Futurist Ray Kurzweil Says AI Will Achieve Human-level Intelligence by 2029

JRE #2117 w/Ray Kurzweil
KZbin: • Joe Rogan Experience #...
JRE on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4rOoJ6E...

[@Prometeu-]

Jamie pulls that up faster than he hands over a piece of paper...

[@xaviergough9359]

Oh he Googles real good, guys. Pathetic. Kurzweil is a polymath.

[@marcusash7]

@@xaviergough9359It’s always an Xavier lmao. Jamie does his job well, allow him.

[@dominiquedorsey4197]

hes trained well

[@akhilsharma83]

Jamie is an AGI all this time we didn’t know.

[@andrewferguson8032]

Someone please tell him about the Interweb

[@scottwitham4255]

Joe: Asks a question This guy: "Exponential growth"

[@UnknownUser-fe5zu]

😂

[@mas-udal-hassan9277]

[The secular West’s double standards are glaringly evident from how they deal with “irrationality”. When this so-called irrationality is linked with religion it’s a problem. However, when it comes to things like “gender fluidity” it’s completely fine. Another example that can be mentioned is how the “clairvoyant” Edgar Cayce was extremely popular during the early 20th century. And it’s the same story when it comes to aliens. The secular West, unable to fight its innate tendency to believe in the ghayb, proposes the likely existence of a non-human species that could communicate with our world - the same way Muslims believe in the jinn Of course, all of this is done in the name of their own religion: science. They even have their own priests in the form of astrobiologists, etc. This belief of theirs is of the same nature as ours. Even if they try and add some pseudo-empiricist spice: there may be tangible elements pointing towards the existence of aliens. They fail to grasp how we, too, say there are “tangible elements” regarding the influences of the jinn within our world.]​@@UnknownUser-fe5zu

[@chriscollins4539]

I was thinking this through the entire clip lol

[@caleb7475]

J:So Elon said you can't do that Guest: Well he's not taking into account exponential growth

[@phoenixmodellingphotography]

"Oh my! You're sooooo big for me Mr Kurzweil teehee!" Ray Kurzweil: *"Exponential growth"*

[@richardbroadway7190]

My skepticism is rising exponentially

[@benbochenek4955]

Hell yeah. This was painful but I didn’t want to miss it.

[@GrumpDog]

So you didn't understand the seriousness of the implications? And the proof that it's happening with AI right now?

[@keithsadler8638]

hahahahah 10000000%

[@DSpartantv]

Lmao...mine too

[@GeoffBournes]

Along with your fear.

[@Redbird1504]

"I wasn't aware" - Joe Rogan calling bullshit

[@ollybreh95]

You think Rogan has the ability to call bullshit on Ray Kurzweil? You obviously don’t know who Ray is…

[@4thorder]

@@ollybreh95 Agreed. I watched the whole interview and half the interview was useless. Don't get me wrong, I like Joe, but he didn't interview him, he spoke at him. Ray has a high level of accuracy in his predictions and is very intelligent person.

[@RichOffKs]

“All renewable in 10 years? 🤔🤔🤔”

[@aztekwarrior23]

You have more faith In a comedian?! 😂.. As Joe says to all his followers

[@benkrauz725]

​@@ollybreh95yeah he's the dumbest genius I've ever seen

[@Imdirtyydan]

What I gathered … It’s growing exponentially, it’s all growing exponentially, exponentially.

[@phnix6242]

Until its not anymore……. We had people on who explained transistors cant fet much smaller becsuse we are in sub-cellular scale Some stuff is just a few atoms wide on COUs Theres a limit And we being totally solar powered in 10 years is total bullshit……

[@CantTellYou]

lol what I gathered: everything ever will happen within the next decade because Kurzweil needs to be here to say “told ya so”

[@DantesHQ]

I don't get why everyone is giving this guy a hard time. He is trying to drill expontentials into your head so you can start thinking in those terms, especially since everyone thinks AI is moving linearly. 5 years ago we had bare bones systems, but now we have models that exceed human performance in a lot of areas, do perfect image generation and even really good video gen with SORA. This progress will keep doubling and doubling until we are reach AGI which will be to improve itself and then this chapter of humanity closes.

[@GrumpDog]

@@DantesHQ Kinda sad how that is flying over so many peoples' heads here.. This guy predicted the progress we're seeing now, nearly 30 years ago, progress that demands major changes to how our world works, and yet most people here are still acting like the people in the movie Idiocracy..

[@alexi111]

🤣

[@jeezumcrow1007]

I like how the futurist pulls out a printed out graph

[@freddiecuffe4688]

Lmao I was thinking the same thing. Futurist didn’t even laminate the documents

[@thanos879]

Right lol. A primitive sheet of paper. You would expect a futurist to be on the cutting edge of technology.

[@NETBotic]

@@thanos879 Years ago I predicted that futurists would still use paper documents.

[@inspectorcrud]

Yeah, he should have projected it onto Joe's face with a laser or something

[@SaltyEntropy]

A futurist who writes books is pretty funny

[@EricJacobusOfficial]

Ray's kid: I don't want 65 hamburgers Ray: you're not thinking exponentially

[@swphittman215]

😂😂😂😂😂😊

[@durandondemand]

Basic gist: It's growing exponentially. But are you? I'm still hopeful for those who are urgent in all things to maximize their potential, exponentially!

[@derekstaroba]

Ill remind you this is the same guy who said he hates humans and hopes robots reign Supreme. Cant blame him tbh

[@jopo7996]

I think Joe is finding this hard to follow, because all he's thinking about is how sweet those suspenders would be with his little rascals hat.

[@kotycassidy6955]

That made me laugh thanks😂

[@UnknownUser-fe5zu]

Facts

[@AndrewV1023]

Almost spit my coffe out 😂

[@davidbelen7199]

Remember when Bill called his kangol hat a lil rascal hat. He's never worn it after that ...😂

[@zillionfurball1451]

​@@davidbelen7199I was about to say the same thing 😂

[@yingle6027]

Bruh I haven't even reached human level intelligence yet. 2029 a laptop is smarter than me. 😭

[@Michael-hb3ip]

If your say "bruh" your opinion at that point DOESN'T MATTER LOL

[@clrs6576]

😂😂😂

[@talkdatalk1002]

the laptop is far smarter than you now as well as ur phone

[@RaiBread.]

No lol... ​@@talkdatalk1002

[@marcusrosales3344]

​@talkdatalk1002 Your response is based off the same phenomenon when a cat attacks itself in the mirror. The cat thinks the reflection is real, but it just mirrors what the cat does. This is CURRENT AI! It is a reflection of us, very little real understanding. A laptop itself isn't "smart" btw...

[@iovie]

Ray Kurzweil and his books are pretty legendary. He was the person who popularized the concept of the singularity to the mass public with his chilling explicit descriptions of what future technological milestones would look like and when they would occur which he wrote as if they were facts. He then single handedly defended his predictions throughout his life against the entire world community of critics and pessimists coming from all areas of science and the media. He is still standing today.

[@IAmTheRealBill]

Ray liberally interprets obvious failures as successes. Anyone can throw out general claims and defend them, that isn't special. For example, he claimed in the '90s or early 2000s that by 2009 most kids would learn how to read from computers before going to school. He claimed that was an accurate prediction, despite it not even being in the same ballpark as true today. He claimed it was accurate based on a single paper that stated as much as 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Note that: 1) 9% is not most 2) The paper did not say how they learned 3. There was no discussion on what trend may or may not exist Anyone claiming that was a successful prediction deserves truckloads of salt for other things they claim. When you dispense with his vague, obvious, or restated what someone else said or is doing "predictions" he has as abysmal of a record as any. And by obvious, I mean to experts. For example he "predicted" the fall of the USSR. However, that was a done deal for experts years before he said it - it was considered obvious and inevitable by the experts. Just because the common folk lacks the knowledge doesn't mean he is special for 'predicting' what the experts have already asserted is inevitable. Claiming in the 90s that computers will have cameras and replace the use of phones is another one. That was done on mainstream broadcast television in the 60s and predicted even back then. How about nanotech eliminating "most diseases" by the 2020s? So far not a single one has been. You're not going to exponentialize your way to that one in the next 5 years. I wouldn't call him a hack, though IMO "futurist" is largely a synonym for it. But he isn't actually good at objective, novel predictions on technology advancement, let alone social ones.

[@TonyCecala]

Truth. Taking his worldview will help you skate to where the puck will be. That he looks to be slowing down, or dresses funny, does not take away from his core insight that expands Moore’s Law backwards in time to an age before computers.

[@benbochenek4955]

This was painful. I did make a calendar reminder for 01/012029 with a link to this video. I’m going to test my current scecptisim and BS meter

[@DantesHQ]

You wont have to wait for 2029, AGI will be here in 2-3 years.

[@ryankueter8396]

😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊

[@webcamrandomness14]

31/12/2029

[@andrewstotz4689]

@@DantesHQno it won’t

[@Octwavian]

let's just hope the internet still exists by then...........

[@thanos879]

I had to pause it at 8:00 and scroll to the comments to make sure everyone called bullsht after hearing that 😂

[@dominick253]

Same!!!

[@user-cg7dg7uv8f]

LOL Same here - At 8:09 I was like “I don’t know if I find this credible” and went to the comments. Glad to see most everyone else’s bullshit meters went off as well

[@mrgobbleton]

😂 literally just did this

[@tertiusgous8348]

😂 8 minutes seems to be the bull shit handling standard

[@brushstroke3733]

I went there as soon as he started talking about solar power around 6:00. Glad to see Joe's listeners are a lot smarter than this quack.

[@Joey_Stringfellow]

This was an exponential waste of time..

[@chazmandingo5396]

You won't think that in 10 years

[@alfredoj9791]

@@chazmandingo5396 the only thing that exponentially wasted here is your comment.

[@matthewgrogg6375]

I can’t say for sure but I believe this was sarcasm, I’ll give it 10 years to be certain though

[@jamesallenyz431]

Best comment here. Dude was so full of himself

[@CantTellYou]

Disagree. We get to watch Rogan lose faith in his former hero, in real time!

[@Antwhitehead]

Joe: Can we pull it up online? Futurist: What’s online?

[@IAmTheRealBill]

Even funnier: he "predicted" in the 90s that by 2009 digital documents will have fully replaced paper documents. He considers that prediction a success, despite still using paper documents in 2023/2024.

[@Antwhitehead]

That's hilarious@@IAmTheRealBill

[@clintonleonard5187]

This futurist predicted the internet before "online" existed. Literally.

[@Antwhitehead]

@@clintonleonard5187 yet he looked at Joe like he has 3 heads when he asked him if they could pull up the information on the paper printout that he was handing across the table.

[@welcometoreality437]

​@@Antwhitehead most likely because he was trying to advertise his book and posting information like that would undermine it.

[@dwaynelattimore819]

Man Kurzweil is getting old. Hope he lives to see the Singularity

[@billj4525]

He plans on living forever. He just said it on Lex Fridmans podcast like a year ago. He thinks he will.

[@clintonleonard5187]

He's been focused on living forever since the 90s. He eats a really strict diet and takes a regimine of supplements.

[@glorfification]

Once it has human level intelligence, it will just spend all its time on social media, trolling people and reading celebrity gossip.

[@andrewferguson8032]

And playing video games

[@jedi4049]

simulates itself on drugs and alcohol

[@clintonleonard5187]

Human level intelligence - not exactly the same as being human. A computer wouldn't waste time trying to release dopamine. It doesn't produce dopamine.

[@jeremy454]

He has the same problem AI has with not being able to say I don’t know

[@honkytonkinson9787]

It’s like the cat in the box, until he knows he simultaneously knows and doesn’t know so exponential growth!

[@hamzahhassan9861]

😂😂😂😂

[@No_Limits_411]

Cos it will be exponential...

[@KennyVert]

Thank you very much for uploading these digestible clips.

[@selfawarepotassium]

This dude couldn’t look any less like the image of a futurist I had in my head. He looks more like an accordion player.

[@MathGPT]

I love that he brought a printed graph. Old school!

[@user-ty9ho4ct4k]

Old-school futurist

[@richardbroad2848]

Bless him!

[@Jake-Day]

Remind me in ten years KZbin.

[@JarrodDSchneider]

In ten years time KZbin’s reminders will have grown exponentially, meaning you won’t be able to find the recommendation for this video because there will be too many to sort through.

[@KeCasgrimola]

in ten years i’ll be exploring andromeda galaxy because agi in 5 years, asi in 6 years, and in 10 years we’ll have made 10 million years of technological progress @@JarrodDSchneider

[@phoenixrising7047]

Come back to this video in 10 years. Won't be long. Will be interesting to reflect on this mans position on things.

[@MacDaddyC7Z06]

Reminding you about it at 18 hrs.

[@boiboiboi1419]

See u next year

[@Trickmyster777]

Old guys get out of touch with reality, exponentially

[@davekush3171]

I listened to the whole episode. The asymmetry between this man's understanding of tech vs his understanding of humanity is dangerously immense!

[@davekush3171]

The perfect example of "we will invent it in somebody else will figure out how to handle it"

[@1214gooner]

Ray’s own computational power seems to be sputtering😂

[@djadsbeats]

Ray.I

[@dadisonline]

Exponentially

[@joshuaedwards3322]

Sure seems that way, but he's smiling like the cat who ate the canary... He's been working with computer intelligence before most of us were allowed off the porch. Also, he knows 3.5 million sheeple are watching. "How do I give them enough to be terrified, but not so terrified that they actually get off the couch and do something about this grape-session they are about to receive"?

[@CantTellYou]

idk about that, he’s clearly a ventriloquist dummy

[@andrecheers9169]

Facts

[@Feedmezz]

His predictions are partly based on the fact that he’s 77 years old so it needs to happen before he dies lol

[@ocallesp]

5 years from now.... that is not easy for someone that is sick or too old

[@mas-udal-hassan9277]

​@@ocallesp😅😅😅

[@DioBrandoWRYYYYYY]

Kurtzweil is actually a cook who believes that eventually everyone is going to live forever

[@timothyvincent3436]

Or he figures he will be dead soon so why bother changing his mind now. F it. Kind of like Keynesian economics.

[@stephenvangogh1]

@@ocallesp he's been saying this for 30 years

[@SandNebula232]

I’m making exponential gains of brain damage the more I watch this

[@LowkeyFish]

Ray Kurzweil is a legend. Most of you guys are the crazy ones...

[@eliaskahila]

Yes, he really has an incredible career and life-of-work and he has been spot on on predictions as well. He is old, and having a tired day here, but judging from the comments here I feel people have no idea who he is. If they knew who he is, the comments wouldnt be like this. Sorry for Ray!

[@nychris2258]

Yes, unfortunately most of Joe Rogan's audience are m0r0ns... Kurzweil is getting up there in years. He was a lot sharper at explaining this stuff 10 or 20 years ago. He's been accurately predicting the growth of computing power for like 50 years now.

[@rohithkoteval1785]

Yes

[@billj4525]

Well yeah, 90% of the comments on any youtube page are full of stupidity.

[@AbdullahMikalRodriguez]

Ray is bat shit crazy. He wants to revive his dead father with AI. These futurists have some serious personal issues...

[@brenthekideire]

I'm still waiting for the hoover boards from back to the future.

[@andrewferguson8032]

Ray is still working on his flux capacitor made from kitchen parts

[@epicswirl]

Do you mean hover? Or like a Hoover vacuum you can ride?

[@shaunbauer78]

Antigravity tech is still strictly area 51

[@Monsux]

What is freaky about AI intelligence… The exponential growth. Start may seem slow, but learning rate isn't linear. Look back one year, two years, three years… Now make predictions for next year or two. It's going to be a wild ride.

[@ghost9-9ghost]

Precisely....and anyone who has had a kid has observed this in humans....they sometimes take a LONG time for their first word...and then 2 months later they are talking... Same with reading...I have a cousin who was slow to read....was concerning...but then she reached a threshold and just suddenly was reading everything like an adult

[@activision4170]

The learning rate is a constant mate. It is linear by definition. Dynamic learning rates aren't really mainstream yet. Or do you mean loss?

[@thestarseeker8196]

I get the interview is a little sleepy but do people here really not know who Kurzweil is?

[@Good.Glacier]

Exactly my friend! A bunch of idiot savant bashing a true gentle Genius, Ray easily is still in the top 20 minds on the Planet right now. How disrespectful Joe has become.e, Joe is straight up a Dunce, he thinks his talking points are intelligence....what a dink.......what this chat shows specifically is that America is in great trouble when the vast majority actually think Joe is more intelligent and on point than Kurzweil.....I mean did they forget about Ramona? Tons of companies usurped Ray's work over the years, he alone basically invented AI with that project alone.

[@z1z2z3z]

I read two of his books, dude is a self aggrandizing hack who moves the goalposts continually to make his predictions 'correct' and then has the gall to brag about it, an intellectual for nit-wits.

[@lewisburton1852]

right! crazy. "he developed the Kurzweil Reading Machine-the first machine that could read printed and typed documents aloud." and that's just one thing.

[@TornSoul062473]

No. No, they don't.

[@eliaskahila]

Judging from this comment section, man, I think most have absolutely no idea who he is and how legendary of a career he has had.

[@awfulpwn]

A lot of you guys don't know how important Ray Kurzweil is and it shows.

[@brushstroke3733]

Important how? To whom?

[@zrblank]

Rogan has a lot of ignorant followers and it shows, you can see the contrast over on fridmans interview

[@RaggedAdam]

I've seen transcendent man. The guy is a bit of a lunatic.

[@zsombornagy3935]

@@brushstroke3733He's important to Larry Page... and Neil DeGrasse Tyson, need anymore?

[@brushstroke3733]

@@zsombornagy3935 NDT is a windbag, so that just undermines RK reputation even further. Larry Page likes RK - well whooptie doo.

[@Overloaded877]

People who say AI will never replace humans are in the first stage of grief = *Denial*

[@michaelkupfer3723]

The AI needs us more than we need it

[@activision4170]

Depends what you mean by replace

[@southoc1355]

Every answer “exponentially” 😂😂😂😂

[@nexgen1701]

Great questions Joe, A.I. Pushing Ideology is one of the scary ones.

[@Selfsufficientme]

It's ALWAYS 10 years away... abundant energy, cure for cancer, end of the world etc etc... 😀👍

[@IAmTheRealBill]

Even YS congressional budgeting is based ion "the next ten tears" and we can see how terrible that winds up.

[@Jagar_Tharn]

But it's 5 years away. You didn't even read the title of the video did you?

[@G73Server]

Yea those things actually helping people are kond skept under a rug, this shito tho? Uncontrollable, we are going to see it in the next (few) year(s)

[@Jagar_Tharn]

@@G73Server kond skept shito???

[@samtesla2248]

Bearable at 1.3 speed.

[@nobody-cl1xr]

Fixed it

[@microchrist6122]

He sounds so normal at that speed it seems like this is a slowed down joke haha

[@EolosMusic]

You’re the kind of person that needs a subway surfers video put on the side, bc of your short attention span 😂😂😂😂

[@sonnylambert4893]

@@EolosMusic​​⁠Somebody makes a observation that is obvious to the majority of us because the guest is speaking extremely slowly. And meandering also I might ad, as if he’s hoping what he saying will make logical senve as he goes along. So in his and your own ideological defence, I am assuming ! you decide to insult that comment or, And many others who are agreeing, by saying they have some sort of attention deficit. So just what “of person are you”!😂

[@blinkers88]

@@sonnylambert4893what on earth are you rambling about

[@matthewmiller2206]

A futurist who brings paper charts to a podcast… checks out.

[@IAmTheRealBill]

who predicted that in 2009 we'd see the end of paper documents as they'd be replaced by digital documents. 😂

[@robertd9850]

Aptera is already developing a solar charging car. Solar panels on the roof, hood, dash, and back add up to 40 miles per day depending on where you live, time of year, weather, etc.

[@1214gooner]

“We don’t need nuclear, we have sun and wind and 10 years.” “I’m sorry sir, the only truth here is that you yourself have less than 10 years of life.” “No, I have another 100 years. It’s exponential growth.”

[@andreavanda5402]

Yup, years ago he said this was a race of beating the AI clock before his own demise.

[@inspectorcrud]

He's actually slightly younger than Sly, hard to believe I know

[@replynotificationsdisabled]

everything is nuclear

[@dertythegrower]

​@@replynotificationsdisabledNo... the one in Miami has been leaking.. my first video is in the closest public park lake to it.. i know more sorry, its not safe. Undeniable science.

[@dertythegrower]

Not safe.. the miami plant is leaking.. end of convo you lose.

[@R.Gresco]

What a marvelous toupee

[@Jay-407]

Exponentially

[@martinsatyen7833]

​@@Jay-407Toupeexponentially

[@TeresaBelcher02]

Great interview Thank you for having Ray Kurzweil on I have followed him for years, he is an extraordinary man.

[@victorr2245]

This exponential discussion was exponentially exponential.

[@atomtamadas]

This guy is the Peter Zeihan of technology :D

[@ghost9-9ghost]

I think zeihans hair is natural tho...

[@justinkassinger8238]

Peter is right on mostly everything. Just cuz your one of the people who buys into the "the dollar is dying, buy gold!" Scam. Don't be mad that your a sheep

[@brushstroke3733]

😂😂

[@jeltoninc.8542]

What are some things Peter has been wrong in? Genuinely interested as I have watched some of his vids but I’m not a fanboy or anything. I just like watching people hike and talk 🤣

[@MrExtr1234]

Not even close😂 guy's an engineer/scientist, zeihan is just some smooth brain commentator

[@alexrangel490]

I think he really needs a nap. He was very flabbergasted on the "is this graph online" question. Lol

[@dominick253]

He looked like he wanted to say damn kids want everything to be online. I have this perfectly printed out piece of paper here. 😅😅😅

[@ghost9-9ghost]

​@dominick253 when society collapses you will be begging this lunatic for a sketch pad and a pencil...haha

[@Occult-Classist]

​@dominick253 i mean that kind of has been his point. Just because he acknowledges the advancement of tech, it doesn't mean he loves it or wants to constantly engage with it. Quite the opposite, really.

[@robertd9850]

It's in the book.

[@doobiescoobie]

He was like, damn, who is going to buy my books if you kids want everything online.

[@coastcity7029]

AI will be so smart in the next decade that people will begin worshipping one like a God

[@kirkfabrin4839]

Yep.somepeople are already at that point now with their phone!

[@billj4525]

In terms of usage yeah. The guy with the comment about the phone is right. Technically some people are already there with their phone.

[@shanebplante]

Ai will make us gods

[@activision4170]

As a computer scientist, I would cringe so hard

[@trapexit]

He's just wrong about solar panels. Yes, panels have improved in efficiency but that doesn't mean you are significantly improving the efficiency per square inch. And batteries are not exponentially better.

[@FATMAN_tactical]

Man bear pig will raise the oceans by 2012

[@gabes3dvideos]

Total faith in scientism is exponentially embarrassing with age.

[@Natsirt666]

Scientism?? That's... not a thing my dude...

[@zrblank]

Tf is scientism lol

[@IAmTheRealBill]

@@zrblank something you could look up on the Internet. it is essentially a quasi-religious belief that science and the scientific method are the only way to render truth about reality. That said, the OP seems to be misunderstanding it.

[@IAmTheRealBill]

@@Natsirt666 yes it is, my dude. But it isn't what the OP seems to think it is.

[@shiddy.]

same as any ism

[@TheNaturalust]

The efficiency of solar panels hits some pretty hard limits based on the materials used to make semiconductors.

[@ryantogo8359]

Nope you're totally wrong. Because muh exponential growth

[@TheNaturalust]

@@ryantogo8359 As an electrical engineer who has worked in and done research in that field, I must say you are wrong. But it’s pretty deeply technical and outside the understanding of 95% of people. Efficiencies started at about 6% when I started in this field and we’ve come a long way however.

[@activision4170]

@@TheNaturalust It's a joke because the guy in the podcast is just saying exponential growth

[@Ravum]

The 2 important questions about AI that people never ask: 1. Will it appear on jre as a guest? 2. Will authorities find a dismembered body in its house afterwards?

[@activision4170]

If an AI bought a house before us, I'd be pissed. Sell it to humans dammit.

[@masonm600]

I read his book "The Singularity Is Near" in 2004. He has stayed remarkably consistent in his big predictions. Which conveniently are still years out. But he doesn't always see the gap between "there is tech for this" and "there is demand for this." And yes, he applies exponential growth to everything, even places it doesn't apply. Case in point: he says life expectancy is on an exponential growth curve. And average can look like that if you squint, but *maximum* lifespan has remained consistently ~120.

[@andrewferguson8032]

He is confirmation bias personified

[@IAmTheRealBill]

Indeed, he does *now* consistently say these things are "a decade' or "decades" out. Because despite what the comment section here believes, his actual accuracy is in the gutter.

[@user-sv4rp3yd4x]

Joe wantes to call BULL SH#T but he's too nice

[@kathleenp3135]

He’s so nice.

[@geoalpha]

He matches the energy of who he talks to, generally. Kurzweil is so soft spoken nowadays Joe just wants to get him talking at all.

[@Gnaritas42]

Yup, he believes Elon over Ray, as he should. Ray is talking out of his ass right now.

[@bhavjotsingh3190]

Like he knows shit about technology lmao

[@joespeigle1240]

This conversation reminds me of a slow motion version of the 7 Minute Abs scene from There's Something About Mary

[@arsemyth8920]

What a surreal conversation

[@WillyJunior]

If this dude doesn't drink coffee he needs to start

[@ghost9-9ghost]

He's old and he has spent the last 20 years sewing those suspenders....so hes not in the best shape...haha

[@IAmTheRealBill]

@@ghost9-9ghost worse, if he is still on it, he was on a "less than 10% dietary fat" diet he allegedly came up with. That is about a third of what the few scientific papers to address neuroprotective intake uses.

[@ghost9-9ghost]

@IAmTheRealBill I very much agree....low fat diets are a terrible idea....despite that both keto and carnivore diets are based on pseudo science and the lies of zealots, one of the few things they have as benefit are fat content.....and putting niche studies aside, fat is simply required....structurally and functionally .. for human biology Yeah it's sad...I don't know much about kurzweil....but.....whatever he may have been in the past is gone...

[@1labrinth]

When the technologist has paper documents be skeptical

[@omememe]

absolutely agree that with the advent of A.I., quantum computing and the rest of technology we might have all of these options available, but weather they will be implemented is entirely different question to answer.

[@TheBlackClockOfTime]

Really listen to his point on LLMs regarding the timeline of progress. If you don't get it: listen to it as many times as it takes for you to get it. 9:40 (for about 30-60 sec from there before they go into hallucination).

[@chaselepard]

Duncan's dad seems nice

[@jamesb6102]

Joe a man who knows he doesnt know. Ray a man who thinks he knows.

[@andrewferguson8032]

Is Ray related to Mike Baker?

[@ryansark1795]

New drinking game, every time he says" expidential growth"

[@satorified1612]

I’d be puking my guts out…..

[@familyfulkerson3257]

Guys, I'm an old fart and therefore know this guys story. He is hands down the most famous futurist, and for being right.... Bill gates called him the best predicter of future tech he knew. I do not personally have an opinion about this current conversation. I also, can't tell if he is speaking broadly or not. Or if he is speaking functionally possible vs actually implemented. What I want to say is, his background is incredible. He invented some very impressive tech back in the day before becoming famous as a futurist. If you are into this kind of information, it is worth your time to do a deep dive on Ray Kurzweil. I will say, his age is showing and that is painful to see. I've been with tech every step of the way. These last couple yrs have been the most dramatic, and that makes sense in the context of exponential growth. Its the later steps that see the biggest jumps. I do not rule out what he is saying in terms of technically possible, but sadly, I do not see humans functionally implementing it that quickly.

[@Good.Glacier]

💯 this chat full of idiot Joe worshipers, Ray's mind still is in the top 20 of everyone on the Planet, he literally invented AI with "Ramona"

[@collinbergkamp7077]

I hear you. This comment section is sad and says a lot about where Rogan's audience is these days... painfully dumb.

[@andrewferguson8032]

Good analysis, but Ray has clearly lost touch with feasibility. Just his argument about the grid was so far off, it was exponential

[@elijahspears5778]

Yep. One of the most prolific inventors ever. People don't really know who this dude is.

[@z1z2z3z]

I know Ray, read "the singularity is near" book like 15 years ago, almost 100% of his predictions fell flat on their face. Then he wrote another book about how right he was and just moved the goal posts for all his predictions. Bill Gates praised him? you mean the college drop-out who buys out governing bodies and then makes his money off forced medical treatments? cool story

[@Iamrightyouarewrong]

Well he's wrong.

[@angryoperatorakacrazybob8998]

Ya I agree. .I think..lol

[@breadgarlichouse2265]

why is he wrong? How do you know that you are not wrong?

[@nonnobis2232]

In my expert opinion I concur!

[@stephenvangogh1]

Sounds like you have not been keeping up

[@_hootjohnson]

Maybe he means AI is getting dumber every year. If that’s the case, he would be right.

[@RustOnWindows]

To truly become human it has to be wrong and fail at times. Have to be able to purposefully oppose things to create awkward situations

[@freddiecuffe4688]

True statement

[@ryantogo8359]

Literally no one said anything about becoming human, Merlin

[@TheBlueB0mber]

Expectation: AI gets smarter Reality: Human gets *dumber*

[@static1dragon]

We still do not have light processing at the level we need for true AI. Not just novel machine learning tasks we call AI. Processing still needs to be much better. 2029 is still too early for that. I would be surprised if true light processing was halfway there by 2029.

[@BOZ_11]

he's conflating the growth in computational power with "AI" (chatbot) programs. LLM's will plateau and we'll need a paradigm shift to make big strides; it is not linear, it's stop-go for "AI"

[@theredknight9314]

No

[@GovnaBuckingham]

cars are literally driving themselves cuh

[@thechatgpttutor]

might be the case, but LLMs can be made better, faster etc all those nice things before we need something 'new'

[@DantesHQ]

Nope you are just straight up wrong. As we scale deep learning more and more emergent properties seem to emerge out of the systems. Claude 3 for example just passed the needle in the haystack and display high levels of situational awareness. This all happened because we optimized and scaled. There could be a few things that we are missing, but so far it seems like we wont be needing those things.

[@activision4170]

@@DantesHQ No, they do plateau. You're talking about the training data / model which isn't really what they're talking about. Think about the the number of layers in a network. For example, Resnet-50 vs Resnet-101 vs ResNet-152. The improvement among adding the layers is not exponential to the number of extra layers, and it will plateau eventually (i.e., error % is typically not much different from Resnet-101 vs Resnet-152 compared to the difference between Resent-50 and Resent-101 which is larger). Computational power helps a lot, but that's not all it is. They need to design better architectures.

[@arryharry]

Just in time for the predicted 2030 reset... 😅

[@jeltoninc.8542]

You see it for what it is. Nothing is “by accident” or “random”.

[@walterreuther1779]

So bacterial growth in a substrate, say in a batch of inoculated beer substrate is exponential for a while. At some point, the alcohol concentration is too high, or the space is too limited, or there just isn't enough sugar for the growth to continue and it slows and stops. This is the first thing I am thinking of when I think of exponential growth. I wonder why he seems to think that it will go on indefinitely, for the solar panel example for instance ...

[@youknowkbbaby]

Moores law is already dead.

[@jamescrawford9707]

I know Robert Deniro in disguise when I see it!

[@jeffpost5709]

This dude sounds like he’s talkin out his ass

[@nathanthegod731]

Agreed

[@ghost9-9ghost]

I think his geomagnetic poles are in the middle of shifting...

[@terenceflanagan1225]

He is

[@Atticus_Moore]

Rebuilding the grid will be the most vital step

[@MilGrip76]

Distributed power ftw

[@ModerateObserver]

Kurzweil's whole schtick is unjustified long-term extrapolation of exponential curves. Turn his exponentials into (more realistic) s-curves and the end scenario looks a lot different. We could well find that out soon when solar plateaus, when GPT 5 proves an incremental advance.

[@FractalPrism.]

there is no s-curve, no 'schtick'. no matter the window of time viewed, technology advancement has always been exponential disliking how this is constantly proven correct does not make it less so

[@LK-ui9rx]

"100% Renewable energy in 10 years" That's not even possible theoretically

[@jwm2762]

lol you're not accounting for the exponential growth though

[@KernalPanics]

Ya not gonna happen.

[@KernalPanics]

And the use of energy is going up a lot year by year now due to crypto mining and A.I. training as the training of them uses a lot of energy and is only going up.

[@andreavanda5402]

Until the grid collapses! Nikola Tesla he's NOT!

[@gypsyemperor7535]

​@@andreavanda5402 Nikola Tesla was a mad man who died in poverty, most of his ideas were pure insanity

[@erinfreize4717]

The slope of the line is decreasing these last thirty years, but the scale of the y axis is exponential.

[@Kameezy]

Shows a graph of linear progression. "Exponentially"

[@jonjondabomb9809]

Log scale on y axis so ya straight line is exponential

[@hexa3333]

My guy doesn't understand what a logarithmic scale is 💀💀💀

[@goodleshoes]

If you look at the numbers on the left side you'll see that the growth is exponential.

[@Jagar_Tharn]

🤡 How does your foot taste?

[@creativename6126]

Rays entire philosophy stems from a deep rooted fear of death. All of his estimations have always been for it to happen right before he reaches the life expectancy. The singularity has a major issue in that it does not account for diminishing returns, nor does it account for sentient AI just not willing to be enslaved.

[@DantesHQ]

If you read his book he answers all of that. Diminishing returns do not exist with technology because technology innovations compound between each other. We use old technology to build better technology and we then use better technology to build even more amazing things. This is what leads to exponential growth.

[@yaboiflint5926]

@@DantesHQah yes the exponential growth, I forgot to take that into account

[@zsombornagy3935]

@@DantesHQThats most people's problem in the comments, they don't read his book or anything about him, they go off this podcast appearance and make assumptions.

[@lewisburton1852]

@@DantesHQ Diminishing returns exist accross the board even tech just manufacturing chips is a huge problem.

[@BaphomentIsAwsome666]

​@@DantesHQThe plank length would like to talk to you

[@bkb04g]

Solar panels have an upper bound for effeciency at around 45%, but thats not a bottleneck, you can simply produce panels. They have increased dramatically from what existed in the 90's however.

[@LukeWatson1]

I think they’re speaking at cross purposes between the amount of deployed solar (exponential) vs the efficiency of a given PV panel (incremental).

[@IAmTheRealBill]

It is pretty common for people to obsess over a panel's technical efficiency while completely glossing over physical limitations of materials, deployment, etc.. Regardless of technical efficiency, the typical solar installation runs at about 15% capacity - compared to coal with runs around 80% of capacity and can spike to full capacity. Then you have to consider the inconsistency of it - meaning you need energy storage, typically a battery bank, to try to level it out. The battery tech is a massive limiting factor absent an unimagined breakthrough; in part because the physical supply of key materials on the planet are insufficiently available.

[@JorgeEstebann]

Joe, in Los Angeles we have not had any issues with the power grid since you left. 👀

[@kcwkembm]

But you still live in l.a...

[@ryantogo8359]

​@@kcwkembmthat's because a million other people fled as well 😂

[@IAmTheRealBill]

@@ryantogo8359 and CA is importing most of its electricity.

[@ShadyNorris]

It will happen in (insert random number) years. Trust me.

[@mikenapier3598]

I was waiting for that guy to pull out an overhead projector....

[@andrewtrottier9951]

Ray: "We're making exponential growth on that too" Joe: "but are we really?" 😂

[@samdavis456]

We need to create AI that has to sleep 8 hours a day to give us a chance 😅😴

[@captainbumface3595]

Chating shit, AI still thinks the Vikings are black.

[@michaeldeats328]

Whose to say they weren’t black be more open minded

[@_Scarlet1]

@@michaeldeats328history. History says that Vikings weren’t black

[@Pir-o]

That's the stupidity of people who put restrictions on it, not stupidity of the AI itself.

[@michaeldeats328]

@@_Scarlet1 yea but they also said Jesus was white your claims are sus your stance feeble and your beliefs flawed, go to the yard with the other specials and play nice

[@GovnaBuckingham]

woosh@@_Scarlet1

[@quanah]

I read his books, "The Age of Intelligent Machines" and "The Age of Spiritual Machines," around 2003. He predicted everything that's going on with AI so precisely. Kurzweil is the best.

[@JesusChristBlesses]

“Uhm, exponential, uhm, exponentially, uhhhhhhhhhmmmmm…”*powers down AI self*

[@kakamarioluigi]

We need to change the name to SI simulated intelligence, lets not be too hasty to put this stuff on a pedestal.

[@IAmTheRealBill]

Or just use language model.

[@activision4170]

@@IAmTheRealBill Can't be language model because not all models are language-based (e.g., CNN).

[@activision4170]

How about: Curve optimization Why even say intelligence? That's where people go wrong.

[@GrumpDog]

Do people not realize how serious this is? This should be the CENTRAL election issue! How workers are going to survive as AI takes most jobs businesses were once willing to pay humans for, needs to be prepared for ASAP! Our labor based economy will not continue to work! The average worker should not starve, just because AI will soon do most work.

[@MichaelErnest666]

UBI

[@terenceflanagan1225]

🤣. You're very presumptive that anytimg will be resembling order in 2 years

[@IAmTheRealBill]

Nice parody.

[@Jagar_Tharn]

@@IAmTheRealBill Ignorance is bliss.

[@activision4170]

Labor based economy is failing without AI.

[@MG77740]

I was worried that it was just geometric grow but so glad that it’s exponential.

[@ianstradian]

This guy has a very bright outlook on the future. We are reaching the limits of several technologies and unless we make some unforeseen discoveries that allow us a grand leap forward we are not going to be renewables dependent

[@stevehaney344]

I couldn't help but chuckle when the guy talking about how rapidly technology is advancing pulled out a graph on paper then didn't answer when Joe asked if the graph was available online. No matter how we keep up with tech it seems there will always be some old tech we'll hold onto.

[@Jagar_Tharn]

Ray: "I have this info in a book I am currently selling." Joe: "But can people get it online for free?" Ray: *hesitates* comment section: 🤡

[@activision4170]

It's difficult to transition to newer technology because it requires a lot of relearning which is usually done at a young age.

[@LoadPuller]

When was his last prediction correct?

[@TomPeary]

Apparently he has 88% success rate but I’ve not seen the predictions themselves. I just don’t trust his appearance 😂

[@anu1776]

@@TomPearylmfao he does look a bit off hahahaha

[@dertythegrower]

I have proven ones here.. he does not.

[@tacitozetticci9308]

It's basically the same deal as Dr Ben Goertzel lol but yeah in the end they aren't nuts. (Ray is clearly getting old though, this clip sucks)

[@IAmTheRealBill]

@@TomPeary The 86% figure thrown around about him is one he came up with. But it includes obviously failed predictions as accurate. For example he claimed that by 2009 most kids (presuming in the western countries, or even just in America) would learn to read at home before school using computers. Clearly that didn't happen. But in his self-analysis of his "own" predictions he called it accurate because a single paper claimed that 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Nothing in the paper attributed it to computers at home, and 9% is much closer to 0% than it is 51%. He basically makes vague assertions that experts in the field are already doing, then claims credit when something can remotely be interpreted as him predicting it. Another example he claims is that he predicted the fall of the USSR. but experts had done that years before.

[@kpag3030]

Growth may be predictably steady, but what form that growth takes is variable.

[@MrJy96]

How much energy could be harnessed from a 110 mile long super city in the Desert?

[@txterbug]

2029 kind of an odd exact number

[@winstonsol8713]

In 2027 he’ll adjust this to 2035. And so on. In 1990 everyone thought we’d be on Mars and have flying cars before 2020.

[@RuinStatue]

Only movie buffs thought that.

[@willyword3413]

Not that tho it’s like Moore’s law it will prob be a bit sooner

[@EolosMusic]

Actually he has said 2029 since like 50 years ago so you’re wrong lol

[@EolosMusic]

@@willyword3413 These plebs don’t know what’s coming 😅

[@masonm600]

He's had the same date since at least 2003. Singularity 2045! But ya he just waves away the idea we could plateau any time soon.

[@DynamicUnreal]

He’s not wrong. He’s off by about 5 years but at the current pace - solar energy production seems to be doubling every 3.5 years. If it continues at this rate of growth then solar will replace all other forms of energy in 15 years. He’s probably overly optimistic on the rate of adoption but he’s correct about the exponential growth component. Personally I am already amazed when driving through some NJ suburbs and seeing entire neighborhoods with solar panel roofs. It’s happening a lot faster than people think or expect.

[@billthomas8994]

If AGI becomes self-aware, will it be able to see beyond our limitations of space-time existence, especially through the limitations of our five senses, and extend into multidimensional awareness, and if so, will it be able to explain this to us or to even confirm that we live in a simulation?