KALININGRAD | Russia's Isolated Exclave?

Kaliningrad is the only part of Russia geographically separated from the rest of the Federation. Wedged between Lithuania and Poland it is more than 300 kilometres from the rest of the Russian Federation. Strategically vital for Russia as the headquartered of its Baltic fleet, the enclave came to international attention in June 2022 when the Lithuanian government imposed tough new EU-mandated restrictions of good crossing its territory into Kaliningrad. This has sparked a furious reaction from Moscow, which has vowed to retaliate and take actions that will have a negative effect on the Lithuanian people. But what exactly can it do? And what effects are the sanctions likely to have on Kaliningrad?
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Kaliningrad was founded in 1255 by the Teutonic Knights, a medieval German crusader military order. As Konigsberg, it would grow to become the heart of the German Kingdom of Prussia. However, after the First World War, it was separated from the rest of Germany under the Treaty of Versailles. However, everything changed in 1945. Following the end of the Second World War, the city was annexed by the Soviet Union, becoming an oblast or region of Soviet Russia. In this capacity, it became a strategically vital war warm port for the Baltic Fleet. But following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, it found itself geographically isolated from Russia. This isolation has been compounded following Poland and Lithuania's membership of the EU and NATO and deteriorating relations between Moscow and the West. All this raises serious questions about Kaliningrad, including the question of whether it could even look to secede.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
0:34 Enclaves and Exclaves in International Relations
2:10 Background to Kaliningrad
3:00 From Konigsberg to Kaliningrad
4:40 Kaliningrad under the USSR and Russia
7:48 EU-Lithuania Transit Restrictions on Kaliningrad
9:30 Russia Retaliation over Kaliningrad
11:16 Kaliningrad: A Russia-NATO Flashpoint?
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From German Königsberg to Soviet Kaliningrad amzn.to/3Ne6neI
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[@JamesKerLindsay]

Lithuania's decision to impose EU restrictions on the transit of various goods between Russia and the exclave of Kaliningrad has sparked a major showdown with Moscow, which is threatening major retaliation. But what exactly can Russia do about it? And will this growing isolation spark some sort of separatist movement in Kaliningrad? If so, how should the West respond? Thoughts and comments below.

[@catalinmarius3985]

I love that you started the history section from the 1200s, giving more context into the situation. As for the present, I doubt Russia would invade a NATO member state while being at war with Ukraine. I don't think that separatist movement in Kaliningrad would have any chance of success with the Russian Army present in the region. This situation makes me wonder, why didn't Moldova and Ukraine did the same thing with Transnistria? Kaliningrad has access to the sea, Transnistria doesn't have that luxury. Kaliningrad is Russian territory, Transnistria is Moldavian territory. Blocking all comerce and leaving Kaliningrad/Transnistria completely isolated would destroy their economy, which while Kaliningrad can be supported by Russia via the sea, Transnistria would completely colapse maybe even leading to the resignment of the separatist government. Ukraine is already at war with Russia so the treat of "serious consequences to protect the Russian interest" would be a joke while for Moldova, any Russian aggression from Transnistria would be met by the Ukrainian forces as well, with great chances for a Ukrainian victory since the Transnistrian forces are cut off from the rest of Russia. It would also free up more troops for Ukraine and secure their western front.

[@zeshanmahmood4958]

Was East Bengal, under the Nomenclature of Pakistan (West) proper also were a such Subnationalist rebellious Exclave as a provincial regionalist internal neglected externalised submissive territory before 1971?

[@NMJZ]

@@zeshanmahmood4958 Bangladesh, formerly known as East Bengal/East Pakistan was a Pakistani enclave situated in Indian territory. That region turning independent was of course the outcome of the Indo-Pak war of 1971. Yes, the region turned out to be rebellious because of the direction they took, and after action was taken by West Pakistan and then India, it ended up becoming independent. Whether or not it was neglected by the Pakistani government is debatable.

[@NMJZ]

It is in Russia's interests to keep a firm hold on Kaliningrad, considering the warm water port, Soviet-era demographic tampering, the Baltic fleet and of course the Russian constitutional mandate. But it is also in their interest to not have NATO declare war on them as a result of invading Lithuania, who in turn has vested interests in opposing Russian military action and seeing Ukraine emerge victorious in their defence of their lands. If these interests are not addressed between them, it will logically lead to conflict, so I hope the matter is settled long before that happens. My opinion is that the West should back Lithuania, because it is their sovereign right to decide what passes through their lands. Russia taking action against Lithuania would, if at all possible, make matters even worse between the West and Russia, so Russia can do nothing. Lastly, considering the demographics of Kaliningrad right now and also the Russian military personnel stationed there, an independent Kaliningrad is a nothing but a distant pipe dream.

[@shasha1873]

Russia will win this.

[@tirididjdjwieidiw1138]

it’s very ironic for russia to talk about other countries “violating international law”

[@ymir5468]

Yeah it is quite a fact, that countries who break international law the most are usually the first to complain about it when other states do it.

[@logikus8638]

Not more ironic than western countries doing so. None has violated it more than them in history since the time international law was even established as a thing.

[@GeorgeFafa]

Why is that? Which international laws have they violated?

[@ymir5468]

@@GeorgeFafa Western countries break international law quite frequently. The most severe violation in the last 20 years was the invasion of Iraq i would say which violated the UN charter but the list is actually pretty long.

[@GeorgeFafa]

@@ymir5468 This I know. But the muppet on top wrote : "it’s very ironic for russia to talk about other countries “violating international law". And I was wondering why, because I do not know Russia to be violating any international laws.

[@solracer66]

One small detail missing here is how much of a refugee situation the expulsion of Germans from Kaliningrad was. In less than two years half a million people were forced to relocate and not all of it in an orderly manner and more than a few died as a result.

[@ubroberts5541]

All true.

[@lucianboar3489]

"Just" a part of the larger 12 million forcefully exiled German population of the former Eastern lands...

[@solracer66]

@@lucianboar3489 Yes, this is true though this was the largest single case of exile.

[@lucianboar3489]

@@revert6417 it's fucking politicians, enough with the "slavs" and "germans", it's just people that have their lives ruined by psychopats who push "ethnicities" instead of getting a life.

[@vgames6792]

@@solracer66 Really? Larger then Armenians in 1915? That relocation resulted as well "more then few deaths" So it is really small detail that could be missed, as on many places were expeled germans, hungarians after defeat of NAZI germany(that is the detail that has been missed)

[@imCurveee]

Wow, its almost like invading nearby sovereign territories and threatening your neighbours doesn't make you any friends. Who would've thought...

[@johnbest4513]

Coz the USA and Britain can talk can't they. Or the Germans or the French. Come on man.

[@imCurveee]

@@johnbest4513 Please let me know which part of my comment suggested that American or British colonialism is/was okay. Thanks. By the way, I am neither one of those nationalities. So thanks again.

[@uschurch]

@@johnbest4513 trying to change the subject, aren't we?

[@angelaomeara1866]

are you crazy or what, Tony Blair was given a Knighthood in the UK this week, remember him...now to be addressed as Sir Tony Blair, the leader of a nation that invaded the Iraq and consequently murdering thousands of innocent women and children....seems like he made plenty of friends....only bigots blame Russia for today's war

[@oo--7714]

He isn't wrong though, in this world might makes right, russia isn't on top of the world so they are under more scrutiny.

[@ophthalmophobicnpc8002]

I personally am thankful we live in a world where a country as small as Lithuania can actually implement EU sanctions without the fear of being invaded by its bigger neighbour. NATO allows Eastern European countries to stand their ground and not be bullied into submission by Russia.

[@bartek7660]

@Anonymous Bosch 🤪

[@miceshooter]

@Anonymous Bosch It’s not like the Soviets did much better in Afghanistan

[@sharwama992]

@@miceshooter you guys sabotaged them no body was helping the Taliban this time and they still won

[@miceshooter]

@Anonymous Bosch Are you saying that the women who were able to get jobs and make a living for themselves were cheering on the Taliban as they were forced back home? Also the communist government still met the same fate, regardless of if they held on longer.

[@pogo1140]

@Anonymous Bosch Did it? Russia/USSR started withdrawing from Afghanistan on 15 May 1988 through 15 February 1989. The USSR fell in 25 December 1991. "many years being 2 years later and the Taliban controlled Afghanistan by 1992.

[@ernestgasp]

I would not call it transit restrictions but special supply chain operation.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Very amusing! :-)

[@rogerexwood6608]

Like the ‘special maintenance operation’ Russia is currently doing on the NordStream1 pipeline….

[@ernestgasp]

@Anonymous Bosch Pootin got old twenty years ago and he still refuse to stop injecting botox in his face. 🤷🏾‍♂️

[@ernestgasp]

@Anonymous Bosch Oh yes, he is. Does that make pootin less of a genocide?

[@ernestgasp]

@Anonymous Bosch If russians are so uncomfortable in Ukraine they can make their bags and go to Russia. No one is keeping them inside.

[@GBWCo]

The whole area of Prussia being effectively ethnically cleansed after the war, is a fascinating subject. I have always thought that because the Prussians were very militaristic, and the German Army during the war had a huge over-representation of Prussian born generals, that the Allies came to the conclusion that for the security of Europe that country could no longer be allowed to exist. The fact that currently up to 99.2% of Kaliningrad's population are post war Slavic immigrants is a real testament to the long lasting political mess such huge demographic change creates.

[@HedgehogZone]

It was a holocaust against germany!

[@thepro44]

That’s such a good analysis of the situation I like your way of thinking

[@Max.J.H.]

The main point of making "Kaliningrad" was simply Stalin's will to have more power over the region.

[@yarovitek]

Southern half of Eastern Prussia was inhabited by Polish-speaking Masurians and Warmiaks (the former being Protestants, the latter being Catholics) and wasn't as thoroughly cleansed as the Polish state, although ruled by Stalin's puppets, still considered those people as fellow Poles. In fact, the largest wave of Masurian and Warmiak emigration happened in 1970s to 1980s when (by then fabulously rich) Western Germany introduced generous immigration terms for former German citizens and their descendants. Many Masurians and Warmiaks remained in Poland though, but they are no longer a distinctive group due to assimilation, intermarriage and unfortunately often huge social stigma. There are even still functioning Lutheran parishes in Polish parts of former Eastern Prussia, though only minority of Masurians' descendants practice that faith.

[@mksensej8701]

Is that Russian did all over last 200 years and now pretending they own everything . The Orc chief in his vision think of what tragedy is to go back where they come from .

[@jaycristoval6155]

It is too laughable when Russia talks about Lithuania violating international law...... is there any international law that Russia has not violated in the last 10 years????

[@legokingtm9462]

That's just what every countries says.. if it's illegal then it's fair to point out.

[@357-swagnumultramagax9]

Putin be trolling bro

[@bobdeverell]

Jay, what an ignorant comment. Please provide facts rather than opinion.

[@jaycristoval6155]

@@bobdeverell you're so right....this "special military operation" is perfectly legal. And whoever said it was a crime to bomb kindergardens and maternity hospitals???

[@philipmullins6235]

@@bobdeverell It is obvious to anyone who can accept the truth that the current Russian invasion into Ukraine is violating international law

[@whatewa5107]

this was really informative, thank you for providing the historical context too!

[@peterkephart7955]

Thank you, professor, for continually sharing your knowledge of various geo-political issues and the historical precedents surrounding them in easily understandable terms readily accessible to the layman. You are providing a genuine and valuable service to the world, and I, for one, appreciate you. Cheers from the US.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Peter! Really appreciated. I do try my best to come up with something at least half-intelligent to say on world affairs each week. Not always easy. But I try. :-) I hope all is well over there. Very warmest regards from London! 🇬🇧🇺🇸

[@aguysaid5457]

Man, am I happy I have that KZbin bell turned on, I was thinking about this topic for a week now. Thank you for the video professor!

[@grzzz2287]

Another excellent and informative video from the knowledgeable Prof James. Keep them coming!

[@watcher8582]

I often think of Kaliningrad, 80 years ago known as Königsberg, because it's the home of Immanuel Kant. It's so funny to think that a then Prussian lived in such an Eastern German city, he'd be a Russian today!

[@shasha1873]

Losing wars against Russia has consequences.

[@dittmannrudolfrohr2149]

He would be German citizen of the Russian Federation today.

[@B_B463]

The Germans were kicked out and became refugees in the German mainland. The most brutal ethnic cleansing in European history happened to the Germans in eastern Europe who were literally deported back to the 'new Germany'

[@willc1294]

He would've been either killed or expelled like any other German living there and replaced by Russian planters.

[@Zeroni82]

And germans in middle ages took many slavic countries even berlin was brljin , and ask luzice serbs in dresden, about germans genocide. Russia justice and right!!!

[@dainomite]

Thanks for diving into the history and present state of Kaliningrad, James! Appreciate all your hard and continued work!

[@kayzeaza]

I’m surprised this channel doesn’t have millions of views yet. Great format and accurate information!

[@fidenemini111]

I'm not. People more often find comfort in ignorance.

[@TheSwedishHistorian]

its not entertainment so it misses out unfortunately

[@dominicyelin]

It obviously does have millions of views, he has nearly a hundred thousand subscribers. But you mean per video. You said channel but you meant per video. I don't think 200,000 on this video is bad going but I guess we all have different perspectives. It seems the most important thing is to hate humanity and act superior in this comment thread and that's very, very clever. Carry on, kids. So refreshing. Not at all what I expected, lol. How are you always so surprising, humanity? PAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH sorry I couldn't keep up the act, sorry.

[@famejay7318]

Because it is very UK oriented.

[@tuyanaonnet5251]

his voice is unpleasant

[@gooner72]

Nicely done Prof Ker-Lindsay, very interesting lesson and it should help those less informed on this subject understand the delicate situation and the importance of this small semi exclave.

[@paulsmegal2867]

Very informative, enlightening and deeply well thought out . Thank you

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed.

[@highphysics3617]

An excellent presentation. Superbly narrated,and,extremely interesting from a historic sense.

[@justasklimas9572]

As a bit of context that will maybe be interesting to some, during the first week of the (full scale) war there were many public calls in Lithuania to stop all transit to/from Kaliningrad. The response of the government was clear: this transit is governed by an EU treaty with Russia, thus Lithuania does not have the right to unilaterally stop any of it. So Lithuania applying EU sanctions is consistent with its position held since the beginning. (note: the Lithuanian government is very much pro-Ukraine, pro-EU and anti-Russia)

[@justasklimas9572]

@Anonymous Bosch Sorry if I was unclear, by "the right to unilaterally stop any of it" I meant the right for Lithuania to stop the transit of Russian goods without a corresponding EU decision. Not about the possibility of Lithuania ignoring EU sanctions against Russia, something it would never even want to do, especially not under the current government.

[@mksensej8701]

@Anonymous Bosch Hungary play Russia's interest because they feel sheltered and have economical interest . Lithuania does not .

[@bohomazdesign725]

@Anonymous Bosch Because Orban is Putins puppet. Thats why.

[@josefowitzer]

Countries can still do a lot. If Lithuania said no, there would be no EU sanctions. It could have still turned the blind eye and waited to see what Brussels says. If Brussels was nagging they could ask for further clarification regarding the international agreement. Furthermore, Vilnius could point out security concerns and demand exemption. Then, Lithuania could look back and examine the situation of half a year ago, when Poland and Hungary were reprimanded and threatened with sanctions for abandoning the European democratic and civil values. As those two got away with it, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that the situation with Russia is not about values but about naked power. Obviously, Lithuania took the opposite approach, coming from its deeply-seated, long-standing, hostility towards Russia. Unsurprising as it may be, it is still a very risky position given the fact that, under any scenario, a conflict with Russia will turn the Baltic states into fierce battlegrounds. This was the reason why the Estonians raised their concerns with the NATO defense plan a few days ago. Perhaps I am stupid, I can’t grasp the logic of EU’s strategic moves here.

[@mksensej8701]

@Anonymous Bosch If USA /Nato and EU are so bad why Hungary asked to join them? As we know environmentalists in Germany asked not long time ago to close the coal and nuclear power stations and fall for the Russian gas trap. So Hungary to expect the same from Russia as they played them well without escape. Orban is sold to Russia pretending that he is following Hungary interest for his political agenda .

[@MyLateralThawts]

An excellent analysis of the current problems regarding Kaliningrad. As my family, both paternal and maternal, originated from East Prussia, I naturally have some interest on current developments. The oral history from family members passed on to me were that the family lived there as long as they were aware. We have German names and most of the survivors from the Second World War settled in West Germany. Recently I underwent a DNA test which revealed something surprising. It turns out that I’m only 11.8% French (Huguenot) and German included with the 29.5% that is broadly Northwestern European. There’s no Polish or Lithuanian in my genetic makeup just a statement that I am 70.1% Eastern European. I can only conclude that my family were overwhelmingly descended from the old Prussians, which is truly interesting in that both sides of my family came from different regions. I find this especially interesting because the East Prussians were the ones primarily punished for Germany’s sins by losing their lands, when in fact there weren’t that many true ethnic Germans in the area, but people who became culturally German. It may seem a bit fantastic, but I currently live in Canada, within walking distance of an aboriginal tribe. That tribe rarely saw any people of European descent barely a century and a half ago, yet right now everyone in the tribe has Christian names and only speak English. In appearance they are very much native Canadians, which differs from the Prussians, who, not unlike other Baltic peoples, could physically pass for German. I am thinking of approaching my alma matter, the University of Alberta, where I studied, among other subjects, anthropology. I think this might turn into a good article for National Geographic.

[@jeanjacques9980]

Thank you for the explanation and the historical perspective. I have been wondering.

[@richardsimms251]

Terrific discussion and explanation of that history. Thank you.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed!

[@FredoRockwell]

Wow, great video! I hadn't thought about how winter could be a pinch point for Kaliningrad! I think any meaningful independence movement is unlikely though. I've actually spoken to some supporters for independence in there and even they have told me such a movement is unlikely to succeed. Almost everyone in Kaliningrad is economically dependent on the military (directly or indirectly), and even though there are people who wave old-fashioned Germany flags and call the region East Prussia, in reality nearly everyone in Kaliningrad is ethnically identical to the people in the rest of Western Russia.

[@Splat654]

As local i confirm that, unfortunately this is true. Though i still know very little about dependance on military.

[@whitelilycalla]

Who are you to even speak about “ the independence” there? What country are you from? Does a part of it “needs an independence”?

[@FredoRockwell]

@@whitelilycalla I'm a person leaving a comment on a KZbin video, just like you. I'm not advocating anything, but I've done some relevant research on this issue for a video for my channel which I thought might be worth sharing. I decided against making the video though after speaking to a few people. Are you from Kaliningrad? If so, and you think I'm wrong, please get in touch as I would love to talk to you. 🙂

[@JamesKerLindsay]

He was making a very valid point. Don’t be quite so defensive. Fredo has a great channel looking at independence movements. He knows a bit about these things.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much Fredo. I rather thought you would have had some contacts with the local movement. I do hope you make a video on this. It would be so interesting to get a better insight into the attitudes. Although how likely they will be to speak openly is another question. But you are right, even though there may be some thoughts if breaking away, it seems hard to see his it could happen for a whole just if economical, political and strategic reasons. And the idea of a separate cultural identity does seem a bit far-fetched given that the basis for that different identity, the German population, has disappeared. Still, one can certainly see the possibility of something evolving.

[@brangute1]

well done ! Thank you for your report! And best greetings from Lithuania. Let's hope for the better future! Dalia

[@checkeredflagfilms]

excellent breakdown and appreciate the historic backstory

[@mokomdane4297]

Very Educative thank you very much.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@constancio2306]

Excellent commentary and analysis as always!

[@scaredsanty857]

Thank you for covering the topic!

[@pierresaelen3097]

Thank you, professor. The only thing I missed was in your introduction, because maybe the most intricate example of exclaves is missing: the mosaic of Belgian and Dutch exclaves on the Dutch-Belgian border in the Netherlands called Baarle. Baarle-Hertog (Belgian parts) and Baarle-Nassau (Dutch parts). en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baarle However, we Belgians and Dutch are hell bent on keeping this centuries old curiosity out of the international news and thus boring, viable, friendly and collaborative for many centuries to go.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Great examples! :-) unfortunately there were a few I had to miss out. I’d really have liked to do the second order enclaves too - enclaves within enclaves!

[@pierresaelen3097]

@@JamesKerLindsay If you would ever like to make such a video, I can search and translate some content in Dutch for you. The Covid-19 border closures and lockdowns were challenging, but both governments quickly decided to treat Baarle as a single village, so their border closure rules only applied to people living outside Baarle. For the people of Baarle no border restrictions applied within their village. To me that approach makes common sense.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@@pierresaelen3097 Thanks so much. That’s really kind! :-)

[@maikotter9945]

@@pierresaelen3097 Moin aus dem Lauenburgischen [/Elbe] ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. Heute Nachmittag wird Uwe Seelers öffentliche Trauerfreier im Volksparkstadion statffinden. Geburt: 4. November 1936; Hamburg; Deutsches Reich; faschischtische Herrschaftzeit Tod: 21. Juli 2022; Norderstedt; Land Schleswig-Holstein; Bundesrepublik Deutschland Lebensdauer: 85 Jahre; 8 Monate; 18 Kalendertage Witwe: Ilka Seeler Kinder: 3 Töchter Enkelkinder: 7; zum Beispiel Levin Öztunali (türkischsprachiger Familienname) Vereine Hamburger Sportverein von 1887 e. V. Cork City, Republik Irland 1966; WM in England: 2. Platz 1958; WM in Schweden; 3. Platz 1970; WM in Mexiko; 4. Platz 1962; WM in Chile; Viertelfinale EM 1968 in Italien Vorausscheidung Gruppe 4 Der Gruppensieger fuhr zur Endrunde. 1. Platz: Jugoslawien [nicht im Ostblock] 2. Platz: BR Deutschland [mit dem Saarland] 3. Platz: VR Albanien [Religionsverbot] Titel als Amateur 1 * DFB Meister: 1960 9 * Norddeutscher Meister mehrfach "Torschützenkönig" der Oberliga Nord vermeintliches Abschiedsspiel am 1. Mai 1972 im Volksparkstadion; Freie und Hansestadt Hamburg; Bundesrepublik Deutschland 2 DFB Titel zeitlich kurz Uwe Seelers vermeintliches Abschiedsspiel EM 1972 WM 1974 1. BRD 2. Holland ... 6. DDR [Deutscher Fußballverband = DFV] ... BRD - DDR 0:1 [Volksparkstadion] Jugoslawien - Zaire; 8:0 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. Baarle ist hauptsächlich vom Gebiet des Königreiches der Niederlande umgeben. Zu Flandern gehört auch ein Gebiet mit zum Beispiel Calais [V.) Französische Republik]. Luxemburg, als ein Gesamtgebiet, ist ~ 10 000 km² groß. Es ist aufgteilt in ... LU: Großherzogtum gleichen Namens (~ 2 589 km²) B: Provinz gleichen Namens D: zum Beispiel Prüm F: müsste ich genauer nachgucken!

[@terryvarta9306]

Once again thank you Prof, for your insightful prognosis of the issue. I do hope Russia does not act stupid on this matter

[@Zoza15]

Knowing Putin's unpredictability, we can expect anything. But most of Russian's warning were thin air bluff talk lately.

[@lvoldum]

Always so good to get a bigger historical perspective!

[@elizabethmorton4904]

Thank you so much for a very helpful, and also clear and concise presentation of all the most important info on this topic. I heard about the situation of Kaliningrad and Lithuania on the news, and it worried me given the existing tensions. But I find following all the news regarding the current Russian war against Ukraine too much for my mental health, and hence have avoided doing the necessary reading to really understand it properly. Your video tells me everything I wanted to know in a calm, fact-based approach that I very much appreciate.

[@willbarnstead3194]

This will just bleed Russia a little more as it struggles to maintain this area along with all of its other foreign commitments, during a war that it can’t call a war.

[@mtsenskmtsensk5113]

Will Barnstead There is a military operation to surgically remove Fascism, and to liberate fellow Russians being killed by a Ukrainian Nazis government installed by the USA. Then there is the proxy war against US backed terrorism, which was planned in Washington to kill Russians and advertise weapons for sale. Hopefully the Russians will again protect Europe from Fascism, as it did against Hitler and as it did against Napoleon before that.

[@newwonderer]

wow, really waiting for winter now to see results

[@mrastrogastro]

Everything is well said, James! This whole subject is more complex than it looks. Remember that in its current position, Russia is not attacking anyone but defending itself from America and NATO. Public media information is not relevant; we need to have more deep historical context. Unfortunately, this is affecting all of us. Everybody wants peace, especially Russia. And remember who freed Europe from Nazi Germany... Don't mix apples and oranges. All best to everybody!

[@regolith1350]

This was an excellent video. Informative and objective. Thanks!

[@Ikbeneengeit]

Russia crying about trade sanctions, while they invade a sovereign nation and commit war crimes. 🤦‍♀️

[@Tewhill357]

They ought to declare themselves a Kantian city state governed by the Categorical Imperative.

[@drmodestoesq]

At least the trains would run on time.

[@josefowitzer]

😂 a good one☝🏻

[@francisfreyre]

Thank you very much for this complete analysis of Kaliningrad and what the real problem is or the consequences of all these disagreements. I did enjoy it!

[@topsyturvy1982]

A very informative piece on what’s going on at the moment. History is so important to understand the present situation with Russia and Ukraine.

[@Meckload]

Great stuff! I was suprised that the list of famous enclaves did not include Nahwa - a second order-enclave (or “counter-enclave”) of the United Arab Emirates in the Omani enclave of Madah which, in return, is again an enclave in the United Arab Emirates ;)

[@dylanvogler2165]

There is also whole Baarle-Nassau/Baarle-Hertog stuff between the Netherlands and Belgium. With it being a Belgium enclave, but having Dutch counter enclaves in it. The border over there is a mess lol

[@jeffsmith7369]

The EU should support any separatist movement in Stalingrad. After all Russia is highly supportive of separatists.

[@bobdeverell]

We have to be careful Russia does not destroy, or at least severely damage the EU, either economically or militarily. It seems capable of doing both, given analysis of Ukraine SMO. Cool heads are needed, not wishful rhetoric.

[@VladVexler]

Succinct, clear and so helpful as always.

[@danavoicu7981]

i really love your videos... so good... all i need to know synthesized so well

[@MaxoticsTV]

Great video as always! Surprised you didn't mention that China also wants to put Lithuania in its place. To me, that's the greatest risk--China providing support in such an action.

[@redhammer9910]

And Serbia is now fully armed with Chinese weapons. Bulgarians having ousted their pro European conservative government after only 6 months in office is a red flag that cannot be ignored. With Montenegro facing ethnic and religious fragmentation the opportunists may see a Mediteranian port for both Russia and China. Greece would not be happy !

[@MaxoticsTV]

@@redhammer9910 Yes! That too! The Prof should take on that general topic of copy-cat "special operations"

[@nobody4y]

@N Fels China just throwing a tentrum every time some one supports Taiwan

[@nian60]

Lol, Ruzia crying over international law when they themselves are breaking lots of international laws...Ruzia is like a toddler.

[@FlamingBasketballClub]

Both EU and Russia are breaking international laws lol

[@legokingtm9462]

Stop supporting terrorist in Turkey Yay

[@karmpuscookie]

Excellent and informative. Thank you.

[@danne5788]

Loving the videos ! Keep them coming.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot! :-)

[@SodziausPilietis]

Prussians (old prussians or yatvingi tribes)were baltic, they got assimilated with germans (teutons). Later with Von Bismarck germans created kingdom after land’s name. It always been called Mažoji Lietuva (little Lithuania) or karaliaučius et cetera.

[@Bagazille]

for being pedantic Kleinlitauen/Preussisch Litauen, has only been called the "Regierungsbezirk Gumbinnen", which is the eastern part of nowadays "kaliningrad oblast". Most people of Memel/Klaipeda were bilingual german/lithuanian (or precisely "zemaitisch") til 1945. The specific german dialekt of East Prussia had a distinctiv "zemaitic" melody, and the typical german east prussian family names aswell (Jonischkeit, Schygulla, Jegottke, Kasulke etc.)... the rest of East Prussia was never settlet by Zemaite/Schemaiten but by Pruzze, over the centuries they took over german languague but gave them their own name and many customs... a very peaceful ethnogenesis

[@andrewsarantakes639]

Great video. Thanks for highlighting this Russian political & geograhic oddity. Russian leaders I am sure expected physical isolation of this region. Lithuania is a soverign nation and open & close their borders as they see fit. Access to the sea essentially makes any Russian points moot. Again thanks for your objectively solid content!! 👍

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much Andrew. It is a fascinating situation, isn't it? You are right. They must have been thinking this through. But I have to say that I am not actually that sure what Russia can do about the situation. It seems rather weak. Any military action would be a hugely dangerous escalation. And there's little it can now do economically and diplomatically. And, frankly, and cyber and hybrid operations it could carry out it is probably doing already. Then again, Moscow may have kept a few things back. It will be very interesting to see how Russia does react in the period ahead.

[@Arniux17]

@@dim2389 hiding ? What do u mean ?

[@mksensej8701]

@@dim2389 Is not very clear for you?. They are fed up with Russia and their imperialistic plans.

[@blackchrysler]

When Lithuania gained their independence in 1990 the only way that Russia was able to agree was when Lithuania agreed to allow railway passage through to Kaliningrad. So they signed a treaty that allowed railway passage through Lithuania and now Lithuania is violating that treaty. This means Lithuania's independence is no longer valid and they are not a "sovereign nation" anymore.

[@polaspo3828]

@@blackchrysler Well correct me if I'm wrong, but the agreement was between Lithuania and ssrs, and as there is no ssrs anymore your argument is also not valid anymore, furthermore transit policies were renegotiated when Lithuania was joining European Union ...

[@peterpayne2219]

Outstanding content, thank you!

[@brianobrain8985]

Excellent documentary. Clear and precise.

[@TO-doubleG]

Professor, thank you for yet another interesting and timely video. Given that you mentioned Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakchivan, may I ask you to share your thoughts (in your next videos) about the 10 November Trilateral Agreement between Azerbaijan Armenia and Russia which says that "the Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the security of transport connections between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to arrange unobstructed movement of persons, vehicles and cargo in both directions (9th clause). Although the word "corridor" is not mentioned in that clause, the context, especially the exact wording as with the Lachin Corridor (mentioned in the 6th clause), makes it clear that it's a corridor, IMHO. Obviously, Armenia interprets it the other way. However, the keyword here, I think, is "unobstructed". Anyway, I would appreciate if one of your next videos would be dedicated to this problem. Thank you!

[@maikotter9945]

"der rote Zwergplanet" ... "Sowjetska" ... :)

[@TO-doubleG]

@@maikotter9945 which means?

[@frankswarbrick7562]

I had been wondering for a while how/why Königsberg got separated from the rest of Germany/Prussia by that Polish area. Thanks for answering so I didn't have to do more research! 🙂

[@erichhartmann6926]

France and Britain hated Germany so much, they basically created a reason for the 2nd World war

[@verakiseleva1638]

WW2 results are prohibited for discussions. At least in Kaliningrad, where I live since birth)

[@peter-8483]

Taking German territory, killing and deporting Germans, ensured ww2.

[@TheLocalLt]

It was formerly part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and was conquered by the renewed Poland in 1918-19 and then confirmed as Polish by the Treaty of Versailles, along with Danzig becoming an international city state. Germany however never agreed to this until the mid-1920s and even then only begrudgingly.

[@Ho_Lii_Fuk]

@@verakiseleva1638 Lol of course. Russia being Russia is nothing new to anyone. Some media told that people in Kaliningrad have grown increasingly upset about Russia. Can you give any insight in what's happening in there?

[@Wildboy789789]

This is a fantastic video, i learned a ton

[@user-lm9zi7je8h]

Very interesting as always!

[@Gilder-von-Schattenkreuz]

Let me do that way Shortrt. 1. What happened: Thats Simple. Lithuania Started Enforcing EU Sanctions. Which means that certain Russian Goods and certain Russian Individuals are no longer Allowed to enter EU Territory. This Includes traveling from Russia to Kaliningrad through EU Territoriy. 2. What can Moscow do about it: Pretty much nothing really. Russia is already Hostile. And is already doing what it can to Damage the West wherever Possible. So there is nothing more Russia can really do at this Point. Going to War would mean Russia would be Roflstomped. And any other Actions are already either taken or are planned to be taken due to Sanctions over Ukraine. 3. What does it mean for Kaliningrad: Not too much really. Not all Goods are Sanctioned. And what is Sanctioned is not required to Survive. So Kaliningrad will Suffer an Economic Downfall. As many Industries will be unable to get Ressources. And the Living Standard will drop massively as alot of Luxuries cant be Procured. But beyond that there isnt much happening.

[@verakiseleva1638]

As a Kaliningrad citizen, I disagree about “nothing would happen”. We already have high prices for live products and goods. Moreover, our government might “accidentally force building Baltiyskaya atomic power plant”. It feels quire frightening to live there, honestly, cuz I don’t know if our government is going to attack Lithuania and nearest NATO countries 🥲

[@Gilder-von-Schattenkreuz]

@@verakiseleva1638 As I said above. Economic Downfall and Reduction of Living Standard. The Nothing Big will happen is in terms of Geopolitics etc. Russia cant hope to Win a War with Nato. So it will not take any Military Action beyond Threats and Stationing more Troops. Especially when the Russian Army is already this hard Pressed in Ukraine. Right now. Russia does not even have the Forces to launch any meaningful Offensive against Lithuania as it would be Crushed under the Boots of the Nato Response Forces that were Stationed there after Russia Invaded Crimea. And which were Reinforced after Russia Invaded Ukraine in February. But the Bigger Play behind this is actually a different thing. Russia right now is Playing on Time. Because once Winter comes. Russia will be in a Good Position to Threaten with completely canceling all Deliveries of Natural Gas and Oil etc. The EU will need at least 2 Years to change its Supply Lines away from Russia and towards other Countries. So this Winter will be the best Chance for Russia to try and use this Leverage to make the EU Support a Peace Deal with Ukraine in which Ukraine basicly abandons the Territory currently held by Russia. And Russia Shortening the Gas Deliveries was a Warning to the EU that Russia will do that. So they should get on Friendly Terms. Russias attempt to somehow pick up Negotiations again and display some readyness to talk about remaining Ukraine Joining the EU after Donbass etc has been Annexed by Russia. Is also moving towards that Target. The EU with this move gave an Answer to that. Demonstrating to Russia that Winter is not only a Problem for the EU. But that the EU can also make Winter hard for Russia. Because Kaliningrad is the only Russian Port in the West which is Usable in Winter. Meaning that once the Ports in the North are Frozen over. Russia could be Cut off from all of its Trade if the EU Decides to Run a Full Embargo on Russia. Thus if Russia wanted to do any Trade with Countries over the Atlantic. It would need to first Transport everything to its East Coast and then Ship everything from there. Which would be Ridiculously Expensive and would massively reduce the amount of Goods Russia can even Sell because they just dont have the Infastructure to do that. And the Prices will be very high. Especially because most of the Russian Industry and Ressource Exploitation is in the West. So even the stuff going to India is usually Shipped from Ports in the West. Basicly. The EU tells Russia. If you Cut our Gas Supplies in Winter to try and cause our Industry to suffer massive Standstills. We will Cut your only Warm Water Port in the West. And wreck the vast Majority of your Trade with Neutral Countries. Russia is hoping that it can basicly take as much Territory as possible right now. And then try and Normalize Relations while keeping its Gains. And the EU and US effectively made Clear that this wont happen. And that the EU and US will remain Hostile to Russia until all Ukranian Territory is returned. So Russia should not hope the West Abandons Ukraine if Russia threatens to Cut gas in the Winter.

[@wildcatmahone-md6me]

ROFLSTOMPED...I like that.

[@maciekszymanski6898]

The most problem of Kaliningrad is it's role as a military base with nukes. There's no real economy there, hardly any manufacturing or agriculture. Those million people lives on donations and shipping from the mainland Russia. The best way to make this region livable and prosperous is "hongkongisation" which means demilitarisation and loosing ties with Moscow. Still being formally part of Russia they can establish greater cooperation and integration with the EU. If not the other way is terminate any possible exchange with them and long term isolation.

[@henrybn14ar]

The HK model would never be accepted by the EU. Same as Northern Ireland.

[@maciekszymanski6898]

@@henrybn14ar Misunderstanding: integration doesn't mean membership so EU has nothing to accept or not.

[@northbreeze0111]

To be fair, it's crazy that it was made part of the Russian Sfsr in the first place. Why was this done? I've never understood this choice by Stalin. If they wanted it to be part of the SU, it would've been way more logic to incorporate it to Lithuanian SSR.

[@kerstas10]

@@northbreeze0111 stalin deported 300.000 Lithuanians to Siberia. These baltic regions allways were pain in the ass for Russias empire.

[@northbreeze0111]

@@kerstas10 yeah but Stalin was Georgian. That's the most crazy part. I know about all the deportations but seems like he was a wannabe Russian. At least you don't have too many Russians in Lithuania. Estonia and Latvia is way worse off.

[@erichalvorsen8645]

I love your videos! Just discovered this channel. It's great!

[@brucevilla]

Thanks for Uploading.

[@nian60]

If Lithuania gets attacked, I hope the Swedish air force and Navy engages. It's one of the closest large militaries that can engage. Sure, it would mess up our NATO membership. But Turkey is already doing that.

[@konsum949]

Sweden wont intervene directly before membership is granted, but NATO Will,just because they are obliged to do so. Bottom line, Russia have no right to use sovereign territory of Lithuania as they please. On the contrary, they Will be grateful that food and medicine can be transported to Kaliningrad. Besides, there is no military option on the table for Russia, they Will do what Russia always does. Bully and threat…

[@nian60]

@@konsum949 I wouldn't be so sure that we Swedes wouldn't intervene. I can't guarantee that we would either. But it's not a given that we won't engage. We are close, and can act fast if we want to. After we're in NATO, it's gloves off of course.

[@slyderyder3491]

@@nian60 🤣😂

[@nian60]

@@slyderyder3491 Looks like my reply to you was removed. That's a shame. It was quite creative, if I might say so myself. It involved body parts, weapons and various actions.

[@philipmullins6235]

What side is Turkey really on ? , their membership with NATO doesn't appear very stable at the moment and Turkey could be the next major news story .

[@ysbee]

Alaska IS an ENCLAVE in Canada! Wow, this is eye-opening fact we usually dismiss. Thank you for presenting us these grounded-to-earth reality!

[@richdobbs6595]

It is a semi-exclave.

[@mcaddicts]

The US does have an enclave within Canada the Northwest angle.

[@natquesenberry6368]

There's also that town in Washington state (Port Roberts, or something like that) which extends down from BC and is accessible only by boat and by driving through Canada. Thankfully, Canadians are pretty friendly.

[@ysbee]

@@natquesenberry6368 Oh, my... Double Wow!! Better check our own cities where they belong to. My city Honolulu is in the US's 50th state, Hawaii. But someday, China will claim that the China Town in the Honolulu downtown might belong to China?! 😆

[@natquesenberry6368]

@@ysbee A Russian politician wants Alaska and the former settlement at Ft. Ross (CA) to be returned to the motherland. Of course, I imagine there are also some who say that Honolulu has been a part of China, since ancient times.

[@marlenfras5490]

Thank you. You have filled in a lot of blanks for me. Good reporting and maps. Thank you. Go Democracy.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@fb150185]

As always great content

[@garygraham8373]

except the audio is crap

[@stephengrimmer35]

The Russians have it in for Lithuania in particular, as it was the 1st Soviet state to rebel and gain independence in the face of armed (and deadly) Soviet opposition. They were an example to all subsequent 'defector' states, from Estonia to Ukraine to the Stans, and I'm sure the Russians would like payback.

[@AlexP-jz9sg]

That’s nonsense. Russia is not the Soviet Union, however Lithuania is now messing with citizens on Russian territory because NATO is mad that their proxy war isn’t going their way.

[@henrybn14ar]

The EU has wrecked the economies of the Baltic states.

[@TheLocalLt]

Thanks for the video Dr Ker Lindsay! You really said it all here, Königsburg and East Prussia had an incredibly rich history. The original German colonization of the “wild” eastern Baltic region, of which Germany only still held East and West Prussia by 1914, was a major inspiration behind the renewed German attempts to gain back German-founded cities such as Riga during 1914-1918 in WWI, 1919 in the Latvia Civil War, and 1941-45 in WWII. Ultimately this irredentism would backfire and permanently cost Germany any presence in the entire eastern Baltic, along with the expulsion of all Baltic and Prussian Germans. Interestingly Germany still did have to officially give up all territorial claims in the now-Kaliningrad Oblast as a Soviet condition for the 1990 reunification. Actually, on that subject, I recently read a very interesting piece from 2018 by I believe a Finnish think tank, which suggested that Kaliningrad had not been explicitly given to Russia, even in 1990. The piece made the case that, in a contingency where Russian forces are no longer present in Kaliningrad, it could therefore be made an international city-state under EU or NATO protection without violating Russia’s territorial integrity. Although that last point is likely untrue, as it’s default recognized as part of Russia even if not explicitly, and the fact that this particular idea seems pretty much pie-in-the-sky, I did find it a refreshingly bold move to even publicize such an idea. In any case it’s probably moot as I just can’t see Russia ever withdrawing from Kaliningrad. Anyway you really did say it all in this video, thanks for covering the entire history of the city as it provides important context to the ongoing standoff, and thanks as always for the video professor!

[@stefangibacaivastani]

Mr. Prof Ker-Lindsay thank you on comprihensive look, and carefully desecting this topic of current Euro-Russian Crissis, with indirect American involwment.My question is , where do you see China in this current situation? From my standpoint very well spent almost 13 minutes of my life. Much obliged.

[@paulsmegal2867]

Very interesting, enlightening and informative

[@rpgbb]

Maybe a good idea for an episode is whether Texas can leave the Union or not. Recently some political group is claiming they will push for independence. Supposedly only Texas has the right to leave the United States

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Great suggestion. I have wanted to look at this for ages.

[@hasancakar3143]

Hey Professor Ker-Lindsay, I don't know if you have done one but it would be interesting if you did a video about Gagauzia. Depending on how the Russian war in Ukraine goes it could be the next potential flashpoint in not only Russo-NATO relations but also Turkey's relations with the rest of NATO, and although none of this is wanted it is an interesting topic and potential scenario.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. Great suggestion. I certainly plan to cover this at some point.

[@stephenbethell7548]

Excellent analysis, thank you 😊

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. Really appreciated!

[@skipper1350]

Great report, thanks.

[@rpgbb]

I love your channel! Always great! I’m reading “Iron Kingdom: The Rise and Downfall of Prussia, 1600-1947” by Christopher Clark. Eventually Prussia was dissolved as an entity in 1947. Are there many cases a state totally dissolved in recent history? Even the Soviet Union continued in the form of the Russian Federation (As Putin likes to remind us) and even Serbia is the continuation of Yugoslavia but are there any cases where a state ceased to exist?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. Always appreciated! That’s a great book. I had it in mind as I was writing the script! :-) Prussia was such a fascinating entity, from start to finish. Regarding states that ceased to exist, do take a look at this fascinating list. There are a number of extinct countries there. history.state.gov/countries I actually made a video on it (one of my early ones) kzbin.info/www/bejne/q5zLnaSNicSLkLc

[@alexanderkehl4845]

But is this really true? If the Soviet Union was 'cut' down to Russia or Yugoslavia to Serbia then the same could be said about Prussia being 'cut' down to Brandenburg and Berlin (the former being the ancestral homeland of Prussia anyway). Anyway the recommended video sounds highly interesting and I'm going to watch it right now 😉

[@rpgbb]

@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks! I will check it out. I also read a biography about Frederick by a British author, can’t recall his name now. He was basically Trudeau with armies and palaces 😉

[@rpgbb]

@@alexanderkehl4845 In that video about extinct countries, the Russian Federation was considered the successor state of the Soviet Union but in the case of Yugoslavia, Serbia wasn’t recognised as a successor state. Maybe it was political decision to cut Serbia’s influence but if studying about Yugoslavia, it seems to me, Serbia was the core. If Spain get dissolved, I would think Castilla as the successor state. Actually Castellano is the language which became Spanish. Huge arguments about it in Spain. If you are interested about Yugoslavia, there’s a great BBC series, “The Death of Yugoslavia”, there’s a KZbin playlist somewhere

[@rpgbb]

@@JamesKerLindsay Just saw that video, very interesting. Thank you. You have improved the sound and presentation 👍🏽 Prussia was basically at war for 300 years. If looking at European history, the last 70 years of Peace has been an exception

[@dougjardine8545]

I wonder whether (and, if so, when) climate change may make St. Petersburg an all-weather port?

[@staropramen478]

Don't think that will happen any time soon. It's mostly the summers that have gotten hotter.

[@peter-8483]

Maybe in 500 years

[@nemeking9040]

I like how you report your videos without being baised, the message is straight, and raw

[@rosarioaleguin9201]

Your Channel is very informative.thank U

[@gagetolinwrites6845]

Putin's Russia has made it a point to call Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and other former Soviet states, as "part of Historical Russia." Despite only controlling most of them for less than a century prior to the USSR. This same logic of "historical territory" could easily be applied by the West to Kaliningrad. One could argue that it was a part of historical Germany, historical Lithuania, and historical Poland. Not to mention that it was a part of all three states for longer than it's been part of Russia.

[@rejvaik00]

I mean imagine if any states or Nation could get away with that crap As justification for engaging in a war Mongolia would be rubbing their hands with greed

[@uschurch]

By that logic Russia should be reduced to about a circle of 400 km in diameter around Moscow. Most of Asia was not Russia for most of history.

[@gagetolinwrites6845]

@@uschurch My knowledge of Russia's administrative divisions is rusty; but I think that if their subjects were freed/released, they'd be left with what they call "oblasts". Those are mostly in the European part of Russia, and mostly constitute the region of the former Duchy of Moscow and Republic of Novgorod.

[@bohomazdesign725]

@@uschurch Technically Poland could claim Moscow as their own if they applied Russian logic.

[@stanislavmauzy8384]

Perhaps half of Poland and Hungary should cede their land to Germany too since it was their land prior to WW2

[@eugenegvozdetsky2673]

Why can't the West recognize the independence of Prussia in the same way that it recognized the break up of the Soviet Union? What is the legal difference between the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Russian Federation?

[@miceshooter]

Because recognizing the breakup of the Soviet Union was just recognizing the situation that occurred and was agreed upon by its members. With all the support that is going to Ukraine to defend its territorial integrity, it would be hypocritical to violate Russia’s territorial integrity in an area that has no disputes. Not to mention that it is likely that Kaliningrad has nukes and even if it doesn’t, any movement on it would trigger a response from Russia.

[@justasklimas9572]

To take Lithuania as it was the topic of the video, it declared independence on 1990-03-11 but the first country to recognize it was Iceland on 1991-02-11, almost a year later. USA, UK, Germany, France, and most other countries only recognized it in the end of August/beginning of September 1991, only slightly before USSR itself did, and after multiple constituent republics of USSR had, including Russia. So I'm not sure the analogy works here. Republics of USSR were recognized basically only when there was consensus in the USSR itself that they should become independent. It would be much different to recognize the independence of a region of Russia when Russia itself doesn't want it.

[@eugenegvozdetsky2673]

@@justasklimas9572 ​ @MiceShooter so basicaly your point is that Yeltsin's new government agreed to recognize the independence of Lithuania and Co. Okay, then let's take the example of Yugoslavia. First Serbia did not recognize the independence of Slovenia and Croatia. But then it was forced to recognize their independence. Russia began by annexing Crimea to challenge its own territorial integrity. Thus, nothing prevents the West from recognizing the independence of Prussia.

[@brarob2089]

Well the traditional Prussian borders would take up a bunch of what is now Poland

[@miceshooter]

@@eugenegvozdetsky2673 There’s currently no real movement in Kaliningrad that we know of for independence, so what justification do we have to unilaterally make it so? We’d just be risking war with Russia and reinforce their right to Crimea, plus you know how much they love bringing up Kosovo.

[@Cykler770]

Good video as always

[@villagedesigninstitute4135]

thanks very much for this helpful explanation...

[@petertyson4022]

Russian cry foul. Whale breaking all cans rules. Good show 👍😊

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Yes. Indeed. It really is astounding! And seemingly said without any sort of irony.

[@tatradak]

I think winter is when Russia will deal with all these issues.....the same as China and Taiwan....I think the first days weeks of January will be the most worrying..

[@nascentebio]

Winter in Europe, you forget! We used cheap oil from Russia for a long time and we are not used to freezing homes, just to say and most houses can not heat with wood anymore. (Here in the mountains of Switzerland)

[@flip849]

Exactly as margarita said, we're about to freeze this winter and factories are about to shut down (at least here in italy), we will suffer far more then the russians. And I still can't understand how someone can feel joy for another civilian suffering just because he/she is in another nation, even if that's the enemy. That's not very democratic of you

[@philipmullins6235]

If China ever invades Taiwan , it's trade with the rest of the world would be put at very great risk and it should be remember that China brought itself out of famines and poverty last century by producing goods that the rest of the world wants to buy without keeping it's customer base , China risks losing international trade and the one billion people in China who need international trade to support their lifestyles . Beside exporting goods , China needs imports of many primary products to support it's industry and in a state of war and sanctions China could not afford to lose their ability to import and to export products

[@kerstas10]

@@nascentebio I dont understand you guys there in the west. For the last decade you barked loudest about beeing eco friendly. Stop polluting and so on. But couldnt build for yourselfs neither enough solar/wind plants. Nor you made your heating from renewable sources. So what with all those talks for the last 10 years?

[@nascentebio]

@@kerstas10 ​ sorry, but not all house-owners do have the money to change their heating system, this is private investing. (And I do not own a house, but I am renting a - fortunately - small place) Solar plants are a limited source of power (snow in winter, clouds, rainy season). Also wind is limited, as my home country is small, many birds are killed in those huge wind wheels and they would change the view of our beautiful landscapes :) .......for electricity we have alot of water power, thanks to the mountains and the water.....but to heat a house with electricity would be far too expensive. So, rich house-owners do not fear the winter, but we have alot of common people here, in opposite of imaginations foreigners may have about Switzerland. (Our government should not have participated in this common hype of sanctions against Russia, that is my opinion)

[@ot4aroundtheworld470]

Very well done in explaining everything, I am from Lithuania

[@brucer81]

Excellent and interesting analysis of a very complicated and ever evolving world diplomatic matrix.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much.

[@oinas91]

I think it's important to not that köbigsberg was not just granted to russia it was in fact split in half between russia and poland both of which proceded to ethnically cleanse their half

[@Leberteich]

@Harbin Tiger On that line of thought, now that Poland again is a truly sovereign country, it should roll back the annexation of south east Prussia that was pushed by their Russian occupiers at the time and return the territory to Germany. Not to mention, Pomerania and Silisia as well. Sounds unlikely. But you can't wash your hands of your responsibility, and still keep the proceeds.

[@legokingtm9462]

@@Leberteich The Germans sign an agreement with France and UK that after Unifying with East Germany they can no longer have any territorial expansion.

[@villidar6010]

As a person, who lives in Kaliningrad, I hope Moscow won’t start another military conflict, it would be painful. About the current situation, all prices have been increasing since this year started, now it’s almost 2x the price it used to be for food and other necessary things (things that are produced in our region are less expensive though, but price’s still increasing, just not as much). Everyone I know is struggling a lot financially and I think it would get even worse. We’ll see I guess Thank you a lot for the video :)

[@suspendedtwice4sayingrasis261]

It's always a shame when regular people have to suffer due to the irresponsibility of those in power. But I see no other choice but the impose sanctions on Russia. Their stupid war is already taking a huge toll on the entire continent..

[@perucho2194]

Odd, you seem disconnected from your own reality - you dont look at Lithuania and NATO as the culprit of the problem,. It makes me wonder about the veracity of your claimed identity

[@NomadJoe0323]

@@perucho2194 😂 that’s because Russia is the one who is at fault. Only Russia is to blame.

[@billcarruth8122]

@@perucho2194 Russia violated international borders, not NATO. It's Russia looking for a fight and it's willing to throw Kaliningrad under the bus to get one.

[@perucho2194]

@@NomadJoe0323 Sounds like a Pro-NATO bot

[@kristJ25]

Interesting indeed

[@br549fried4]

Thanks, very interesting.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot!

[@__Aurora__]

Great video! Especially from a Swedish point of view. Perhaps time for the West to unleash a special operation in Kaliningrad.

[@sharwama992]

War monger 👀

[@sharwama992]

You guys like nuclear war huh Kaliningrad is a literal Russian military base

[@pogo1140]

@@sharwama992 Just using Putin's reasoning. What's good for the gander is good for the goose.

[@sharwama992]

@@pogo1140 are you volunteering to fight in this so called operation lead the war

[@sharwama992]

*way

[@Pavlos_Charalambous]

all those statements at least in my eyes show nervousness on behalf of the Russian leadership.. i mean technically speaking it isn't like Lithuania isn't starving Kaliningrad or something, the Russians are clearly overacting, probably they feel like they can't lose face over a smaller country

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Pavlos. I think you are right. But the trouble is that I suspect that Moscow also knows that there is a lot it can really do about it either - or at least reasonable do about it. And that’s the danger. It might feel that it needs to do something unreasonable, if not now then once things start to really be felt in Kaliningrad. All that said, Moscow does control the levers of information in Russia. It could potentially keep a lid on it. I’d like to say that it would be fascinating to see how all this plays out if it wasn’t so dangerous!

[@Pavlos_Charalambous]

@@JamesKerLindsay indeed, fascinating as a scenario for study but it would be better if it was only a theoretical problem . i wonder what Moscow could do without risking an escalation that could lead to conflict with Lithuania?

[@philipmullins6235]

@@Pavlos_Charalambous The minute Russia ever stepped inside Lithuania , A war between Russia and NATO would start and Russia knows at present it would be impossible to engage in another war when at present it is struggling in Ukraine .

[@joqqeman]

@@philipmullins6235 I think we are long past the point where we could really trust the Putin regime to do the rational thing in any given situation.

[@Xavyer13]

Really educational video, thanks

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed.

[@eL-mr__Mario]

Thanks!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Hi Mario. Thank you so much! I am so sorry I haven’t replied sooner. I only just saw this. (KZbin is meant to alert me, but somehow it didn’t.) I really appreciate your support. I hope all is well at your end. Again, my sincerest thanks.

[@Fyrlss]

Fantastic work, Professor! Thank you very much. "Here we go again...." that moment you realize that Germany lost 2 word wars and this time your country is Germany's ally :{

[@kevanhubbard9673]

I have been to Kaliningrad and,if memory serves me,it along with Ragusa (Dubrovnik)are the only exclaves I've been to.I think that I've been to more enclaves than exclaves.As to exactly how ice free Kaliningrad is I suspect it's relative as I crossed the Baltic Sea a bit further up between Helsinki and Talinn in a January and our ferry got stuck in ice!I was in Stockholm a few years ago and the harbour was frozen over.Last but not least I flew across the Aland Islands in a February and from Helsinki to Brussels and you could see the sea was frozen.As for Russia splitting up I can see the USA coming apart first with the rise of the right and the recent Supreme Court rulling on abortion and guns in New York?

[@shanebrown2009]

The USA isn't coming apart because of SCOTUS decisions. There maybe other reasons for a potential crack up, but not that.

[@MultiOranuch]

Thank you for the clip and your good analyse - Baltic Sea Area will be in risk for huge conflict between EU and Russia. We worry about the consequence as well. Best Wishes from STOCKHOLM - SWEDEN

[@philbydoodle6199]

Awesome thanks

[@EdMcF1]

Oh for the days when the seven bridges of Königsberg was their biggest problem.

[@verakiseleva1638]

I still don’t know how to solve them 🫥

[@ogamaniuk]

My grandma told me the percentage of Ukrainians in Kaliningrad is actually much higher. No surprise that after a few rounds of russification a few of them recognize themselves as Ukrainians. When WW2 ended Germans were deported, fishermen from the Ukrainian Kuban' and the Azov sea coast were made to move to Kaliningrad. They established fish production factories because they knew how to catch and deal with fish. I don't know about now but at that moment the population of Kuban' we're mostly cossacks from fish rich Zaporozhye deported by Catherine II. My grandma was working at the canned fish factory. In Kaliningrad she met my grandpa, who relocated from Kharkiv for the same reason. She told me when they moved to Kaliningrad, the Germans were forced to move even without packing their stuff. She said they left almost everything, even plates.

[@Splat654]

Do your grandparents still live there?

[@theofarmmanager267]

This video is the first one of yours that I’ve seen. I watched perhaps half and then subscribed. It’s entirely refreshing to listen to a non-politicaly or ethnically biased summation of complex issues. Politics is full of hypocrisy and low on ethics - regardless of east, west, non-aligned status. Perhaps some is inevitable, sadly, but the inability of the “leaders” to act consistently and coherently just ensures, in my view, that the respect of the populace shrinks. That weakness is, I feel, the major danger to the relatively peaceful existence of people throughout the world. The whole situation of weak leaders become critical when a strong leader (and that is not a compliment in this context) like Putin decides to test the resolve of others. We have most of the West united in condemnation, fairly united on sanctions but reaping the consequences of previous policies such as reliance upon Russian energy which seemed stupid at the time and now reckless. Non aligned countries have not wholeheartedly bought into the narrative of resisting Russian aggression partly, I would suggest, because it is happening a long way away and those on, Brazil, for instance, see the European issues as irrelevant to them; partly because they see the hypocrisy of countries such as America in condemning foreign aggression (think Grenada, Iraq, Afghanistan); partly because they need not to fall away from Russia because Russia would then likely support a regional competitor (think India and its ongoing disputes with China and Pakistan); partly because the consequences of sanctions and retaliation against sanctions have directly led to the uncontrollable inflation in energy and basic food stuffs. Petrol rising in price in the UK is uncomfortable but not life threatening whereas the increase cost of grain to a country in, say, Africa is potentially deadly and leading to national conflict. I read that France, Germany and Italy are wearing their stance of sanctions against Russia. True? The reports suggest that these countries do not want to take the pain of inevitable price inflation that results from sanctions but maybe seeking to dress this weakness up by talking about the need to keep dialogue with Putin. A weakness of true democracies that it’s ruling party has to go through cycles of strength and weakness in line with elections; if a general election is due in 6 months time, price inflation is not good for the ruling party and so they are desperate to lower the impact on the voting public. Solutions? There aren’t any which involve no pain, no restrictions and no risk. It’s deemed easy to say that we shouldn’t be in this place (dependence on Russian energy) to begin with but, truthfully, political leaders don’t think more than months ahead; survival in power is their sole motivating factor. If all that sounds negative and cynical to others, I have to say that all this comes from experience. From the Cuban crisis to current day, I have lived through so many events which are the result of weak political leadership. And it will continue way passed the time I am pushing up daisies

[@maureenstevens6824]

So true .

[@Lucasbio]

excelente trabalho.... obrigado....