Is The Credit Crunch Here? | Peter Boockvar

[@pauldevos3828]

Thank you Peter and Adam for bringing him on! Loved the live format.

[@mattanderson6672]

Brilliant interview, fantastic guest as always. Thank you for having Peter on Thanks guys!!

[@chrisgingerich9786]

Thanks Peter for coming on . We need more people like you coming on to this channel . Hopefully we'll see again sometime here.

[@Oilfieldscout]

Adam, you are getting better and better. This channel is definitely NOT an echo chamber.

[@winstonsmith6204]

Wealthion is phenomenal

[@gresleymccaslin5948]

Really succinct analysis…….so well explained…if anybody has any doubt what is coming,just watch it again…this is a clear a message as it gets….even if we have to look into the crystal ball……its the facts inside the ball that show up clear……this is economics-plus at 101 level..thanks guys…brilliant.!

[@byronsmith6600]

Another great interview, Adam! You are doing a great service for the investment community.

[@Sneezyridr]

Always appreciate Peter’s insight and analysis.

[@asimakbari]

I’m

[@Badger345]

Another great interview with great information, I like the live stream format

[@JJS73]

Personally, my family has the money but we’re on strike with eating out. The costs are out of control and not a great way to spend money when we can make a great meal at home for a lot less.

[@countrysister700]

Agreed. But we're still supporting locally owned restaurants. The overbuilt, under-quality chains will have to go this on their own at least where my spending is concerned.

[@johnprosser4822]

​@@countrysister700🎉❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉😂😂😂❤🎉🎉🎉😂😂❤😂😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮❤❤😂🎉🎉🎉🎉❤❤🎉🎉

[@jerseyguy8143]

Love the life interaction. Please do it again and provide a programming notice for all interested to attend and provide input !! Thank you Peter Boockvar .......! I would have like to hear his thoughts on possible "Deflation" vs current "Inflation" ?????

[@LetsTalkTorah]

Impressive interview. Thank you - both! I find Peter’s approach to be a helpful input, and I’m going to add him to my short list of ~10-12 economy/financial professionals that I keep up with closely to decide how to adjust my strategies from month to month.

[@bhlibertybhliberty3403]

I like his take on where this cycle is going ... a grinding down! Or just grinding slowly! As opposed to slow or hard! This makes most sense to me.

[@henrygoode4653]

When you got that phone call you missed the perfect opportunity to say, “that’s my travel agent calling me.” Would have been classic. Anyway, great show

[@marcfd3756]

Great interview and analysis of the state of the residential and commercial real estate markets. Thanks!

[@carlimalmarkfitness9918]

Love the open question format!

[@mrsterling5306]

GREAT SHOW Adam! Thank You

[@KarlJonsson-dn7iw]

Original angle to see the dynamic of liquidity pression in mortgage and debts in general. Mr Peter Boockvar might come back to talk more of Asian markets. Thank you sir.

[@MrDamnTheManSaveTheEmpire]

really liked the answer we didnt really want to hear about real estate. It was thoughtful and practical

[@kingoflight3429]

Good format 🎉

[@dianedean4170]

Adam and Peter, thank you so much for posting your observations of how liquidity flows through events and timelines. 🎉🎉 I really appreciate how Adam's guests have well-grounded experience and that reality of reading the markets clearly is very helpful in preparing for the future. 😊

[@scottwilliamson1606]

Thank you gentlemen!! Great stuff as usual!

[@priscillasilverhouse3]

Great interview! Thank you. I like the live interview.

[@fredcroft7517]

Like the live format - and always appreciate Peter's analyses.

[@Studeb]

Glad he mentioned Swedish housing market being more vulnerable than the US one there at the end, that is exactly what I want to hear.

[@ShamileII]

Great discussion! Peter is always a wealth of information. Loved the flow of liquidity analysis.

[@Diogenes515]

Great interview, thank you. Adam, you ask whether viewers prefer the live format to your standard interviews. For myself, no - I like the standard format better.

[@maurasmith-mitsky762]

Thanks, Adam and Peter. Learned much.

[@stuartm8720]

Brilliant interview. Really good analysis and discussion.

[@marksullivan2147]

Adam, I can tell you that my wife and I pay much greater tips to traditional service workers ie waiters, delivery, than before the pandemic. The reason is because we want to incentivize these workers to continue their service. I’m reminded of when the Covid restrictions began to ease, but long lines and slow service was rampant due to low staffing.

[@stevensmith8580]

Live format works for me. Thanks Peter!

[@jacobmurray2894]

Great conversation! Very insightful- thanks!!

[@jonathanmarsh9752]

Like the live format more!

[@howardglenmartinez4473]

Adam Taggart is truly our "Brother's Keeper," when it comes to protecting our financial assets.

[@aguywhohikes1271]

Adam - Thank you. Nothing more needs to be said.

[@Nicehousecrappycar]

Adam, live Wealthion discussions are great. They must present challenges at your end. Mindful of that, I would defer to you and your guests on whether to regularize them.

[@JohnDaniels]

Because of Adam's tutorial video, I took almost all of my money out of the bank and put it in Treasury bills and make quite a bit of money so far. But this last time I did it I did it for 2 months and then we had that debt ceiling standoff and I thought oh crap not got my money tied up in these T bills and they're going to default, LoL but anyway, yes you're right. People are bypassing these criminal institutions called banks and going straight to the treasury, the other big criminal institution😂

[@brucerobtoy2888]

You say you Took all of your money out of the bank and put it in treasury bills, How long Did it take for you To make a lot of money off of that strategy.? I'm just very curious how you did it .

[@heinzbucksandcastle2053]

Great discussion

[@edk808]

Great information and presentation

[@katedixon7737]

Great interview!

[@charlesoleary3066]

Very good, enjoyed that,thanks

[@udostevens6789]

Great interview and alot of information. Thank you

[@libo6368]

Great interview

[@standinginthegap7118]

I'm a Licensed Massage Therapist and people are beating down the doors of the spa. They all tell me it's because they feel so stressed.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Fundamentally, when the Fed manipulates interest rates they distort every other price in the economy and encourage widespread misallocation of resources. To do this for 20+ years was truly insane.

[@Logicalromulan]

Exactly. They should have to pay consequences for their actions. Currently there is no price bernake, Greenspan, or Powell have paid.

[@jctr4559]

I could be wrong but I think most people are interested in real estate. We all live in it.

[@williammathis6044]

Great interview. One point of feedback. Please try to limit interrupting your guests. It can come off somewhat disrespectful to the listener.

[@Userhfdryjjgddf]

I see there's 1 like. Did you like your own comment??? Adam is awesome and those interruptions are needed to help either keep a guest from getting too far ahead than we can process. Also Adam help put things into co text that normal humans can understand what was just said. I vote that your comment was unwarranted.

[@davidmcintee6812]

To counter the 'people trapped in their homes' argument for house prices staying elevated, there will be homeowners who will be selling who don't have to buy another home. Examples: Aging baby-boomers selling primary residences moving to assisted living; Airbnb owners selling out; people selling second homes.

[@tonylochner4730]

Now that is funny Adam!!! Blowback from family wearing googles at dinner!!!🤪

[@ariatrish917]

Thanks again for this interview with Peter. Appreciate if you could share your thoughts on housing recession. Drop in home sales and a resilient home price index are contradicting factors to define housing recession. Although affordability is one of the major challenges, the home prices have risen YTD.

[@countrysister700]

Rising prices indicate desperate buyers and the amount of cash still in the housing market. Blue state departures, boomer retirement, Great Generation inheritances, investment uncertainty are all propping up the prices encouraging buyers to keep shoving funds in the residential bucket. If these cash or near cash buyers left the market to normal forces of price and interest rates, prices would drop like a rock.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

The housing folly was apparent back in 2003-5 when Greenspan recapitalized the housing market everywhere with subsidized interest rates. Now it has to be recapitalized at higher rates, which means prices are unsupportable based on debt leverage. They turned the housing market into a bond market. Insane.

[@Logicalromulan]

The destruction of this country in recent memory started with that criminal Greenspan and every subsequent fed official.

[@jamcaseproductions8307]

Thanks mate

[@drajdew1664]

We need to go higher for longer . Home prices are still too high.

[@edyochum6916]

This was excellent you should have him on more often. I'd be curious on his thoughts after the sinkhole starts to eat cars...during the period of car eating, and then the recovery and do we fill it in or just find another road?

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Without a crash in asset markets, the correction to asset bubbles will take years as inflation eats away debt service and real prices decline.

[@georgetoth6768]

Live Peter is good to go.

[@glockgopop]

The Fed can't continue the QT when the treasury isn't offsetting. When the lag of these rate hikes sets in they will have to choose inflation or severe recession. I don't agree at all that rates back to zero and QE will be off the table for long. Once you start MMT you either continue it or blow up the economy. Alf and Lynn understand this best imo

[@michaels4255]

QE is not MMT. QE does not determine the circulating money supply. M2 rose in 2020 (because of Congress, not the Fed or QE), and prices started rising in 2021. Now M2 is falling although not as sharply (because the banks have been lending less). You do the math.

[@glockgopop]

@@michaels4255 Yes it is and yes it does. MMTs core tenant is currency debasement. Central planners adding 40% additional money to the supply, as was done recently, is absolutely an MMT strategy. Fiscal spending is monetized by the Fed. Had the Fed told congress no it wouldn't have happened. M2 has been falling because the Fed is going through a QT cycle. Suggesting the Fed has no control on M2 is lunacy.

[@coffeecupman]

High school is NOT over, for one reason - and that is the national debt. The gov't is not suddenly going to pay unsustainable interest rates on their debt, crashing asset prices, which crushes tax receipts, also making them more unable to carry it. The govt is painted into a corner on ZIRP, and to some degree also, on the fed put. But they will make us feel some pain first, because prices ARE irresponsible right now.

[@utpharmboy2006]

politicians aren't going to stop spending. we can't service debt at anything above 0%.

[@ask_why000]

"... if the train jumps the tracks..."

[@sunzeneise]

More Boockvar!

[@JohnDaniels]

Don't be sorry, we love high rates 👍🏻

[@ask_why000]

❤❤❤❤❤

[@rollingthunder6406]

@Wealthion 1. Adam you looked distracted at the start it distracted me a bit. 2. I think you had a family emergency and I hope everyone is ok and think you did a great job interviewing, especially if you had other things on your mind. 3. Revenge Travel is a good term. 4. Peter is a good guest, he seemed a bit distracted himself but was still an enjoyable watch. I believe Peter is an underrated guest he is someone I might look up to see other interviews he has done where most people you won't.

[@rollingthunder6406]

BTW, The live format is good. You will get practice and get better, like turning off your phone, but if you have a family emergency you get a mulligan. It wasn't that big a deal I wouldn't of even told the viewers, and when distracted cut to full screen of Peter. Its all good though I am being picky, though. I like the recaps on what people say because sometimes guests need a clarification or summarization to make sure the viewers are following along correctly. This channel is great at this.

[@one4change4thebetter]

Predictions are difficult especially about the future... But we can't help making them.

[@dianarabbanii2]

Heard someone say the best season for a fin.ancial breakthrough is now, especially with inflation running high. I have approximately $250k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?

[@charliegray6895]

We 1,P​@KangMinsu122

[@robertrosener5643]

Did Adam just say 34 to 36 Dollars for a BLT Sandwich? What is it on Gold Leaf Bread. I just got a BLT in the supermarket for $ 5.99!

[@Wealthion]

Sadly, I did say $34-36 for a single BLT sandwich. Here's the tweet: twitter.com/menlobear/status/1665899856685334528

[@agwillie2790]

The last question concerning housing, I’m curious if the cost of financing will prompt the Blackstones of the world to sell off a portion of their massive holdings in residential real estate and what that may trigger.

[@edwardk4198]

Sounds like inflationary pressures will not be abated if no new construction. Also with increased rates will real estate-related construction not require higher returns to refinance? Overall seems like inflation likely to be "sticky" for years.

[@SwissMovement]

Adam, a lot of your other guests said fed will cut to zero. This gentleman is saying “May be they’ll cut to 4”. How do we reconcile this big difference in opinions?

[@Wealthion]

That many experts have differences of opinion when looking at the same data. After all, that's what makes a market. My job is to make each guest's outlook & rationale for it as transparent as possible. Your job is to determine whose argument you find most convincing to you.

[@sheilahaley7470]

L

[@davisutton1]

I usually find something to like in most guests but I can't say I really heard anything but "if the asset markets fall, we'll have a severe recession." This is kind of the question most people are looking for "Will asset markets fall and fall heavily."

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Yes, inflation will likely hover around 4%, which means a nominal interest rate of 2-3% real + 4% inflation = 6-7%. Rates have to stay high unless there is credit crunch and a sharp, deep recession.

[@joemccarthy7120]

If negative real rates are bad, how then is it bad to quickly take us out of that bad policy situation? The fact is, rates are still remarkably low.

[@noonebeer]

You shouldn't knock a product category like VR AR before you actually try it. It's the future. Keep in mind, the first iPhone was continually panned for both good and bad reasons. The price point is easier to understand once you realize that this new device will eventually replace both laptops and smart phones.

[@Tential1]

49:00 this doesn't need to be mass. Market.... But it will be. If you know anything about technology, it's obvious. They literally explained how it will be mainstream. It's right there in the parts breakdown, all around the m2 chip. If you've seen reactions from even normies, it's magical. If you remotely understand the tech, foveated rendering is why this is possible. With the eye tracking apple has implemented, it's actually not computationally expensive to do what they're doing. Its powered by m2... A pretty basic apple chip. Not even a high end one. You'll say this now, but when you try it you'll change your mind. Apple executed well here. This was essentially perfection. And I own zero apple products right now. But this, I can't think of a single way to upgrade the product. They used every tech perfectly. You could add dlss, but I don't even think you need to with foveated rendering.

[@lawyer1165]

As Wolf Richter has mentioned, the homeowners who are “trapped” by a low-rate mortgage are both non-sellers and non-buyers. Thus, for the most part, their inactivity cancels out. In my opinion, we need a recession to motivate selling by the owners of empty houses and Airbnb houses.

[@auntiefiat9769]

Michael Pento always says he watches the credit markets closely...they are his canary in the coal mine.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

The thing with housing is, there's something like 30-50% fewer transactions going on right now than what the economy got used to, right?. Well, at least here in Southern California, so many of the people doing well and bidding up the cost of rent/houses/cars/everything in the last few years WERE real estate professionals themselves (or at least people in a profession that leans on real estate transactions to a great degree). So, how are those people not taking a 30% hit to their income right now? With almost everyone living a "maxxed out" lifestyle, as we know Americans do, how does a 30% income hit NOT result in evictions and foreclosures very soon? The way I see it, barring the Government meddling, as we know they are already doing and will continue to meddle, house prices will be coming down from forced sales, and those forced sales will be driven BY the economic drain of the real estate slowdown itself. If residential real estate was a self-reinforcing spiral on the way up, how can it not work the same way in reverse? Again, without the Government intervening, it would be a fairly predictable math equation in my mind (and as Adam often says). And then there are the builders, who will slowly but surely continue to build themselves into oblivion, if History is any guide. P.S. I am not a sidelined buyer, I am just waiting to see if math and reason ever matter to markets again, and possibly invest if they ever do.

[@Logicalromulan]

You are right but criminal govt will always intervene

[@Sandwichking-hikes]

Stepping back a ways 5% rates are still low rates. The fed has taken enough action to slow drag down economy and reduce inflation some. However not enough action to get inflation under control. They may be stuck long term keeping rates elevated

[@MAMP]

Interesting premise. I like this. Yes if the real CPI were accurately reading out 10 or 12% it might make some of what we're seeing more intuitive. Maybe the inflation is just flat out overwhelming the rates.

[@1ireneaustin]

my question is "why does the inflation index exclude food and energy when that is what is the main driver of inflation? I guess I answered my own question.

[@jasona5806]

Any business that waited for their loan to mature this year and didn’t do anything about it last year deserves to get wiped out

[@DomDocuments]

"Housing in a recession" .... meanwhile, Home Builder stocks surpassing ALL TIME HIGHS. Will there ever come a time where you and your guests are correct? I don't think so.

[@criticalcrossroads498]

He had Tom Lee on last year and he predicted the markets would be up 20% this year. As expected, the commenters crucified him…but it looks like he was correct.

[@DomDocuments]

@@criticalcrossroads498 When has Tom Lee ever not been bullish? Man, what a lame comment. Tom Lee is a "perma bull" always. Everybody knows that about him.

[@criticalcrossroads498]

​@@DomDocuments What are you talking about? He was bearish about 2022 at the end of 2021.

[@LumpsIsHigh]

I think Peter is a very smart dude, but It's always bizarre how these guys seem to think that the people that are participating in investments/money market accounts are the SAME people that have student loans or whatever else the subject is. The reality is that the people that already had money are the ones benefiting from money market accounts yield. It isn't the ones that are struggling to make student loan payments or even the people trying to pay rent. $5 trillion in money market accounts isn't owned by all the student loan borrowers. He kind of brushed that aside as though that $5 trillion was SOLELY owned by student loan borrowers....

[@samuelspade889]

Did he say, 36 dollars American for a BLT? That seems a tad expensive, do you get a cocktail with that nosh?

[@youngone1985]

We are already over supplied in housing when investors fire sell.

[@drajdew1664]

Rates are up it means prices need to go down If not going down then it means we need more higher rates Its pretty simple

[@jameslee-dp6cb]

The quickest way to fail in the economy is to pass the price of debt to the poor. For it is written in the book f Isaiah "whosoever shall oppress the poor, God shall smite him". The older generation knew this and avoided doing so,

[@lo1234-w9r]

Not a lot of options for investment right now, I completely understand why investors are sitting tight. Sell stock, pay capital gains and you need to reinvest the cash. Real estate is stupid over priced, treasury's only pay a few percent, and metals aren't really an 'investment'.

[@dillonsawyer9377]

You can get a 10yr mortgage in Canada

[@cathyP1961]

😅 I can cook BLT’s all week for $45

[@timclark2925]

I hadn't thought about the fact that home prices have not come down because people are trapped in their homes because rates have risen so quickly.....interesting....I was wondering why home prices have not collapsed....but that makes sense now....

[@911jak]

The long term effect of Covid changed our business habits. We can work from home. We no longer need to transfer staff to a different location to be effective. Remember when IBM stood for “I’ve been moved”. So the turnover of homes has slowed down. Remember when you got transferred corporations would buy your home if not sold.

[@aerovespr]

16:13 "Destroyative" impacts?? 🤡

[@truffleturkey7]

We’re in a recession. Changing a definition doesn’t change the facts.

[@Tential1]

40:00 ai ha been around since the 1950s, you're technically correct. It's like saying Tesla wasn't disruptive because wheels have been around since forever. And technically, you're wrong, even on that part about ai. The point is, we've never had this speed of ai. And because you guys don't use Nvidia products, you don't get it. Nvidia progress on compute is not Intel level. It changes how things are done every 8 years. We don't even have full dedicated ai hardware out there in the wild yet.... You're saying ai is hype, when people just bought the stuff... They didn't even implement it yet. Intel, amd, and IBM all have additional. Dedicated ai hardware coming out. This will change things drastically. No one had dedicated, good, hardware until recently, and you're acting like ai is hype, when we are barely seeing the first iterations.

[@juancatalan9132]

Lets face it once you have to say goodbye its forever We die Thats it We Don’t exist anymore only in our memory

[@daveforgot127]

NVDA HAS OVER STATED THEIR GUIDENCE AS THEY HAVE DONE BEFORE.

[@tonylochner4730]

Sorry but don't think too good an interview. Yes stagflation but Peter you said reduce DEBT. How is the GOV ever going to even balance the budget, no less reduce DEBT???????????????????????? And yes, I Agree NEVER going back to 0 if FED has any sense at all!!

[@peggyharris3815]

" ...If fed has any sense at all." Well Tony...you pretty much guaranteed that the near future has 0 interest rate to come. 😅

[@evegreenification]

Aw nuts. I peaked in HS. Going back is my only hope

[@sunzeneise]

We’re going back to “detention” after being schooled by real life.

[@CarlosTLopez-pi9mj]

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[@nwpete]

Home prices won't fall to "fully" mitigate the doubling of mortgage rates. That pretty much says he has no idea. We all know they won't fall 50%.

[@utpharmboy2006]

nothing against peter but he made absolutely no bold predictions, which is fine, but seems like he very carefully said that everything and nothing will happen.

[@adc9270]

When builders run out of work, they will offer a better product. Tiny homes. Two beds. One and a half bath. Done.