Is Russian Economy Finally Set to Crumble?

[@vorong2ru]

As a russian, 2:05 all mortgage deals in Russia are fixed for the whole period so mortgages didn't go up for those who already started to pay them and there are lots of subsidies for new mortgages for families, first buyers etc. So ordinary ppl dont feel this, it's just inflation is going up and up, but also salaries in some industries doubled and tripled. So things like international travel and cars do cost times more Vs pre war but regular groceries didn't really become unaffordable imho. There is a lot of side trading and shady deals to continue import from the west which I think is at the core of why the Russian economy didn't struggle as much as it was expected. If the US is going to be strict at actually implementing those sanctions, the Russian economy won't survive long. Those payouts to new soldiers (10-30 times their normal salaries) did push inflation and will continue doing that for as long as the war is going...

[@sergeyi.7037]

Yeah, it's a quite accurate description and summary. Although, as a very minor detail, some mortgages (like the so-called transh morgages, траншевая ипотека) are linked to the current rate, when preliminary morgages for newly constracted flats turn into firm agreements, when home-buyers get their flats from building companies. But it's less than 2% of all mortgages, which fall under that shady scheme, some naive home buyers got into that scheme on the notion of future landing rates stability. They somehow decided to get a feeling of being like UK or Canadian mortgage borrowers, lol. Now they feel the pain.

[@vonder7]

I’ve heard that for most Russian soldiers it was a cultural shock to see that people in Ukraine can actually have toilets inside the house and washing machines.

[@sergeyi.7037]

@@vonder7 In all fairness, that is an exaggeration. Although many frontline military personnel are from the most disadvantaged regions and social stratas, living standards are not that awful for them to be shocked by toilets or washing machines. At the same time, Ukrainian people are indeed great homekeepers and overall smart and efficient people, which is why their houses might have positively impressed.

[@ProfoundFamiliarity]

I'm really grateful to hear a Russian perspective, thank you

[@VTh-f5x]

There is so much dis info about Russia in Western media. Mostly in form of copium of economy being bad. My cousin is an immigrant in Russia and he tells me everything is fine for now. He has his own small business and he is doing okay.

[@danialwiren2403]

All these issues stem from an economy grappling with uncertainties, including housing problems, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, leading to instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions demand urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

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[@efghggdxlmfn33]

The most remarkable shift is that according to the IMF’s updated numbers, the Russian economy is now 15% larger than the German one when it felt like only recently that Russia had even officially surpassed Germany.

[@slawomirozdoba4605]

Yeah, according to Putin Russians live in the 4th largest economy on the planet. Weirdly, most of them have a bit of trouble to notice that blessing.

[@nemurerumaboroshi]

Russia historically had very high inflation rates and unaffordable mortgages, as well as regular falls of the national currency. It's a typical state of matters in Russia.

[@paul_london]

Just a reminder, food prices in the UK have increased by 25% in the last two years

[@slawomirozdoba4605]

Can you point me to your source?

[@megapangolin1093]

Interesting, thought provoking analysis. There is always more to these things than meets the eye. Thank you.

[@Михаил-ш4э5ч]

It’s amazing to see these comments about how everything is fine in Russian economy. I live in Russia, and for the last three years for the majority of people things have become significantly worse. Car prices increased at least two times since 2021, as well as housing. Mortgage loans are now 28-29% and have become unaffordable unless you have children younger than 6. Food prices are skyrocketing, 20-30% a year. Meanwhile, a median salaries for the majority of people increased just slightly. There is significant increase only for those working in the military industry and who take a lot of overtime work. Don’t believe Russian statistics, most of this is a lie.

[@nail3r]

The same is happening everywhere. Since COVID, food has doubled and tripled in the UK. Rent is up 30%+, mortgages are higher. Wages have went up but not by much.

[@megapangolin1093]

Do you live in a different part of Russia? I thought that Putin wanted to keep the Siberian population under to stop a breakaway?

[@Михаил-ш4э5ч]

@ I live 400 km from Moscow. The economic situation is roughly the same across the country.

[@north584]

It’s worse here in the U.K.!!! I can tell you as a small business owner the cost of my products that I sell have risen 15% every year for the last 3 years. Food has gone up 30%+ , eneergy has doubles and rent has gone up 40%. 5yrs ago I was paying £670 a month for rent a room and the same room is now £950 a month. Add on bills, food, travel and etc. most people in the U.K. are broke and miserable.

[@geocam2]

@@north584 You have 30% mortgage rates?

[@bjrnhjjakobsen2174]

Russia Money Supply M2 increased 18.8 % YoY in Sep 2024, compared with a growth of 17.9 % in the previous month so printers are active and will affect inflation and the poor part of the population.

[@NckBrktt]

When most of your industrial output goes up in smoke a week after it leaves the factory you know it won't end well.

[@shawngrinter2747]

China is somewhat in the same situation as a lot if their capital spend ends up being unused or economically unviable which whilst not as spectacular as going up in smoke is economically the same, in fact sometimes worse as they have to pay to maintain them.

[@geocam2]

Russian losses are estimated to be as high as 10,000 per week. The USA lost around 4,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan combined over the entire time we were there. Those losses caused the disgrace and collapse of the neoliberal wing of the GOP and turned the GOP from a conservative to a populist party. I can't imagine what political changes are in store for Russia due to the pointless losses that are hundreds of times higher.

[@phils4634]

Yet, it's the Ukraine that is press-ganging unwilling "conscripts"? Stop listening to Western Media, and listen to other, not necessarily Russian, sources. Russian losses are a fraction of this number, whilst, for Ukraine (and their Western "mercenaries"), things are much worse, and, I note, becoming even harder.

[@bombheadgames9565]

Despite South Africa's absolute determination to keep Apartheid the relentless pressure of sanctions finally forced it to capitulate on it. Putin's absolute determination to keep Ukraine is no different.

[@VTh-f5x]

South Africa was sanctioned by all the countries. 45% of global economy is open for Russia.

[@Ed-ti1ss]

Sounded a lot like BBC, platitudes and generalisations, without any insight.

[@vonder7]

Most Russian soldiers were shocked to see that toilets can actually be inside the house in Ukraine. Some of them saw washing machines for the first time in their life. This says a lot about their economic situation.

[@ballshippin3809]

And apparently they are fighting with nothing but shovels too, but they are still somehow winning against NATO backed Ukraine?🤔.....

[@vonder7]

@ nec Hercules contra pluers. For every 1 Ukrainian 4 Russians have died. But Russia has almost infinite amounts of land and people that will go fight for 10 rubels and a bottle of vodka.

[@vonder7]

@@ballshippin3809 there is no scarcity of land and people willing to go on the frontline for a bottle of voodka, 10 rubels worth of lard and brand new pair of footwraps.

[@bubba842]

Don't forget, the new washing machine narrative is butter. Apparently Russian can't buy butter, according to western MSM. But there are plenty of videos on KZbin debunking this nonsense. Just where do western politicians and media come up with these blatent lies?? What's amazing though is that some people actually believe this nonsense.

[@vonder7]

@@ballshippin3809 you are right, it’s hard to fight with people who are willing to die for a brand new pair of combat footwraps and 10 rubels worth of lard.

[@HMG2119]

Yeah they’ve used all their washing machines and shovels to fight in Ukraine. No more washing machine parts left.

[@bloodywanker781]

Nothing ever happens

[@gg41r]

Id love for the russians to reject their leadership regime, get a good leader in place and join with the rest of us. Humans Together Strong......or something like that

[@VTh-f5x]

West needs to evolve into humanity for that. Toi hard.

[@vonder7]

@@VTh-f5xwas it the west that attacked Ukraine and murdered innocent children?

[@vonder7]

@@thetruth9210 yeah, fantastic guy 😆

[@klawlor3659]

Strangely enough, at the last elections in Russia the people had a choice of voting for 28 different political parties. They could very easily reject Putin, but obviously they choose not to. Yeltsin was a drunken western-led lacky who basically sold off anything that wasn't welded down so I guess Russia needed a more effective leadership.

[@insomniacresurrected1000]

@@gg41r Putin is a good leader.

[@samgragas8467]

Real wages increased by 18% in two years after inflation, real GDP increased 7%, population increased by more than 5 million, reserves grew and debt to GDP did not increase. I would say they are doing amazing.

[@wizzyno1566]

There has been no population increase.

[@happyfelix1440]

How many of these 5 millions are old women on occupied territory?

[@vonder7]

Da Da Volodia, kanietschna 😂

[@vorong2ru]

Lol is this a joke.

[@sergeyi.7037]

@@vorong2ru I guess this is just an RT channel's regular viewer

[@Mahdi20832]

if russia is limiting its business in US$.... that doesn't mean economy falling.... 😂😂 it is doing business in another currency 😂

[@wizzyno1566]

No. They'll be fine.

[@slawomirozdoba4605]

Rouble is tanking today: 1 United States Dollar equals 104.35 Russian Ruble

[@Bolton19]

Seems to be doing leaps and bounds better than the UK economy

[@otavongryf1379]

Keep dreaming

[@xtc2v]

@@otavongryf1379 Britain has not made a fiscal surplus for the last 25 years. You are the one that is dreaming

[@sergeyi.7037]

@@xtc2v Fiscal surplus is just one of many metrics. And it tells little about the quality of economic growth. In the case of the UK, they would fare better with higher fiscal deficits, not with stupid austerity

[@otavongryf1379]

@@xtc2v Fiscal surplus means you pull money out of the economy, its nothing to celebrate. Learn how money works

[@hello855]

@@xtc2v The US has the worst national debt problem. But no one thinks it doesn't have the strongest economy. The UK has its own issues, but assuming that Russia has it better is seriously wrong.

[@userwinnner1313]

Brilliant analysis. Thanks😊

[@andyburgess3225]

😂😂😂 the bullshit these people come out with.

[@dannylad1600]

Yeah theyre fk'd. Next question..

[@orenalbertmeisel3127]

Why? I've heard this since February 2022 and nothing happens

[@bjorntorlarsson]

Russia was f'd 2½ years ago when ALL western MSM and NATO Generals said that Russia has run out of ammo and that Putin is dying from cancer. Then they all kept repeating that mantra everyday for over 2 years! That is severe mental illness and inability to apprehend anything that exists in reality.

[@dannylad1600]

@orenalbertmeisel3127 currently its 130 roubles to the pound and still climbing with interest rates at 21 percent, exports down and inflation rates high as well. They've also lost the majority of their military by starting a pointless war on Ukraine. I honestly dont know how you think everything's rosy in Russia?

[@orenalbertmeisel3127]

@dannylad1600 the ruble is slightly weaker compared to 2021. Inflation is down since the record levels in Juli-August this year. If Russia has lost the majority of their military, how on earth are they managing to take more Ukrainian territory every day? I legit don't get why people like you keep falling for these lies and fantasy narratives over and over again

[@supersurfer1]

@@dannylad1600😂 you’ve been watching too much sky news Danny boy. You do realise you are being led down the garden path.

[@paul_london]

Russia's economy was running with surplus, just before their assets have been stolen by EU and UK. Even with the war ongoing they enjoy growth. This can not be said about the UK where the future is very bleak. Don't forget that UK is running with deficit and relies on borrowing to sustain the ageing population.

[@vonder7]

Because all socialist states are ineffective and eventually will collapse.

[@klawlor3659]

Exactly. The aging population really is the elephant in the room. That and the skills shortages, abysmal infrastructure, abysmal governance and atrocious conditions for business growth all spell long term misery.

[@HeirToTheScarletSky]

You suddenly have a huge influx of pro Russian users in your comment section. No wonder employment is so low. They're all being paid to post propaganda online 😂

[@klawlor3659]

I thought they'd all been killed by the "Ghost of Kiev" and the "Miracle of Bakhmut"? Most Ukrainians fled their wonderful paradise (8 million+)....little wonder they're recruiting 50+ year olds to man the barricades! Sorry just a Russian bot here typing from deepest Cumbria. Pls don't tell Kier, wouldn't want to end up in the slammer 😅

[@gregwong2132]

Any day now. How about the UK?

[@Wsadef]

its cooked. same wages since 2010. Graduate schemes pays around 25k a year in 2024. In 2010 graduate schemes used to pay 23-25k Rent - 500PCM for 2 bed house in 2010. 900PCM for same house in 2024.

[@vonder7]

@@Wsadefwhere can you find a house for 900 pm, in rural Wales? In London it’s 2000 minimum, to rent a room it’s 1100. And salaries are like 1600 gbp per month 😂 uk is a third world country.

[@paul_london]

UK is like a drunk relative, currently relies on borrowing just to sustain its addiction to public services.

[@bjrnhjjakobsen2174]

The IMF is looking for offices in the UK😂

[@klawlor3659]

I love how all these idiots go on about how Russia is sliding into the financial abyss. A country that is huge, has trade links with some of the most influential regions of the world and has vast amounts of natural resources (gold, lithium, oil, gas, coal to name but a few). Compare that to dogshit UK, where anything outside London is comparable to the third world, hospitals have in excess of 8 million on their waiting list, people with skills and money can't wait to leave and their armed forces couldn't fight a bag of chips. Jeez, delusions of grandeur with some folk!

[@ballshippin3809]

People still thinking Russia is still the same as it was in the post Soviet 90's. Russia is a serious power now

[@vonder7]

@@ballshippin3809 😆 Kanietshna Sergei

[@James-tv4pl]

A serious power but can't win a direct war against a NATO proxy?

[@deuterium08]

Hey there, a Russian here. Good video overall, I'd like to clarify an important detail about war-induced economic boom: before 2022, the poorest ~50% of russians were kept deliberately poor (so as to be disempowered and not be a threat to the government, basically the deliberate victims of the 'middle income trap') and economy was on purpose mismanaged to not benefit them at all; the government didn't need them, they were a liability, so the elites plundered the poor (while more often than not moving capitals abroad to the West). Since 2022, the government all of a sudden does need those poorer russians to be employed in the war industry. These poorest 50% suddenly see dramatic (real) wage increases, 'coz the government needs multi-shift employees. The elites no longer mismanage the economy so badly on purpose, and for sure no longer move the 'plundered' wealth abroad to the West. Boosting the wages of the working class naturally trickles up and makes the whole economy better. I can confirm that the Russian economy at the moment is doing quite a bit better than 3-5 years before, and I mostly expect it to last for the near future due to the reasons I explained above: trickle-up and an incentive to actually enrich the population.

[@MrKoxe111]

Seems unliekly, Having interest rates at 21% and all the other problems explained in the Video. You are experiencing an overheating economy all the money you described going to the people is good short term but since it produces military products your economy gets slowly killed. You got 1-2 years before the downward spiral is incoming we can already see all the indicators from interest rates to inflation and the weakening ruble...

[@deuterium08]

@@MrKoxe111 May well be the case. I was making a narrow point: A) "bottom 50%" and B) "at the moment". Believe me, I'm very apprehensive about the future. The overheat into downward spiral is a plausible scenario, but I'd say it's far from inevitable. We shall wait and see. To reiterate what I was saying, I'm just slightly annoyed that noone puts it the way I did earlier: the economy was *on purpose* badly mismanaged, and now that this is no longer the case, the negative effect of sanctions and of "SMO" are not even enough to compensate the positive effect of sensible policies.

[@MrKoxe111]

@@deuterium08 I get what you are saying but the economy may be more effective in the short term, but long term its even worse than it was before since all future prospect are fucked the longer the war goes on, ... but yeah nobody to blame than Putin and all the Russians who support the war ....

[@RB-cs5dw]

We don’t need to worry about Russian economy as UK is collapsing as we speak 😂

[@vonder7]

Yeah, we need to further increase taxes! It should be at least 90 percent

[@simonkriznik3437]

Median adult wealth UK: 151,825 U$, meanwhile in Russia: 8,595 U$

[@vonder7]

@@simonkriznik3437 median boomers wealth in the uk 1M (in mediocre housing) median under 30 wealth -25000 😆

[@simonkriznik3437]

Of course, not only in the UK boomers who worked for 40 years have more wealth than zoomers/millenials at the start of their careers. They will inherit boomer's wealth and are already 3x wealthier the than median Russian in prehistoric housing without indoor toilets, running water or central heating. Why do Russian oligarchs launder their money and reputation in Londongrad, and not vice versa?

[@simonkriznik3437]

Of course, not only in the UK boomers who worked for 40 years have more wealth than zoomers/millenials at the start of their careers. They will inherit boomer's wealth and are already 3x wealthier the than median Russian in prehistoric housing without indoor toilets, running water or central heating. Why do Russian oligarchs launder their money and reputation in Londongrad, and not vice versa?

[@bjorntorlarsson]

GDP growth during war comes at the cost of huge government decifits and debt growth. But Russia's deficit is 1% of GDP, debt 15%, and their foreigh currency reserve is at all time high in spite of EU's theft. Much growth is import substitution, domestic entrepreneurs taking over after now absent Western consumer goods (brands).

[@vorong2ru]

There is no growth. There are billions thrown into the military spend and lots of shady imports through 3rd countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan. Inflation is high and it doesn't seem to stop despite high interest rates so things aren't as great as you are trying to portrait them.

[@bjorntorlarsson]

​@@vorong2ru Inflation has been double digit since the 1980s, and living standards in Russia has grown substantially last couple of decades. Real wages now grow by something like 4%. And public finances are super great compared with the US or Europe. Sure, they need more workers, and companies are borrowing to invest in automation in order to benefit from the substitution of former Western imports of consumer goods (brands that aren't any popular anymore, and those "Western" goods are mostly made in Asia). I can't find a figure that looks worse for Russia than for, say, any of the G7 countries. They fight, and win, this war with their left hand thanks to their industrial capacity being vastly superior that of the entire Western world combined. I mean, just look at those 40-50 years old NATO weapons (ATACMS, Javelin, Patriot, Abrahms, F-16 et cetera). They are hopeless. Nothing useful is manufactured in the West anymore.

[@supersurfer1]

Russia is doing significantly better than any western country and I mean significantly. Can we please get our own house in order before we look at others.

[@hughjohns9110]

Please tell us how Russia is doing better…

[@supersurfer1]

@ do some research buddy. You should realise that they have won the Ukraine war and are better equipped than any western country and furthermore are totally self sufficient with all natural resources and thousands of tonnes of gold reserves. What have we got in broken britain ☹️ ?

[@annaclarke7643]

You keep telling yourself this nonsense Sergei.

[@jeffsterling2809]

Sure mate

[@supersurfer1]

@@annaclarke7643 yes Karen 🤣

[@sergeyi.7037]

Cheers from Russia! I'm a big fan of this channel. Long-term stagnation and structural degradation for the Russian economy now seems to be unavoidable. Real inflation currently is like 18%. The official inflation of 8.7% is a complete mockery. No one takes that number seriously. Not only because Bank of Russia's rate is 21%, but because, as a vey indicative and telling marker, VAT volume collected grows 22% year on year. Even if (rather IF) we believe in real economic growth of 3%, then that increase of 22% of VAT volume collected minus 3% of supposed real economic growth leaves real inflation at like 19% or something. But in actuality there is no real economic growth, and no real wage increases. The official growth for GDP at a rate 3% is very debatable. If the statistical authorities used a slightly higher rate for GDP deflator in their calculations, there would not be any economic growth despite all military production. But they are too scared to dissapoint Crazy and Merciless Ruler, so they 'massage' all numbers to demonstrate at least some growth numbers. And the main loony patient is very happy about that implied stability of the economy. The economy outside the military-industrail complex is definitely shrinking. I would assume roughly by 2-3% year on year. As an illustration, the choice of foods (especially qualitywise) in supermarkets is deteorating. As if before all the madness the foods in Russia were ok, but not it's getting even worse. Not soon, but in 3-5 years from now we here will be like 20-25% down in living standarts. It's not a rapid catastrophy, but a pretty unpleasant situation.

[@SapereAude1490]

How do you guys even have access to KZbin? Through VPNs?

[@sergeyi.7037]

@@SapereAude1490 Mostly VPN, but also special browser plug-ins, and specail programms like Goodbye-DPI. Not that hard. And mobile operators mostly still allow connection to KZbin. So far, so good. Luckily, de-blocking solutions still outpace blocking methods. And this status-qwo is convinient for both users and authorities. Internet authorities earn a lot of federal budget money on partial blocking for KZbin. They are the first who are not interested in complete switch off for KZbin, only partial problems. That's a piece of Russian logic for you :)))

[@Daytona2]

I really appreciate your insight, thank you

[@silafaupaulmeredith7251]

Russia needs to forge closer ties with Asia and increase its presence in Africa and in BRICS. Also, its immigration policies to address Labor shortages. Russia is now facing huge increases in FDI and that has to be channelled to the right sectors but the key fundamentals are there. Huge resources, educated labour force and closer geography to Asia where global growth is expected to be generated in the next 50 years

[@silafaupaulmeredith7251]

@@thetruth9210 Well stated. It was a pity because EU countries are cut from cheap energy from Russia.

[@bortstanson2034]

But how's Ukraine's economy doing and what are it's future prospects? Catastrophe

[@VTh-f5x]

Fantastic future as a part of Russia.

[@vonder7]

@@VTh-f5xyeah, it’s so fantastic that most of you don’t have a toilet in the house.

[@klawlor3659]

​@@thetruth9210Exactly. I've been to Ukraine 8 years ago. Dirt tracks, poor infrastructure, corrupt officials and houses that were literally falling to bits everywhere. Here's a thing. If Ukraine with western support "win", the reality is they "lose". Billions of dollars in debt to pay back for decades to come, falling population and an infrastructure that will cost trillions of dollars to repair. I've no skin in the game but this conflict literally has no winning scenario for Ukraine. Even if they "win", they LOSE.

[@bjorntorlarsson]

Rouble depends much on oil/gas prices, because that's as good as cash. The Rouble exchange rate reelative to the de-industrialized depressed isolated West currencies is irrelevant. Russia now trades with the industrialized civilized non-Western 90% of the world where rule of law is upheld. What does the UK make that anyone wants?

[@samgragas8467]

Dollar increased 5% due to fear of tariffs.

[@wizzyno1566]

Exactly. I live in the UK and we make fxck all and have used all our natural resources. If all trade stopped tomorrow russia would suffer but survive. We'd all walk everywhere and starve.

[@klawlor3659]

If Putin has his way (and the Russian banks) the Ruble will be gold backed. Think of the value of it then?!

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