Key Questions Ahead of 2024 AAC Football Media Days

In this video, we preview the 2024 American Athletic Conference Football Media Days happening on July 22nd & 23rd. We have two key questions for AAC Commissioner, Tim Pernetti. One is related to realignment and the other is regarding the Army/Navy game. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!!
Pernitti Article Interview Link:
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#CollegeFootball #AAC #Realignment
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[@stephensipe5405]

Holy Sheetz!!! I come back from a European Vacation and Trey dumps a load of pre-media day speculation on us! I saw Switzerland, Austria, and Germany. My son the soccer fan got to be in Munich for the Semi and Berlin for the final. English fans are nuts! Now for AAC News: 1: The Army-Navy game would add value no matter how the money is resolved. 2: Keeping an even balance is important to the AAC. Air Force and Georgia State are 2 easy adds in the AAC model. This might be all that is needed for stability. 3: An AAC West Division might be possible under certain circumstances if this has ESPN support. Although this type of expansion might currently seem too far out, it could occur. I hope Trey asks the right questions and gets the right answers at AAC Media Days.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Welcome back sir!! Looking forward to your 2024 season forecast 💯💥

[@aBrewster29]

OSU/WSU are hoping for an ACC invite. If that doesn’t happen and they don’t merge with the MW, but instead pick off select MW programs then you can bet Tulane and Memphis will have wandering eyes out west. USF is also a very strong ACC candidate, given their market and AAU status. A good play for the American might be to lure Air Force away from the MW/Pac. I think they’re realistic about their ceiling and might find maximum value in aligning with the other service academies.

[@GR-bn3xj]

@aBrewster29 a couple of months I would have agreed with you, but memphis and tulane aren't going out there unless the offer is better than their current deal. I just can't see who is gonna pay more

[@aBrewster29]

@@GR-bn3xj agree. They’d have to wait and see how that shakes out, and those figures are going to change with realignment. I’m of the opinion that Tulane and Memphis contribute disproportionately to the current AAC deal, so presumably they’d be moving that value wherever they land.

[@GR-bn3xj]

@@aBrewster29 I am also curious how the committee picks the G5 rep. If they do what they did last year and just picked the team with the best record, it doesn't give any incentive to test yourself with a better schedule or conference

[@aBrewster29]

@@GR-bn3xj correct. I’ve been trying to make that point with people who don’t see the value in a PAC12-MW merger. Unless you can cobble together something that closes the gap with the Big 12 (impossible, IMO) your focus is revenue.

[@stephensipe5405]

I emailed your info address with my 2024 AAC Football Forecast. Let’s hope I can beat last season’s 62% overall. I was 82% OOC and 59% AAC.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

I look forward to checking it out! If I remember correctly, I think ECU was the one that hurt you on AAC percentage

[@stephensipe5405]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Yes, ECU hurt. I do have them sharply rebounding this season. I hope I am not burned again!

[@GR-bn3xj]

@stephensipe5405 last year, my friend and I picked about 15 games against the spread. I finished with a 64% win percentage, which is insane good if betting. I wonder how much putting money up would have influenced those picks

[@stephensipe5405]

@@GR-bn3xj This is the difference between my forecasting ALL the AAC football games and gamblers beating the spread. You are cherry picking. I am calling every game. You void tossups in spread. I pick the winner based on criteria for that game. Even my 83% in OOC games is based on flat W/L. Additionally, unless you are betting Team over/under records preseason, you are probably making picks on Tuesday week of versus my forecast in July. I could just give Team totals in July like a Sports Magazine, but I call every game in the AAC. I am sure you avoided ECU and Temple. I did not. If you continue to make bets, try Phil Steele’s weekly service. Maybe your success will go over 75%.

[@GR-bn3xj]

@stephensipe5405 That is indeed very impressive. What I did, was pick around fifteen games at least a week. Usually the ranked teams and my favorite G5 teams. I haven't actually gambled since college with it. I was just curious how I would do against the spread, Considering back then 55% was good. If you bet the same one every game. I did not, do that. It's much easier to gamble now, And was curious how I could do. Because I was not betting money, it was much easier to pick some games and upsets. I'm just curious if I actually bet money if it would change how I picked. I'll never know that until I actually try lol. But yes, you are correct, I picked the games the week of, so picking them early is tougher.

[@Andoverx]

Liberty would probably accept an invite to the AAC. Though i do kind of want them in the same conference as JMU. Its young, and they haven't played yet at the FBS level, but that has the makings of a good in state rivalry.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Just put em both in the AAC 😁

[@milliesparks1692]

East Carolina will return in 24! An all new explosive offense from the Mississippi tree will complement a loaded experienced dominant defense! Go Pirates!!!

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Which transfer QB is going to start??

[@polakngu22]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Katin Houser is the favored starter. However both Houser and Garcia are looking great. Either QB will be competitive and could walk out game one to give ECU a chance to win and be explosive.

[@polakngu22]

ECU is poised to have a very explosive year. The offensive talent is outstanding as well as the depth. JDB (New OC) is the next “Riley”, young, motivated, aggressive and very intelligent. ECU also returns one of the best defenses in college football. It would have been a top 25 defense if it weren’t for the horrible offensive disaster that occurred last year. Buckle up because ECU may just rock G5 football this year. People are sleeping on ECU, big time.

[@milliesparks1692]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Katin Houser from Michigan State was the first to transfer in. He was a major recruit out of high school. Last year was a total offensive failure at MSU (as it was at ECU). He seems to be a bit better when things break down than Jake Garcia from Missouri. Both had strong Springs and have earned praise from ECU coaches and players. Houser has been on site a bit longer and seems to have a slight edge. The portal was very productive overall. FSU transfer and former All Big 12 slot Winston Wright Jr has looked dynamic. NC State transfer speedster Anthony Smith at 6'3 has been very effective at WR. The TE & RB rooms are deep. The line won't be great but it is now very experienced and has been supplemented with transfers. The new scheme and offensive coaches will wisely not expose the weaknesses of the line by insisting on a run first predictable philosophy which was totally ineffective in 23.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Improved QB play and this new offensive system could have ECU as a darkhorse to win the conference!

[@Sidney8770]

Boise State at Georgia Southern first game!! Hail Southern!!

[@Maester0]

We coming for yall! Jeanty all day!

[@brandonh5360]

Idk, it really only seems like USF, Memphis, and Tulane will be expansion targets. Maybe SDSU. But who else?

[@drgat6953]

In the AAC? Maybe UTSA or North Texas if the next round of realignment happens in 2036 instead of next year. But otherwise I agree.

[@brandonh5360]

@@drgat6953 North Texas?!?! 😬 I’m going to have to disagree heavily

[@atgdcommish608]

UTSA has been winning a lot of football games lately (9 last year, 11 before that.) I've seen some talk of East Carolina if the other Carolina teams leave the ACC.

[@brandonh5360]

@@atgdcommish608 UTSA is a maybe. They’re too young and lacking the facilities at the moment to be a serious target

[@DayOneRob]

Trey, if you really want to make the dynasty mode challenging, raise the level of difficulty from the AI. It makes the game more challenging, realistic, and fun.

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

How do I do that? I’m on Heisman difficulty I’m still an OC so I’ve barely played any defense…my 1 defensive play resulted in giving up a game winning 90+ yard Hail Mary

[@DayOneRob]

@@CollegeUnderdogs if you are already on the most difficult setting and killing it, then you are just outright good bro! 😎

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

I’ve got a long way to go defensively 🤣🤣 Offensively I’m doing well but I just ran into a buzz saw known as the Georgia defense 9-2 right now in year 1 as OC at Arkansas

[@chitowntiger1]

Pernetti put out feelers to the Memphis media about a cap on what teams can spend in the AAC. Yeah Memphis Tulane and USF want to lower the bar so the rest of the league can catch up. If he thinks he can handcuff any team in the conference he's not the right commissioner. Memphis would love to get their nuts cut off for the good of the conference. No thanks Timmy.

[@dgart7434]

Great conversation as usual Trey! As for the question of who would be on the AAC shortlist. My first answer would be no one. With 14 football programs the AAC could stand to lose a couple of schools and be just fine. Now, if they drop to 11 or less they will likely add again. The first and most obvious option is Liberty. After that it becomes challenging, maybe Western Kentucky or FIU. There is a reason for that, if you remember back during the last round of AAC expansion Aresco tried to go for MWC schools but they were not interested, only then did he target C-USA. The reason why is that the MWC and C-USA did not have tv deals with ESPN. But the AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt all have exclusive deals with ESPN. As a result I think the AAC can't poach from those two Conferences without ticking off ESPN who would have to basically pay more for the same content.

[@atgdcommish608]

The AAC is the top G5 conference, so it's the most likely to be raided. The Pac12 will come shopping to rebuild the Pac (along with the best Mountain West teams), and the ACC or Big12 will look to the AAC for refills if the SEC or B1G raid them.

[@tjwillis47]

Hey Trey, do you ever join podcasts as a guest? We have a Memphis Tigers based podcast & would love to have you on one day

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Yes, connect w/ me on Twitter (@imtreysmith)

[@robertcochran5029]

As a USF fan I WANT OUT OF THIS GOD AWFUL CONFERENCE

[@paulmezzetta6905]

Mountain West Conference will not vote to dissolve itself so only 6 members will join the PAC-2

[@michaelfrederick6768]

Great content. You raise some interesting points. I know it was yesterday but you said the AAC Commisoner told you that ESPN did their AAC look in last year. I'm dying to know the results.

[@tonyrrd]

Why do you always leave Charlotte out of discussion..Largest city in Carolina with lots of resources

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

It’s not intentional…I agree with you, I’ll do better with that It may be because I immediately associate ECU with North Carolina

[@robertstwocents]

The UNC collegiate board of governors is expressing strongly to Chapel Hill and NC State to offer an expansion bid to East Carolina University. They’re currently is legislation in place guaranteeing that UNC and NC State maintain rivalries with other public state universities such as Appalachian State East Carolina and UNCC. I believe the point of the legislation combined with the recommendation of ECU , is to offer a way for the state to let NC State and UNC travel to different conferences. However, they want to guarantee that they maintain at least one public university in the ACC. They do not control, Wake Forest and Duke, but it seems like they would be one of the last teams to leave the ACC. This would likely guarantee that the ACC headquarters remain in North Carolina.

[@michaelwall3393]

The best G5 conference top to bottom is the SBC as of now. The Presidents and Chancellors ultimately decide who is added to a conference but let’s not act like the networks and investors are the true drivers because they are. That is the part of the McMurphy report article that I laughed at when he said networks are not driving realignment but the schools and conferences are. We all know that is not true. The AAC is in trouble to a degree. The top of the AAC are just Memphis and possibly Tulane with potential UTSA and USF maybe. The top of the MWC are Wyoming, Air Force, Boise State possibly and maybe Fresno State. The top of the MAC are NIU, Miami-Ohio, Toledo, Ohio, and maybe Western Michigan and Central Michigan. The top of the SBC are JMU, Marshall, App State, CCU, Troy, Georgia Southern, ULL, maybe even South Alabama and Arkansas St and rising Texas St. The top of the CUSA league are Liberty, WKU, and possibly Jax State. I went through to show that the SBC has the most depth. When the contract expires with ESPN for AAC, they could be financially downgraded to the SBC payroll and SBC elevated to the revenue level of AAC or higher and force certain teams to move to the SBC instead of the other way around. The AAC makes more than other G5 conferences at this time; and yet, were unsuccessful in acquiring any MTN West schools and MAC schools and stuck with grabbing CUSA schools where only one school in football has delivered thus far in UTSA. The rest of the adds were highly disappointing and damaging to the conference status and outward appearance and development. The AAC needs Tulsa, UNT, FAU, ECU, Army, Navy, UAB, and Rice to be bowl eligible and five of those schools need to win their bowl games respectively to go with top 2-4 teams in the conference. The BiG10 gets the most money for all sports and so on, but best football conference is SEC and best basketball conference is a toss up between ACC and New Big East. Point is that the AAC gets the most money of the non autonomy conferences but is not the best as of late in any sport unfortunately. That’s how much can change in one to three years if not careful. If you don’t pull together, then you get pulled apart; see the former PAC12, the Old Big East, the Metro Conference, the Old Big West Conference, the Original MVC, the Big 8, and SWC for details about what I mean.

[@CCOS1214]

Aac has army coming in and could add liberty if the sun belt won't

[@GR-bn3xj]

Well, the best conferences are never judged top to bottom. They are measured at the top. Otherwise, the Big 12 would be considered the best conference lately. I do not disagree with you that the sunbelt is the nest overall, At least right now, but it only takes one team to have a better season than your conference champion to change that

[@Andoverx]

I agree. I just think the AAC whiffed on realignment in the last round. They had the opportunity to kneecap the SBC by adding Coastal, App State, Troy, Louisiana, etc. Or they could've added Liberty from the Independents. The point is they could've grabbed brands that were already putting a lot into their programs and were somewhat relevant. I really didn't like the additions they've made recently, except Army (that one made sense). As someone who lives in NC App State is way more relevant than Charlotte. The only football that matters in Charlotte is the Panthers.... and honestly they aren't that interesting right now either...

[@GR-bn3xj]

@Andoverx I agree for the most part. I think the media market has always been too important in these decisions. Short-term, you are correct, but in the long term, maybe the teams will step up with the additional money being in the AAC brings them. 3 or 4 sbc teams would have been better as far as competition on the field, especially last year

[@CCOS1214]

@@Andoverx aac was playing the long game. . Utsa is a good choice, army brings numbers now, Charlotte is bad but it's a fast growing state and huge city. Rice meh..

[@terryfox9344]

There is one school in CUSA besides Liberty that might consider paying whatever to join the AAC, and that is Western Kentucky. I find it interesting that the ACC is rumored to being pressured by NC sources to take East Carolina as a replacement for FSU and Clemson. While ECU is part of the NC system, so are NC Charlotte (AAC), and App St (SBC). I fully understand where Sun Belt fans are coming from, but the conference has not proven itself the equal of the AAC, in the eyes of the folks who follow "power" conference football. As far as the AAC, they should keep their head on a swivel and go after the best schools that become available. My current list would include: Old Dominion, Liberty, James Madison, Marshall, Miami (OH), Western KY, App St, Georgia St, So AL, Texas St, Air Force, and Colorado St. Finally with regard to Army-Navy, that game needs to be a conference game ASAP. It needs to be moved to another date, preferably a holiday weekend, and no other FBS school should be allowed to play on that date. Regardless of the media partner, the net profits need to go to the league. (This is what Notre Dame did the year that the ACC took them in, NBC broadcast ND's home games as usual, but the money went to the ACC, and everyone shared in it.)

[@CollegeUnderdogs]

Great stuff here! Those teams you named would be solid additions Does WKU have the funds to absorb the GOR hit? $800k per year remaining on existing deal (which is 4-5 yrs left)

[@tylernelson3343]

@@CollegeUnderdogs Trey you need to address the issues with people who are cutting the cord on Cable and Satellite Television and people who are going to streaming services. How does it affect college football in the future especially when the media deals come up.

[@patpozzuto4809]

#KZbinSUCKS

[@BilltheTulaneGuy]

🌊🌊🌊 #distraction #RollWave

[@michaelwall3393]

I know you did an interview with Aresco last year or last summer about the AAC keeping its revenue value receiving from primarily ESPN. But if 2-3-4 more schools were to leave the AAC, no way they would not see a reduced revenue structure and unfortunately see the SBC get elevated to the highest paid non autonomy conference. But it does not mean that they would receive more money if they raided AAC schools or MWC schools or MAC schools. This also applies to the MWC raiding the AAC if they get more money than the AAC and get equal revenue for adding more schools from other G5 conferences or FCS. The AAC has got to finagle a deal to ensure that they stay at the top financially of the Non Autonomy Conferences and be rewarded prorated for additional schools added as long as they meet benchmarks and performance standards across the board in academics and athletics. As I mentioned before last year, I stand by the 2-2-2-2 model; unless as you said here, the MWC and some SBC get grabbed by a rebuilt version of a now G6 PAC. If both conferences don’t bring up FCS powers to their respective conferences, then I would say that AAC could add leftovers from MWC and add a few FCS stalwarts. They could then look to see if money can be given as additional revenue for SBC or MAC schools added to AAC since both conferences are ESPN commodities. The purpose is to keep the AAC the highest revenue generating and distribution Non Autonomy Conference. This will hopefully most importantly keep AAC as the best in football and all other sports and academics, as these are institutions of higher learning first and foremost, supposedly 😅.

[@robertstwocents]

The UNC collegiate board of governors is expressing strongly to Chapel Hill and NC State to offer an expansion bid to East Carolina University. They’re currently is legislation in place guaranteeing that UNC and NC State maintain rivalries with other public state universities such as Appalachian State East Carolina and UNCC. I believe the point of the legislation combined with the recommendation of ECU , is to offer a way for the state to let NC State and UNC travel to different conferences. However, they want to guarantee that they maintain at least one public university in the ACC. They do not control, Wake Forest and Duke, but it seems like they would be one of the last teams to leave the ACC. This would likely guarantee that the ACC headquarters remain in North Carolina.