It’s Another Fine Mess... With Tarric Brooker!

Our latest Friday Afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we look at the current data, which questions potential rate cuts, and housing trends, as demand stays strong while supply is limited.
Below the water line we examine some of the underlying assumptions behind the numbers, and how politics have changed.
Worse, the structural issues can be traced back to a series of political decisions, which were policy errors - when will they come clean?
Tarric's charts are here: avidcom.substa... if you want to follow along.
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[@awolffromamongus875]

Tarric and Martin. You guys always deliver. Thanks for another clear-eyed conversation.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks for listening

[@mimo5383]

By myself in a 6 bedroom in the eastern sub's. Nothing to downsize to in Sydney and no confidence to build given quality, red tape and lead times. I believe the appropriate term is a complete cluster.

[@Bobafe77a]

Tarric and Martin, thank you! Your conversations articulate a lot of what I'm thinking. It's good to know I'm not going nuts.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Our pleasure!

[@tonyneville4425]

"When all else fails they take you to war" Gerald Celente

[@leonie563]

WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.... THEY.... TAKE.... YOU..... TO..... WAAAAAAARRRRRRR! That's how he says it! Dripping emphasis. I think that was on the Danielle Carbone Show. He and Mark Faber are like props from Bond. But you can't not listen. Forgot one, Fink.

[@Đờimitry]

USA been coercing their puppets and lackeys to war ages ago. They have been fermenting and using Ukraine as proxy to provoke Russia way before in 2014 before Russia made their moves. USA is interfering into Taiwan which they themselves don't recognize Taiwan as an independent state.

[@VC9224]

The sooner people in this country realise its been an extremely poorly run country for decades which has squandered every leg up it had, the quicker the 2 majors will be run out of town forever

[@GoldFinch-jt1rx]

P⁰

[@GoldFinch-jt1rx]

P⁰

[@sienzuf]

They are telling you what needs to be done. To build back better you need to first drop the old house to build a new one. They need to bring things down (and the reason why you keep saying "My mind boggles") it's a policy. It's a world policy that they are following. It's so clear to see, it all makes totally clear sense to me. You guys are smart and you analyse the data and it makes no sense, so then you have to start to think in another way. Ask yourself, are they doing this on purpose? Great show guys.

[@IvanChristopher.]

Of course they are doing it on purpose. Controlled demolition but so many just refuse to believe it!

[@nicolle_2944]

100% agree with you. Data only tells on part of the story. It's all done on purpose

[@serena-yu]

A rate cut isn't going to make houses cheaper to buy. People will bid the market up until it reaches their borrowing capacity again.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Exactly! Now can you get this message to 7News, 9News, 10 eyewitness news! And get this message out to morning TV also.

[@Zilron38]

Spot on. I don't even know if people understand that a 1 million dollar loan at 0% interest rate is far more difficult to pay off than a 200k loan at 10% interest rate. We are better of with higher rates and low prices than lower rates and higher prices.

[@grizzz6884]

@@Zilron38 and the more your total repayment is , the more you have to earn , meaning you pay a lot more tax

[@Zilron38]

@@grizzz6884 Yup, and stamp duty and land tax is also more. So it's in the governments best interest to get house prices as high as possible because they get more money that way... funny how we have a system that rewards the government for hurting the people. This is why I think things will just get worse.

[@magsgil8181]

Always love it when Tarric comes on. Thankyou Martin for your fab videos.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Glad you like them!

[@jcisme]

Government is best summed up by this Thomas Sowell quote "Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today's problems are a result of yesterday's solutions."

[@neilmccoy9390]

I, a retired single man, am unable to downsize, even if I wanted to. 1. I don't earn enough to get a home loan of any size, so I would have to sell my home first. 2. Then I would be facing the double whammy of both being unlikely to find a rental and unlikely to buy a house in a desirable location.

[@berniestar1490]

Bring in some 20 something girls to share the costs. You never know your luck.

[@denistrethewy7288]

Nothing will change in Australia until the 2 party system is voted out. SO get used to your standard of living declining.

[@Discovery2024-rn8kn]

Who's the third option?

[@eromnaliuqyaj6288]

Nationals?

[@blakedenton8247]

Friday night sorted🎉😊

[@brianarps8756]

It is very odd to see that most commentators can no longer accurately distinguish the problems from the solutions. This is because we can no longer contemplate a balanced economy. Instead, we are obsessed with choosing between the crisis’ that we cannot solve. Higher interest rates are the solution to inflation because they add to the value of money, which reduces waste and increases the importance of short-term liquidity. Current interest rates are seen as a problem because they have increased recently from near zero. The reduction from normal levels of interest to zero interest solved nothing. But low interest rate did made it possible to avoid solving the problem of low wages and inflation of housing costs. That option no longer exists. Markets are all in a state of near collapse. Financial markets most of all. Inflation in the housing market and the share market were the problems that no-one wanted to fix. Inflation in wages and retail prices are the only alternatives to a collapse in the housing and share markets if the economy is to come back into balance. It follows that the latter is the solution to the former. Inflation is also the least costly solution to the problem of excessive debt. No other solution to the enormous levels of debt is being considered, because solutions do not exist. The US taxpayer is not up to the task of repaying the current $45 Trillion debt plus interest in a normal lifetime. The current crop of political leaders in the western world naturally has no solution to the problems that cannot be solved.

[@SCplayer1000]

How do you fix a game of musical chairs so there's no loosers?

[@brianarps8756]

@@SCplayer1000 Remove the music and hang on.

[@cind_errs]

Spot on. It’s like trying to use a teaspoon to bail out water from a boat with holes sailing in the ocean. For a minute it may slow the pace of water rushing in but after a minute or so it’s going to sink. I don’t think they can fix this for a long time and without serious consequences to societies fabric. Australia will unfortunately see more unrest and upheaval with break and enters, the start of squatting, more homelessness and tent cities and anger towards politicians, property investors, immigrants and the haves. There is a lot of talking about how to fix it from politicians and economists with little action and follow through.

[@briannewman6216]

The number of migrants currently entering Australia is off the charts. Who voted for this?

[@info88w11]

WEF

[@kelvinjames6344]

Worldwide adgenda Only immigrants can improve Lithgow and penrith and whalan and mt druitt and airds Blame the Immigrants while the real villians get away

[@Andre_XX]

Both major parties favour high immigration, so my guess is that YOU voted for it.

[@deejay8ch]

Global elites who want to dilute and destroy middle-class lifestyles and values, because (a) middle-class westerners are potentially the most non-compliant and effective resistance to their nonsense and (b) middle Australia isn't reproducing anywhere near enough for replacement, so it's just deserts, as they've essentially asked for randoms to make up the shortfall, which of course merely serves to compound the impact on services, infrastructure and quality of life. 'Import-a-rabble' is here until we get enough non-major party alternatives in federal parliament who can do something about it*. *expect rigged elections before then to prevent that.

[@leonie563]

The FTAs with China and India were proposed and signed in current a and previous government's and had unlimited migration inside it. That sits outside the Budget forecasts. Assume we get sued if we changed those FTAs....someone has to work to pay for 45-75 year olds to get negative gearing and tax free superannuation and bulk billed Medicare or Private Health Insurance surgery lists...guess who pays? Migrants...so 🚰 is well and truly pouring. Something is going to give. I predict some serious reform around Working Age and Post Retirement clawbacks of incentives accruing in those households....

[@hew7344]

Thanks guys, as always great conversation. It saddens me that we'll never have someone like Martin or Tarric, i.e. someone with a brain, in politics.

[@anthony.clarity]

When talking about the FED and what they're doing with rates, look beyond the inflation talk. There is a lot more going in in the financial war between the ECB (The DAVOS crowd) and the FED. JP will not let the old Europeans damage the FED. The longer he holds rates higher, or even increases, the more damage that can be done to Europe. Just look at the manipulation that happens every Friday afternoon leading up to the close in USD and UST vs EUR and Bunds.

[@haroldgrey134]

We went through this a few months ago. There's no inflationary shift. It's just another oil shock as OPEC+ do cuts to spike the price. But these price spikes only harm demand. Then things grind lower and oil falls again. So OPEC+ then mull another production cut. The world economy is synchronised. Everybody is slowing. These are just blips on the way down.

[@serena-yu]

My landlord packs 6 migrants into a 2-bedroom house. They are working as construction workers in west Sydney. What apartments would you expect built on top of modern slavery?

[@scottmurphy2995]

Australia has morphed into the Middle East

[@leonie563]

Keep looking, you will find something other than roach hotels. Australia does have some nice people left. Enjoy it when you can.

[@alexwest4629]

By builders you mean cheap labourers right?

[@serena-yu]

@@alexwest4629 yes. edited into construction workers

[@richarddobosz6174]

Very good presentation thank you compulsory listening

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

So nice of you

[@redsed1565]

The Royal Registry de Jure avoids you paying any Gov taxes, fines, rates, tolls and more!

[@fionaD5225]

oh I've been waiting for this to drop 😍 should be an interesting one!!!

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Hope you like it!

[@timw6921]

Hi Martin and Tarric. Long Time listener first time commenter. In fact I was your 400th subscriber. Years of listening and I love what Tarric has to say. But......in the nicest possibly way can Tarric please stop saying "you know"? All the best.

[@daverei1211]

I’ve heard that 1/4 people are on the NDIS, so I wonder if some of these were the long term unemployed? If so then the unemployment figure is not measured the same as it was pre-NDIS so unrealisticly lower than reality… then we use this to determine interest rates?

[@Jake.steve3658]

Interest rates need to go higher he in Australia. Expect 9% average. Long term inflation is the problem.

[@GayleMillican]

I was always under the impression that the government of the day a public servants, therefore, they should be doing the Will of the people not have other countries deciding our future. I would have got to start demanding that the government listen to the people. Do the masses realise that we have the power, to change the policies of this country? To party preferred is a whole lot of rubbish and it’s time we started voting for more in dependants and stop following the party political layout. What we need is a statesman or woman who has the vision far into the future. All our politicians do is appease the banks and big business, hoping that they will have another term in office. 😢😢😢 it’s so sad. Seeing this beautiful country going down the Chute.

[@Andre_XX]

If inflation was what the "official number" says, there would not be nearly as many people in financial stress as there actually is.

[@kyliepechler]

Most people know the official figures on things have not truly represented what is actually going on in reality, for a long time now. It's pretty depressing to see how the CPI was calculated in 1980's, compared to how the CPI is calculated now, together on a graph.

[@Andre_XX]

@@kyliepechler Or to put it bluntly, they lie to us and we are too passive to do anything about it.

[@h7qvi]

AUD going to plummet to 50c when Simandou iron ore mine gets going soon

[@info88w11]

China will cut off Australia iron ore imports to break the dependency in a flash as soon as possible...

[@info88w11]

Hoping the African's nationalize Simandou and extract super profits from China and form a cartel with Oz to exploit China

[@bernadettebecher4689]

"Two cheeks of the same bum!" Lol- love it. So true!

[@micksc1]

Does Albo have a knife in his back with regards to immigration? This makes no sense.

[@bradg7701]

Yes, and not even a block on foreign property buyers. Just no idea. It's like he's aiming to lose the next election.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Yeah I don't get it. Although, it's clear when I notice the economy around Brisbane, that many people are doing very well indeed. 20% would be having an awful time of it. But maybe this is the idea? Sacrifice 20% for 60% to do well? Or perhaps taking orders from the likes of UN, WEF, WHO etc.

[@chrimbus71]

He has no clue, he is quite thick for a PM

[@glennrevell9870]

Current high immigration is a deliberate policy. The reason is so unbelievable that if I told you why, you would not believe it.

[@williamcrossan9333]

@@glennrevell9870 I'm happy to hear the reason. I'm wondering if it's to: 1. Boost headline GDP 2. Employer groups demand it 3. The property market is on a precipice 4. Certain global entities have determined behind closed doors, that other countries have exceeded their carrying capacity, and an 'evacuation' is essentially taking place.

[@robbarnett6530]

Hi Martin, has there been a deliberate strategy to change the chats with Tarric? If you look back a year or so ago & compare the content with recent editions there is a significant difference. I must admit I miss the global macro economic snap shot of the world from an Aussie perspective. I realise that the commentary regarding the housing market is very topical for many viewers but I think that you already cover this material on many of your other posts. The historic content provided by Tarric was accretive to your other material. Nevertheless I appreciate the content that you provide on this channel. Best regards, Rob

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

No deliberate strategy, though TB has been looking deeply at the housing issue, so no surprise his charts reflect that - there were many macro elements in the latest show though...

[@mountainman9145]

You guys look like you are conducting your discussion under candle light. Perhaps minimizing your carbon footprint.

[@kelvinjames6344]

Lol

[@SCplayer1000]

😂

[@kerrimackay521]

@39:30 Sure construction costs per home are higher with high rise buildings compared to detached houses but affordability would be much improved if the land cost for high rise apartments was better managed. Body Corporate changes have also been recently exposed as open to widespread profiteering which also needs to be better regulated.

[@peterwakemanfreespeech]

Nuclear subs instead of housing?

[@Discovery2024-rn8kn]

Congrats, we're not part of military industrial complex network

[@dxer22000]

I know there's a lot of migrant dumping happening. Two guys here from PNG, not working but on welfare, taking up a flat that could have been rented to a local & look like they don't want to be here. Gonna be cold for them when winter comes!

[@laszlon.4424]

Great Vlog boys, factors affecting house prices relate to artificially scarce land availability, government red tape, local state federal taxation, overly complex council rules and regulations, lack of standardisation in housing ( the cost of construction could be dramatically reduced if all doors & windows had to be a minimum default size), can't wait until they introduce a carbon tax as construction is imbued with infinitely high levels of carbon. Cost of aluminium glass concrete costs will explode.

[@johnoneill1011]

The decline in turnover of housing stock is logical. As average prices have risen, so has the cost of transacting. Not least stamp duties, that like the tax system, increase non-linearly with selling price. For us, why spend $5m to buy a better home, when stamp duty in NSW alone approaches $300k? Worse, why trigger CGT by moving from our current home which we rented out for longer than we have lived in it. There goes another $500k in CGT on $2.2m in capital gains. Combine that with fees for marketing and selling and relocation costs and our total cost to move might be $900k. No thanks, we will stay here for another 20 years, gradually reducing the CGT exposure. Tough luck for the family that might have $3m to buy it from us and wants to live in a better suburb than they currently do.

[@carolyngartner6865]

Excellent commentary guys!

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thank you kindly!

[@dylanreinboth9577]

29:24 how do you compare unit to freestanding?

[@neilmccoy9390]

A multi-decade 'Better Quality Child Care' policy reduced the children per staff maximum ratio from 8 in the 1990s to 6, then to 4 currently. So the # of child carers needed to double. Nothing was done to manage the resources to facilitate this ( Just like the situation in Aged Care).

[@denistrethewy7288]

Inflation best way to establish the rate is take the government rate and double it . This will give you the most accurate rate of inflation. 😮

[@VC9224]

When are we going to realise that the biggest issue stopping people downsizing is stamp duty?

[@nicolle_2944]

That's one issue of several. There is hardly any properties for sale is pretty major. Some need the property for their offspring and grandchildren. Some might just want to stay

[@helenharris4000]

Thanks guys !!!

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Our pleasure!

[@Đờimitry]

So China is "dumping its goods" which is deflation force for the world's economy is bad while USA export their inflation, debt bonds bombs and war is good? So if GDP per capita of USA is so " high" why aint Australia enjoying anything from USA and increasing their living standards and decrease inflation? Yellen lady from a declining economy went over to China to beg for money and just to try and lecture others when they cant compete and just use protectionism and tariffs which only hurts average American more. Maybe Australia should pickup the slack and buy USA debt treasury bonds? After all Australia is USA lackeys.

[@williamcrossan9333]

38:15: Transaction volumes have fallen, but it doesn't look as bad as I expected it would. Current stock on market is very low. Perhaps housing are just selling quicker? In any case, transaction volumes alone, don't explain why prices had risen so much. The next graph with Sydney: From the 2017 to 2019 period, prices were weak and falling. During the current period of transaction volume weakness, prices are rising fast.

[@moeuramo]

Peter Zeihan has been saying that as the baby boomers in the USA retire they will take their capital and take it out of lending and into bonds . The first half retired in the last 5 years which causes the first long rate increases and the second lot will retire in the next 5 years and this will cause rates to double again in his opinion. So eta of cheap money is over . Anyway it will be interesting to see what happens but anyway you look at it most mortgages are basically unaffordable for Australians

[@nicolle_2944]

The Boomer generation is over 2 decades. The older ones started retiring 15 years ago.

[@moeuramo]

Not quite accurate 3 decades for the boomers , the baby boomer’s are made up Of two groups the baby boomers .1st group is born 1946-1954 who are currently 70-78 and boomers two or generation jones who are born 1955-1964 who are currently 60-69. The reason they are broken into two groups is because that generation is just so high and completely eclipse generation X . Perhaps you are thinking of the silent generation who is aged 79-96 ? Born between 1928-1945Anyway I hope This information assist in helping understand the point that Peter zehian was taking about .

[@nicolle_2944]

@@moeuramo the unaffordable mortgages have little to with the boomers in Australia, and everything to do with foreign demand. Interest rates should never have gone down in the first place. And they will rise further.

[@Rhcpbedders]

Gold $2400USD, $3700AUD. We’re fkt

[@antpoo]

Yep

[@steve.e7995]

Yes! Confidence in bankster fiat confetti is waning, momentum change emerging ? Quite possibly

[@graemebushell7531]

We'll get our own Trump (or Milei), if things keep heading the way they are.

[@mohitraghavnz]

Free standing house with few inches between neighbour walls!

[@chrisruss9861]

No mention of the high wages union grip on construction? I have the impression many overseas countries use cheap migrant labour, for better or for worse.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Indeed, that is an issue. There's not a free market of labour in many building sites. Plenty of young guys would love a job paying 120K a year. The unions set the wages at 180 to 200K plus in many cases. But it's hard to get those jobs.

[@Ralph_Baric_PhD_C2019]

and.... the asbestos spreads into victoria like a NSW delivery guy with COVID.

[@socratesdancing]

'you get more subsidies, you get more subsidies, you get more subsidies' Hoperah-nese climate-nomics

[@moeuramo]

Interesting to see the new “fallout” show which illustrates the point of experimentation in “fallout” shelters is similar to how different cities in the western world exhibit similar “experimentation” in our western countries and cities . Just an observation

[@micholfisher9683]

Respect to two smart eloquent chaps ... On the money ... Why aren't you running central banks or the government chaps?

[@micholfisher9683]

Aren't central bankers supposed to be part of the solution (not the problem) too?

[@dan2304]

The economists that populate both banks and government have little understanding of science particularly the geology of commodities especially fossil fuels that supply 84% of global energy. The real economy is driven by energy and commodities. Many industrial metals and minerals and especially energy are iin declining global production. Due to depleting reserves and very few new and only small discoveries. Analists with better access to data say that the supply/demand for global energy will tighten for the foreseeable future with crunch of supply shortage about the end of this decade.

[@SCplayer1000]

I'm of the opinion you can tie it all to energy & peek oil.

[@dan2304]

@@SCplayer1000 Absolutely. Oil is the commodity that allows all other commodities to be produced and delivered. As such it is the real currency of the economy and is going away rapidly without replacement.

[@brucewayne3633]

Direct Democratic models such as AGI-Civitas improve efficiency and remove much corrupt political involvement... eventually delivering a fairer post scarcity economy... Whereas the current system will just keep failing us...

[@jetplane10]

Hello guys 🫠

[@cooki_boy]

Tarric doing video from his jail cell 🤯🤯🤯🤯

[@bradg7701]

Good show. Can you make a comment sometime about buying an investment in order to get into the property market. You and other suggest it's not so good. Why?

[@bunyip5841]

I would never ever live in an apartment because of the issues Martin and Tarric described. Australia really needs to lift building standards and enforce them.

[@nicolle_2944]

We need to stop the foreign demand and then we don't need to live in stack n packs.

[@glencoveney6145]

Love your breath of history.,ie ancient Rome

[@ChasingMidnight001]

BAH! Until the majority of citizens fully understand migration has to happen to meet the policy outcomes of the WEF and WHO the housing market will continue to be a car crash for anyone who isn't already in the market + tent cities will reign. These organisations have a policy on equalisation between countries, hence the mass migration/illegal migration being supported. Good point re quality of life of the migrants. I'd like to go to Australia from NZ but I also want to live in something that doesn't resemble a tent.

[@rosella3966]

I am a six-figure earning millennial in my mid 30s. My accountant (late 30s) told me until I am earning $200K per year that I should consider myself as part of the working poor. He was not wrong. Can we also talk about the fact that the AUD is fast turning into the Mexican Peso?

[@alexwest4629]

lol, get a new accountant.

[@articrum]

One Nation is the third party you're talking about. Get over your wokeness

[@eromnaliuqyaj6288]

Their votes go to labor 🤯😭

[@crapmalls]

Zatz anozer fine mess youve gotus into!

[@info88w11]

Albogreasy

[@peterburke8650]

The target inflation rate was always 0 to 1 percent. They changed there numbers. The target inflation rate is 0 to 1 percent.

[@kelvinjames6344]

Sell public housing house to people use the money to build apartments 100 metres in the air like every other country

[@jcisme]

Tarric for PM !

[@nicolle_2944]

He is not old enough to have experienced life before all this bs. And forgets that data is part of the story, not all of it.

[@chmoss6310]

🇦🇺🙏👍

[@wooloongabba]

Doomers

[@chrimbus71]

At least oz is egalitarian and doesnt have a class system

[@Discovery2024-rn8kn]

Are you sure?

[@chrimbus71]

@@Discovery2024-rn8kn I was joking