Lithium Stocks Are Getting More & More Interesting...

Lithium stocks are getting more and more interesting as those keep crashing but demand for lithium keeps growing as EVs are still in demand. There will always be ups and downs but that is normal with commodities and cyclicals. Here is my take.
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[@linegoesup-tl1hq]

for people concerned about other battery types, solid state are years away still maybe 2027, and sodium batteries are alot heavier than lithium and wont be used for everything. Vanadium batteries are too big and will be used for grid storage mostly. So lithium batteries will definetly be the midway technology we have until 2027 -2030. Used for our personal devices, EVs , aerospace. but again, do your own research into the technologies to decide

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@SigFigNewton]

That’s not my primary battery-advancements concern. Progress is so fast that lithium needed per lithium ion vehicle could conceivably halve before the number of new lithium ion vehicles being sold doubles. I’m very much not an expert, feel free to update me on expectations of future demand per vehicle

[@yufachan6712]

It was your previous video about lithium companies led me found your channel. I agree with your thesis that this industry is approaching Lynch’s cyclical stock buying range. Bets down, let’s see how it rolls out in the coming 3 years

[@jasonalexander7089]

What critical buying? Everything other than the mega caps just get attacked and vampired by short sellers now. Government by the people!!!

[@SigFigNewton]

I’m long but also “concerned” about how quickly batteries are advancing. If lithium ion vehicle sales double… but lithium per such vehicle halves over the same time frame… that’s a zero percent increase in lithium demand.

[@SigFigNewton]

Same can be said for the strong future demand for batteries to store solar etc

[@paulbradford3927]

Thanks for the video. Great to see you reacting to my requests!

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@sjoerdpeeters3797]

I think the biggest risk over the long term for lithium is if there are more efficient batteries developed and used which involves no lithium

[@thetonymontanya]

very much agree. sodium batteries etc. my understanding however is that lithium is the only compound currently capable of being used in the size of battery that a car would need. the edge of tech rn is in the design of the battery (as far as large applications). stacks vs coils etc, all still using lithium as the main alkaloid

[@Value-Investing]

yep, you never know with tech

[@Among_T_P]

Agree but there is no any other battery can replace lithium for now.. especially for EV

[@danielfarrell3534]

​@thetonymontanya as far as I'm aware sodium batteries are just too heavy for vehicles other than large trucks.

[@aptibabayt]

I was waiting for this video. Thanks Sven!

[@Value-Investing]

Hope you enjoyed it!

[@herokorai8346]

Your style and personality fits well with cyclical type of investments (value trading style, trigger happy on selling). I agree with your strategy but not for me at this time. I only buy cyclicals when its 1 - really compelling (trading less liquidation value, reasonable balance sheet, etc.), 2 - there are no other opportunities to buy quality companies with high ROE/ROIC, moat, etc. at a discount. Right now, there are still quality companies trading between 10-15x forward cashflows. 3 - there is a clear pathway to turnaround (Peter Lynch mentioned this in a conference). If you go in blindly without enough MOS, you can get stuck for years.

[@jasonalexander7089]

I think anything other than mega caps just get attacked by short sellers now. Look at wba today. I thought this would be a good value investment and I lost more on wba than even shorting the dow Jones with sdow.

[@matmaism]

It doesn't make sense to be too dogmatic. You would be extremely fortunate to see Alb drop 30% from here to meet your criteria, likely only on full blown recession panic. There is still demand growth and a reversal of rates is going to send it higher.

[@hurlentropy6866]

I'm loading on ALB. We are in a recession. A local one

[@user-yd8wp8rz2b]

Still holding and waiting for ALTM to recover.

[@zacktube100]

I remember reading maybe the Morning Star evaluation in Schwab of ALB that lithium starts to become unprofitable below $15k / meter ton and it's at $12.8k now so production should slow. Morning Star for the longest time has had ALB as a five stars and price target of $275, which was $300 before shares were diluted.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@elrevesyelderecho]

8:25 Thanks. It sounds like Christmas arrives early this year to me. Looking forward to read the full reports later on to start buying

[@arnaldopacheco6335]

Seeing miners like Albemarle or SQM at -70% is a blessing. Bought them today and hope to buy the rest when they are at -75% and expect 5x in the next 2 years

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@TuanAnhNguyen-ie4nr]

Alb is at $79, is it a buy now?

[@javiermaol]

Thanks a lot Sven for your videos! Your channel has a huge quality for ideas and value investing approach. I would kindly suggest you to analyse in a future video nickel productor (if it is ok for you, if not, no problem). Nickel and lithium go down this year and I think both commodities will go up in the medium term. Kind regards for a Spanish value investor.

[@AugustoIacobucci]

$Altm 🚀

[@KonstantinosSiachras]

Another awesome video. I had already bought a few Albemarle stocks as a tracker. So i guess i need little more patience :)

[@simonweiguny]

Regarding China: did you ever look at Ganfeng Lithium?

[@ASMR-Economics]

Hi Sven, could you make an updated version of your Extrimistan and Mediocristan video? That is the one that made me discover your channel and made me a lot of profits over the years! Thanks Sven, re reading your book at the moment

[@RezzGaming]

Didn't you say arcadium lithium was already a buy before it fell 35%?

[@markus_bit.]

No he didn't. Go and watch the video from back then carefully..

[@Nimsiv]

When Sven says buy, he follows it with, be ready to buy more if it goes lower. That’s how you invest

[@erikm9768]

Yes, it could probably fall another 50% who knows... and who knows what will happen with litium in EV batteires in 3 years. not a sane investment.

[@RezzGaming]

@@Nimsiv He said he was following it, and a buy below 8 b marketcap. It is at a 3.85 b marketcap, 'how is now only get interesting'?

[@gabrielalmeida6199]

He did, yes, I also understood him this way. But do you think that's a bad thing? If someone wants to sell you a pound of gold for 1$, do you get mad when the price goes further down to 0.50$ or do you buy even more?

[@augustus331]

One thing I want to add is that sodium ion batteries and lithium alternatives are heavily invested in by China and other major powers. Sodium ion is not feasible yet for most applications, but as it’s much more prevalent and environmentally responsible than lithium-ion batteries, you can be assured that once it’s feasible it will be a big competitor of lithium. And it will compete with lithium as a superior material. Edit: Lithium might however be more suitable for grid-scale battery storage solutions. The focus would in my view be too narrow to only consider the EV market for battery material companies.

[@matmaism]

By the time they are feasible, solid states batteries are likely to exist - then you're back to lithium at the core of it

[@augustus331]

@@matmaism It's very hard to assess TRLs years down the line, we tend to believe it when someone like Musk says "technology x is ready in 2 years", but it is usually non-predictable as developing new technologies and implementing them into existing systems is extremely diffcult. I work in the energy transition and face this stuff every day.

[@pettirosso252]

REMX etf is down 63% from the peak of 2022. Perhaps could be useful to check its components and if it can be an attractive alternative for diversification

[@SomeGuy-ws5zj]

I am buying LAC My minimum metric Fibo target 🎯 is 1.8 USD. It's near.

[@investingtips2957]

What you think about Glencore ?

[@dexterhatchet3529]

thanks Sven, great info again!

[@LDP..]

We know energy demand is going to rise hugely due to the AI revolution and renewable energy storage. Lithium prices therefore will rise as the production will reach a certain limit

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@andypicken7848]

Very interesting. Thanks for posting

[@Lucastos311]

Captiulation today? 8/14 ? Cpi 2.9% exp. 3.0% confirm at least .25 cut in september. Feels like a bottom today.

[@mars10550lauren]

THANK YOU FOR THIS VIDEO

[@z704w40]

Big risk for lithium stocks is the technology change to Sodium batteries.

[@danielfarrell3534]

Problem with Na batteries is they're too bulky and heavy compared to the Li chem based batteries for most cars. They'll only be useful for the smallest (intracity cars) or the largest of vehicles (big ass trucks that are already heavy).

[@Albannas]

I don't understand point of investing in comodities. Nobody have competitive advantage, prices are unpredictable so all in all unpredictable businesses.

[@paulrobbo321]

Sadly very true, the smart money trades these things, oil, copper and every other commodity is essentially just a short term trade. Trying to own these things and not being an out and out specialist will leave you behind the curve and that’s before you get to the company specific risk. These are miners with the added risk of a uncertain market. Price is the only thing that means anything with these things, anything is just a punt

[@Value-Investing]

cost of production is the advantage, every miner is different!

[@Albannas]

@@Value-Investing it is rats race, advantages are too small, noone have a moat. Prices are set by demand/supply and not by pricing power

[@austinollinger82]

Thanks Sven!

[@peezpeez1317]

A cyclical can turn into a dead fly very quickly. Too much uncertainty in lithium stocks. A lots of these stocks would either get merger or go burst before they see could a EV boom. It better to buy an diversified lithium eft to spread out the risk even through you get a low return than trying to pick out the winners.

[@SigFigNewton]

In mining I’d rather pick winners. Low cost of production, low cost of production, low cost of production

[@spencerblack7943]

Yes, SLB and PEMIF are very interesting

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@truncksZR]

Sven you mention recession in Europe in near future but what about US stocks and recession?

[@hammer49946]

They should have just mentioned AI in their presentation multiple times. Seems to work as of late.

[@arloc24]

I was a stay at Home mom with no money in my IRA or any savings of my own, which was scary at 53 years of age. Three years ago I got a part time job and save everything I make. After 3 years, I am 56 yo and have put $9,000 in an IRA and $40,000 in my portfolio with CFA, Evelyn Infurna. Since the goal of getting a job was to invest for retirement and NOT up my lifestyle, I was able to scale this quickly to $150,000. If I can do this in a year, anyone can.

[@NianLisa]

I know this lady you just mentioned. Evelyn Infurna Services is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as a former employee at Goldman Sachs; a renowned investor she is. Evelyn Infurna has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies n has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.

[@jeffbox1torres]

I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Evelyn Infurna. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here

[@DannielleRosales]

This is interesting. I heard a lot about the same person not long ago, please how can I contact her?

[@arloc24]

Well the name is 'Evelyn Infurna'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@arloc24]

SHE’S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS WITH THE BELOW NAME.

[@heinzyketchupy4175]

LAC ALBERMALE ARCADIUM?

[@theodoroseidler7072]

Excellent Sven

[@MilosevicOgnjan]

Don't know where you looked up the data from, but $ALTM has been profitable for quite a while according to all of the sources I can find. Don't know if that is the data for the merged company or just Alkem / Livent?

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing, and yes, they have been profitable, but lithium prices dropped recently and contract renew at the new price

[@MilosevicOgnjan]

​@@Value-Investing I've listened to a recent interview with Paul Graves (CEO) and he was pretty reassuring in that they will remain profitable even at these prices. Also, looking at the most recent delivery data from major EV manufacturers (Tesla, BYD, Li-Auto, Xpeng, etc.), it seems that the market is recovering quite well. Add the booming of the power storage industry to that and we could very well see a recovery of the lithium prices in the relatively near future.

[@davidhidalgo8465]

Although global automotive companies are cutting back their EV investments, it’s a no brainer to know that the electrification of the automotive industry is here to stay

[@rudain]

You and ALB highlight that Chinese demand is growing in China, but how are the Chinese impacting lithium supply in China? I'm hearing that China wants lithium prices to remain low

[@yuriyivanov]

Hi Sven. Thanks for work you do. Can you do some analysis on Uranium stocks. I open the position on Kazatomprom . I think nuclear power is the solution in green energy. I’m planning to add from Canada and Australia uranium companies. Is interesting to see your view. Thanks again

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for suggesting!

[@tomkoelmans4859]

Hey Sven, I really enjoy your content. I have one question however on your Incentives as a contrnt creator (since you often talk about the importance of management incentives). I was wondering if you could share roughly the percentage of your income that comes from the KZbin video compared with your research platform? It would help put the information you share into context for me. If you're not willing to share this I totally understand. Keep up the good content, I am learning a lot about investing!

[@MJHarris93]

He donates the KZbin profits to charity

[@HenningYT]

Not a battery expert but sodium-ion batteries look quite promising. I am not going to invest in Lithium stocks for the foreseeable future. Thank you for the video.

[@jasonalexander7089]

We don't need batteries because we have ai.

[@matmaism]

They have low energy density and are nowhere near commercially feasible, by the time they are solid state batteries are likely to exist, will be exponentially better and back to using lithium.

[@hurlentropy6866]

Lol. Much less efficient. Still need lithium for nuclear reactions etc

[@tamanousJP]

My lithium miner position is down but I’m continuing to load up. Long term it should be a good play. At the end of the day there is no replacement for chemistry element 3, and battery demand will continue to rise as battery tech continues to improve.

[@paolovita1720]

The question is: how long is long term? And how many bankruptcies will have to happen till then?

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@brendansmith7842]

Hello Sven, Walgreens has been cut in half since your last video not recommending it on earnings. Any thoughts at this price? I see it is trading at a 4 pe now.

[@providencez9496]

It's going towards bankruptcy starting few years back. Get over this name and move on. Unless they managed to prove they are able to turn around

[@Value-Investing]

why now?

[@dredoctor8271]

Chile sits on a hughe deposits of lithium, the biggest in the world. Same for uranium for cleaner energy sources, Kazachstan has the biggest uranium deposit. For both countries the problem stays, how do they utilize lithium properly to produce batteries or enrich uranium. Furthermore which developed country is willing to further invest billions, which is already certain of that money will be lost. What will these developing countries do. Do they wait, until demand is much higher or are they willing to coporate for being ethic and seeing a brighter future and a cleaner world.

[@danielfarrell3534]

Rumour is SQM in Chile may be nationalised or at least government subsidised in some way so they at least believe in it.

[@matteoperini19]

Hi Sven. Can you comment on how rigid is the supply for lithium?

[@Value-Investing]

they have so much cash from the last two years, thus....

[@HossamaldinAbdulhady]

Should we start a small position now.¿

[@Value-Investing]

depends on your strategy

[@marjanpavlovski]

@Hellofresh stock. What do you think about it?

[@Value-Investing]

don't know, haven't analysed

[@p.mortez9574]

Lithium is the kind of stuff which can still get a heavy haircut in the next 2 years, then "moon" 400-600% after being the most hated stuff around.

[@Value-Investing]

:-))))

[@Kimdavid109]

AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.

[@Lettyogle]

I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.

[@gracegomez109]

No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.

[@liuyanli]

Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.

[@gracegomez109]

BONITA JEANETTE RODRIGUEZ is who i work with and she is a hot topic even among financial elitist. Just browse, you’d find her, thank me later.

[@liuyanli]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks

[@viktorianas]

Are you relative to Oleksandr Usyk? The eyeline looks so similar to me...

[@Value-Investing]

haha, no, but I punch equally :-))))

[@viktorianas]

@@Value-Investing what concerns value stocks, you really punch above your weight indeed! 💪

[@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__]

Now do Uranium...literally the opposite on all points.

[@davidkoba]

How many lithium stocks are exposed to china? China is a big no no for me.

[@Value-Investing]

60% of demand!

[@davidkoba]

@@Value-Investing Yikes lol

[@pawelwielki6841]

He he he . You was so very optimistic for JDE Peets and today is 40 % less and look at your movie how this company should be very good 😂

[@AliasAchie]

Completely missed the mark. it is becoming far worse. Lithium is finished for the coming 1-2 years. "Lithium carbonate prices fell to CNY 80,000 per tonne in August, the lowest in over three years, amid increasing concerns of oversupply. Lithium miners and producers continued to expand capacity and hunt for new reserves, with market players expecting global supply to soar by nearly 50% this year. This magnifies the current supply surplus amid the fallout of battery gluts due to government subsidies for firms across the supply chain. Additionally, hopes of eventual balance in the market drove Chile to signal it would aim to double output over the next decade. Further adding to the bearish pressure, the EU put barriers on Chinese EV producers with tariffs of up to 38% in response to subsidies-supported dumping starting this week. The measures added to sweeping tariffs from the US, which quadrupled duties on Chinese EVs to 100%, pushing against input materials for battery producers. This contributed to the 15% drop monthly drop in Chinese new energy vehicle exports in June."

[@microeconomics6725]

Renegotiation of longstanding precedent may be in order if BRICS style revalance of power occurs, leading to jurisdictional jubilee, possibly, ad in case of French disposession in Niger of Uranium, down to Mexico and others renegotiating for what some will argue are more fair processes. This includes processing ore to higher stages in country of origin, considered a violation of free trade, yet argued to be the only way to 'move up the supply chain,' a competition unwanted against by established manufacturers, refiners, & processors. Yesterday Bolivia suffered an attempted coup, with some commentators noting this attempted coup follows attendence at San Pedro International Economic Forum as well as a deal of some kind for LITHIUM with China. Trump said to say Mexico-China autos will be ruinous for US autos. Let's have no war and all governments plant fruit trees to feed everyone.

[@vicpetrovich6266]

Bla bla bla…. Mondays experts .!

[@backyardbandit8193]

Why did these Chinese companies bid against each other for lithium, pushing the price to $80,000 a tonne, if they knew it would come down 80% in 18 months time? How did their purchasing divisions within these companies all be so wrong with their price forecasts?

[@Value-Investing]

lithium is not such a big cost of a car, thus if it is 1000 or 2000 per car ...

[@backyardbandit8193]

@@Value-Investing I would have thought since a Tesla is getting made every 20 seconds that would add up significantly? No?

[@paolovita1720]

Personally, I think that the lithium cycle will take much, much longer to play out. We just entered the downturn now, give it another 2 or 3 years at the very least. There is so much growth already committed into the lithium supply, that we need to see some bankruptcies before the cycle turns.

[@Value-Investing]

I see it like that too, but you never know how and when!

[@oleonard7319]

no the lithium miners will bottom. When the larger integrated miners start looking at buying them out. it's hard to imagine a single commodity miner can survive on it's own long term

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@Alen1984]

Sven was pumping alibaba when the stock was $300 I think he needs you tube to stay alive because his investment pics are terrible.

[@Value-Investing]

I feel sorry for you, if you have a problem with me of all the things in life. Hope you find your happiness!

[@Alen1984]

I have nothing against anyone. I am simply a student trying to learn about finances and investing. So sometimes I will call on some you tubers that go online talking like they are experts and make bad calls and some people will listen to them and lose money because of them. Anyone can open you tube channel, but only few are doing things the right way. Be very careful what you preach. And don't make people that do listen to you lose money. But I see you do sometimes admit you make bad calls, and that's fair. Best of luck.

[@cbliddell]

Hydrogen is about to blow the heck out of lithium. Don't miss the next big thing.

[@Value-Investing]

could be...

[@happyt6493]

Nope.

[@Kig_Ama]

13 mins of talk saying nothing.

[@Value-Investing]

it is about the listener :-)

[@Kig_Ama]

@@Value-Investing Maybe, but maybe you're just scared, be a bit braver and take a clearer stance instead of pussyfooting around. ;)

[@Ravencroft81]

I read Lithium may have put in a bottom but there wont be any new highs for 5-6 years. Lithium is like graphene stocks fe. nanoxplore and nouveau monde graphite, overpromising and underperforming. For some reason the biggest graphene companies are private. 🤔

[@SigFigNewton]

Well if you take on every opinion you read you should never buy individual stocks

[@SigFigNewton]

You should take on the market’s opinion of correct price

[@Ravencroft81]

@@SigFigNewton No, the opinion was explained and justified with a thesis. It's up to you to agree or not to agree.

[@SigFigNewton]

@@Ravencroft81 if you’re going to adopt every opinion that is explained and justified with data, you shouldn’t bet on individual stocks

[@SigFigNewton]

@@Ravencroft81 I’ll only buy a specific company if I understand clearly-intelligent arguments against buying it