Jack Bogle: How to Tell if the Stock Market is Overvalued (Rare Interview)

Jack Bogle talks about how to tell if the stock market is overvalued. Bogle is the founder of Vanguard, one of the leading investing firms focused on passive and index fund investing. He is the author of several books including The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. This interview took place in 2017.
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[@InvestorCenter]

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[@karsynmayson3687]

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[@brycedevon5547]

@Karsyn Mayson instablaster =)

[@karsynmayson3687]

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[@karsynmayson3687]

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[@brycedevon5547]

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[@seanburke4421]

I've had Vanguard's s&p 500 17 years I promised myself I would never touch/cash in . It's incredible the power/miracle of compounding thankyou Jack

[@adarshshetty2687]

It's not Timing the market but Time in the Market that counts.

[@InvestorCenter]

One of the most important things investors need to remember

[@golfer977]

Not always true if you’re investing in hype bubble stocks for years and watch it all tank and never return, such as 2000

[@samsun01]

did you live through the dotcom bubble?

[@golfer977]

@@samsun01 yes I did

[@samsun01]

@@golfer977 very nice (in hindsight). your quote was insightful, was curious if you had the rich experience to back it up.

[@chuckdiezel7652]

Don’t do something, just stand there!

[@InvestorCenter]

That is a good way to put it!

[@dynamo3059]

assumes you're broadly diversified. if your in risky penny stocks or some shit that's a good way to lose everything. or the idiots who bought and held gme at $450

[@migueleduardo6297]

Bogle was very inteligent , had a lot to say about stock market, a pity his gone

[@Je.rone_]

"Buy index funds that track the market" Everything John bogle has ever says in a nutshell😂

[@InvestorCenter]

Bogle has been pretty consistent with his messaging haha

[@Showmetheevidence-]

@@InvestorCenter He didn’t die poor... just saying.

[@joonpak]

Isn’t that essentially what Buffett says?

[@vtheb1299]

And he's been right always

[@BadWeatherfreak]

Yeap. Put your money on VTI it tracks the whole market

[@pran10000]

So basically your attempt at timing the market should be tweaking your asset allocation a little bit. Anything more is a waste of time. Thanks for sharing!

[@Akshay_3099]

His voice is so young......

[@InvestorCenter]

It really does sound so young

[@Allenbass7]

Humble, yet knowledgable. (Or maybe the other way around)

[@clemfarley7257]

He was a great mind and help. Not meant as a criticism, but he got the next 6 years wrong, which he would say, were he living, that that was his point precisely. But maybe he wouldn’t. The structure or paradigm has changed with Fed intervention never seen before and money printing never seen before. So, is that sustainable? Real? No one touches those questions.

[@TDubya811]

Would like to hear his thoughts on current valuations.

[@InvestorCenter]

It would be interesting to hear that

[@anonymouswellwisher]

He is no more

[@kineahora8736]

His wisdom is missed.

[@billl1127]

PE valuations are even higher now in 2021. There are no permanent plateaus. Smart money is preparing by keeping some cash ready.

[@InvestorCenter]

We will see what happens!

[@fne1198]

No don't do that when country debt is historically high and the fed will print a ton of cash, your USD will get massively devalued. If you want dry powder use gold and crash-proof stocks. Cash and bonds are a terrible idea right now.

[@billl1127]

@@fne1198 Please share your list of "crash proof" stocks.

[@fne1198]

​@@billl1127 Right, I should have clarified that one ;) No stock is crash-proof, but a combination of many carefully selected ones can increase the probability to be among the least affected when things go down. Based on that for me that means a couple of percents in each grocery related stocks I can find that seem solid. WMT, COST, KR, P&G, JNJ, CL, KMB, etc. Some of these might go bankrupt or fall a lot, but generally people will not stop eating and washing their hair during a financial crisis. If they fall hard, just stay in there (maybe buy even more), but for those stocks that didn't it gives you an opportunity to buy massively undervalued stocks that fell really low because of crowd panic. And all the while you stayed in the market, because going in cash would be the stupidest thing to do. But if you also have some GLD, then you will most likely be able to also use that gold as dry powder after the crash.

[@ArtHoward]

@@fne1198 Just learned the term for this. They're called "defensive stocks" (not to be confused with defense stocks).

[@korylehman79]

Thank you so much for bringing us this video, Investor Center

[@InvestorCenter]

Thank you for watching!

[@jb6879]

he's the nicest Sith Lord i've ever seen..

[@219garry]

His investing style is considered by many to be UNNATURAL.

[@milkismurder]

Have you heard the comedy of darth bogle the wise?

[@InvestingwithKurt]

"Invest you must"

[@InvestorCenter]

Such a classic Bogle quote

[@InvestingwithKurt]

@@InvestorCenter yes, to me it was one of the fundamental messages Bogle was trying to get across before you even discuss the how, what, allocation, etc.

[@pnkrckmom]

"Never ever get out of the market."

[@InvestorCenter]

That’s important advice that people need to hear, especially right now

[@pnkrckmom]

@@InvestorCenter Yes, but I can't tell you how freaked out I was during the early part of 2020 with the first round of lockdowns. I KNEW what it would do to the economy, but as a "newish" investor, I was scared! Especially when more experienced people around me were saying, "I moved all my money to more conservative places." Ugh. Well, I'm happy to say that not only did I "stay the course," I added 2k hoping to capitalize on the downturn and get stocks on sale. Sadly, I think I added it too soon, but whatever. I'm still in and didn't sell or move anything!!! That's huge for me.

[@Showmetheevidence-]

Ok, so how do I ever “make money” then? If I only ever bought shares and never sold, when do you ever benefit from this investing?

[@MeMe-wz5hv]

@@Showmetheevidence- you live off the returns from your investments. You accumulate enough wealth to withdraw Dividends + growth and live on that.

[@karmathebrit7856]

I wouldn’t say never get out. If you can see incoming turmoil and huge drops in value ahead, you definitely could double your portfolio by selling and then rebuying at a discount. It’s what a lot of people did in January. Never get out and stay out ;) haha.

[@fredatlas4396]

I agree with John Bogle but I think he could have warned people about how risky bonds can really be, considering that they'd been in over 30 year bull market for bonds. Ultra low interest rates for yrs, bond prices very high.

[@dakotah3043]

This is a gem 💎

[@InvestorCenter]

Bogle is one of my favorite investors!

[@jaeminkim8364]

Great video

[@InvestorCenter]

Glad you enjoyed it. Thank you for watching!

[@joschkahurst]

Jack Vangard Bogle what a great American

[@Showmetheevidence-]

Um. Is it when Tesla is at 1800:1 P/E. lol.

[@samsun01]

@@d3ly51d dotcom bubble crash happened when entire market P/E was at 30

[@investwitheleni1008]

thanks for sharing!

[@InvestorCenter]

Thank you for watching!

[@indexplus]

Was jan 13, 2021 the day this video was uploaded or the day the interview happened? I wish all videos had both dates clarified

[@loveandpeace8760]

Read the description. 2017.

[@10010x0x0x01101XX0X1]

it would be amazing if this video was made in 2021 given the fact that jack bogle died in 2019

[@therighteous802]

What he did not consider at the time is that the printer goes brrrrrrrrrrr.

[@eh7599]

Great mind

[@RamalhoIO]

Legend.

[@morninginvest4520]

ḭnvest in çryptó trading with my administrative Edward Bickel

[@morninginvest4520]

His availability is on ωhātsäpp

[@LazyWay-m1w]

Before Jack died he said he hoped he didn't create a monster with these index funds. They were never meant for EVERYONE to put all their money in.

[@Mozzos]

well this interview was in 2017 and he thought going into a bear market and low returns for a while. The market has boomed and still sky rocketing. Insanity.

[@Random-ne3ed]

He got the "speculative return" wrong. He thought stock valuations would go back down to 16-18 PE. Instead stock valuations have shot up to 30 PE and a black swan event in 2020 made the fed bloat the money supply which jacked it up even further as people pumped that money into Tech stocks. If you look at the SP493 just outside of the magnificent 7 alone the market has been FLAT since covid.

[@rajvo7406]

1:30..... the market has nominally doubled since

[@rajvo7406]

7:30 - 4% yearly return in next decade. This is a 2017 video

[@LazyWay-m1w]

Investing in stocks isn't the same for everyone. Your age is very important. You don't wanna be all in stocks when you retire in case a crash happens right when you retire.

[@holdruss6197]

Hmm 3-4 years ago

[@InvestorCenter]

Stocks have gone up a lot since then 😂

[@Skilliard]

@@InvestorCenter bond yields have also gone down a lot since then

[@mrkinetic]

He did say never get out of the market

[@liammullan2197]

He could not have been more wrong. The S&P 500 has returned ~140% in ~7 years since this interview!

[@BIGGOODBOY]

He says but Bitcoin

[@WarrenBuffettDividend]

“If you’ve got a billion dollars and you’re ungrateful, you’re a poor man. If you have very little but you’re grateful for what you have, you’re truly rich.” Sir John Templeton

[@InvestorCenter]

That is such a great quote from an investing legend

[@diseasefire]

If you are indexing as he suggests you should never even pay attention to the market. If you are a value investor you will end up accumulating cash in times like these for lack of opportunities

[@diseasefire]

@@alicesmith1016 sure man

[@InvestorCenter]

That was a scammer. It is only me if there is a grey bar next to my name to show it is actually this channel.

[@diseasefire]

@@InvestorCenter oh thanks for the heads up

[@alessandroalessandro3216]

Quindi stai dicendo che negli anni detenendo un fondo indicizzato anche se ci sono periodi di crisi nel lungo termine si va in positivo.Giusto?

[@diseasefire]

@@alessandroalessandro3216 assolutamente si :) però bisogna avere grande determinazione per trattenersi dal vendere quando le cose vanno male.

[@zeerakkhan7806]

Sorry, but since 2017 (last 4 years) if you invested wisely in stocks, you should have yielded better than 20% annually! If you had invested in S&P500 it alone your annual yield would be better than 10%. In line with historic trends. Almost half way through the next decade (from the date of this interview) Jeff’s analysis seems to be off track. He doesn’t seem to account for the revolutionary technology developments which have been driving the markets forward .....yes there is a tech bubble after Covid but that doesn’t detract from the long term growth due to revolutions in tech and the market

[@rexmundi273]

Valuations always return to their fair value.

[@zeerakkhan7806]

@@rexmundi273 that is true, but only after a new innovation based company has fully grown, and evolved to full maturity, which might take decades to settle into a stable valuation. All that growth meanwhile is profit.

[@HeySenthil]

That's because the government is printing money. Never happened at this scale. The market is artificially propped up. Heard this same argument in dotcom bubble. There's is no doubt we are in a bubble... when it will burst is the question. Longer the bubble goes on, more we are close to lost decade. Hedge your bets

[@zeerakkhan7806]

@@HeySenthil you are correct as well, however putting the post Covid bubble aside for a moment (note that jacks interview is from 2017 before the Covid bubble , and almost half way through his prediction for the next decade), if you look at the radical change which will be brought about by genetic technologies, AI, Quantum computing, space technologies, materials and communication technologies etc., the impact to societies from these developments will be great, as well as disruptive to the existing businesses and revenue models. Investment in these sectors will generate growth which is mutually exclusive of any bubbles. But I take your point about printing money and the lost decade broadly speaking

[@zeerakkhan7806]

@@HeySenthil and didn’t the dot com bubble turn to real growth driven by internet technology companies such as google, Amazon and Apple after the bubble burst?

[@missflora8882]

His most important words "Trees don't grow to the sky".. There is a limit to everything but no limit to making money. We need limited capitalism.

[@jumbojet8]

Thats not what he means by that.