Jared Diamond - Why aren't Aliens Already Here?

[@greyeyed123]

Discovering green extraterrestrials wouldn't change religion any more than discovering the earth isn't flat, or discovering that the earth isn't the center of the universe, or discovering evolution changed anything. Religious people will either say "God did that too," or deny it altogether, just as they always have.

[@phapnui]

You're right. The Pope is onboard with ET's. The man who invented religion a genius for figuring out a way to control people. Present day politicians use the same method. Create fear, claim solutions for protection and good life.

[@RoundtreeattheGrosvernor]

Not bad.

[@lads.7715]

Nope. Discovering that other beings are vastly ahead of us will have the same effect as Missionaries did on isolated, primitives. We would inevitably change our most basic beliefs and cultures to become smarter and obtain more goodies - IF the Aliens wouldn’t essentially be dictating to us to begin with.

[@phapnui]

@@lads.7715 Interesting. You describe "Cargo Cults" of the Pacific. But I don't think we will have to deal with this ET business for a very long time. There seems to be many limiting factors involved in interstellar travel. Maybe beings evolve to an advanced state and think, "what's the point?"

[@veralenora4033]

As a committed Lutheran Christian, I've often wondered why all Christian theologians / missionaries aren't pushing space travel!?! There was a fascinating series of short stories in "Analog" science fiction magazine that dealt with the discovery of an alien race that was *Jewish*. That is, their theology and traditions were identical with Earth Judaism and had been finally accepted by Jewish theologians as being Jewish.

[@ClassicRock1973]

It is FAR to soon to ask why haven't we found aliens. It's like a snail traveling 2 inches into the ocean and asking why had he not found a whale yet

[@secullenable]

this

[@Azeminad]

But if the snail never has hope of going beyond that 2 inches with the snails current understand of physics does any of this even matter? They might as well not exist right? Disclaimer: am a retard

[@watercolourmark]

I have always assumed that once you become a super-intelligent race you do two things, shield your planet and conceal your location.

[@redglazedeyez6652]

from who??....

[@mcdus78]

mark grant I disagree. If ever we become one of them (highly-advanced race). We will definitely reach for the stars. Humans cannot contain themselves on earth. Our species will explore the cosmos and invade another planet for resources. It’s the all for the taking much like the spoils of war (if ever we encounter one with the so called aliens). Domination, Invasion or whatever. It’s inevitable.

[@pureruckuspower2165]

@@mcdus78 because humans act more like a virus than anything else.

[@fraser_mr2009]

nope. you colonize the universe.

[@watercolourmark]

@@fraser_mr2009 Colonization is seen by many as an unintelligent thing to be doing now, and we are far from being super-intelligent.

[@ameralbadry6825]

The most intelligent conversation in regards to this subject.

[@pukulu]

Jared Diamond is a great intellectual but he's overlooking something. Any intelligent being that is capable of traversing space and visiting earth is likely to have managed to sustain a technological society for quite awhile, perhaps 1000 years or more. Such an alien being, if one exists, would have solved most or all of its important ecological sustainability issues on its own planet. I agree that it would look down in a somewhat disparaging manner on human beings but it would in all likelihood not have the same urge to conquer other creatures as humans do.

[@nickellis1553]

pukulu THANK YOU!!! once you get to the level of interstellar travel your civilization can damn near 3D print whole planets. This guys acting like there gonna take all our oil and stick probes in our asses.

[@karih9592]

The Reality and Spirituality of Life in the Universe is not what you think it is.

[@lixus2024]

Compared to cockroach's level of intelligence, Humans have managed to sustain a very advanced technological society for 1000s years, it doesn't mean they are friendly to cockroaches. You over looked the fact that before you become an advanced technological society, evolution already shaped and selected your genes to have criminal behaviours toward other rival species.

[@pukulu]

@@lixus2024 well, you have contributed to any argument suggesting that any technologically advanced alien species that travels to other solar systems will have something other than mere exploratory impulses. Furthermore, it seems very unlikely to me that a technologically advanced alien creature will manage to solve its sustainability issues on its home world. It will probably use the combustion of hydrocarbon reserves in a manner something like what we've done and as a result change the atmosphere on its home world in a way that harms itself or causes its own extinction. Astronomer Adam Frank has written about this. Human beings do not have a thoroughly objective view of themselves. The "Star Trek" science fiction series provides a good example. This notion that we will evolve culturally from a rapacious, exploitative, pugnacious species into one with an enlightened view of itself and other species is quite self-flattering. There are individuals with somewhat enlightened points of view, perhaps Carl Sagan being an example, but they are few and far between. Persons with a more crude perspective are far more common.

[@lixus2024]

​@@pukulu The aliens who can travel using wormholes, technically own their galaxy & need to keep it safe by getting rid of any intelligent & dangerous rival specially if that rival is the human specie who kills his own. In the other hand the aliens who can’t use wormholes need 100s of years to reach the nearest solar system, they will age & die during the trip so their “on board born grand children” visit you to say “hi”?? Of course not ! Such desperate mission is only to look for a new home. They may be intelligent because they r microscopic entities that share their tiny brains as one big could. They may be giants that see themselves so different than our animal form of life & treat us the way we treat vegetables or even microbes.

[@SmartDave60]

And the more advanced we become technologically, the more we are a threat to our own existence.

[@myothersoul1953]

Yes but not because it's not the technology's fault, it's the users' fault.

[@mscir]

We have a tiger by the tail, we have to work to manage out tech properly.

[@DocDanTheGuitarMan]

Or is it the opposite. Humans love a disaster story.

[@DocDanTheGuitarMan]

Hello the issue of not communicating is ridiculous. Shall we shut down all radio and television stations across the planet tomorrow? Shall we ground all the satellites? Dismantle the ISS?

[@SmartDave60]

@@DocDanTheGuitarMan the dinosaurs lasted 165 million years. The modern form of humans only evolved about 200,000 years ago.

[@expeditierobin6113]

Jared makes good arguments about how small the chance is that intelligent life forms develop, and on top of that also develop space ships and technology. but he doesn't take 2 things into account: - it is possible that life on other planets has produced a much higher percentage of intelligent life forms, due to the specific and unique developments of life on that planet, and 2: it is possible that there are other forms of space travel that we simply cannot conceive or design because we have a specific sort of intelligence.

[@10splitter]

The laws of physics that govern space and time are inviolate. There is no "space folding," there is no "warp drive." The reason why no persons from an alien civilization have visited us is because the notion of interstellar travel is so daunting that no intelligent being would ever agree to attempt it.

[@geemanbmw]

This gentleman knows no anymore about what's out there in the vast cosmos than the next guy.

[@JJJJ-gl2uf]

Maybe not, but he's able to articulate his thoughts a lot more clearly than many other people.

[@vincentmack37]

problem with humans is we interpret every possible form of life through our lens, extra terrestrial life may be so totally to unrecognisable to us, we keep looking for terrestrial life in outer space

[@djacob7]

+Vincent..... extra terrestrial life may be as recognizable to us as we are to worms.

[@knpstrr]

So how about the question: Is there life out there in the universe, recognizable to us?

[@p3tr0114]

Have you conducted a survey and found that all people think like that? I don't think like that.

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

That isn't true. Especially among scientists who have actually considered the question. It's not even true of the general public. AFAIK it's only true of schlock TV sci-fi series.

[@volgawolfhounds741]

actually, chances are that aliens would follow the same template as we have to become technologically advanced. Straight forward-looking eyes, a brain advanced for eating meat, etc etc.

[@Cheefrocco]

my first encounter with jared diamond. i find him to be very intelligent and logical. i find myself agreeing with him on this question

[@phapnui]

Guns, Germs and Steel. Great book by him.

[@hamiltonmays4256]

@@phapnui I also found The World Before Yesterday a wonderful read.

[@jamesbentonticer4706]

@@phapnui it really is a good book.

[@pushrod49]

his argument about earth and there being only one species that evolved to the human level of intelligence makes a lot of sense and I've never thought of it in that manner. I've always thought there has to be more intelligent life out there but I have to agree with this line of reasoning. Great series of interview and thank you for the effort.

[@HebaruSan]

Interstellar travel is really, really, really hard. Communication's not too easy either once you get past the nearest few stars.

[@UteChewb]

Fiction deliberately ignores the scale of interstellar space because if you are honest about it then trying to explain how you can travel to the stars is very hard. I am a science fiction writer, trained in physics and mathematics, worked as a software engineer. Interstellar travel is so hard that you have to hope for (or in fiction, invent) a miracle to allow any form of feasible travel to the stars.

[@HebaruSan]

***** Yup. So we tend to develop a mental image of a "galactic federation" with starships zipping all over the place, and if we forget the simplifying assumptions that went into that picture, it can look mysterious when we don't see it in reality.

[@golden-63]

Yes, interstellar travel is very difficult, but according to physics and mathematics, it is at least *possible.* IMO, if something is possible, it has already been done somewhere and at some time in the universe. "The Universe is huge and very old and rare things happen all the time." L. Krauss.

[@UteChewb]

There are various options. Generational starships: don't violate physics but would be slow and prone to fail. Warp: no physical support but useful for fiction. Jump: ditto as in warp. Bussard ramjet: depends on efficiency of trapping hydrogen and efficiency of fusion engine, maybe but sublight, and limited cargo. Then there are the distances: 20 light years, a small distance, will take generations unless you can get up to a speed near c. If you want to make use of time dilation you will need to get quite close to the speed of light, say 0.99c or more, that will mean monstrous amounts of energy poured into acceleration, far more than if you turned an equivalent mass of the ship into pure energy and converted it into kinetic energy. Perhaps there are other ways--let's hope so.

[@justgivemethetruth]

Even if FTL travel is possible, imagine how expensive and what a commitment it would have to be ... when would anyone have all of that, and a purpose to do it? Maybe only if they are a super-old and super-successful race and there are probably too few of them out there.

[@xit1254]

He's making rational arguments and not emotional appeals. The fact that they are pessimistic is unfortunate, and I hope he's wrong, but given the evidence of human history they make sense.

[@TheGodlessGuitarist]

To be honest it is hard to make strong arguments either way regarding intelligent life beyond Earth because we simply don't know enough, and it may turn out that we never will. Andromeda, one of the nearest galaxies to our own is 2.5 million light years away. We can't really hope to traverse distances like that, and the amount of power required to communicate effectively over such distances is in the range of stellar masses. So the likelihood of ever detecting life outside our own galaxy is practically zero. That limits our search to within our own galaxy. Is 100 billion stars enough to produce the right environments and give rise to more than one technological civilisation within time frames that allow them to make some kind of contact? No one knows. All we know is that we haven't, so far. In 4 billions years the Milky Way and Andromeda will collide. In the approach to that 'event' there could be a frenzy of desperate attempts to communicate by extant technological civilisations, but humanity will very likely be long exinct by then. We're barely likely to survive the next hundred years given our current behaviours. [end waffle]

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

AI fan OTOH, I won't be surprised if the first evidence we have of advanced ET's comes from observations of other galaxies. We can see billions of whole galaxies. Even at those distances, if someone is manufacturing black holes or Dyson spheres, or herding globular clusters, or who knows what, we might notice. It is a hundred billion times more likely that someone is doing something really massive "out there" than in our one galaxy.

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

AI fan I bet interplanetary/ space colonizing civilizations are effectively immortal.

[@TheGodlessGuitarist]

Dyson spheres require fantastical feats of science, engineering and an abundance of suitable resources. This makes them even less probable than our own existence. Detecting them is a feat in it's own right. It maybe that there is a resource barrier or even an inherent sociological or population dynamics barrier that prevents evolution to such extents. Not saying it's impossible but it is certianly less likely than our own existence, and that by any measure is the most rare thing in the universe that we know of. It would however be fantastic to discover intelligent life elsewhere, and I find it hard to believe that we are alone.

[@WILLYLYNCH.]

@@twirlipofthemists3201 you would be looking at a civilization in the past. It takes millions of years just for the light to reach our eyes as I'm sure you know.

[@The22on]

Hey, I'm already here! Greetings from your neighboring galaxy, Andromeda!

[@dancagle2533]

Beam me over!

[@madmax2976]

Too many assumptions to make any answers useful.

[@kenhutley971]

madmax2976: Even the question (in the title) is assumptive!

[@kirkcaldykanka9421]

He is intelligently speculating using the limited evidence we have. It s interesting and fun. Of course he has no real idea of the truth. He knows this.

[@user-ys9to2ie7k]

Finally. Someone I'd like to sit down and have a chat with!

[@Colombia20102018]

Murph nothing of what this guy is saying is original. Many others have been saying the same things for decades

[@user-ys9to2ie7k]

@@Colombia20102018 I agree and I would just like to take it to the next level!

[@haimbenavraham1502]

Observing the evolution of life on this planet, we can see that the rise of intelligence is clearly connected with survival. In other words, the world of 'tooth & claw' was a precursor to the evolution of intelligence. Paradoxically for the next phase of evolution its necessary to recognise the part played by agression for the evolution of intelligence. And unite together to 'aggressively' protect the planet.

[@veralenora4033]

Yes. That is "dumb themselves down" knowing that's the only way to reach developing civilizations. The more I think about this, the more I agree with Ray Kurzweill: we are alone.

[@lomps]

No one knows wtf is going on and Jared did not really move the needle on this one. We are in an infinite mystery and I think the distances and timescales are so unfathomably huge that the possibility of a visit from another civilization or life form seems very, very, remote. But again we may find out that we are already in the midst of other life forms from other worlds and they are currently interacting with us...no one really knows...

[@fpdima]

Interesting stuff to think about. Thanks for putting this out there.

[@ernststravoblofeld]

Please pick a decibel level and stick with it. Please. I like the videos, but the various sound levels amount to an auditory atrocity.

[@clintwolf4495]

Extremely interesting interview. Thanks.

[@martinzitter4725]

"Billions and billions..." But Carl Sagan never said it.

[@secullenable]

I would agree the chances are low, but not zero. When you take into account the vastness of the universe and the number of planets estimated to be able to sustain life (many billions), one has to conclude that there are thousands of intelligent civilizations putting out spacecraft right this moment. However, that very universal vastness also means that the chances of one of those civilizations living close enough to us to make contact before either of becomes extinct is pretty low. I don't think 100% of civilizations are doomed to destroy themselves but when you take into account other factors like asteroids, supernovas etc, then a limited lifespan for intelligent civilizations is probably common. I think the chances of us detecting a radio signal or other indirect evidence of alien existence (including of aliens civilizations that may be extinct) is much higher. And given that we have only recently started looking for these types of signals, it is much too early to say. If we did not find evidence in the next 1000 years then you'd start to think we never will unless we radically improve our technology. In this case we would have to discover some way to get across the universe in faster than light speeds (wormholes etc..) that would allow us peek further into the distance than would otherwise be possible. Indeed, attaining such a technology might even be a prerequisite for a civilization being able to look far enough outside their own backyard to confirm they are not alone.

[@fredk9999]

Feel free to interview Travis Walton versus these super intellectuals

[@WyreForestBiker]

Enjoy this channel but one small caveat … why the small blurred out section over the opening lines ?? I've noticed its becoming a common theme on a number of channels , supposedly somebody's idea of an "artsy " touch that's nothing more than a bloody annoyance !

[@lacamila666]

"in his or her image" Loved that part.

[@yackawaytube]

With current human technology, we can travel from 1 end of Milky way to the other end in 2B years (that's 0.005% of light speed). If we can assume advanced civilization can achieve a speed 1000x faster 5% of light speed), then it takes 2M years. Milky way is 13.5B years old, but habitable planets may be 3B to 11B years ago. So what does it all mean? I have no idea

[@johnhetherington8830]

True it's a dangerous game but it's nearly over anyway

[@alanzom1503]

We've been sending radio signals for over 70 years, so our footprint in space is a sphere with a diameter of about 70 light years. On the flip side, we've never detected an alien radio signal. So we can say almost certainly that within a radius of about 70 light years from the solar system, we are the most advanced life form.

[@AnthonyWilliams-ew3wp]

You’re right, but actually it’s 100 years so a radius of 100 light years. Which in cosmic terms is next door.

[@michaelmcgarrity6987]

Jared Diamond is here. They say there is no Space Aliens. Diamond is a great Human.

[@Jonnygurudesigns]

Well said!

[@saky228]

The question is not "why are we not contacted" but rather "why are we being lied to about the contact"...

[@hamiltonmays4256]

Assuming we are being lied to, how would we know? Your claim presupposes special knowledge of contact, which I'm confident nobody on Earth possesses yet. Do you know something the rest of us don't, or are you just taking the piss?

[@saky228]

@@hamiltonmays4256 do the research. Canadian defense minister and Israeli defense minister is talking about this. And many many others. There was a disclosure event in 2001 where ex military personel talked about this stuff. Air force pilotes also. There is a lot of information about this.

[@hamiltonmays4256]

@@saky228 "Research", you say. How amusing. I didn't realize there was a new definition of the word. Browsing rumor-sodden conspiracy-nut clickbait for titillation and bias-confirmation jollies doesn't cut it as actual research here in objective reality. On another note, who is it that you claim is lying to "us"?

[@saky228]

@@hamiltonmays4256 Look up "Disclosure event 2001". Look up Pentagon UFO's. Listen to the Canadian Minister of defence talking about this subject. Listen to countless Air Force pilotes talking about this stuff. Listen to Bob Lazar. Listen to Dr. Steven Greer. I gave you more than enough material to go through and see for yourself.

[@evanjameson5437]

a coherent and straight forward/rational explanation--and he would be 100% correctomundo

[@barbaraschumacher3861]

I hate to say it, but Jared Diamond is right.

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

Maybe. He is right about what the risks are, but he is only speculating about the outcomes.

[@roarblast7332]

Riddled with assumptions. The truth is that we have no idea. This is much like the question of god. We have no way of knowing presently. Why pick a side?

[@graficagr4273]

very good

[@Rickdeckard2020]

...Meanwhile, as they are talking, the bacteria crawling on the globe in the background behind the speaker, ask themselves "yeah but, If there really are multi-cellular life forms out there, why haven't they contacted us yet?"

[@paulwillisorg]

no

[@ClassicRock1973]

@Too Many People how do you know?

[@Colombia20102018]

too many people but how can you be so sure?

[@IFKY]

This guy is spot on.

[@ffxiarcadius]

Asking Jared why arent aliens here? *Answer* Guns, Germs and Steel - of course!

[@highjenks3d]

The best answer ever given to said question, based of facts thst we know, not in sci-fi mystism, if he isn't sight on the money right he is very close to it

[@johnraymond9170]

This is Frank drakes theory. He estimated tens of thousands of planets with life in our galaxy alone. The math related to that was sketchy at best. But I do agree, mathematically it’s almost impossible for us to be here.

[@MaloPiloto]

What Jared Diamond says makes great sense to me. I think that we are alone- and I sure hope that we are!

[@JustinLHopkins]

Life on earth is comprised of the most abundant materials in the universe. Oxygen is the third most prevalent gas in the universe and water is everywhere. We know that most stars have at least one planet and we know that earth-like planets exist. When Hubble can focus on a random patch of sky that’s the size of a grain of sand and picture thousands of galaxies, the immensity of the universe starts to become clear. We already know that life can arise because we’re here, so do you really think this has only happened once in 14 billion years? It is the height of human arrogance to think we’re alone or special. To say we’re alone is like dipping a bucket into the ocean and declaring that no whales exist. It would be much more terrifying to be alone in the universe. Why on earth would you want to be alone? What would be the point? Why would there be trillions of planets only for life to exist on one? It makes no sense from a numbers perspective.

[@smittymcjob2582]

The implicit assumption in any argument for intelligent life outside of the Earth has always been that even though the probability of intelligent life in any given star system is almost zero, multiplying that "close to zero" by the number of stars out there makes the probability of intelligent life anywhere out there larger than zero. This video makes the argument that the probability of intelligent life in a given star system is even closer to zero than previously assumed. But is it now "zero" enough to make the total probability zero? He doesn't say. So basically he hasn't said anything substantive. To defend his argument, Jared needs to specify how much closer to zero his estimated probability of intelligent life is compared to the "close to zero" assumed in the original argument and then demonstrate how his "closer to zero" times the number of stars out there is still zero.

[@allanfifield8256]

Asking if we are alone in the Universe is a silly question. Other galaxies are too far to ever know. Asking if we are alone in our galaxy is the real question.

[@sirxavior1583]

Asking the wrong question to the wrong person. Diamond is an intelligent individual, but his specialty is in Medicine, Ornithology and Human Geographer not Astrophysics. The interviewer should have made that distinction before interviewing him for example I have a tooth ache instead of seeing a dentist I go to the Vet instead. The Vet will have knowledge on how to treat my tooth pain but the dentist would be better.

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

Diamond has written several popular books that are relevant to the topic.

[@justgivemethetruth]

It's kind of sad that he so calmly talks about humanity destroying itself, and thus any intelligent species is assumed to be almost unavoidably suicidal. That should be the number one discussion happening today all over the world ... how the heck are we doing to keep from destroying our planet and each other?

[@MultiBikerboy1]

Dec 2017....’to the stars academy ‘ start briefing out disclosure of alien interaction with this planet....oh dear....how could these gents be so wrong?

[@GeoffV-k1h]

Most people are looking from this question through the eyes of an anthropologist (understandably) but without realizing it.. This means that we tend to compare human life with 'aliens'. In reality, we have no way of knowing the nature of how life might develop on other planets, not their technology - if they even need that.

[@jameshudson169]

6:30 what about those communities who try to save a dying whale who doesn't have a chance in hell? or all the millions we spend on trying to cure our pet weasel's cancer?

[@ismailm7883]

The Interviewer looks like Albert Einstein.

[@brud1729]

The space travel that Jared seemed to suggest, aliens noticing us and coming over for a visit, would require travel speed faster then the speed of light. Robert didn't take issue with that supposition so I'd guess he didn't find it out of the realm of possibility. At the present time that's a tremendous leap of faith. Being notice by a species in another galaxy would be nice, but we'd not know of their observations for many thousands of years, supposing that we last that long. Being noticed by species in our own galaxy might take, at less than the speed of light, thousands of years to get the friendly visit for a Sunday dinner. And the same time to get back home. At what cost? Space travel needed for such alien visits is not yet on the drawing boards.

[@SevenFootPelican]

Didn’t he write Germs, Guns and Steel? Genius!

[@johngeier8692]

There may be at least one million close earth analog planets with aerobic life in this galaxy, however, very few would harbour advanced civilisations capable of space travel.

[@44hawk28]

I'm trying to figure out why he thinks we've never been contacted by beings from somewhere else? Has he not read the Sumerian Tablets. These are the people who ostensibly invented writing so you have to at least give Credence to the concept that they wouldn't write down things that weren't important or that they didn't think we're true. He actually makes the statement that life created intelligence. How does evolution work that way, dinosaurs were on the earth for 700 million years I didn't build not one road, not one building, didn't even start using electricity. Yet man, according to his mitochondrial DNA, has only existed for at best 200,000 years, and we're already venturing into space. Under what paradigm do these people think that we have not been visited and that our Evolution hasn't been manipulated by these selfsame beings? Then Within just the first couple of minutes he says why aren't they sending us messages? Beings that can either travel vast distances at what is apparently faster than what we consider the speed of light, or travel in an inter-dimensional fashion, are going to use a radio or any other type of communication that we are just barely starting to use. What are they supposed to do, dumb themselves down?

[@ferdynandthegreat2921]

44 ha All great points

[@justgivemethetruth]

We are alone in the universe the same way we are alone in life. That is, we are us, and there are others out there, but how alone or together we are much consider the gulf between us. Is it enough to know, or to have faith that aliens exist? I feel certain that they do, but the restrictions of space travel, time, knowledge, resources are so great only the smallest connections, even just radio communications may be possible. But, one reaction is to be scared, despite thinking that there is no way for aliens to attack us, if we are wrong it is a terminal error.

[@TheControlLogix]

So, an intelligent society capable of technology is self destructive and short lived. Why?

[@markw6031]

The fact that we barely made it through the cold war

[@cusid0]

Because societies generally continue to repeat the formula that made them grow until the picture reverses from progress to decline. There is a convenience law of civilization that says: once you gain such benefits, you hardly leave them without it becoming a destructive body and lead all to the collapse. Hence, the more a society repeats the formula, the more unlikely it becomes to choose otherwise less harmful. As if someone tried to commit suicide once and that would be the efficient motor for the next ones until it works out.

[@TheGodlessGuitarist]

Evolution proceeds because of competition. The fight between species and invidiuals within species is hardcoded into our DNA. Our only hope to overcome the combination of this instinct, apocalyptic technology and resource depletion is our conscious intelligence and ultimately our choices. If we don't collectively make the right choices we will end.

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

Historically, societies don't last. Their technologies and successes are often the causes of their ultimate failure. It's not necessarily an unavoidable law of nature - but self destruction was similarly avoidable for the ones that did self-destruct, and they did it anyway. So we should, like, learn from them, and definitely avoid self destruction. Especially now that our civ is becoming one big global enterprise. Size increases risk, not security.

[@TheGodlessGuitarist]

Yep, it takes a lifetime to succeed at life and only a moment to fail forever. This was true only for individuals until the 20th century. Now it is true for an entire planet. So long as our doomsday weapons exist it is only a matter of time.

[@MichaelDembinski]

I'd ask for Jared Diamond to discuss this face-to-face with Paul "Aliens are Saintly Beings" Davies. An utterly different point of view from two eminent and rational scientific minds.

[@brianrichards7006]

What evidence does Mr Diamond have for green beans on other planets???

[@smittymcjob2582]

At this very moment, there's a trio of alien ships navigating towards Earth on a quest to prove space is curved and hoping to reach their own planet by moving away from it. Their arrival on Earth may unfortunately be a reenactment of Santa Maria, Nina, and Pinta landing on Hispaniola and the subsequent fate of its natives.

[@smb123211]

Spot on unless we manage to hold on a hundred years with the same exponential rate of progress and colonize the stars.

[@jeffreyburdges1293]

Yes exactly, intelegent species transgress their planetary boundaries. Also.. “No civilization can possibly survive to an interstellar spacefaring phase unless it limits its numbers” (and consumption) ― Carl Sagan, Cosmos Aliens might be friendly because interstellar travel itself requires that they master their own collalpse. We however have not mastered our own collapse, so we're not even capable of interstellar travel yet, but this maybe one reasons we're not yet interesting to talk to.

[@ProjectUnity]

They are.

[@thsc9119]

Let's assume that what appears to be the case is true, that there is no solution to traversing the vast distances of outer space faster than light. That alone would indicate that we've never been visited and never will be. And ditto for our prospects of visiting other worlds. More worrisome is the lack of signals coming our way that can only have been produced by a technology. We may simply be alone.

[@bradsmith9189]

Same old “billions and billions of stars” argument. They NEVER mention the fact that the probability of life starting anywhere by chance is 1 in 10 to the 164th power. That makes the total number of stars look like nothing. There are only 10 to the 80th elementary particles in the entire observable universe! Small wonder the most recent Oxford U study says we are almost surely alone.

[@michaelstanko5896]

I just watched a video about the 10^164 probability and it is just one of those facts that truly bends your mind when you think about it.

[@kenneths.perlman1112]

So let’s say we are completely alone in this galaxy. Only another 2 trillion galaxies to go. In the observable universe.

[@jamesruscheinski8602]

Communication with intelligent alien civilizations much more likely than travel between star systems? If try to communicate with alien civilizations light years away would have to use light / electromagnetism or quantum faster than light communication?

[@KRYPTOS_K5]

The essential root of the best SETI skepticism remains on the steps 1 and 2 of Jareds argument (rare Earth and rare tech species on Earth plus the great silence). Jared Diamond you are cool in any age and any continent. Brazil

[@patrickboudreau3846]

Humans are so selfcentered that it is unimaginable that aliens would simply not be interested in us !

[@serenity748]

he sure likes his aliens coloured in green

[@ottodetroit]

The aliens in our galaxy are introverts and homebodies. Perfectly fine staying home. Probably have a new Netflix show to focus on too, so why leave their home solar system?

[@Mr.Altavoz]

I agree 100% with Jarret!

[@MrSbygneus]

great guys really

[@stoneysdead689]

I wouldn't say I agree 100% with this train of thought but- I do lean toward it. I think one reason you can expect any intelligent species to at least be endanger of blowing themselves up or otherwise destroying themselves in someway is because intelligence is incremental. You don't go from no intelligence to exceedingly intelligent- you come along in small steps- which means every intelligent species eventually has to cross that threshold of time where they're capable of destroying themselves and not yet wise enough to avoid doing just that. And I'm sure some small percentage of species make it past this threshold but- I bet it at least works as a thinner huh? A sort of cosmic Darwin test- that we're currently failing.

[@zebonautsmith1541]

it takes a billion different species to produce the one species that fills the intelligence niche that is capable of spaceflight etc.

[@jamesruscheinski8602]

If there are more advanced alien civilizations in galaxy, will probably know about us before we know about them, in which case it might help to communicate with them?

[@raymondparsley7442]

Just another point of view, nothing more.... We're still left with the proverbial statement: "I (we) don't know!".... Even so, discussion and speculation is a needed and necessary part of our human makeup.

[@yugandali]

Wait a minute, we know eight or nine planets, so it's not 100%. Nitpicking.

[@carlotaa.mendezgomez1104]

He forgets point four; the possibility of a civilisation which eventually succeds and doen't destroy itself. If that civilisation existed, they would surely have overcome stupidity and would never act the way we are used to.

[@bltwegmann8431]

This man seems to really loathe western civilization.

[@nicolasdelaforge7420]

it's debatable whether we're intelligent life, though there are a handful of people who have intelligence.

[@8698gil]

I think intelligent life exists or has existed elsewhere. I don't believe we have ever been visited, though. The technology involved and the distances are so vast and nearly insurmountable that it would be very unlikely to happen.

[@supratim17roy]

Have they seen CE5 contact?

[@username6135]

Infinity is not enough time for them to get here.

[@polarbianarchy3333]

In humans, dominance brings violence and aggression. If we can realize our common humanity, we can change. Todsy we have the knowledge and technology to transform our world and relationships to mutual cooperation. Yes, pretty far fetched, but true.

[@Obeijin]

Maybe they don't want to send out space craft ?

[@spencerchamp]

they need a sound editor..

[@paulpatton41]

Diamond's argument is inconsistent. First he argues that technological civilizations are unlikely to survive more than a short time due to military conflict and environmental destructiveness, and that we are therefore unlikely to find them. Then he argues that if we found an alien civilization, they are likely to be hostile towards us. Carl Sagan argued long ago that if we find alien civilizations, then they are likely to be those few who averted self-destruction, and managed to successfully build peaceful and environmentally sustainable societies. This is because such societies will be the only ones to survive for long enough on a cosmic timescale for us to find them.

[@guilliokeaney6487]

Who is this guy Little green men What an attitude

[@GeorgeWolff36]

Diamond is brilliant and learned. Read his "Guns, Germs and Steel."

[@elmarco777]

The other scenario would be the vast distances. We have only been sending out signals for less than 100 years, so to hear us you would have to be with in 100 light years. As of October 2005, astronomers have been able to detect the presence of planets around only 28 G-type stars (including Sol) -- or around 5.5 percent -- of those 511 stars located within 100 light-years of Earth. Take in all the factors needed to have intelligent life you would need billions of stars with planets to have one with intelligent life. Even it there was life that could send out a signal from farther away we would need to be able to detect a very faint signal, I don't think we could. and their signal might not have reached us yet.

[@TehCoza]

Says that intelligent life in the galaxy is close to 0% probability and then say the most damgerous people on the planet are people sending messages into space

[@MultiBikerboy1]

Are we alone in the universe?.....and by alone I mean are we the only inhabitants of a planet that the rulers are covering up the existence of other beings?

[@jeffdunlap2754]

Distances and the laws of Physics, crunch the numbers.

[@joekey8464]

even if life is out there, there will be no interacting with them because of the large distances between us, nearest solar system is 4.5 light years away from earth....might as just as well say, that yes we are alone in the universe

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

Our relationship to time might change. Surely aliens might have different ideas about what takes too long and what's worth the while. And more surely it might be different for intelligent machines.

[@stylesofsaturn]

I'm not sure why we think we are most intelligent right now. We have had more intelligence many thousands of years ago. We are lacking the spiritual side of science which we are finally starting to get back. Getting around the cosmos is not done with material, but rather non material.

[@twirlipofthemists3201]

The most intelligent people around today don't think so.

[@Jay_Hall]

Ariel School, 1994, very close encounter,,,they are here.

[@maxnullifidian]

I think we may well be the very first intelligent species to arise in our observable universe.

[@CommanderZion]

Maybe in the future, another species will come across our planet and study how we went extinct and how much of a negative impact we made on our planet.

[@remedythis-dreamworld]

Just because you can’t sense something, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

[@stinkertoy4310]

Can he prove they aren't here already? We attribute extraordinary abilities to these aliens. What if they ARE communicating and we simply haven't figured out how to turn the phone on? Or worse, we have been communicating all along, and science still rejects that possibility?; by that I mean “psychic abilities".

[@MrJamesLongstreet]

Our universe is very, very - very - young.

[@teeniequeenie8369]

They are our star siblings and we have much to learn from them…