IRELAND | Could It Really Reunify?

In May 2022, Sinn Féin won a hugely symbolic victory in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections. This has led to growing speculation that we could well be about to see the unification of the island of Ireland. But just how likely is it that we could be on the cusp of Irish unity?
Hello and welcome! My name is James Ker-Lindsay. Here I take an informed look at International Relations with a focus on territorial conflicts, secession, independence movements and new countries. If you like what you see, please do subscribe. If you want more, including exclusive content and benefits, consider becoming a channel member. Many thanks!
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Ireland has had a long and troubled history. Starting in the twelfth century it came under increasing English and then British dominance. This not only saw protest Anglo-Irish land-owning class emerge, but also the arrival of protestant settlers in the north of the island, an area known as Ulster. While Ireland was united with Great Britain in the nineteenth century, pressure grew for home rule. In 1919, the Irish War of Independence erupted. Two years later, in 1921, Britain decided to partition the island. While Ulster would remain a part of the UK, the rest would become independent as the Irish Free State, a self-ruling British Dominion. This would formally become a republic in 1949, but continued to claim the north. Meanwhile, an armed campaign to unite the two parts under the sovereignty of the Irish Republic emerged, led by the Provisional Irish Republican Army, the IRA. This led to violence between the largely protest Unionists, who want to the Northern Ireland remain a part of the United Kingdom, and nationalists, who want to see Ireland reunified. However, while the Good Friday Agreement out an end to violence in 1998, unification has been hard to achieve given the protestant dominance in the North. But is this changing?
CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
0:34 The Question of Irish Unification
1:31 Background to Ireland and Northern Ireland
2:34 A History of Ireland and Partition
4:09 The Troubles and the Belfast Agreement
6:01 Ireland After the Good Friday Agreement
7:27 Why Irish Unification Looks Possible
9:32 Why Irish Unification Is Still Hard
11:16 Irish Concerns about Unification
12:39 Will We Soon See a United Ireland?
RELATED PLAYLISTS
Current Issues and Disputes • CURRENT ISSUES AND DIS...
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FURTHER READING & USEFUL SOURCES
Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement assets.publishing.service.gov...
YouGov UK and Northern Ireland yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/...
Lord Ashcroft Polls (2018) lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06...
Northern Ireland Protocol assets.publishing.service.gov...
Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland
Final Report www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-un...
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KEYWORDS
#Ireland #NorthernIreland #Unification
#InternationalPolitics #CurrentAffairs #InternationalRelations
#Secession #Statehood #Independence
#InternationalLaw #InternationalHistory
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[@JamesKerLindsay]

This is one of those issues that I have wanted to cover for ages, but it is obviously extremely controversial. So, do you think Irish unification is coming, and when? One thing that I tend to find really interesting is how people will often try to upset or troll me by saying that they hope Ireland unifies. It's actually quite amusing. It doesn't upset me at all. Like the vast majority of British, I really, really don't care. If that is what people want, then I will be happy for them. By the way, I actually have English, Scottish, West and Irish - North and South - ancestry. I happy with them all working together. But I'm equally happy with them all in their own states. (Well, maybe not England - but that's for another day.) As long as they can all get on well. So before anyone thinks they'll upset me by saying this, watch the video and you'll see what I mean. :-)

[@scozc1]

Doubt it. Coming from a dub

[@merocaine]

Why would people troll you about that? Quite sad. It's telling that you say you really really have no opinion about Irish unification, part of the reason the Irish question has lingered on for so long is the abdication of responsibly on the part of the British establishment, as long as it wasn't exploding it could be safely ignored. I lived in England for a number of years, the ignorence of general public about Ireland was shocking to me considering our close and shared history.

[@riiitch]

I'm intrigued by your opinion about England not being its own state, if I've understood correctly. Perhaps another video down the line? I'm happy with the union. I'd prefer to stick together. That said, I'd rather be friendly neighbours than in a unhappy union, if that's how all parts of the UK felt. Sadly virtually nothing was ever taught about the UK's relationship with Ireland when I was at school. Such a shame, for all the horrible history, I can absolutely respect Ireland as a sovereign nation and at the same time feel like we're family - a connection that is influenced by the geography of these islands rather than politics.

[@live_free_or_perish]

I can't answer that without know specifically what the unionists are concerned about. Is it about practical matters or purely ideological? Practical concerns can be resolved but it's an emotional opposition there isn't much that can be don.

[@deusexaethera]

Not if the UK can help it. The UK government is incredibly stubborn about putting any of its citizens in a position where they would have to choose between moving or changing nationality. It didn't even let go of the Falklands after they got invaded; what makes you think they'd let go of a much closer, much more populated territory without something verging on nuclear war?

[@ahamill130]

As someone who lives in NI, can I just say how well James has covered most of the major issues. The main pertinent points are covered, and covered with the kind of nuance that reflects the complexities on the ground here. This is quality staff. The only thing I'd add is the rise of the middle ground here over the past few elections. As James rightly says, the Sinn Féin vote hasn't really increased in the 2022 election; their new positions reflects as much the fragmentation of the Unionist vote (in particular the votes the DUP lost to the more right wing TUV). The big change in terms of vote share has been with the non-aligned Alliance Party. It has more than doubled its number of seats in the Assembly and is now the third biggest party. This significance of this is that its this non-aligned middle ground that will hold the balance of power in any future border poll. And this group is less entrenched in terms of national identity - they will more likely be swung by economic, social & cultural issues. That leaves us here with three main communities, not two. That's one of the major developments recently and will have significant implications here moving forward.

[@ems7623]

I was thinking just earlier of when Alliance set out and how much they struggled for votes. I hope you're right that they are here to stay now.

[@calibvr]

@@ems7623 they're atrocious, disgusting

[@jacksynth271]

Do you think the division in the unionist camp is helpful? Disillusioned hardliners being pushed further into the fringes which in turn will inevitably be the nail in their coffins. The DUP are stumbling from one calamitous decision into the next and everytime Sammy Wilson opens his mouth I cry with laughter. Bobby Sands was right all them years ago

[@christopherdickinson9265]

What ramifications do you think that has for power sharing in NI?

[@ahamill130]

@@christopherdickinson9265 it does call into question some of the arrangements of the GFA, that were necessary a quarter of a century ago, but now seem much less relevant. Most notably the idea that parties must designate as unionist, nationalist or other - but with the favouring of the first two in terms of the first minister office. Can the mandatory coalition required by the GFA ever work? Parties put together by mandate rather than an agreed programme for government? Is it now time for reform, for a debate about what a more grown up version of government might look here? But there's no appetite for that probably, especially from those who feel that change is likely to weaken their current position. So the real influence of it is probably more in the cultural shift it reflects - and the symbolism it represents for those with eyes to see moving forward. As I said above, it's this middle ground that will decide any future border poll here. So the smart strategic move for any party with an eye on winning must surely be to appeal to this group? Though not all politicians here seem able to think strategically that far ahead...!

[@dmcg6074]

Scottish independence is more likely than Irish unity right now, but if that happened it would accelerate Irish unity more

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Good point. I remember sitting next to a *very* senior Ulster unionist at lunch a number of years ago. He said that Scotland and NI are tied to each other. If one goes, the other will follow. The questions was which would be the first to leave the Union?

[@finnthewestiefinnmccool5916]

Scotland will never be let go independent by England, not until they find another base for trident and that’s impossible.

[@dmcg6074]

@@finnthewestiefinnmccool5916 If they could blow £39 billion on ppe they can't use, then they can relocate trident and all that come with that.

[@finnthewestiefinnmccool5916]

@@dmcg6074 it’s not the money which is the problem although the amount of public money being channeled to private firms / individuals is scary - it is the location which they lack. Belfast lough -as dear Sammy Wilson offered? Not deep enough - too close to a neutral country. Wales? The French side? Simply impossible to relocate it anywhere.

[@jaythompson5102]

@@finnthewestiefinnmccool5916 I'm not very knowledgeable on this issue but couldn't Scotland lease the space to the UK? One would assume that they would be under the UKs nuclear umbrella so it seems like a win-win.

[@FredoRockwell]

Great video! I really admire your ability to neatly encapsulate 500 years of Irish history in a few minutes! I think Brexit has set Ireland on an inevitable course towards unification - the only questions are how long will it take and what form will the end result take? If the British government reneges on the Northern Irish Protocol, as seems likely at the moment, I think this could accelerate the process. A trade war between the UK and the EU would be painful for all of the UK ,but would have to be devastating to the economy of Northern Ireland. Ultimately, the economic case for NI being in the EU will be too strong. The irony is, the groups which will likely ultimately drive the unification of Ireland are not the IRA and Sinn Fein, but the British Conservative Party and the Democratic Ulster Party!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Fredo. This was one of those videos I had wanted to do for ages, but had always been a little hesitant to take on. (Israel and Palestine is another topic I tread very cautiously over!) But I think you are absolutely right. Brexit has really changed the entire calculation. I have always said that when the full history of Brexit comes to be written the DUP will emerge as the utter idiots of the story. The Conservatives don't actually care about NI that much - if at all. That's the sad thing. The people who most dislike Brexit are the ones who probably feel most genuinely positive about having NI in the union, and having the UK in the EU. That's why I wanted to put the Brexit vs NI poll in there. Brexit really is about English nationalism.

[@FredoRockwell]

@@JamesKerLindsay Totally agree with you about the DUP. The total irony is that after the 2017 elections, the DUP held the balance of power in the UK Parliament. Their leader Arlene Foster had the leverage to get whatever deal she wanted. Everyone talked about what great negotiators the DUP were, and how they really squeezed everything they could from Theresa May. But in the end all they got was a bit of cash, and the total unravelling of Unionism.

[@lightfootpathfinder8218]

You make some very good points and observations. I would also say the people in Britain (perticularly England) are getting tired of the problems that are present in northern Ireland and are very aware that the province is in a large part reliant on Britain (again perticularly England) financially and economically to maintain certain services such a the NHS and the security apparatus. With the cost of living rising, a growing and ageing population and having to realign economically due to brexit Britain will eventually hand the sovereignty of northern Ireland over to the Republic due in a large part to political opinion in Britain rather than in Ireland

[@ems7623]

Well put. You might even say that in Ulster, politics have always been conducted on something of a downward spiral of self-destruction. Unionists wanted to be protected from Republicans in 1920, then they spent decades making their Catholic neighbors hate them. Republicans wanted s civil rights movement, but turned themselves into feared social pariahs through acts of terrorism, gradually losing support both at home in Ireland and abroad. Not to be outdone in the unpopularity contest, loyalists create their own paramilitaries and begin their own maiming and murdering. So, when the DUP pushes it's own voters away through terrible policy decisions in Westminster and increasingly unpopular social politics, it's no surprise. In northern Ireland, both sides have believed themselves to be fighting hard for their own self-interests, but both have always pursued this by engaging in a long game of "Who can be the most shit, cause the most problems, and earn the mosr haters?" A little dark humor ...

[@marksimons2759]

The idea was absorb the UK into the EU then strip out all its manufacturing base then UK leaves then weakens to a Portugal level country and is reabsorbed back into EU as a weak subservient nation which is why the Queen signed 7 treaties giving all sovereign magna carta rights away which would be criminal in any other time in British history.King George delayed the globalist plan as he was not trained nazi as his brother who abdicated.

[@aries23990629]

This piece is one of the best-crafted commentaries about Ireland - North and South - that I have read for many years, and I commend it to anyone who wants a well-rounded picture of the current state of affairs. I remember reading one observation by a British parliamentarian (penned in the 1920s) that HM King George V was himself convinced that Ireland would one day evolve into a unified whole; this view may well have been shared by many others at the time.

[@ronhey7013]

I think all Ireland should belong to England and then we can trade with each other for the better ,we did bal Republic out is it that they only what us for are money 💰💰 it will be better for them ,well they are being dictate by the e u Ireland is our friends well I thought so 👑🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

[@torrokasparov2210]

Very interesting and very well presented Prof. Lindsay. I am an Irishman from Northern Ireland (No religion), I also proudly hold an Irish Passport. I would certainly love to see Ireland reunited. God bless the good Irish people from both sides of the present border, which will hopefully soon be gone.

[@darnellbiggumsthe9th658]

as another irishman from the north i’m sure you know the problems here aren’t religious, realistically no one gives a fuck if you believe in god or not it’s purely down to nationality

[@fionnmcaleer4830]

Using "The North" and "Ulster" interchangably isn't correct. Great video, very unbiased 👍 Éirinn go brách 🇮🇪💚

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Fiona. Great point. A part of Ulster is indeed in the Republic. (It’s sort of shown on the map at the point where I talk about the Plantation of Ulster.) But one thing you realise when you do videos like this is that it is incredibly easy to overwhelm viewers new to a subject with too much information and clarifications. It’s always a really difficult balance. I didn’t go into the difference between Unionists/Loyalists and Nationalists/Republicans either. Or consider the rise of the Alliance Party. But hopefully it will have given a good and fair overview of the situation.

[@fionnmcaleer4830]

@@JamesKerLindsay I dont doubt that you know these things for one second but it can be a touchy subject as you can imagine 😅 Yeah, your channel is great, very fair and factual. A huge variety of topics from all over which is great too.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks! 😀 And point well taken again. Have a great rest of the weekend.

[@archvaldor]

"Using "The North" and "Ulster" interchangably isn't correct." True but the Northern Irish themselves do it and they know very well about the counties in the Republic.

[@bluerisk]

As German: good luck to Ireland!

[@DiogoF.]

I visited only once and fell in love with the country. They deserve much respect, particularly for their incredible history of intense emigration followed by tremedous prosperity and public policies of return of those expatriated. I find them very polite. 🇵🇹🇪🇺

[@mikemines2931]

UN definition of a failed state...can't hold your own populace.

[@gmon78]

Thank you 😁

[@grlfcgombeenhunter2897]

😉

[@patricklynch6547]

Thank you

[@VishnuQM]

As someone who was just in Belfast and Dublin, I absolutely loved the video! You just missed the Ulster Covenant of 1912, which is huge to understanding why the six of nine Ulster counties went to Northern Ireland.

[@joshuaguste6883]

Is there a video explaining this I can find?

[@lukejohn6139]

Wonderful video. Just think, people living today may see a united Ireland and a divided Britain. Who would of thought that 20 years ago?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

There’s a thought! I hadn’t really considered it that way before.

[@jamesalexander5623]

Thanks Cons!

[@BaronTomR]

The real question is what do the people who voted for the Alliance party want? They are the potential swing vote for or against reunification.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Great point. I didn’t cover the Alliance Party, but you are absolutely right. It really does seem that there is a 20% that is crucial to all this. The polling really shows this.

[@steve00alt70]

Aliiance party dont really have a say or power for reunification because they dont represent ROI but Sein Fein does.

[@joprocter4573]

If you have ppl who have insisted on aphreid as in South Africa on religious education in NI is the person who lived the aphreid parraell life the person who is new leader.. Be permitted to be Victor's??

[@BaronTomR]

Do keep in mind that neither pro Unionist or pro Republican parties have enough support to prevent or cause reunification. They do have that support if the secular Alliance party voters go with their side in a referendum. That's what makes them a swing vote.

[@gloin10]

@@steve00alt70 "Aliiance party dont really have a say or power for reunification..."? The Alliance Party Northern IrelandAPNI) has a neutral stance concerning NI's 'constitutional status'. It focusses on bread and butter issues, claiming that it simply wants to make daily life better for everyone in NI. However, if Irish unification is ever going to happen, APNI's voters will have to be convinced. Generally, they are more pragmatic, and will probably vote for, or against, based on the economics or social issues, not Unionist or Republican ideologies. Sinn Féin(SF) does NOT "...represent ROI..." That function is performed by the Irish Government at home, and by Ireland's Diplomatic Service abroad... SF is a rather strange party, which might be diagnosed as suffering from 'Multiple-Personality Disorder'. In NI, it is very much an Establishment party, and has been in government for a long time. In the Republic of Ireland(RoI), it portrays itself as a left wing party, a voice for protest. In Westminster elections and UK terms, it is abstentionist. It takes its MPs' salaries and puts them into party finds, but will not take the oath of allegiance. In Europe? It hasn't really figured this EU thing out yet. It was reflexively anti-Europe, but pulled off the smoothest U-turn in Irish political history and became slightly sceptical, PRO-Europe, back in about 2015. This is when it realised that being anti-EU was NOT a vote winner in the RoI. However, it did not bring its core vote in NI with it, and the turnout in SF areas was extremely low for the 2016 referendum....

[@Yellowsnow69420]

Glad to see your subscriber count going up. You provide such excellent reviews and insights into such interesting topics. I checked out your projections, and it says you’ll have a quarter million subscribers in a year. I’d love to see that!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. It is really nice to see that the channel is reaching a wider audience. Hopefully people do find the videos interesting and useful, even if they don't always agree with what I say. :-)

[@ericpierce3660]

That was really interesting, thanks for putting in the time and effort to enlighten us.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@0w784g]

Can't help but think that the fact that SF has re-emerged as a politcal force in the republic is actually much more significant than SF getting a majority of seats in NI.

[@silverkitty2503]

but that has really happened like years ago not recently? i mean they have been a force in the south for like 10 yrs now.

[@eyeballseesaws]

SF didn't get anywhere near a majority of seats in northern Ireland, they didn't even get a single extra seat over what they had

[@Richard1A2B]

@@eyeballseesaws while they didn't get more seats with an electorate swinging more to non-sectarian, they did get the highest number of seats.

[@lsabellathehousekeeper3280]

@@silverkitty2503 I was thinking going on 20 years ♥️🍻

[@tonydiamond1875]

@@eyeballseesaws Quite right! they had 27 seats beforehand, and 27 seats afterwards.

[@sheilamargaretwardstoriesa494]

Thank you for your clear and concise explanation of the situation.

[@ckelly-rs3tc]

Great video! As an Irishman living in the north, I would like to see a united Ireland. Still, at the same token, I don't want to see a return to violence if that were to potentially come about (wishful thinking considering both sides don't need much convincing to start fighting). In my opinion, the only way it can work is with heavy planning to make sure they think of everything they can to make the transition as smoothly as possible (what to do about the health system etc.)

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. You are absolutely right. It would need a huge amount of planning and a lot of thought about an appropriate political system to at least ease that transition. But let’s hope that things can continue to remain calm. By the way, I’m writing this from Bosnia where a process of reunification after a conflict is proving rather tricky and really needs rethinking. The trouble is that the sides can’t decide how to reform it. It’s an important lesson about how some peace agreements can stabilise a situation, but others can lead to long term resentment. I hope to post a video on it soon.

[@h00sha]

Really excellent. Answered all of my questions. Thanks from Canada!

[@TheMirohesham]

As always, pristine and thought-provoking content. Thank you.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much!

[@peterkops6431]

Got to love the variety of content. Expands my knowledge base exponentially with each view. Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. I’m so glad you find them interesting. I really love the opportunity to look at so many interesting issues. And I always learn so much from the comments.

[@patrickrogan8100]

Thank you James, as an Irishman I think you encapsulated the history of the plantations and English settlement very neatly for such a short timeframe. One thought I have had that I wonder if you could comment on: do you think Irish unity or Scottish independence would make the other more or less likely? I've always had it in my head that if, for example, the Scottish gained independence through whatever means, it would make the Conservative party more likely to try and hold on to NI to not have it seem like the Union is falling apart, or vice versa if NI went first. Or do you think one going would tend to start an avalanche of the other going?

[@andrewsarantakes639]

Excellent points. I have thought much of the same. Probably if one goes, the other will follow.

[@lightfootpathfinder8218]

Most of the people planted in northern Ireland were Scottish not English

[@andrewtully3622]

@@lightfootpathfinder8218 How could you say something so factual but brave?

[@patrickrogan8100]

@@lightfootpathfinder8218 Aye they were Scots Presbyterian dissenters sent there by English policy. It was an English plan of Scottish settlement

[@patrickrogan8100]

@@lightfootpathfinder8218 And the landlords were all English all across the island

[@Meckload]

Great presentation. Thank you so much for your insights.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks you so much. This was a topic I had wanted to cover for a while. Not an easy one given how close to home it is.

[@jasmeenmalhotra2225]

Prof, while I always appreciate your clear-eyed adherence to practicality and your balanced realism, one of my favourite parts of this video was hearing you say “the island of Ireland” in your lovely accent!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Haha! Thanks so much. I actually put it in there to test whether I could say it without tripping up. :-)

[@user-cx5wq9rn6e]

as a one who is from turkey with a profound interest in politics, i find your content meticiliously well wrapped up . Your content is just beyond amazing .

[@zachhart3205]

This is a fabulous video - thank you for sharing

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed!

[@merocaine]

Great summary, you covered a lot of ground. My two cents as an Irishman from the Republic of Ireland, first I'm not sure I want to give up the republic for a federal system, second, it would have to be a new unitary state, whatever that may be, thirdly, the loyalists genuinely hate us, trying to integrate them into a new state would be difficult in the extreme. All of the above issues and many others would have to be resolved before I would consider voting for a new state. No leaps of faith for me, the republic I live in was too hard won for be to give it up so easily.

[@adelinod.5568]

You simply need to kick them out. They will NEVER accept a united Ireland.

[@artman12]

Federal republic and reunification worked well for Germany, despite having radically opposed political and economic systems.

[@merocaine]

@@artman12 it is a much bigger country. German started off as a large number of small and large independent states, federal government was a perfect fit. Ireland, since the late 16th century has been governed as a whole, partition is an anomaly. My hope would be a new unitary state, not a merger to the republic of Ireland, but a new state that would be acceptable to the people as a whole. Probably a pipe dream. I would rather keep the republic as is than have some kind of devolved government in the north.

[@joeanonymous1834]

There is absolutely no conflict whatsoever between a federal system and a republic. Ever heard of the United States of America?

[@hirsch4155]

@@joeanonymous1834 Ok, he just explained how Ireland is a different case to Germany (making a very interesting good point I might add) and now you’re comparing it to the US? I think you have to be Irish born and raised to understand what’s at stake, on top of knowing Irish history and government . I’m a Canadian interested in the world and this video was educative!

[@Cr4pSnip3r]

If I recall there was a poll a few years ago by RTÉ (maybe 2016?) that suggested a majority of (Republic) Irish people would oppose unity if it meant an increase in taxes. I think, if given a vote, they would ultimately be in favour but it was interesting to see not everyone in the Republic was jumping with joy at the idea.

[@shaneryan7622]

It varies on how it’s asked. Eg. Do the republic citizens have to pay to reunification with the north, violence etc but I genuinely feel when push comes to shove.. it would pass in the republic

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks much. In fact, I was going to put a screenshot of just that poll. (I really should have done it!) You are absolutely right. It showed that support fell to just 22% if people had to pay for it! It's really fascinating how often we see this. There's a lot of talk about national unification - until people see the bill.

[@shaneryan7622]

@@JamesKerLindsay yeah it’s a phenomenon in itself, my parents vision of the north (northern Ireland) would be that of destain, they believe the baggage isn’t worth it, throughout that generation reunification and the movement itself became tarnished due to the violence. The status Quo between the jurisdictions today was an international achievement of 98 and a lot of people relate to the “don’t fix if it’s not broke” motto when it comes to reunification. Yet it’s the generations post 98 that will inevitably decide. How ireland has changed from conservative Catholicism to a more secular liberal country giving acess to abortion, Gay rights etc ( at one point in time NI was the liberal state 😂😂). Ireland will become attractive to more liberal unionists and non aligned but ireland has its own problems to sort out before any major changes happen. But Sinn Féin’s win in the north and increased polling in the republic will put significant pressure on the British government to even prepare along with the Irish government. However as an Irish person, all eyes are on Scotland these day, they hold nationalisms card. (Sorry very long)

[@jackwiegmann]

@@JamesKerLindsay This is especially the case with North Korea. I believe the South Koreans fear that NK is too far gone, and the short-term financial drawbacks of reunification could sour reunification even more.

[@hitmontree3736]

That's a similar viewpoint that the South Koreans have: they don't mind unification with the North unless it would increase their taxes.

[@MrBluemanworld]

What an interesting page! 👏👏 Congrats, Professor

[@michealoflaherty1265]

An excellent and accurate summary. Well done Professor.

[@chickh4933]

Only came across your channel today, looking on from republic, you absolutely said it all in a nutshell brilliantly said, IRELAND is a multi national country today, ALL WE WANT IS PEACE an to live in harmony with others, The FAMINE saw a mass emigration of Irish citizens estimated to be around 1,2 million to other countries, they crossed the Atlantic on coffin ships thousands died on that perilous journey,, Today i believe that around 35 million in America identified themselves as irish not mention other countries, All we want is one world for all,

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed! And a very warm welcome to the channel.

[@user-on2ys9jr6t]

Ireland isn't multinational. Its exactly what you yourself called it, Ireland, one nation. Some foreigners have moved here post celtic tiger. Doesn't make us not Ireland anymore.

[@dukebop]

Very interesting! It reminds me a lot of the current state of things in my homeland of Puerto Rico. With sustained apathy from the United States and a crumbling local government, independence sentiment has been growing, propelled by increasingly attractive Puerto Rican Independence Party candidates. It would not surprise me if they score large electoral victories in the coming elections, as has been predicted, which would be a historic feat for a movement that suffered gargantuan repression during the Cold War.

[@connormurphy683]

Do you think statehood, independence or something else is the right way forward for Puerto rico?

[@dukebop]

@@connormurphy683 Personally, I support independence for a variety of reasons. However, opinion is pretty polarized on the island with valid arguments by all sides. It’s complicated.

[@greatwolf5372]

@@dukebop A Puerto Rican friend told me that most independence supporters are second generation Puerto Ricans living in places like NYC. How accurate do you think that is?

[@TheSwedishHistorian]

didn’t you vote for statehood during the last election?

[@dukebop]

@@greatwolf5372 Sounds very subjective, independence supporters on the island are quite varied demographically. Support is rising in the younger generations who have only lived during the economic crisis, but there is a substantial group of that Cold War generation who have stuck through. It’s a very multifaceted dynamic, as it permeates our society very thoroughly. Also, I should add that there’s a clear disconnect between stateside Puerto Ricans and island boricuas. Culturally, they’re two different groups and should be treated as such, as most don’t know firsthand how day-to-day life is on the island.

[@clancywiggam]

That was a very objective piece of work that used the correct terminology throughout. Good work.

[@bradyh79]

Very fair and conscientious. Well done. Respect!

[@krombopulos_michael]

I don't think many people think it's inevitable or right around the corner, but many more people at least now think its something that could happen within the next decade if the conditions are right, where previously people would have thought it was unlikely to happen in a lifetime.

[@lvoldum]

Very balanced and informative video - as usual ;-) As I had understood it, the whole precondition for the GFA was the formation of the EU in 1993 with its Single Market and Customs Union, thus making a border on the island of Ireland superfluous. This precondition was removed by Brexit.

[@noelhadjimichael2570]

Important topic that is treated to an insightful and informative analysis. James is a respected voice in this broader space - great to see a large number of views and high level engagement. Evidence based debate is worthy of respect.

[@asadfami7623]

Excellent video. History explained exceptionally well. Well done Sir.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@JohninRosc]

I think the threat of a return to violence upon reunification can easily be overstated. "The Troubles" were largely a battle between the IRA and the British forces of the army and RUC with Loyalist paramilitaries playing bit parts, invariably aided and abetted by the British Army and RUC. That would not be the case post reunification. Additionally, whilst the Loyalist paramilitaries like to talk political idealism (well, political demands for the most part - they never offer solutions), their main activities are the import and distribution of drugs - in a very competitive market. This primarily leads to internal battles amongst themselves. The post reunification landscape will be very different. They can be part of the solution or remain part of the problem.

[@roisinmalone3015]

Loyalist terrorists played a big part in the Troubles

[@sb8163]

@@roisinmalone3015 indeed Roisin, but it was with the collusion of the British security forces. British Army members said in interview that "without the help specifically of the Force Research Unit and the Special Branch, the loyalists would not have been able to tie their shoelaces." I think the 1993 tv documentary 'Hidden Hand: the Forgotten Massacre' about the 1974 bombings that caused the largest loss of life in a single day of the troubles is on youtube

[@roisinmalone3015]

@@sb8163 Yes I agree but Loyalist terrorist groups don't get a pass. Plus a lot of the stuff re burning Catholics out of their homes was done by them with a mob in tow. With the RUC etc standing by.

[@lsabellathehousekeeper3280]

♥️👏😁👏😁 No doubt about violence, and when Hillary Clinton the sitting at the chancellor Queens College

[@Marvin-dg8vj]

The Unionists are a huge problem.They have a weak connection with the UK particularly England and Wales.However given the prolonged civil wars in Ireland in the 20th century they are unlikely to roll over for Irish nationalism

[@itsirkeel]

The energy of this is so exciting to me! I can now easily imagine within my lifetime seeing a dissolution of the U.K. into Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales--- and maybe also the Shetland Republic! And Hebridean Republic!

[@akwaetteettekambaetiowo.1924]

It's shall happen for peace to reign simple

[@ashtree7213]

Ireland isn't part of the UK, it already gained it's independence in 1922. Northern Ireland is though.

[@dainomite]

Thank you for the eye opening video James! I wasn’t too familiar with the Good Friday Agreement nor how Northern Ireland was affected by Brexit but now I have a greater idea. As always I look forward to your next videos.

[@michaelestrada3014]

Oh man I’ve been waiting for this one

[@andreisoceanu4320]

Awesome video professor! I have a question: considering the trend of european countries to sometimes split up, sometimes unify, not only geographically, but also administratively, such as Brexit, Austro-Hungarian empire, Romania and Moldova, UK and Ireland, Serbia & Montenegro, and so many other examples that occured only in the last 150 years, do you foresee Europe and EU to pursue the goal of becoming one single "country" with many states inside it, like US?

[@valgaart_serindard0662]

Nah fuck that, 4th reich my arse, I'd rather join the 3rd one.

[@Pikaling3408]

as a Romanian national I'm watching events in Northern Ireland very closely. I still want reunification of Romania and Moldova but however if Ireland reunified then it will be a precedent for us in the future

[@alanburns3194]

Székely Land too?

[@Pmccaff2009]

It's a question of when Ireland reunifes my friend not if.

[@hardystar8820]

@@alanburns3194 Belive me, if u weren't in the middle of our country we would give u up, u are worth less than u think, also szekely aren't even hungarians till last 2 centurieswere considered another ethnicity...

[@garylake1676]

@@Pmccaff2009 Incorrect, Ireland cannot 'reunify', it can only 'unify', there has never been a unified Ireland before, as it was feudal prior to the arrival of the English.

[@grandemperorputin5992]

Moldova might have a better chance of seeing unification with Russia than that it would with Romania, despite historical claims the population there don’t seem to be going any way right now..

[@indonesiansasquatch4926]

brilliant as always!

[@brokenglass9814]

I should have known you'd give a balanced presentation on tis. I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone covering this issue discuss the context of the views of Irish public in 1919 vs today! As ever, love your work.

[@Hellxar1]

As an Irish person from the Republic, I honestly fail to see a united Ireland practically occurring for decades. The primary problems that I see are twofold and feed into one another. Firstly, when it comes to unification, people in the Republic by and large want to have their cake and eat it too, as while polls have shown strong support for unification it always dives off a vertical cliff as soon as caveats are added; such as increased taxes, a new constitution, a new flag, and a reduction in the status of the Irish language. By itself this brings into question a referendum actually passing South of the border once the debates start, however it also feeds into the second problem that being security. What I feel many of my fellow countrymen unfortunately fail to appreciate is that the North is a conflict zone, albeit one that has very much frozen over, however it is still home to active paramilitary groups from both sides. You simply can't apply majoritarian rule to a conflict zone without the power to back it up, yet the prevailing attitude I see here towards Unionists is basically 'we're the majority, they're the minority, what we say goes'. Given that many Irish people are adamant that they would refuse to compromise much with the British population in Ulster, I see a renewed conflict to be a very real danger, especially given how hardline Sinn Fein has been at times with things such as refusing to recognise IRA atrocities, something that is a major sticking point with Unionists. This is particularly concerning when one bears in mind that according to the British government, Loyalist paramilitaries actually outnumber our own severely neglected Defence Forces. And all of this doesn't even account for issues down here that make unification not as attractive as it seems on paper, such as the lack of universal healthcare and a major housing crisis that is significantly worse than the UK's.

[@riiitch]

@Rowena McGregor agreed, appreciate your input!

[@brianfeely9239]

Some good points. You re right, we in the south like the idea but baulk at the reality.

[@lightfootpathfinder8218]

That was a very educated and interesting comment. You make very good points. As an Englishman I find it amazing that we seem to have a better relationship with people in the the Republic of Ireland which is a foreign country than we do we people in northern Ireland which is part of the UK

[@nutyyyy]

I really don't get the whole new flag idea. Surely the Irish flag already is pretty representative with Green, white and orange?

[@toby9999]

@@nutyyyy As someone who lives on the other side of the planet, I don't even understand why two groups of Irish peoples don't (or didn't) want to live together? All I can remember from years back is seeing violence reported in the news. Something about Catholic vs Protestant? Surely it's more than that?

[@bikeman9899]

Well done James. A complex topic, well summarized. I am not alone in saying that I look at unification with the North with a real sense of unease. IRL has transformed itself in the past 40 years, with many gains (and much work still to be done). In the North, if a future poll favors unification, there is a segment of the Loyalist population which will not accept a democratic decision, and will respond with violence. I believe most unionists however, would accept a democratic result, as they are, well, democrats. Not so for many in the right wing Loyalist population. They have been conditioned over the years to hate, (strong word I know, but correct I feel) the Republic and Nationalists in the North itself. I would prefer to see a gradual change, done in steps. But, this approach has its problems too. Democracy is imperfect, but is the only option and the GFA has thankfully reinforced.

[@kimobrien.]

Religion is less important in the modern world than ever before. Catholics and Protestants live and work next to each other in America as do people of all kinds of people despite original national origin. A secular state makes religious freedom possible for all. The UK is still a Protestant state not to mention its retention of other relics of its feudal past.

[@kimobrien.]

@Gabriel Torres American segregationists said they would not desegregate their school system after the 1954 Supreme court decision and have white childern sit next to black childern. School buses were lit on fire. The President had Federalize the State National Guard just so 8 Black children could have school in Little Rock, AK Alabama governor George Wallace said Segragaton today, Segregation tomorrow, Segregation forever. In 2008 America elects the first Black President.

[@joprocter4573]

All time ira sinn fein call shots not 1% chance of reunification

[@daseteam]

Well worth watching. Well-founded. Have subscribed.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed. A very warm welcome! :-)

[@desmneylon]

Very well researched and presented.

[@jgdooley2003]

As a citizen of Ireland , unaffected in any personal way with the conflict in the North I am very much afraid that the two sides might swap roles in the event of a rush to reunify the island. You might find the Nationalists in a position of power getting assistance from the 26 counties to keep law and order and the unionists taking on the role of aggrieved conquered people, possibly getting covert assistance and refuge from more radical elements of the Scottish protestant ethnicities which still exist and still hate Catholics etc. What might happen is a redrawing of the sectarian map of NI, nationalists residing on the west and south of the province and unionists living in the Northeast corner of the province. Like what happened to post Raj India in 1947 a major population shift might occur with Nationalists moving West and South and Unionists moving East and North, a possible dividing line being the upper and lower Bann river and Lough Neagh. This would be a tragic event and would only prolong conflict and strife between the more strident elements of each community. With the present stalemate and political constipation caused by the DUP, a stubborn refusal to operate the devolved arrangements to the equal fury of both Dublin and London governments I would not put it past this repartition happening in the North.

[@stevenupton7825]

As an englishman i want a united ireland in the EU , so they can pick the tab up for the trouble they cause, give them a one off chance to move to the uk and then visa them the same as the rest of the EU

[@RushfanUK]

There is a lot of focus on unification and as you lay out the political and sectarian issues underlying this, I wonder though that when the rose tinted glasses are put to one side can Dublin actually afford unification and will the people of NI wake up and vote for a health care system where the majority will have to start paying to see GP'S, visit an A&E, pay for hospital stays and treatment. Around 30% of the NI workforce also work in the UK public sector, a lot of those jobs will return to Great Britain on unification, there's no impact study on the private sector and the number of jobs that may leave NI because of GB based companies pulling out of NI either, as with Scotland and Wales there are also large subsidies provided by central Government to NI that will leave significant funding gaps that Dublin will have to fund.

[@kevinbolger8043]

I really think the relevance of the difference will dwindle as has been the case in protestant enclaves left marooned in the south of Irelands after the partition of 1922. And although one grouping in the case of the six counties is now a substantial minority it is a strategized minority many of which refuse to be defined any longer in so narrow terms as staunch unionist/protestant just as those on the other side of the perceived divide have shrugged off old constricts. particularly the up and coming generation.

[@bigbang7897]

I'm a Nationalist born in the North of Ireland and grew up there during the troubles to be honest as much as I long for a United Ireland I would not wish the Loyalist community on the South of Ireland or anyone else for that matter I would honestly say the British would be more than glad to get rid of them but they are like a bad smell and the British are stuck with them.

[@Dreyno]

@@stevenupton7825 You broke it, you pay for it 😐

[@robertdavis4424]

Thank you for a very educating talk. As an English Catholic who served in the British Army in Belfast during the troubles, this is a subject that has long interested me. I always saw unification as inevitable due the differing birth rates between Catholic and Protestant societies. I wonder what effect unification would have on the rights of Irish nationals free movement in Main Land UK and their right to vote in UK elections.

[@ashtree7213]

You do know British people in Ireland enjoy the same concessions and there's about 300,000 of them living & working in Ireland?

[@ogaram]

Unification of Ireland will actually cement the free movement further. There will be a large unionist cohort in Ireland who will want to retain the links with Britain.

[@CodyChap]

Great video mate, Irish myself and is a definite interesting topic for debate, let's see what the future holds

[@dronespace]

Really interesting video, thanks

[@MrInsdor]

I've heard that Sinn Fein deprioritized the topic of unification during campaigning and thus they were, as you briefly show, not actually winning, but simply staying where they were before while the party above them crashed. This obviously still results in them having the most seats, but I wonder if they have to keep unification low profile at least for the immediate future. What do you think about that? I for the record never actively follow NI politics as I have no connection to the region.

[@ems7623]

Unionists defected to moderate parties including the nonsectarian Alliance Party. But don't underestimate the significance of that. Those voters knew moving towards the middle meant nationalists could take Stormont ... and that didn't make them shit their psnts! This counts as progress in a place like Northern Ireland.

[@FOLIPE]

One of the biggest drivers of NI independence just might be the contrast between efficient home rule and corrupt tory politics in Westminster

[@clavichord]

@@ems7623 The Alliance Party is for the status quo.... and therefore unionist-lite

[@happyhappynuts]

@@FOLIPE hard to say though, if you consider defence spending and allies industries e.g. aerospace. Meaning although .uk as a whole more bureaucratic, there is also more spending that home rule couldn't bring

[@gottmituns813]

That is not really the point, Sinn Fein has added 25,000 more votes and has increased its percentage of the vote to 29% compared to the previous elections, something really historic and that continues to consolidate the party election after election, even in the Republic is the party with the most support and possibly govern after the next elections.

[@moshehaifa]

Thanks for making a video about Ireland. I don't see a united Ireland as likely in the next 20 years. I think once SF enter government in the Republic of Ireland they will start to develop plans for what a united Ireland might look like so people can actually start to compare more concrete versions of the future for NI and the RoI. I don't think a nationalist majority is likely in NI so winning a border poll would entail winning over the middle ground Alliance voters and perhaps some moderate unionists. It's a big ask though.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Brendan. I completely agree. In fact the best model is Scotland. The best hope SF has of winning over the middle ground is to show that they can govern responsibly and for all. And there will need to be a real blueprint that offers something to unionists. Brexit will do a lot to help this along, but real evidence of inclusivity will be key.

[@moshehaifa]

@@JamesKerLindsay We'll see if SF are clever enough to try to win over the middle ground like that. My great concern with a narrowly won border poll is violence by unionists/loyalists who won't accept the result.

[@nickedname7048]

Very well explained, thank you.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much.

[@macker33]

Excellent, straight down the middle breakdown.

[@MrTeniguafez]

I think the crucial thing to watch in regards to unification will be Sinn Fein's actual performance in governing the territory. Whether they succeed or fail, the Assembly's governance will give the fencesitters and the politically unengaged a "taste" of what life under Irish sovereignty may be like, or at least the perception of such (which is often more important). If O'Neill's government manages to make major strides in the kitchen table issues that dominated their campaign, we may see an uptick in support for unification, especially if the UK's political troubles continue on their downward path. On the other hand, if things don't measurably improve, or get worse, under the new government, status quo bias will probably be heavily reinforced and unification probably won't be on the table without major demographic shifts. All of this assumes SF can actually form a working coalition, which is far from guaranteed. As you touched on, Unionist seats still outnumber Nationalist seats in the Assembly.

[@andrewsarantakes639]

Well said. Kitchen table issues significantly drive politics.

[@rusticpartyeditz]

Regarding the formation of a government in Northern Ireland, it is a mandatory coalition of nationalists and unionists. Sinn Fein will have no more power in any newly formed government than they had in the last one. Their number of seats has not changed. Sinn Fein will not govern Northern ireland. And the DUP have to take part or Stormont cannot function at all.

[@GTJ65]

MrTeniguafez I'm afraid on many levels you just don't understand the current political set up in Northern Ireland. Please acquaint yourself with it before returning to your keyboard on the subject.

[@nialloshea9755]

Excellent video, brilliantly covered. Just wanted to clarify: Ulster is made up of nine counties six of which are in Northern Ireland. The other three counties: Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal are in the Republic of Ireland. So while the majority of Ulster is in Northern Ireland not all of it is. This was done as Cavan Monaghan and Donegal have large Catholic populations and the partition was done in an attempt to keep as few Catholics in Northern Ireland as possible. But fantastic job keep it up

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. Of course, you’re absolutely right about Ulster. I did sort of show this on the map, but it could have been clarified. All of Northern Ireland is Ulster, but not all Ulster is Northern Ireland.

[@glenngilbert7389]

Thank you for clarifying this complex situation and explaining the options available if reunification were ever to become a reality

[@lesbendo6363]

Good video, Thank you.

[@ConorD1990]

Very much to the point. As someone that grew up in the Republic of Ireland and has a parent that grew up in Belfast during the Troubles (and still has family up North), this was an excellent summary of a very complex and sensitive topic. Particularly at 7:15 it’s often forgotten (by people from both the UK and the Republic) that Northern Ireland was designed from the beginning as a state were Unionist would always meant to be in the majority, so much so that Northern Ireland actually only contains 6 out of the 9 counties of the province of Ulster as had Northern Ireland consisted of all 9 counties of Ulster this would have left Protestants and Catholics in NI much closer together in terms of numbers. So the 3 counties in Ulster that were majority Irish/Catholic (Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan) were instead made part of the newly created Irish Free state that was formed as part of the Anglo-Irish treaty. And yes if Irish reunification even happens a federalist model similar to what Switzerland has with its 26 Cantons might be an option. Many thanks for the video.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. I had wanted to take a look at the situation for a while. I well remember the disruption caused by the IRA when I was growing up in London. People forget (or weren’t around to remember) what dark times they were for everyone. And why the GFA was such an important development. (And why I, like so many others in Ireland and Britain, am really angry about the games being played by Johnson at the moment.) Really good point about the division of Ulster. I should have perhaps made that clearer but it can be tricky clarifying things like that in a short video.

[@kurtpunchesthings2411]

@@JamesKerLindsay oh fr it amazes me how casually people seem to be brushing off the GFA why is this important ? pffffft it was only the agreement that ended 29 years of fighting and over 3,600 dead so my point is any attempt to even modify this document needs to be very very carefully done when you understand the cultural significance this agreement has had i know it's not always been fully peaceful Post 1998 but we have had 24 years of peace compared to the dark times of the Troubles a return to this would be a Disaster for the EU the UK and Ireland

[@GeographyWorld]

Thanks for making a video about Ireland. It's a controversial topic but whatever happens I just hope it's peaceful.

[@derekerasmus8716]

Thanks. Excellent summary.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much.

[@TracyCul]

A very good summary, James, thank you. Also, discussions are happening informally by grassroots orgs to explore what exactly UI would look like. For sure that has to be decided before any referendum.

[@liamr194]

I think a key element that's understated is the way Brexit has inadvertently encouraged "British" people to explore their Irish heritage for an Irish passport. There's been 2.6million Irish passport applications from Britain since the Brexit vote. Everyone with an Irish Granny is now, whether by virtue of identifying as Irish or simply for freedom of movement, exploring being an Irish citizen. Within that, you're going to get a lot of Brits' who no longer feel they can comment on Irish Nationalism. A lot of the middle aged folk who were raised on a staple of anti-Irish propaganda by THEIR grandparents have actually found an entitlement to Irish citizenship within their Families. AND a weight of momentum behind people recognising and opening their eyes to Irish pride. Even before the Brexit vote, being Irish is sought after and a "cool" thing to be; you only have to travel to the US to see that. A series of forces have been unleashed by the Brexit vote that weren't necessarily actively suppressed but remained passive since the Good Friday Agreement. All of sudden now, after leaving the EU, those forces have essentially been activated. There's no way back now from the weight of momentum behind a United Ireland. There's twice as many Catholics being born as Protestants, it's simply a matter of time. The most difficult period comes right now, navigating the Unionists through the increasing alienation they feel as they recognise the momentum has swung.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Haha! So true. Sadly, I’m two generations out on an Irish passport. :-) But I might be able to get a Scottish one, if that day comes. And I’d be certain of a Welsh one.

[@stevenupton7825]

the more the better they voted to remain more than happy to see them go, gibralter should be given to spain too , voting remain should carry consequences

[@Alfred5555]

@@stevenupton7825 Gibraltar is very valuable to England though

[@peterperigoe9231]

Absolutely my cousin in London asked me could i get a copy of our Grandmothers birth cert so he could apply for a Irish passport, so I said, but your mother was born in Bandon Cork and sent him on the details, he didn't know.

[@liamr194]

@@stevenupton7825 Steve that's a bit of an ideological point within one about legal Identity... Gibraltarians have dual nationality and - as with The Falklands - on every Census a significant majority choose to identify as British. We can't throw a punitive blanket over these issues predicated on one specific referendum. I'm an Irish-born Mancunian who has lived in England nearly all of my life. I'm a proud Irishman who also owes Britain a lot; since it was the relative sanctuary of Manchester that allowed my protestant English Father and Catholic Irish Mother to live without fear of their sons disappearing on the way home from school. Many of my generation are more interested in looking forward to a better future for our children whereas many of the generation before me (baby boomers) were far too interested in repeating the sins of their Fathers. British people have as much right to vote to leave the EU without punitive nonsense as Irish people do to a United Ireland. There's nothing illegitimate about national pride nor controlled migration.

[@thebigpicture-elpanorama]

Professor James has "ticked all the boxes" and "hit every nail on the head".

[@noufbouf]

Quality. thank you James.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed!

[@TheJalipa]

I’m very skeptical that a United Ireland is likely in 20 years…..much less 5. As you pointed out, the apparent “success” of Sinn Fein is not because of electoral success…..but the collapse of the DUP. Unionist Parties still won most votes 42%…..but they were split. The Sinn Fein vote didn’t increase at all, static at 41% For over 10 years, the DUP have shown some worst political leadership imaginable. And finally they paid the price. The DUP underestimated the strength of Unionism. They have always opposed the Good Friday Agreement And hoped that Brexit would break it. But with no objective of “what next”. They also could not imagine that Boris would actually risk the U.K’s integrity by signing a deal putting a border in the North Sea. So the DUP facilitated a Brexit that actually damaged the U.K. & risks the GFA Most people of Northern Ireland, irrespective of the divide want the peace that the GFA has brought. And did not want Brexit. The DUP had lost touch with the unionist population who have woken up to how incompetent the DUP have actually been. But to reiterate…..Sinn Fein did not win because votes. If Unionist can unite (oh irony) behind a new single party) they will take back control. Oh don’t overestimate the number of young Protestants willing to consider voting for unification…..people have saying that for 100 years. Even IF the demographics have changed enough for a narrow referendum win for Unification…..there still will be 900,000 Protestants……..that is a lot people to give up their identity

[@shaneryan9040]

Protestants will be more than welcome in a new United Ireland..They will be still be able to bang their drums and blow their whistles,burn flags and have hate rallies.It may be hard for them to accept that they are Irish but they are Irish and by accepting reality they will see they can live in a peaceful and prosperous society.

[@mdza]

Yes but there are other republican parties in NI that won 10.9% SDLP and people before profit.

[@TheJalipa]

@@mdza Sinn Fien won 29% 40% is the total of all Nationalist parties I should have made that clearer in my post

[@ckelly-rs3tc]

Some very good points however there could be one key factor being the Alliance party. Given that they don't have a "side" in this situation the thing that could potentially win them over is if Sinn Fein can convince them that a unified Ireland would benefit the economy and raise the standard of living for everyone, and given they are currently the third-largest party that would be a considerable difference

[@fedoralexandersteeman6672]

Also interesting question still remains the breakup of Belgium and Flanders either becoming its own state or joining the Netherlands somehow. The conservative Flemish lawyer Matthias Storme has already decades ago pointed out a solution if an independent Flanders would end up outside of the EU, especially if its re-entry would be barred somehow by rump Belgium, France and Spain, among other allies. His "plan N" (a play on "plan B") would be Flanders joining the KINGDOM of the Netherlands on par with many of its overseas constituent countries. This way, an independent Flanders would only need to give up on part of its new sovereignty, while aligning itself with a country it has more in common with than Wallonia.

[@corglass]

Incredibly well done video

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. I had been rather hesitant to take it on.

[@MsPataca]

Great video. It's very informative.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed.

[@crowbar9566]

A lot of people are talking up the prospect of a united Ireland. The nationalists are very vocal and so are giving the impression to the outside world that it is imminent. In reality it is not particularly near as the Unionist still hold the numbers and will continue to do so for many decades to come - with help from catholics who would prefer to remain in the UK, though there is a relatively new phenomenon of protestants who are open to a united Ireland. And I say this as someone who comes from Irish parents.

[@tonydiamond1875]

Well said, and quite right.

[@samuelmcgovern]

One of the clearest explanations of the situation that I've come across.

[@alastor2322]

Incredibly intelligent and well informed analysis

[@babbelfisch789]

Thank you for this great video. Densely packed with information, a great overview over historic and current issues to be considered! I'm from Germany. Over here, there was overwhelming support for reunification in both states. Nevertheless, a whole lot of issues arose that noone could have seen coming, and that still haunt us to this day...

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. And thanks for the great point about German reunification. It still frames so much of the discussion about other unification movements.

[@babbelfisch789]

@@JamesKerLindsay I guess that is because there are so few examplex of reunifications? But of course, we mustn't overlook that the situation was in many ways very, very different - with one state being a socialist planned economy :D

[@vinniechan]

When you cited the Republic of Ireland having a GDP per capita that greater than the UK I think u neglected the effect of multinationals booking their paper profit in Ireland That's why the Irish central bank devised a modified GNI to reflect how well they are doing The latest figure I can find is a piece from Irish times in 2021 citing the modified GNI being 40% lower than the nominal GDP in 19 Don't know how it's been doing since

[@cianmcguire5647]

GDP is a junk metric! I do however believe the average Irish person is better off than the average Brit.

[@cianmcguire5647]

@The Richest Man In Babylon Median wage in Ireland is higher than UK average and that’s not even accounting for how much of an outlier London is. Travel to NI, Wales or Northern England and compare it with Ireland. I’m not even saying Ireland is some utopia, it clearly isn’t. But we have been drifting left as the UK hardlined right.

[@cianmcguire5647]

@The Richest Man In Babylon Left as in economic justice. What use is high GDP growth if 90% of the population feel no difference. Wages are stagnant in most of the Western world for over a decade and those under 40 are locked out of the property market. If free market economics caused this, and its sole driver is profit, in what world will it solve it? Conditions are ideal for those with assets and capital. The rich get richer.

[@cianmcguire5647]

@The Richest Man In Babylon You asked a question and I politely answered. No need to throw the toys out of the pram, although it is quite fitting I suppose.

[@cianmcguire5647]

@The Richest Man In Babylon Young enough to not be stuck in my ways or arrogant, old enough to not waste my time :)

[@jerronng6036]

Been waiting for years !!!! Congrats...start working on it !!

[@robg5958]

Very accurate and logical report. Well thought out.

[@jimmaloney1121]

SF has mentioned that the groundwork should be started on reunification so that, when the time comes for a border poll, there's a plan in place. I think that having a plan in place could be a huge factor in the success or failure of a border poll. When people see what the proposal is they might be swayed one way or the other. Coming up with a plan will probably take years so I don't see a border poll happening any time soon.

[@Pmccaff2009]

They have had years to come up with a plan. Years. The time for a border poll was 2016.

[@ckelly-rs3tc]

@@Pmccaff2009 they need a majority for a united ireland and in 2016 there was still a large-ish unionist majority

[@zakharov7953]

Great video! Just one nitpick though: Ireland's status as a global corporate tax haven means its per capita GDP numbers are meaningless; a huge portion of Ireland's GDP has nothing to do with the economy of Ireland.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Very good point! But I wouldn’t say it is meaningless. Ireland is still considered considerably richer on a per capita basis that the U.K. But it does matter in another way, Britain obviously wealthier in absolute terms. NI is a small faction of the U.K. Britain can far better absorb the costs of supporting it. (Although with Brexit this is changing.) in contrast, absorbing NI would see Ireland population grow by almost 40%. The economic cost of unification and supporting NI would proportionally be far greater for the Republic than for the U.K.

[@ahamill130]

@@JamesKerLindsay Do you see any analogues on this point with German reunification? How did that go down in West Germany? How long did it take for the economic destabilisation to level out again?

[@ecaeas4439]

@@ahamill130 From what I have seen, even in the year of reunification, West Germany's economy was doing brilliantly and was even then the richest economy in Europe. If any country was able to take on the liability of an area previously occupied and governed by the soviet empire, West Germany was it. It seems though that some people in the west were and perhaps even still are bitter about it, seeing themselves as rich and prosperous whilst seeing the east as a drain. I reckon the Republic would always be the most prosperous part of a United Ireland, whilst there might be not be much will to invest in the North to increase economic and GDP parity between North and south.

[@petercolledge2236]

@@ecaeas4439 The west German chancellor at the time conceived a master stroke politically, which was to make equal in value the East German mark and the West German mark. This was a bold stroke and could have been economically disastrous.

[@henrytudor8537]

@@JamesKerLindsay Good point.

[@cuculan1978]

Fun Fact In 2366 Star trek , the Irish Unification was noted by Lieutenant Commander Data as one of the numerous examples in history where terrorism was successfully used to bring about political change. Other examples he listed were the independence of Mexico from Spain, and the Kenzie Rebellion the British Government block this episode from showing in Ireland Britain at the time.

[@francinesicard464]

Very clear and interesting!👍 To my mind it's only a question of time.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot. I agree. I was speaking with a very senior NI politician (from a Protestant background) just a couple of evening ago and he said the same. It won’t necessarily happen soon. But it seems like there is just one direction this is all going.

[@jackwiegmann]

I'm incredibly curious as to how unification would effect UK citizenship for those in NI. I'm aware that dual nationality is already possible, but would unification still allow for those in NI to choose UK citizenship as well? Of course it could be exactly how it is now, but I don't see that lasting forever. Maybe something similar to how the UK BN(O) program was rolled out pre-HK handover?

[@nutyyyy]

Seems very likely honestly - if only to maintain stability.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Jack, Great question. I actually touched on this in an early draft of the script, but cut it out. It seems a little too focused at this stage. But it is an incredibly important and interesting question. If there is unification, then there will probably have to be a lot of concessions to the Protestant Unionists. One of these might be the right to retain their British citizenship. The problem is that this could create some serious problems. To pass on British citizenship, you have to be born in the UK. It would require a fairly major law change to allow this to be passed on in perpetuity if one was born outside. I am not sure how this would go down. Of course, Ireland in fact allows this by continual registration with each new generation. Britain could presumably do the same, with a gradual natural attrition as people stop doing it. But it would open up questions about whether this could and should just happen for NI or whether it should apply more widely.

[@mickgrant4262]

There is No problem with dual or singe Nationality in Ireland there are 10s of thousands of British citzens living in the Republic No Problems and their is No Religious discrimination nobody asks nobody cares What Religion you or cares

[@disposabull]

It's not just NI that would have to vote yes, the Irish would too. Unification would mean the huge taxpayer subsidies that NI currently enjoys would end. All of the businesses that are supported by the British government would also cease to exist. So an immediate massive recession and government budget crisis. The gdp per capita is a difference between $101,000 & $26,000, so the people of NI would have to pull their fingers out and become a lot more productive, no more special treatment. Unification would mean the politicians in NI having to give up a lot of the power they currently enjoy to be smaller players on a level playing field with the rest of Ireland.

[@tonydiamond1875]

Yes, quite right. And the citizens of the South would have to extend liberty, fraternity, and equality to many who would be damned if they were going to accept it. Who would want either side of that bargain? What's in it for anybody, North or South? As you correctly say, Northern businesses would be a lot poorer, and the social fabric of the South (including THEIR business structure) would be tested to the limit. Would you fancy "Policing" Northern Ireland? And who's going to pay for it all? Sinn Fein? Not likely!

[@krunkmonk9684]

I actually just spent a semester in Belfast learning about this issue, but I still learned a couple of new things!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Excellent! I’m glad to hear it. :-) And it must have been fascinating to spend some time in Northern Ireland. What did you make of it? Funnily enough, I’ve never been! I’ve spent a lot if time in Wales and Scotland and have been to the Republic many times, but never to NI. In fact most British people are far more likely to have been to the Republic than the North. (I actually also have ancestry from Ireland. North and South.)

[@krunkmonk9684]

@@JamesKerLindsay I thought it was a very vibrant place if you look past the weather. Beautiful murals (some certainly political) cover almost all the walls in Belfast. Communal divides are certainly noticeable, but almost every person I met there was incredibly kind.

[@GTJ65]

@@JamesKerLindsay Incredible, so you've never been to Northern Ireland. Well don't feel too bad the vast majority of people in the Republic have never been there either. In contrast the vast majority of Northern Ireland residents have visited the Republic." A little knowledge is dangerous"

[@luxembourgishempire2826]

Excellent video James. I've been to Ireland many times with my family. Although never the northern part.

[@GTJ65]

Neither has the Professor apparently.

[@joprocter4573]

Northern part is UK NORTHERN IRELAND

[@eugenegvozdetsky2673]

Thanks a lot! I didn't know much. Interesting how the terminology is used. I understand that the Irish nationalists are for a united Ireland, and the Unionists are for a union with Great Britain. But hard-line nationalists are called republicans, and hard-line unionists are called loyalists. I thought the loyalists wanted Northern Ireland to remain loyal to the Queen. Is there a fraction of people who are republican Unionists i.e. want to see a Republic of Great Britain and Northern Ireland or loyal "separatists" i.e. want to see a Kingdom of (Northern) Ireland led by Elizabeth II and her rightful successors?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Eugene. Yes, you are right. I really wanted to explain about the Nationalist/Republic vs Unionist/Loyalist definitions, but in my experience of teaching British politics it tends to muddy the waters too much at the start. It is hard enough explaining to people outside that unionists are not the ones who want union with Ireland and that nationalists are not the ones who are nationalists about their British identity. Great pint about the identities. I suppose you could have a republican unionists. I hadn't really thought about it!? :-) A more usual discussion is about how unionism and nationalist crosses religious affiliation. People tend to think it maps on neatly. Of course, it doesn't - although it does tend to correlate closely. There's actually a sizeable number of Catholics who want to remain in the UK and a growing number of Protestants who would be happy to see united Ireland.

[@yohaneschristianp]

Republican unionists sounds crazy

[@thedarquibus]

@@yohaneschristianp it is, and wouldn't be accurate cause it wouldn't exist in that sense.

[@nutyyyy]

Republican means they want to join the Irish Republic - it's terminology from before the partition of Ireland. Before Irish independence you had those campaigning for home rule (I.e within the British Empire but largely self governing with the King or Queen of Great Britain as the monarch, and those who campaigned and fought for an Irish Republic.

[@freneticness6927]

@@thedarquibus Nope. Oliver Cromwell was a republican protestant unionist and I dont think many ira members would like him all that much. Loyalist just means loyal to britain. Nationalist just means wanting to create an irish nation. Neither nationlists nor loyalists have the word republican in the name. You very much could have republican loyalists who do not like the idea of being governed by the roman catholic republic of ireland.

[@Granuaile1]

I'm from the Republic of Ireland. If I were given a chance to vote on a reunified Ireland I would only vote 'yes' if a plan of the type of unified Ireland we would have had been thrashed out and accepted by all concerned. I definitely don't want a vote based on emotions as the last thing we need is a sizeable majority in Northern Ireland not happy with reunification.and violence erupting because of this. I would also say that religion really has nothing to do with it-it's all about politics and economics. People in the Republic of Ireland don't give a toss about religion which is something that people outside Ireland can't seem to grasp. Brexit has thrown another spanner in the works as the majority of people in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU whilst the Unionist Parties followed the England/Wales vote to leave. Ultimately economics will determine everything but it won't happen soon.

[@lavienestpasunlongfleuvetr2559]

How could reunification happen though if, as you suggest, 'a sizable majority' in Northern Ireland didn't support it? Under the Good Friday Agreement (which Ireland has so far been determined to respect and has criticised Britain for compromising through Brexit), Ireland and Britain agreed that the question of reunification would be for the people of Northern Ireland alone to decide, by a majority popular vote. In other words, as it stands, there simply cannot be a situation where reunification happens despite the majority of Northerners opposing it. That's not to say that Unionists couldn't cause a lot of trouble in the afternath of reunification; it just means that they'd be the minority.

[@Granuaile1]

@@lavienestpasunlongfleuvetr2559 I should have said sizeable number, not majority. Used the wrong word.

[@patrickoshaughnessy4987]

You agree with a unionist veto then clown 🤡

[@abhainnbeag]

Great report

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@gordon5428]

Great video!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@thornil2231]

Here is my take: One of the more powerful elements will be the economic situation in the EU and the UK. If the EU prospers while the UK slides, it will be difficult for the people in Ulster to resist leaving a sinking ship. If the UK revives the old Empire and prospers while the EU is in turmoil, the people in Ulster will want to stick with the winner. Also Sinn Féin will now be involved with governing, with all the trapping. If for some reason they become unpopular that would push back reunification.

[@drummingkiwi8766]

This is why I think the growing CANZUK movement (a formal partnership, freedom of movement and trade, between UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) is so import for the UK to pursue. I'm very much a social democrat but this issue might make me swing the other way for a couple elections if it means pulling CANZUK off, assuming the Tories are the only major party to make canzuk a priority.

[@thornil2231]

@@drummingkiwi8766 A nice pipe dream... I hope England will get what it deserves.

[@drummingkiwi8766]

@@thornil2231 I suppose only time will tell

[@martinwfarrell]

I disagree with your take. Economic prosperity is a non issue for unionists because they are totally subsidised by London no matter what. They don't need to face reality because the cheque keeps coming. This is exactly why they could turn down very good deals/offers from Teresa May. UK needs to announce a date (say in 50 years time) for its withdrawal, similar to the Honk Kong withdrawal.

[@thornil2231]

@@martinwfarrell I hear you, but here is what's wrong with your point: Subsidies from London only come as long as the financial situation in England is not catastrophic. So again I go back to financial situation.And there is another element: The younger generation is less and less concerned with those feudal wars. Do you think the new English generation will want to see their taxes used to support a bunch of degenerate unionists whose only purpose in life is to aggravate and humiliate their catholic neighbors? The same is true with the youth in Eire and Ulster. The "Troubles," Bloody Sunday... for them it's like the War of the Roses or the battle of the Somme. Of course you still have some old sectarians and both sides, but they will die off. Again, that's my take, and I might be wrong. I think the best thing that could happen for reunification is an English financial meltdown.... and it is unlikely.

[@gregbrogan9061]

Tiocfaidh ár lá - but not just yet...

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Indeed, it probably will. But in all likelihood it will also come with a fairly hefty political and economic price tag. I did a video on Romania-Moldova unification recently. Interestingly, the same dynamic applies there. There is overwhelming support for union until the mechanics and costs are laid out and then people become rather more cautious. It will be really interesting to see what happens in the Republic if there is a decisive shift towards unification in the North.

[@ppalchinsky8301]

Really nice overview of the current situation in N Ireland, but your neutralist prognosis of what to expect left me wanting to learn more! Can’t wait for your follow-up analysis in the next year or so with hopefully a clearer indication of how likely or unlikely unification might be in the next 3-5 years.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot. It is really difficult to tell where this will go. I suspect that Brexit may be a decisive factor in all this. I didn't go into a lot of detail on the Northern Ireland Protocol, which regulates the relationship between the UK and the EU, but this could blow up as a political issue any day now. If Britain does decide to ditch it, it could have catastrophic effects in Ireland and Britain. At the moment, it actually keeps the cost of living lower in NI than on the mainland. If this changes, then people might start to see the benefits of unification in their pockets - and that is often where these things really count.

[@murpho999]

@@JamesKerLindsay The mainland. The expression that makes every Irish person roll their eyes. Northern Ireland is on the mainland. The mainland of Ireland.

[@brianraftery7675]

Excellent presentation

[@HAL_9001]

26+6=1

[@MrLurchsThings]

From a purely high-level/outsider looking in perspective, I struggle to see why there isn’t a United Ireland, especially after the dumpster fire that’s been Brexit (and that’s a legitimate struggle to see, a lack of understanding as to why). After 30(ish) years is there still so much animosity between Catholics and Protestants? Does religion still play a major part in Irish lives compared to other western areas of the world? Is Unionist/Nationalist still tied so closely to Catholic/Protestant? What’s in it for Northern Ireland to remain linked to the UK (especially when Britain seems to “meh” towards Ulster)? And please, these aren’t some trolling questions, I legitimately would like to know whilst being on the other side of the world.

[@ahamill130]

The fundamental point to graps is this: it's not about religion, it's about nationality. Yes, religion may have been more significant in centuries past when it tended to feature more strongly in people's identities (see the reference to Catholic or Protestant monarchs in the UK for example). But fundamentally, the division here is one of national identity - Irish or British. To understand it better, think of any other example of identity politics you'll be aware of. Another one from these islands is the Brexit vote. Yes, it was about all sorts of bread and butter issues. But, fundamentally, it too was about identity. We had Brexiters in England being prepared to take an economic hit or even see the break up of the UK as acceptable prices to pay if Britain got its sovereignty back. It seems to me that that's a matter then of national identity. An independent, sovereign Britain, free from the EU was more important than anything else, in their view, and they were willing to accept all sorts of collateral.damage to get it. Take examples like that and map that onto the NI situation. Fundamentally, it's a battle for identity, and that's why it's do deep seated.

[@AgeofAge]

To answer your question from a more practical context, Northern Ireland is far less prosperous than the Republic of Ireland. GDP is far lower, wages are lower, number of people drawing benefits are higher etc etc. Many people from the outside don't realize that Northern Ireland heavily relies on United Kingdom for welfare, benefits and services such as the NHS and so on. This means that the question of reunification nowadays is really more about whether or not the Republic of Ireland can support the region and absorb the costs that would inevitably come from reunification. People will talk all day long about religion, nationality etc etc but at the end of the day it is truly down to whether or not Republic of Ireland/EU is willing to pay the reunification costs. This is not to say there are not more serious issues of identity, nationality and religion but at the core it really just is down to money.

[@ckelly-rs3tc]

It's not really about religion tnh, more about political ideologies and identities

[@CrossFitterinRealtime2359]

Que espectacular canal, me encantaaaa que tambien hables espanol, soy de Venezuela pero ya tengo casi 10 years viviendo en esta hermosa Isla y me encanta aprender mas y mas de su historia. Ya me suscribi a tu canal me encanta...!! ya luego veo lo de los libros que tienes.

[@MaximilienRobespierre1]

Very interesting 👍

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Max! :-) I hope you are doing well. Getting so close to the much deserved 100k.

[@Todd.B]

I remember the IRA very well growing up, even though I live in the States, maybe it's just personal hopes but I don't see violence over this issue, it will just kind of hang on the teeter-tooter, however, like with Finland and NATO, one single event could trigger a fully supported reunification. Whether it's based on any real facts or history, just the word reunification sounds like a righting of a wrong. thx Prof. enjoy the weekend.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Todd. We might well be of the same age. I remember it very well too. Although I grew up in London, rather than Ireland, I lived just a couple of hundred metres from an army barracks that was seen as a prime IRA target. My road was closed off. I remember being told by my parents I had to walk all the way around the block to get from one of my road to another. It is very easy for those under 30 to not realise just how much an impact the Troubles had not only on the island of Ireland but also on the British mainland: including London, Birmingham and Manchester. Have a great weekend too! :-)

[@Todd.B]

@@JamesKerLindsay At the time, my interest was girls not world affairs so I just remember them always being in the news, but not really knowing anything about the conflict.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

:-)

[@Bdbtg28691]

As an Irish person I can't see it happening. Most Irish people have family/ friends in Britain or British family/ friends in Ireland. The only real societal differences that still exist would be between DUP/ TUV supporters and everyone else in UK and ROI.