Kentucky Derby 2019: Omaha Beach!

[@slewofdamascus]

From a friend of mine (pay attention to the last part which touches on OB's 5th race in his form cycle): "The last 7 Derby winners won their last prep. That would leave the possible win contenders down to 8 using that alone. 81% of the Top 3 finishers in the past 7 years won their final prep. The average number of starts on their form cycle was 3.7. The top 4 average was slightly higher at 3.8. Horses who run 2nd in the Derby won their final prep 4 of 7 and 3 of those 4 were making start #3 or 4 on their form cycle. In 6 of the last 7 years the horse that ran 3rd in the Derby won their last prep and 5 of 7 were making their 3rd start of the form cycle in the Derby. Pretty interesting stat there. Here's where it gets interesting with the 5th start or more on form cycle. This is exactly the information I was hoping would pop up. 41 of 135 runners (30%) were making form start #5 or more. 24 of 41 was start #5 exactly so almost 50%. Important because Maximum Security and Omaha, 2 of the 6 expected top choices have this form cycle. Win rate 1/24 (4%), Top 3 (16%), Top 4 (20%). Overall start #5 or more Win Rate 1/41 (2%), Top 3 (9%), Top 4 (12%). In just the last three years alone 10 horses have ran in the Derby on form cycle start #5. Best finish 3rd, one 4th. Average finish for all 10 is 12th."

[@Johnny53kgb-nsa]

Why not just box the 8 that won their last race in a Derby tri ?

[@slewofdamascus]

@@Johnny53kgb-nsa how much is that

[@AugustinePM]

If you watch Mike Smith on any horse compared with other jocks, his body is super compacted behind the mane. It's just pure aerodynamics and physics. Also with Mike's big heart, experience, plus a great horse- he can do no wrong. My money's on Omaha Beach. Fingers crossed for Arkansas Derby 4/13/2019!!

[@cliffbiddle1299]

AugustinePM Smith is the best money rider in the country. If his horse has a shot in a big race Smith will be there.

[@rzz9594]

Thanks from New Mexico 👍

[@patriziabonini3324]

Oohooh ma ha

[@gregriessland1552]

Exactly, I love War Front and then you have Buckpasser on the dam side. I really like how he just takes a few cracks of the whip at the end to run well enough to win and gallops out by a good 5 lengths.

[@suzanne9622]

Congratulations to Omaha Beach and all his connections for the great win at the Arkansas Derby! I hope Mike Smith will chose Omaha to ride in the Kentucky Derby! I think the chances are against this however since he says he will leave the decision up to his agent who is Brad Pegram, a big Baffert supporter. I wish Mike would help Mr. Porter and Mr. Mandella get their first Derby win. Would be nice to see someone besides CHC continue to get every triple crown race win. Would be such a feel good story to see Mr. Mandella and Mr. Porter get their first Derby. I do believe Omaha a great horse, I have always thought that, but the jockey combination can also make all the difference. Positive thoughts, hopes and prayers are with Omaha and his group for continued success and safe trips.

[@mechelesingleton1312]

Who are you looking at for exacts trifecta and superficial for derby ?

[@ratherbwithhorses]

Thank you for your posts.

[@JayCNehfracing]

Thanks for watching KR

[@Ronnieprice1979]

Excellent breakdown

[@Dan-zp7tn]

ronnie price I see what you did there lol

[@bandovreal22]

We will see how the West Coast division stacks up against the east. I have a feeling Hidden Scroll is sitting on a huge effort tomorrow, and will probably move forward if he can get in the big dance. It would be nice if Bill Mott can win a Kentucky Derby, grant it, hopefully HS can rate off a hot pace.

[@JayCNehfracing]

I'm partial to the Westies for sure. They've won 5 of the last 7 Ky Derbies

[@suzanne9622]

Omaha Beach has been dealing with an injury for the past two months; he injured the hoof during the Santa Ana 7/8th race. It was a wet track that day and doesn't that make the track surface at Santa Anita very hard to run on? Another victim of the Santa Anita racetrack. I wish they would resurface it and make Santa Anita great again. Although a quarter crack is quite serious, it could have been even worse. I hope he will heal up with time (which is difficult during the most high level racing schedule). He is in the best of hands though.

[@Johnny53kgb-nsa]

Jay I really enjoy hearing your thoughts on the horses leading up to the Ky. Derby. Thank you for posting. John

[@JayCNehfracing]

Thanks for watching John

[@teresawort9124]

Really great horse. Thanks for the vid

[@JayCNehfracing]

Thanks Teresa

[@chriswhereyouat]

Another great video Jay, I am a huge fan of war front, I loved uncle benny, war of will and Omaha beach. I was able to bet War front in the first sire pool and Omaha beach in the future Los Vegas pool. The stamina is amazing. I will be watching Big money Mike and see if he will ride Roadster or Omaha beach in the derby ( seeing Roadster makes it) l can wait until you get your beauties on the track.

[@JayCNehfracing]

Thanks Foxy. We bought a grandson of War Front at Keeneland September. Couldn't afford a son!

[@chriswhereyouat]

@@JayCNehfracing if my future bets are correct I will see you at the next Keendland sale. I look forward to seeing him on the track.

[@truthseeker2055]

Roadster is one of my two Kentucky Derby futures bets (Improbable is the other) so if he makes it into the Derby I really hope Mike chooses him....Mike is a X factor who can really make a difference in a race like the Kentucky Derby....

[@chriswhereyouat]

@@truthseeker2055 I agree, I will be watching Mike, I know he has a great relationship with BB, but he wants to win so I'm following him. Great job on the future picks.

[@perryellis1423]

mike smith is riding Omaha Beach

[@billbriscoe9414]

Jay, do you think Mike Smith will ride Omaha Beach in the KD and not Roadster?

[@kathrynhelmink5445]

I would think he would ride Omaha Beach, but it's up to him. He knows the horses better than I. I only watch them on the computer.

[@altonsutherland566]

Thanks for your video Jay...Great analysis on Omaha Beach..Love your attention to detail. In a game of inches every bit of info helps in putting together a winning ticket...How are your beauties doing?...With the mess at Santa Anita aka the track etc..That has to put a damper on your training, and getting your stable up and prepared for racing...Best of luck.. Al. From Canada.

[@JayCNehfracing]

Hi Alton. We lost a little time but Evening Sonnet (Stay Thirsty) and Siena Silk (Shanghai Bobby) are really coming along nicely. We sent Aristeia (Creative Cause) and Big Hoof Dynamite (Data Link) to the farm to grow a bit.

[@rashadrashad9350]

With Jay u will see his horse run in the moon cause he love to explore

[@johnmaddon3529]

Get over here

[@ske1071]

Thank you Jay

[@chieftain5391]

Omaha Beach is a serious horse especially on a sloppy track which seems to be the norm the last few years in Kentucky. Right now he has to be the favorite. I still like Tacitus and Game Winner though. If War of Will is right he moves smoothly and will be in the SF!

[@JayCNehfracing]

Tacitus should have the OB crew a little nervous.

[@clockendfarm]

"Uneasy is the head that wears the Crown", so they say. And whether the fanbois like it or not, Mr. Baffert's crown is very very shaky this year. Omaha Beach is one of my picks, for sure.

[@JayCNehfracing]

Love the Shakespeare quote

[@thomasblue6064]

Jay i also like Omaha Beach, and i also like the winner of the first division race of the Rebel. I watched Long Range Toody last fall at Remington Park and I have watched his success at Oaklawn this year. I don't know if is on the level of the East and West coast 3yr olds, but I do know he is doing the things a 3yr old at this time of the year should be doing, and that is improving each race out. Keep up the good work and thank you.

[@JayCNehfracing]

Thanks Blue. these 3 yo's haven't really sorted out anything definitive yet.

[@lookingnervous8312]

Toddy is Legit Take charge Lady is his Grandma like Omaha Beach #FAM

[@jenniferlehman2464]

Interesting to see how he has Danzig, Dancer and Mr. Prospector on his sires side, and on his dams side Buckpasser and Secretariat. All great horses in their own right. Should be interesting to see how he handles the atmosphere at Louisville!!

[@JayCNehfracing]

Great pedigree!

[@frankturchianojr.4246]

Love him this Saturday.... if its a wet track, lookout !!! Could be a romp in the mud !!

[@devinace7832]

I know it's kinda off topic but do anybody know a good website to watch newly released series online?

[@uriahallen7212]

@Devin Ace i watch on Flixzone. You can find it on google =)

[@lbarbados38]

Hi Jay, I'm with you on this one! He's my pick right now, gutsy win in the Rebel. Looks like Big Money Mike only hit him once or twice near the very end. He galloped out well too. Look out!

[@JayCNehfracing]

Good obsevation on that gallop out

[@ske1071]

That horse is insane fast. very impressive i want to see him run with improbable.

[@JayCNehfracing]

You just might

[@freddiealcon4166]

I think by my standards the winner of the Louisiana derby has a great shot and the Kentucky derby

[@mattduckshalos]

Omaha Beach is a tough horse (look at his Jan4 race). That being said, he had the perfect trip in the Rebel and I don't know what separates him from many of the others. Baffert runners rarely need a race. That being said, I think Game Winner needed his race in the Rebel. I love his latest workout on xbtv in company with Dr. Dorr and I think a move forward coming. On a side note, I hate his action and the action of many Candy Ride progeny. It looks like he's hitting the ground so hard. I was a little disappointed with Improbable's Rebel even though he had an excuse (lost ground). The only runner I've seen with star talent is Hidden Scroll. Love all your videos. Thanks and keep em coming!

[@JayCNehfracing]

Thanks Matt. You're right, Baffert is still the one you have to worry about.

[@jimcunningham61]

I like improbable he had to go wide in ark derby , and was very game in the stretch

[@MrJug98]

Rick Porter bought a dozen 2 year olds to end up with OB. Ricks health isn’t very good. He deserves a big win. Havre de Grace and Songbird were his trophies. He needs one of the triple races to complete himself. Rick has had a nice racing career since 92 and has two of the top selling mares of all time. Remember 2008 derby, when Eight Belles was put down. She was Ricks also and she took second in the derby. He has had the gals, but now he wants his lad in there. Mike road Songbird, so he is not new with Fox Hill.

[@JayCNehfracing]

I love OB and hope he gets the roses

[@MrJug98]

I'm kind of favoring Tacitus. My top four are: Cutting Humor, Tacitus, Mucho Gusto and Improbable. I think MG & Imp are sore. No work outs are showing. I like how they are limiting Tacitus and how he shows up to race. Nice and calm entering the track.

[@mariedenoyer2173]

I love Mr. Prospector! And of course Secretariat!

[@jamesreed7566]

I think Game Winner wins derby.3rd start off lay off and game both prep races and didn't have to win either race.. running him to go into Ky derby off two nice races and he should be in peak condition .

[@mariolorbes2936]

Of course he was focus...

[@kenwaring]

Jay, I appreciate your affinity for Buckpasser, but Mr. Prospector seems to appear in all the top horse's pedigree. For instance, he was in all 20 of last year's Derby runners, outpacing Secretariat's count of 17.

[@JayCNehfracing]

True. But I focus on the distaff (dam's) side of the pedigree where there is far more variation from one horse to another. I believe this aspect of a horse's make-up is somewhat neglected by handicappers.

[@JayCNehfracing]

BTW, great to hear from you Ken.

[@kenwaring]

@@JayCNehfracing I love your videos! I was hoping you were going to share your insights on the Derby again this year and you didn't disappoint.

[@ske1071]

Im changing my mind since mike smith is jokey

[@JayCNehfracing]

That'll do it to ya

[@matthewsanchez1863]

Sharon Edwards mike Smith has a decision to make, who will he choose roadster or ohama beach.. my bet is on roadster plus he’s more loyal to baffert

[@rashadrashad9350]

Jay why u don't invest on good padgree like this and make your famous move from turf to dirt changed jokey every race change a distance change running style pooor LA he was really good horse at bad hand

[@jamesnewberry3155]

Love it Jay, always amazing. I'd love to here stride length video's on two other favorites in the Kentucky Derby upcoming. Roadster and Maximum Security. I know you'll have other requests, so obviously if you can. Thank you, James

[@RONNIEVERR]

Jay I really enjoy listening to your insight, it's fascinating!! Thanks for all you do. I LOVE Omaha Beach, pulling hard for Richard Mandela to get his first Derby win, he deserves a great win, class act!!

[@rzz9594]

Looks like game winner got schooled by Omaha beach , can Omaha beach the game and improbable? I hope so 👍🤔

[@matthewsanchez1863]

Robert Patterson and roadster today beat game winner too kinda wrapped up by mike Smith, roadster will probably beat ohama beach. I wonder who smith will choose for the derby ?? Any thoughts