Could an EV finally save you money? [ August 2023 ]

[@L2SFBC]

Comments on comments! 1. Error in the insurance = the EV insurance should have been $3805 total, (761x5), the $1125 delta is correct. 2. For EV Myths read this l2sfbc.com/electric-vehicle-realities/ 3. Why EVs can't tow long distances kzbin.info/www/bejne/rmq0ZIOBjL2hZ80

[@maxgood42]

The MG that you use as an example has 220v Power Output it is a Power Bank / Solar Gen on wheels, I think it is limited to 2600 watts ? ( Yes it can be used to rescue a flat Tesla ) and with the right setup some EV's can also be used as a Power Wall / Power Share type setup to reduce your power bill more ( off peak and so on ) also you can't get free petrol at the Library, So again these figures could lean to the EV more than the base figures outlinded here. Then after 10 years you may need to rebuild the ICE motor and or trans... and also maybe need a New Battery Pack for the EV. Oh and yes I realy like the ZE as cheap alternative to a Tesla And they do actualy hold their value well, eg; recent listings had 2020 ZE EV's with around 140k on it, was still going for $25 - $35 k

[@soulshinobi]

For tires I just would have kept it the same factory spec tires for both, we are using manufacturer service for maintenance after all.

[@kathyl67]

Great video. Thanks for taking the time to calculate these costs. At this stage I'd think twice about buying an EV but I'd definitely consider one once their prices were more affordable.

[@L2SFBC]

Glad it was helpful!

[@maxgermasi3302]

Jan 2007 “why would you want to buy an expensive iPhone???” Nowadays 8yo kids own a smartphone Embrace progress and development especially when you are just a drop in the ocean of world decision making😊

[@kathyl67]

@@maxgermasi3302 I'm all for new tech and progress, however I've always preferred to get on the bandwagon after prototypes have been tried and tested 🙂

[@keithhaycraft3765]

Yours is a very clear explanation. I was told recently by a woman who owns a Tesla that the money they save on fuel on a longer trip is negated by the extra food that she & her husband buy while waiting for her car to recharge. Whatever you do, don't get involved in a serious accident in an EV because it is very difficult to extinguish any fire which occurs on it.

[@MattBlack6]

No difficult. Impossible. Has to burn itself out.

[@andrewahern3730]

Spent EV batteries aren’t worthless. Power plants buy them up to connect to grid. Not to mention when you upgrade, you don’t have to go OEM (imagine if you used that for ICE maintenance costs), and you can upgrade the chemistry. There’s Leaf owners with radically upgraded range simply by buying a new battery.

[@L2SFBC]

Not only that two other points; EV batteries now last the lifetime of the vehicle, and can also be 100% recycled.

[@avid6186]

​@@L2SFBCwho can recycle ev batteries? Last time I looked (admittedly about 6 months ago) nobody in NZ actually did that I could find. Everyone's talking about it, but not actually doing it. The next question is how do you remove and transport an EV battery? Sounds simple, but once again is anyone actually doing it? Does your average car wrecker have a high voltage qualified technician on staff? Not that I'm aware of. Also how do they get on with dangerous goods transport regulations. I recently bought a battery grinder, had to be collected as it couldn't go on a courier, certainly can't go on a plane 😢 Nothing compared to a potentially dodgy, much larger EV battery. Nothing insurmountable in the above, but it does tend to get glossed over with statements like we will just recycle old ev batteries.

[@Qosmio1955]

@@avid6186 One of the strongest growth area for spent EV batteries is for households going off-grid. Used EV batteries are more than adequate as storage in that scenario. I will be doing that if my EV battery pack ever degrades to the point where they are no longer practical in the car. I keep my ear to the ground and at the moment getting hold of a used EV battery for such use is nigh on impossible, such is the demand.

[@tpv59]

THANK YOU Rob. WELL done. I APPRECIATE your work. Regards.

[@L2SFBC]

You are very welcome

[@MattBlack6]

Jeez this will be interesting. My early thoughts are that the petrol will be comfortably cheaper to own. But government incentives may tip the scale somewhat.

[@red_rocket.]

Awsome and balanced. Thank you. It has confirmed my opinion with good tech numbers. Of cause the purchase price should also be considered as an investment. The cost of borrowed funds should be considered as the extra purchase cost as one could invest the funds elsewhere. Another consideration should be the replacement of the the batteries as these are a consumable that a petrol vehicle doesn't have. The electric motor replacement I guess would compare to the replacement of a petrol engine?? Will the batteries last 200,000kms or 20 years. I doubt it. I think 10 years is a stretch. Of cause another consideration is the effective reduction of fuel efficiency of the batteries and petrol engine is another consideration. I think Li batteries loose more efficiency over time than an engine? My opinion is an EV around town to and from work or local shops could be a good thing. I think you said something like this. Other than this then evs are not in the race.

[@MattBlack6]

I'd love to know where you can get electricity at 20c/kWh. In the NSW Northern Rivers I'm struggling to get better than 30c.

[@joezephyr]

"FBT, trusts, investments" also apply to ICE cars.

[@L2SFBC]

They do, but at the moment FBT favours EV, and as EVs are more expensive those tools are more important.

[@joezephyr]

@@L2SFBC Perhaps, but with an ICE car it not zero. You sort of implied zero.

[@aron2199]

As an accountant, I will say keep the current car for as long as possible is going to be cheapest option. But if you are on the crust of changing car anyway- yes sure consider an EV ( especially if you are a 2 car family) … don’t forget the government says FBT exemption is going to be reviewed in mid 2027 (so 4 year benefit only) and plug in hybrid won’t even make it to FBT exemption from. April 24 ( next year)

[@L2SFBC]

And this is why I say talk to accountants like yourself! It's a very complex equation to work and many things may change in the future. Did you mean "is not" going to be renewed?

[@L2SFBC]

yes must have read the comment wrongly :-(

[@aron2199]

@@L2SFBC yes they say the whole FBT exemption is to be reviewed in mid 2027 - i think it could be dropped or reduced if it starting to cost government to much $$ and there is enough momentum in the EV market - dont forget PIHEV wont make it to the exemption list from April 25 ( except for people who has a existing novated lease before that time) So this incentive may not last forever - if you think you are changing cars anyway in 5 years anyway- the accounting equation either dont stack up or barely so for a lot of people.

[@Qosmio1955]

More or less backs up the decision making process I went through before opting for an EV. The key deciding factors for me were: .I have more than enough solar to charge my EV, so charging at home will be free .Every indication is that EV batteries are lasting longer than originally thought, well past the 8-year warranty in my case .When the batteries are no longer useful in the EV they will still be more than useful to add to my house batteries .I will be keeping the car for a very long time .I have 5 years of fixed-price servicing that is significantly cheaper than ICE prices .I place significant weighting on the "green" aspect of owning an EV and am prepared to pay to do my share when reducing my carbon footprint .With the lower centre of gravity , excellent toque and power, my EV is a joy to drive Lastly, Australian uptake of rooftop solar is nothing short of phenomenal. RE builds continue apace. I don't see a business model for electricity utilities where they can continue to gouge their customers, as the service-station industry does (and will continue to do so.) I believe that, at the very least, electricity prices will plateau and, once the coal fired power stations have shut down (and most are being decommissioned well before their originally planned dates) there is scope for electricity prices to fall. The trial of mini-grids in many States also looks promising. These alternatives to mainstream grid suppliers must eventually pressure utilities to compete more keenly if they want to retain market share. Conversely, much of the World's oil reserves are in geo-politically unstable places and must, by the very fact that they are not renewable, deplete over time. There is nothing to suggest that the heady days of $1.00 per litre will ever return and $2.00 or more will be the new normal. Oil companies have made an art-form of gouging over time and you can bet they will milk their last decade or so of supplying the World's vehicles for all they can. You could say that the last two paragraphs are nothing more than speculation, and you'd be right, but it is informed speculation. I'm retired now but I've had careers in the petroleum and electricity industries so I have a bit of an inside track on likely scenarios.

[@L2SFBC]

Thank you, a very informative post and I agree

[@robbyg3989]

Great video Robert! Might be difficult to hear for some, but facts are facts. Shmee150 had a video using Volvo's environmental study on the electric vs ice. It was called 'LCA report on XC40' I believe. The report was also quite interesting.

[@L2SFBC]

Yes, there have been many and they all say EVs are better overall for the environment after a 2-4 year period depending on usage, battery size etc.

[@robbyg3989]

@@L2SFBC I suggest one takes a look at the report. It's quite informative and surprising a major manufacturer would also be so honest.

[@L2SFBC]

Already read it :-)

[@johnmartin-sg7cv]

My problem is natural gas and electricity prices here in Victoria are going through the roof. Electricity was announced to be going up 25% recently. What does that do to the running costs of an EV. Also as someone the lives in the country, EV's are not going to be a viable option for a long time. If you do a lot of miles or tow anything it is just not an option. If you live in Melbourne's inner city I can see the benefits. If you are outer suburban I do not think the numbers would stack up. Would appreciate your thoughts.

[@L2SFBC]

Any electrcity price will increase the run costs of an EV directly, and indirectly, ICE. Absolutely EVs are no good for towing, I've done a lot of work on that, they're dramatically range-limited.

[@jonathanknight8251]

Numbers for depreciation in the UK are looking a lot worse for EVs; on the order of 2X in relative terms for a 3-yr-old car. If the purchase price is 2X, the difference in depreciation in absolute terms would be 4X. Ouch

[@L2SFBC]

Yes...the pro EV people are keen to say nobody wants ICE therefore EV resale will be high. I see their point, but there are significant counter-arguments not least how good will a 2028 EV be compared to a 2023 model?

[@Christoph1888]

I think your optimistic with your figures. $2 a litre is pricey for petrol and latest energy prices are over $0.30 kwh off peak & over $0.50 peak.

[@L2SFBC]

I'm allowing for some free charging. I might make a calculator for this so people can plug in their own numbers and see.

[@MiniLuv-1984]

Petrol is $2:10 here in Melbourne today.

[@Christoph1888]

@@MiniLuv-1984 that's steep. It's $1.70 here in Gippsland. Normally thought Melbourne was cheaper than regional.

[@L2SFBC]

Extremely variable day to day place to place.

[@MiniLuv-1984]

@@Christoph1888 Interesting. The Fossil Fuel Cartel plays games with us.

[@BlackhawkPilot]

You sure have high service costs in Australia. My US 2015 Mercedes BEV service is US $139 plus battery desiccant filer and a cabin filter every year or 10,000 miles.

[@MiniLuv-1984]

Thanks for that - like you said, its getting there but no cigar. One thing I noticed was an error with insurance costs; EV $4930, ICE $2992 - The difference is $1938 not $1125.

[@L2SFBC]

Ah sorry - the EV should have been $3805 the difference of $1125 is correct.

[@MiniLuv-1984]

@@L2SFBC It occurred to me to do the multiplication after I had already written the comment . :)

[@snells-window]

@@L2SFBC The ICE calculation should have been $3805 ( 761 x 5), but the difference is correct. Great breakdown and analysis though, lots of food for thought. Thanks

[@avid6186]

What was your reasoning behind an ev gets cheaper as you keep it longer? I was expecting the opposite due to increasing depreciation as the ev gets near end of battery life. At the opposite extreme being our second hand 70 series diesel landcruiser, sold about 10 years later with zero depreciation, wouldn't want the depreciation on a new one though 😀

[@L2SFBC]

The EVs run costs are lower than ICE. The ICE buy cost is higher. So, the more you drive, esp in cities, the better the EV looks financially. End of battery life is much less of an issue now than it used to be.

[@NoOne56488]

$0.20 /kWH yeah i don't think do, I wish power this was cheap in Australia...It's closer to 0.30 and will go up a bit more in the coming months.

[@videos1332]

we pay 15c/kwh off peak when we are home. most people arent charging during peak

[@Martin-5]

MG4 is AU$38,990 and BYD Dolphins is AU$38,890.

[@andylo4607]

Yep we know we will work our EV around 30,000km per year, so it was worth it for us to get it.

[@L2SFBC]

Which one did you get, and were was the break-even mileage for you?

[@andylo4607]

BYD Atto 3, I didn't worry about cost break down but in our case around 3 yrs to break even with all the qld and fed gov incentives.

[@angeloudy]

Not sure how long the battery would last. But replacing the battery is a big cost, $20000+, most likely will happen at 10th year.

[@ionQagon]

You forgot to mention the cost for batteries replacement on EV, which will be needed after 5 years. Example Tesla Model 3 battery replacement costs $16,550 and it may be more in future.

[@L2SFBC]

I didn't forget. Modern EV batteries do not need replacing after 5 years.

[@ionQagon]

@@L2SFBC Nice!

[@Christoph1888]

What do you say to skyrocketing Energy prices? As I understand it once you get to around $0.60 - 0.70c per kilowatt-hour you're at parity with petrol. I also saw a doco recently saying that if you've got predominantly coal-fired grid power then EVs produce similar emissions to petrol? I'm beginning to think EV's aren't the panacea they're made out to be and maybe we should be looking at things like biofuel?

[@L2SFBC]

Humanity has never relied upon one fuel source for transportation and I don't see that changing with the advent of EVs. Even 30 years ago we had diesel, petrol and electric in forms as humble as golf carts, milk floats etc. If electricity prices shoot up that will drive solar charging which will be blissfully unaffected. It will also increase the price of petrol and diesel as substantial amounts of electricity are used in both. A coal-fired EV is still better for the environment that petrol/diesel as the only pollution is from the coal plant which is typically away from populated centres. Whereas for petrol/diesel you have to find the petrol, transport it, refine it, transport it again, and then burn it...considering the whole lifecycle EV wins. More here -> l2sfbc.com/electric-vehicle-realities/ Thanks for your considered questions.

[@dtnicholls1]

Leaving alone the highly variable costs like petrol and electricity (unless you have a crystal ball?)... You'd probably also want to factor in financing costs. I doubt most people pay cash for their car, and the interest payment on nearly twice the capital cost is also going to add up pretty quickly.

[@L2SFBC]

Absolutely - but other than mentioning that say $23k could go on your mortgage, or increase payments I'm leaving the financials to the accountants!

[@dtnicholls1]

@@L2SFBC Quick look says that at 7% over 5 years the electric would cost you about $4400 more in interest and the monthly repayments would be around $935 vs $475 for the ICE.

[@L2SFBC]

Yes it's significant. Similar calcs for using the money to pay off a loan. However I assume most people would be across that which isn't EV specific so focusing on the things to consider. I am thinking of a follow up with an accountant to discuss financials.

[@jasonhowe1697]

you are charging an ev by the power grid vs petrol/diesel/avgas or other fuels with high reliance, of coal, nat gas, and nuclear for mains, with solar, water and becoming a personal option and short to long tern multi fuel gen how feasible is ev short medium and/or long term over a 3 phase 240-520 vac power system

[@L2SFBC]

l2sfbc.com/the-ev-charger-in-the-nullabor/

[@jasonhowe1697]

@@L2SFBC lol you prove my point

[@solarute5486]

And if you intend to charge an EV by your Solar like me - the breakeven is so much better again

[@L2SFBC]

Absolutely, would drop a significant $ out of it. But soooo many variables...

[@kadmow]

Yes, but your accountant now needs to assess opportunity cost of the solar + battery. I know, I am invested too (for ROI reasons vs other more risky investments), energy is not free, we are all undertaking an early generational experiment.

[@avid6186]

Unfortunately for many people the solar is at home while the car is at work during the day. You are presumably fortunate to have the car at home while the sun is shining.

[@brunoterlingen2203]

Robert you are a BRAVE man to come up with this: what does a replacement EV battery cost? The petrol industry has money to burn and will respond and drop their price - all calculation right out the window? How many EV qualified mechanics does Australia have? What is the total (beginning of build to end of life/disposal) cost between EV and ICE. Why are there acres of EV parked up near Paris in France, as they don't know what to do with the EV batteries? Robert, there are so many issues that also need to be taken into account - my hat off to you for even trying. By the way: my daughter has an EV and coming to our place from Brissy she has "range anxiety", and is already thinking about a hybrid, the fast charger in Warwick was out of action and the slow charger was slow.

[@L2SFBC]

The reality is that modern EV batteries don't need replacing over the life of the car. More here -> l2sfbc.com/electric-vehicle-realities/ All studies I've seen show that the EV has an initial higher environmental cost, but over the years - anywhere from 2 to 4 typically - it ends up with a lower impact than ICE.

[@johnphillips519]

Acres of EV's in france sounds like BS dont you know lithium batteries can and are being recycled into new ones.

[@kadmow]

@@L2SFBC - the sensible thing will be to buy a well looked after, still under warranty secondhand depreciated model. Let some other "soul" take the hit - ie the first, financed - owner will never see a financial benefit on many of the "popular" models.

[@avid6186]

​@@kadmowthat applies to any car, ev or ice

[@kadmow]

@@avid6186 indeed, the average private car owner does not buy new vehicles, (used is the value purchase.) - new purchases include : mainly executives, (lease) government and fleet buyers... (or tradies declaring the Mrs SUV as being FBT exempt...)

[@daveblock4061]

A few points: Keeping an EV 10+ years will be near the life expectancy of the battery so the vehicle could be nearly worthless greatly accelerating the depreciation. Also at that age as mentioned the tech will be obsolete making the vehicle much less desirable even if it has some life left. A lesser point is the EV will go through tires at a much greater rate due to the excessive weight. I believe the insurance numbers you gave are underestimated. Even minor accidents can 'total' an EV due to its complexity and insurance companies are adjusting their premiums accordingly.

[@L2SFBC]

A modern EV battery is not worthless after 10 years. It will still provide useful range, and even if not, the battery can be re-purposed out of a car or recycled. EV batteries now last much longer. EV tyre wear will be greater due to weight, but not "much greater". The insurance quotes are real from RACV; try them for yourself.

[@daveblock4061]

@@L2SFBC Your report is excellent, still: Batteries: "...the battery can be re-purposed...". While technically true they are not because it is not economically worthwhile. Only 5% are repurposed/recycled. California is buried under old EV batteries which is a huge environmental/fire risk. Tires: Still, it leaves your tire costs for EVs too low. Insurance: EV insurance is rising more relative to ICE vehicles. Thank you for the discourse.

[@andrewahern3730]

@@daveblock4061the batteries aren’t worthless and they are just laying around, attached to grid to stabilize. The only reason to worry about EV depreciation is because they’re often luxury cars. Mechanically, they age way better than ICE.

[@mwm1960]

He neglected the likely battery replacement cost for the EV. Petrol engines can reliably last much longer before replacement. Another consideration: with more demand for electricity the price will certainly increase much more than petrol due to the political restrictions on building hydrocarbon fueled powerplants. EV is a good long term plan but much longer to be economic feasible. Also relatively few drivers will afford the initial purchase price with current cost of living.

[@L2SFBC]

Batteries last a long, long time in modern EVs.

[@Qosmio1955]

I was intending to use my EV batteries in my off-grid home once they were too depleted for automobile use, but it seems that I might have to come up with a plan B because EV batteries are lasting so long that I might shuffle off my mortal coil before the batteries do.

[@84dezh]

Funny using the old ZS body shape when a good comparison would be the ZST base model And also comparing model features Lmfao and using the long range and making it cheaper by 10k

[@joezephyr]

The cost to install a charger in your garage is substantial, some thousands of dollars. Must be factored in.

[@L2SFBC]

That's the EVSE I mentioned.

[@joezephyr]

Those with home solar still have to buy electricity from time to time. It is more expensive than for those without solar. So an electric car has to be charged during the day and driven after dark. If you do not have home solar then you can charge a car after dark with off peak and drive it during the day. It is misleading to imagine that you can use home solar to charge a EV.

[@andrewahern3730]

I guess you’re unfamiliar with net metering and the fact you can change when the EV charges to when electricity is cheapest

[@joezephyr]

@@andrewahern3730 When you have solar on the house, the contract with the energy supplier does not have a "off peak electricity" clause. So there is no such thing as "electricity is cheapest"

[@greg174videos]

@@joezephyr We have solar on our home and have both peak and off peak rates. Our supplier is Lumo.

[@joezephyr]

@@greg174videos Not available in NSW

[@greg174videos]

@@joezephyr aha we are in Victoria.

[@Ted...youtubee]

My Victoria peak rates c/KWH Now 29.2c soon 49.3c Solar feed in Now 6.7c Soon 4.9c The electric future not do bright.

[@L2SFBC]

What's off-peak?

[@videos1332]

I think you really need your rates check. We just switched to Origin in Vic on Ausnet. 30c/kwh peak, 15.44c/kwh off peak.