Is the AI Boom Real?

Notes:
7:50 - TPUs are in their fifth iteration. Messed up.
Links:
- The Asianometry Newsletter: www.asianometry.com
- Patreon: / asianometry
- Threads: www.threads.net/@asianometry
- Twitter: / asianometry

[@necrospencer658]

all this technology and the finality of it : ads

[@johnkaplun9619]

Could it be the linchpin in finding a groundbreaking cancer drug? Maybe. But think about what it could do for advertising!

[@necrospencer658]

@@johnkaplun9619 always tie your goals with the shareholders in mind! You obviously don't want to waste their precious money.

[@michaelgachanja8396]

Left me feeling depressed.

[@jurian0101]

Little do we know, AGI really stands for Ads Generating Intelligence.

[@f1mbultyr]

ads, fake news and propaganda

[@Joe-xq3zu]

I hate how companies will spend obscenely huge sums of money to build a better add campaign, but they won't spend a penny more than they have to when it comes to delivering an actual quality product and will cut every corner they can get away with in production rather than just making a better product.

[@swojnowski453]

good luck to them, my ads blocker has been working like charm for the last 3 years, no ads observed around ;)

[@Tudorgeable]

because the numb consumers buy,they don't have the capacity to be conscious for long periods of time so they do whatever they are programmed to do. If the better product won, companies wouldn't have spent more on marketing and advertising than the actual product. Ethically, how I see it is this is a systemic issue, created by smart psychologists who knew how to exploit the human psyche well enough to create fake wants/"needs", marketing should be regulated to hell and disincetivized, as it directly leads to mindless numb unconscious consumer behaviour. Ads & marketing are shit, and make everything shittier basically

[@teykengwei]

Why? Because consumers are suckers for marketing instead of letting quality of the products to talk for themselves.

[@joshowens2219]

Doesnt matter how good a product is if you cant market it. People are too stupid and get bamboozled by savy marketers.

[@Templaru]

That's because the money comes from marketing. No matter how good your product is publicity and marketing brings you money.

[@mattiasl8086]

Great video, as always. Nvidia is selling a lot of pickaxes today but that doesn't mean everyone will find Californian gold

[@government_costumes-ui5lx]

It's a stocks scam!

[@BrianHockenmaier]

Might not happen in this wave but eventually artificial neural nets will be more capable than our meat ones in every way. There will be no bigger boom. Potentially a never-ending boob

[@johndoh5182]

No, Nvidia are solving REAL world problems, some INCREDIBLY hard problems to solve using AI with their OWN software engineering team and their OWN hardware. No other company can do what Nvidia does and some group of engineers think they can come in and push Nvidia off their throne and it's not going to happen. Nvidia has had the smartest software engineers in the world for years now, they get paid a lot, and it's why Nvidia is expensive to use. If you're been following this channel then you should understand the significance of just this ONE thing they did: "Nvidia scientists created new algorithms that allow increasingly-complex computational lithography workflows to execute on GPUs in parallel, exhibiting a 40X speedup using Hopper GPUs. The new algorithms are integrated into a new cuLitho acceleration library that can be integrated into mask makers' software (typically a foundry or a chip designer). The cuLitho acceleration library is also compatible with Ampere and Volta GPUs, though Hopper is the fastest solution." That 40X speedup means instead of taking days to make a mask for an IC that has billions of transistors on it, to less than a day, using about 1/10 the equipment. And that 40X increase in speed was based on a comparison to NEW servers trying to do the same thing. Nvidia has the smartest people in the room, no matter where they are. It's why their stock valuation has shot to the moon and their sales are astronomical. I mean you can look at the PC market, IF you follow the technology and Nvidia has revolutionized graphics processing, AGAIN, a FEW TIMES in the last 5 years. They did this many years ago too, which is what ended every other graphics hardware company other than ATI which AMD bought up. But AMD isn't innovating in that market, they're following Nvidia. Nvidia brought ray tracing for lighting/shading to gaming and they brought AI processing/upscaling to speed everything up. I see comments all the time where people say ray tracing isn't important to them. OK, but it's what the game devs WANT to use and there are now games that if the GPU can't do RT acceleration, you can't play the game, and this is where lighting/shading in games is heading like it or not because it's easier for game devs and if it's easier the company, more and more being Microsoft since they've bought up so many game companies, it costs less for the company to MAKE the game. In another 3 - 4 years, there won't be new games being developed that doesn't use RT. Nvidia made that happen. And then you simply look at PC gaming performance for graphics with AMD and Nvidia, and AMD has NOTHING that can compete with top end Nvidia graphics. And for the next gen products that will release in the next year, it gets even worse, to the point AMD dropped the idea of launching the top tier graphics chip, and are only putting out their mid and low tier chip, and it's because Nvidia has buried AMD and it's going to take two more generations of products for AMD to get out of the hole. AMD just wasn't ready for how quickly the gaming world was going to move to ray tracing and a desire to use AI-upscaling, and even with the new gaming consoles that will come out in the next 3 years (Sony PS5 Pro end of this year/early 2025), SONY had to develop their OWN AI-upscaling and push at AMD to have the right balance of cores in the custom chip AMD will put in the PS5 Pro. And MICROSOFT has to do the same thing, develop their OWN AI-upscaling to use with the AMD chip that will run next gen Xbox which should come out 2026 (2 years earlier than their original roadmap). So, AMD is only creating hardware solutions; Nvidia creates COMPLETE solutions. Nvidia offers hardware for many solutions, and yes they hype many things that don't interest many people, but that doesn't change the fact that Nvidia is ALSO solving INCREDIBLY hard engineering problems, and they can't make AI hardware fast enough.

[@jamesphillips2285]

@@BrianHockenmaier Simulating neural nets may run into awkward philosophical barriers around the nature of self. I suspect "strong AI" is not possible without a body; that is likely to need many years to mature.

[@robertjay9415]

californian gold is the space frontier

[@jairo8746]

You said it, AI will be a new tool for the rich to become richer, by just removing the expense of hiring people.

[@betag24cn]

hopefully it is just that, so bezos can build his elisium space station and leave us behind

[@dmytrotarasov9477]

People used to tell the same when machines became a thing, when computers changed people doing math on paper and so on. Your current job will be replaced by a machine and you'll have another type of job, a more productive one compared to your current one.

[@daddyguy29]

Yeah but if people don't have jobs then they don't have money to buy things

[@Sg6CrossOver]

Selling products to unemployed people doesn't sound too good of a idea

[@kippgoeden]

This is why capitalism needs to be left in the past. We have the technology for something greater.

[@stuartclifton4764]

It's so annoying to hear "AI powered this" AI powered that" in every new device and service

[@christophermullins7163]

Is it though? Lol AI will make your life easier and take your job. You don't want to be poor and thoroughly entertained? What's wrong with that?! 😂

[@paulmichaelfreedman8334]

Of course capitalism will misuse the term and the technology to attract early adopters. But it's also natural. It's how new tech becomes more affordable to modal incomes - early adopters are willing to pay the premium that wille ventually lead to price reduction. When new tech is introduced there is always a hype. Once it is mainstream, we don't even notice it anymore, it has become a part of life, just like the smartphone became our personal data bank.

[@ShinSheel]

As AI dev I'd tell 95% cases is just doing with AI what would work much better without.

[@stuartclifton4764]

​@@paulmichaelfreedman8334that is very true!

[@TheClanAdventures]

I'm a outdoor adventure guide I don't get bored and fake Ai isn't coming for my job.. @@christophermullins7163

[@ECTCalvin]

The acquired podcast mentioned/praised the Asianometry channel in one of their Nvidia episodes. Now Asianometry mentioning acquired, is making it full circle

[@user-gs3tq6bx2u]

You scratch my back, err, subscribers and I'll scratch yours....AI could have told you that.

[@tondekoddar7837]

It's nice seeing full circle in many YT channels, the creators of certain thing meet to talk about it, make webs... Yeah. Like any ads - thing everything seems to converge to now-a-days even more so.

[@oldo-nicho]

Spot on! That shout out by the acquired guys was what put me onto Asianometry in the first place ❤

[@hugodesrosiers-plaisance3156]

When working on outlining a writing project, I thought I'd give GTP4 a try as a writing assistant and sounding board. It was very impressive at first. I essentially just gave it all the outline material I'd worked on so far, and then I was able to have it give me summaries as I worked to connect all my points together. It was essentially remembering everything I'd come up with for me, completely uncluttering my mind and allowing me to focus on specific points with a lot more ease. And then I could ask it to take what I'd just done and suggest connections with the rest of the outline. It made working almost obsessingly easy. Then I tried to ask it for suggestions of points to add, way to tackle certain questions, etc. I could ask for historical references (which I would double-check), point out possible logical fallacies, etc. I was very impressed. And then I I started to realize how all of it was turning out to be an echo chamber of my own thoughts, and while some material GPT provided me with was indeed very useful, much of it was also just my own thoughts rehashed in a way that made it a bit harder to spot, especially in the middle of a creative momentum. So yeah, super interesting, but major caveats. Whoever uses such tools should remain wary.

[@lazymass]

Well, nobody said LLM is some magic that will do 100% of your work. On the other hand it can help tremendously with any task that includes understanding text and its context in any situation. Not even talking about coding, where LLM is already used daily by almost every developer i know.

[@johanngambolputty5351]

I have been wondering at times how much of it is a bit of an illusion, just kinda talking to ourselves, a bit like ELIZA in the 60s.

[@excalibro8365]

It might be not that great for now, but considering how much AI has evolved these past 2 years who knows where we'll be at in 5 years. AI won't go away, it'll only get better.

[@personzorz]

They are only good for transforming structured information you give them, not doing anything that you evoke from within the model itself

[@mannaggiacristo]

Have you considered the possibility that your task was just very easy and probably already done in various form by other people on the internet?

[@krismicinski]

I love your work, John. I am a computer scientist who works on running symbolic AI (as opposed to just ML, which is generally dense rather than sparse) on GPU clusters. If you ever visit Syracuse, let me know, they say they’re building a memory fab here down the line.

[@geekinasuit8333]

Consider a mixture, using both ML/I and symbolic AI integrated together in some way. There's no reason to keep the two concepts fully separated. The work I've started combines the two concepts, along-side a new kind of database that can store highly flexible information specifically for such a situation. Density will help reduce the scale problem significantly, and ML can overcome some of the significant limitations of a pure symbolic methodology. Of course, easier said than done, there's much to learn and a lot of work ahead.

[@markdin2988]

@@geekinasuit8333isn't that what a mixed model LLM will do? Like mistral

[@beng4647]

Im leaving Syracuse next week. This city is a nightmare.

[@TheManinBlack9054]

@@markdin2988 no, if youre talking about mixture of experts than its just a lot of different LLMs with their own specialities inside one big model

[@dinorossi6611]

@@beng4647 Americana ... a continent in a rapid decline. AI will just add to its dystopia.

[@CraftyF0X]

If our best use case for AI technologies reamain ads, we have already achieved the dreaded misalignment...

[@swojnowski453]

that's the reason google is in it and fb is in it ... and I have adblocked them ;)

[@jackdaniels5538]

If the misalignment is what I think you're referring to then unfortunately we've been there for a long time already.

[@nicholasmolberg1043]

Release the hypnodrones

[@sofianikiforova7790]

Help chatbots and human language based application APIs are a pretty damn good use case for LLMs.

[@swojnowski453]

@@sofianikiforova7790 they are not, none of these LLMs can be trusted in critical situations. Their stuff is probability based. It is not True/False, it is whatever is more than 50% only. Good for children but not for grownups.

[@rocketman1058]

I can see you're travelling on Boeing Max, you're a very brave man

[@ArifGhostwriter]

He's got his little bottle of threadlock - so all good.

[@Peichen01]

@@ArifGhostwriter Not when the whole bolt is missing

[@djblackprincecdn]

Like the late 90s, you'd buy a computer and literally a week later it was superseded by something better which was obsolete a week after that.

[@swojnowski453]

never invest in the new tech, always buy second hand

[@hdjfjd8]

​@@swojnowski453 Yes a generation older wont harm & gets the job done

[@geekinasuit8333]

What you describe (exaggerated to make a point) is still going on today. There however was a period of time, around 2006 and 2016 when not much was changing year/year. Intel's main competitor AMD was headed towards bankruptcy, and Intel was doing next to nothing in terms of innovations and progress (4 cores, followed by 4 cores, similar specs after similar specs, gen after gen). AMD significantly restructured, replaced key leaders with fresh minds, and came up with a novel "chiplet" approach to CPU design. AMD radically changed teh CPU market and restarted the "obsolete after you bought" situation all over again. I agree with you that the AI situation will also change drastically from here. Much of the current form of GPUs probably will be obsolete in only 2 years from now, and at least 100 billion will be spent on such HW over this year alone.

[@megalonoobiacinc4863]

@@geekinasuit8333damn it all, first the crypto currency boom had to skyrocket GPU prices and now AI will likely do the same. Well, my 2019 comp will probably last a few good years

[@UltimateGattai]

@@megalonoobiacinc4863 I feel like cryptocurrency barely went anywhere though, it kinda fizzled out, probably because there was too much scamming in the sector, same with blockchain and NFTs, although in the case of blockchain, they tried to shove it into everything without a proper use case for it. Looking at AI, I'm not sure where it's heading, but it's definitely a bubble right now, and people are over-estimating what it can do, that might change in 5 or 10 years. But I think we'll find that it's best used in specific use cases, and that it won't be the silver bullet for everything people think it will be. We also haven't put much thought into the legalities and regulation of AI either, so when things really pop off, it'll be like Pandora's Box, it's already like that now with the things people are using it for.

[@sigmundhoenigsberg5105]

Each time that i have used an LLMs for work --as opposed to as a gimmick-- I have been disappointed: The accuracy just isn't there, have to re-do the whole thing by foot to be sure of the results.

[@lazymass]

Depends on what kind of work and what your inputs to it were, since vague short input creates bad outputs and what you describe... Precise inputs, well structured, ideally with well structured informations that needs to be included or understood on the other hand can create unbelievably good results. So it sounds more like skill issue, not LLM issue. Unless you expect it to do 100% of your work, which would be silly at this point

[@turbochargedfilms]

"by foot" what kinda work you doing there

[@joelkroodsma4903]

I tend to agree… gpt is not a digital butler but a somewhat dull but loyal and tireless assistent.

[@TigreXspalterLP]

think of it more like a new intern when giving instructions, then it works pretty well

[@brodriguez11000]

@@TigreXspalterLP Interns will either suffer, or utter a sigh of relief.

[@jimmygervaisnet]

I'm impressed by the power of LLMs, which I had underestimated a lot a decade ago, but as long as it can't question and learn on the fly, it's not intelligent. Right now I notice that "AI" is used mainly by opportunists to make money in ways that I find detrimental to society. More ads is certainly not what we need moving forward.

[@smiro2000]

I hope you had a great time on your trip! Thank you for the thoughtful insight.

[@H0mework]

Thanks for suggesting the substack article from dwarkesh patel, it also includes audio for anyone interested. With the 1x robotics using a low 10Hz and a single GPU and a neural network to run several robots the boom may not be in LLMs.

[@brendansully12]

First video of yours I've seen, glad the algorithms brought me to you, I look forward to seeing more in the future.

[@tweezerman123]

2:36 Fyi, gist is pronounced like 'jist'

[@PCproffesorx]

haha was looking for this comment before i said something.

[@jaleger2295]

No. It's not

[@chairwood]

what do you mean?​@@jaleger2295

[@samsamm777]

@@jaleger2295 Yes it is.

[@josipcuric8767]

Hes pronouncing it like that on purpose

[@stevengill1736]

Anything to do with ads is gonna be completely wasted on me. I can see a LLM PA somewhere in there, but the rest gets a "meh" from me so far.... Great video, thank you!

[@mattholden5]

@Asianometry Thanks Jon, very insightful piece. I'd love to see a deeper dive into the particulars of these ASICs as details become available.

[@2005kpboy]

Only for Nvidia shareholders...

[@Mike-fx4nu]

The only way to make money on stocks is to sell them higher than one buys them for. Unrealized wealth is as valuable as air.

[@laCruz40oz]

as someone who bought all my shares in 2022 and has never used chatgpt this hits the nail on the head.

[@insu_na]

​@@Mike-fx4nuyes, so good thing for Nvidia shareholders that the share price has consistently been going up at a very strong pace. If you bought nvda 4 months ago and sold today you'd make a very tidy profit

[@Tential1]

​@@Mike-fx4nuwhich is why rich people sell their stocks and sit on mountains of cash. No, what's that, they don't? They own stocks, rarely sell, and literally leverage up to buy more? It's like, rich people tell you what they do, and you still do the opposite. I don't even feel bad for people who struggle anymore. People who struggle actually deserve it.

[@Mike-fx4nu]

@@Tential1 What is this blubbering?

[@mannaggiacristo]

It’s mind boggling to me how OpenAI literally wrote “more power implies more performance” in LaTeX and somehow this gets treated as some groundbreaking news. Like, I’m well aware that the level of scientific research is at an all time low and pretty much anything can be passed as some big step forward in tech and science, but this shit is too much for me…

[@Sg6CrossOver]

Same with Nvidia cards when their architecture fell behind the tsmc and they had to push cards consuming twice as much to have a small performance edge

[@dziban303]

AI has been pretty useless to me so far aside from saving some time coding, but it has definitely caused the quality of a *lot* of the internet to plummet to new lows. It's so easy to spot AI generated text and images, and its just so lazy, that I will deliberately avoid buying whatever is being hawked with it.

[@ashenmint]

It is just your hunch and it is wrong. There are already government initiatives on using AI generated misinformation and propaganda (I am talking about Russian bots) and people buying into this.

[@mrbeastly3444]

LLMs are currently only 1% the size of a Human brain. Just wait until they are 20%, 50%, 100%... It won't be that long, 1-2 years.

[@raptorate2872]

It's still in its infancy but growing at rapid rate cuz of the VC money being thrown at it. Everybody knows most companies will fail but that's not the point, the point is to make them better and hopefully one of em is the next big payout. We already came a long way since simple chat LLMs were introduced. Technology and innovation is rapid wherever the money is being thrown at and where where technology is but restrained. For software, the advantage was our hardware capabilities advanced much faster than our utilisation of it, with AI, it's finally catching up to the point where we just make better improvements to hardware. It's the same in other STEM fields as well.

[@maverickstclare3756]

ChatGPT is a year old but AI Dungeon, which used GPT2, was launched in 2019

[@magesalmanac6424]

I thought gpt2 never came out in any form?

[@millionare5446]

@@magesalmanac6424 it was famously delayed because of "safety", but the full models are public since 2019

[@Stone_624]

It's amazing to me how everyone just kinda forgot that IBM's Watson, WITHOUT INTERNET CONNECTIVITY, Beat the World Record Jeopardy players in 2011. 13 YEARS AGO. Like, we're loosing our minds over what is EFFECTIVELY 15 year old technology here.

[@Naomi-xu4hq]

@@Stone_624I mean there’s always been AI in video games or regular games that were hard to beat. But that was easier for people to understand. Now that it’s unknown like anything everyone panicks

[@Lisekplhehe]

Man, AI dungeon was a fever dream. Got some weird cool little stories out of that one, but in multiplayer it was horrible.

[@Kenbomp]

Really great to see the progress of this channel. Always getting better

[@sg5184]

Its funny how everyone says they hate rehashes and then leans into a technology that is literally a rehash mill

[@yuriy5376]

Maybe they just hate competition 🤣

[@scotturner3178]

Maybe a dumb question, but to produce output Ai require a massive network of inputs. The output AI produces becomes part of the input for future AI. Is this going to have a feedback effect?

[@BHBalast]

Yes, it's a problem and it's known. The industry tends to go for generated datasets of very specific tasks anyway.

[@Saliferous]

Yes. It basically degrades over time. They'll say they've fixed it by using "simulated data" or "synthetic data"... let me explain how that works. They take an image.... flip it, and "oh look, brand new data". So small changes to the old, good data they have.

[@personzorz]

It does. There are reams of papers now on how as you include the output of AI systems in the inputs of the next one's training, it falls in quality and representation of the real world and runs away into pathological attractors. For lack of a better analogy, its like AI systems are 'tuned to the same frequency' as the outputs they put out and intrinsically pay much more attention to AI outputs in their inputs.

[@100c0c]

​@@SaliferousYou don't know what you're talking about.

[@nightpups5835]

Yes, and it's already breaking many of the AI image and llm models. The snake of ai is already eating it's own tail.

[@theodorhesper3539]

Thanks! Waiting for the results of your follow up trip!

[@richteffekt]

Thank you once again for taking the time and effort to give us your level headed thoughts on a matter where there's not an awful lot of wisdom around at the moment.

[@zhli4238]

On scaling up, if you look at Nvidia, it's no longer a graphic card company anymore, it is largely a data center company. Jensen Huang of Nvidia was talking about "data gravity", that the large volume of data cannot be transmitted to process it. Then, the demands for accelerator will grow as data center grows.

[@smoothbraindetainer]

Has been for years, long before anyone heard of chatGPT

[@xchazz86]

Just another iteration of improved automation with a new marketing flavor, the rich will always look for ways to cheapen labor at any expense. In the end it’s all about wealth transfer and power consolidation.

[@TheCodeAlwaysWins]

The funny thing is running gpts effectively is not cheap. ChatGPT is currently floating primarily on investor money and burns millions daily.

[@MauroRincon]

Love your insights. Really knowledgeable and down to earth.

[@rembautimes8808]

Great video , like the style analysis and conclusion. Joined as a sub.

[@mceajc]

Even knowing the humour of this channel, I find it difficult to know if the ponunciation of "gist" is intentional or not. Whether it is or isn't, still a fascinating story. Thanks for your hard work!

[@Asianometry]

My bad. I'll edit that.

[@martynnewby6298]

Just leave it and make your contribution to English! Re Feynman and the word "gimmick" as used in the 1930's@@Asianometry

[@filthyE]

@@Asianometry I wouldn't sweat it man. I appreciate your videos and insights immensely. Keep up the great content.

[@filthyE]

@@martynnewby6298 Can you tell me more about Feynman and the word "gimmick"?

[@ThiagoVieira91]

Absolutely loved to hear your take on the AI boom. Eagerly waiting for more. On a related topic, I have been slowly getting fed up with the hype because lots of services lately claim to be powered by AI, but actually they are just applied statistics with a chat bot as frontend. Would like to see a review of companies actually using or not AI or even ML on their services.

[@istvanpraha]

I'm in corporate America, sick of "AI" when it's just regular automation/coding. Why is everyone obsessed with "AI." If you can automate work using "regular" software, why do they think it sounds better to say "AI?" Also most of the jobs they want to automate away already got automated away.....I have no clue how execs haven't realized that. For example, if your company has been growing but the Accounting Dept has been shrinking, that's already due to automation

[@connclissmann6514]

Thanks for the video - stimulating as always.

[@tslaton]

Love your videos, please continue the great work

[@iyziejane]

The comparison to Moore's law is backwards. With neural nets you have to work exponentially harder to improve the results incrementally. This means that progress each year will be less than the previous year, unless resources are ramping up massively (which they already have been, and we are in the ballpark of maximum capacity).

[@swojnowski453]

Time to sell what you can coz there is little prospect for much more progress. Even those trillions might not bring much customers will notice in a couple of years.

[@iyziejane]

@@swojnowski453 Agreed, what we have now is only a little worse than what we'll asymptotically get out of these models. And with NVIDIA stock specifically, they will have hardware competitors before any hyper-optimistic economic transformation can take place. I think that stock is 10x overvalued.

[@jamesbowen2258]

This is essentially what I've been saying since a few weeks after digging into LLMs. We are way, way past the point of diminishing returns. GPT-4 was barely better than GPT-3, and it cost almost 2 orders of magnitude more to make and costs more than 2 orders of magnitude more to run.

[@happycakes1946]

The main problem with AI is that it's trying to solve a complexity problem by converging to a non optimal solution in a reasonable amount of time. AI is way over hyped right now and the marketers are having a field day with it.

[@Halo6166]

You say that, until people loose their jobs soon

[@fenixfve2613]

You speak as if an ordinary person comes to optimal solutions

[@Halo6166]

@@fenixfve2613 for real 😂😂

[@Wobbothe3rd]

Keep that same energy when AI helps cure cancer and HIV.

[@happycakes1946]

@@Wobbothe3rd I hope those problems get solved once and for all, but it's going to require a lot of testing and experimenting still. Cancer is a very complicated disease, I can see how AI can be used to help cure some forms, but it isn't going to be like flicking a switch and the problem is gone. Also, it wouldn't be good to cure your ailment and introduce entirely new ones either.

[@xzy88239]

Great video, as always! Keep going!

[@mmaximk]

Thank you John, I always enjoy your thought-provoking content.

[@roamanxo5882]

It's a gold rush and NVIDIA is selling shovels.

[@charliemopps4926]

I work in software development and... I've never seen a new technology lead to so much change so quickly. One example is, there has been a desire in the phone service industry for decades to monitor customer calls to help "improve" employee interactions. i.e. "be nicer" and "Make more sales offers" etc... but monitoring every in-bound call is not only resource intensive (you need basically an entirely 2nd head-count to do the listening) but also fraught with legal issues. i.e. in a lot of places there are all sorts of complicated laws regarding the legality or listening into someone else's phone conversation or recording it for later playback. AI is not a "person" and as a result, CAN legally listen in to every call. The industry has suddenly been flooded with services where the AI listens to every call, then flags the call interaction... did the agent make the customer happier as the conversation proceeded? Did they make the average 2.5 sales pitches per call? etc... This has been rapidly adopted and replaced entire departments almost overnight... AI seems to be taking out middle management first.

[@brodriguez11000]

AI is as much a person as a business is and will be legally covered that way.

[@charliemopps4926]

I get your point but... think about it going to court. So, are the AI controlled network routers on the telecom networks listening in then? What about your smart phone? See how incredibly complicated the question gets very quickly? It may be that AI will be controlled legally at some point, but that point is many years in the future. We'll need a bunch of legal rulings to be made first.@@brodriguez11000

[@wizaaeed]

This sounds like the fakest story ever, how many times do you think the AI. was even close to guessing the real purpose of the call. And whats the price of using resources to listen to 15 minute sales calls? Think about those 2 points & tell me your story is even close to reality. If it's real it's probably some deterministic algorithm.

[@killsode4760]

​@@wizaaeed You're correct, but how much does that actually matter to the people running these companies that don't have a clue?

[@C4rb0neum]

Yes I agree. Also in software and it’s sometimes hard to not throw the towel in the ring. Copilot and GPT have made me and other developers a lot more productive. At the same time, Tesla has replaced 300k lines of code with AI in their self-driving beta and you see more replacement of software happening. Hand-written software feels more and more like a thing of the past.

[@leosfriend]

Thanks. Always enjoy your shows and the knowledge you share. The world is changing from search to answer. Per Jensen, chat gpt and alike moment, embed in productivity like you mentioned, and then robotics ( industrial)

[@deja00]

I just subbed here. The narrator seems intelligent and asking very interesting and relevant questions.

[@Stone_624]

It's amazing to me how everyone just kinda forgot that IBM's Watson, WITHOUT INTERNET CONNECTIVITY, Beat the World Record Jeopardy players in 2011. 13 YEARS AGO. In this AI mania, we're loosing our minds over what is EFFECTIVELY 15 year old technology here. Do you honestly believe ChatGPT has anything on even 2011's Watson, had it been connected to the internet? I graduated with a degree in AI (Comp Sci with AI focus) in 2016. I haven't seen a single thing intelligent about AI from the mainstream in the last 12 months. This video (and one or two others I've seen recently) is honestly one of the most intelligent perspectives on AI I've seen since this mania began. The masses (and companies marketing AI to the masses) are just INCREDIBLY inept when it comes to AI and what it actually IS, and where and how it's actually useful.

[@erwingomez1249]

interesting perspective. AI has so many angles right now in order to be approached , it's scary to think things could go really flat .

[@randomchannel-px6ho]

Around the time ChatGPT came out there were already widespread predictions that what we we're doing, essentially just feeding massive amounts of data into models to get optimized, was at a tipping point where results would start baring dramatically less fruit as we continued to add scale, and we're already starting to see it. From a hype perspective I can see as sort of similar to the internet which had a speculative investment bubble before it really caught on burst spectacularly, but now here we are today. I feel confident new methodologies will be developed which will further advance the technology. That being said I very much fear humanity pinning all of our hopes on AI assistance, we have gotten too good at pretending existential problems with our consumption driven society aren't there and this just feels like yet another excersize at ignoring that problem by hoping AI essentially becomes a god that fixes our problems magically

[@jaredf6205]

@@randomchannel-px6hoLLMs can only be so efficient. Even with these new Nvidia chips, I expect demand will drop off when we break into a new paradigm past LLM. There’s not really any more data to feed them, they need to use it better, I can’t imagine LLMs being the main “ai” tech in 4 years.

[@randomchannel-px6ho]

@jaredf6205 well, they're going to need to get data elsewhere than the internet now. It's polluted with artifical hallucinations already. Reality here is dead. High quality data may even be faked soon if not now! (Actually, scientists try to manufacture data all the time...) I don't trust it...

[@francofx]

As a long time follower, i never skip your videos! 👏🏼

[@roryoconnor4989]

It was great meeting you at pier 57

[@mancado22]

It is here to replace mid to low level office jobs like from HR to costumer care. To eventually replacing everyone but the top 1% most specialized workers. It is not coming for the benefit of the regular folks.

[@LtheMunichG]

Well someone also has to be the consumer. If everyone losses their jobs they can’t consume anymore which makes business a moot point u less it will be an AI economy where machines will sell to each other.

[@markm7411]

Totally agree this will just make everyone without a job, nothing good about, it’s just terrible, yeah I also agree probably 99% of population will loose there job, not sure if humanity will survive next 10 years

[@bendybruce]

I know this is a digression, But I am genuinely worried about what the future holds for creators. I've been working on my first science fiction novel for the last several years now and it is nearing completion. It genuinely does upset me to think that all my work could be assimilated byan LLM Literally within seconds, And then form part of its capacity to generate seemingly original and creative work. It is hard for me not to see this as a form of truly devastating plagiarism. Yet at the same time, I am not blind to the incredible potential of this technology, So good bad or ugly, LLM's are here to stay.

[@Flashclipped]

dude, people love humans making art, we don't give a dam about a robot making some crazy art.

[@Policecops100]

You sound like the dude who does the monologue at the end of Stand By Me

[@Sect10n31]

I don't own any pets, but google youtube AI ad placement drops pet food/care ads in videos I watch every day. 😂

[@swojnowski453]

because AI is smart and it knows you already. It will make you acquire one and then will sell you the food ;)

[@hughmyers8583]

I just haven't seen a use case for AI. Sure it can make some infringing art that sometimes has too many fingers and can't do hands or it can write a bad article that no one wants to read or it can draft a bogus legal pleading that will cost some attorney his job. It just seems like a solution in search of a problem

[@maynardburger]

If you mean pure, consumer use cases, then yea, AI is not gonna be any kind of revolution, at least not anytime soon. We do still use AI plenty without realizing it, like through our phone's image construction when taking photos, or having recommendation engines using our data to target us with ads and whatnot. Integration into like Excel or simply using ChatGPT for inspiration/getting a start on writing something - can be useful. So there's use cases. They're just not this 'paradigm changing' thing for the average person like it's being sold as. As the video goes into, it seems the biggest driver for the AI boom is likely gonna be recommendation engines(aka ads). There's other things it can do, though there's definitely far too much searching for a problem going on right now, as you point out. So no, AI isn't totally useless like crypto, but the mania surrounding it is still overblown.

[@johanngambolputty5351]

It used to be about the I, now its all about the A...

[@ELECTR0HERMIT]

Another excellent video, these are greatly appreciated.

[@TimeManInJail]

Was wondering when you would talk about this

[@katrinabryce]

$7tn is about 1/3 of the total US Dollars in circulation. That just isn't going to happen.

[@Tential1]

Oh sweet summer child. Didn't we print 40% of dollars in circulation just in the last few years? Lol... You think we aren't printing more.... Oh you're funny. You have no idea what's coming....

[@katrinabryce]

@@Tential1 If we print 100,000% more dollars, then $7tn might be in about the right ball-park for a really big investment. Except if we do that, you will be taking a wheelbarrow to the grocery store, and they would be looking for their investment money in Euros.

[@wizaaeed]

Sam altman is wild for thinking that computing some data & outputting it with a chat algo is worth that much

[@Godfrey544]

@@wizaaeed he thinks it'll create a digital super inteligence that'll allow people to become intergalactic in a short period of time. Tech bros are all getting high on their own tech-cult shrooms.

[@BeedrillYanyan]

​@@Tential1for someone with such a patronizing tone, you're pretty dumb.

[@o0oLukeo0o0o]

Is it really AI or just an algorithm that can scan through large data sets and condense the information into a brief summary?

[@martymarl4602]

You've describe just what our own brain does, so yes. We are just fleshy computers

[@lonestarvoid]

Bro just figured out how intelligence works

[@lekooz2301]

Do you think Einstein derived general relativity by memorizing it? How do you define intelligence?

[@Soosss]

@@lekooz2301Actually a good point, this is a problem facing current AI models, the question of “how do we let AI come up with new ideas?”, for now it’s extremely good and (99% of the time) better then humans at memorization and doing menial work (like going thru spreadsheets or fixing lines of code), but it’s another hurdle entirely to have an AI that can realize it’s wrong, and then approach a problem from a different angle (generating new ideas). Will this actually be achieved or not? No one really knows.

[@swojnowski453]

@@martymarl4602 a big difference is, we do it extremely cheaply while AI can eat all the energy we have and still ask for twice as much in a couple of years. You already paying for the progress in AI in your electricity bills. Have you noticed yet?

[@mukiex4413]

“The gist” :: Koseki Bijou has entered the chat ::

[@zerdofish9989]

Amazing content in your channel. How can you keep up?

[@brodriguez11000]

Maybe using AI? 🙂

[@FrancisFjordCupola]

I'm sure the boom is as real as any boom before ever. Just like the subsequent crash will be as real as every crash before. I hope we get some good products out of it that improve our quality of live. Rest will be the same as it ever was.

[@SedBuildsThings]

This is the most lukewarm iceberg lettuce ball of fluff words I've ever seen.

[@drhxa]

The value comes from boosting productivity of workers not from consumer spending. Direct consumer spending is a tiny fraction of AI and ML revenues. AI is mostly invisible yet in every industry just like software or electricity or databases. The stuff you see (consumer products presented as "AI") is the very tip of the iceberg

[@mistersir3020]

Increasing the productivity of workers in the end means workers are going to do even less work and be even more bored out or fill in more TPS reports on the new template (btw did you get the memo?)* * (see Office Space 1999 movie)

[@swojnowski453]

AI produces a lot of errors, companies will be responsible for. It is going to cost them an arm and a leg. Long run it is a loss making tech.

[@Torbintime]

​@@swojnowski453and human workers don't produce errors?

[@RawrxDev]

@@Torbintime Yeah but there are human errors, their easier to spot, for example with coding, I can understand the logic of a bug and why someone did the thing they did, but when I debug AI code, its literally the most random stuff and it takes me longer to catch when following the execution flow of the program because there's no "logic" to the error, it was a just a statistical guess gone wrong by the AI.

[@matthewjohnathanwarburton8342]

Well...that's the thing. My company actually started using different cover sheets...​@@mistersir3020

[@fallout560]

For the San Bruno shops, they are/were planning on tearing that mall (tanforan) down for office space. I doubt that's happening since commercial office took a hit

[@LackofFaithify]

It's far more jarring to see an open mall at this point lol

[@Asianometry]

Oh damn, I liked it a lot.

[@jvanrs4928]

Great work ! Any thoughts on Industrial use cases ?

[@roegoleg]

As mentioned in his video, AI that only makes the wealthy wealthier will continue the trend to leverage technology for greed. Yes, incentives must exist to drive and pay for research and development but ultimately the product should benefit all of society at a reasonable cost. But as the divide grows between the classes and public institutions continue to lose their ability (through deteriorating tax bases, political interference, dismantling regulations) to support core services that form the backbone of our towns/cities/countries, technology and advancement are only seen as a threat to jobs, your standard of living, your physical and mental health, and your privacy and freedom. The current focus of technology for corporate profit margins in manufacturing and digital marketing to promote consumerism will take us further down this path and to an uncertain future.

[@menjolno]

should have just said "im a communist" instead of making it seem like "AI is bad"

[@pabloagusti5104]

​@@menjolnoAh, binary thinking combined with the straw man fallacy.

[@menjolno]

@@pabloagusti5104 which strawman? Binary thinking is not a fallacy. According to the "correct thinking", if vandals are drinking alcohol, we must criminalize both alcohol and vandalism

[@menjolno]

@@pabloagusti5104 explain how communism would not solve all the "ai bad" problems. You might not be a communist,, but almost all the youtube users are. Whenever there is a problem, the communists alll become capitalist and fiercely attack "ai", "porn", "social media", "cheaters", "polygamy", "millenial work ethic", "laziness", "immigration", ect... as if there was no alternative to capitalism. Communism solves all the problems.

[@hieronymusbutts7349]

Chat GPT is just a hyper-detailed AOL chatbot with a couple filters in place. Show me when AI can process logic, and not just probabilistically arrange data by Markov chain, and I'll be impressed

[@bbuggediffy]

Your problem is. Llms doesn't need to be that impressive

[@MSpotatoes]

Exactly. These systems are only as smart as their creators and not nearly as impressive as "skynet is here!" That some seem to believe.

[@Halo6166]

@@MSpotatoes exponential growth will change that, and when it does many people like you will be shocked by the new world you didn’t see coming . That’s because humans are horrible at predicting the future when it comes to exponential curves

[@Slav4o911]

It can process logic, it's just heavily censored (dumbed down) for the regular people. The thing is... as Bard once said to me "I wouldn't do you work for you..." and it stopped "helping me". I mean corporations will never let the AI really help the "slaves", they just want to make money from us. They don't want to let the AI make money for us. (i.e. do our job for us, so we can relax and enjoy). The official reason is "safety", but the real reason is, corporations and the government no longer want to share power. If the Internet was to invented today and not at the end of the cold war, it would have been so heavily regulated, nobody would have had much benefit from it. Also unlike the past when there was some resistance to corporations, now people are mostly closed inside their shells, and there are no longer any people who really want to fight with the "status quo". People just became much more obedient. All AI regulations would be against regular people using the AI, not against corporations which will use the AI only for their own benefit. If the AI is not shared, if the AI is kept only by powerful people and corporations, I don't think humanity has any future. Most probably very soon AI will be heavily regulated for people, open models will probably be outlawed for "safety reasons". I don't think the AI will benefit everyone like the PCs or the Internet did. As I said before, everything will be done in the name of "safety". Imagine a North Korean style Internet, but for the usage of AI, that's what our future will be. They can't do anything about the Internet, but for the AI, it will be heavily regulated. The Internet was mostly free until very recent times, when some western countries started to block certain web sites... but still the Internet and also the usage of PCs is mostly open and free. Anybody can have Internet and PC... with AI it will not be like that. Open models will probably be banned or heavily regulated. Imagine if they wanted you to have a certificate just for having a PC at your home.

[@LackofFaithify]

@@Halo6166Say what? You gonna shake a magic stick and create electrical infrastructure too? Though of course there would need to actually be exponential growth in the first place. Maybe ChatGPT10 will be the thing that shatters reality.

[@AIWorld435]

Exactly what I needed.

[@x2ul725]

Great update ! Jobs that AI may create could be interesting to hear from your end... the fab and materials side ? How many min wage jobs appear inside a fab site ?? Chemical industry is regulated to prevent growth that hurts enviro in US, sounds like a lot of safety test jobs, like an oil refinery ? Thanks for everything !

[@johnswanson217]

I think LLM is a "nice" product to have, but not a "revolutionary" technology. Real revolution will happen in manufacturing and automation.

[@fusion9619]

I still haven't tried out chatgpt but if I could tell it to generate designs for something to print, I'd find that quite appealing.

[@markm7411]

All this ai makes me sick, the only reason is so companies can fire employees, and these companies can sell to all other companies but not one thinking how the world will be if no one haves a job anymore, and then all these big companies also make no money anymore Microsoft Apple they will also go bankrupt if no one buy there products anymore, creating the end of everything just some people can make a lot of money now

[@sgramstrup]

Time to ditch the unreasonably archaic ideology of Capitalism. It's not suited for the development stage we are in. Capitalism keeps us all down.

[@danremenyi1179]

Very informative. Thank you.

[@bebokRZly]

Excellent episode! 😊

[@3dz3dz]

the ai boom is ai generated, obviously

[@joseguerrero2221]

I work in the film industry and I saw the new OpenAI product launch, Sora. I immediately thought to myself, this is going to cut through so much of what we do. I could see it already, let's say you need have a scene that requires 100 background performers, normally you'd have to book those 100 performers, get them through hair, make up, wardrobe, find a space to house them in, feed them, travel them back and forth, etc. All these things that take up time and money. Now with Sora I can envision a world in which you only hire 25 background performers or whatever quota is needed according to the SAG contract, and fill the rest in with AI. All of a sudden you can cut down on performers, food, wardrobe, Assistant Directors, props, transportation, visual effects houses. You can literally cut right through all that stuff and make a set run faster. With less labor, less people hit overtime (which is insane in the film industry as we generally work 14-16 hour shifts). I'm not saying the technology is there yet, (I'm not even fully sure how sora works. Does it have an encyclopedic knowledge of all visual content ever made?) but I think that this technology will only get better and will become another tool in the film industry. It won't replace filmmaking, I don't think so. But moviemaking is about staging and making things appear real. Star Wars was a big leap forward in terms of making the impossible possible through practical effects. I believe AI will offer similar possibilities for studios and directors. Let's see where it all goes.

[@uk7769]

Too late. But don't worry Every human is in the same boat. One human and a scooter per data center. The rest won't be needed.

[@Flashclipped]

people love humans creating, not data.

[@maynardburger]

I actually dont mind use cases like this. I'd also like to see AI replace a large portion of the army of artists required to create assets for CGI and video games and whatnot. Train the AI on a certain art style and have it start spitting out models and maybe even have AI do more automated skeletal rigging and whatnot. I dont say all this cuz I'm cruel and want to see a bunch of people out of a job, but because the budgets for these things have gotten out of control, and having to hire armies of artists is a big reason why. If we can cut that down, we can make these industries more sustainable and allow smaller teams to accomplish more.

[@joseguerrero2221]

@@maynardburger I don't mind either, you have to lean into the future and adapt as technology emerges. I have an inside view of the film industry and I constantly see so much waste and inefficiency. And this sort of waste shows up in balance sheets and income statements. Looking at paramount or wb 10ks are gross.

[@andr386]

That's really refreshing.

[@canelonism]

love your work

[@Utoko]

Are we ignoring the fast advances in robotics with AI here?

[@Tential1]

Lol, I learned my lesson. I looked at Nvidia revenue growth since inception. They deliver 20% over 5 year periods, like clockwork. It's Insanity. It defies logic. And as an investor, my instinct is, it has to "normalize". 20 years later... It's gotten stronger. I gave up fighting Nvidia 5 years ago. It's easier just to accept, some people just are more successful than others. That's Nvidia... They deliver.

[@auoro]

The question posed is interesting. Although the advancement of robotics is significant, there is no product like the one mentioned in the video for the average consumer. All the advances, as noted in the video, seem destined to further enrich the wealthiest. Although there are many advances in artificial intelligence (AI), the video focuses on the rise of AI as a commercial product, and suggests that, while it is real, it is not as accessible as the PC or smartphone once were and are for ordinary people. It is unlikely that we will have a robot in our homes any time soon; specific products are currently aimed primarily at large companies. Although there are products like ChatGPT or Copilot that are promising, for now they are not that revolutionary as a product. At least is what i got from the video.

[@JL-pc2eh]

@@auoro"It is unlikely that we will have a robot in our homes any time soon [...]" Well robot vacuum and mop combos from iRobot, Roborock, Ecovacs, and more disagree xD There are MILLIONS of robots in the homes of consumers today ;)

[@JL-pc2eh]

Oh and object detection (using "AI") etc. is integrated in a lot of them - for example to avoid running over poop and spreading it all over the floor (if you have pets).

[@dewinmoonl]

I work on AI in industry as a research scientist. It is useful for our products, but it isn't as simple as what people make it out to be. real progress happens through a lot of tinkering and hard work, you don't get results for free.

[@ChuckNorris-lf6vo]

Thank you for bringing the facts, the business facts, the innovation, the vision.

[@ignisfatuus]

Everyone is worried about AI taking their jobs, but fail to see how it's going take their money, too. Not just ads. Scamming and extortion can't be too far behind.

[@mattm597]

AI (artificial intelligence) is DECADES away, if it's even possible at all. What is being called "AI" today is what used to be referred to as "computer technology," and it has not fundamentally changed in the last fifty years. It's the same old thing, just with a sexier name. This is why whenever a company starts boasting about its AI credentials, I instantly shy away from investing, because I know it's not really AI. It's BS. AI is a marketing term. In today's context, it's practically meaningless.

[@richard_d_bird]

well it's an interesting technology for sure. my assumption has been that there are likely practical applications beyond those celebrated "chatbot" things, but those aren't the applications that make a lot of headlines. i think it's largely been that way with computers in general for a long time. but if there's applications or not i expect i'll find out about that in due time. likely from people like you.

[@brodriguez11000]

Moore's law as a bedrock, but working smarter (as mentioned in a previous video) rather than brute-forcing one's way through (making NVIDIA more money).

[@Tential1]

Nvidia does 2-4 hour presentations on the application of ai... Everyone focuses on chatgpt because they refuse to watch lol.... Nvidia has been shouting ai for YEARS. they just couldn't find an application normies could understand. Image upscaling, like our of csi on TV, is far more insane to me, and Nvidia can do things like that. They have tons of models already done lol. They just need you to spend the $40k and soon to be 55k next year I'm sure, knowing Nvidia, per gpu, to run the models... But they're sold out of gpus... Lol. But people think this is just a bubble... Even though the models are there... And we just need more gpus to run them... Whatever.... I've got a f ton of money to invest. Free money for me. Another Tesla so soon. How nice.

[@pokepress]

It may be a case of, "it is all that and a bag of chips, but we don't know which flavor, or which size". As for use cases that don't get enough fanfare, upscaling has more immediate uses, but isn't controversial enough to grab attention, despite being of huge use to news organizations, documentary filmmakers, and the lost media scene, among others.

[@derantorkiarig4592]

"A technology enabling the rich to get richer, instead of creating a new class of people." Bingo. That's exactly what it is. The funny thing is that at this rate, firms will simply run out of consumers to sell to. If vast swathes of people are made redundant with AI, while there's really creation of new jobs (like there was with computers or the industrial revolution), then, well, who's gonna spend the money they no longer earn on the products nobody needs?

[@ekwem]

2:36 Gist of pronounced like ‘gee’. Jist.

[@Hacktheplanet_]

Yeah if I wasn't cringing enough at the painfully slow pace and logic then he did this. .. absolutely stealing people's time with this one 😂

[@AdvantestInc]

Fantastic job shedding light on Nvidia's strategic moves and the broader AI chip competition. Keep the insights coming!

[@LukeAvedon]

Arnold tried to warn us 33 years ago.

[@ethan_]

This channel is amazing

[@user-kn5sk1xr4j]

I'm sorry but this is the most underrated channel I have ever seen.

[@henrylim4662]

Thank you for your insightful video

[@PplsChampion]

that dwarkesh article is great

[@shantanusapru]

Kindly add URLs/links to your resources/sources/references in the description.

[@Fanaro]

12:40 Surely that's what we needed, more ads.

[@fg786]

1:41 Makes sense considering a fab is in the billions to build from the ground up. A billion here, a billion there, at the end some money is involved...

[@williams6206]

I would love to see you make a video about super micro.

[@parksto]

Thank you !

[@Dezomm]

If nothing else, this is a very interesting time to be part of the tech industry. Certainly not boring times ahead!

[@xybnedasdd2930]

I especially like your comment at the end, about the effect it has on the distribution of wealth. I, too, do not see this as a new tech enabling a new group of people to "rise up", but instead to empower incumbents and capital. Compare this to the mobile apps boom 10+ years ago and it is clear just how different the landscape is. Sure, anyone can make a wrapper around these techs, but it will be very hard to differentiate and make big bucks on it, unless you actually have a team and money to make it significantly better (hence not just using a wrapper) and larger. I've seen some loud voices from some lucky tech bros who got in early and reaped big bucks on AI wrapper services but definitely it seems like a game of luck and money more than ingenuity and hard work.

[@TheMadridfan1]

lol. Quite a perspective you have built there! Only missing the obvious.

[@epickh64]

A video with the engineers from ASML would be interesting, or something about the industry in other European countries, like the German "Mittelstand"; companies like Cherry with their < 500 employees or Sennheiser with their like 3000 people who export to the whole world.

[@andytroo]

advertising is also a bit of a 0 sum game. I have a finite amount of money. if advertising convinces me to buy something, then that is less money i have to spend elsewhere, except for the once-off effect of having a lower bank/savings balance, adverting isn't a net gain on society, it just pulls me towards those who shout the loudest / best.