Is Brisbane The Next City To See The Home Price Fall Shoe Drop?

[@okalov]

Have been actively looking at houses over the last 2-3 months in Brisbane and sunshine coast region and watching the market for the 12 months prior to prepare. There are definitely changed afoot, with increased time in market and more sales going through pre auction. Anecdotally I am noticing less groups going through, and of those groups, more seem cagey.

[@benstrachan3418]

I sold an entry level house, in good condition in Kelvin Grove last month. Certainly quiet on the offers. Agents back peddling a lot of advice.

[@LilyWhiteAkAConspiracyRealist]

Happy Australia Day everyone, may we all prosper really soon 🇦🇺🦘🐨😘

[@briandingle5233]

A 50% drop wouldn't bring Aust. home prices to where they should be!

[@ulrichsherry7092]

You can buy a Chateau in France for the price of a 1 bedroom unit in Noosa!

[@christinalikoski4937]

Houses will never drop, and if it does, it will only be a little that it wouldn't make a difference You need a million dollars to buy a home at its cheapest I have watched real estate since the 1970 and it hasnt dropped Christina 💕 Australia

[@marcmc2873]

Housing prices are extreme lets be real

[@hannesRSA]

Not that extreme relative to construction cost.

[@danielstapler4315]

@@hannesRSA How about reducing construction cost?

[@mortimer670]

@@hannesRSA thats new housing, most housing is already built, and in cheaper times

[@olenanewton364]

@@hannesRSA A third of the cost of construction - at least - goes to the greedy government.

[@JonKino828]

Not according to Albo and Dutton.

[@jasonschubert6828]

The "Australian dream" has literally become a dream.

[@VM-vs4dh]

More like an absolute nightmare due to complete corruption of society - just look at our politicians who are openly traitors

[@olenanewton364]

@@jasonschubert6828 Pipe dream...

[@mohhingman]

australian scream

[@danythrinbell1596]

THE DREAM IS LEAVING UNLESS YOU A YOUNGSTER

[@bigtrev761]

🇦🇺😎👍If the price does fall I bet you 100 bucks the rates won’t go down . Something has to pay for all the overseas wars

[@duncanbuchanan7638]

Yes Brisbane will drop like a rock. My business is prepping a lot of properties with owners squeezed on mortgage rates and have to sell asap!

[@Sid0419]

😂😂😂

[@vittorianesse]

Yup. Faster they rise harder they fall. I am seeing it too. Media just don’t report what’s really going on. All the below reserve sold prices are hidden from the public. Bris to follow Melbourne

[@trythis2821]

Good to dream. Meanwhile the Olympics is coming so even if there is a dip property will bounce back.

[@montysingh4683]

@@trythis2821so Olympic gonna last for next 50 years in Brisbane?

[@trythis2821]

@montysingh4683 50 years is a long projection, hard to say what the housing market is going to look like in the year 2075.

[@Ron-i1f]

If that means all the Victorians will leave the SE and go home ... Bring it on. 😊🇦🇺

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

Victorian here. We're eyeing off those cheap prices and your XXXX and we're just waiting for the moment to take Queensland. We've got Daniel Andrews working on a plan as we speak. Yeah, I knew you'd start trembling when I said that we've got Dan Andrew's on the job.

[@jez0084]

@@davidbrayshaw3529 Brisbane prices are higher than Melbourne now anyway so the days of selling in Melbourne and buying in Brisbane with minimal or no mortgage are long gone. The Victorians would need to take on more debt to re-buy up here!

[@Ravioligreen180b]

​​@@jez0084exactly. They priced themselves out of the market. Plus, alot of Brisbane floods and high insurance, if you can get insurance at all

[@jez0084]

@@Ravioligreen180b yep sure did! I’d say it would be a shock for some of the Victorians when they do the sums now realising that they’ll be selling their house down there for less than what it’ll cost to rebuy up here!

[@UnknownUser-sc6jx]

If they cut rates the AUD will fall off of a Clif

[@grizzz6884]

and the people exporting the gas will get a boost

[@jimjamflimflam]

And the new arrivals money will go further

[@trythis2821]

Won't affect house prices in the downward direction. It will have the opposite effect.

[@mohhingman]

@@UnknownUser-sc6jx yes. Unemployment is super low, inflation still over target, bond yields high, therefore rates stay up

[@HML-it7te]

We tried buying in North Brisbane late 2024, anywhere Petrie centric up to and including Glasshouse and the competition was extreme. Never in my 30 years of buying and selling property have I seen such demand. Gave up and went regional QLD. It’s not that much better but we got in. Never seen buyers buying so quickly like this before…frightening really.

[@S-Works_Zach]

Investors or owner occupier you think? Loads of buyers agents?

[@jez0084]

Yep still seems to be going nuts in Brisbane, houses around us still selling within days at continually higher prices so not sure where this slowing down nonsense is coming from?!

[@HML-it7te]

@@jez0084 maybe it’s just Brisbane. IDK, bought our first house in Kallangur at $92,000 (was a fair bit back then) now look at it. IDK how the younger generation can ever get into the market. Unchecked immigration without adequate trades, material supply, land supply is my guesstimate. Who would want to come to this country.

[@HML-it7te]

@@S-Works_Zach impossible to know, I just know open homes have hordes of people through and many times multiple offers are taken. Even submitting an offer the next day is too late.

[@jez0084]

@@HML-it7te I think it's still most of the country to be fair with maybe Melbourne being the exception. The regional areas, especially within QLD are going absolutely gangbusters. The younger generation will be relying very heavily on their parents for assistance otherwise they'll have no chance to ever get in.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Don't get too excited here. House prices just seem to "pause for breath" before galloping away again. Those who have bet against house prices, in some cases, have lifelong consequences.

[@olenanewton364]

Yes 😂... Maybe one day Martin will even see his prediction re house prices fall come to pass..

[@williamcrossan9333]

@ Let's hope so! I want nothing more than this absurd bubble to end.

[@olenanewton364]

@williamcrossan9333 A lot of us do... For our kids and their future. A house should be a shelter first and foremost, not a speculative asset they have turned it into.

[@hannesRSA]

Even core logic is wrong more often on downturns than not. Prices will always catch up to exceed inflation growth at worst.

[@todretex]

places slowed up a year ago. Cleveland and the Redlands. family sold less than they were hoping. and took time. dropping is already happening.

[@urallnutz5294]

The media would like to present falling house prices as a slight, gradual, controlled process that can reach an equilibrium. That's not how it'll work. Homeowners have signed up to pay far more than the current value of their house, on the gamble that the property will increase far higher in value. If that assumption falls apart, they'll all want to offload the liability as fast as possible. The bubble always collapses faster than it grows

[@moeuramo]

It’s just ridiculous that you see people buying units and then putting up rooms Inside them adding Aircons ( illegal wiring?) extra toilets (illegal plumbing?) and then packing students into them. I wonder where all their students are studying? And governments sit by

[@jessekoch3480]

They will come undone when they go to sell it.

[@mylimomelbourne4757]

If you know anything about building code , 100% correct, 100’s of rental applicants , 1000’s of properties sold, new Australians are there best customers.

[@jeanvonbarberode2377]

I own couple of homes in Moreton Bay and the prices are growing, not enough stock and the agents call me at all time if I do not want sell. Raising areas are Caboolture, Morayfield its going to be huge there in couple of years, infrastructure investment and government projects in Moreton Bay are also huge. Narangba is also good but at the moment not so cheap like those previous suburbs. All those suburbs have access to train and very good position close to Sunshine Coast, Bribie Island and also good connection to Brisbane CBD and Airport and you can build brand new home around 800K there. I guarantee that the prices in Moreton Bay within 5 years will be around 1 mil. Do not forget Australia has inflation and the houses growing because of the devaluation of the AUD, so the buying power are going lower every year. So many people are investing in mortar and bricks to preserve the value of their savings. Only from this reason the homes can't be cheaper otherwise there will be some currency reform which makes the AUD stronger and stable.

[@jez0084]

Very sad situation isn't it.

[@joshuafalken3312]

I've always wondered why caboolture/marayfield exists. Thinking about why anyone would want to live there has always left me perplexed.

[@jez0084]

@@joshuafalken3312 It used to be an area where people of a lower socioeconomic class lived but now with property prices having skyrocketed I'd say you'll see if gentrify over the coming years and those people will need to move further afield to afford to live.

[@Ravioligreen180b]

The selling agents are part of the problem spreading rhetoric. There are 5 homes in our our area, suburb in north Brisbane, that have been on the market for months. I thought it was because they are asking too much and people have woken up and refuse to buy at over inflated prices. Our neighbour put their house on the market last September for $975k. They just took their first offer last week at $900k

[@jez0084]

@@Ravioligreen180b interesting, where in north Brisbane if you don’t mind me asking? I’m Northside too - McDowall and things are going gangbusters around here still, houses go on the market and sell within days.

[@jaidanielparker]

FALL FALL FALL FALL!!! I want my kids to have a chance of owning their own home someday. I really hope the RBA doesn't cut in February. I hope tomorrow's CPI data comes in hotter than expected.

[@TheSuperdodgy]

The RBA will cuck to the government of the day and cut rates. Just another endless cycle of increasing prices and inflation to go back up.

[@GovernYourself]

Me too! It's disgusting ... and the greed of investors!

[@mohhingman]

Hope so. Definitely a lot more for sale signs up that stay up

[@jez0084]

Not where I am on Brisbane Northside, everything seems to still be selling within days at ever increasing prices.

[@trythis2821]

Maybe prices will go down a little in Brisbane and surrounding areas only for them to carry on their merry way a short time later. So long as migration is strong to Australia the dream of affordable housing is not happening.

[@bxyw]

Not dropping yet, i just offered 30k more than asking and they took another offer. This is not the first time and everything sells after the first open house.

[@S-Works_Zach]

Not uncommon for agents to list a stupidly low price to increase interest, knowing full well it will sell for significantly more.

[@mushy111]

The danger with analysing expert opinions on property is that they're rarely correct.

[@thetwowheeledintrovert3367]

Likely those selling are new to the market - purchased in the past two to three years. They’ll be unable to sell at too much of a reduction, as they’ll walk away with debt. Potentially any ‘drop’ will be a slowdown/stabilisation of prices.

[@DrumRoody]

I don't know how there aren't riots

[@TheSuperdodgy]

Because first home buyers are in the minority.

[@richarddobosz6174]

Excellent thank you compulsory listening

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks for listening

[@richardminhle]

Rates will go up from here because inflation is coming back big time in 2025. 8-10% home loan rates will be the norm.

[@williamcrossan9333]

The RBA is not the RBA of old. They will keep rates far too low for far too long. In any case, it looks like rates are about to be cut.

[@andyirons7162]

The us 10yr bond is rising despite US fed cutting....global banks will be forced to raise mortgage rates.

[@williamcrossan9333]

@ I would like to see this! I want house prices to fall.

[@TheSuperdodgy]

@@williamcrossan9333 As you've seen, rates have gone up. Property prices have not dropped. Remember when rates go up the bank will loan you less also.

[@HML-it7te]

@@richardminhle sadly, I think you are right.

[@mikeharrington5593]

Regional & niche variations? The Blue Mountains in NSW appears to have few properties for sale and all at constantly rising prices

[@jetplane10]

Yes I was there before Christmas, it looked crashey to me, I was at Pimpama Chinese buyers recognised the top, 4 houses sold in a week in November, the one I was in, 2 either side and one over the road 😁

[@sergueimikhail9654]

House prices might fall in the short run but will keep rising in the long run. They are positively related only to one factor in the long run, which is our per capita income. We can expect house prices falling only if we all the sudden get very poor. 😊

[@Birch37]

The long-term average is a property price double every 7 years. Brisbane property prices have increased by 25-50% in the last 8 years. So no

[@S-Works_Zach]

Past performance does not indicate future results 😉 take another look at the wages vs home price chart. We are in a totally different world now.

[@GovernYourself]

@@S-Works_Zach 100%! People assuming that the way things have been under a centrally controlled corrupted system will continue are in for a big surprise. TI can buy but happy to wait the shitshow out as big changes are afoot. The current system is simply unsustainable.

[@HP66856]

$2m+ market in Brisbane definitely stagnant. Some price drops trickling though, while listings increasing.

[@davidpearn4344]

One would hope they drop 50% and they might be nearly affordable

[@trythis2821]

If anyone has the money to buy before hoping for a 50% drop, please do so as it is extremely unlikely to happen. Much more plausible scenario is prices will rise faster than your yearly income.

[@dennis6733t]

Once the first quarter get into full swing more options will become apparent to buyers with sellars pausing till the cycle reaches it's top.

[@olenanewton364]

I am sure Edwin will say otherwise re Sydney... We chat chatterers, silent tigers, cryptonians... I am sure there are also some black horses not yet mentioned.

[@S-Works_Zach]

Why did I read that in his voice 😂 he’s said it so many times it’s burnt into my brain

[@redsed1565]

yea trust an agent called ribbon LOL

[@olenanewton364]

@@S-Works_Zach Well, it is a weekly "rant"... No matter how he tries to stay objective, there's still a conflict of interest there.

[@S-Works_Zach]

⁠@@olenanewton364no doubt. I’m not implying anything about his views. It’s just funny that he’s said it so many times it’s burnt into my brain, including the way he says it.

[@olenanewton364]

@@S-Works_Zach My comment was meant to be a joke in a way, so yes, it's burnt into my brain too as he doesn't have much else to say in this regard on a weekly basis... Sounds like a mantra 😂

[@wildflower7574]

Anything between 500-1mil is still been sold quickly. Prices in my area are still being sold over asking.

[@GovernYourself]

Wonder who's buying - immigrants? foreign investors?

[@wildflower7574]

No people from Sydney and Melbourne are selling up to head north with a smaller mortgage or none at all. ​@GovernYourself

[@eulogist8120]

Not until what happened in Syd/melb 2021, Perth/adl/Bri’s have not experienced FOMO

[@user-xv9bt6su1n]

This guy has been so wrong for so long as he is so focused on financial fundamentals, he forgot the basics. People have to live in houses, migration into QLD and a chronic undersupply. There are more people who either have cash or an income that can borrow compared to the supply. Geez it is simple supply and demand

[@marktracey4018]

Half of Brisbane is going to flooded soon, it will be worth noting.

[@TheSuperdodgy]

People have short memories. All those houses that flooded in 2011 are now selling for premium.

[@marktracey4018]

@TheSuperdodgy we are coming in to the big flood cycles from now till 2028. White man hasn't seen the mega floods.

[@marktracey4018]

@TheSuperdodgy people do have short memories. 👍

[@BrissyBelle84]

Fingers crossed for falling here in qld. It's crazy.

[@InfinityIsland2203]

I cant see so called falls in Sydney. Maybe some high rise slums in outer west. Inner west, Eastern suburbs and north are bursting at the seams with newly arrived immigrants. Rent pw is still rising. So if some homeowners are mortgage stressed they can move in with parents and let their home out to migrants for exorbitant price and enjoy the 6 year rule avoiding tax

[@mylimomelbourne4757]

Tourists. People on holiday are more likely to treat themselves to ice cream and other indulgences. For example: Park your mobile ice cream truck near popular tourist attractions, beaches, and other holiday hotspots to attract these customers, $7.50 for an ice cream St Kilda , new Australian are no different with Australian reality, that’s inflation for locals

[@UziMusic]

New Australians are working in the ice cream truck for $8/hr cash..

[@mylimomelbourne4757]

@UziMusic , I bet they are and I feel for them, absolutely no disrespect to new Australians, every one is welcome is a democracy, we are just completely over crowded, that’s all

[@UziMusic]

@ Oh I agree 100%

[@GovernYourself]

More land for new housing? Pretty sure this mostly won't be for Aussies - more likely for immigrants and foreign investors.

[@lenastle8764]

Only the most expensive houses and the most derelict will fall in value.

[@AUNZAnon]

Brisbane might be slowing, but regional Qld isn't. It's still a hot market. Lower prices than Brisbane is still attracting buyers. Until building costs and stock remains low, and wealthy, cashed up,😂 foreigners want to dump their dirty money into Australian property, prices will be largely maintained. The government target for immigration for Brisbane is another 500,000 people by 2035. Where are they all going to live?

[@herbertvonsauerkrautunterh2513]

Where i am North of Brisbane prices are still increasing. By about $30-50k over the last six months. My portfolio has increased by roughly 170% since 2019

[@essie6834]

And the whole time Martin was saying prices would drop!

[@trythis2821]

Same thing happening in Southeast QLD. Prices keep going up not down. Don't hold your breath waiting for house price reductions.

[@jez0084]

Sounds about right. In the price range I'm looking at (up to $1m northside Brisbane) I reckon prices are up around $70k give or take in the past 6 months and continuing to go up by the day even now.

[@bxyw]

This is the same in the Ipswich region

[@jackvincent738]

Can i sell my house in nth Booval please

[@trythis2821]

Sure, you can, depending on its condition I expect you to be in the 500K or above price range.

[@adriansmith7604]

When rates come down 2 if we are lucky thats it wages so far behind borrowing power price gouging unflation labors policies immigration cancerous decade to recover

[@lis819]

What’s that mean? House fall shoe drop…???

[@mushy111]

"Waiting for the other shoe to drop" is an idiom that means to wait for an inevitable event, usually negative, to occur.

[@lis819]

@mushy111 thanks!

[@UnknownUser-sc6jx]

🥳

[@elementsofmassage]

2032...

[@scubatuna]

TLDR, YES

[@geoffmccoll4640]

Yes, the price will start to drop at a minus percent of 0.1%? stuff your core logic statistics up your clacker