Is The Stock Market In Another Bubble?

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[@stuartnicklin4101]

Cheers Toby ,you make things and thoughts much clearer👍

[@glenakatsr]

DCA through bull markets, DCA through bear markets, market always crashes and rises again and again

[@TobyNewbatt]

Don’t give away the secrets Glen! 😀😎

[@glenakatsr]

@@TobyNewbatt sorry lol, just rewatched the big short and margin call for the 3rd time running 🥲😅

[@declanmcardle]

@6:00 SuperMicro make the motherboards which take the chips made by AMD and Intel for them by TSMC on machines made by ASML and have slots for the Nvidia graphics cards and then Amazon and Google and Microsoft come along and put them in the data centers. It's a bit like "the knee bone's connected to the leg bone..." but with computer stuff...

[@nickedwards6748]

Really sensible and good advice. Time in the market beats ... Thanks!

[@UKGeezer]

Thanks for another very interesting video, Toy. I'm going to put most of my money in time travel tech, think this is going to be huge in 20 or so years.

[@Dasm.]

I'm a new subscriber and also a new investor and I just want to say thank you so much for these awesome videos. You make it all so easy to follow. Cheers Toby!

[@TobyNewbatt]

Welcome aboard!

[@minimad8793]

cheers Toby, soldiering on with the monthly top up grind :)

[@kevinu.k.7042]

Interesting video. Thanks Yup, the world could be on fire, but before my morning cup of tea is made and drunk... Nothing is done. Sensible man!

[@VVellieMan]

Great content as ever Toby, appreciate all these vids you make for us. Well tbh I am nervous about the current highs in equity indexes, so have shifted a good lot into cash at 5% recently. I just need to get my head around bonds and gilts before switching the cash into those when interest rates fall. Hint, hint any chance on more content explaining bonds and gilts..??

[@TobyNewbatt]

maybe a good future video. Look out also for some high-interest rates around. I have my emergency money in Trading 212 as cash at the moment and its getting 5.2%

[@valerienewbatt9678]

Excellent video content, as always Toby

[@bionic909]

The market will always drop, but hey will also return higher. However, im 53, only been saving a pension for 6 months, i invest my maximum for a SIPP split into monthly payments. I dont really have a long term.

[@geolykos]

I learned my lesson after buying a lot in 2020-2021. Never buying in a crazy bull market again. I'd rather wait to buy in small or big pullbacks. I bought loads in 2022-23 and I still put my money in my S&S ISA monthly though.

[@porschecarreras992cabriole8]

Bought mostly Oct 23 so I was lucky the timing was very good!

[@eddiewilliamsmentalist]

really interesting content, thanks Toby

[@asharyal8605]

Quality video and very real. Thank you for not trying to sell a dream

[@TobyNewbatt]

🙏

[@Abdul_Rahman86]

Yes toby!!!!! Dropping an absolute banger of a video yet again. Personally tech and the magnificent are definitely overvalued. But because Im holding these equities in my SIPP which I can’t access for 25 years, I’m still going to DCA. The other alternative with my money is Wetherspoons and cocaine. Which is a 500% return on my happiness but a -500% ROI

[@TobyNewbatt]

DCA definitely better than Spoons :P

[@Lovemy911]

The voice of reason yet again 😊....

[@TobyNewbatt]

my mum will be so happy :P

[@Lovemy911]

And proud 😂👍

[@porschecarreras992cabriole8]

@@TobyNewbatttell mummy we love you! She will know you have good friends around you and feel good!

[@DomJC14]

Hey Toby! You should do a video on planned reform to create a British ISA

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks for the idea

[@Norfolkpaul]

Always fun 😊great job on this video

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks again!

[@squibys2262]

Supermicro was covered by Nobody special finance, before anyone is thinking theyre missing out

[@Dr.JubairsFinance]

Another quality video Toby

[@hdrd84]

Say there is a bubble, particularly in some S&P 500 stocks. What would be the effect of this in a global fund such as VAFTGAG?

[@montyloads]

When bubble bursts the funds value (nav price) will come down a bit. I believe of the top of my head that fund is made up of around 60% USA stocks

[@adrianl5899]

I came here for the bubble and stayed for breakfast tips. Now I'm not only continuing to invest but more likely to live longer to enjoy it. Good stuff!

[@TobyNewbatt]

Tune in next time for ideas for a healthy lunch and dinner 😂😂😂

[@The_Alpha_Channel]

Toby Is Google Finance any good for tracking funds and stocks? Or is there a better way - please. Thank you

[@ChrisShawUK]

For tracking what?

[@mikerodent3164]

My old friend from The Valleys, though. Di Versification. There's lovely for you I'd say.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Such a lovely guy, Di always waves at me when I drive past

[@philiplythgoe7173]

All time high my arse, FTSE has been as flat has a pancake since 1999, PE ratios are at rock botum. Ya dig

[@ChrisShawUK]

I started investing in the FTSE 100 in 1998 and stopped work in 2019 aged 51. My average return was 6.8% pa (or around 3% above inflation). Since 2022, I've moved half my portfolio to s&p, but the FTSE was plenty enough power over those couple of decades to build enough wealth for financial independence

[@philiplythgoe7173]

Still go to work so l can claim tax credits, may as well buy and sell comps while earning a wage. LOL i'm the dogs bollucks

[@idiomatika]

Yup. The supercomputer inside my skull is also consumed with the jaffa cake conundrum!

[@TobyNewbatt]

😂😂😂😂

[@wallace-bv4rl]

I’m retired and so in general I’m selling. As I have various funds I choose every year or so what I’m selling based on historic performance. So am I market timing in a way not advised to buyers?? Feels like maybe I am but then as retirees are a advised to hold an amount of cash in case the market drops it seems we are expected to recognise good and bad historic performance.

[@TruthTeller00]

Cheers Toby, am I right in saying it’s V3AB you use for your SIPP?

[@TobyNewbatt]

No that’s an ESG etf. My investments on vanguard are all in a mutual fund. The ftse global all cap. A mutual fund is not traded like an etf and is only available on vanguards platform directly 👍 Very similar to VWRL/ VWRP is you want a close comparison

[@TruthTeller00]

@@TobyNewbatt Thanks mate. I set myself up with VUAG/VHVG, 80/20 recently. I know VWRL TER is +0.1%, but I prefer the idea of all world rather than developed world and I’ll be making the adjustment. Wouldn’t want to miss the new Apple when we’re old and grey now would we? 😉 Have a great weekend! 🍻

[@pauldeal68]

Hi Tony any thoughts on sipps v isas...I'm 56 got a couple of old pensions ....frozen ...and currently pay into the nest scheme...I was going to open a new vanguard stocks isa in April..as I currently have a ig trading isa at the moment..I also want to open a sipp with vanguard too..I know u don't give advice ...but in my shoes would u bother with the sipp ? Or just open the isa ? I thought the extra pension pot might helpful

[@TobyNewbatt]

I did a video on this a few weeks back called ISA vs SIPP, probably best watching that one :)

[@pauldeal68]

@@TobyNewbatt ok 👍

[@brickchamp4199]

I've timed the market beautifully today! 200 into my managed Portfolio, 200 into my DIY Portfolio and 200 into my SIPP.

[@TobyNewbatt]

teach me your ways dear master! I am not worthy!

[@Skjult-Identitet]

If you had 30k in savings, would you invest it all in an index fund or would you put in 1k of it per month instead?

[@TobyNewbatt]

It really is up to you - the stats say that for a long term investor lump sum is best. But if you can't sleep at night then just do what works for you. There are no guarantees in the short term.

[@martinsykes9904]

Apologies if this is a dumb question. How much is market growth driven by millions (or hundreds of millions?) of people automatically/blindly investing at any price every month for their future retirement? And should we expect that growth to cool as those aging investors start to sell at any price to fund their retirement?

[@TobyNewbatt]

The market is driven by buyers and sellers - for every person buying, someone else is selling. Passive investing only works because a sale is being made between two parties. The majority of price discovery is not done by passive index fund investing, this is done by the active investment community of which there is hundreds of billions being moved around. There will never be a time where investment is all done passively, in fact it's just not possible. Active players are the ones setting the prices.

[@quokkapirquish6825]

The planet has inflated the money supply during Covid to the tune of trillions of pounds, dollars, euros and every other currency. No wonder we have higher prices in everything, food, fuel, gold, wages, houses, stocks, everything! This is A-level economic theory in action. The stock market is going to go nuts.

[@TobyNewbatt]

so..you're saying to the moon right? :P

[@quokkapirquish6825]

@@TobyNewbatt I’m sticking to my prediction of the S&P 500 hitting 6000 this year

[@DatSupraKid]

Hey Toby congratulations on the growth! I Remember watching when you put 8k into vusa lol

[@TobyNewbatt]

just getting started :)

[@gilbertyalley2995]

Thanks

[@gilbertyalley2995]

Already a premium member. A gift to say thanks for your hard work and consistency in your videos. Well done bud

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks Gilbert, always appreciate the kind words and support :)

[@puneetcuteboy]

I don't see a point of the caption if you don't answer or try to answer the question.

[@Chanesmyname]

Guessing the market makes astrology seem like a good science. :)

[@TomsPersonalFinance]

When are you launching your patreon for "live access to your buys and sells", Toby? 😉

[@TobyNewbatt]

Join mY TelEgRam Bro and I wiLl ShoW yOu WoT to InVesT in for JuSt $150 a mOntH

[@david-fletcher]

Ignoring inflation, a risk off 5.19% MMF is not such a bad place to be right now depending on age

[@TobyNewbatt]

Yes true, you have to manage what works for you. For me if I was in retirement/ drawdown I'd hold 2/3 years worth of expenses in cash so that stock market moves don't affect my decisions.

[@whatthedeuce3006]

very good video

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks for the visit

[@lawrencer25]

❤❤❤ Been Investing for over 20+ year and done extremely well ❤❤❤ Its funny at the moment i have a large some of money and not sure where to invest ... First world problem.. My money in the markets are fine . Everything iam considering to invest in , is just to high for me at the market. Great video 🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@ShameerRavji]

Thx for the vid. I honestly don't care if the markets are at an ATH, I just keep DCA'ing into the S&P500 whenever I get paid through an employer matching program here in Canada. As for timing the market, I always get a kick out of people who claim that they or someone they know can time the market.

[@jack-my8cf]

Hey Toby, got a topic for you to discuss - less and less companies want to be listed and stock market isn’t as representative of the global economy as it used to be. How do we as investors seek alternative inv?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Where are you getting that idea Jack? Listing on the public markets is the goal for the vast majority of companies as its the biggest way to ensure a huge exit for shareholders? There are not less and less every year - unless you are talking about as specific country market like UK?

[@jack-my8cf]

@@TobyNewbatt ““The number of listed companies worldwide has levelled off.”

[@jack-my8cf]

@@TobyNewbatt “the real concern is that investment returns are migrating from increasingly mature public capital markets to racier private markets”

[@TobyNewbatt]

@@jack-my8cf thats a quote from an FT article on the Norweigan sovereign wealth fund? Not sure how that's relevant at all here :) You are welcome to speculate and guess what you want to invest in...if its private you cant invest in it...i'd rather just stick to index funds thanks and use the market weight to play out over the long run. Dont be sold out by people whos job it is to tell you to do something differently...its all about total returns :). Guess who makes a lot of money in fees...active managers...guess who charges a lot for their amazing underperformance....hedge funds and private equity. Good luck :)

[@jack-my8cf]

@@TobyNewbatt thanks Toby, yes the underpinning of the article is about the SWF, just interesting to hear thoughts on potentially less publicly listed companies to invest via index funds in the future, and if so would you ever consider alternative investing. Alt investments could be an interesting topic. Appreciate your response though, I understand it probably doesn’t make an awful lot of difference. Thanks

[@almor2445]

Of course it's a bubble. It's insane. None of the Mag 7 deserve these valuations for different reasons. There will be a crash, the issue is when.

[@tommytinkler1708]

I am the lemonade version of Warren Buffet and I will keep buying.

[@EVil-ob8in]

Wow we’re supposed to feel euphoric about the stock market atm? ISA Return is still crap.

[@TobyNewbatt]

are you referring to a cash ISA? stocks have been doing great, cash will always perform poorly in the long term I'm afraid :)

[@EVil-ob8in]

@@TobyNewbatt No not a cash isa. Stocks and shares isa has performed so badly over the last 2 years, the growth in the last 4 or 5 months has restored net losses but little more. It wouldn’t take much of a dip to be back in negative growth numbers.

[@TobyNewbatt]

@@EVil-ob8in right I see. Anything can happen in the short term though 2 years is nothing. This is another reason to invest regularly in good times and bad times. You can’t ever get the long term returns if you don’t keep it up long term 👍

[@EVil-ob8in]

Yeh I know this and thanks for taking time to comment. The ISA I refer to has received monthly investments for 11 years now. I ramped them up in 2020 after the Covid dip which wiped out decent growth up to that time to be fair.

[@stevegeek]

Hi Toby. While I was working it was easy to DCA each month as I was paid. However I retired last year and moved my workplace pension into a SIPP as cash. I invested most of it right away and have seen nice growth, but I still have a chunk not really invested, currently in a money market fund making 5%. I am really reluctant to pump this into the market at this time. Any thoughts?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Depends! Personally I'd have 2-3 years of living expenses in retirement so I don't spend a single second worrying about the markets :)

[@stevegeek]

@@TobyNewbatt Thanks for the comment. Yes, that’s the plan, but I have more than this on the sidelines…nearly 10 years of living expenses. I’m thinking to gradually re-invest whenever the market dips a bit, maybe 3 or 4 %. I’ve set up some stock alerts to tell me when this happens. If only I had that Time Machine! 🤣

[@Cosmo38436]

Good video

[@TobyNewbatt]

Thanks

[@GavinLawrence747]

Mini henry ftw

[@timlodge8267]

Rita Coolidge.

[@TobyNewbatt]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/bXvVc6Bqa5iBqMk&ab_channel=ClayCulver Now thats an obsure reference Tim, but theres the song for everyone to enjoy :)

[@declanmcardle]

@3:10 Quaker Oats segment sponsored by $PEP?

[@TobyNewbatt]

they can get in touch anytime haha

[@raducoc]

10000% bubble.

[@TobyNewbatt]

Ok! I'll save the comment and lets see.

[@raducoc]

@@TobyNewbatt I'm not a market wizard but my impression is that the hedge-funds are desperate to push the stock market up. They will be able to do so up to a point, and like any cards castle, also this one will colaps. The higher the rise, the bigger the crash.

[@dodiloi]

This year the interest will come crashing down. Wait to see bubble then :)). Probably 40k nasdaq easy

[@TobyNewbatt]

I'll be looking forward to making my annual recap at the end of the year, going to be a fascinating one!

[@87vortex87]

Lol, yea, right. So currently average P/E is 20, with 2.6 times (growing to 40k), in ONE years the profits also have to grow 2.6x. Do you have any idea what that would do with inflation? The FED would have to raise interest rates to 20+% to cool down the economy. 40k for the NQ is based on nothing and an absolute fantasy.

[@rennenstal]

DCA TO THE… living room.

[@ChrisShawUK]

The thing that keeps me on track is the knowledge that I don't need all my portfolio for the next year's living expenses. So, even if the markets drop by 30%, and my cash reserve is drained to zero, I would only sell a slice sized at one year's expenses. In other words, it matters not one jot whether the market is all time high or 20 year low

[@declanmcardle]

"Even $TSLA is going up again" don't 'kin jinx it!

[@TobyNewbatt]

Sorry Declan...if it drops you can blame me :P

[@hustlinhitch]

Toby, any advice on cryptocurrency, like reliable platforms for UK residents, etc?

[@TobyNewbatt]

Maybe a future video as I do own some crypto and would like to help people without being some hypester!

[@mikerodent3164]

Time travel is NOT the solution: it has already been factored into the algorithms. The moment it is discovered is the moment YOU LOSE. (More accurately: "the moment it WAS discovered, in the future").

[@almor2445]

The averages and so on used in this video don't reflect the current markets in which the vast majority of gains have been in the mag 7. if you remove those 7 stocks the S+P500 has been falling.

[@TobyNewbatt]

The stock market has always had the most gains from the smallest number of companies 😀 Trying to find them is a losers game. Just index and chill 👍

[@almor2445]

I'd love to but the mag 7 are insanely over-valued and when they crash they will drag the S&P500 and NASDAQ down with them. I can live with the small amounts of interest on my cash and property and gold until there's a correction. You are right about no-one getting it perfect but I think I can do better than buying stocks with P/E ratios that high. I have had a great decade with many calls above and beyond the average returns but you're right about generally using an Index Fund. It has aged me 20 years, spending almost all my time fretting, researching or trading. I'm never relaxed, always on edge. It's not worth it. At some point soon, it will just be a diversified global portfolio for me too.

[@gobshite99]

AI is the bubble.

[@tyeng1295]

Stocks in a Bubble....... Checks absolute dogshit UK Market.........Same price it was 5 Years ago and down for the Year. God is there a single market in the world more painstakingly stagnant than the FTSE

[@TobyNewbatt]

North Korea?

[@tyeng1295]

@@TobyNewbatt Naaaaa! Kim Jong Un told me he’s personally made 300% annualized gains on the North Korean markets for 30 years……. He wouldn’t lie Haha

[@ChrisShawUK]

I just checked my l&g FTSE 100 Acc unit price and it's increased by 29% over the last 5 years since march 2019. RPI over the same period is 32% So it's just about maintaining spending power

[@tyeng1295]

@@ChrisShawUK So basicallly not worth the Equities risk premium

[@ChrisShawUK]

@@tyeng1295 well it all depends, those are just points in time. If the FTSE moves higher over the next few months and inflation stays low, then you'll have a different set of figures. My own investing has always been based on obtaining +2% above inflation over a fifty year period on average. Over the last 25 years, I've achieved about +3%pa (and mostly in the ftse100 over that period) so I'm not going to change my strategy.

[@squibys2262]

"Everyone is making money in the stock market" dont worry i can sort that, ill place a buy order and let the almighty crash ensue

[@TobyNewbatt]

hahahah it's always the way

[@brickchamp4199]

I know you're such a boring investor Toby - so boring!!! Haha. God forbid us if we ever make a few quid out index investing, eh?

[@TobyNewbatt]

😂