THIS will Happen to the US Housing Market in 2025

Given the rise in the number of homes for sale (i.e. housing inventory) and the increase in mortgage interest rates, Fannie may revised DOWNWARD their previous housing market forecast.
In today’s video, I share all the details of their real estate market forecast for housing starts, home sales, home prices and average mortgage rates in 2024 and 2025 (link below for the reports).
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Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos:
• Housing Market Predict...
Source of the reports I shared in today’s video:
www.fanniemae....
www.fanniemae....
www.fanniemae....
fred.stlouisfe...
fred.stlouisfe...
www.census.gov...
To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30 yr fixed rate mortgage is around 7% for the current mortgage rates for people with exceptional credit (at the time of filming this video).
➜➜➜ Email me if you’re looking to buy or sell a home in the greater Sacramento area (w/n ~30mn drive from Sacramento): [e-mail]
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter, CPA (inactive CPA lic 103885)
Sacramento real estate agent and native (DRE 01923240)
Mortgage Loan Officer, NMLS 2566691
Revest Homes (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319)
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Disclaimer:
Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
This video description may contain affiliate links that allow you to easily find the items mentioned in my videos as well as support the channel at no cost to you. Thank you for your support! Jason Walter is a licensed real estate agent and mortgage loan originator with Revest Homes in California (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319).
#housingforecast #FannieMae #housingmarket

[@JasonWalter1]

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[@MarioLuigi-vb3rp]

These numbers don’t factor in a very unstable world at the moment. Problems with financial institutes all over the world and the list goes on. Anything can happen

[@araparts]

Fellow Sacramento area resident here....Been watching you since you started this channel. It's awesome to see that you're almost at 100k subscribers and wish you much more success in the future. Cheers from Elk Grove! PS, I watch all the ads 😁

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you for all your support neighbor! Have an awesome day.

[@pickyourswitchoriginal]

Love this. Thank you for digging. I am a senior close to retirement without ever having owned a home, but have had a career and making ok money. I recently purchased a small SUV in anticipation of it becoming my home when I retire...I have no hope of having secure housing.

[@winniethepoohandeeyore2]

Stop looking in the cities. We bought using a USDA loan using a 1227 a month SSDI income.

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

⁠@@winniethepoohandeeyore2I know someone who just did the same thing. USDA Direct loan. 4.625% and they subsidized $600 a month of the payment. There are affordable ways to buy a house for most people, but you have to go where the affordable houses are.

[@winniethepoohandeeyore2]

@@AJourneyOfYourSoul There a an over 2000 sq ft 4 bed room 3 bath home for not even 200k for sale here, a very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath for 60k. Deals are out there, gotta have the patience to look.

[@winniethepoohandeeyore2]

@@AJourneyOfYourSoul My principal is $125 and interest is less than $150. The rest is property tax which isn't much claiming the double homestead exemption, home owners is 1100 for the year after I raised the deductibles.

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

@@winniethepoohandeeyore2 that’s great. Sounds like you have really set yourself up.

[@stevenap4594]

I think realtors are starting to realize they aren’t economists, analysts or financial advisors. Good for them. If sales do increase it’ll more than likely translate to lower prices. Until then, they’ll be stuck eating Ramen noodles for dinner.

[@user-wg3rf6yg1l]

What "realtor" has claimed to be any of those things?

[@joesmith3590]

Realtors were right and prices only went up. Only crash bros have been wrong not realtor.

[@Sonofawildanimal4241]

@@joesmith3590 AGREED, real estate prices go up, not down!

[@nitroneonicman]

Lots of triggered real estate agents in the comments

[@joesmith3590]

@@nitroneonicman you mean crash bros making things up?

[@Steverz32]

Happy Saturday Jason!🎉 Get out and enjoy this 3day weekend 👍

[@JasonWalter1]

Thanks! You too!

[@dustinhartlyn]

It would be interesting to know what their prediction was for 2006 & 2007.

[@jomomma1072]

I like your spreadsheet. Fannie is not even using math anymore, they are using a hope and a prayer. Look at the trend. Rates higher for longer, home sales continuing to go down yoy, and magically it’ll just be all better next month, next year. Same story they been spinning for the last few years. “It’s a great time to buy”.

[@dianaricciardelli1961]

In October 1981, interest rates reached their highest point in modern history at 18.63% for a 30-year mortgage, according to Freddie Mac data. This was nearly three times the current rate. However, home prices were a fraction of what they're today. Interest rates are NOT the problem. Outrageous homes prices are the PROBLEM. The Fed lowered the interest rates to a historic low of 2-3% in response to the pandemic. Low interest rates caused Corporate America to buy thousands of homes across the country and increased buyer demand, which led to higher prices in homes and rents and low inventory. People can't afford to buy a home because prices have doubled or tripled in the last three years. It has nothing to do with interest rates!

[@justinlittke5791]

If they lowered rates there would be more buyers

[@dianaricciardelli1961]

@@justinlittke5791 If they lowered home prices there would be more buyers who could afford to buy them. Interest rates mean nothing. It's the home prices that matter.

[@justinlittke5791]

@@dianaricciardelli1961 the interest rates matter. Would be buyers are not there because they don't want to sell their home and buy a new one when they have an existing mortgage with low interest rates. I know several people in this situation. They are waiting on interest rates to come down before they buy a new home

[@LikeWatchingPaintDry]

"Highly unlikely to see a sizable decrease in sales" that's what China said. lol

[@user-wg3rf6yg1l]

When and where did "China" say that?

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

China is a completely different situation. Homes are much more unaffordable in China.

[@matthewmartineau9190]

Great content,i think that regarding to sales and home prices it's impossible to forecast the whole country,some city and state price will continue to rise,some will flat out or decline

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you Jason! You always provide the best analysis and we appreciate it! Thank you

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you for your support, Matt!!

[@eddiedelrosario9946]

Good morning, Jason!

[@williamjohnson9815]

Home sales are just half of the supply/demand equation. For the last ten years there have just not been enough homes built, especially single family detached on a quarter acre lot (the American dream)

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you. People don't realize that today's new houses are tomorrow's existing home sales. Like you mention, we had underbuilding for about a decade which is impacting the market. Now we have a high amount of supply of new home construction for sale but many years of underbuilding leading up to COVID.

[@hornz5]

Best unbiased analysis I have found!

[@user-xn3cb4wb8z]

What I'm seeing in my local area (upstate SC) is a bifurcation between the bottom end of the market SFHs/rental units with a lot of deferred maintenance gradually stacking up inventory and ask prices drifting down, while the mid-range, move-in ready SFHs in decent locations clear easily with prices trending modestly up. The sense I get is that lack of affordability drove a lot of speculation into the lower end of the market, it overshot to the upside and is starting to normalize.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Thank you, speculation and Covid market distortions have ruled supreme for years now, but that peaked around mid 2022. A never before witnessed eruption of (normally dormant) coastal equity spread across the US like butter on toast. It's still sloshing around the system, but when all that equity settles back into those coastal stud walls again, there should be a gradual reversion back to sane markets. I'm already seeing a fair bit of it, but only where the builders have been going crazy.

[@christopherzerbe]

Sales are down b/c owners are on mortgages with lower rates. Why would anyone sell to get a higher rate? Let's keep it real here.

[@robertratz5305]

Thanks! Your show is the best.

[@JasonWalter1]

Wow, thanks!

[@Courtney-Alice-Gargani]

Good Morning, Jason. Happy Weekend.

[@JasonWalter1]

You too!

[@Jose-sy1je]

I don't see anything on sale in L.A. Homeowners are locked in with proposition 13 and pay 2-3k in property tax for a 1 million plus home. If they moved anywhere else they would pay many times that. California's proposition 13 is a major reason why prices are so high.

[@Courtney-Alice-Gargani]

I love the sign $5 for Whining. Where did you buy it?

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you! It was a gift 😀

[@videogarage9221]

Cause for current astronomical home prices & (over all inflation) can be summarized in one word = GREED There is no other rhyme or reason folks.

[@hokeywolf3416]

Everyone is greedy about their own possessions, including you.

[@spalahang]

Instead of creating modifications loans, government needs to come up with better mortgage programs for fthb or primary residence who own no more than one home and with restrictions to no investors.

[@provishky]

All these analysis and predictions are ALWAYS optimistic and suggesting to buy NOW. Based on pure greed.

[@Csharpflat5]

True yes I agree

[@Ace-ht1is]

I audit banks. Mortgage loans are low risk at the moment. It's those commercial building loans that are at high risk due to lots of vacancies resulting in low cash flow and DSCR. Home prices will not go down.

[@ademkonjevic5050]

Does it matter that we are at the lowest amount of applications for mortgage rates in 30 years?

[@jamesyoo2951]

Appreciate the update! Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

[@Twisted86]

I don't see how anyone can afford a home anymore, I can only imagine the US government and private firms are keeping these insane prices going.

[@Needglory23]

“Do you know how many millionaires there are across the country? According to a recent study, almost 24.5 million millionaires live in the U.S. today. To put that into perspective, that’s more people than the entire population of Florida! And that number is growing.”

[@TheDuke792]

I miss the post Pandemic Mortgage rates, those were good times ! The market correction has been massive and with the impending recession it seems like things are only going to get worse.

[@rnp1785]

Less and less people are able to afford to buy a house and people that bought homes when interest rates were 3.5% aren’t going to Cell to buy a home at 7.5% interest rates so less homes will be sold plus mass layoffs are coming so they’ll be even less people with money to purchase homes so wait to buy a home if you can cause the prices will come down just like everything else except taxes

[@gringosays3895]

Why is there very little interest in purchasing a home by assuming the existing FHA low interest rate loan?

[@JasonWalter1]

Hard to find and for the most part it's not financially feasible unless the homeowner purchased the home within the last couple of years. I made a whole video about how to find one and how to do it here kzbin.info/www/bejne/iXqsmp6pnKiIidE

[@bobg8015]

Hey bud I'm trying to get a home equity line of credit on my paid off property in los Angeles to build a new construction starting in 6-9 months with 5% interest from 80% of the value only for one year and of course it will fluctuate after one year it will cost me $250-$280 per square feet, right now I'm a renter living not far from that location.I'm a little bit worried about the recession which I sense from far away regarding significant decline in home values could cause lenders to reduce your line or freeze it - as I learned during the last Recession. I just would like to know if this is a solid deal,thanks.

[@MrTL3wis]

Since the moment interest rates have started to rise, there have been sellers who decided to delay selling. They know when interest rates drop that the prices will again go up. The low number of homes for sale suggests a supply of deferred sellers. The longer rates stay high, the more deferred sellers will exist and the more pressure will be on them to sell. The only question is whether or not the interest rates will drop before the deferred sellers buckle. If I'm correct and *these* people decide to start listing homes, there will be a lot of pressure on pricing. I do not believe interest rates are going to drop for any meaningful period of time in the next 5 years. Even the inflation they admit to is higher than the Fed target. If measured as we did in 1980, our present inflation rate would be in the 8's. Inflation is still very high and we all know it. Wages have not kept pace. We also all know this. We're starting to see large corporations with significant layoffs. Those people will have 3 months severance, but they won't have money forever. What happens in about September when that starts to take effect?

[@me-ut3ud]

If unemployment spikes, fed will be forced to cut rates... And for your theory regarding upward pricing pressure, not only is there more inventory now than before, builders are about to unleash millions of units/ single family homes. Not the same environment as before

[@House_hacker_619]

@@me-ut3udresearch the 80’s market. You complain about 3% inflation rate, 7% interest rate and 4% unemployment😂. The 80’s market had it worst they had 10% unemployment rate, 8.5 inflation rate and 18-21% interest rate. It didn’t crash the market. Housing had gone up and Some areas had double the prices. Housing maybe a little bit cheaper but they doubled unemployment and inflation and triple the rates. Quit complaining 😂

[@MrTL3wis]

@@me-ut3ud They've painted themselves into a corner. They *can't* drop rates because they've stuck too much currency into circulation and inflation is still too high, even now. They *have* to let unemployment climb without dropping rates because they *have* to get this money out of circulation. Jobs will be collateral damage. We've had artificially low interest rates since Greenspan. That is what has put so much money into ALL asset prices (not just real estate.) We are not going to fix this problem with the same tool that caused it. We're in trouble. That's just reality.

[@Kurplode]

House hacker We have already gone over this. The affordability index shows the amount of income it takes to buy a house to be more affordable in the 80s than today’s situation even when rates were 18%. The average down payment in the 80s was 28% where it’s 6-10% today. The median house price in 1985 was $84,300. Go do the calculations on borrowing 72% of 84,300 at 18% vs 72% of 300,000+ at 7% and tell me which situation you would rather have. Stop lying to people.

[@House_hacker_619]

@@Kurplode if if you’re right why housing is up 6% yoy? FYI my second house I bought in San Diego on August 2022 for 685k is already up over 30% in equity. Its current value is 895k 😂. You need to stop listening cashbros.

[@fleetcenturion]

An asset cannot be affordable, and at the same time, be constantly increasing in value. Something has to give, and a BIG correction is coming.

[@bi0lizard1]

Definitely looking a little gaunt. Hope you get well soon.

[@cowpunkability]

Sometimes I’m a little slow, so let me ask this question is he basically talking about supply and demand so other words there will be less houses of one type, higher interest rate or remaining the same, and so….. gosh I lost the point is it that it’s a good time to buy sell or what I can’t remember lol I just got lost. Someone help me with the main point?

[@cowpunkability]

Rfk is proposing govt issued 3% mortgage for new homeowners who will stay in their homes for X amount of years and I think it’s a great idea because you build up the middle class you create neighborhoods and he also spoke about how we think that homeless is all addiction and certainly it’s a huge part of it, but there are parts of the state where addiction is profound and devastating yet there aren’t a lot of homeless, and this is because there are still housing. Even if he is not elected if he’s allowed to debate, this will probably be an idea the other candidates have to copy. It’s just so important I mean, if anything, having a middle-class protects the rich from Civil War right so I mean it’s good lol.. but it’s good for the country. If you take away the last shiny glittering thing of homeownership, what are we doing?

[@Needglory23]

“Data from the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report shows that in 2023 there were just under 30 million millionaires in the US.”

[@joelsnyder8177]

If rates dont degrees then prices will definitely go down because we have to many desperate sellers in Florida

[@stevenap4594]

People really need to stop thinking they’re going to be millionaires from buying a house and taking a shit in it for 5 years. I think they’re starting to realize that now.

[@user-wg3rf6yg1l]

​@@stevenap4594Bazes on what ? Prices are still rising nationally.

[@joelsnyder8177]

@freedomoffgrid sorry i was using voice assistant text

[@mikel2887]

i do not believe their forecast. something has to give. rates down or prices stable to down. Houses becoming unaffordable except for the weathy.

[@boondockpaint]

If home prices dropping 15%, they will still be unaffordable for a lot of people!

[@ytv2024]

You guys said 2024…now it’s 2025? Which one is it?

[@JasonWalter1]

Fannie Mae?

[@metonicycle6294]

@@JasonWalter1 2024

[@straightdrive6192]

They meant 2125

[@Truebaconluver]

It's always next year😂

[@me-ut3ud]

They're basing forecasts on each economic report so it changes by the month. Same as how the fed works

[@andyhughes1776]

What the government needs to do is release Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac from Conservatorship so that it will stimulate lending while shifting risks to investors. They need to do this as soon as China invades Taiwan. Why? Because that will cause Chinese investors to dump properties they own in the U.S. into the market for local Americans to buy!

[@robertjones2282]

Do the homework and never allow Yourself too be a blind obedient.

[@Courtney-Alice-Gargani]

I don't see home prices going back to Pre-Covid.

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

Not unless we have massive amounts of layoffs and even then, I believe the federal government will step in and have another mortgage moratorium.

[@JasonWalter1]

Same for the nation as a whole. Some markets it’s possible but we have a long ways to go.

[@elizabethparsons1990]

@@AJourneyOfYourSoul gosh I hope not! We must stop giving away money. I lost everything during Covid and got NOTHING. Stop bailing people out on the backs of hard working Americans!

[@MelStar31]

⁠@@AJourneyOfYourSoulI don’t see another moratorium the Govt is playing for keeps this time!

[@primecash144]

Yeah, well don't look at Phoenix, Denver or Las Vegas. 2018 prices are loading.

[@Koushi82]

let them have it not worth paying so much in taxes insurance and mortage all combined 90% of income. worthless.

[@agentcrypto7741]

So they think home prices will increase higher with these higher interest rates. Lol

[@House_hacker_619]

Yes😂 eco 101 supply and demand

[@DG-fs1pq]

Hmmm....what could possibly be the solution in a market where houses are overpriced and STILL historically low rates? Could it be a snap back to reality? That house worth $300k in 2018 IS NOT worth $600k today. It is time to get your heads out of the clouds and list homes at prices that reflect reality. Realtors and Sellers had their fantasy for a while. Now, it is over. There will be losses. That is the consequence of greed. Sell at the right price on your own accord, or be forced to sell. Regardless, it will happen. Why? Blind greed. They bought these houses driving up prices, BUT they did not account for rising insurance costs and rising taxes. Blind greed.

[@Needglory23]

😂😂

[@JAYY_JAYY]

Location,Location,Location I do not foresee homes prices coming down in California anytime soon . There is a lack of supply and most are locked in under 3% . That contributes to not enough supply . Therefore those properties that do become available go quick and asking price .

[@DG-fs1pq]

@@Needglory23 That is not a comment. What are you saying?

[@aviationnerd7806]

​@@DG-fs1pqYou are confusing greed with simply wanting fair market value. The market is the market.

[@DG-fs1pq]

​@aviationnerd7806 The market is the market, correct. However, you cannot argue for fair market prices after first assigning a nonsensical value. Again, everyone knows houses are overpriced. How do you determine fair market? I would say it is broken, but the prices out there are nowhere near fair market. That is just common sense based on how a normal housing market operates. You do not wake up to $100k+ appreciation. That should take years. Anybody who believes otherwise is ripe for a good pyramid scheme. There is no get rich quick scheme that is without losers. Those who purchased high thinking they could sell higher are going to lose.

[@Steverz32]

1😊

[@JasonWalter1]

👍🏡

[@lockup6104]

🤙🏽👍🏽✌🏽🇺🇸

[@user-fn3ms1ch6s]

She lies to try to help keep houses prices up they are full of shit

[@cowpunkability]

Rfk is proposing govt issued 3% mortgage for new homeowners who will stay in their homes for X amount of years and I think it’s a great idea because you build up the middle class you create neighborhoods and he also spoke about how we think that homeless is all addiction and certainly it’s a huge part of it, but there are parts of the state where addiction is profound and devastating yet there aren’t a lot of homeless, and this is because there are still housing. Even if he is not elected if he’s allowed to debate, this will probably be an idea the other candidates have to copy. It’s just so important I mean, if anything, having a middle-class protects the rich from Civil War right so I mean it’s good lol.. but it’s good for the country. If you take away the last shiny glittering thing of homeownership, what are we doing?