What should be the strategy?

[@AndyWallWasWeak]

Thanks for the video. Interesting data but wonder if reasonable to act upon such long term comparisons. Inflation is not what it used to be in ‘45, measured and felt differently, neither is central bank policy, nor e.g. $ as a world currency. So too is equity index (few top firms account for large portion and often change), now e.g S&P is also more global while indexing even didn’t exist 80 years ago. Add supersized HFs, derivatives, bonds with negative coupons, demographics, too much uncertainty

[@marybusch6182]

Great points and don’t forget their felonies. I mean Madoff characters. Remember madoff was operating from 1962 at least that is the earliest time I saw. He fiddled for a lot longer than Ponzi himself. And when you see one cockroach, you can bet there are more.

[@joeschmoe6908]

I mean, you have to act one some data. You're right that a lot has changed, but I think if you restrict the data, in a chronological sense, to more modern and seemingly relevant times, you may not have enough data to draw any worthwhile conclusions.

[@mikehunt1933]

Where do I put the money!!!!

[@abitler9445]

Beenie babys...going to be huge

[@patrickbonney8082]

Soup kitchens are the future.

[@sunnohh]

Would you be interested in a bridge I have for sale?

[@argh6666]

Up yourself!

[@doooofus]

bullets

[@theIdlecrane]

Amazing video Patrick. There are two take away points for me, firstly FEDs will have to raise interest rate to above CPI to get inflation under control. Secondly it is wiser to invest into a rate cutting cycle than rising cycle. If we do 50bps at every meeting, how long do we have to wait until the rate is above 8%？ We are in for very risk adverse times over a time horizon measured in years, if not decades...

[@MsTyrie]

Good question. If viewed simply as rate hikes continuing until they are at parity with inflation, it might well be that inflation comes down to meet rates rather than rates going up to meet inflation. It's a start but a broader view of taking on risk, that takes into account additional macro measures such as political and social trends. I have a hunch that inflation won't respond to rate hikes as much as the market seems to think. There are potent inflationary forces at play that aren't rate sensitive. If rates are cut because a recession appears, that would be a bad time to invest in equities, at least at first. Just saying that timing based on rates alone could backfire.

[@_derpderp]

@@MsTyrie You aren’t wrong, but, “timing based on rates alone could backfire.” might be understating to an unknown degree. Unless we see Volker-sequel moves the tail is still wagging the dog. I think 50bps a meeting is to gauge how people- not markets, react at the national scale. Will the psyche of the populace tolerate lower expectations/demand destruction? Or (as seems to be the case) will gov.debt+ personal credit-fueled consumption keep the music playing while the dancers have seizures on the dance floor? As a “millennial”, I doubt anyone really appreciates how ambivalent the upcoming generations attitudes toward debt is. My opinion is you’d need to see double-digit rates to squash inflation but the price destruction would be unsurvivable probably. We need to bake more pie not incentivize gamification and further fractionalization of existing pie. For a silly pop television analogue, It’s the difference between “New Yankee Workshop” and HGTV nonsense. One teaches people how to build a cedar chest the other teaches people that a 4x over-levered house might sell for .25% more if there is a cedar chest in the foyer at the showing…so now your only barrier to “success” is a half-million dollars and a cedar chest.

[@MsTyrie]

@@_derpderp Good thoughts. I wonder whether the "general populace" tracks changes to the target Fed Funds rate. You're right, govt largess can keep the music going while some dancers lie seizing on the floor. Not a pretty sight.

[@_derpderp]

@@MsTyrie I don’t think most do. Not that I blame anyone for ignoring it. As Vsa, MC, Amaz$n, payp@ll, ebuy, et all. Expand offering buy-now-pay-later-insta-cred w/o collateral, as well as 10yr car loans etc. People accept the new normal. Younger generations assume “it’s always been this way” knowing nothing else. I’m reminded of my parents leasing their first pine furniture set in the 70’s and their mort. rate being double digits adj. the difference being the 80’s and 90’s were on the way and the the furniture lasted 25 yrs. hindsight is rose-colored and the future unknown. “What has been, will be again. There is nothing new under the sun”.

[@Foxtrottangoabc]

I think thevfed is doing its part to slow inflation , but governments yet to catch up. Usa china Europe still printing borrowing like crazy , I can't see inflation come down untill some kind of govt spending is bought under control or the fed just keeps raising untill a big crash reset to remove surplus cash. I think while btc crypto is still above 10k or 5k or 1k as example then there must still be surplus fun money floating around still , thats my thinkin is crypto the buy signal when btc crashes :)

[@ChocolateMilkCultLeader]

I've been sharing you content regularly on my newsletter (it's about Computer Science and Software Engineering). Your analysis is amazing. Please keep posting

[@PinkFZeppelin]

Dude your videos are so good. 20 minutes of actual information. So many channels feel like I’m listening to a high school persuasive essay that’s trying to meet the page requirement (optimal time for Ad revenue).

[@SashaYanshin]

An interesting question is whether the US stock market being ahead of the curve is a simple deviation from the average that will revert to norm… Or if there are foundational reasons like global enterprise and investment flooding from other countries into the US market. In which case extrapolation of some sort would maybe make more sense.

[@pulisicmark7197]

Best channel to follow just like in the crypto world with jasonpizzino so consistent

[@emmanuelwillson5719]

*Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today

[@victoriamorgan5314]

How does this whole process works? I'm interested in investing in crypto but still confused by the fluctuations in price🙁 and who to listen to

[@katrinamichael4516]

Just simple by following jasonpizzino on youtube to understand his analysis on the market crypto

[@TabrezMalik-y1w]

Plan your investment with a reliable and profitable Expert .

[@smithsteven9504]

that's why you need the help of a professional like Mr jason who trade and understand the market more to earn good income, these professionals understand the market like it's there own farm and makes maximum profit for investors.

[@susymay7831]

How would you expect investment banks to do under the predicted scanerio? Jeffries in particular?

[@Bertuzz84]

These are some rookie numbers. Natural gas has gone up by 200%, electricity by 90%, meat by 40% and protein powder by about 80%. Houses also went up by 22%. There is no way that i am believing that inflation is under 20%.

[@execontini]

Really nice content and very high value info pd: theres it something with the audio that doesnt feel right, try to adjust the mic or equalizer!! cheers

[@10e999]

I feel like a lot of today's problems stems in part from the fact that shareholders expect profits to increase over time. In a finite world, this is confusing to me. For a futur video, I would be interested to listen to you explore the "assumption of growth" of markets.

[@rashadarbab2769]

We are seeing this with companies that claim to be infinitely scaleable. Everyone already uses uber and yet they dont make money. Everyone already has a prime membership and a netflix account. The only path to profitability is to raise prices or increase efficiency to diminishing returns.

[@OneOnOne1162]

Not saying the assumption of growth is infinitely true, however I will point out that the idea that we live in a "finite world" is also kind of incorrect in a practical sense. Sure, there is a certain limited amount of arable land, for example. But nowadays through the use of things like GMOs and fertilizers we can produce far more food with the same amount of land than we could a century ago. In fact, these days the amount of arable land being used is going down while food production is still going up. Technological innovation can make the "finite" world we seem to live in less finite than previously thought. And that's not even taking into account the fact that space transportation is getting progressively cheaper and robotics are getting progressively more advanced. It might not be that long until the entire solar system is open to us for use, thereby once again pushing the "finite" amount up. So yes, the world is finite in theory but in practice what that "finite" is continuously pushed upwards. How long can we keep doing that? Who knows. But my point is that what seems finite now may be a lot less finite tomorrow. And it's quite possible that this will go on being true for centuries or millenia to come.

[@10e999]

@@OneOnOne1162 Fair enough. I would even add that space mining could redefine how finite the world is. That said, to me the problem lies in the fact that EVERY compagnies are expected to grow. IMO, It's crazy to assume a Bread making compagnies will grow indefinitely. Same for things like uber.

[@craigmcpherson1455]

@@10e999 That is the major flaw of capitalism. You cannot have infinite growth in a finite world. It's why companies that once provided great products at reasonable prices fall from grace.

[@10e999]

@@rashadarbab2769 I agree.

[@niggynico2954]

Thanks Patrick for another informative video

[@titsonafish]

Here here!

[@SteveJonesOwnsDSP]

So hold for now, and start investing again on the first Interest rate cut. Next question is, when is that cut gonna be. Since they predict 1.50-1.75, probably not for a year at least. Damn. Gonna be a bagholder for a while.

[@mikatu]

Invest in crypto, since it will buttom in a few months and will start going up 2 years later..... and up to unbelievable highs!

[@samsonsoturian6013]

Stock prices are forward looking. Following current trends you should invest when the Fed talks about cutting rates.

[@itissrinivasan]

Such an interesting observation - that interest rate hikes can’t negate the inflation caused by supply side shortages ! A lot of us (definitely me) tend to think that it was because of the printing machine going brrr

[@OneOnOne1162]

Inflation simply isn't that simple. Inflation is influenced by many, many different factors, monetary policy is only one of thise factors. Just think of it in terms of basic supply and demand. Yes, when you increase demand by printing money during a time where increased employment, etc. cannot increase supply (because employment is already low, for example) then you have more demand for the same supply and so an increase in prices, but that's not the only way this works. When you, for example, have one country invade another and they can no longer export their wheat (Ukraine produces 10% of the world's wheat and Russia 17%) then demand stays the same but supply decreases, also raising prices. And there are often knock-on effects of such things. There's a reason why economics is an entire discipline and not just some small thing that doesn't require expertise and lots of education. It's because the economy is really complicated and something like "inflation is always solely because money printer go brrrr" is too simple an explanation that simply cannot cover the entirety of the complexity of the field.

[@OneOnOne1162]

*these factors *because unemployment is already low

[@epsilon3821]

@@OneOnOne1162 Wrong. Inflation is caused by government stimulus and money printing. You lot overcomplicate things while never actually reading into fundamentals. Read Sowell, Mises, then Rothbard. Simple as.

[@epsilon3821]

@@OneOnOne1162 And by the way, mainstream economics is why we are in this mess. Austrian economics got it right a century ago and yet no one learned because they trust government too much over being responsible, independent-thinking adults.

[@romaboo9772]

@@epsilon3821 Your heroes have been challenged and proven both wrong and right many times. Economics isn't an exact science like physics, biology, or chemistry.

[@T3hderk87]

When the presenter has a 14 minute overview/introduction prior to speaking on what the title card says, I recommend 10/10!! Thank you sir, I loved it and learned a lot.

[@simonbelmont5801]

Patrick, you've gone from 30K subscribers to 300K in an instant. Congrats sir! Thanks for the great content and the vicious dry wit! 😁

[@rajeshupadhyay5683]

Well said! I am also here to learn how to invest after listening to a lady on tv talk about the importance of investing and how she made 7 figure in 3 month, somehow the video taught me nothing and left me even more confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas on how to invest for retirement

[@lezliewhicker8450]

@@rajeshupadhyay5683 lookup Priscilla Dearmin-Turner, this is her name online, she's now the real investment prodigy since the crash and have help me recovered my loses

[@davidhudson3001]

Investment now will be wise but the truth is investing on your own will be a high risk. I think it will be best to get a professional👌

[@dr.ervingalen1777]

@@lezliewhicker8450Thank you, Going through her profile in her webpage, she smashed all her state certificate and accreditation🙏

[@investorwest8735]

A news host spoke so highly of the💕 woman Priscilla Dearmin-Turner and her loss prevention strategies been trying to get to her ever since didn’t know she was so accessible

[@TravelWithMeGadget]

Patrick's videos are always awesome, but this one manages to be even better than that. I will watch it several times

[@sis1296]

Hi Patrick. Love your videos. I am Canadian. Love your chart at 6:13.

[@jamesmccarty8988]

No discussion of hard assets such as real estate or precious metal

[@imanmokwena1593]

Thanks!

[@PBoyle]

Welcome!

[@samsonsoturian6013]

7:10 The Nazis also permanently closed markets, mostly. They coerced the sale of some companies to the state or party members (often using arbitrary fines), while others were forced to take on state regulators on site to run things. While all the names were different, the end result was the same as in Communist Russia. The little stock/bond trading that took place were party members trading state backed assets with each other. All but a few markets were closed completely, and the remainder laid off virtually all permanent staff.

[@tobybrown1179]

These finer details are left out no doubt

[@davidpapagib3638]

Thank you for a non political take on inflation. Very informative

[@tristenjacob6081]

Economists say next year the recession starts, Isn't that happening right now???

[@samuel.andermatt]

Should we also adjust for the economic growth driven by population growth, which might be smaller in the future?

[@fi777a3]

A bit of wit here and there wouldn't hurt. Thank you very much for the content but this took some energy to listen to...

[@allenbythesea]

thanks for the information but this gave little drection on what to invest in other than 'everything' after the first rate cut. Also the conclusion that investing in a low rate environment is flawed as low rates generally connotate there are slower economic conditions to begin with.

[@wallacesouza2678]

I'VE BEEN SEEING POST EVERYWHERE ABOUT FOREX TRADING AND CRYPTO CURRENCY, A LOT OF PEOPLE KEEP SAYING THINGS ABOUT THIS TRADING PLATFORMS PLEASE CAN SOMEONE LINK ME TO SOMEBODY WHO CAN PUT ME THROUGH..?

[@montserratherrero782]

Mrs Olivera Jane okhumalo,God will continue to give you the strength to satisfy all your client.

[@Simeonsaater]

Wow l'm just shock someone mentioned expert Mrs Olivera Jane okhumalo, I thought I'm the only one trading with her, She helped me recover what i lost trying to trade my self.

[@marinefernandez3166]

who's this professional, everyone is talking about i always see her post on top comment on every KZbin video I watched how can i reach her?

[@behemoththekitty]

Thank you for providing this info gor free, that's so generous. Some hedgefund managers are nice people it turns out. 😊

[@awesomeferret]

It's like any other "bad" profession. Like lawyers and cops, most are great, normal people, you just don't hear about them because the bad people draw public attention.

[@МирославБейков]

Hi Patrick, I really like the restrained and moderate tone you have adopted for your videos. I would like to ask you what’s your take on this statement from the original report (ch.8) you’re discussing in this video: “Stock-bond diversification has been effective in recent years due to a negative stock-bond correlation, but we caution against relying on it continuing.” Especially the last part … 🙂 and keep them vids coming 👍🏻

[@kamilo4989]

I think it's saying that, for example, when stocks go up then bonds go down (correlation) and to be weary of a trend contining. The point is that a common strategy recommended is to invest in high risk (stocks) and low risk (bonds) portfolios. My speculation is that with continued political unrest and non-developed countries being tied to a global reserve currency they can't control, much of the world (outside of the USA and China) will experience strong financial movements and problems in the coming decade.

[@Asaaldridge22]

Patrick can you wish me luck on my Series 66 please it’s mean a lot😁

[@PBoyle]

Good Luck!

[@runswithtrees6173]

I wonder what Mr. Boyle thinks the real inflation rate is?

[@TrueGrantsta]

Interesting video but I didn't see you list any asset class which performed well during high inflation / raising central bank rates. Did I miss it, or was it missing from the video?

[@angeloschulz1999]

Hi Patrick, would love to see a video about equity risk premium and how to estimate it

[@justmeandmy]

Patrick, What do you make of Ray dalio's effective claim that looking at these stock markets can confuse us because it's focused on the rise of the american empire, and that there maybe a new rising power (such as china)? Do you think people should be focusing on Global equities to hedge against the risk of US Market decline?

[@chancerobinson5112]

122 Years of Data? Now, that’s investing for the long term! So, the retail investor has to wait patiently for 122 years and everything will work out!😜 The retail investor has a 20 to forty 40 window to invest and build wealth, if at all. Clearly, with the recession of 2008-2009 still visible in the rear view mirror, and the next one looming ahead, it is quite possible to get wiped out in your life time, even if you were quite prudent.

[@michaelbraun9750]

Jeanne Calment could have made it

[@anipopescu]

Video includes deep recessions where ppl got wiped out… those are part of the 122 average too. I like it that this channel never gives away conclusions!…🧠 gotta have 🤷🏼‍♀️

[@kimgysen10]

If you get wiped out, you didn't invest lump sum (which I think one must with large amounts)... neither should investing come on its own for the majority of people... investing means living in the positive always, increase your cash income... then find ways to make your money work for you. But in the end it's not putting all your money in and then waiting while living a breakeven life... when stuff goes down, you must be able to buy more, always.

[@tomlxyz]

@@kimgysen10 that's timing the market though

[@kimgysen10]

@@tomlxyz Timing is unrelated to this.

[@bleebleblahble8833]

This was one of your bests. Absolutely packed with relevant info. Thank you!

[@troelsvestergaard6644]

Like what? Nothing new in my opinion.

[@charlesq7866]

Fascinating! And expertly delivered!

[@moors710]

When I studied business administration and economics at North Dakota State University, (a high inflationary period) the information I received in my classes were what you are presenting here.

[@moors710]

I graduated in 1981

[@WatermanViolinStudio]

Well, CPI is above at least the consumer price, PCE rate of the latest data points. But the stat you mention, getting FF rate above CPI rate when >5%, makes the key issue shelter. Shelter is a hugely lagging indicator by means of how it is measured. The fed has briefly acknowledged this at times, but it seems key in the coming months. Current leases are already showing deflationary tendencies, and yet shelter keeps showing increases due to a silly choice of dataset. It's like flying a plane and you only get the yaw/pitch data from 60 minutes ago while flying on instruments, disaster is not from the datapoint but from the lag time. I imagine you are already quite aware of how shelter is a lagging indicator, or perhaps you disagree? I would love to hear you educate on that if you disagree. ...but CPI ex shelter has shown clear 6 months of inflation being beat. Seems like a timely change in how the data set is measured, so as not to cause undue harm to the economy would be quite wise of the fed. Enjoying learning from you!

[@tpower1912]

One huge issue I didn't see mentioned is that capital gains tax is generally applied irrespective of inflation so any gains made in a year of high inflation in which an asset simply appreciates against the dollar are treated by the same percent tax as in a low inflation year so significantly more of your real earnings are taxed.

[@tpower1912]

@𝑷𝒊𝒏𝒏𝒆𝒅 𝒃𝒚 Patrick Boyle Hmm. I'm not sure if this is Patrick.

[@tossed_about]

Interesting that Credit Suisse have the best book on learning about historical trends in asset return - I guess they forgot it was in the library !

[@233kosta]

Do their plans to tackle "inflation" (or rather the rise in CPI) include switching off the money printer for a while?

[@georgelionon9050]

So summary? Forget about getting +20% per year on an index tracker again any time soon.

[@catriona_drummond]

Austria is probably a bit of an outlier. No idea if the data accounts for it, but I suspect the complete breakup of Austria-Hungary into half a dozen countries, Austria being one of the smallest of these, in 1918 might have something to do with it.

[@Andrew-dy1xi]

If investing when the first interest fall gives much better real returns (therefore adjusted for inflation) then investing when the first interest hikes, however investing when the first interest rates hikes, the real return is still positive. Then rather then holding onto cash and waiting for the first rate cut to start investing, wouldnt the best decision be to still invest during the interest rate hikes in the mean time since the returns are still a real positive (Thus still +% adjusting for inflation)?

[@cristivfr1591]

Yes, but in that case you already had consumed a lot of money until first rate cut. And the real return until first cut would be smaller (even still positive) than if you deploy the money after the first cut.

[@TomNook.]

I'm liking the office background

[@ob1o675]

I always enjoy your take on finance and financial matters. Are you a professor? Seems like a classroom. I'll definitely be buying your book soon.

[@jakeigoe2578]

I really respect your analysis... generally. However, I have a huge problem with historical data sets as a prediction of future events. This is a very academic thing to do. The problem is academics make horrible investors. 2022 has proven MPT wrong, because noncorrletion (historically) became correlated. A free thinker, not looking at datasets, could have seen this possibility. Based on market conditions. Also, almost no one cares about 100 year plus returns. The only returns that really matter for an average investor in the next 5-40 years. Unless you are royalty who think in terms of many future generations of power. Thanks for all the awesome content!!! I just disagree with this one.

[@simplefinance]

Just want to say I find you kind of boring in delivery but GREAT GREAT actual content. In the end, it works as I watched the entire video and found it very interesting overall. I respect it. Thanks for this video.

[@amirchoudhury9507]

In a world where any douche bag with an internet connection can become an overnight investment “guru”, it’s refreshing to see someone with actual credentials and qualifications make content that is actually informative

[@archiemcdougald5466]

The golden rule to investing in times like this generally is "diversification". You shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket. A friend of mine lost almost half of his inheritance in the Luna crypto saga. Personally, as one who has been into Real Estates for as long as I can remember, I made my first million earlier this year from stocks alone (through the help of a pro though). I also experiment with a couple of other things. Imagine what the situation would had been given the real estates market if I were solely banking on it.

[@Kortneylove-1]

Pragmatic... I have been into all of these for sometime and though I won't say I have lost a fortune, I have squandered quite a lot... How can I get in touch with one? If it's not a problem, do you mind recommending the pro. you worked with? I could definitely use the help of one right now... I anticipate your response..

[@thesportsguruu]

@@Kortneylove-1 you don't need one if you got time. read materials on this, watch videos on this, you will be alright

[@archiemcdougald5466]

@@Kortneylove-1 Funny enough, I can honestly relate. It takes some level of decisiveness and discipline. I don't know if I am permitted to drop it here, but her name is "Nancy Lynn Lewis". Was in the news a lot in 2018. You may check her out online for more.

[@dr.karidouglas1312]

@@archiemcdougald5466 Wow I know this little lady. Once attended a seminar she was also in attendance in Vienna,, Great speaker with a funny accent,, She's American though, I doubt she works with foreigners,,,

[@Kortneylove-1]

@@archiemcdougald5466 Thanks

[@axnoro]

So what's left? Commodity ETFs?

[@tribalartcollector7408]

Are the inflation rates calculated the same way throughout time? or do we get the “better” cpi numbers using the government new way to calculate them i.e. by some magic always lower than the old “worse” way of calculating?

[@Private-GtngxNMBKvYzXyPq]

Another thing rate hikes probably will not fix is the ‘pricing power’ derived from consolidation. Respectfully submitted.

[@quokkapirquish6825]

Banks benefitting from interest rate hikes has got to be a good call. Barclays paying good dividend too, so fairly safe investment and current stock price is a fraction of its peak. Perhaps the return of interest will encourage savers and greater bank profits. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced.

[@getmartincarter]

You make reference to an interview you recorded with an economist with the name Minogue . I’ve been unable to find this interview on your KZbin channel . Please direct me to the correct title.

[@sasha-01]

Beat in the business, Mr Boyle!

[@jarnkarlinn]

This is an amazing video!

[@FlyingFun.]

So its complicated is the answer, buying more bonds rather than equities may lessen the risk? But waiting it out in cash is a bad idea.. There are no good choices unless you want to risk shorting , there are simply less worse choices maybe if like me you are retired but need to decide where to.put your pot.

[@DAS_92]

The video is quite descriptive. @Patrick Boyle: But how to act now as an investor? Correct that there is basically nowhere to hide from this environment, given basically all asset classes are suffering?

[@DAS_92]

@TextMe十⓵⓹⓵⓹⓸⓽⓷⓶⓽⓼⓹ Fraud 😜

[@seeky907]

I've never lost more money than trying to hedge inflation. Precious metals, oil, fertilizer, steel, bitcoin. All these trades went against me and stopped me out.

[@JoelChenFa]

Bitcoin? what has bitcoin got to do with inflation hedging? Might as well buy sports cars.

[@johnsmith2956]

How did you trade steel? Long Steel stocks, or are there futures?

[@everythingallin4905]

You only lost if you sold.

[@gigante87]

@@johnsmith2956 future contracts mature. You have to close out your positions.

[@jonahfeldman7812]

there is no such thing as a short term inflation hedge. the reason is that if people fear inflation those asset prices will get bid up so high that they are overvalued and even as inflation is raging may be declining in value. Long term many assets serve as hedges against inflation but none of them do short term unless bonds are giving real positive yields.

[@doyouwantsli9680]

It's inflation on everything except wages..... So, just a scam

[@spotify_ERROR404]

😃 thank you Mr. Boyle #goodluck 2023 .

[@michelew2191]

Food shortages: the man made crisis of pulling the rug out from under farmers as seen in Sri Lanka. You can't go from using synthetic fertilizers to organic or all natural methods over night. It takes years and different techniques entirely to rehab soil and create a sustainable system. A couple flicks of the pen at a law-makers desk doesn't solve that problem--it's a years long logistical nightmare to make this change at scale. It has to be addressed that way if the end goal is getting off petro-based fertilizers without creating famine.

[@1MarmadukeFan]

KZbin puts ads in a lot of your mid sentences. You might want to put ads at the beginning and end of your videos because they’re quality enough to watch all the way through. Ad experience is interrupting your flow of thought.

[@Shannon_Vlogs]

Wow I feel like I am gonna have to watch this again to really absorb everything but I appreciate the info-packed video! Thanks!

[@donchan6235]

Kindly upload your valuable inputs on Asian economies/markets.

[@Beliefish]

hi Patrick any thoughts on ECB/EU situation?

[@MrGRZEGORZL]

One of the most imporant videos I’ve seen in 2022. I recommend to watch it at least twice!

[@davidshannon5877]

I'm showing my age when I remember its predecessor, the BZW Gilt/Equity Study, being produced ever year. A must-have, if somewhat weighty, tome which where I worked we distilled into one side of A4 paper. Bonds, we pretty much ignored as we were primarily equity focussed (and if we held them we did so on an until redemption basis) so we compared cash vs equities but also added on what political party was in office at the time. A very simple but effective tool to put forward the case for investing in equities over the longer term.

[@geoffreycharles6330]

What's equity? Like bonds, but on the private market?

[@mystomachhurt9312]

Stock