Housing Inventory Surges to a SEVEN YEAR High in Austin TX

[@JasonWalter1]

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[@timeforachange-i3s]

I want to place my townhome for sale in a town in Georgia. Withing three weeks the inventory in a 65 townhome community has now surged to 10%. It was two homes for sale and now my home makes six homes for sale out of 65 total townhomes. Most likely I will not be able to sell the unit and will have to rent again. Oh well I missed the surge but I had a great tenant for five years. Incredible the amount of people listing their townhomes for sale over the last three weeks. Investors are getting out and selling - sign of things to come.

[@renelopez2244]

Everything down except the price. Let's see how long that lasts

[@olin9310]

Not interest rates

[@Brandon-ql3pg]

I love that you do videos on the markets that have interesting activity going on. I will say I am biased in that I live in Austin and it’s awesome to get a vid specific this this market, but again, I think it’s always interesting when you do market specific unique cases, such as some areas in CA, FL and the Northeast too. Keep it up!

[@JBoy340a]

Thanks for the info. We own property in the Austin area and the prices are dropping. With that said, the prices were very inflated during the pandemic and are reducing but still above the old levels. The only good thing is property taxes are falling since the assessment is dropping. And the taxes are really big because of state tax. We saw rises of $7K+ in one year and now drops of $2K in one year. After living with Prop 13, and almost flat taxes year after year, this was a real eye opener. But as you showed there is a lot of competition between existing homes versus new construction. During the 2021-23 timeframe many builders went wild. The downside for these new homes is that some they are in undeveloped areas without a lot of infrastructure such as freeways, stores, etc. A lot of these are on the Eastern side of Austin.

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

Austin itself is not dropping. Just the surrounding areas.

[@samsuner]

Thank you for all the data

[@RP-le1fp]

The cost of building homes is still sky high. The market went up very fast in Austin. Now it will adjust down a few thousand dollars, then it will go right back up again. Most homeowners have fixed rates of 2 to 3%, are going to stay right where they are and hold on to their homes. Austin is still in demand and there is no crash.

[@danielkosciuszko9788]

I’m in NJ and it’s brutal here. Damn New Yorkers flooding in. The problem is the economy here is so resilient and leaving means taking a huge pay cut.

[@maj373]

I noticed San Antonio is following Austin

[@meaganhale5238]

great info. Thanks so much. I'm hoping one rate drop will also drop this inventory level in ATX.

[@kristimh]

I’m in a pricier side of Austin. Prices are dropping but it’s still very overpriced for most still. Happy to see some changes though.

[@karthikkal4599]

There is less than 1/10th move-up buyers compared to 2017, even 60-70% of that level need to give up gains by 10-15%. However, Redbin changed its methodology on price discovery to stop the price declines but was skyrocketing it when the price was increasing.

[@paul2081ok]

I like your abstract color art Jason!

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you! It’s my kid’s finger painting and it turned out great!

[@renelopez2244]

@@JasonWalter1 I'd agree. The kids got talent

[@miller-n2n]

Thanks for info 👏

[@JasonWalter1]

No problem 👍

[@enthused7591]

The entire state of Florida is on the brink of 7 year highs as well, just skyrocketing. Rates have nothing to do with it. People have smartened up to these valuations being the largest bubble in all of world history. Crazy it took so long, the median income would need to shoot up 35% in 6 months to avoid a bubble, but unemployment going up will cause median income to fall 3-4% over the next 2 years as home values crash 50-60%.

[@jonathantaylor6926]

Rates have a lot to do with it. 7% mortgage rates (and 5% yield on the 10 year) made investor demand for RE go way down. Higher rates made prices appreciation slow/flat or even some small RE deflation in some areas.. this is encouraging investor selling, which is causing inventory to go up... which is encouraging even more investor selling.

[@billricheter5678]

@@jonathantaylor6926rates are not high however. They are a bit below historical averages. People have a very distorted view of rates

[@housingnerd]

I like the new set up!

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you! It’s just temporary.

[@mbanderson83]

I think we are finally seeing the housing freeze crack. NAHB numbers being the worst numbers for June since 2012, rising inventory and unemployment steadily going up now...get ready. Its a long slow process.

[@chintanshah1303]

Thanks for info! What’s best expectations for price drop

[@bernieattorney5797]

Where do you find the search tool (inventory chart) that lets you choose different cities?

[@JasonWalter1]

ResiClub Analytics but you can find inventory data for specific cities also on Redfin data center and Altos Research.

[@romangabriel007]

California shocks me a little because their unemployment rate is creeping up and is the highest in the nation, plus the high out migration. Something isn’t adding up there. Good video though.

[@renelopez2244]

Cali has a strong buyers market. That's what people don't say. They say these states are getting Cali expats but don't ever say how they managed to get there People bought there homes for over asking

[@JBoy340a]

Because of the high home costs, the out migration is often people that are not homeowners. A lot of them are moving to somewhere where they can afford to buy.

[@renelopez2244]

@JBoy340a 2nd sold my home in Cali. My third was also sold in Cali. Both were bought by families from India. My inlaws sold their home in Cali. So, maybe these folks are leaving with just a brown paper bag but. I think most are cashing out

[@JBoy340a]

@@renelopez2244 No doubt some people are cashing out. But as you saw other people are moving in. And people from India tend to be professionals and do well financially. This is that standard course for California which has always been a place for immigrants with the means to buy. And are you from California? Never heard any locals refer to it as Cali.

[@renelopez2244]

@JBoy340a Yes sir... Cali Born... From the 818. The 805/661 The one thing that's must be said is, my second house was going to be sold to my neighbors. They're from India. We both bought our homes at the same time. I raised my children there and he brought his extended family to live in his 5 bedroom house. Everyone in hos household worked, brother, cousin spouse as well as his wife and of course my neighbor. Roughly 4 to 5 pay checks to pay off his house in 10 years. When it came to sell, he offered to buy mine cash.. It was a little low and asked why he wanted to buy. He Saod his brother wanted it for his wife and her extended family from India. So, I sold to someone else a week or 2 later. When it came time to pack up we exchanged number and he later bought the house adjacent to him cash, same model and Roughly a little higher then mine. However, his brother moved in that one and his spouse had her family and little brother move to that home on work visas. They plan to pay that hous ouf in 8 years or less all all 8 to 10 members consolidation of income is used to pay off this home... Wish we as american family's can accept thus concept. However, I think greed gets in the way as family members bicker about what's rightfully theirs. Who knew? 😂😂😂

[@gormanthomas8135]

I'm suggesting a government-mandated 500% surcharge for homeowners insurance. The surcharge is waived for primary residences, but individuals and corporations would pay the surcharge on every additionally housing unit. It could be a great way to get some homes on the market ;)

[@joelsnyder8177]

I think Florida is going follow Texas with about 24 other states and a little more then half of the country will see a big price drops over the next 4 to 5 years because of a recession and weak job market

[@jeffpiatt3879]

I honestly thing that Austin is "done." Young people with wealthy parents that bought them condos have realized that the weather sucks and that drinking in bars and eating in restaurants is about the only thing that Austin has to offer. I expect prices to drop, slowly, for several more years.

[@professorprofessorson8795]

Great update, as been predicting the dominoes are starting to fall

[@jaydeeare285]

How much is your rent?

[@stevenevangelist5221]

when or are sellers bringing money to the closing table?

[@AM-hl4tv]

Thanks!

[@divyv20]

Hey Jason , very good video . I can do better editing in your videos which can help you to get more engagement in your videos . Pls lmk what do you think ?

[@gregh7457]

what i find more shocking is that chico is one of 300 "large markets"

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

If anything, it's due investors buying up properties because of the university. But Chico is not like it used to be with homeless everywhere.

[@petetown13]

I appreciate the Austin updates! But how is inventory exploding but listings aren’t?

[@JasonWalter1]

You bet! Slowdown in sales

[@Steverz32]

Let’s get Nerdy! Good morning Jason Walters👍

[@JasonWalter1]

Never been a better time to get nerdy!

[@Steverz32]

@@JasonWalter1 True!😂🤣😂

[@stevenevangelist5221]

did they pay too much for there houses? Were they built incorrectly? That's another scam withing itself. Were they overvalued? What kind of fraud happened? Looks like everything is bombing. People leaving, taxes, insurances, etc.

[@brotherted9212]

Respectfully, presenting raw inventory changes over time without controlling for population shifts is inherently misleading. Inventory over time should be presented as a percentage of population over time. At least halfway through, when you presented pricing data, that was a better metric - especially in the sense of what most viewers truly care about - although even that would be better presented in real terms, i.e. inflation-adjusted dollars.

[@davidallen2682]

And prices will skyrocket lol. I feel like there should be clown music playing as we watch people buy into this market.

[@renelopez2244]

Agreed

[@grlfromtx09]

no one wants to move to Austin during summer 🥵🥵🥵

[@JBoy340a]

Pool water temperature is now 91F.

[@lockup6104]

Mahalo I’m glad I’m not in Texas 😂🤙🏽🌴👍🏽

[@JasonWalter1]

Aloha!

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

A narrow-minded person who don't own RE in TX and don't see the big picture. With millions of illegal immigrants crossing the border, it will cause even more of a housing shortage. Housing doesn't get any cheaper regardless of what these doom and gloom predicts. Even if there's is a market crash, you average people will not be able to buy since investors will buy it up first.

[@Kurplode]

@@lalalalalalalala4264 you might want to think further down the line past “investors buying up the inventory”. Them buying and “never selling” means lower and lower future sales and I think you can guess what happens from there. Also, investors are selling a lot of their inventory so your statement already isn’t true.

[@nitroneonicman]

@@lalalalalalalala4264 you *average people* lol dude cope harder

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

@@nitroneonicman Did I hurt your feelings? Keep wishing for a market crash. I know people like you love doom and gloom videos, it makes you feel better. Again, I purchased in 2019 and 2008 after the crash. Keep hoping there will be another 2008. 3% interest, I'm not selling.

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

Okay, so Round Rock, Georgetown, and Cedar Park were the fastest growing towns surrounding Austin, so that is bound to happen since Austin was the fastest growing city in the US. Of course it makes sense for Austin to be the first to crash (which I don't believe there is a crash). I find it funny all these doom and gloom making videos about how bad the RE market is but they don't live in the area. I live in Austin, Austin itself is not going to crash and it's not getting any cheaper.

[@nitroneonicman]

Sorry you bought at the peak. I bet it feels bad.

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

@@nitroneonicman LOL. My husband and I purchased our Austin home back in 2019. CA home back in 2008, after the crash. we also have a home that is paid off in Austin, and 1 mortgage at 3%. No need to feel sorry for me. I'm doing just fine. It's the doom and gloom like you that I feel sorry for. Hoping for a market crash and can't afford to buy.

[@nitroneonicman]

@@lalalalalalalala4264 I already own so no need to worry about me. I hope you didn't refinance properties in 2022. That would probably feel pretty bad too.

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

@@nitroneonicman I guess you can't read. My interest rate is 3%, so why would I refi in 2022? I strongly doubt you own a home, otherwise you wouldn't be that bitter about the RE market. Nice try though, good luck trying to buy a home though.

[@nitroneonicman]

@@lalalalalalalala4264 Keep telling yourself that, there's definitely a reason you're so salty about the idea of home prices crashing in Texas. Just keep paying your high property taxes while you're underwater on your mortgage. Good luck not foreclosing! :) Also, average 30 year fixed rate in 2019 was 4%, so there goes your credibility.

[@omargarcia517]

I thought the market was going down in Austin ?? 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️ 😅 guess them big companies don’t know nothing about supply and demand right? I guess us the average Joe understand that concept better than them right? 🤭🤭🤭🤭

[@JBoy340a]

A lot of the builders started building these homes 2 or more years ago when everyone was moving to Austin, and you could not get laborers. They own the land and need to complete and sell as fast as to recover some of their investment and avoid making those big monthly payments on their loans.

[@johnnifly]

Now is the time to buy a new home. There has never been a better time to buy a home in history! This is a factually true statement.

[@robertjones2282]

Gaslight Johnny !! Have a great day in the spin cycle !! 😃

[@JasonWalter1]

Johnnnnnnifly! He’s back 🏡🎉

[@primecash144]

😅😅😅

[@G-Anon-oz2lb]

I am a realtor waiting and I have a buddy who says the same thing. All I will say is that it’s a sellers market. So it can’t be the perfect time to sell and the perfect time to buy. It’s fucking stupid

[@House_hacker_619]

@johni Everybody is listening to you😂. Every time you say it prices go up.

[@Steverz32]

1😊

[@JasonWalter1]

Good morning!

[@billricheter5678]

Texas is not a nice place to live. Weather is horrible and people are rude.

[@lalalalalalalala4264]

A narrow-minded person who don't own RE in TX and don't see the big picture. With millions of illegal immigrants crossing the border, it will cause even more of a housing shortage. Housing doesn't get any cheaper regardless of what these doom and gloom predicts. Even if there's is a market crash, you average people will not be able to buy since investors will buy it up first. 10 years from now, you people will be complaining about how there's a housing shortage and can't afford rent. Although these doom and gloom claim rent is going down. It's still around $1600- $3000 for a 1 bedroom (around 700 sq ft) at the Domain in Austin.