Irish Housing Market Trends 2025: Are Prices Set to Soar or Crash?

[@shaneflemingre]

Do you agree or disagree? Will prices rise or fall in 2025 ???

[@footlongschlong2000]

10% at least. The immigration ponzi wont stop

[@declancooney1029]

prices will rise but value (to real money) will decrease.

[@JohnMurphy-mx7pd]

#LimitlessImmigration means Dublin house prices will rise by 10 % p a #AdInfinitum . 8 fold increase in currency adjusted costs over the past 3 decades .

[@orionxtc1119]

It will soar and then collapse and big corps like Blackrock will buy cheap

[@shaneflemingre]

@@declancooney1029 this is likely the case

[@walterbrowning]

Hello Shane, you did your best to avoid the obvious…the biggest single factor in the re inflation of the Celtic Tiger housing bubble is taxpayer funded rent assistance in all of its many disguises. During 2024 ….20% of the total value of all rent collected was HAP etc etc, do the maths yourself….what would be house values today if the government stopped all rent assistance 10 years ago.

[@shaneflemingre]

I have spoken at length about over involvement of the government in housing in many videos. It’s one of the main issues. Government competing with public just drives up prices

[@stefanofranco4753]

Ireland is facing now what other EU contries faced a while back especially with immigration, instead of to take action at the right time, the government stayed with their arms crossed and waited the wave to hit, well done 👏

[@scolariIRE]

its very sad whats been allowed to happen in this country. At this rate my kids will never own a home!

[@ando5899]

That's the point of it ;)

[@paulc9848]

That's the problem your kinda mentality, you think owning a home is normal that's very irish... allover Europe thus is not normal... irish property prices are about right currently

[@scolariIRE]

@paulc9848 renting here is completely different to renting in other countries. Don't tell me it's my mentality!

[@paulc9848]

​@scolariIRE please explain I rent in Europe for work... there is absolutely no difference except its more expensive in a like for like... the place will be unfurnished and u must have insurance and credit reports as Well as been responsible for paint ect at end of tenancy

[@paulc9848]

And it is your mentality, plenty buying houses if you or your people can't afford them that's yer problem ,renting is there for that

[@marckenny3131]

Great post, i agree with the multiple reasons why house prices will very likely follow 2024 and see 10% or more increase in 2025.

[@shaneflemingre]

It’s hard to see anything else happening unless, something mad happens in the US

[@rob7819]

Excellent video Shane.

[@shaneflemingre]

Thanks for the feedback Rob

[@Gav_Ireland]

When’s it’s more profitable to set up an IPA centre versus building homes for sale, why would a lot of these so called developers be incentivised to build, when they can set up these IPA centres with their failed commercial real estate investments.

[@shaneflemingre]

It’s very hard to make a profit from developing. If it was easier I would be in that game

[@pennysquare]

KEY FACTOR, GOVERNMENT WILL BUY ALL STOCK

[@shaneflemingre]

They are buying 50% of the sites already

[@marksfreeyoutube6159]

Great video as usual

[@shaneflemingre]

Thanks a million Mark

[@turneaandrei]

Everyone who i talk to they literally say that they cannot and they will not buy any houses at these prices It is simply unaffordable

[@shaneflemingre]

I get it, prices are mad but people want and need a home. Renting won’t suit everyone and people will still buy

[@Kamil-sk7gj]

So they will continue to rent an average 2k for a 2 bed apartment. Current trend won't shift any soon...

[@johnjames8570]

Unpopular opinion: Prices are high but they are not too bad in comparison to other anglosphere countries. A Couple on average salaries (45-50K) can afford a mortgage of 350-400K. Plenty of properties in this range if you have a minimum required 10% deposit

[@footlongschlong2000]

@@johnjames8570 They're getting max 300k on those salaries. Good luck finding something 350-400k and not having to bid another 50-70k, never mind the FHS second mortgage

[@footlongschlong2000]

@@shaneflemingre There simply wont be enough homes for most buyers being honest, and all this means is even more taxpayer subsidisation of the PRS. Utterly unsustainable.

[@jamesmcgarry1229]

Great point about the Euro money supply. Most people don’t realise or understand that point as a core driver of inflation. They only see the rise in nominal price.

[@shaneflemingre]

If you look at the rise of some items it’s crazy.

[@SK-yb7bx]

Happy New Year, Shane. You have been spot on the past few years. I see no reason why you will be wrong for 2025. We'll see more political pressure and protests in 2025. It's pretty depressing really.

[@shaneflemingre]

Thanks for the support. I am lucky enough to have a house, but agree i really do not like the direction the country is going in. The lack of forward thinking or thinking past the next news cycle is a major issue

[@breakfastfoodanddarkhaired280]

The system seems stacked against anyone who wants to advance themselves financially. I got out of landlording last year because of the regulations and looked into putting my money in an ETF but the way they tax this conservative investment tool (41 percent on all profit every 8 years whether you sell or not) is scandalous. In the UK, you can pursue the same investment to the tune of 20k each year with no tax liability. Thanks for your videos Shane, we live in a terrible market for the small retail investor.

[@shaneflemingre]

Think about the 33% they take off family at death. Agree it’s all stacked against the average person. You can go out and gamble, buy lotto tickets no one stops you but if you try invest in start ups or etf you can’t. It’s only reserved for the top earners

[@breakfastfoodanddarkhaired280]

@shaneflemingre Totally agree Shane, CAT is a double tax and completely wrong. I saw FG put in their manifesto that they'd increase the exemption band to 500k. The laughable thing is they gave the exact same figure in their 2016 manifesto. Nobody represents us

[@edmundirwin]

Also there is no allowance for inflation so the actual tax rate is probably closer to 75% than 41%

[@Mr.Blue_Ball-lz5mc]

That's actually a great point @@edmundirwin

[@herrop]

Fortunately we purchased our home (new build) in 2017, and now we are investing in ETF"s. Wouldn't consider investing unless already a home owner.

[@mediolanumhibernicus3353]

He has a lovely autumnal view from his window.

[@shaneflemingre]

It was a nice day when recording

[@Alexandra-b3n1s]

Excellent analysis 👍

[@shaneflemingre]

Thanks a mil for the feedback

[@danielgothits]

prices will keep soaring because of simple supply and demand. you guys can't import 200,000+ new people to a country of 5 million every year and expect there to be enough houses for everyone. i'm surprised Irish people are continually surprised every year lol it's just basic maths

[@shaneflemingre]

Fair point. But some housing experts don’t even understand supply and demand of housing

[@RabJ208]

​@@shaneflemingre, Correct Shane! Charlie is one of those who hasn't a clue.

[@jacknolan312]

Greatly appreciate your videos. I'm a 31 year old solo buyer, seeking a place in east wall this year about the 400-410k mark. I feel things are going to get extremely bleak for the lowest socio-economic people/areas for at least the next 5 years. People think it just has to get better, but there's gonna be many years of pain for (again) the most vulnerable in society, maybe in 2029 things will seriously start to improve.

[@shaneflemingre]

Even though some of my videos seem negative, I am a glass half full person. But I get what you are saying. I do worry about the future, leadership is lacking and there is a lack of a long term plan

[@UnbelievablePersistent]

It's the great reset

[@pjay419]

Happy New Year Shane, always enjoy your videos although I sometimes don't know whether to laugh or cry! Is there one significant factor you think is stopping that supply line shifting out?

[@shaneflemingre]

Thanks for the support. In terms of shifting the supply line. If you look at cities that have a more flat supply curve, it generally starts with zoning and the planning laws. The faster and easier it is to get permission to build results in a flatter supply line

[@Shane199416]

The demand was already through the roof and we’ve just got 300,000 immigrants in the past 3 years and we’ve only built 30k home per year We’re fucked. Greed has ruined this Kip

[@shaneflemingre]

Other policies and planning has not been updated to plan for this

[@Eiretraveller]

It's still a duck​@@shaneflemingre

[@madzyadzy07]

It’s not a contradiction to say that prices are overvalued but also that they’re likely to continue to increase. A contradiction would be saying you think they’ll increase, but then outline the case for why they’ll decrease.

[@shaneflemingre]

@@madzyadzy07 that is was issue with the ERSi report. How are they overall valued but at the same time going to rise more

[@robkoltai6708]

​@@shaneflemingrethey will be more overvalued

[@robkoltai6708]

@shaneflemingre Great video anyway! Thanks and keep up the good work! You're helping us a lot

[@madzyadzy07]

@@shaneflemingre as the other commenter mentioned. They’re overvalued and going to rise more is what the report is claiming. That’s not a contradiction.

[@gilleek2]

Every so often I see news stories of new construction methods that are like 3D printing of houses, think there was one up in Louth recently. Is this a realistic thing that's going to take off in the lifetime of this government perhaps or are these still pipe dreams. By 'take off' I mean 1 full housing estate. If it doesn't take off then where are the staff going to come from to build the number of houses we need in order to satisfy demand and flatten that supply line a little bit?

[@shaneflemingre]

The 3d printing has been around for a long time. Few options in the US and Aisa but they never build at scale. The modular option is a good one but hard to build a factory that can operate with building cycles and many fail due to large up front costs.

[@matthewbarry376]

Takes longer to print one of these buildings and then the time consuming stuff like electrics, painting, plumbing etc still is all done the traditional way. It's purely for show.

[@Chuck_Dalton]

House prices in Ireland are 10% over inflated.

[@Davegt535]

I would say a minimum 30%

[@patricksweeney5132]

@@Davegt535 Agreed.

[@shaneflemingre]

Would say the value of money has become less rather than housing being over inflated

[@moneybags-s4i]

Supply will always decrease with the rise in population.

[@shaneflemingre]

Not if there was proper planning in place that allows for rising population. Issue is major short fall of zoned land for the last 10 years

[@theshwingbatty]

@shaneflemingre Seems to be a perfect storm of lack of planning and mass immigration.

[@MrJames1988]

1 Population growing at a rate that is not sustainable 2 Materials will rise or stay stable at best. They will not come down. We are also too reliant on imported materials as we dont manufacture much in Ireland 3 The scale of social housing subsidised by LAs or AHBs is only throwing more fuel on the fire and pricing buyers out 4 Lack of resources for building in this country and productivity of same 5 Planning and regulation is still an issue. 6 Retrofit/renovations too expensive and too much trouble getting grants All of the above only means one outcome. Im sure there is more reasons but these are the quick fire ones that come to me at the moment

[@shaneflemingre]

Agree with all. Point 3 is one most people are not picking up on

[@keithbrosnan9468]

I paid 26% over asking price ......

[@shaneflemingre]

It’s very common in the current market

[@paulc9848]

We are in a QE phase the boom has not even started

[@shaneflemingre]

Would be interesting to see if they print more money to help German, but they have just got a handle of inflation

[@themsmloveswar3985]

Too many unpredictable variables exist in the market. The largest variable is Euro currency production..

[@shaneflemingre]

That is fair. But based on the predictable

[@daddynugent]

Even with the govt buying 50% of sites and lowering of EU interest rates there's limited capability in Ireland to improve the supply line beyond 60k builds a year because due to a lack of planning this country does not have the resources available. There is a huge deficit in skilled labour which is driving costs, and the last 4 apartment developments in my area when completed were not offered for sale to locals, they were only offered by fund managers for rent at a significant inflated cost. I can only see continual price increases unfortunately, unless there's a crash, fingers crossed. In the meantime I am fortunate to be able to have four generations living in my home, but this is not feasible for everyone.

[@shaneflemingre]

I believe lack of zoned land and planning issues are the biggest issues. The labour issue could be solved if there was a will.

[@daddynugent]

@@shaneflemingre Ireland needs a huge drive in kickstarting apprenticeships, no sign of this happening soon. Importing foreign workers is no stop gap when rent is so high and this would contribute to increased costs. Planning imho has broadly lacked vision.

[@johnnyboy4711]

loads of demand and feck all supply,i aint no economist but it can only go one way !upwards

[@horsemanoftheapocalapse5837]

It costs 400k to build a 2000 sq foot house if you are lucky.

[@shaneflemingre]

That would be cheap in Dublin

[@rod9829]

Market predictions 🚫 Morket predictions 👍

[@shaneflemingre]

🤣

[@denissul8532]

I think inflation goes up

[@shaneflemingre]

It does. Do is deflation

[@shaneflemingre]

Down, is deflation

[@paulc9848]

Where are u getting these facts, property was forecast to grow 10percent in 2024 , the demand was forecast to increase and supply still be an issue

[@shaneflemingre]

Pretty sure I quoted and had news articles clipping in the videos of most predictions in 2023 for 2024 and were low and around 4%. 2023 video will prices rise or fall

[@footlongschlong2000]

@@shaneflemingre you are correct

[@tomrooney3223]

340,000 non EU residency permits were issued in 2023 alone. Mass legal immigration is the biggest cause of the housing shortage and the resulting demand based price inflation.

[@shaneflemingre]

It’s having a big issue alert. 340k seems a lot. Thought net migration was around 80k

[@davidhiggins3986]

The overall population of Ireland and EU is completely unstainable if you want to live in a region with actual value property prices. How on earth could supply and demand be on the same trajectory when the country is been flooded with new extremely poor people year after year. We are creating a generation of the working semi homeless. So there is no doubt in my mind house prices will continue to rise until either this mindless social policy is brought under control or the Euro will suffer a complete crash in the next 5 years. I believe this crash could stem from badly thought out green policies which will destroy both manufacturing and energy availability in the Eurozone. Employment and lack of productivity en mass will destroy any economy and its users

[@shaneflemingre]

It is a major issue on the green policies. Glad they only got one seat in election. As someone that lives in the city I feel green policy will force me out.

[@jellybellyjellybelly7298]

Greed Prevails.

[@The-Real-Jack]

Even though housing is extremely expensive I struggle to see how it's not achievable for most average people. 2 partners of median income can get a mortgage of €294,400 (excluding the possibility of mortgage exception which would allow borrowing up to €349,600. If that same couple saved a deposit of 30k they could be looking at buying a house for 330k if its preowned or 360k with HTB scheme or even more with the shared equity scheme. I understand that people want to live as well and this would be difficult to save for but it's absolutely achievable to purchase a house for an average couple. If people are struggling to buy even after 6 or 7+ years of saving they really need to reexamine their spending.

[@footlongschlong2000]

Did you just wake up and think it's 2019 buddy?

[@malachy1847]

'Many ''Average People'' may well be SINGLE, so that would sort of lock them out of putting down roots by swinging a Mortgage, to buy any class of a modest property, that being so, some bite the bullet to move out of a Rental property, and go back to live with the Parents Home in the hope of trying to squirrel money away , in the hope, to build up some sort of a War Chest over the coming years, to try then to make that Single Mortgage stack up... all the time they face into a Bull Market and are seeing that prospect diminishing, some even look to re shore altogether and to start afresh,where that option of becoming a ,''Home Owner'' is achievable for them...

[@shaneflemingre]

I get the point. The idea of a starter home is a thing if the past. Mainly because people are buying later in life and the €350k house is not suitable for their wants/needs.

[@stevo9924]

Look its 2025 now lets just see if deegle was right be plenty of houses round soon if we are to go by deegle😂

[@RoseMary-ch6ib]

80 percent more 😮😢

[@stevo9924]

@@RoseMary-ch6ib nothing would surprise me now people forget the incarnation for 2 years anything is possible

[@shaneflemingre]

Time will tell

[@MR-mc6rj]

There will be neither crash nor soar. There absolutely needs to be a mild correction. Since the end of WW2 there has been a recession every 8/10 years. We are due one. Thankfully this Celtic Tiger boom part 2 has put money in the bank.

[@shaneflemingre]

The issue with the money in the bank it is the over 50s that have it all.

[@matthewbarry376]

​@@shaneflemingreyes but to be frank the issue is the duopoly in banking and the fact that AIB in particular has something like a 60% loan to deposit ratio. Lowest it's been in like 70 years. Economist Peter Ryan has a nice graph somewhere.

[@tullypoo]

Your a fine looking thing 😍

[@shaneflemingre]

Ha ha, it’s just the lighting

[@TeezerDriz]

The misery will continue. Prices will rise by 10%. Nothing will be done by Gov yet again. The renovation grant red tape prevents uptake of the grant for the vast majority seeking it.

[@padfla867]

A House of cards always falls and fall it will in this country very soon.

[@shaneflemingre]

This is true but can’t see it happening in 2025 unless trump does something crazy

[@padfla867]

@shaneflemingre in my opinion it is all said and done already, I don't think Trump can stop or start anything for that matter. it's all going to come down either way as the damage is already done.

[@shaneflemingre]

@ I think if he introduces tariffs on Europe or reduces taxes to 15% it will have a big impact to Ireland

[@lubo8767]

BTC is the investment of this generation. Im buying all the BTC I can and will buy a house with BTC eventually.

[@shaneflemingre]

If you had 3.5 bitcoins you would be able to buy the average house

[@ruairicorbett1]

I think irelands stance on Israel will pose a far greater risk to our economy than Trump

[@celicacelica1]

How?

[@shaneflemingre]

I get what you are saying after living in NYC for a few years. But think trump is a greater risk to ireland. But perhaps ireland not planning for the future is a bigger risk.

[@gabriellekelly4211]

I hope Donald Trump teaches the irish government a big good lesson because the irish government is so cruel to poor irish people 😢😢😢

[@neddyboy4846]

High demand meets low supply means prices can only go up, even in a global crash.2008 they were handing out mortgages like sweets, to people who couldn't pay. The opposite is true today.

[@shaneflemingre]

An a lot of approvals, that have large deposits so they have ability to bid higher