It's Official: Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk | April 23, 2024 | Kentucky Derby Preview Part 1

[@Mark-y5m5v]

Fierceness is expected to use his superior speed to telling effect in the KD. I am still struggling to agree with this prediction. In the interest of full disclosure, I harbor no dislike for Fierceness that would in any way inhibit my capacity to concur a majority opinion. Below is an example of what inhibits my concurrence: Fractions for the first 3 panels in Just A Touch 3 starts: MSW------ 22.45; 46.10; 1:10.53 - Equibase -100 Gotham - 23.42; 46.63; 1:10.94- Equibase - 95 B/Grass - 23.15; 46.48; 1:10.83- Equibase -105Fractions for the first 3 panels in Fierceness last 3 starts: BCJ-------- 23.25; 47.02; 1:10.86- Equibase -110 H/Bull ---- 25.03; 50.53; 1:14.25- Equibase -90 FL Derby- 24.07; 47.50; 1:11.31- Equibase -110 If Fierceness was substituted with Just A Touch in the FL Derby and JAT had the luxury of recording fractions of 2.07 .47.50 ;1:11.31, by how many lengths would the Brad Cox trainee have won? Which of the two has been facing more formidable opponents? Just A Touch raced an average of 2 lengths off the leader in his races. Based on the comparable factions above, Just A Touch is a consistently faster colt than Fierceness over 6F. Big Beyers and minus TG numbers seems to be the driver of Fierceness' status as being superior in the speed department. On the subject of speed figures. The fractions in the Gotham were 2 to 4 seconds faster than the Holy Bull. Yet, Fierceness was assigned an Equibase 90 for 3rd and JAT 95 for 2nd. The aforementioned doesn't compute. If speed figures and TG numbers are the hills on which many are prepared to meet their demise. It is my hope that it's painless.

[@DavidHamburg-i5d]

Surprised and relieved by your rating Resilience third in your list, JP. I like him, and Stronghold, along with Sierra Leone. A nice Oaks/Derby Mott double of Just FYI/Resilience would be nice. (Zig-zag pattern for Fierceness notable. Due for a zag). But who knows? It’s the Derby.

[@DavidHamburg-i5d]

@@NM-ro5nf Don’t like as much as, say, Catching Freedom, who should have plenty left down the stretch. Catching Freedom would make a nice exacta with Resilience, Stronghold, or Sierra Leone. Can’t put my finger on why I don’t like Just a Touch as much. But really, what do I know?

[@JWCFB]

These guys are awesome.

[@winstonwinston8162]

Sierra Leonne should be tough..but Endlessly, Just a touch, Mystik Dan, Honor Marie.. Superfecta Possibilities closing inside and midtrack..but remember WEATHER is King to determine more than pace..if its wet roll Dice.

[@DiscipleofHim]

Play your gut or instinct choice along with the two favorites. There all good bets before the race. There is only one good bet after the race. For the record, I am using Sierra 1-4 in a Super with ten others and Fierceness in a High Five 1-3 with seven others. Win some money !

[@ianchefking5416]

You Guys And The Public Really Got This One Wrong! On Sierra Leone, He Can’t Even Make My 3rd Choice

[@YouDontKnow-that]

So you have the answers?

[@Kevin-v3b]

I guess we'll see

[@DiscipleofHim]

Time will tell. He is on all my tickets.

[@ianchefking5416]

@@NM-ro5nf neither will Fierceness…who only run back to his 2yos form and yet to move forward he’s 5 to 10 lengths better, Pletcher won the derby with much less

[@nicktecle2959]

How could you rate Resilience #3 who beat Society Man by only one and half length and passed by several length on a gallop out by SM.

[@georgepimentel3072]

ASK THE TRAINER...IN MY LIFE I HAVE SEEN SPEED BALLS CHANGE TO RATE THEIR SPEED AND WING LONG DISTANCE RACES THANKS TO THEIR TRAINER.

[@vernonfrance2974]

Need to toss the Santa Anita Derby winner. Was all out to win and still could only muster an 89 Beyers. Gaffalione is a South Florida based jockey who had a bad fall this March. He's an inexperienced jockey in the Derby. D'Amato is primarily a turf horse trainer who has never trained a horse in the Derby. Also need to toss the Tampa Bay winner. Glacial early pace yet he could only muster an 82 Beyers. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz may use horse to try to set up his better entry Sierra Leone. In the process he will hurt the speed and set it up for the late runners like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. Dornoch out finished Sierra Leone in the Remsen. Sierra Leone seems to back down when looked in the eye. Looks like Dornoch is maturing and will hit his best stride in Kentucky. The Risen Star was an aberration being run on a wet track. Sierra Leone crowded Chasing Freedom in to Resilience knocking him off stride. This made his win look impressive but there could have been an inquiry. Catching Freedom is kind of like Sierra Leone except has not backed out of it when headed like Sierra Leone did against Dornoch. He has won the Louisiana Derby the longest race leading up to the Derby. The Risen Star was an aberration being run on a wet track. Sierra Leone crowded Chasing Freedom in to Resilience knocking him off stride. This made Sierra Leone's Risen Star win look impressive but there could have been an inquiry. Was all out to beat Just a Touch who had had only two races prior to the Blue Grass. Sierra Leone caused trouble loading for the Blue Grass and is overrated. Fierceness in a good race, bad race pattern. Is due for a bad one. His Florida Derby was without pressure because he got an easy lead and was not challenged thereafter. He cannot stand up to crowding or being sandwiched which will be very likely in the Derby. Two favorites who will be lucky to hit the Superfecta.

[@georgepimentel3072]

YOU'RE WRONG...THE PREP RACES YOU DON'T HAVE TO BURN THE TRACK WINNING. THE BULLS EYE IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY. IF I'M GAFFION (SPELLING) AND I WIN WITH AN 89 BEYER I'M HAPPY AS HELL BECAUSE I DIDN'T HAVE TO USE ALL THE MOJO THE HORSE HAS. LIKE MAGE LAST YEAR SAEZ TOOK HIS FOOT OFF THE ACCELERATOR WHEN HE WAS ABOUT TO WIN THE FLORIDA DERBY AND LET THE FAVORITE WIN. HE SAVED MAGE MOJO FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY. THEN CASTELLANO TOOK OVER TO WIN HIS FIRST KENTUCKY DERBY AND YOU CAN GO BACK AND WATCH THE VIDEO HOW MAGE WAS FULL OF RUN IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. THAT'S TRAINING. AND JOCKEYS RIDE HURT GAFFION IS A MACHO MAN LIKE PINCAY USED TO RIDE WITH ALL KIND OF BROKEN BONES...THEY DON'T LIKE TO LOSE GREAT HORSES MOUNTS. PINCAY LOST AFFIRMED TO THE GREAT APPRENTICE OF THAT TIME BECAUSE HE DIDN'T WANT TO GO TO NEW YORK TO RIDE AFFIRM. THEN HE SAW CAUTHEN THE APPRENTICE WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN WITH AFFIRM.

[@chrischester7465]

Society Man outworked Dornoch in my eyes . Bad news for Dornoch

[@roshankuriakose7403]

Frankie Dettori will ride society man

[@carlellis7662]

Why just a touch can’t go the distance ? Jeff

[@lovemebaby1972]

Track phantom ❤

[@LABoyko]

Honor Marie #12? Really?

[@garthreid5088]

Society Man will be ridden by Frankie Dettori.

[@donimarshall3158]

Champions, Fierceness Is Gonna Win The Triple Crown,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰

[@georgepimentel3072]

FOREVER YOUNG DOESN'T LIKE DIRT HITTING HIM THEN HE SHOULD RUN ON TURF RACES ONLY.

[@RalphDuncan-kr4xu]

He won 4 derby Johnny Animal kingdom

[@anthonycgardner7774]

Disqualification does not count . It's 3

[@donimarshall3158]

They Have Sonny Leon The Kentucky Derby So Why Not Give Him A Mount In The Kentucky Derby He Won And You All Showered Him With Unnecessary Praises When He Was Handed The Kentucky Derby, And What’s So Funny None Of The Top Ten Trainers In America Hired Sonny Leon After Winning The Kentucky Derby So-Called Spectacular ,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,

[@James-e3m4x]

Lucas has what I call real race horses you can race them,some of these horses are so fragile it like they can run 3 to 6 races in their lifetime and go to the stud barn know wonder we have so many break downs.

[@charlesbadrock]

Correct pre derby workouts are way over hyped usually the pre derby wise guy horses usually underform here's this year's derby My top 3 horses CF JAT SL CF is my win horse but SL very dangerous legit threat and JAT who I see in front turning for home may hang on I'll box those 3 in exotics and have CF Win the Fla derby winner is a toss for me and he'll be the chalk sorry Mike I have to toss your horse

[@larrychrisentery6671]

I agree

[@nicktecle2959]

You guys are a joke. First you liked Carbon and Liberal Arts. Now you like Strong Hold whose last 3 furlong is 39 seconds and you don't like Catching Freedom. And Honer Mary isn't even your top 10?Sorry I wasted my time. You costed me one hour.

[@YouDontKnow-that]

Then you give us the answers and save us all time, since you say you have the answers. Ready. Go.

[@DiscipleofHim]

But no money cost you