Is the Philippines Condo Crash Near?

[@axizcorp]

Who are panicking? 😂 Average Filipinos don't care what happens to corrupt greedy corporations 😂

[@RustyCardboard]

true, average Filipinos will not care cause it can't afford condo.

[@mjfab74]

yeah rich people problem, probably wouldnt even feel it....probably the one spreading rumors so they could aquire more default assets.

[@iwantobelieve]

well, if our economy crashes then it's us the masses will suffer greatly, not the real estate developers or the rich, so you should start to care.

[@aboveitall9600]

@@iwantobelieveYou think the average person cares about pretty much anything outside of what directly impacts them? Trash, roads, sanitation….minute expats start to point fingers at shady practices or pure exploitation…we are simply told to go home. People aren’t interested in fixing things. They have no buy in…

[@BobVanDusen]

Right on point @iwantobelieve! So many folks want to "play checkers" when life is actually a "chess game." Economics is never as simple as people believe it to be. Mergim Vlogs did a good job of attempting to explain for those that watched thru to the 8 min mark.

[@ozzymick1431]

As a foreigner not allowed to own land, condos are my only option. But why would I want to BUY, and lock myself into a specific location when I can hop around the Philippines and "Rent as I go".

[@lornaismael6212]

As a Filipino, I suggest to never buy a condo unit here in PH. It's overprice, very tiny, have ugly design, and very hard to resell. There's tons of hidden fees as well.

[@Gregory-Masovutch]

@@ozzymick1431 You can have control if you set up a Philippine Corporation, become a member of the corporation and have the corporation lease it back to you for 25 years with an option of renewal. Talk to a real estate attorney. Put the original certificate of title from register of deeds in your safe deposit box in your home country too. Condos aren’t a good option.

[@ozzymick1431]

@Gregory-Masovutch Wow! You really know your stuff. Thanks for the heads up but I'm a retiree in my 70s. Happy living in a provincial town in Laguna Province with my 60yo Filipina partner (no flussy, but lovely lady). Had my ups and downs financially in Australia but happy to rent a 2 brm apartment for 6,000php per month, almost as much as my WEEKLY rent for a tiny room in a share house in Aust. I fly home every 6 months for medical check ups and family reunions. So all good 👍.

[@corazonnavarro-j6l]

Guess what those developers anticipated the influx of POGOS Mostly Chinese😂... So what now since PH govt had pushed their total ban ... So why not the government let non Chinese foreigners buy /own those influx of condos if that can help the economy... Really happy those POGOs totally dismantled in our system we can do better...

[@segarnyagold1014]

@@lornaismael6212thanks for the tip.

[@Nikitateagurl_77]

Its already happening. Philippine condos are way overpriced and many are in bad shape or poor quality.

[@ArnieBae]

tru❤

[@MarieChristine95]

True! I’ve stayed in several overpriced condos (via Air BnB), some were only 2 years old, but the paints were already peeling, tiles lifting, etc. Nowadays, I prefer to stay in hotels, where you can actually call staff if needed.

[@randomly_random_0]

due to Chinese workers

[@Phil4me-p1i]

What I noticed/learned while renting a condo for a month in BGC. The 33rd floor I was on in this 3 year old condominium was a ghost town. I would go days not seeing anyone on the entire floor. There would a handful of people in the lobby of the building on Friday night, but still very few people and maybe one family on my entire floor besides me on a weekend. I would speak to the man who was in charge of building short term rentals (day/week). One day I asked him what the deal was not seeing anyone on my floor. He told me people bought on speculation and things have been over built/sold. He told me a year lease 3 years ago was going for a 1,000Php peso a sqm (45 sqm equaled 45K per month). Today, if the buyer/speculator can find someone, it's at between 800-900 per sqm or 36K-40.5k p/m on an annual lease. The short term rental manager further told me the buyers of the units had to refurbish at 3 years because of the initial poor quality. I jokingly said to the man 'So you wouldn't recommend buying a unit'. He replied not unless you want sakit ng ulo (a headache).

[@brentdollar2857]

Mostly foreigners are now heading to MALAYSIA, THAILAND and VIETNAM. They are too friendly and cheaper to live in. Businessmen in the Philippines are so GREEDY.

[@halfunkbass2966]

I bought a foreclosure bank owned condo in the Philippines and paid 1.2 million php for originally 5.3 million price.

[@Ghekko-kw3zz]

Years ago. Most of Ayala groups units revert to Ayala ownership in default, necessary to maintain 60% Filipino ownership.

[@GregorySloanCLUChFC]

@@Ghekko-kw3zz So why would an outsider buy? Makes no sense at all.

[@ThinkingJames]

Kahit 500k I would not buy a condo. Ang mahal ng Dues at taxes. Triny ko matulog sa isang unit sa airbnb last Christmas eve to see whats happening, jusko parang ghost town bihira ang tao considering dikit sa Venice Grand Canal Mall.. sa gabi bihira ang units ang may ilaw sa katapat na towers. Promise Ghost town feels tlga. Yung ginamit naming unit halatang not used for a very long time. Majority pa ng tao nakikita ko is halatang nag Airbnb lang din dahil Christmas season lang. Also, hindi ko na ulitin mag checkin dun ang mahal ng parking 600 overnight. Pero pag hotel free. Wala akong makitang bahid ng opportunity tlga..

[@jhunocampo4310]

@@ThinkingJames Developers built condos just to be occupied by "ghosts". Too expensive to buy as well as rents are sky high.

[@olboe2008]

where did you found your condo?

[@dcmorales]

Spot on! This is just real talk instead of those so-called economists that are downplaying the market since they have their own self-interests in keeping the prices high. A correction needs to happen as the middle class cannot afford a home anymore. Remote work needs to be reinforced as well to keep healthy levels in the real estate market.

[@Justiceseeker_55]

The philippines is now at the top 3 in asean in terms of economic growth and development. Kindly deepen your searches more so you can have the correct data and information regarding the country’s economy. These data are available on line and on govt channels such as ptv 4 and rtvm and on bbm’s instagram, you tube and fb accounts. Finally, fyi..,middle class in the Philippines is very strong. They are the target buyers of these condo units other than the ofws and balikbayans or returning ofws. These developers are not stupid to put their investment on projects which they have not studied beforehand. Btw.. middle class here are those who have houses in private villages and buy condos for investment and for their extended families. They earn at least 100k up to 250k pesos a month and are executives in their companies and those who own small and medium sized businesses are also included in that category. You may think thst those people who have sari sri stores and fish / meat vendors in the local markets and in tondo manila are poor but hell, no. You would be surprised to find thise small store owners are better off than you and have millions of savings but do not flaunt their wealth because they are contented with simple living but spend their money wisely

[@rmondave]

Very true the oligarchs have no talent other than jacking up prices and/or shortchanging buyers with cheaper materials and labor, and unfinished amenities, etc.

[@CharlesRicoGo]

Lee-Chiu. hahahaha

[@Krishny]

If we look deeper into why property prices in the Philippines, not just condos but also land, are continuously rising, it’s partly due to limited supply and the country’s growing debt. During the Aquino administration, the national debt was around ₱7 trillion. By the end of Duterte’s term, it had doubled to ₱14 trillion, resulting in more money circulating, particularly among the top 3% of the population. A portion of this excess liquidity is being allocated to real estate. For example, Manila Golf memberships now cost around ₱180 million, and properties in Forbes and Dasmariñas Villages are valued in the billions. This reflects how much wealth is concentrated among the ultra-rich. For most Filipinos, areas like Makati, BGC, and Ortigas are increasingly exclusive, catering to the wealthy. If you look at data from developers, most buyers are not even taking loans-only about 5% do, showing how much excess liquidity this top segment has in their accounts.

[@amleth9047]

Selling Price is rediculously high. Average Filipino earners cannot even afford a nipa hut.

[@pizzaearthpancakesandother2549]

Can they afford Pizza Hut?

[@1949cr]

Buyers are all overseas workers. Try and keep up.

[@abepenamante5577]

​@@1949cr Bad news-even OFWs are being hit hard by inflation and sky-high Col anywhere in the world, making investing in our own land difficult and almost nonsensical

[@jimle22]

@@pizzaearthpancakesandother2549 No we usually eat at Shakeys or Greenwich.

[@Mega-zi7ys]

@@abepenamante5577 so , there are only local workers and ofw's? Where do u put the business and land owning classes in the Philippines?

[@MRwaterlicious]

I agree with you 1000% I first noticed the greed after visiting mctan Island in 2023. I've been into real estate for over 30yrs and I was blown away at the prices there in cebu. The infrastructure is below the average living standards. Sure the condo buildings are nice but it's like parking a new Bently in a salvage yard of junk cars. Once you're outside the confines of the gated compound it's like wtf? The greed for foreign dollars have cast a sense of delusional ideas in the minds of the greedy developers who believe it ok to overcharge for the condos. I called this coming crash in 2023. It's impossible for this to sustain.

[@Gregory-Masovutch]

@@MRwaterlicious Also look straight down the window of many of these condominiums beachside or in the provinces and what do you see? Shack housing, slum living, roosters and old tricycle’s and poor folks struggling right next to your condo. I remember seeing this in Engano Lapu Lapu. Look out the window but not straight down. The same thing with Megaworld Festival Walk Condominiums in Iloilo.

[@jonb8371]

I stayed at a newer highrise on Mactan in 23 also, not that great. No way would I buy a condo anywhere in the phils.

[@imeldageneroso8369]

CONDOS are toooo expensive in the Philippines. Oversupply true. And even OFW's cannot afford it and foreigners too. OVERPRICING, different taxes etc etc, association dues. Problem with the structure, problem with the electric bills. Its not only CONDOs even houses and lots, unbelievable prices. Who can afford it? Perhaps mostly corrupt people who don't earned their money by hardworks, druglords etc... we don't know??

[@sfrealestatedealmaker6001]

Google search “Ponzi Scheme”. This is what’s currently happening in the Philippines.

[@ninojanjeremygo463]

Yep, foreigners said Malaysia and Thailand are cheaper and still have bigger space/room, while having better public transportation. They said our condominiums are overpriced because of POGO, they pay high, no more POGO, now it's oversupply.

[@Ghekko-kw3zz]

OFW is a scam.

[@ScoreGuru123]

Rent, rent, rent. Owning a condo in the Philippines is folly

[@esperanzacorazon9686]

THEY WERE NOT made for tghe average filipinos. the ordinary filipinos were the farthest from their greedy greedy minds. those condos were made for the POGO's. so sorry.

[@paulharwood6864]

Buy low on the crash is not a great idea because the over supply is so great the correction will take decades. Just look at China and see what's happening there. Another problem that no one considers is maintenance. These blocks will need internal and external maintenance in 10-15 years time. A lot people wont or cannot afford to pay for it which will mean nothing will get done and if people do pay into a monthly maintenance budget there is a high chance someone will nick it before it gets used. If the owners aren't allowed to manage the tender process if the work goes out to tender then they will get absolutely shafted.

[@Ghekko-kw3zz]

A few things you're not getting about the Philippines. One is these developers are insanely rich, far more liquid than the government. Another is it's not a normal RE market by any stretch. Vendor finance on low deposits is standard practice. The default terms are written into the purchase contracts, there won't be any foreclosure auctions. Another is "OFW" is a specific program where the wages are way below lawful minimum wages in countries with normal trade laws. (They aren't buying any BGC condos).

[@billevans3262]

Exactly this is not California,these developers have way deep pockets the only deal is a foreigner fire sale

[@1776dougie]

if OFWs aren't buying condos, foreigners aren't buying them, regular Filipinos arent buying them, whos buying then?

[@Ghekko-kw3zz]

@1776dougie migrant Filipino investors mainly (NOT OFW program)

[@abepenamante5577]

​@@1776dougie No one is actually buying these. The corporations are just squeezing every ounce they can from anyone daring enough to try. It’s a bit of a scam, honestly. Lmao

[@jaymsjags06]

@@1776dougie it is a way rich politicians/drug lords hide their money

[@CMCJJT]

I was hired as an expat project manager for condo development in 2013 and lived and worked in Mandaluyong for 4 years. Yes, you are right. The overbuild situation has been building up for years. The developments I was put in charge of had over a thousand units each !! 400 to 500 units that you mentioned would be considered medium development at best. The units built were tiny, with small doors, toilets, kitchen, and low ceilings. Some of the apartments had so low a ceiling that the owners couldn't even fix any ceiling fans ! These apartments were expensive, and buyers were really short-changed on the features they got. One more important thing that you didn't mention because only industry insider would know was the construction quality. Irregularities and short cuts were common, and poor quality of steel, concrete, and cement were often used in the rush to complete these projects by the contractors. I, personally, will not live in any of these tall apartments and wait for the next big quake to hit Manila. Also, the developers would be lucky to clear all units 5 years after the first turnover. They will just rent out those units they couldn't sell thereafter.

[@robocop581]

What development was this?

[@robocop581]

I have condos at OSP in Mandaluyong and the development is great. Awesome amenities. Completed in 2015 and it still looks new. BTW, ceiling at OSP is 2.9 meters, at St Francis 3.1 meters

[@robocop581]

Your comment on potential earthquake applies as well in Vancouver, San Francisco and LA yet those cities are densely developed so your argument is bunk. I could also argue modern condo buildings in Manila are more earthquake proof than the typical houses in Manila.

[@CMCJJT]

​​@@robocop581 were you involved in the design and construction of the condos that you bought ?? And why would you even compare the construction standards in the US with that in the Philippines ??!! Just pray hard that you will no longer be around when the next major quake hits Manila.

[@robocop581]

​@@CMCJJTIgnorant comment. A typical Loser that thinks he knows more than people that have actually experienced it. My condos are still standing Dufus and in great condition. Keep harping cause that's all you got - hot air

[@nyknicksable]

Those condos weren’t worth the prices they were charging 5 years ago. Only a fool would purchase at today’s prices. When considering the quality and size of these condos the prices are grossly overpriced. It will be a crash!

[@elephantmoney]

Ya no kidding. 8 million is already very expensive but 25 million is insane. Worse than North America even.

[@richardoang8373]

Yes specially in the philippines

[@archilife2555]

PH's highest GDP export isn't OFW's or tourism, it's actually semiconductors which is the highest complexity export that currently exists. PH is set to be a benificiary of Taiwan diversifying production and the US Chips act making PH semiconductor production a key node in the move away from China.

[@quesee08]

This is already happening for the last 12 months I would think. The question is why are these developers staying afloat (since I dont see them lowering their price esp in desirable areas)? Are the government helping them? These are shady deals...Totally agree. Philippines should build better mass trains infrustructure for inter connection and invest more on local martket instead of corporation and franchises....

[@DoctorDoctor2x]

The Philippines has been stuck in its own bubble for over 40 years, doing its thing with the whole Filipino-first business vibe. Meanwhile, just look at the other countries in Southeast Asia-they’re all booming. Except the Philippines. Ever wonder why? It’s because of the 60/40 ownership rule in the 1987 Constitution. That’s the problem right there.

[@ajp3912]

99.999% of Filipinos won't afford the condos there in BGC. Besides 22.9% of Filipino Families experience involuntary hunger. Cannot afford food even of the lowest or worst quality.

[@jackieharrison7073]

So true! Tourism is not really making money there. There's not really big corporations investing due to corruptions of government officials and employees, so much redtapes. Hopefully it will change. Thanks for your insights. 👍

[@boyasia5874]

Possible..prices are sky high. Many condos vacant and most are for rent. Most owners are absent homeowners meaning they live outside of the country Most condo units are very small like bird cages

[@Captford]

@@boyasia5874 Chinese owned and operated

[@just.jules.973]

I've already seen it coming 3-4yrs ago. Greedy Developers selling overpriced tiny condos. Its not sustainable especially for a country and its people earning very low minimum wages, there's only so much condos you can sell to expats and Filipinos living overseas.

[@matrices3987]

It costs at most 30k USD to build a tiny concrete shoe box in the sky with poverty wages and shit quality furnishings. The profits are in excess of 90%. This is obvious. A 50% price crash isn't going to stop the building. It is still a suckers price for would be buyers. The corrupt huge corporations are selling to the Filipino rich, not the OFWs. The Philippines has a corrupt business class with huge profits and poor business practices which is why the country is the worst value in Asia for tourists.

[@Mega-zi7ys]

But these "genius" so called expats are experts...they know everything about the Philippines .... they're the only ones that can afford and the ofw's. Shhh...they know best because they speak English with a foreign accent.

[@rmondave]

Correct. Huge dirty money flows into condo land banks. Moreover foreigners cannot own houses or land so are forced into condo scam

[@Gregory-Masovutch]

@@matrices3987 The land prices are also inflated plus the HOA doesn’t even own the land. So with the 50 year rule, the land owner can resell the land at any price and the condo owners are stuck at a pro-rata share whatever that number is.

[@jaymsjags06]

The business class here literally own the politicians are are more powerful than them

[@bryllew3]

Average Filipinos can’t even afford a condominium.

[@louis-philippesavard742]

Another thing many forget is that they base the price compared to first word country where construction highly regulated, worker salary is very expensive. They need insurance. All steps are inspected thoroughly... They want the same price without any of that.

[@1375chelsea]

The condo bubble already burst. There’s already 60% oversupply of units. The over inflated prices have become so unreasonable that no one is buying them. The next bubble to burst is real estate in parts of metro Manila where POGO operators used to reside like Paranaque, Pasay. Same with Cavite (especially Tagaytay). 80% of housing there are up for sale and been sitting in the market for 2 years already. It’s because these realtors price their listings way too high. We have no database of comparables that’s why sellers over inflate their selling price. It’s so outrageously expensive that it cheaper to buy a property in the States.

[@ronesmasantos9502]

There’s so many of that properties that will soon becomes empty because non of the local can afford that high price of living. Most OFW would rather own a land instead of getting stuck in that trendy ghettos.

[@axizcorp]

Taguig BGC have least unoccupied unit while Ortigas have 18000 unoccupied units while QC have 60000

[@brodixtv4993]

Only 1800 units in bgc unsold.. 😂😂😂😂

[@robocop581]

​​@brodixtv4993 It's actually 1,300 units or roughly 2 1/2 buildings. Go count the number of Buildings in BGC if you think that's an over supply

[@Multisportamateur]

Whoa! How about makati? If I were to buy, there are only two places I’d consider: Gramacy or Venice Lux suites. Hehe.

[@j.r.6517]

Ortigas has 13500 approx, QC has 18800.BGC 1300 From where are you getting those numbers. 😂

[@kpopbillionaire]

I'm annoyed with condominium agents telling you buying condominium is a great investment. They would tell you can rent them out and pay the unit easily. And you end up being broke.

[@nevilex]

I hope so. They're all overinflated and the prices developers are putting up are ridiculous. I'd like to set up a base there but I'd rather go for foreclosures and flash sales because you never know what type of admin those new buildings would get. We bought an SM Light unit nearby but the cockroaches there are notoriously bad and elevators were so slow it takes 30mins to even get out. I heard some similar stories with the maybe med-lower end projects. High-end are just overpriced for very little benefit.

[@ml3276]

That's a valid point! The condo market here seems to be overpriced, with some owners being charged as much as $75,000 a year just for parking. This raises concerns about the overall value. I've personally decided to hold off on purchasing any more condos. Many buyers, particularly Filipinos living abroad, seem to be capitalizing on the current situation. If this trend continues, it could lead to significant market corrections. Many individuals find that their condos are not meeting their needs, as they often feel too small and expensive. Instead of continuing to incur extra fees, some are choosing to sell. It might be beneficial for the market to reassess pricing structures and ensure that expectations align with what buyers want.

[@PatheticMortal]

as a filipino i thank you for your very honest oppinion in this topic, because the main stream media sugar coating this issue.

[@iamnotyourmonkeygaming637]

Lived in BGC from 2012 to 2014 was paying 40k for a one bedroom condo in the Blue Sapphire, and since then, condo prices have gone up 5 times, but even today, i would probably pay 45k to 50k for the same condo. Now, if you have the money (which i dont) buying a condo is easy. The hard part is selling it because, as the old saying goes, something is only worth what people are willing to pay. Are condos in BGC overpriced well I was in the Philippines in September and got quoted 26 million for a 1 bedroom condo in uptown arts, when i can buy a 5 bedroom house in lipa city for 7 million with land. So i would buy the house and airbnb a condo in manila if and then i needed one.

[@alexchua7936]

The condo developers and investors avoid talking about PHILIPPINES 🇵🇭 CONDO CRASHED ISSUES 😂😂😂😂😂

[@robocop581]

I'm an investor. Only idiots like you think we're panicking because you want us to fall to your miserable level. Misery loves company

[@j.r.6517]

Yes it is over supply for 2 year's. After that there will be a rise again. This is the good time to buy now 😂

[@alexchua7936]

@@j.r.6517 not yet one more year baba pa ang real estate prices kc wala buyers

[@darktemplar8140]

Because of the influx of Chinese POGO workers coming in PH, condo prices went up so high. Now that POGOs are banned, you have empty units left behind with high prices. Developers can't lower the prices as to not anger the existing unit owners.

[@Ncollins99]

Having leased a condo in McKinley West for 1 year my wife and I were blown away by the number of unoccupied condos. In addition quite a few units were owned by folks who had never occupied or even rented their units. So we were the first renters of their unit. When I asked why they bought the unit in the first place they said it was an investment and they hoped to flip it for a profit. Unfortunately every other unit in the building had the same idea, so competition was tough and they now needed to rent the unit to help with their condo mortgage asap. Long story short we bargained them down to what we felt was a fair monthly rent.

[@jhunocampo4310]

Buying a condo as an investment for lease is not a good idea these days. It will take at least 10 years or more before your ROI or return on investment or unless you're into buy and sell with a great salestalk.

[@ScoreGuru123]

Chinese will buy up the empty condos

[@Ncollins99]

@@jhunocampo4310 Agreed, I think quite a few folks are just figuring that out now, unfortunately......

[@mjfab74]

@@Ncollins99 if some one invested 6-5 years ago, then yes its almost 3x ROI, but after covid, price just skyrocketed.. people could not sell their condos at current price... alot waitng for the bubble for bargain discount condos defaulting... unless building developers has rites to buy first....somethings afoot alot of speculation as of late.

[@Ncollins99]

@@mjfab74 we saw something similar down south with land. Many 10 year old gated communities with ALL the lots sold and maybe only three or four homes actually built. Looked like a place to park your cash ‘if’ you believe that there would be good equity after a number of years.

[@JogieGlenMait16]

we had an opportunity to buy a condo 5 years ago. we didn't. we put up a business which increased our cashflow while we rented a small house. it will correct soon and it will correct hard. hope people are ready for it unlike what happened to China's Evergrande.

[@williamgarcia102]

Nailed it in the head... These corporations never learned from the US economy crashed back in 08... Right now, I'm gonna let my money grow through my 401K & stocks. When the right time comes up, its time to buy buy buy but definitely not a condo in Makati or BGC...

[@aboveitall9600]

BGC / Real Estate in the Philippines isn’t an investment like we think of it in the West. The only benefit is use…You get to go back and forth to the same location…Manila isn’t a great city… BGC may be the nicest spot but it’s essentially fake…Its a private developer that made essentially a Philippines Beverly Hills, it’s not representative of the overall state of the city or stability.

[@1776dougie]

first video I've ever seen from you, you're quite grounded and i find that your take is the most realistic from all the others I've seen about this issue, well done

[@alvensleben363]

Pogos jacked up rental prices of condos. Now that they're gone, prices are now free falling, which can be a good thing so that more locals can afford to buy one. But even if the prices go down, locals are probably not the target market, but ofws and foreigners who want to invest or retire. But even ofws are considering buying houses in the provinces, and foreigners are going somewhere else with better prices and return of investment such as Thailand or Vietnam. With no one buying or renting condos, they're just dead assets, and another evergrande situation is waiting in the local real estate market. Even as a local, i don't think buying a condo in metro is worth your money lmao

[@hufficag]

What about foreigners who just want to live in a glass luxury condo on the 35th floor, feeling like you're urban and sophisticated and a recluse, with no neighbours, just focusing on your books and computer

[@craigfleming-dc7fw]

Its a joke!! 750 k Usd for a place in manilla made by someone on $20 a day , ridiculous

[@viktorjn6039]

Well articulated view on real estate market conditions in Philippines. Keep "em coming!

[@BobAndrade-x3y]

Developers are not using their cash the buyers is??? You’re paying your unit even you haven’t move in. In U.S Just pay required deposit then pay the balance when you move in via escrow . Your safe in case of any issues

[@FranciscoPaculanang]

The Philippine property market is fairly well compartmentalized in that banks are extremely cautious on handing out mortgages. Defaults do happen and will continue to happen as we head into the uncertainties of a post-POGO world and a slowdown in the global economy. This price correction in the property market would probably be very tame and might not be as severe simply because the owners or buyers of these condos are spread out around the world. One economy might be booming while others are struggling. It's not gonna be a domino effect as many would hope it would be to snag a good bargain.

[@1776dougie]

Agree, and as mentioned the developers have their own banks, nothings stopping them from just restructuring their debts til kingdom come

[@biodiversity9808]

Philippines isnt offering much for tourism. I have been there once, i dont really feel like going back anytime soon. On the other hand i cannot wait to go back to Thailand.

[@machinesnmetal]

I went and looked at a couple condos in Newtown 2 years ago and there were units that had been on listings for 4 years.

[@robertschill2686]

One minute in, he actually asks if its normal for a condo developer to take three years to sell out all it’s units. The answer, of course, is that it’s perfectly normal. The developer goes bankrupt, sells to another broker, who then sells the units at a discount. Suddenly, you go from living in a luxury condo complex to living in public housing. BTW, here in-the USA, we print money out of thin air to bail out the banks.

[@MrNatsuka]

Anyone who buys a unit almost twice the proce of another adjacent apartment older by a few years only, it will not end well when the bubble starts to blow up. An example would be the Shore Residences at MOA.

[@jlmarc01]

Well said brother. Dammmm, u speak the truth. To those who claim that condo prices would rise later for better return, u just parked your 300k USD or more and not even getting 1% ROI. And that pure stupidity as an investor

[@mfdockery]

AI is going to take a big bite out of the BPO industry. More pain ahead! 13:46

[@omniyambot9876]

very important constructive criticism. You are better than the politicians here.

[@50Options]

The majority of OFW s are laborers or low salaries. A lot of them have to borrow make for their airline tickets

[@BobAndrade-x3y]

Much cheaper to buy land in the province and build your own 20 million is mansion 20 mil is only one bedroom condo in makati near dusit hotel parking not even kasali!!! Insane

[@ravince]

There’s really a surplus of high-end condos and lack of low-end affordable condominiums.

[@jamesjavellana5]

Have to commend Mr. Merg on saying the things he said. Hard to find an honest economic coverage here in the Philippines. The great economist, Ludwig Von Meses says, it is always the foreigners first that quickly understand if a country is in a debt / currency crisis.

[@anthonyyu478]

Crash or no crash, it's best not to expect anything to change. 😂 When everything's hyped up, people here generally become irrational about property, and prices tend to skyrocket. Reality only bites when the properties get foreclosed. But probably not in BGC or Makati. Those who can afford property there will have the deep pockets to hang on to their units for generations. People are suckers for prestige. 😅😂🤣

[@thasarg4288]

So are rent prices going down???

[@noe.arboleda]

It is already, but most filipino like me doesnt care, its out of our league.

[@machinesnmetal]

It's just like in Canada, the citizens can't afford a home.

[@guitaretc.485]

It will only affect those who built these useless, tight, shoe box room called condos. People are not dumb, they will not buy these sorry excuse of a room called condos. Greed will come back and bite them back.

[@papapapapaa88]

You are more aware of this problem than locals here.

[@ezjerseykana]

Firstly, it can be challenging to discuss serious topics like the economy and lifestyle, especially in casual settings like the street. Secondly, Mergim, I've been following your work since your initial comparison between Thailand and the Philippines. I must say, you've done a great job with your in-depth report on the condo market situation in the Philippines. Kudos to you, my friend-keep up the great work! I hope to see you covering a wide range of topics soon.

[@mikeealtiveros137]

It’s hard to market philippines, because of infrastructure. And the price is really expensive here.

[@jakexake2940]

Made in toxic China materials for condo construction have made Manila condos unsafe to live in. For example, toxic radioactive sheet rocks, tiles that causes fibrosis of the lungs. These are but a tiny sample of why the developers have used inferior Chinese materials at the buyer's expense.

[@jerryppih]

Source? That’s quite an alarming thing to say without any evidence

[@Global-livingg]

Why blame China? It's the cheap landlords and Filipino development firms that are poisoning people - choosing to buy the worst of the worst products. I've lived in China in apartments 1/5th the cost of a BGC condo that have good quality materials, albeit a simple design with no amenities. It's a choice of the developer. They can buy good quality materials, from China or elsewhere, or they can buy the worst of the worst from China or India and poison their customers.

[@Xynic48]

​@@jerryppih source: trust me bro

[@tollbridgeahead1034]

Proof?

[@khtan585]

BS ..... likely caused by very poor local builders & workers without any skill or proper training.

[@Scaran1982]

There aren’t as many foreigners visiting or moving the php compared to several years ago. The allure isn’t there anymore.

[@printhelloworld001]

I have friends or friends-of-friends who are nurses/ engineers/ programmers abroad. They buy condo units as part of their retirement plans. The condos are also their home-base whenever they fly in for vacations. Agree with you though, some developers are being greedy, not taking care of their clients. There’s a recent vlog from the Kito Family channel complaining about the quality of the condo that they have purchased. This gives a bad reputation to Philippine condos in general 😢

[@dave_mate4244]

Honestly its WAYYYY overpriced in Philippines. I was looking for Condos for 500K USD and I was APPALLED by the poor selection of condos and the kitchens were SOO SMALL. For 500K USD you can get a BEAUTIFUL PENTHOUSE in Colombia in MEDELLÍN AND BOGOTÁ with a lot of SQUARE FOOTAGE and beautiful large kitchens and the standard of living is better than the Philippines. I hope there's a HUGE correction so the ordinary FILIPINO can AFFORD a home there.

[@FredKelsey-l6z]

Very honest review about Philippines real estate bubbles.

[@allen9129]

I agree with this guy. The Phils is not what it use to be. The Phils has lost is glammor. many of the guys that moved there are getting old an passing on. Plus many other variables are involved. Samething is taking place in Cebu. Question? Why move to the Phils to live within the exact same enviorment that we have here being in the city. The reality is the Phils is much to Westernized, and its turning people off. It use to be reasonable to live there. But now the costs are very simular to the West.

[@rl8571]

Most analytics is based on historical because that is what investors want to see. I am always asked to remove saturation impact based on who else is building. They see what they want to see

[@74Gee]

The 3x price increase in the past 5 years is the safety net for the developers and it's the reason the construction rate is up. The construction costs are essentially the same and the land investment is practically irrelevant when it comes to condos. There's no crash coming.

[@mauimixer6040]

Such a shame with corruption,as they are such wonderful people !

[@pattrickmerete]

It's overinflated, the bubble would pop really soon.

[@JeffersonRah]

You can say the same about USA. People have been saying this since 2007. Heybe printed way too much money. It will fall but not soon enough.

[@cjcrystal1726]

10 years ive heard this

[@KimAngeloCruz]

lol noob take GEN Z.. maybe you dont have experience in real estate

[@WindMills_]

I personally disagree with the BPO take, While it does not pay rly high, it is still a source of revenue for the govt and having seen the manufacturing salaries, they even pay WAY LESS than the BPO side. High end manufacturing may pay better in the end BUT they require some convincing from investors to manufacture here which currently they are hesitant because of the exorbitant prices of energy costs here. If the Government remove the BPO here, the countries that gives the jobs will just outsource elsewhere like for example in India. The gambling side like pogo, Im fine with that to be removed but the other jobs field is good.

[@tevtv3450]

Ai gonna really hit bpo hard

[@DonatoBentajado]

@@sentimentalboy81I agree with the blogger’s assessment of the condo situation in the Philippines and, BGC, in particular. I have been looking into buying a condo unit in the BGC area but decided against it because I find the price too high, unrealistic and unjustifiable even though affordability is not an issue. In my personal opinion, I’m much better off buying a real estate investment in the U.S., especially in the Silicon Valley because selling in the future won’t be problem at all. It’s quite the opposite situation pretty much everywhere else in the Philippines including BGC: very easy to buy but extremely difficult to unload due thousands of unsold real estate properties constantly flooding the market. For this reason, I have been on the fence unable to find justification for buying a condo unit at such an exorbitant price with suspect build-quality. I also did research and found out that there are literally thousands of condos for sale throughout the Philippines, including basically thousands of units unsold in BGC alone. Many of the condos sit on the market unsold for years. Therefore, there’s definitely an over supply of condo units in the Philippines, including BGC. At what point is the unsustainable price of real estate market in the Philippines going to crash is not a matter of IF but WHEN. It will be bloody and ugly when it finally happens. I might finally decide to scoop up a condo unit in BGC at a discount or bargain basement price that I’m comfortable with. But really, time is on my side as I’m in no hurry.

[@TheBigBananaaa]

China 🇨🇳 property market has crashed 50% in the last 2 to 3 years which is a problem for the Philippines 🇵🇭 because about 50% of property investment pre pandemic 😷 was Chinese 🇨🇳 foreigners are mostly renters so who is buying these condos now 🙀

[@maxbedroom6234]

Thanks for the perspective! Appreciated every opinion. Even from a foreigner's point of view. I, myself, can't understand how things are added into the computation (or equation) when it comes to anything...economics. 😅 But what is quite clear to me is...Not a lot of Filipinos can afford to buy or invest in condominium units! And it's also baffling why the major financial and commercial areas in my beloved country The Philippines are not populated by tons of foreigners or tourists (esp those subHNWI). I guess it has something to do with focus and strategy (which the country is lacking since our Lord Knows When)😐 And it's correct to opine that BPO alone CANNOT boost economic growth! There's got to be some things (deep enough to create something long-term) that will make this country on par with its more stable and prosperous Southeast Asian neighbors.

[@darkroast66]

I would love continuing updates on the condo market in BGC. There is another vlogger there in BGC saying some of the same things, but he’s such a pompous A-hole, it’s hard to listen to his videos.

[@iloveplumpgrannies174]

Is it Brian the Lion or something. I can't remember his name.

[@dg87]

Last month, I think, it was around 34 months. So, kinda under... 🤣There was another news of they didn't name what company, they gave away condo units to their employees as Christmas gift. Add to that,many vacant/selling/unoccupied units right now. They're even selling it at a loss. That's the current state of the market right now. 😁

[@justsmy5677]

Agree. The forecast for the next 5-10 years sounds like cheaper rents and beer prices holding steady! 🙀

[@SirMountainpass]

On point - appreciate your analysis!

[@weeooh1]

As of last year, Bangkoks over-supply of apts/condos dwarfed that of Manila. Yet amazingly prices have held firm if not risen in 2024. I guess demand from foreigners as well as middle class Thais with a higher GDP than Phil sort of mitigates the problem.

[@millennialinmanila5621]

Because there is less demand in Thailand hence prices dont rise up plus the fact that their population is small and yet its an aging population meaning not many new generations that will work and fuel their economy in the future. Very few number of future “buyers” of estates.

[@LetsWalk-sn1bu]

Really,? I started the purchase of a condo in chiang Mai ten years ago. But decided not to complete. Just checked the second hand price. And it is the same now as 10 years ago

[@weeooh1]

@manijj4j52 google thailand gdp vs philippines. Also Thais per capita income much higher than PH. And thats the more relevant part.

[@jaymsjags06]

You are correct, Thailand is much richer than the Philippines. In the Philippines, there is no middle class, only rich and everyone else

[@Roland-o8p]

Most condos are overpriced, cheaply made ,and bad layouts. RESALE IS AWFUL,

[@jamessotelo788]

It reminds me about, miami florida and portland, oregon when i was there 4 years ago. But, BGC IS ALWAYS THE BEST

[@Captford]

In 2023, I was quoted 13 million pesos for a 350-square-foot condo in Makati. The condo had no kitchen cabinets, sink, toilet, shower, etc., and bare walls. The condo would not be ready until 2028. What a joke. A Chinese investment.

[@napadaanlng69]

Developers have a weird layout of their condos making more units per buildings in such a small room for an artificially inflated prices as if the Philippines have a land supply problem like in Hong Kong then it would be understandable to make a building where it can house more units but developers did this since they taught they can sold each of the units and get away with the profits but in reality the condos they build are empty and that's what they get from being greedy. Btw you forgot to mention that the Philippines have the highest labor tax in South East Asia. I also agree with you that Filipinos should upskill but with the current 1987 constitution that stipulated 60%-40% ownership of business (Filipino 60%/Foreign 40%) tends to make investors shy away from investing in the Philippines given with the poor infrastructure and corruption in establishing a business. That's why most of the Filipino companies here are service oriented industries majority of which are the BPO companies.

[@bizonlinetools270]

I've heard that those ownership restrictions have been changed recently, and now foreigners can own 100%, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps it has to do with this issue.

[@1776dougie]

60-40 is easily bypassed and isn't even the biggest problem, it's just a red herring, it's easily dealt with by complex ownership structures. The biggest problem is high electricity cost (low fossil fuel reserves, island geography, weak investments on renewables, no nuclear power generation) and corruption (self-explanatory).

[@napadaanlng69]

@1776dougie thanks for also mentioning this

[@odiesotomayor271]

I really hope our politicians in the Philippines are listening. Excellent points of concerns were addressed in this video.

[@Rich_Mond007]

Buying condos is stupid. Renting condos and buying a house are the only options. Never get fooled by sellers that units are sold out it is just a scam to fool you.

[@stevem437]

Are you married to a Filipino? You can’t buy a home if you’re a foreigner.

[@olboe2008]

@@stevem437 when you are married you still cant buy a home!

[@ChrisSauer-oe5ve]

Another issue is Philippines not allowing foreigners from buying land. Which in turns doesn’t allow them to invest more into the Philippines

[@criscastro8055]

I was in the Philippines last and have notice a lot of condominiums and still continue to build and wonder who’s gonna buy all this unit, majority of the Filipinos working abroad are not rich. I’m predicting that there will be a real state collapse in the Philippines sometime in the future.

[@709sheep.master]

Filipinos does not want condo because it will only used your money and condo will live only 25 years, why need to spend condo if you can buy a small land and house. For filipino, money is very hard to earn. In short condo is for pagmayaman, pagnagnenegosyo, but if average person ka masgusto mo bibili ka ng lupa at bahay kahit low cost.

[@kikiandjasmine]

I purchased condos 6 months ago with delivery in December 2031. Even got a 20% discount as a cash buyer. Exclusive location in BGC. I guess all I can do is sit back and wait 😊

[@darkboard5556]

You fell for it? Lol

[@amaliahightower]

You shouldn’t have done that.

[@juangreatlife194]

oh oh hmmm😢

[@teeh7125]

7 years out? Are you sure?

[@kikiandjasmine]

@teeh7125 Yes, it only recently started the foundations. It's marketed as one of the most upscale condo towers in BGC. It will be the tallest building in BGC. Megaworld realty is behind the project. A trusted company in the Philippines

[@efrencastro9271]

Its a crash. The developers are just greedy

[@222jojo]

I did not think the article was talking about condo building turnover? Maybe I mis-read it. It's ALWAYS about selling price, right now the Manila condos are WAY overpriced. If a seller lets his condo for a "market fair" price, it will likely sell quicker than most out there (condition and location aside). BGC will draw a premium price but the market will ultimately decide what the price is.

[@matthewlang7364]

With many Philippines people living in tin shacks there isn’t an over supply issue. This new housing stock is needed to improve the quality of life for all. However, prices just need correcting.

[@GregorySloanCLUChFC]

Why would anyone buy? Perhaps they like get getting surprise bills they don't understand. Just rent for less and move when you feel like it.

[@get2riz]

Mergim -- From what I can gather from the comments, I made the following conclusion: >> Limited Ownership: Condominiums cater to wealthier segments, not the average Filipino. >> Focus on Affordability: Most Filipinos prioritize affordable housing over high-end condos. >> Economic Resilience: Other key sectors like agriculture and BPOs buffer the broader economy. >> Potential Rent Benefits: A crash could make urban living more affordable for renters. Philippine policymakers could significantly expand the economy by adopting "inclusive economic development," a strategy successfully implemented by neighbouring ASEAN countries. Unfortunately, political personalities and name recognition often hold greater sway with the voting public than substantive and progressive policy ideas, hindering long-term economic progress.

[@JoeyZee-vs4kr]

NOT Condo crash but Plane Crash in South Korea a few hours ago.

[@kalyoskie]

"Is the Philippines Condo Crash Near?" "Ugh... I don't know I don't know" 🙄🙄🙄 10:20

[@gabriellorenzo6589]

Good stuff, please keep posting content like this, the REAL situation in the Ph in a foreign perspective

[@eu7435]

It was Chinese nationals supporting the high prices for Manila condos. But, now the Pogos have been sent packing. Prices will have to drop. A boon for foreigners who dont own a condo there already.

[@roytacleb8781]

Very informative. Thanks!