Jim Grant: There's as much a chance of a rate hike as there is of two rate cuts

Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley chief economist, and Jim Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer founder and editor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, what to expect from the Fed's policy meeting, interest rate outlook, and more.

[@mirandamillsivy]

They raise interest rates, but then continue their obscene overspending and money printing. Such a mess

[@stevenorris1]

They stopped printing money when they started hiking interest rates. That's the literal meaning of quantitative tightening.

[@eabhaconnor2]

yes, my point being why go through this process if you will continue overspending and devaluing the dollar either way. It’s a mess, we wouldn’t be in this spot if our government could run a budget. On a personal note I've worked closely with my advisor to grow my portfolio from $200k to $4.8 million through stock trading because as a businessman, I prefer to invest my money rather than let it sit idle and lose value over time due to inflation.

[@borisVladimir2]

Despite the ups and downs in the stock market, you've managed to turn your investments into good profits. Could you share the name of your advisor? I have $300k saved up and ready to invest. Letting money sit idle isn’t my style as well, I’d rather put it to work and keep it growing.

[@eabhaconnor2]

She is well known as - Chasity George Charles. please do your own research.

[@borisVladimir2]

I am on the look out for experts and after doing my research online will say she meets my requirements, Thank you for sharing with us. I already sent her a mail hoping she can make out time in her busy schedule to assist me.

[@roddywoods8130]

Opinions on the market diverge; some claim overvaluation due to rapid gains, while others cite strong economic fundamentals justifying high valuations. Raises concern for my $600K equities going 8% up and 20% down. Should i hold on or sell off my positions and hold cash?.

[@kaylawood9053]

In fact, markets have incorrectly priced in such a pivot six times over the last two years, according to Deutsche Bank, which sounded cautious about this seventh time. Still showing us why pointers from market experts are essential.

[@hushbash2989]

No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024

[@bsetdays6784]

I highly suspect i'm much too small game to handle investing myself recently, figured out it will be good to consult a professional this new year, could you be kind enough with details of your advisor please?

[@hushbash2989]

Marisol Cordova’ is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@JulianBarnes-dd2iq]

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

[@marcuscook5145]

Rates need to go higher and spending needs to be cut.

[@MadhavSharma-xj5hi]

So we have more layoffs and people lose their jobs

[@wa210]

​@@MadhavSharma-xj5hiThere will be some pain, but no pain, no gain. Rates aren't high enough to stomp down inflation.

[@MadhavSharma-xj5hi]

@wa210 wow, clearly you are rich and have secure employment. I was already laid off during the peak of the rate hikes. I've had to accept work for 20% less salary. Luckily, I have been saving a lot in the markets since 2009 so I am fine but many are not.

[@bbilub3092]

Things cost WAY more than they used to. We are spending WAY more on necessities than we used to under Trump. I don't know anyone who can afford a dam thing under this administration.

[@wa210]

@@bbilub3092 Under tRump you can inject disinfectant or gamble for your life. The unemployed backwoods bubbas in conalds cult may find out time to walk away from those $1,500 a month truck payments, and opt for taking the bus.

[@codeblue11]

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.

[@ChaeleisaMankinn]

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

[@yeslahykcim]

Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.

[@brianwhitehawker1756]

impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now

[@yeslahykcim]

Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment

[@BrettaANordsiek]

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

[@headspaceandtiming2114]

Jim Grant has been on CNBC and FoxBusiness. He has a valued opinion by all. He constantly speaks with calm reality of our situation. And his opinion is sobering. The road back to stability is not easy and I don’t know if we have the will to take it.

[@andrewjones3251]

We should have Jim Grant on more often and for more time! Forget about the Morgan Stanley guys praying for rate cuts. We are not at high interest rates. We are massively overleveraged and this needs to change.

[@mattmccracken1768]

The "Age of Deleveraging" should have occurred a decade ago, and now the problem is much worse. This will be painful, no longer how the Fed plays this. My guess is we will have stagflation for possibly as much as a decade to wear away this leverage, but it will be painful for equities.

[@harambenolevest69]

I am learning a lot of these guys from investment wire houses are just biased toward bullishness. It's like they've been corrupted

[@bkfabs]

Jim Grant keeping it 💯

[@dreamweaver80]

STAGFLATION IS HERE!

[@miken7629]

No rate cuts, US can handle higher rates, raise rates, 10yr need to go much higher.

[@MadhavSharma-xj5hi]

So we have more layoffs

[@karmasutra4774]

This generation can't handle it like we did

[@MadhavSharma-xj5hi]

@karmasutra4774 eventually everyone handles it. I just don't if that's the best thing for society

[@dons3073]

Rates need to go higher that’s ovious

[@w3s77]

Inflation = CPI^2. Inflation is ripping, Fed is just pumping the market. Not going to end well.

[@kvnsns82]

Jim Grant for Fed chairman!

[@rosemarysunshine1744]

Who came first: Jim Grant or Bill Nye?

[@illegalsmirf]

Jesus came first.

[@ichoudhury007]

4:05 "Hear him, hear him well! He speaks the truth, and we all say, thankya!" - Inflation has become ingrained in our economic system. Nowadays, young people are growing up accustomed to escalating prices, considering it as the norm. If you glance at job postings, you'll notice that salaries have more than doubled or even tripled compared to just a decade or two ago. Although minimum wages are rising, the cost of goods and services keeps ascending (nothing has fundamentally changed, just the ratios). The bottom line is, inflation seems to be a permanent fixture and will likely continue its upward trajectory. It's not going to crush our spirits as it hasn't for those of us who remember more affordable times, even though we had lower salaries back then. So, don't stress too much about it, as Great Dory has said "Just keep swimming" :)

[@knt3219]

No Cut Or One Cut After November 15 , 2024 . And That Is My Prediction. Sincerely❤️❤️❤️, KNT

[@jaym9846]

FED to drop rates to 0% (to allow Mag 7 to make buy back bigger).

[@bratwurstbratbeauftragterb220]

Mag 7 will do best at a rate hike bc they are the only one who can afford it.

[@jovanirodriguez5515]

rates definitely needs to be hiked... we are not able to bring inflation down at a steady pace

[@SantiagoGonzalezHernande-sp6vz]

Jim Grant actually speaking truth. Other guy clearly represents the wealthiest lmao

[@AmeriGlobal]

Most conservatives ignore real estate and healthcare inflation. Did we think workers would just keep absorbing higher rent costs and healthcare costs without demanding higher wages?

[@Seanpfree]

ZERO CUTS coming. We are at the very start of a decades long uptrend. First time home ownership is over with in the US.

[@gregweiss9359]

Love Jim Grant!

[@RichardKing-sx6xc]

Legend 😎👍

[@karmasutra4774]

I think 1 or no cuts this year and if it's a hike it will be small

[@theguildedcage]

3 cuts this year. So they either are a company full of idiots or they are trying to rip people off. Or both.

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

Is that Bill Nye the science guy

[@Seanpfree]

These people have zero clue how the economy has completely left behind 25-35 yr old. An entire generation priced out of the middle class.

[@Jesse-qc3hg]

When will the Fed lower rates

[@michaelswami]

I phrase it “Often wrong, but never in doubt”.

[@healuv]

3 body problem. Too many moving parts that nobody can predict what will happen

[@samwalton4598]

More proof the last place you go for advice is WallStreet. What’s the bond market doing? Morgan Stanley’s position is always be blind bullishness. Buy buy buy!!!

[@howdydo64]

"We've added hundreds of thousands of jobs"! cough cough part time 🙄

[@AmeriGlobal]

Private sector is pathetic even with Trump tax cuts that are still in place.

[@edmundlively8137]

They won't need to hike if they will just sell off the balance sheet faster.

[@arbitrader893]

The Fed and government is out of control.

[@PapaDeNico82]

He looks like Bill Nye!

[@rickhayes-oh2zm]

They got their hawkish cut today.

[@MrFrancishidalgo]

Nope!

[@pjeverly]

Inflation will continue to come down. In a way the system is self correcting. Most businesses that mapped out their product prices 2 years ago, got caught flat footed as their borrowing cost suddenly went way up. Pass it on to the consumer? Take the loss? If people can't afford it, they can't afford it. Inflation comes down. Conversely, no matter how low borrowing costs get there is always a point where products also become unaffordable. Inflation will come down at that point. The Fed like Generals are busy fighting the last war Right now the lower income levels are taking all of this on the chin. Credit Cards, car payments etc are all much higher and it happed very unexpectedly. They are not a happy political group.

[@authoredens581]

Jim Grant is probably a WSB mod

[@geraldbrowne]

The quality of the jobs Goldman eco talks about are what ?

[@yangbomb2]

Go for it. Let those professional gamblers, ie the street pay for their greedy bets on commercial real estate, complacency on "FED is going to save us".

[@harambenolevest69]

The Fed screwed the pooch in October/November. Everyday it is looking worse and worse.

[@RB-eo4eq]

Nice bow tie … doesn’t make the comments make any sense but good coffee shop discussion. In Determination of the inflation resulting in possible Stagflation is blah blah blah ..

[@samuelromo7839]

No hike

[@Mako2401]

Cutting rates now is like being overweight, losing weight and going back to cake.

[@ibrahimdonmez1983]

Morgan Stanley chief economist. What a title. He has the title but he speaks nonsense. I don't know where they find these people disconnected from the reality on the ground. Cut the spending. Raise the rates. That is what is needed. These big money brokers don't give a damn about the 99% of the people in this country. They just talk this nonsense to serve the uber rich 1%. Gosh.

[@rickhayes-oh2zm]

Wasn't a bank just bailed out. They are going to be hawkish. This inflation is going to take off.

[@wa210]

First Republic Bank failed, and JPMorgan swooped it up. No doubt Jamie Dimon has his hands in the cookie jar to scoop up assets. The Wal mart of banking.

[@Chryeon]

Cut cut hike hike 😂 why the fuss just wait and see rather than speculating it 😏😏

[@grc7231]

I love Joe!

[@AH-fm7rj]

Their metrics are wrong: If deficit is 6% of GDP and GDP growth is 2.5% (2023 data) so real GDP declined by 3.4% (1.02/1.06).

[@andresmarchena6362]

Where was the desperation to race rates when inflation was hitting 58% in 2022 so why is there a desperation without signs of disinflation to cut rates?

[@Alpharizzchad]

Because the Insurance company and Banks won't there money. Welcome to the 1980s even the 1990s 7% was the normal. This is the new normal. Maybe down 1-2 percent.

[@j3rkch1ck3n]

Where did you come up with 58% for 2022? I’d like to see that data point.

[@nickvin7447]

I Told You So

[@luckyskivvy6077]

🥩 Y'all have picked the meat off the bones. The proposed rate cuts are measured in basis points. 😂 1bp = 0.01%. WTF is lowering a few basis points going to do when interests are at 6-7%??? Its still sky high.

[@neuropuritan_zealot8455]

The minimum unit of change is usually 25bps

[@wa210]

Rates are not high enough. Problem with too many perps, is trying to keep up with the Jones's and living beyond their means. Sounds like the government, right?

[@geraldbrowne]

Jim grant schooling an obvious light weight .

[@bubpori5105]

Key Services Tied to Wage Inflation is the Additive Making for Little Relief in top line Core ,C.P.I. Stacking Rates is a Catch up Call to Mounting Pressure from many Sides Perplexing the Check List for Relief in Tandem ! Expect Volatility Follow the Curve !.

[@RameshKumar88570]

!!my outlook on money changed when I realized someone making $300,000 can retire broke & someone making $80,000 can retire a multi-millionaire. With the current market movement, you have $100,000 to invest. Where are you investing it?

[@GabrielleSimonelio]

I'm favoured financially, Thank you Jesus $32,000 weekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy.

[@MariaRiver2]

Please how do I go about it, am still a newbie on investment trading and how can I make profit?

[@RameshKumar88570]

Thanks to Mrs Elizabeth Michael

[@RameshKumar88570]

She's a licensed broker here in the states

[@americanexile2]

YES!!! That's exactly her name (Elizabeth Michael ) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her 😊 from Brisbane Australia🇦🇺

[@EricfromMO]

These clowns trying to justify everything is fine.

[@eddylauterback1312]

Just shut up Joe