歷史告訴大家，聯儲局減息之後 股市通常會大升？錯！錯！錯！邏輯上犯了一個嚴重錯誤

#聯儲局 #減息

[@vincenttang5267]

每次都有啟發性的資訊和分析，謝謝

[@jv-vl9im]

分析精湛、獨到、持平！

[@saml7449]

非常好的分析，不是結果主導過程，好持平

[@3cp790]

真 好多評論員 有結果再推論番個過程 自圓其說。

[@earth2088]

​@@3cp790絕對係，如果之後真係升又另一個講法了😂😂😂

[@kaixinzhang914]

分析精彩，多謝❤😊

[@earthalien2025]

一向客觀有邏輯，多謝呢集 好有用有前瞻性

[@chicheung9518]

U have a very kind ❤.Moments of truth😊

[@jljl6737]

解釋得好清楚，亦講中重點。最古惑人的不是謊言而是用事實的部分去解讀來誤導人

[@wlaw8803]

Thanks Good analysis

[@javaerhk]

其實好多macro都係Sample size 太細(搵1,2百年Data都係得幾十個data point),統計誤差大既問題

[@wongtinlok1]

Good point! I still think investors in the stock market is showing too much of optimistic.

[@billyho7495]

其實睇吓美股七雄走勢，大約預視會點......

[@chanjack7945]

寧可加債換通漲，也千萬不要減債換通縮，日本就係行左減債既路才衰落20年，直到安倍上台重推QE(安倍三支箭)好不容易花左十年直到近年日本經濟才有點起色。。。而中國正正係向減債道路走，即係行返日本舊路，所以我好肯定中國會走向最差既通縮之路，因為呢屆既大陸領導人係最志大才疏既，唔死都難

[@Pepper545]

❤

[@chingyeungsi.891]

其實唔冼自己想d資金自然會答你，8月5日，日本股災大跌1成當晚美股跳空大跌開市，但所有股票有大量資金抄底跟著唔冼講升到破頂，現在破左頂咪離場等跌，當回調後再跳空下跌，睇下資金係不停賣還是不停買，第2日再買都未遲，有資金不今買咪跟，如果第2日轉身不停賣咪跌穿第1日底部止損，你跟我這樣做長期操作輸錢返來搵我，

[@忠實粉絲-r5m]

分析洗腦害死人

[@wanggok]

好多人相信Ray Dalio的

[@chanjack7945]

​​@@wanggok Ray dalio係金融財經界最強洗腦大師，佢講好多野都好有道理，但其實係錯，尤其係講債務既理論，叫中國減債，好多大陸財金界既官員都信佢果套，估計主要係佢扮到好親中，但其實係害死中國，當年日本就係過度減債才陷入長期通縮，美國卻選擇QE才是正確，寧願加債換通漲，也不要減債換通縮，通縮才是經濟最極惡既敵人，係萬仗深淵，但宜家共產黨班高官都係導緊習大向減債既方向走，我都好肯定中國係會方向一條死路

[@katsai1499]

曰经上次42000點狂跌25百分之，今次輪到美股😂😂🎉

[@chanjack7945]

日經跌完25%，唔洗2個月宜家已經收窄到跌10%，唔洗一年隨時創新高

[@chanjack7945]

我次次都係諗住等美股跌25%就All in，但無一次做到，相反我同事每兩個月入一注，回報高過我捉timing，美股長升就係定律，定期買入係最穩陣策略

[@hoolala35]

FED錯太多次 好難信佢🤣🤣🤣

[@chanjack7945]

你以為佢錯，其實根本我地錯，聯儲局有幾個諾貝爾經濟得獎學家做顧問，係全世界最強經濟專家陣容，沒有之一，事實就係美股係世界最強，長期回報都係全世界最強，沒有之一，有時我地以為聯儲局錯，其實係受d垃圾扮專家既財經kol洗腦誤導，望返轉頭，發現聯儲局每次做出既決定都係最正確，最近兩次世界金融危機，2008年海嘯同2020年covid，聯儲局都做出精準既決定，令美國經濟係短短兩年內急速復甦，呢個係事實，你可以繼續唔信聯儲局，但睇住人地發達時，自己唔好問點解就得，唔好覺得心理不平衡就得

[@hoolala35]

@@chanjack7945 唔係喇，我唔同你講1970年代嗰次大錯 2021年Powel多次強調inflation係transitory，去到2022年先知出事

[@hoolala35]

@@chanjack7945 I’ve already retired when I was 55 and I’m about 65. So I do believe that I have experienced how many wrong decision they had made over last 40 years

[@chanjack7945]

@@hoolala35 所以我咪話表面係錯，但實際係正確，美國唔係遲左一年先加息，又點可以造成“過度通漲”而額外加息到5.25厘（如何過早加息通漲提早被壓抑，就未必可以加到5.25厘，咁樣就會減弱強化美元效果），從而將美元重新強化，產生虹吸效應，將世界既美元抽回美國呢？同時亦為將來美國遇到經濟危機時提供更多減息空間。。。呢樣係有地緣政治考慮，明就明，唔明都無計

[@hoolala35]

@@chanjack7945 你呢個係倒因為果謬誤

[@tsingyibridge]

只要分析越大聲。你就買佢對家就必勝

[@mitochondrial81]

其實有冇人諗過，hard landing 又好，soft landing 也罷，都喺 landing， 經濟都唔會好到哪裡去，咁FED 又話經濟“數據”好強， 又話 soft landing， 我好亂。。。 而我剩喺睇到啲大人物喺度狂賣股票，巴菲特同埋佢副手，黃仁勛，等等。。。

[@wanggok]

經濟越衰，股市越好

[@lawrenceheung7920]

It’s only your misconception. Not ours

[@mingfaicheng9429]

美股已超買也在泡沫顶！还㑹升幾升点，还是跌一万点看机㑹率吧！美元信用及债息是决定点！

[@wanggok]

美市是資金炒出來的，資金是印出來的，QE一出，股市狂升

[@高高高-h6q]

我不是聽不懂英語，只是難消化，做頻道你初心都是希望大眾化多些人看，多些人俾拉，多関注，是否有改善空間

[@alexchan4549]

Listen more times, then you can digest more easily.

[@vanyy2427]

I was a HK guy now is a Canadian. I worked in vary investment banks in my whole career. I and my local colleagues always mixed Cantonese & English in our social & formal speakings also in the meetings. I can say I have no issue at all, even talking with my Singaporean & Malaysian friends and colleagues. However, this guy using too many English words in his Cantonese channel, right? Also, most people will use English nouns & names & labels in our Cantonese, but this guy always use Eng on verbs and professional or special names. And his speaking pattern makes those Eng words sound not like in the same speaking, which like an alien codes added in his speaking. I wish he can use less Eng words and provide explanation/translation to the special terms & name for some audiences who are not good in English.

[@vanyy2427]

Fully agreed. I was a HK guy, now is a Canadian. I also feel not good listening his videos. I can tell that I was working in very International banks in my whole career life. I and my local colleagues always mix Cantonese & English in our social & formal speaking, also in the meetings. Well, the same with my Singaporean and Malaysian colleagues and friends. I believe most people will use Eng on nouns, names, labels, etc. but not on verbs and professional/special names. However, he used too much Eng in his Cantonese channel,. Also his speaking pattern makes those Eng words not a part in the speaking but sounds like alien codes. I wish he can use less so-called Eng words in his channel. When using Eng names, missions, projects, acts, reports, index, etc., please follow up with translation and explaination. Please note that not all Cantonese speaking people are good in English. Thanks

[@oscar02031987]

我都發現呢樣嘢，而且好耐，不過費事講，估唔到有人終於開口講。中英夾雜，我完全聽得明，只係覺得有時未免用得無謂無必要。一句話廿個字，Cantonese English 咁樣講：CCECEECCEECECECCCCE。其實講者係咪真係覺得咁樣表達一句話好恰當？我就寧願聽全英喇，而如果定位係畀Cantonese 聽，咁就顯然處理好有問題 專有名詞或只有英文能表達嘅用語句法，用英語無可厚非。但situation 情況、volatility 波幅，等呢類，有對等相應語彙，而且中比英音節更短，講者卻係要取英棄中，再慢條斯理師爺式般讀出四個音節，好似在教英文咁。其實真係可以改善囉

[@TH-ly2eh]

All in 美股不會死嫁 最多跌25%

[@wanggok]

美市是資金炒出來的，資金是印出來的，QE一出，股市狂升

[@chanjack7945]

係呀，坐多2年就返家鄉，坐5年翻一翻