Will Ireland Unify in 2030? | Will Scotland Have Another Independence Vote? | December 2024 Q&A

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much to everyone who submitted questions. There were far more than I could possibly hope to cover. Anyway, I hope you find it interesting, especially the last question on how I make videos. :-)

[@tannerwilson4843]

@JamesKerLindsay It was fantastic finding your channel recently. I was seriously injured in an accident early in 2024 and spent a large part of the year having to go through physical therapy and rehab. Especially early on the year, wanted to find some channels and spend some of my time recovering looking to learn more about different topics and this was a fantastic channel. As for 2025 and beyond it would be great to have some videos about when sports and politics collide and the issues that can flair up both on and off the field. For example, maybe what circumstances would allow a nation like Russia who’s been banned from competing since the February 2022 Invasion of Ukraine in organizations like FIFA & UEFA, the IIHF (Ice & inline hockey) as well as Track & Field. What would need to happen to create a road map back to allow them to compete again and with an event like the 2028 Summer Olympics being in a Los Angeles, could that complicate any potential roadmap. Also, a few weeks ago during the European World Cup Qualifying Draw, we found out that Albania and Serbia were drawn into the same qualifying group. It was amazed that was not a banned matchup after what happened when a brawl took place between the two teams during the EURO 2016 Qualifiers when an ultra flew an inappropriate banner and flag over the flew so low that an opposing player grabbed and ripped apart. FIFA & UEFA are looking to see how to avoid a repeat of the same situation when the European World Cup Qualifiers taking place next up. Such playing in a neutral country or playing behind closed doors where no fans can attend the games.

[@AndrewFrantz-hn2zy]

Hi Prof James .. love your work and especially your dedication to presenting the facts as they are with zero conscious spin .. keep up the great work ..

[@Austine1452]

Treaties are only ever worth the paper they are signed on, when both sides have deterrence. The USA broke hundreds of treaties with the native Americans, because of the difference in power level.

[@Robespierre-lI]

Really excellent commentary on Scotland's latent conservatism (especially the point regarding the British pound which is something that I did not quite pick up on.) My approach to that issue has always been whether or not an independent Scotland is economically viable - and what effect Scottish MPs leaving Westminster would have on English and Welsh politics, which I would forecast could be QUITE disruptive. I'm entirely agnostic on Unionism itself, at least in the context of a well-functioning EU.

[@AppNetEnt]

Keep doing what you’re doing, the videos you have evolved are practically spot on - oxymoron I know but you know what I mean. I really wanted to get into IR at uni but ended up spending longer in Australia - building my own IR (😅😂😂), have an amazing 2025 James and let’s all have our fingers crossed things won’t go pear shaped internationally as we all fear. 😘

[@TheStobb50]

I am English living in Scotland until you come and live in Scotland. You don’t appreciate the amount of neglect Scotland has suffered in the last hundred years it runs deep in the heart of the people living in Scotland. The obvious thing that can be seen straight away is infrastructure, roads and rail We are miles behind England.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

Scottish roads are considerably better than those in the north of England! If you travel from Scotland via Carlisle you immediately notice the shabbiness of northern England. The north would very much like the level of public spending that Scotland has.

[@endermasa9451]

@@Lawrence4000-s3k This is completely true. It’s hard as a Northerner to hear Scots complain when we know just how bad it could actually be. In fact going up to Scotland feels like entering a very prosperous and developed place in comparison, that clearly is heavily invested in

[@tonylove4800]

So why vote no? The young were brave, the older voters not so much.

[@henryhooper6638]

@@TheStobb50 the reality is that Scotland is only second to London and south east as far as wealth goes. Gini index and only country that always exports more than it imports since records began. I have to say the north of England is utterly ignored by London. Quite why its blindly accepted by them I'm not sure

[@acciesmad6237]

Strange isn't it 🤔 How the North of England and Scotland seem to disagree which part of the UK is worse off like it's some kind of sick competition..I'm Scottish but regularly pass through the North of England when I go to see my relatives in Liverpool.. I would say that both parts of this island are the same..Both get ignored by Westminster..and treated with contempt. I want to see my country independent..And I would have no objection if the north wanted to join us..lets all escape together 🤷🤞

[@MattHill-y2n]

I didn’t start using KZbin until about 18 months ago. Your channel was the first I found to learn about current geopolitical issues explained with historical context. Over the past several years I felt the need to know WHY. I’m grateful that you did decide to become a KZbinr. Not only do I find your videos very informative but they inspire me to learn even more about each subject. Thank you!

[@Jl200]

Absolutely spot on re Scotland applying for membership of the EU. Spain’s foreign minister at the time actually said so long as the process was done under UK law they would not oppose Scottish EU membership, but the BBC of course have selective hearing.

[@christianbolisca1493]

Probably because of Gibraltar.

[@Down_with_Thatcher]

Yes, that was Spain’s attitude but as an aside, how Catalonia might even go about taking that same step that Spain would accept as legitimate for Scotland, is another matter altogether… I think James is spot-on in relation to Scotland’s strange (at least to me) reluctance re the currency to use should it wish to join the EU post a withdrawal from the UK. I have often wondered what that reluctance to drop Sterling and adopt the Euro is all about, but agree that until it is prepared to take that currency-change step, it seems the mindset that would make constitution change a reality, is not yet fully formed.

[@JamesMc2051]

The other thing with this issue, in any case, is that existing EU members will obviously say one thing to a country without UN status and may say a different thing to the same country which then has independent UN status. What is said by anyone connected to a national government will have more of an eye on placating an existing power/national government (unless they are in major dispute with diplomacy in tatters) or on manipulating their own domestic politics than it will on placating a country which doesn't have the same status. Spain will obviously tend to be dismissive to any other country seeking independence in case Catalonia then use their own words against them in future discussions about them being independent. If Scotland is independent though - well that's a different matter. At that point the EU (and NATO, for that matter - a separate debate but they'd have the same thoughts) would look at Scotland and think whether they'd rather have them on board or subject to the overtures of other powers. The EU aren't really in the business of not bringing in new members so long as they are relatively functional economically, relatively democratic and at peace. That said....in the next ten years I think there's no chance at all. Ireland will unify first. I may not see Scotland becoming independent (I believe it eventually will) and I'm 47. The monarchy will also go, by the way, but I think that'll also be decades from now and will be preceded by foreign countries dropping them first. One truth about the world is that nothing lasts and everything changes. We sometimes don't recognise that because we are fairly short lived and, subsequently, short sighted. To see a likely future you need to look at longer term trends.

[@Robespierre-lI]

I would not put a great deal of faith in a comment by one Spanish foreign minister made quite some time ago in a different historical moment. Madrid will probably always have anxiety about seperatism. It is pretty much their historical destiny.

[@JamesMc2051]

And the long term trends as far as global politics go is that there are more countries each year, with governance at a lower level, more international co-operation and economic alliances (because bigger markets increase bargaining power) and monarchies are clinging onto being ceremonial and may not be around for much longer (looking long term). If that's true, then the question is whether we are at the forefront of that or near the back. I suspect the latter. NE Africa will change massively. And West Africa. And I think Russia will too (look at the size of it and all the competing political forces that must contain, as well as the current desperate moves to turn back time and hold back the tide). And the Middle East might change every generation the way that is going. But this is all decades and maybe a century plus in the making. I think our long future is small countries and city states within large economic unions, despite our recent political moves. Sort of akin to Europe of centuries ago, but with the larger unions based on economics rather than religion or monarch ties.

[@happyhabitpodcast]

As an irishman I can tell you the appetite for a united Ireland is mixed. In an ideal world it would appeal bur when you factor in the cost of amalgamation of two public sectors, two health services, 2 education systems, 2 of literally every public service and utility including the police force, the costs are expected to be north of 100 billion within the first 5 to 10 years post reunification. And in reality the reunification process would take years. Plus factor in the reality that the pay levels in the north of ireland are lower than in the Republic and the cost of living is much higher in the Republic, it means that northerners will get an enormous shock at just how expensive their lives will get and southerners will be shocked by how expensive reunification is in tax terms. Reunification is a nice idea but in practice it's really not desirable for anyone other than British exchequer.

[@bikeman9899]

@@happyhabitpodcast The UK Treasury would love to be rid of NI. It costs about 12B quid a year. At some point, as UK debt grows, cash must be used to service their debt. It's inevitable in a low growth economy like the UK. Then, they will look for ways to save cash. Serious cash, without pissing off the English electorate. What fits that description? NI.

[@peterdoyle1591]

@@bikeman9899 As an Irish Republican, We got the GFA, we got rid of the border, and NI is still economically part of the EU. And a Nationalist Finst Mininster. There is an uneasy peace that will fade with time. We have to build NI up economically first, which we are doing if you care to look it up. We don't want a basket case so that 12 billion quid benefits the whole of Ireland. The Irish see it as a handy few bob and this Irish hate the Brits and Brits hate the Irish was overrated that got a bit rough at times. Anyway, we have the immigrants to worry about. They need NI as a stepping stone into Britain. One good economic crash accidentally on purpose should clear them. Anyway, Westminister hasn't cared about the English electorate since WW2.

[@DerekTJ]

@happyhabitpodcast There are mixed opinions, yes, however, when the question is put to the people, however that may be, I have no doubt that it would be an overwhelming yes, in favour of a UI. The UK would have to be liable for a parachute payment too; €40bn would be a bargain for them.

[@MartinMartinm]

Ireland is set to receive billions in tax revenue from big corporations. If this money was to be invested correctly like they did in Norway, then they can economically incorporate them, but Ireland is culturally and demographically a different place now. The reunification would be nothing more than economic expansion.

[@fishyq5077]

100 billion? Really? That is the number put about by partitionists that want the status quo. As other replies have stated, Britain is already paying a massive amount for a colony that returns no Tory/Reform/Labour MPs. They will not lose any votes by jettisoning this expensive mistake. The unionist MPs show themselves to be bigots and stuck in the 1690's. British people, i.e. people from Britain, will not put up with this folly forever.

[@briangourley1564]

You are right Professor Kerr Lindsay we haven't had a proper and intelligent debate and discussion about what a united Ireland would look like and how that state would accommodate the Unionist community and tradition. As you say the Republic has become a lot more tolerant pluralistic and secular (it was effectively de facto a Catholic theocracy) but they really haven't had a serious discussion about the costs and implications of Irish unity. Unity will change the 26 counties as much as it will change the six counties.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks, Brian. I have often wondered why Ireland started this conversation in earnest. I suspect that maybe it would be just too divisive, and maybe politicians feel that there's no need to cross that bridge yet. What's your sense?

[@johnwood6750]

@@JamesKerLindsay Right now, Irish politics is defined by Sinn Féin's battle against the centre right in the form of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. One or other of those two parties held power from 1923, but now neither can hold power without the other and some independents in coalition. As Sinn Féin's only real platform is the unification of Ireland, the other parties remain silent on it, seeing no votes in it and a lot of change they'd have to navigate that they'd rather not. Both centrist parties in the Republic specialise in kicking the can further along the road and avoiding hard decisions of any sort. From the unionist perspective, they need to start engaging with this possibility too, currently the same old rhetoric plays out among them with the exception of a brave few souls at the end of their careers with little to lose. But there are more foreign nationals in the Republic these days than there are Unionist voters in the North, and the unionist population is aging rapidly as their children tend to go to college in Britain and don't return. If they do not take part in shaping a United Ireland, they may find their voice much diminished in that inevitable debate.

[@briangourley1564]

@JamesKerLindsay thanks for your reply. The emergence of Sinn Fein (an avowedly all island organisation) as a serious political force in the 26 counties has propelled the question of Irish unity and the creation if a 32 county state up the agenda in a way that's never been seen before. After partition in 1922 and the creation of the jurisdictions of northern ireland and the then Irish Free State a civil war erupted in the South between those who accepted the Treaty that established partition and those who remained bitterly opposed. Years afterwards Dublin politicians such as Eamon De Valera the leader of Fianna Fail (the anti treaty side ) would make occasional statements condemning partition but in reality after the Civil war and the creation of the Free State the North and the South turned their backs on each other and became respectively a protestant state for a protestant people and a Catholic state for a catholic people. Then in the 1960s there was a series of meetings between the Republics Taoiseach Sean Lemass and the Northern Ireland Prime Minister Terence O'Neill which was the first attempt at rapprochement but then the hardline Unionists such as Ian Paisley opposed this and O Neills efforts to build bridges between the two communities in the Six Counties. Then the Troubles erupted and as they raged many in the Republic came to the conclusion that getting involved with the Six Counties was toxic reinforcing that sense of a partitionist mentality. We are now over 25 years on from the Good Friday Agreement and a whole generation has grown up in a radically different world. Sinn Fein has capitalised on the anger of younger voters in the Republic angered by the housing crisis and have seized the momentum forcing the Establishment parties Fianna fail and Fine Gael to start talking about the topic. The biggest concern is how the Republic could afford to finance the Six Counties which is kept afloat or drip fed by an enormous ten billion pound subvention from Westminster. Would taxes have to go up? Would the Republic fundamentally have to change? There are big questions about Irish identity and what being Irish means today. Also we really haven't touched on the role of the eu ( in the 2016 brexit vote the Six Counties voted to remain) and what would it do in the light of a pro-unity vote.

[@Richard1A2B]

We all need to talk about it, and already there are huge forums for discussions. We are at the early days and alot of conversations/debates have yet to be had. So Sinn Féin and 2030 is for the birds. I grew up in Dublin in a Catholic family (I'm not religious now),but my father-in-law was a Grand Master in a Lodge in Wicklow, he was a Reverend of the Church of Ireland (Anglican). We're more the same than we're different.

[@joshadams8761]

@@briangourley1564Your thoughtful comment is an example of why I read KZbin comments.

[@lyallfurphy]

Merry Christmas

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you. And a very Happy New Year!

[@henryhooper6638]

The treaty of union, for me as a Scot is the perfect example of treaties being ignored, not just fir the last quarter century, but since its conception.

[@Gravadlax-ki7rh]

In what way?

[@henryhooper6638]

@@Gravadlax-ki7rh UK supreme court. Illegal under Scots law

[@ClemensKatzer]

Very informative and multi-faceted video, thank you!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@ShumaBot]

Tossing in a comment to say that this is one of the best channels on the platform and your efforts are appreciated. Don't let negative comments get you down, KZbin has fully embraced courting controversy and has engineered the platform to push hostility to the surface but that doesn't represent most people.

[@someoneinoffensive]

Not putting Wales on that thumbnail... Pretty much demonstrates the dismissive attitude which is driving the independence movement here; the percentage (25 for, 50 against) is not that incomparable to Scotland 6 years before the referendum. Brexit moved it from 5% to 25%, Scottish and Irish independence would put it in serious contention of happening.

[@someguy3766]

Sure but these shifts in the polls don't typically reflect a permanent change in attitudes. They are often a sort of flash in the pan of people reacting to something, rather than an evolving deep commitment to some greater ideal. I would take a gradual, consistent increase over a long period of time more seriously than a 20% jump in the space of a year.

[@vizibilibende5194]

Scotland and wales will be independent country like ireland... Türkiye support freedom of wales - scotland 🇹🇷❤️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[@someguy3766]

@@vizibilibende5194 But not Kurdistan...

[@Steve-gr6jm]

Not trying to be disrespectful, but literally what independence movement? Plaid Cymru?

[@vizibilibende5194]

@@someguy3766 🤣🤣🤣🫵🏻🫵🏻😂😂

[@gokhanakay8446]

Happy new year Mr. Professor. Thank you for your videos and work.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you! A very Happy New Year to you too.

[@bikeman9899]

Re NI. The question isn't unification or not. Either is OK, if rhe majority want it. Respect for democracy is what matters. The GFA enforced democracy in NI, where it didn't really exist before. Also, the decision to divest NI, will be made in London , not Belfast or Dublin. Yes, if course a referendum will be held. The outcome of rhat, will reflect Londons willingness to pay the bills. So far, they are . Long may that continue, IMO. I share your perspective. The majority of English ppl don't really care. Most English ppl innfact prefer warm relationships with IRELAND, and unification is one way to achieve that. Also, as we saw with Brexit, English voters are transactional, not really strategic. "How much is NI costing me in taxes?" This pocket book question has never been put to the UK electorate. If it was, they, the English would drop NI like a hot potato. IMO, IRE has the ideal situation now. 1. Peace in NI, 2. No border, ( dejure yes, defacto no). 3. UK pays the bills up there. I feel sorry for NI nationalists trapped there, but they have peace, control local government (Stormont) and the biggest growth of any UK region ( reminder to Brexiteers, NI remains in the EU for trade in goods so it will continue to grow faster than GB)

[@Jerryosu83]

I agree with the above, the question needs to also be asked how much will unification cost the Republic of Ireland? There would need to be funding from the UK to cover security costs etc.

[@Rumpelstyltskin]

I live in Dublin and would be from a middle-class background. I work in the IT sector and am relatively comfortable. I, for one, am not fine with my taxes subsidising a rather backward and poor unionist population, should they wish to stay and receive dole/social welfare payments from Dublin, in the event of unification.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

"...as we saw with Brexit, English voters are transactional," I don't follow. The English and Welsh voted for sovereignty and greater democratic accountability. The transactional types would have voted remain.

[@bikeman9899]

@@Jerryosu83 About €13B p.a. That is what it costs London today to run the place.

[@bikeman9899]

@@Lawrence4000-s3k The sovereignty argument was bogus, and emotional. Ditto the democracy argument. Don't you remember the bus with £ 100M extra per month for the NHS!!! All the money sent to Brussels, should be here etc. Leave was very transactional and emotional. The emotional piece of the argument swung it, IMO, but the frustration at the heart of working class voters, " used to earn 18 quid an hour as a plasterer, now I earn 10 quid" argument was the basis.

[@bobbobertbobberton1073]

I'm Scottish and I'm voting for independence, I want out of this sinking ship.

[@nickiseb8910]

It's the EU that is sinking. Wait a couple of years.

[@tonylove4800]

Had your chance and you bottled it.

[@glasgovipsolara]

@@tonylove4800 - democracy did not end in Scotland in 2014.

[@bobbytate3969]

@@bobbobertbobberton1073 if you leave then Scotland won't funds from Westminster and it is predicted leaving will be three times worse than brexit

[@bobbobertbobberton1073]

@@tonylove4800 No I voted for independence last time. Britain has been a dump for ages. Also last time wasn't the first independence vote, there will be more votes to come if the population wants it.

[@Sokaxis]

We can't really be talking about international law when the 5 permanent security council members refuse to sign the most basic international treaties. Who do we expect to uphold these laws when the ones supposed to guarantee their implementation refuse to sign them?

[@redjacc7581]

If scotland wants independence then let the english vote in that referendum and scotland would be free in a heart beat.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

I suspect there's more truth to this than many would like to admit!

[@tomk8729]

@@JamesKerLindsay The English need it explained to them just to what extent their country would be diminished by the loss of Scotland. The shadenfreude across the world would be immense, to say nothing of the laughter at England being cut down to size. Would the rUK inherit the Permanent Membership of the UN Security Council? Technically yes but it might then become practical to change the basis. 10% lopped off GDP would send it right down the rankings below countries like France and Italy, formerly peers. Would a near-bankrupt Scotland be expected to patrol the north Atlantic and the Greenand-Iceland gap? What about Faslane/Coulport? Would Scotland be allowed to freeload like Ireland has? Brexit has made seccession far more risky and difficult due to EU rule that limit deficit. Scexit would be Brexit on steroids. Post-seccession, the risk of state collapse on England's northern border is real - the SNP has no answer to questions of deficit, inheritance of debt share, currency, interest rates, pensions etc etc etc. Even if you don't care about Scotland, these have implications for England. Thankfully (writing as a Scot) the independence threat is receding.

[@someguy3766]

@@tomk8729 It could probably be made to work, somehow, eventually. But the simple fact is, as one island, it just makes a lot of sense to act as one economic and political unit. There is a lot to lose by cutting it in pieces and not much to gain. We probably have the right mix as things are, being one united kingdom but with devolution allowing places like Scotland to manage certain things in accordance with local needs. I understand that nationalism is important to some people, but personally I think a respectful union in which we acknowledge our unique identities while also reaping the benefits of an island-wide economy and defence apparatus makes sense. You are right, it's not just an issue for Scotland, England without Scotland would be in a mess too. My fellow English people who don't realise this have their heads in the sand.

[@Gryphind0r]

🎯

[@JamesMc2051]

That's not exactly self-determination. Why not pursue English independence if that's your honest view?

[@CooperJames-b4x]

The question I want answered is, "How much interference from the British government and its intelligence service has there been". The latest polling puts independence at 66%.

[@lodkathree]

James, I really like your unscripted style. It is really approachable. Thanks for your efforts in educating your viewers. Cheers.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. I love doing these videos for that reason. However, it is sadly too tricky for my regular videos. But I hope to do more of these now. The plan is to do one at the end of each month.

[@Guantimasao]

I support United Ireland 🇮🇪 and independent Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 from India 🇮🇳…..

[@Richard1A2B]

Happy new Year Professor, thanks for your great content.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. And a very Happy New Year to you too! :-)

[@Richard1A2B]

@@JamesKerLindsay You might be Interested, Prof Brendan O'Leary of Queen's University Brlfast, gave a fact filled (data rich) lecture to the Irish Institute of European Affairs. It can be seen here.... go past the sit down interview, Prof O'Leary's lecture at the lecture is so informative. A must for those of us in these islands who want a successful, constructive and prosperous place for all. KZbin won't let me include the link, so you'll have to search for it.

[@6Tghma]

Ireland should have been united many many years ago. The conflict in Northern Ireland was caused by our government. So many lives lost needlessly.

[@tonylove4800]

The conflict in Northern Ireland? You make it sound like this Irish issue is decades-old not centuries-old.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

But that would have meant civil war. The Unionists were never going to be ruled by what they saw as Papists in the south. The lives were lost because people killed other people and that shouldn't be forgotten. There was always a democratic process but the men of violence chose their own way.

[@williamMcsweeney2024]

@@Lawrence4000-s3kNorthern Ireland was never a democracy. It was a unionist police state up until 1990s

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

@@williamMcsweeney2024 There were elections, though. Was there a time before the 1990s when the Republicans gained a majority of the votes? Just because your side couldn't get the votes doesn't mean it wasn't a democracy (that's the Remain argument). There was a border poll in 1973 and the Unionists won with an absolute majority of the electorate (despite the boycott). It would have been deeply undemocratic to force a people into an unwanted union.

[@6Tghma]

@@tonylove4800 apologies, meant centuries old. The Irish are not to blame for the conflict. We came to their shores

[@dave3gan]

I'm guessing being part of the UK under Labour is more palatable than under the Conservatives for the Scots while Unionists in NI prefer the opposite

[@Robespierre-lI]

That used to be absolutely true. However, I'm not entirely sure the Unionists really have any true friends left in Westminster. There's definitely room for debate on this point, however, at this point. It just strikes me that sometime between the Good Friday Agreement and now, all British parties decided that they had had quite enough of the problems that Northern Ireland had given them in the previous century.

[@JamesMc2051]

Yes, in the main. Although - to counter - if Reform really grow and become more influential then that's blown out the water. I don't think they will significantly in the long term. I think the right will eventually gather around the usual Tory banner but Blue Labour and Red Tory can usually get by as far as the Scots are concerned (without always being favoured - although sometimes it can be). When it goes further right then it gets into 'wildly unpopular' territory. We're generally in the tradition of most northern European countries; split between social democrats and neoliberals. If that becomes neoliberals and this alt right, radical right, far right populism which has risen massively and is challenging around Europe then I think that increases the attraction of getting out because we have those types too, but they don't yet have a strong political base or support.

[@electricVGC]

If you look at how consistent Chinese, Israeli and Indian violations of obligations have been since the 50s I don't think there ever really was a time that treaties mattered - Israel has such a strong consistency in the violation of international law since its recognition that I don't think any other state can take it seriously

[@nickiseb8910]

mmm....I am not a pro Israel person but not every State has been attacked by it's neighbours so many times. It's a special situation. Talking about violations. China violates every day treaties. Turkic people, Tibetans, Phillipienes.. Are you blind or brainwashed.

[@ProudTurkroach]

When did india break any treaty ? I don't remember that

[@AustrianPainter14]

What makes it worse is all three of them are present in all of our countries in substantial numbers and in government making these very decisions.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

@@ProudTurkroach India has broken plenty of trade treaties and they are nearly always in dispute with Pakistan about the Indus waters. The big one is the Non proliferation treaty but India never actually signed that one (which is a bit like saying that since the Soviet Union wasn't a party to the Geneva Conventions in WW2 that it never committed any war crimes)

[@ProudTurkroach]

@@Lawrence4000-s3k Well classic western hypocrisy Ever seen what Pakistan has done to us Also india is powerful enough to unilaterally change Indus water treaty and get away with it Still we are inviting Pakistan to discuss it And you talk about nuclear I wonder who helped Pakistan build a nuclear bomb ??? (Spoiler alert -USA)

[@julianivanov3058]

Happy Christmas and Happy New Year! Thank you for the incredible content. Your channel really is one of a kind, professor

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Julian. That's really kind. Have a very Happy New Year too!

[@A1D3NR1L3Y]

Wishing you a happy new year Professor! I find your videos so informative and so understandable as someone who isn't necessarily the brainiest. I now find myself listening to your videos over and over whilst I'm cooking in the kitchen. (:

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! That's really lovely to hear. I always reserve the best videos for my cooking. 🙂Have a very Happy New Year too!

[@joemulhall5202]

Interesting views on Irish (re) unification Professor James. As an Irish citizen, living in the Republic of Ireland, I do feel that any debate within the UK (especially England) about Northern Ireland joining the Republic of Ireland appears based on a falacy that it just requires a border poll in Northern Ireland and if the majority vote to join the state currently known as the Republic of Ireland, then that is it..... It is not as simple of that. Firstly, any UK discussion on the topic on the pro unification side appears dominated by the media/acedemic assumption that Sinn Fein position represents the entire non unionist position. While Sinn Féin (SF) are a major political party with strong and recents links to paramilitaries in NI and the ROI , their position is by no means representative of the majority of those open to unification. The SF position appears dominated by a view the unification represents a victory of the Irish Republican movement over the 'British State' , imposing their views, politics and culture on the minority rather than the mutual agreement among separate internationally recognised states to join together in a peaceful and mutually beneficial process creating a new future for all. This SF mindset is understandable given the context of SF's evolution from the political wing of the Provisional Irish Republican Army engaged in armed conflict with the 'British Crown' and the 'Irish Freestate ' with a mix of right wing authoritarian and essentially marxist trotskyist politics to what it is today. However while SF might like to spin itself as being the agenda setters on this topic, the reality is different for peaceful unification to take place. The Good Friday Agreement is a peace agreement, and while it has made unification easier, it is NOT a final blueprint nor agreed plan for inevitable unification. That would require and entirely new agreement. Certainly SF would have an important part to play, it most certainly is not nor cannot be the only one of the republican tradition. Indeed looking at the political geography of Ireland (The Republic) SF while a big political party, is only the third largest in terms of first preference votes ( just under 20% of total first preference votes in the last General Election) behind two other longer established political parties both of whom are in principle also committed to a united Ireland infact ALL political parties in the Republic of Ireland are in principle committed to a united Ireland on the basis of consent but do not necessarily agree with SF...and 'others' command just under 80% of the first preference votes in the Irish Electorate in the November general election. Hardly a Viet Cong sutuation !! However SF supporters appear unwilling to acknowledge this, nor entertain debate on how the Irish Republic may need to change in the event of unification to become properly inclusive to those of a Unionist tradition, and this is not just about accommodating Orange parades and bonfires. It encompases the political structure of a post unification Ireland, from seemingly superficial matters like the flag and anthem, to the deeper political arrangements, such as for example a federal republic with two states with in a federal arrangement like Germany or the USA for example, or a Republic , but rejoining the Commonwealth with the British Monarch as head of state like Canada or Australia for example, or a constitutional arrangement whereby Unionist parties are guaranteed the role of at least Taniste (Deputy Prime Minister) in any Irish Government in a mandatory cross sectarian coalition arrangement for at least a generation similar to the current NI assembly arrangements under the GFA.....all open to debate, but generally shouted down by many populist SF supporters, though I'm sure political realists at the top of the SF party realise that these debates need to happen and concensus that may be very different to populist SF assumptions. The second point to make is that unification would require a referendum in the Republic of Ireland also agreeing to unification. NI (and the UK )on its own CANNOT make unification happen. Recent polls and indeed the latest general election results in Ireland suggests little popular demand for unification among the Irish electorate, with issues around healthcare, inflation, cost of living, immigration, housing and concerns about climate change ( particularly among younger voters) being of more immediate concern. This in many ways is driven by the dramatic economic growth in Ireland since the 1990's resulting in a significant expansion (and cosmopolitan nature) in population and increasing expectations of the population around living standards and declining interest in Northern Ireland since the GFA peace agreement. There was very little talk about unification as a political topic in the last General Election here in Ireland (no singing of 'Four Green Fields' at the Fianna Fail conferences this time !!!😂) other than SF whose vote actually declined as a share of first preference votes compared to the previous General Election for a host of reasons. In many ways Ireland today more closely resembles pre 1990 West Germany albeit on a much smaller scale of course, than the poor relation of the UK that many in England may think of Ireland as. For more and more people, Irishness is no longer defined through the lense of radical Irish Republicanism as Irish born, anti British, Roman Catholic, Gaelic culture leaning, armed struggle sympathising, downtrodden masses. Looking at NI , the political shenanigans, Brexit, the economic performance, for many here in Ireland unification may well bring fear of even higher taxes, a more fractious political system, and lower standards of living, and depending on any negotiated political solution, a loss of sovereignty ironically. In the privacy of the polling booth, many may choose their wallets over any nationalistic aspirations! There is a job of work to be done to sell unification to the Irish electorate here, and SF seem to assume it is a done deal that unification is a major driving aspiration here in the Republic of Ireland....they may get a bit if a shock if a referendum is held as things stand. Last point, as the Irish state was created in 1922 and the Irish Republic was officially established in 1948/49, it is correct to refer to the process as 'unification ' and not 'reunification ' as unlike Germany the Irish nation state did not exist in practical terms when the country was divided in the modern context. When the Normans invaded Ireland in the mid to late 13th century, Ireland was a loose association of warring regional kings/chiefs much like Britain at the time of the Roman invasion with little in the form of a coherent nation state. What existed, was a very loose feudal Kingdom with a 'High King', not a Republic. Might be different if Ireland was still a Kingdom today like Scotland ! Happy New Year

[@lagancider6153]

@@joemulhall5202 I’m a small “u” Unionist from NI, you’ve made your points very succinctly, and I must agree with everything you’ve said. I might add, that for my generation, those who lived through “the troubles” Sinn Fein, and their triumphalist agenda, always striving for “victory” is the greatest obstacle to Irish unity. Who knows what the future holds, hopefully peace..

[@joemulhall5202]

I was a teenager during the 1980s ...H block protests (1980's), Peace People(late 1970's admittedly), Anglo-Irish agreement etc and was in NI doing business for a GB based business in the late 1990's.... Clear memories in the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's of sense of shame when terrorists wrapped a gruesome act in my country's flag....Equally uncomfortable when told as recently as the 2010's not to park an ROI number plated car in a part of Belfast. But in general things are definitely getting better ......t​@lagancider6153

[@Tereyoc]

United Ireland will happen when the UK doesn't want to pay the 15 billion (which should be more) to run the NI government. Sinn fein barely got 20% of the vote in the election. No one else on the island expects a referendum on a united Ireland in the next ten years. People say they will see some time in their life time. Ireland will never rejoin the Commonwealth as it would require a referendum.

[@plugsocket9432]

@@lagancider6153 So like a Ulster Unionist or Alliance voter then?

[@plugsocket9432]

I liked your summary of SF. I’m a Unionist in NI and lived through part of the troubles. Unionists don’t want unification for multiple reasons. One reason is that Unionists would be second class citizens and treated as such in this ‘New Ireland’ and secondly might lead to a civil war. A lot of the problems that you have mentioned in ROI seem down to a population explosion. Therefore infrastructure can’t cope. Another problem is uncontrolled mass immigration from parts of the World with different cultures, religions and ethnicities. There is no common ground between people in Republic of Ireland and immigrants bring their own conflicts with them. This will be the biggest problem for Europe as a whole over the coming decades. I was taken aback by the Union Flag and Irish Flag side by side in Belfast during the protests against mass immigration during summer of 2024.

[@toomazh]

I just can't recommend this channel enough. Thank you!

[@nikoschris6425]

Τhanks for another excellent video. Merry Christmas and a happy new year!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Nikos. And to you too! :-)

[@adamski-l5w]

I love the Q&A format. I forgot to add my question. 😞 Just starting to watch.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. I really love making them. I hope to start doing them a bit more often. Keep an eye out on the community tab. I usually post calls for questions there.

[@adamski-l5w]

@ thanks Professor. Finished now. Some really good questions and very good answers, thank you for that. Yes Putin’s greatest folly is the very real danger of nuclear proliferation off the back of all the nuclear blackmail. ☹️ I will look out for the community tab. But as a heads up: what are the implications for Lebanon stemming from Assad’s fall? Assad (both of them really) had a terrible record of violent intervention in Lebanon. What are the prospects for peace for Lebanon? Thanks in advance.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@ Thnaks so much! Great question. I will certainly keep an eye on Lebanon. It desperately needs some stability. You’re right. A lot will depend on how the new administration shapes up in Syria.

[@achmedaan]

Merry christmas professor! It was surprisingly (to me at least) interesting to hear your answer to the question about doing KZbin. Your description of writing scripts reminded me a lot of writing academic papers.

[@AbdirizakMuraasil-x3m]

Well articulated points

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much. I always enjoy doing Q&A videos,

[@Guantimasao]

Support Scotland independence love from India 🇮🇳………..

[@mcyte314]

If Scotland is allowed to vote on independence every 10 years, does this mean that they will vote every 10 years on the reunification with England after a possible independence?

[@niallodonnell8860]

No

[@user-rs5gp1dh8u]

No

[@johnoneill2084]

Found this channel 18 months ago but only subscribed recently after removing some of the nonsense channels that I was subscribed to. I am a history graduate from years ago so love the historical context. The videos are well thought out, informative and presented in a manner that treats the audience as adults. No preaching, no click bait and for a man who is clearly so knowledgeable and researched based, no sense that he always knows best. What a lovely change. Look forward to more great videos in 2025 and easy to see why your subscriber numbers are so good.

[@stuartjackson8091]

What swung it in Scotland was the English vote in Scotland, they make up over 9% of the electorate, they had a poll that found 53% of Scots born voters voted yes, which was overturned by the English and European vote, around 72% of English voter's voted no. Polling for independence is higher for independence, since 2016, Scotland has to adopt it's own currency to rejoin the EU, but the Scottish government has not pushed this because many in the leadership are in reality looking for devo max, not independence which is why there vote slumped at the UK election in 2024, a lot of independence supporters stayed at home. The SNP imploded due to Nichola Sturgeon s administration, but thanks too British labour looks on course for a majority in 2026. 54% in favour of independence in the latest poll, it was 58% in favour in 2020, as for course of action you can join EFTA, this is a position gaining ground, the debate has shifted, with research being done into the logistics of adopting a new currency and how to operate the new border etc. the big draw back is that it just hasn't happened with SNP leadership, who has held it back.

[@roryoneill9444]

If it is 9% English, then the Scots need to get at least a poll level of 60%..

[@jamonit7169]

"What swung it in Scotland was the English vote in Scotland.." Really? It seems fairly obvious that English "expats" would vote for keeping the Union but 72% of 9% is still dramatically less than the difference in the overall vote of 10.6%.

[@Gravadlax-ki7rh]

Scottish leadership looking for devo max? That obviously means the indy project numbers do not add up. What most sensible people were saying. Not trying to crank you up, I just don't see it being a good economic choice. I think the countries are too intertwined and don't see how Scotland or Wales or England could secede from the Union. In 2001 87% of people in Scotland were born there. That's now down to 79%. Surprised at those numbers.

[@roryoneill9444]

@@Gravadlax-ki7rh Be part of a Brexited Britain & a country lead by South England Centred fools like Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer is definitely not a good economic choice..

[@stuartjackson8091]

@Gravadlax-ki7rh some not all, because there federalists, some aren't. just saying what well know here, the movement is pretty broad, and if you don't think the British state hasn't got people placed in a movement that could cripple England's supply of oil renewables, water etc then you need to read up on the actions of the British state over the year's. Or any decaying world power for that matter.

[@Vallata1981]

Thank you for your responses on these important questions/issues. From SW Florida USA Observing what is going on in the rest of this world.

[@markdowding5737]

Israel annexed the Golan Heights in 1981, Turkey invaded and ethnically cleansed Northen Cyprus and later recognized the region as independent in 1983, India invaded and annexed Goa in 1961, and Argentina invaded the Falklands in 1982. There is nothing unprecedented about what we are seeing now

[@iano239]

Does that make it right though?

[@markdowding5737]

@@iano239 I mean, at this point is there even such a thing as right or wrong? Those who win decide what is right

[@someguy3766]

I mean, context matters, not to mention scale. These events, while noteworthy in their own right, don't really compare with the events in Ukraine happening right now.

[@markdowding5737]

@@someguy3766 so larger states are more important than smaller ones?

[@someguy3766]

@@markdowding5737 No, I did not say that. My point was those were very localised conflicts that did not have the same kind of global ramifications that, say, a war between two major European powers and their respective superpower backers has.

[@StoyanMitrev]

Your channel is the best. I enjoy listening to everything you have to say and I patiently wait for every new video! Thanks and Merry Christmas!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Stoyan. I really appreciate it. And a very Happy New Year! :-)

[@Down_with_Thatcher]

James, I am a fairly regular viewer of your channel and find it very interesting. One question for you this morning, as I think I recall it arising in at least one of your previous broadcasts: precisely what is your difficulty in relation to whether Ireland will ‘unify’ or ‘reunify’? As you will know, Ireland contained a number of provincial kingdoms prior to the Anglo-Norman invasions which began in 1169, (as England had, prior to their coalescing into one political unit with one overall High King in 927), but had a High King to whom the aforementioned provincial Irish kings were subordinate, and even during the centuries thereafter, Ireland continued to be viewed internationally as one unit, if often a politically uneasy one; from 1542 when the Kingdom of Ireland was created under Henry Vlll as a Kingdom subordinate to the Kingdom of England, but Ireland was still one unit; from 1801 when the Kingdom of Ireland was fully subsumed into the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, still Ireland was one political unit and remained so until the Anglo-Irish Treaty came into effect in 1922, following which, at the ending of the Irish Free State’s ‘Dominion’ status in 1937, the two Irish polities ended up in two fully sovereign states for the first time. So, there is a clear lineage of uninterrupted unitary status in relation to Ireland going back to at least the early medieval period, little different to how England functioned before its unification, so why now should there be any hesitation in reference to whether Ireland’s coming together again would be ‘unification’ or ‘reunification’? Clearly, the logical answer is that as Ireland functioned as, and was viewed domestically (at least by the overwhelming majority population), and internationally as one unit up to the political partitioning of the island, then an official ending of partition at a final British withdrawal, would absolutely constitute a reunification of Ireland. Do you agree with that?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot. Great point. As you note, the term reunify speaks to a more historical reading of the situation. It also has a geographical connotation regarding the island or Ireland. Unification is more legalistic as, very technically, Northern Ireland and Ireland - as an independent state - were never a political unit. Any coming together would therefore be unification, rather than reunification. Of course, this also represents a very political position for Unionists, who want to make the point that unity must be a consensual decision and is not in fact the natural state of affairs. Personally, I don’t have problem using either term, and interchangeably. But i can see both arguments and I know that it can be a sensitive point.

[@esuavage]

Happy New Year, Professor Ker-Lindsay!! Thank you for the work you do and the content you create. I enjoy it immensely!

[@VanaeCavae]

As a Singaporean, whose country was established by the British, i personnally don't support the break up of the UK. Perhaps the UK could be reformed into a federation instead of the unitary state that it currently exist as. Let the English have their own legislative assembly like the Scots and Welsh.

[@Deranged316]

Northern Ireland has one too

[@100geemo78]

@@VanaeCavae They do, it’s called Westminster - over 85% of the sitting MPs are English, therefore, it’s an English parliament with a smattering of MPs from elsewhere in the UK who are powerless to overturn the vast English majority. That’s how it was designed to work: to give the plebs in the Celtic countries the illusion that they had democracy when in actual fact it was and will always be an English parliament.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

@@100geemo78 The English are the only people without their own representation, which is a bit odd. Theres been some very effective Scottish and Welsh MPs - Gordon Brown did well (at the time the country was said to be run by the Scottish mafia!).

[@matthewblairrains6032]

@@100geemo78 Then how come the SNP were able to vote against the repeal of Sunday trading laws in England and Wales?

[@100geemo78]

@@Lawrence4000-s3k Good, auld Gordy “what did you do with the gold” Broon, the guy who broke purdah a few days before the referendum with his ‘Vow’, which may well have swayed many undecided voters to keep the status quo as we’d be getting “as close to Home Rule as possible”. Of course, nothing changed - Broony was lying again !!

[@burprobrox9134]

You’re the best out there, I feel lucky to have found your channel. All the best for 2025 Doc

[@peterperigoe9231]

Thank you Prof for your content during 2024, I am a Roman Catholic born in the UK educated by the De La Salle and living in Ireland since 1976. If I could make some comments on Irish Re-unification. Sinn Fein is not the largest party in the Republic and certainly Bertie Ahearne has long been suggesting that 2030 should be the time line for a border poll. SF are the largest party in Northern Ireland not because they gained more seats in the last election but because the Alliance took seats of the DUP. Also I'm surprised you didn't mention demographics, the 2011 census suggests that there may well be a Nationalist majority by 2030. A lot of work has been done on what a new unified Ireland might look like, but a lot more needs doing. It also is not a absolute that the Republic will vote to accept a United Ireland until we all have a clearer picture on what it will look like. I also believe that Brexit is a dynamic that will favour a unification vote. Thank you.

[@taintabird23]

Good post. I'm on the same page as you.

[@_daboi]

I understand that the topics you talk about can be super controversial, so I really appreciate that you're so diligent about these videos. I stopped looking at the news a while back due to how depressing it always is, and your vids felt like a huge breath of fresh air over all the fearmongering one usually sees in KZbin videos on these subjects. Keep up the great work, Professor; hope you and yours had a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year. :D

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. And a very Happy New Year to you too! And thanks also for your excellent question about conflicts. I'm just sorry I couldn't get around to it. It was just too large a topic! Where to start?!

[@soundkode]

I pray Ireland unites.

[@6995adam]

Thank You professor! You are great! Please continue posting Your informative videos. All the best in 2025.

[@colmanlong1032]

What is britain and where did the word come from. Ireland never belonged to England, its was an illegal invvasion/ occupation and still is.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

Didn't the Scots settle in NI in 1609? That's a fair old amount of time. How long does it take to be considered 'Irish' around your parts?

[@Gravadlax-ki7rh]

The Unionists were there before the USA was founded. They are Irish and have their rights as much as you, although you might not like it.

[@samedwards6683]

Thanks so much for creating and sharing this informative video.

[@SwatantraNandanwar]

Yes to both questions. And a good job too. The last embers of Empire. Never was a partnership of Equals.

[@joemancini2988]

Thanks, Professor. Your videos are always informative and thought provoking.

[@timor64]

15:10 - Had not thought of this re giving up £ for €. It really is the acid test - is Scotland ready to cut the apron strings or not?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. That really is the key question for me. Scotland isn't ready for statehood as long as there is a debate about giving up the pound.

[@belstar1128]

but they wont join the eu instantly so they will have to make up their own currency and use that over at least 10 years

[@niallodonnell8860]

@@belstar1128 There already are non EU countries using the Euro

[@robertskrzynski2768]

When their banks went bust the English tax payers picked up the bills

[@JamesMc2051]

@@JamesKerLindsay Is there a debate though? I'm Scottish and favour independence and practically no-one (bar the most devoted) has spoken about independence since around Covid time. I wouldn't know what polls would say about the specific issue of currency now. It's not even that opinions have changed; it's that priorities changed to the here and now once Truss delivered that budget, increased everyone's mortgage payments, then we had energy costs rise with foreign wars. But the biggest thing was the split between Salmond and Sturgeon. About half the independence activists started putting their energies into fighting each other whereas before they were all concentrating on the same goal. The support is still there but it needs someone to unite it and probably some time because they've created a chasm where one didn't exist before. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence The polls have been somewhere between 60/40 either way (with few exceptions) for a decade now. It may well be a matter of slow generational change. All that's really changed is what political issue has been prioritised and what subsequently gets spoken of. This is purely one person's experience but I found, back a decade ago, that there was a big difference amongst different age groups with regard to the Euro vs Pound issue. Amongst my age group (47), most in favour of independence would have happily switched to the Euro. It's the older voters who have a sentimental attachment to that. Monarchy is the same deal. Salmond sought to retain these things so as to try to make the switch as amenable to the older voters as possible. I'm not even sure the same attitudes still exist ten years later given the economic damage successive UK governments have done. (I'd also have my doubts about monarchy polling as high too.) It may all be a simple case of demographics rather than arguments when you look at the voting data from a decade ago. And I think Ireland is the same deal.

[@athanasioskatsikas6942]

Thank you, and a happy new year, it was really informative about Brexit, Ireland and Scotland.

[@tonypavko1968]

Can't wait

[@Sabhoh]

I’m really confused with the thumbnail, what has the reunification of Ireland got to do in any way with the “end of Britain”?

[@Lukesmithbrfc]

The idea that once N. Ireland reunites with the Rep of Ireland then the House of Cards will fall. As an Englishman, I want the UK to split up.

[@thetroyzernator]

There's an enormous amount of discussion on what a United Ireland would look like here in Ireland. The government has a big office within the Department of the Taoiseach which looks at what a constitutional settlement looks like and pumps out a lot of research and policy papers. These are live political issues and the realities of a Unification vote are a big part of why a lot of people in the Republic would vote no.

[@bikeman9899]

Agreed that many in IRE would vote no. It's a YES on the idea, but NO on the financial reality of taking on a 12B p.a. financial burden that will raise taxes most likely. Prof Linsey is wholly correct in saying a vote would need to be on a specific, fleshed out system of government.

[@Deranged316]

@@bikeman9899 I think if a referendum does happen people in the south will vote a lot more based on financial and economic issues of a united ireland, whereas people in the north will vote more based on emotion, which is understandable given the history of NI. The worst thing possible is NI voting for unity and ROI voting against it, I think it would show that NI is wanted by no one really, as the UK is willing to give it away but Ireland isn’t willing to take it. Would certainly be a really weird scenario and basically NI would be people of nowhere in a way. Bit depressing when you think about if that actually happened.

[@Steve-gr6jm]

Any time the Republic has been polled 60% say they would vote yes on reunification. It has never come back with a majority for no.

[@jamonit7169]

@@Deranged316 "The worst thing possible is NI voting for unity and ROI voting against it" Really, what if the ROI votes for unity and NI votes to remain in the UK...an unlikely scenario possibly but one thing we do know, politicians aren't very good at predicting the result of referendums and voters aren't much better. Who gets to vote would also be significant, it's about 10% of the UK population (6 million) has Irish descendants, first and second generation, so would be eligible for an Irish passport, would they be allowed a vote?

[@joemulhall5202]

There has yet to be a serious national discussion in Ireland on the topic of unification and, if it happened, what it would need to look like. To be inclusive of the Unionist tradition, it is almost certainly going to be different to the existing Republic of Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement is a peace agreement, and while it may make unification easier, it is not the blueprint for the United Ireland should the two referenda (NI and RoI) needed pass. A separate treaty involving the UK, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland probably involving the EU, USA and possibly the UN. The Sinn Fein position is rather simplistic and is couched in terms of a Vietnamese Viet Cong like take over of Northern Ireland as triumphant victors over the British State imposing Sinn Fein politics, culture, attitudes on the 'losers'. The assumption, often perpetuated by British media, that Sinn Fein represents all in the non Unionist camp on both sides of the border is grossly inaccurate, and the last General Election results in the Republic of Ireland reinforces that point. There would need to be a mature and adult debate on both sides of the Irish border about the political arrangements so the new entity of Ireland is diverse and welcoming to monarchy supporting loyalists as much as ardent Irish republicans. This is not about allowing a few Orange marches and bonfires and having the 12th of July as a public holiday, but about the constitutional arrangements that would work. Consideration should be given to a federal arrangement, like Germany, the USA and Canada. Potentially rejoining the Commonwealth and having shared or sole head of state with the British Monarch, and even having to join NATO and dramatically increase defence spending to fulfill our responsibilities to vital undersea cables and critical airlines between North America and Europe at the very least. Also for consideration is full membership of the EU by Northern Ireland as part of the new Irish entity and the impact that may have on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Other more practical arrangements may involve a Northern Irish like mandatory cross sectarian coalition government where the role of Taoiseach or Taniste has to be filled by a member of a Unionist tradition for a number of years or generations until unification beds down. All of the above would be shouted down by Sinn Fein supporters as things stand with the possible exception of EU membership, but needs careful consideration. Should this debate start now or should it wait for a 'heads of agreement' referendum on both sides of the border in favour of unification in principle, followed by debate and negotiation and a further referendum on any final agreement requiring a significant majority in both jurisdictions ?

[@imborahey7568]

Thank you for your videos Professor! Happy New Year!

[@mirandapillsbury7885]

i know this may sound hyperbolic but i genuinely believe that the international communities utter failure at securing a proper and fair peace deal between Palestine and Israel has led to the complete mistrust and erosion of international law. Everyone views Israel's actions as the wests impunity and while there have been some successes such as in the Balkans, in Rwanda etc..this Israel x Palestine question is probably the most symbolically important of all these conflicts and the most "open wounded" conflict for billions of ppl around the world. The world could only postpone this issue for so long before losing credibility im afraid

[@socialminds9894]

I think that is a big piece of it, but there were other factors too. The war on drugs and the war on terror have both been complete hypocritical failures.

[@VladTevez]

Happy new year professor!!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! And a very Happy New Year to you too. :-)

[@eriktopolsky8531]

Nothern Ireland should definitelly leave UK behind

[@robduncan599]

The long slow decline and dissolution of United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Trying to hold UK together is like trying to paper the walls with flour and water in a damp wall .

[@joelcohenx]

One concern in Scotland, is if breaking up from the UK will turn out to be a ScoXit. With severe impact to the economy. Especially if after independence it won't be able to join the EU

[@sametnj]

It will be able to join the EU

[@tomk8729]

@@sametnj Not if it's an economic basket case unable to meet the accession criteria.

[@niallodonnell8860]

@@tomk8729 It will get immediate entry to the EEA no matter what happens-which is by far the most important thing. Then the rUK will continue to need to drop the trade barriers with the EU thereby negating Scottish concerns. Scots need to grasp the nettle though.

[@navinthehouse4710]

True, if they're super reliant on England for trade and border ties, they will feel a pinch

[@JamesMc2051]

Looking at the economic mess Scotland has had to put up with through successive governments they haven't favoured and the major decisions made which they never favoured either then that might not be as strong an argument as it was a decade ago. The currency argument is also weaker for the same reason. Not that I expect to see Scotland independent in my lifetime (well, it'll probably be close) but those arguments become weaker every time a government leaves the economy in decline, and we've had one after the other in the UK. At some point you need to get out of the vehicle with the crazy driver in charge.

[@LordRyanOfYork]

I once visited Scotland. Very beautiful state.

[@billalexander2971]

I agree with what you have said about Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I think there was, and maybe still is, an assumption that a vote for SNP equalled a vote for independence and a vote for SF equalled a vote for Irish re-unification but things are much more complicated than that. My generation of N Irish born is the last generation to have had grandparents born before partition and who lived through the Irish independence period. It’s now been 100 years of separation so the cultural differences can’t be underestimated. So, my feeling is Northern Ireland would remain ‘devolved’ even in a ‘reunified’ Ireland. But I doubt it will happen in my lifetime. However, there must come a point when the re-unification can stops being kicked further down the road. I rather agree with the idea that that there should be a constitutional convention of all the devolved UK parliaments plus England plus Republic of Ireland. As part of this the question of English devolution needs to be dealt with. The current arrangement seems untenable. My view on referendums is that, unless there is real. here and now. compelling reason for change, people will stick with the status quo. I’m now an Australian and down here very few referenda get approved. In most recent times we’ve seen ‘The [indigenous] Voice to Parliament’ rejected. In Chile we saw the proposed constitution rejected. In Ireland we saw the constitutional change rejected. People are suspicious of change. And I suspect that all the people on the British & Irish Islands have been chastened by the post-Brexit issues.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Bill. Really great points. I would agree. There needs to be a lot more discussion about the constitutional set up of the United Kingdom in general, especially given the dominance of England, and what this means for Northern Ireland. In truth, unification is emerging in other ways anyway, Brexit has done more for this than anything. Whatever anyone says, a line has been drawn down the Irish Sea. NI increasingiy exists in a very different political, legal, economic and social place to the rest of the U.K. It always was to a certain extent, but it is becoming more and more pronounced.

[@Deranged316]

What are the cultural differences you notice?

[@michaelogrady1002]

Strand 3 of the Good Friday Agreement set up the British Irish Intergovermental Council in which the Heads of the Devolved Nations and the Republic of Ireland meet .Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement the Constitutional position of Northern Ireland is within the United Kingdom is guaranteed until a majority support reunification. Prior to any changes in Northern Irelands Constitutional position there would be significant discussions regarding the economic implications for the island of Ireland and gaurentees which respect Unionist identity and culture within any future reunited Ireland.

[@rorymcloughlin2023]

Love this channel, always well presented, very informative and full of intelligent comment. Happy new year Professor and thank you for a wonderful year full of perspective and knowledge.

[@TheSwedishHistorian]

irish or scottish independence respectively would boost the cause for the other as the UK would be smaller and weaker.

[@moeawale4891]

Karma is cruel. Couldn't happen to nicer guys who cruelly and without regard divided so many countries and communities around the world and still suffering from that consequences. My beautiful Somalia is one of them.

[@harshbutfair8993]

@TheSwedishHistorian You do realise the majority of Ireland is already independent, right?

[@vizibilibende5194]

🇹🇷❤️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

@@moeawale4891 The UK created the modern world. The reason you're typing and not sweating in the fields is because of industrialisation and that started in the UK. It's why the world looks like Britain.

[@AustrianPainter14]

moeawale4891 Your beautiful Somalia that you choose to not live in lol

[@AnBreadanFeasa]

There is a lot of lowkey backroom planning going on re Irish unification, both by the Irish government and Sinn Féin. During the pandemic I sat in on a SF zoom discussion and it was clear they recognise the complexities and risks involved. Ironically, the Irish government's planning for Brexit was vastly superior to May's or Johnson's... though in the latter case that can't be a surprise to anyone with functional synapses. The best path to unification is to fix housing, education and the health service in the Republic. That is not looking positive at the moment, nor for the next few years. As a result I don't expect to see it happen by the early 2030's, but eventually it is probable, perhaps in the form of a federation.

[@Irish780]

Republic is thrown a lot of money into Northern Ireland lately.... something is happening

[@Rockall57]

This is the best... Happy Xmas

[@BluffyMoo]

Great discussion, James. Happy Holidays to everyone! 🥳

[@ahouyearno]

This is the first time Ive ever heard someone comment on how the Scotland independence vote was about the EU and how they were deceived by the brexit vote It’s so weird how literally no one else connects those dots

[@tonylove4800]

That is only relevant because they bottled it. So no sympathy.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

It remains to be seen whether people were ';deceived' by the Brexit vote. If we look at the economic figures then the Remain supporters should have some very hard questions for the claims made. It's beginning to look like Iraq WMD at this point (they will be found, one day... Just like the much mooted 'damage')

[@squeegeedaniels2105]

Scottish people talk about it all the time mate

[@ahouyearno]

@@squeegeedaniels2105 Of course Scottish people talk about it but outside of Scotland, I've yet to see anyone comment on how this is a total betrayal and undermines the reason why Scotland stayed.

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

I followed the referendum quite closely and don't remember EU membership being such a big thing, tbh. The pound seemed to be the big one. Didn't nearly 40% of Scots voted for Brexit and turnout was fairly low so was it such an issue to people? The indy arguments always seems very close to the Leave arguments to me. Just found an LSE article from 2014, 'The EU issue is not one that appears to be decisive in the formation of people’s views on Scottish independence'. That tallies with what I remember.

[@santiagoalcantara3806]

19:45 There is a serious problem based on international law in this idea. Ireland underwent a colonial process while under United Kingdom rule. The pro-unionist majority population in Northern Ireland is a historical result of that colonial process. Moreover, the borders were deliberately drawn to ensure a majority favoring English rule. The key point here is that settlers do not have a right to self-determination, and as a consequence, the distribution of settlers should not be considered when forming borders. Furthermore, settlers should not participate in the referendum because they are colonial settlers, and allowing them to do so would amount to the de facto legalization of settler colonialism.

[@xunqianbaidu6917]

The problem is that while they are the descendants of settlers, it has been a very long time since then. It is patently absurd to suggest that they don't have any right to self-determination because their ancestors came from great britain four hundred years ago.

[@historyking9984]

That’s absurd. Those people aren’t settlers. Ireland was arguably colonized in 1550. You can’t possibly say someone’s a colonist because their ancestors over 474 years ago were. By then theyre likely mixed with Irish and English blood and regardless they’re people who were born in Northern Ireland and who’s ancestors have lived there for generations.

[@niallodonnell8860]

@@xunqianbaidu6917 Yes. You can't go back centuries to support that point. It must be much more recent. However in the case of the criminally unnecessary partition of Ireland there remains the other issue that Santiago mentioned-the completely iniquitous placing of the border which included large areas of Irish majority territory. This seriously reduces the legitimacy of the statelet. This is related to another issue. The British side in Ireland and Britain entirely failed to make the case for being a separate nation because they fully intended at all times to retain control of both states in Ireland and duly fought the Irish for control of the southern state after the Irish voted overwhelmingly for independence. Obviously had they made the point the north was a different country they could hardly maintain that the south was not and it is only after their attack on Irish democracy failed did they decide that the north was a separate country. How legitimate is NI after this level of treachery?

[@Vaultboy-ke2jj]

That’s a ridiculous statement. So Scotland shouldn’t be allowed to vote for independence using your logic because they’re the descendants of Irish colonists from the time of the fall of the Roman Empire

[@Austine1452]

Cyprus

[@Rachub]

An interesting contrast is that whilst support for Scottish indepdence has been similar since Brexit, is has surged in always-ignored Wales (from an admittedly lower base but also without as strong a campagin for it). Pre-Brexit it was almost always around 10%, the latest poll put it at 37% (with a majority of under 45's in support) and has generally been around a third for a few years now. In Scotland the dial has not fundamentally shifted.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Wales is a really interesting case. Yore absolutely right. In fact, immediately after the Scottish vote in 2014, support for independence fell to just 3-4%. But then made a massive gain after the Brexit vote. I thought that it had fallen a bit since then, but these figures suggest otherwise. As it happens, if Wales ever became independent, I would actually be a Welsh citizen! 😀🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[@merocaine]

Treaties have an expiration date, they have to be renegotiated. The example of Ukraine is a little pointless, as the treaty was based on Ukraine and Russia remaining brother countries, however within 25 years they had midan and a drift to war. That treaty died the day Midan happened.

[@ShubhamMishrabro]

Ukraine already had orange revolution in 2004. It wasn't maidan which ended the so called imaginary brother relationship

[@merocaine]

@@ShubhamMishrabro it most certainly did. Up until then there was a working relationship. Since then it's been basically daggers drawn.

[@joshadams8761]

It’s with this backdrop that I praise your excellent audio and video.

[@johnbull3550]

Aye Brits out now 🇮🇪

[@wintersnowowen2254]

Don’t be a xenophobic.

[@moshemarkholt2948]

@@johnbull3550 Irish out of England now

[@johnbull3550]

Ireland doesn't occupy England 🙄

[@johnbull3550]

@@wintersnowowen2254 Wanting an end to the occupation of part of my Island Nation is not being Xenophobic 🙄

[@wintersnowowen2254]

@@johnbull3550 it’s not your country.

[@kbright73]

With regards to Irish reunification, the assumption is been made that the rep. will agree, it's not just a decision for the northern Irish, your talking about a fundamental change to the nature of the Rep. of Ireland too, the south is aware of the the costs associated with reunification , increased taxation, threat of renewed violence on the island etc.., i think you'll find there is less of an appetite for it in the south than SF and a lot of the pundits think there is

[@stephenholmes1036]

Sir you have it in one, I don't want the north yet,We are totally different people. This needs time

[@cuttinaboot]

I am Scottish and wasn’t old enough to vote for independence I am now and I would vote for independence, I’ve said since I was about 16 or younger that if we gained independence there would be no need for the snp anymore

[@cuttinaboot]

I also agree that Scotland probably needs a few years to be ready but as the next generation of voters move in , I think scottish independence and Irish unification are both almost completely inevitable long term

[@AustrianPainter14]

Not if immigration keeps happening. Any non-European is a vote for the union.

[@vizibilibende5194]

as a türkish ı support independent scotland.... you can be like norwegian ...small population but rich oil source.......peace ......

[@Gravadlax-ki7rh]

You will have a nationalist government whatever their name.

[@patrickmcdonald2239]

Nice to get a different perspective on the Scottish independence struggle 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[@bobbytate3969]

I am English, i wasn't able to vote on the brexit referendum. Personally i don't think we should of have left the EU because of whats happened to the economy . These videos always make me sad when its saying that the UK could be collapse but i do understand why it exists. I just hope that the country could get better so people don't want to leave . Also I hope you all had a merry Christmas

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

The economy has performed as well as the EU so am not sure your concerns are something to be worried about. Europe as a whole has performed very weakly and there's no reason to think we would have escaped that had we voted to remain. GDP per capita growth (OECD) 2016 - 2022 France 7.6 UK 6.8 Spain 5.9 Germany 5.5 Italy 4.2 In the most recent forecast, both the OECD and IMF say the UK will outperform France and Germany in 2025.

[@stephenholmes1036]

I'm from Co, Cork and o wish we wete out

[@jono_cc2258]

Thank you for another fantastic Q&A, I entirely agree that Scotland and Norhern Ireland are linked, if one goes then it will be the catalyst for all out change.

[@zakariyashakir4091]

Thank you James, could you also talk about the possibility of a Kurdish state? all 4 parts of Kurdistan unify

[@sametnj]

What's Kurdistan? Can you explain?

[@vizibilibende5194]

Never 😂😂😂😂

[@user-zo2rj2zi9g]

As a Scot I’m not particularly keen to see the break up of the UK. The issues we face are the same as those in Newcastle, Liverpool, Sheffield etc and I’d like to see things improve for all of us…..but…I’d take Independence every day of the week over the prospect of seeing Nigel Ferage and Reform coming to power. I’d 100% vote for independence and a return to the EU, with the Euro.

[@loneprimate]

Speaking as a Canadian (and an Irish citizen), I really wish the EU would get its act together... finally trust each other, dump the "everyone gets a veto" nonsense, and get on with running the place. We really, REALLY need another tent pole holding up democracy now that the US is flagging both as a genuinely free country and one interested in maintaining freedom elsewhere. I only wish Canada could join the European Union... I really do.

[@Steve-gr6jm]

We have a free trade agreement which covers 98% of goods. If Trump slaps tariffs on Canada ye can just threaten to sell all your oil and gas to the EU. That ought to shut him up.

[@cormacbrowne9571]

Such a naive statement 'everyone gets a veto nonsense ' . I do not want the eu to be ruled by majority- France and Germany would decide just about everything and in their interest first. Just like the mercursor deal; German cars for South American beef ( we don't need the beef).

[@Lawrence4000-s3k]

That doesn't sound very democratic, tbh. There is no common European 'demos' - each country looks after itself and rarely gives a thought to the wider 'common-good' good of Europe. Ironically it was probably the UK that did most for Europe.

[@naor85]

You Europeans really live in a bubble. Handing your sovereignty over to foreign diplomats and actually thinking it’s a smart thing to do.

[@mirabeaux851]

14:34 I think Scottish concerns about joining the euro zone are very valid given the significant step it is and the major disadvantages that come with it, as well as the headache, inducing international politics that is a constant tug-of-war over European fiscal and monetary policy Both Irish and Scottish national parties are anxious, but they really need to first make sure they have a solid supermajority in order to pull it off

[@LawpickingLocksmith]

James, in my 67 years I spent the first 20 in central Europe to listen to mainly the same 2 first news topics about 80% of the time: Unresolvable situation in Israel with bad Arabs fighting good Jews. No2 was the situation in Northern Ireland where we got the perception that bad Protestants were causing undue harm to good Catholics. Finally in 2010 I got a chance to drive a little car all over the UK and around the entire Ireland. I was really curious whether there was just one or really 2 cultures in Ireland. My personal impression was to really only see one of them. Opulence in the North, happier poverty in the South with closer ties to ancient cultural happenings. Scots really do have a distinct cultural identity. One wonders if they had not screwed up on the Darien Gap they could really exist as an own country. Of course when it comes to Iran, it was the greed for oil that made them oil consumers to install a puppet government to suit their financial advantage. The reversal of this in 1979 was extreme. Close observers did not wonder at all. When Barak Obama was handing out cash to the unemployed in Kiev so American firms could snatch up all them lucrative gas contracts. Money talks, even Germany is still enslaved to American firms who in turn rob the public: Think of GM, Solar firms, Bayer buys Roundup from Monsanto knowing its use was going to be banned in the EU. Now deja vu with battery factories.

[@rod9829]

You are the first person to describe NI as opulent

[@harshbutfair8993]

In 2010 Ireland was still struggling after the shock of the 2008 crash which hit Ireland particularly hard, but describing it as happy poverty seems frankly bizarre.

[@FyldeMedia]

When Ireland gets an airforce and navy capable of defending itself without England then it might have a chance of unification.

[@thomasbootham2707]

England doesn’t defend Ireland the uk royal airforce and Royal Navy does

[@Vaultboy-ke2jj]

I really wish people would stop saying England when talking about the UK

[@thomasbootham2707]

@@Vaultboy-ke2jj same mate

[@michaelogden5958]

Re: Breaking Treaties. I got a jury summons a while back regarding a challenge to a prenuptual agreement. Before jury selection, the judge laid out the basics and asked the jury pool if there were any questions. I respectfully asked, "If this is a legitimate legal contract, signed and witnessed, why are we here?". I was thanked for showing up and politely dismissed from the jury pool. No idea how it turned out.

[@Gravadlax-ki7rh]

Dismissed for wrong-think. You probably have a file now. 😆

[@mrgabagoo580]

The EU violated the Budapest memorandum in 2013-14 when it applied economic coercion and interfered in Ukraine's internal politics to overthrow the elected government. Not to mention that a memorandum is not a binding treaty, and afaik the USA doesn't truly recognize binding treaties as binding because no incoming administration can be bound by the promises and agreements of a previous administration (notwithstanding the fact that by conversation they usually do uphold previous agreements - but that is by convention, not obligation)

[@bilic8094]

I can't see how any deal could be made on Ukraine the trust is completely gone after both Budapest and Minsk agreements Trump keeps saying he'll have a deal hammered out between the two sides.

[@mrgabagoo580]

@@bilic8094 1: What Russia occupies it keeps. 2: An agreement on Ukrainian neutrality that Russia can believe in and, if necessary, enforce. Russia has spent too much on this war in terms of both blood and treasure to accept anything less. Sadly for Ukraine, what it wants is irrelevant. The resolution of this war will be between the great powers and the minor power that allowed itself to be used as a pawn in the great game will be sacrificed. It's not right, but it is reality. Those most to blame for this tragedy are the Ukrainian elites who chose to sacrifice their people on the altar of self enrichment. Russia was never going to allow Ukraine to join NATO. The USA was never going to pass up an opportunity to expand its power and influence. However, the leadership of Ukraine could have refused being used as a pawn.

[@xunqianbaidu6917]

The Ukrainian people overthrew their government. Deal with it, russky.

[@bilic8094]

@@mrgabagoo580 Putin says he wants the four regions and a neutral Ukraine as staring points of any agreement how they'll resolve the rest it's impossible to know.

[@Vaultboy-ke2jj]

What a laughable statement. Russia had applied economic coercion to Ukraine to refuse to integrate with Europe. Russia had also interfered with Ukrainian politics including poisoning candidates.

[@rfalconator7896]

Regarding Q1. One big reason why nations should follow international treaties is because they want other nation to follow the international treaties that benefit them. There is a tacit agreement that by following others' rules, others will follow your rules. Of course, there needs to be mechanism to enforce the treaties and force ompliance, such as tariffs, arbitration, or international military intervention if needed. A world where the threat if military force is not plausible as a means to enforce treaties becomes a world where treaties have no value.

[@ariwatman4665]

I’m surprised about your answer regarding Ukraine giving up their nuclear weapons, remember everyone Ukraine used to be part of Rusia it was Russian who developed the nuclear facilities and weapons which means it was their weapons not Ukrainian

[@honved1]

Dunce

[@AlexxAmadeo]

First of all, it wasn’t Russia, it was the USSR, which was made up of separate republics, at least de jure, with the right, once again at least de jure, to leave the union. Second of all, many of the people who developed the space industry and the nuclear weapons in the USSR were Ukrainians. Ukraine was - and is - one of the brain centers of that entire landmass. The only thing you’re right about is that the control over the nuclear weapons was exercised from Moscow and not Kyiv.

[@bernd_das_brot6911]

This must be a golden era for content sadly

[@bob_0146]

Ireland will unify Under the British banner 🇬🇧💪

[@spencerburke]

Dream on... Have you forgotten why there are no rubbish bins in the Tube system?

[@robertyoung8785]

Hopefully, free Scotland.

[@cierus465]

The Budapest Memorandum was null and void when the West overthew the elected government of Ukraine in 2014 and when Ukraine and the West not only failed to enact but totally violated the Minsk II treaty.

[@canuckguy0313]

Wow thank you so much for your answer to my question, I didn’t realize how important it is! (And I share your worry and fear that there might not be anything we can do to stop it, and could lead to no treaties being signed because what’s to guarantee it?)

[@deanseawa]

I've been a regular watcher of your videos but this has crossed the line into a clickbait thumbnail image. I do not watch clickbait.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

The video discusses Scottish independence and Irish unification. I don't know what the issue is? (BTW, "clickbait" refers to thumbnails and titles that suggest one topic but don't engage with the subject. This clearly does.)

[@Alex-gd9li]

@@JamesKerLindsayI think he has a point. Using “the end of Britain?” on the thumbnail feels a little clickbait. I certainly clicked on this video expecting you to take the stance that Scotland and Ireland would soon be leaving the UK.

[@loganpatmon3957]

Great video!

[@WanderingCelts]

First-time viewer here. I have to disagree on your points on treaties. When Britain was an empire, it consistently broke treaties when it suited. During the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars. In the Americas. Against native tribes continuously. Indeed, Hitler spoke of modelling the Reich on the British Empire. As to treaties, he broke them on the grounds of german interest, much like England did for centuries. In Ireland, there used to be an old saying, The perfidious English. "How do you know a liar? He speaks English. The irony of the UK moaning about broken treaties is a sad indication of a lack of knowledge of their own actions. I would argue that the example set when the worlds policeman has become the norm now. The UK has no moral right to complain.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

In that case, I would suggest that you perhaps watch more of my videos. My whole channel is about the development of international law since 1945. The global system that existed before that was very different. My big theme is precisely that we don't want to go back to the "might is right" world of the nineteenth century.

[@WanderingCelts]

@JamesKerLindsay I will indeed. Will I might disagree, I enjoy your discourse.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@@WanderingCelts Thanks. Occasional disagreement - politely framed - is good. :-)

[@amotaba]

Q&A are your best videos. You could consider doing them more often.

[@loneprimate]

In Canada the courts have recognized that if the people of a province have a referendum that succeeds on a clear, unambiguous question (and one that doesn't promise the moon from the federal government), then the rest of the country has a democratic obligation to negotiate their exit on the basis of good faith. The key word is "negotiate". Nobody has the right to just vote and go. It affects the other partners in Confederation and they deserve a say in how it happens too, and under what mutually-obligatory conditions.

[@user-rs5gp1dh8u]

loneprimate Scotland is not a province it is a country. And recognised as such.

[@brianmcmahon6469]

You’re missing the possibility that the citizens of the Republic have a say in this.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Yes and no. The vote applies to Northern Ireland. If Ireland doesn’t want it, then we are in a very different place.

[@brianmcmahon6469]

As with the Good Friday Agreement the referendum, if held, will take place in both jurisdictions.