The Real Estate Debt Reset Has Begun

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Ken McElroy

Ken McElroy

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 169
@KenMcElroy
@KenMcElroy 4 күн бұрын
If you want to support the channel, please share this video
@AlchemistJedi
@AlchemistJedi 4 күн бұрын
i love you said dscr needs to be 1.8. Especially with expenses going up due to inflation round 2 incoming. We need the extra meat on the bone to stay profitable
@petelipson3769
@petelipson3769 3 күн бұрын
Ken, i read your book ABC's of R.E. Investing for the first time 15 years ago. Have read the hard copy 3,4 times and listened to the compact disc version in my vehicle 5x plus. My investment in your book has returned me 1,000+%........we own in Colo and Neb......thank you so much.
@Sanchyfab
@Sanchyfab 4 күн бұрын
Tax and insurance rate increases seem to be pushing investment homes back onto the market. All the profit from holding a rental property are being sucked away. Without cash flow, you'll be eager to get rid of the property now, while the prices are still relatively high.
@Sanchyfab
@Sanchyfab 4 күн бұрын
37% of sellers dropped their prices in Denver over the last month?! Wow.....the crash in the mountain states is officially in motion. I guess people being called back to the office is a huge factor - the WH dream is over for most people.
@V.stones
@V.stones 3 күн бұрын
It's a vicious cycle. If people can't afford homes, they might delay retirement savings, but if they focus solely on saving for retirement without considering their housing situation, they might miss out on potential investment opportunities.
@V.stones
@V.stones 3 күн бұрын
It's crucial for individuals to diversify their portfolios, seek professional financial advice, and stay informed about market trends to navigate these challenges effectively.
@camela8445Mar
@camela8445Mar 3 күн бұрын
Agreed, it's why I've always delegated my excesses to an advisor, since suffering major portfolio loss early 2020, amid covid outbreak. I'm now semi-retired and only work 7.5 hours a week, with barely 25% short of my $1m retirement goal after subsequent investments to date.
@camela8445Mar
@camela8445Mar 3 күн бұрын
My CFA, Joseph Nick Cahill has assisted me in doing that efficiently, he is a renowned figure in his field. I recommend researching his name online; you'll find all his credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, he is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
@edshannon5406
@edshannon5406 4 күн бұрын
This formula doesn't work with properties valued at 1 million or less because investors like you are just buying them up with no debt to the bank (all cash). I have investors from all over the country calling me daily to buy my multi unit all cash. I really enjoyed the refresher course on NOI and Cap rate for example though. Thank you again!
@derekmason1790
@derekmason1790 4 күн бұрын
Saw on X yesterday that 40% of homes in Cleveland were sold to out of state llcs.
@brianheath5091
@brianheath5091 18 сағат бұрын
So you’re saying it will be impossible for a new investor to buy a small apartment building in the near future, because we’ll be outbid by the big dogs? Great…
@investfourmore
@investfourmore 3 күн бұрын
One of my commercial loans came due this year after 5 years. The bank called me. Refied it with no appraisal, $500 fee, 6.5%, and with my lower loan amount the payment was about the same.
@AK-rza
@AK-rza 3 күн бұрын
Yes, if you didn't over pay at the start then you should be fine. The issue of over paying up front exponentially increases with an increasing property size. I'm guessing you were on a 20 year or less amortization which also plays a big factor.
@Austin1990
@Austin1990 3 күн бұрын
I looked at a new, local, multiplex. It was only a few percent return after expenses. You literally lose money to do all the work of managing a property when compared to just buying a Treasury.
@PinkFZeppelin
@PinkFZeppelin 20 сағат бұрын
Even after you calculate the equity gained by debt service?
@fudogwhisperer3590
@fudogwhisperer3590 4 күн бұрын
Not only that, insurance prices are going NUTS too, due to inflation. Here in Florida its up 200 to 400%. Its insane.
@krueger367
@krueger367 4 күн бұрын
It's theft... federal reserve... a non gooberment entity is allowed to create money out of thin air. Devaluing the dollars through ppl have to work to earn... in doing so causes inflation. Home equity appears like your home is worth more. They than can steal more money from the ppl through taxes as well as insurance going up. Oh... not to mention wages never really go up that much.. never keeping up with them inflating currency units. We are forced into debt slavery.
@Steve-wz5pz
@Steve-wz5pz 3 күн бұрын
Insurance prices are up primarily because of the increasing claims activity directly arising from climate change-related severe weather.
@Jimbo12880
@Jimbo12880 3 күн бұрын
That's not inflation, that's just greed. THEY need more of your money that way they can sit pretty while they deny your claim
@sudiptaraxit3778
@sudiptaraxit3778 2 күн бұрын
If I were an insurer, I would avoid Florida.
@a.m.m.4592
@a.m.m.4592 2 күн бұрын
Increased claims are driving insurance premiums increases. Illinois had a big hail storm in May. Soon as late Spring hit, everyone got new roofs via insurance. Cost ranging from $12k-&$60k. If you drove around the suburbs every day from May to October a new roof was going up.
@iamone469
@iamone469 4 күн бұрын
What a concise, fabulous presentation! Although many of us so called insiders know the predicament on 2008 and predictions for 2025, Ken went fully technical (giving us detailed organized specs), but described in the simplest terms.. Good job, Ken! Thanks, AB
@veromudia5721
@veromudia5721 3 күн бұрын
*Hallelujah!!! I'm the favorite, $60,000 every week! Now I can afford anything and also support the work of God and the church.*
@WilliamLocke-yl7on
@WilliamLocke-yl7on 3 күн бұрын
Oh really? Tell us more! Always interested in hearing stories of successes.
@555frontier
@555frontier 2 күн бұрын
Tell us more about this scammer please
@bryangionet4949
@bryangionet4949 4 күн бұрын
The DSCR is one of the most important factors for the bank I'm currently working with. Ken I think you're the only one talking about commercial real estate on KZbin that has ever mentioned DSCR.
@janalgos
@janalgos 4 күн бұрын
1.8 DSCR requirement seems way high.... especially for class A
@joelumia323
@joelumia323 2 күн бұрын
If the original investors have to add 500k when they sell to get out of the deal, why wouldn't they just hold it for 5 years, pay the 125k negative cashflow, and hope interest rates come down.
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 4 күн бұрын
If these commercial properties are in distress because interest rates went from 4% (in 2021) to 7% (in 2024) and you buy these distressed properties in 2025 at somewhat of a discount (compared to the original owner who bought at the top of the market in 2021), what happens to the value of your investment if interest rates rise from 7% (in 2024) to 10% (in 2028)? Wouldn't values just continue to fall? And if so, wouldn't you just end up becoming the 2nd bag holder of a rapidly crashing commercial investment property? So basically, during this period of runaway Federal deficit spending which is igniting historic levels of inflation (due also in part to the Federal Reserve's current policy of balance sheet tapering), aren't you just foolishly gambling that interest rates on commercial real estate loans aren't going to continue to rise after 2025? Are you really prepared to gamble millions of your dollars that the US government and Fed are willing or even able to prevent the commercial asset bubble from violently popping and crashing? In stock trading, I believe that the term is called "trying to catch a falling knife".
@craigb3154
@craigb3154 4 күн бұрын
It also assumes you always have tenants who not only exist, but are willing to pay more and more each year.
@AK-rza
@AK-rza 3 күн бұрын
All real estate is local... So it's tough to generalize. I like your thought process but don't forget how much money is out there to buy stuff. Also, always keep track of the cost to build. This is a huge factor and will keep most locales with high prices even if there is a nation wide decline. Only those areas overbuilt will have big decreases to value. Most markets are lacking inventory
@eddiemalvin
@eddiemalvin Күн бұрын
You simply need to factor that risk into the offer price. Sellers are fearing the same so some are willing to consider steep discounts. On the East Coast, we're seeing properties offered below market and we're offering 20-30% below that and some sellers are taking us up on it.
@d-jbrazovan698
@d-jbrazovan698 Күн бұрын
I’ve heard Ken talk about this before. Yes maybe discounting 10% to retail or what was retail might still be problematic. But if you’re picking up properties up at a more significant discount (let’s say 40%) then even if cap rates continue to decompress and values go down you will be okay. Also you are assuming that you also are getting a variable rate loan that needs to be refinanced with higher interest. If you get fixed rate financing and the property adequately cash flows you are set. You just need to watch out for other variable costs like insurance, taxes, utilities (depending on lease types), etc.
@d-jbrazovan698
@d-jbrazovan698 Күн бұрын
@@craigb3154yes but that’s why you need to look at absorption rates etc to see how the demand trend will continue. It’s not a matter of if the tenants exist, but what rents will need to be to be competitive in your local market
@pddellow
@pddellow 2 күн бұрын
I have a DST exactly in that situation.. Probably going to lose my investment. (it is a multi apartment complex) MY question is.. can we get out with just losing our initial investment or can the bank hit us up for more money?
@3978te
@3978te 4 күн бұрын
17,5M - 70% out of 25M, not 75% 7,5M - 30% out of 25M, not 25%
@Ahmed-b3t3k
@Ahmed-b3t3k 3 күн бұрын
How to analysing a deal and How can you determine the real price of a deal?
@ccolburn4945
@ccolburn4945 4 күн бұрын
great explanation on this very easy to understand i work the maintenance side of multi family what most of these buyer never learned was asset preservation these properties are a mess on top of value going down most properties have been run into the ground with lack of parts and inexperienced help most of these properties will need ton of cash to bring them back up to par
@keithray7471
@keithray7471 2 күн бұрын
Now is the time to do a variable rate. Why would you do a fixed when are rates are expected to be flat at best?
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 Күн бұрын
Becuase yields are going up not down. Be really careful. The exact same thing happened in 2008. Once those ARMs kicked in people got crushed. I think the yields go way higher from here.... not lower.
@Ji-Min-j7b
@Ji-Min-j7b Күн бұрын
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
@Nernst96
@Nernst96 Күн бұрын
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market. I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
@PatrickLloyd-
@PatrickLloyd- Күн бұрын
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 80s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
@PhilipDunk
@PhilipDunk Күн бұрын
@@PatrickLloyd- My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you
@PatrickLloyd-
@PatrickLloyd- Күн бұрын
My CFA, Sophie Lynn Carrabus is a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
@RobbieNixon-d1w
@RobbieNixon-d1w Күн бұрын
Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
@danielgreen9291
@danielgreen9291 2 күн бұрын
I'm an LP on deal that is in exactly the same situation. They're trying to raise more capital from the original LPs. I'm not re-investing.
@MikeVenom-mini
@MikeVenom-mini Күн бұрын
Ken! Working hard i see
@perrytaylor8240
@perrytaylor8240 3 күн бұрын
Somewhat painfully basic question... in your above example are the cash flow, NOI and loan payments on a yearly timeframe? The math works out for paying 7% on 12.75 per year ~$892,000. Just used to seeing loan payments on a monthly basis.
@humanyoda
@humanyoda 2 күн бұрын
Do you, in this presentation, assume that the property owner has a variable-rate loan? Is that situation common?
@stevencarroll9613
@stevencarroll9613 14 сағат бұрын
Def makes sense why Financial market is outperforming right now to help set up the buying spree in 2025. Then its prob safe to assume REIT markets will start cooking late next year and into 2026. Great info here
@christopherf3918
@christopherf3918 Күн бұрын
I think cap rates are going much higher. Getting low rates is going to be a lot tougher than people think.
@Truth24434
@Truth24434 22 сағат бұрын
I wouldn’t call it so soon. Wait for next summer to confirm. Winter is always slow.
@sudiptaraxit3778
@sudiptaraxit3778 2 күн бұрын
Thank you Ken. Very useful.
@fernipascual
@fernipascual Күн бұрын
Is this an opportunity to buy reverse REIT ETFs?
@aspiceoflife
@aspiceoflife 3 күн бұрын
Is the cap rate always equal to the cash-on-cash return? They are in the video (4%)
@Jahguaar
@Jahguaar Күн бұрын
Knowledge supports growth.
@lubosimaboshe
@lubosimaboshe 4 күн бұрын
Thank you I have been trying to understand debt coverage ratio..this video lesson explains it clearly.😊thanks
@lubosimaboshe
@lubosimaboshe 4 күн бұрын
➡️ 5:11
@rodoconnor3
@rodoconnor3 3 күн бұрын
The calculated cash flow allows for interest payment only and not the principle of the loan, is the example assumed as interest only loan?
@DorianGreer
@DorianGreer 3 күн бұрын
So, why would you ever get a variable-rate loan?
@philipmehl9355
@philipmehl9355 3 күн бұрын
Where do u find distressed 17MM properties?
@echoeversky
@echoeversky 3 күн бұрын
The T10Y3M just went POSITIVE for the first time since Oct. of 22. This uninverting should be an additional spicy indication of the expected recession.
@URQ1450
@URQ1450 4 күн бұрын
Can you show a deal on a smaller scale something around 400k pls
@ryankent7000
@ryankent7000 3 күн бұрын
Yeah... if you can find a seller willing to let go of 8 million just to not loose a couple hundred thousand every year...
@edo4713
@edo4713 2 күн бұрын
Even with the numbers you used your still extremely high. Building have been selling for 50%-75% off. In commercial real estate. Slowly tricking over to multi family and residential. So many people who jumped on this jumped late. If you see it advertised online you’re late.
@notesc821
@notesc821 4 күн бұрын
Thank you!
@zalsavas1279
@zalsavas1279 4 күн бұрын
It sounds like using short term loans is gambling. So what would your financing terms look like if you were to buy the property in this example? Let’s assume interest rates go to 10% in 3-5 yrs from now. How would you avoid the same problem happening to you as the original buyer in this example? Thx
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 4 күн бұрын
You wouldn't avoid it; you would just become bag holder #2 in a long line of soon-to-be bag holders. Buying commercial real estate as the bubble is popping (or just after it has popped) is a money loser. Leveraging the purchase of commercial real estate with short-term variable-rate loans after the bubble has popped is financial suicide.
@delfimalvaro
@delfimalvaro 4 күн бұрын
Insane that info like this is available for free! 🔥
@arnocuban
@arnocuban 4 күн бұрын
Excellent video! Ken is giving us master classes of real estate for free! Who needs to pay for college?!
@gregariousgaming9787
@gregariousgaming9787 4 күн бұрын
Damn that was fire explanation
@ColinTWest
@ColinTWest 4 күн бұрын
Thank you so much for making all of your videos
@LRey85
@LRey85 3 күн бұрын
Who would have a variable loan back then? Most people have a fixed rate loan
@WTF-sh4is
@WTF-sh4is 4 күн бұрын
I personally would never sign on a deal where the cap rate (6%) is less than my borrow cost (7%). That’s foolish and a recipe for disaster later on. So the problem is worse when that seller goes to fire sale because they are going to offer less than $17m to account for their higher borrow cost. They are fu*ked
@robertfagan8363
@robertfagan8363 3 күн бұрын
Why wouldn't the lender's simply hold the property for a few years?
@cpcreit
@cpcreit 4 күн бұрын
History does sort of rhyme..2004-2006, lots of adjustable NINJA loans set to readjust come 2008-2009, right in time for the bust. These commercial deals done in 2021/2022, fast forward 3-5 yrs, we are there, 2025/2026 will be very interesting to see how it shakes out....
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 4 күн бұрын
Only this time, the Fed won't be able to save the credit markets and stop the downward spiral of commercial real estate prices; like they were able to do in 2009. During the 2008 financial crisis, the only bag holders were the original property buyers who bought during the 2004-2007 window and found themselves underwater when the real estate bubble popped in 2008. This time when the bubble pops, not only will the original buyers get crushed, but also so will the first wave of bottom feeder investors get crushed as the doom loop of credit tightening and illiquidity continues to spiral out of control. Best to wait until after interest rates peak and, as the saying goes, "... when there's blood in the streets."
@rangerdoc1029
@rangerdoc1029 Күн бұрын
History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
@Certifiedtreesindy
@Certifiedtreesindy 4 күн бұрын
nice class. good content
@mikewatch1487
@mikewatch1487 3 күн бұрын
Fools paradise when rates were 3%. Us seniors finally have interest rates that are better then inflation. Us savers have a place to park our money
@jonesmatthew7511
@jonesmatthew7511 2 күн бұрын
I still don't see a margin of safety even at a 7 or 8 % cap rate... I'm out
@mr.j5092
@mr.j5092 17 сағат бұрын
Why is this not part of High School curriculum??? 🤯
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 Күн бұрын
I thnk interest rates hit 7% sometime in 2025. It will hit 10% sometime in 2026. Regardless the yields are going up and 98% of the people playing this game have no idea what that means. But they will.
@87pony
@87pony 2 күн бұрын
Who the hell got a variable rate loan when they were under 3%?
@omved9217
@omved9217 2 күн бұрын
Why the value of property went down from 25M to 17M
@TheMohamed1952
@TheMohamed1952 3 күн бұрын
Bro .. if you really care about people .. don't advice anyone to buy any real estate now .. unless they are rich and can handle shocks
@CrackedCandy
@CrackedCandy 4 күн бұрын
How do we take advantage of this Ken? How do we position ourselves
@maplemutt158
@maplemutt158 4 күн бұрын
Generally correct, but the example is extreme. Max multifamily devaluation is closer to 20% and improving, so the $25M -> $20M worst case. Also, decent value adds produce 20%-40% increase in NOI, not 10%-20%. There will be more total losses than usual, but not as bad as this video implies.
@elijahsnow3119
@elijahsnow3119 4 күн бұрын
I think we’re going to see a shake out of the difference between the Value Adds you have done and the very shaky Value Adds i’ve seen locally.
@coolbrothergee5401
@coolbrothergee5401 4 күн бұрын
@ken mcelroy Will this happen to residential real estate? If not, why not?
@WTF-sh4is
@WTF-sh4is 4 күн бұрын
Because it’s fixed rate debt on all residential real estate.
@AJohnson0325
@AJohnson0325 4 күн бұрын
It would probably affect an ARM or balloon mortgage. If you have a fixed rate then probably not
@JessicaBurrell-gd9kq
@JessicaBurrell-gd9kq 4 күн бұрын
No they are valued differently
@Exitstrategies1
@Exitstrategies1 4 күн бұрын
Residential is driven by really only 2 things. Access to debt and multifamily rental prices. If access to debt grows prices increase or remain stable, if access is cut (due to systemic risks, or idiosyncratic risk) the opinion of value typically decreases. Multifamily rental rates either compress or inflate residential values, i.e. if the delta widens regarding renting vs local avg mortgage that will drive value up or down. These cause 2nd and 3rd order of effects, if combined, can create volatility within residential real estate (regardless of fixed residential rates).
@PASCALDAB
@PASCALDAB 4 күн бұрын
In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200,000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
@DonaldStokes-p
@DonaldStokes-p 4 күн бұрын
The truth is that if you make the right picks, you could make killer riches very quickly, although such profit usually needs expertise, as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.
@SeanTalkoff
@SeanTalkoff 4 күн бұрын
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advlsor, I currently have $985k in a well-diversified portfollo that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in st0cks, but you also need to be knowledgeable.
@viviancarolgioao
@viviancarolgioao 4 күн бұрын
@@SeanTalkoff How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
@avasdv
@avasdv Күн бұрын
30 year fixed residential good stable market
@shirleygriffin7672
@shirleygriffin7672 4 күн бұрын
Thanks for sharing today
@jnucleo
@jnucleo 4 күн бұрын
Stated in simple terms: these greedy investors that bought those properties at the height of the stimulus are going to lose their a$$eS and the vultures are waiting in the trees to start feeding.
@WealthyChronicle
@WealthyChronicle 4 күн бұрын
So basically, 2025 is going to be a yard sale for real estate. Who's ready to buy distressed properties on a budget? 🏠💰
@Scenthype
@Scenthype 4 күн бұрын
“NOI is what the bank is loaning against”is the best explanation I’ve heard for that measurement
@BigM0neyHustla
@BigM0neyHustla Күн бұрын
Its gonna pop
@danielterrill6927
@danielterrill6927 4 күн бұрын
CAP at 4% isn't worth the trouble
@southerntransplant2724
@southerntransplant2724 4 күн бұрын
Lower is better
@mrb9642
@mrb9642 3 күн бұрын
Lower is better if you are a seller, but as an investor higher CAP is what you want.
@Madridstrat
@Madridstrat 4 күн бұрын
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 4 күн бұрын
What makes you think that a commercial real estate crash isn't going to bleed over and cause contagion within the entire US economy and a severe downturn within the stock market?
@crouchhill
@crouchhill 4 күн бұрын
What's with the picture of Burry 🤔
@NeonPolygon
@NeonPolygon Күн бұрын
Thank you for your videos. In today’s uncertain economic climate, investors are rethinking how to protect and grow their wealth. With traditional banking systems under pressure, it’s crucial to explore alternative strategies. Diversifying into high-growth assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies can serve as a hedge against inflation and market downturns, offering not just capital preservation but also opportunities for higher returns. Personally, I’ve grown my portfolio to $532K in just a few months, thanks to the expert guidance of Loraine Souvenir. Her deep expertise and trading acumen have been invaluable in navigating this challenging financial landscape.
@blueyed147babe
@blueyed147babe Күн бұрын
Having access to reliable information is crucial for us as investors to succeed both financially and in life. This is valuable, I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
@AnithaB-ox6iu
@AnithaB-ox6iu Күн бұрын
Surprised to see her mentioned here! She tailors trading courses to suit beginners’ needs and really knows her stuff. Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey-definitely worth it!
@DiogoWestphal-hp6wu
@DiogoWestphal-hp6wu Күн бұрын
Wealth building and financial freedom are attainable with the right knowledge and tools. Using proper financial strategies and products is essential to growing and sustaining long-term wealth.. glad to know you want others to succeed
@Hernan21132
@Hernan21132 Күн бұрын
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
@Gary-vg3cg
@Gary-vg3cg Күн бұрын
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
@tettsubushi
@tettsubushi 4 күн бұрын
we are already seeing carnage in the rent-stabilized arena in NYC
@Thaksinnaenaudon103
@Thaksinnaenaudon103 4 күн бұрын
Thank you very much
@johntrevett2944
@johntrevett2944 4 күн бұрын
This isn't accurate for single family homes.
@mrjeff9169
@mrjeff9169 4 күн бұрын
Truth
@jackgoldman1
@jackgoldman1 4 күн бұрын
Return to normal, mean reversion, is painful for debt addicts, drug addicts, crypto addicts, speculation addicts, lying cheaters who have to go back to their honest loving spouse. It is painful to go back to normal. Seven per cent is the normal natural mortgage rate and interest rate. It is painful to go back to normal.
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 4 күн бұрын
Before the Fed got involved in manipulating credit markets and suppressing interest rates in 2000, normal mortgage rates ranges were between 7% and 11% (and up to 18% during high inflationary times). So, the question must be asked, as we continue to head into inflationary times, doesn't it stand to reason that mortgage interest rates will continue to rise as well? Also, is the Fed even able to suppress consumer interest rates anymore? The charts say no they are not.
@scottkidd1969
@scottkidd1969 4 күн бұрын
Definitely going to be some corrections, adjustments, restructures and properties going back to the lender. Not going to be full.
@SomeUserNameBlahBlah
@SomeUserNameBlahBlah 4 күн бұрын
This is one of several reasons why the Fed is lowering rates. So there won't be much to worry about.
@patmagic3301
@patmagic3301 4 күн бұрын
1% after December coming cut? Only 3-4 to go lol, not likely for some time. 2025 will be rough.
@AJohnson0325
@AJohnson0325 4 күн бұрын
The federal funds rate is about 4.5 percent buy mortgages are still high
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 4 күн бұрын
Even if the Fed was to continue to lower Fed Funds rates, it will have absolutely no effect on slowing the rise of consumer interest rates; which will continue as long as US deficit spending continues to throw gasoline on the inflation fire. The Fed has no more tools left in the tool box to tame interest rates within consumer credit markets. And once the bulk of investors in the credit markets figure this out, consumer interest rates will continue to explode higher and higher.
@patmagic3301
@patmagic3301 4 күн бұрын
How do we pay down the debt, become an exporter of goods and energy, correct unfair trade deficits, stop being the world police 🤷‍♂️
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 Күн бұрын
​@@patmagic3301 If Russa directed the issuance of a BRICS, asset-backed / gold backed currency as well as a BRICS-denominated debt instrument (think of it like a "Russian T-bill"), it would force the US to have to introduce a new "reset currency" that would have to be a digital currency or an asset-backed / gold-backed currency (call it either digital Fed Coin or gold-backed physical Fed coin). Every US citizen would get 90 days to trade in their old US dollars for the new Fed Coin at a fixed-price exchange rate. The minute that happens, then all that the US treasury has to do is just literally print the old US dollar into oblivion, Weimar-style, and then pay off its old US dollar-denominated debt in full, with ease, with hyper-deflated US dollars. As the old US dollar is being printed into toilet paper, the new Fed-Coin value will remain stable. THAT is exactly the time the US will have to start being a net exporter of goods and energy, THAT is exactly when the US will have to start to correct unfair trade deficits, and THAT is exactly when the US will no longer be able to borrow money to finance being the world's police.
@RiAirgead
@RiAirgead 4 күн бұрын
What % of Canadian houses are like this? It's probably a ton.
@fivestar6015
@fivestar6015 4 күн бұрын
Not a 3% to 4% jump. It's a 100% jump...and that's why they are in trouble.
@aboulding
@aboulding 4 күн бұрын
Didn't this guy put up a video 4 years ago about the risks of adjustable rates? No? Oh okay.
@sehrharoonmd8291
@sehrharoonmd8291 4 күн бұрын
Found a distressed new build sfh for 1M$ off. Price now 2.1M
@MA-id1hr
@MA-id1hr 3 күн бұрын
You guys and these false video titles. I won't click in any crap like this anymore. This is getting old, and NOTHING happens. F to the U! Big time!!! 😂
@alexanderatta-mora7919
@alexanderatta-mora7919 4 күн бұрын
Ken, you’re absolutely one of the most important living investors in the industry now. You’re certainly my go-to voice for reason and experience, but can you please ease up on the ‘sky-is-falling’ click bait? It seems off-brand to why people come to you.
@litical3719
@litical3719 4 күн бұрын
only way u can survive and get your message out on yt
@SK-lf1cr
@SK-lf1cr 4 күн бұрын
It’s what gets the clicks sadly 😅
@ThoneJones
@ThoneJones 2 күн бұрын
An important real estate investor? You’re going to have to explain that one to me.
@alexanderatta-mora7919
@alexanderatta-mora7919 2 күн бұрын
The onus is on you to learn this stuff. Numbers don’t lie
@polok890
@polok890 4 күн бұрын
Rent control is what we need
@TheGangjahman
@TheGangjahman 4 күн бұрын
~🔥~🍓👑🍓~🔥~
@ReynaDPerez
@ReynaDPerez 4 күн бұрын
Bet the investors are getting excited now 😅
@taylorvanallen4807
@taylorvanallen4807 4 күн бұрын
But what’s with the picture of Michael burry ?! lol
@kellyfontes7757
@kellyfontes7757 2 күн бұрын
Nope.. what happend in 2008 will not happen again. You tools have been saying this since 2017!!!
@perralipezir
@perralipezir 3 күн бұрын
While the video was educational it barely relates back to the emotional clikcbait title and thumbnail. As a viewer I feel like someone cried wolf for clicks. I appreciate quality math but not packaged like this. Won't click on your any other video because this felt like a deceitful letdown.
@JM-gu3tx
@JM-gu3tx 12 сағат бұрын
Feces is not holy. Very disrespectful and low class video title. Definitely gets a downvote for boorishness.
@piRatCaptain
@piRatCaptain 4 күн бұрын
Oh look another video about how this year the commercial real estate market is going to crash I wonder how many times he can be wrong before he finally gives up on these videos
@erickanter
@erickanter 4 күн бұрын
Commercial real estate is trash.
@jimdoak3658
@jimdoak3658 4 күн бұрын
(12/12/24) Look at the parabolic rise in commercial vacancy rates over the last 2-3 years. Look at the rising rate of defaults of real estate loans. Look at the rising rate of defaults in consumer credit cards, car loans, ect. The commercial real estate market has already peaked, the bubble has popped, and the crash has already begun. Some commercial sectors have become destressed early than other sectors; but to be sure, ALL sectors of commercial real estate will succumb to something resembling a severe correction to a major crash.
@BridgetMiller-
@BridgetMiller- 3 күн бұрын
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
@DhanaPayar
@DhanaPayar 3 күн бұрын
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such taskRead more
@Helen_white1
@Helen_white1 3 күн бұрын
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
@Lewistonwilliams-f5i
@Lewistonwilliams-f5i 3 күн бұрын
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
@Helen_white1
@Helen_white1 3 күн бұрын
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
@Thompson-e7h
@Thompson-e7h 3 күн бұрын
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
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