Israel edging towards collapse: MEMO in conversation with Sharmine Narwani

The occupation's reliance on swift, decisive wars have left it unprepared for the current genocide it is carrying out in Gaza. Military, economic and political spheres are showing signs of decline as a result. Can Israel survive after the war on Gaza?
Is Israel in a death spiral? That’s the question we will be discussing with our guest, Sharmine Narwani, a Beirut- and UK-based geopolitical analyst.
Narwani recently delivered a presentation at the American University of Beirut (AUB), entitled 'Asymmetrical Warfare: How to boil the Israeli frog', and gives us further insights into talk. Narwani utilises the 'boiling frog' analogy to shed light on Israel's ongoing challenges. She contends that, like the frog in the parable, Israel is gradually being overwhelmed by a range of pressures, edging towards collapse without fully recognising the severity of the situation. Our conversation examines how Israel’s historical reliance on swift, decisive wars has left it unprepared for the drawn-out nature of the current genocidal campaign in Gaza, with signs of decline evident in its military, economic, political and societal spheres.
We also discuss the impact of Israel's changing global image, the phenomenon of 'reverse aliyah' - the movement of Jews out of Israel, and the impact of shifting geopolitical dynamics on Israel's strategic options. Narwani's incisive analysis, backed by economic indicators and military data, paints a stark picture of a nation potentially trapped in an irreversible downward trajectory and to its own demise.
Narwani is a writer and analyst of West Asian geopolitics and a columnist at the Cradle. Her work has been published in a broad array of media outlets, including the American Conservative, Russia Today, the New York Times, USA Today, the Guardian, Al-Akhbar English, Assafir, Huffington Post, BRICS Post, Salon.com, Al Jazeera and others.

[@JohmScriv]

Israel's era of impunity is coming to an end.

[@davidalexander9873]

Thank you for bringing on Sharmin. One of the most insightful analysts on what is happening in the region. Israel is indeed on a downward spiral and is acting completely unhinged at this point

[@ravidlivne7317]

Sharmin's analysis is a joke. She's cherry picking numbers that support the narrative she's trying to push, while there are many others that proves her all thesis is flawed.

[@moviemakerjo6756]

​@@ravidlivne7317🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🤦🏾‍♂️

[@garyhoddinott9076]

@@ravidlivne7317 Most people, when making a point, pick numbers that support the point they are making. Your analysis of Sharmine's analysis, while not falling entirely under the definition of a joke, is somewhat oblivious to the norms of narrative pushing.

[@ravidlivne7317]

@@garyhoddinott9076 The point is that the numbers that Sharmin chooses are negligible and not really significant. What does it matter how many ships enter a port? If I wanted to claim that an economy is on a downward spiral, I would look at the growth figures, unemployment rate, stock market indices, exchange rate, inflation, etc. These key data unequivocally break her claims.

[@ravidlivne7317]

@@garyhoddinott9076 The claim that Israel's economy is collapsing is a ridiculous claim that is not supported by anything. True, a long war is not good for the economy, but the damage to Israel is small so far. Look at the Israeli stock market - it has risen close to 10% since the beginning of the war. The unemployment rate in Israel is about 3%. Is this what a crashing economy looks like?

[@faizaambah]

❤ Sharmine

[@ChefbyMistake]

Pager 📟

[@faizaambah]

@@ChefbyMistake What about a pager? Is that a full sentence?

[@ChefbyMistake]

@@faizaambah Israel tricked Hezbollah and 3000+ of their members either died or handicapped including several Iranians and Yemenis after their Pagers exploded in their Pants. 👖

[@MYTAccount]

*Sharmine Narwani is one the best analysts.* 👏👏👏

[@dafcarldotter3967]

I am loving this ❤ thank you so much! 🎉

[@aydilla85]

I love Sharmine! She's a ray of light 💫

[@moniruzzamankhan8218]

Hoping and praying. Thank you

[@Walter-x1j]

Pray harder, ass…

[@LAJINNN]

Always love Sharmain❤

[@dennisg8164]

A KZbin commentator made this very astute comment: "Israel is a "microcosm" of the usa." If the usa abandoned Israel it brings it's very legitimacy of it's existence into question

[@jimj2405]

The population of this colony has dual citizenships throughout Europe, they will leave .

[@calicocat8213]

Europe and the United States of America. You're however forgetting the so-called "Mizrahim", who now constitute the majority (Itamar Ben Gvir is one such) and do not hail from the above mentioned regions.

[@JohnSmith-ft4gc]

@@calicocat8213 Even if the Mizrahim don't leave of their own accord, Israel can't sustain their military losses. Israel will progressively evacuate what they can't defend. Every bit of attrition they sustain accelerates this process. As it accelerates, more will see the writing on the wall despite their indoctrination & they will do they will consciously choose to live or die.

[@ravidlivne7317]

That's only true for the older generations. Most Israelies who were actually born in Israel aren't eligible for another passport.

[@calicocat8213]

@@ravidlivne7317 An Israeli who can prove ancestral citizenship (grandparent) is eligible for an EU passport usually. Another way to obtain a second citizenship is "through investment" - actually buying a foreign passport. There are legal offices in Israel who arrange such "deals", naturally for a hefty fee. One such enterprise banned me from accessing their page after I posted it on X.

[@Tod-zt9jw]

Really Enjoyed your conversation thanks

[@-------------------DD]

Great interview thank you

[@seamusweber8298]

This is a very good analysis. The mindset of Israel and its complete lack of honest dealings with its regional neighbours is its undoing. If you're going to live in a neighbourhood it helps greatly to be on cordial terms at least with your neighbours.

[@thehungergames8918]

Sharmine 💕💕

[@EricFischer-k6y]

Very good analysis.

[@user-wz7sn2ud3z]

❤❤❤Sharmine Narwani = Legend🎉🎉🎉

[@shahinamukadam2233]

colonial apartheid cannot survive in the new world of information

[@OttoVanBismarckq80]

First time i see her. What an intelligent perceptive and eloquent person!

[@williamconklin5017]

Amazing, the human animals are boiling the frogs

[@bravewarrior1218]

Israel has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in the face of such challenges, suggesting that while the situation is dire, it is not necessarily indicative of imminent collapse. Israel was established as a country on May 14, 1948, making it 76 years old as of 2024. Regarding its current situation, Israel is facing significant challenges due to ongoing conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, alongside broader tensions with the so-called "axis of resistance," which includes Iran and its allied groups.

[@dennisg8164]

Sharmine rocks. ❤❤

[@gpakuach4994]

Israel will ended up like Rhodesia which is now called Zimbabwe.

[@clarkdavis5333]

Frogs are definitely smarter than humans.

[@moviemakerjo6756]

👍🏾🤣🤣🤣

[@moviemakerjo6756]

💚💚💚👍🏾

[@Yossarian1179]

I desperately hope so, but i fear not.

[@tonybanks1035]

i agree with you, it won't happen

[@mohamedhusanee8241]

Thanks, Free Palestine soon

[@annoyingannonymous3181]

It's not an organic country.

[@thenowornerverkid1]

Sometimes things go wrong when you try to boil the frog.

[@ravidlivne7317]

They've been boiling the frog since 1948. The frog only grows stronger.

[@RussellAlami]

Bible ( Matthew) : Herod , King of Judea , sent his Soldiers , to kill the little children ( The Massacre of the innocents )

[@genevievehermoso5577]

They created this... unfortunately at the expense of the Palestinians...

[@nkhoury1]

I really enjoyed this interview. However, I would like to make a friendly amendment to the thesis. Israel is most certainly in decline, but it is NOT collapsing. While it is true that Israel is a colonial-settler project, it is actually a strong state. It has systems that are far more developed than its neighbors. However, Israel has unravelled morally, and the importance of this cannot be overstated. Is has become a shrill, deranged state that is illogical and without a rudder. War, war, war without a real end point. That, to me is what will take Israel to decline.

[@pinxtownington4645]

Not in months of Sundays though

[@rafthejaf8789]

How sure are we that Israel actually killed Haniyeh? There is something about it and the silence that has followed that doesn't add up for me.

[@davidalexander9873]

Iran has acted very strategically by not being baited into an immediate war response. Israel is desperate to escalate into a regional war so it can have US and EU backing however Iran announcing a response but then not responding has cost Israel billions in daily protective measures in anticipation. Iran is smart not to respond when Israel is at peak readiness and expects it. They work on their own time lines.

[@rafthejaf8789]

@@davidalexander9873 Yes I know all that and I agree with you but I still feel there are things about the attack that are quite strange.

[@davidalexander9873]

@@rafthejaf8789 unlike Israel, Iran and the other resistance groups have sought to minimise civilian deaths so they have all been extremely measured in their responses. Someone needs to be the adult in the room to avoid complete annihilation of the region.

[@johnorona99]

​@@davidalexander9873 why not just post your own comment instead of responding with a reply thats unrelated (although correct) to the person you're replying to?

[@rafthejaf8789]

@@davidalexander9873 Yes I agree with you but back in April Iran did respond in a measured way that did not affect civilians. This time it has not responded at all.

[@NaymitMayne]

Because our people in Gaza are all getting killed and she is talking about cooking

[@andreskorge1828]

See Truth in Media re “ the Reckoning “

[@bellaferman]

Hello, I'm new to your channel. I'd like to dispute your statement that Israel is "Edging towards collapse" That is quite impossible because not only the USA, but the UK, and most if not all of Europe funds Israel on an ongoing basis, so there can be no " Collapse" whatsoever.

[@WAM-m3i]

Is that sustainable? I am not so sure.

[@dafcarldotter3967]

I sure hope they leave this time for ever. Back to their white supremacist home.

[@Ladadeedeedee]

When people are 1 fleeing the country 2 are against their goverment 3 war ptst/missing limbs 4 economy is doing bad 5 the majority of the world is against their terrorist war crimes and last but not least: 6 a country existing out of non-natives where the natives are basicly slaves (i left out the manipulation deception arrogance lies and so on and so fort for the whole world to see). These are things no amount of money can repair.

[@ravidlivne7317]

Meanwhile Hamas had collapsed, Hezbollah is collapsing right before our eyes, while Israel suffered little damage. But all those internet folks can write whatever they want.

[@Walter-x1j]

For 76 years you are saying that Israel is on path to collapse…. But you are losing and losing….

[@Addy-745]

That's actually not true there has never been this kind of resistance a eye opener to realities truly a water shed moment the world over like this before.

[@jollylollypop1]

Itsnotreal HAS been on the path of collapse since they bribed Harry Truman to approve this ill-advised ethnostate.

[@dafcarldotter3967]

Oh no. Their time is up! Free the middle east from white supremacists 🎉 ✊️💯

[@dafcarldotter3967]

​@@Addy-745and I am very hopeful

[@ravidlivne7317]

​@@Addy-745 the Egyptian and Syrian armies are "slightly" more resilient than present day militias. The resistance today can't conquer an inch of Israeli land.

[@Walter-x1j]

Sharmine Narwani may not survive the coming war… so much for her “theories”. Look at Gaza now…. Lebanon fate will be much worse….

[@moviemakerjo6756]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@Walter-x1j]

@@moviemakerjo6756 is your finger trembled on keyboard… ?

[@Walter-x1j]

“ Resistance axis”.. resistance to Israel’s existence….

[@miatand1156]

Lost it's right and support to exist. HELLO anybody home?

[@moviemakerjo6756]

what boarders dose telaviv have, none! it is no state and will leave as it began....😔

[@Walter-x1j]

@@miatand1156 “Hello, anybody home?” Mia Tand stuck out her head into door and…. Something sharp and heavy fell on her neck separating her head from the rest of the body… Mia dropped dead…. The end.

[@Walter-x1j]

@@moviemakerjo6756 yea.. your ilk is mumbling this for 76 years… and will mumbling for the next 2000 years…🤣🤣🤣🇮🇱🇮🇱🇮🇱

[@Walter-x1j]

Sha4mine is lying like breathing…. And what if your predictions turn out to be false? Are you going to resign?

[@ShalomMF]

The egyptians, babylonians, persians, crusaders, ottomans, british, germans and arabs all drew the same conclusion as your interviewee and yet israel survives and thrives....you might want to ask yourself if youre on the wrong side of history ?

[@dafcarldotter3967]

Haha... Israel is everything wrong with the world.

[@calicocat8213]

Thrives? Wouldn't be that sure, what with the collapsing economy and the huge emigration - even BEFORE any "7 October".

[@ravidlivne7317]

​@@calicocat8213 the Israeli economy is stable and there's no mass immigration.

[@moviemakerjo6756]

​@@ravidlivne7317🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣ask imf!....the official statistics tell it as a collapse.....bye bye🖕🏾

[@calicocat8213]

@@ravidlivne7317 You'll be surprised, then. Besides, unlearned Zvi Migdal progeny, "immigration" means coming INTO a country, while EMIGRATION leaving it LOL.

[@Walter-x1j]

Sharmine is blowing in her hate for the Jewish state…. Looks like she is trying to convince herself in her verbal equilibrium… She is drunk with her hate…. It will be interesting to see her fate after Israel struck Lebanon…

[@1234bbruce]

You are spot on .I enjoy reading your comments because you understand that the Jews are God's chosen people and he will protect Israel forever against the evil Arabs the only want the destruction of Israel.

[@1234bbruce]

God's chosen people

[@calicocat8213]

Israel is not a "Jewish State" by any stretch of imagination. It's a Zionist settler-colonial, expansionist project. Go back and read Vladimir "Ze'ev" Jabotinsky's "Iron Wall", first published in Russian (translations available in many languages) back in 1923. It - the "State" you have in mind - in no way represents world's Jewry, starting with the late Marek Edelman, hero of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising.

[@moviemakerjo6756]

no, the so called state has no boarders which makes it a pariah! and land theft is illegal, that strategy is at an end and M2-3 who have left telaviv prove that.

[@pkia898]

Hahahahahahahaha Ridiculous

[@giovannidicapo6213]

I hate that analogy "boil the frog".

[@NaymitMayne]

Because our people in Gaza are all getting killed and she is talking about cooking

[@davidalexander9873]

Yes but it's an accurate description of the resistance movement as they are not indulging Israel's provocations into a hard and fast war.

[@Walter-x1j]

@@davidalexander9873 Fool…. It is coming…