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Lacy Hunt: Brace For A Credit Crunch + A "Serious" Recession

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Wealthion

Wealthion

Күн бұрын

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For a good while now, experts, including many of those appearing on this channel, have been warning about the "lag effect" of the aggressive interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening program conducted by the Federal Reserve and other major world central banks over the past year.
These experts have cautioned the speed & severity of these cooling measures would cause a sharp economic slowdown that could easily result in recession, deflation & a material correction in the financial markets.
But here mid-year in 2023, the economy is chugging along at 2%+ GDP growth, inflation remains at 3% and the S&P is up 18% YTD and the NASDAQ up a whopping 35%.
So where is the slowdown? Were those predicting one wrong?
They weren't wrong, says Dr. Lacy Hunt. Perhaps just a little early. But a credit crunch is now at hand that will indeed start freezing up the gears of the US economy.
To learn why, we have the great fortune to sit down with Dr. Hunt himself. Dr. Lacy Hunt is a former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
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#recession2023 #creditcrunch #marketcrash
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Пікірлер: 396
@Wealthion
@Wealthion Жыл бұрын
ACCESS LACY'S Q2 INVESTOR LETTER for free at wealthion.com/lacy. Some people are reporting issues with that link. If you're one of them, try this one instead wealthion.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/HIM2023Q2NP.pdf
@issenvan1050
@issenvan1050 Жыл бұрын
Access timestamps.
@Cristian_M_
@Cristian_M_ 10 ай бұрын
Building wealth involves developing good habits like regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments. Financial management is a crucial topic that most tend to shy away from, and ends up haunting them in the near future… I pray that anyone who is reading this will be successful in his or her life!!!
@zoeyswaniawski7306
@zoeyswaniawski7306 10 ай бұрын
I’m celebrating a $30k stock portfolio today. I started this journey with 6k. I have invested on time and also with the right terms now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me
@vickia.weaver7488
@vickia.weaver7488 10 ай бұрын
Wow, really. I was able to make my $25k on investment
@kelseyeadelmarr6109
@kelseyeadelmarr6109 10 ай бұрын
​@@zoeyswaniawski7306 I’m looking for something I can venture into on a short term basis, I have $15k sitting in my savings
@Brookeinda
@Brookeinda 10 ай бұрын
Assets that can make you rich *FX *Btcoin *Stocks *Gold *Real estate
@thylda7877
@thylda7877 10 ай бұрын
You’re right but a lot of people remain poor due to ignorance
@harryireland1935
@harryireland1935 Жыл бұрын
When Lacy Hunt speaks, one should listen. I'll be eagerly awaiting.
@hill2750
@hill2750 Жыл бұрын
Do you know what his view on the 10 and 20 yr Treasury bonds are? They are not looking good right now.
@joeblues2000
@joeblues2000 Жыл бұрын
E.F. Hutton
@oliviaralston1
@oliviaralston1 Жыл бұрын
Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance wealth, a great career, purpose is the result of hard work and hustle over time. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life❤
@thylda7877
@thylda7877 Жыл бұрын
The thing about been successful is working toward it and not going the other way round
@hamidu_-
@hamidu_- Жыл бұрын
You are right. Been thinking of going into gold and cyptocurrency
@zoeyswaniawski7306
@zoeyswaniawski7306 Жыл бұрын
It's obvious everyone is doing this online Investment
@kirstenraedmund7346
@kirstenraedmund7346 Жыл бұрын
​@@zoeyswaniawski7306I totally agree with you it has been an eye-opening experience for a lot of people
@eileengardner5462
@eileengardner5462 Жыл бұрын
Invstment is the key to achìēving success with the current pandēmic slowing down so many businesses aww
@EmilyAllan
@EmilyAllan Жыл бұрын
Lacy is a patriot and exactly on top of the real data. I love it. I wish there were more people than could explain complicated things in simple words. I aspire to be like him someday.
@littlebitmckee8234
@littlebitmckee8234 Жыл бұрын
FABULOUS guest. Would love to hear from him on a regular basis ❤❤❤
@paulah99
@paulah99 Жыл бұрын
Lots of juices to take away from this episode. ❤ Thank you, Adam for having Dr. Lacy Hunt!
@ceciliaferraro6360
@ceciliaferraro6360 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Adam for bringing lacy hunt on the show.
@KarlJonsson-dn7iw
@KarlJonsson-dn7iw Жыл бұрын
Lacy Hunt, a high ranking economist and a wonderful teacher for all of us.
@nohopeequalsnofear3242
@nohopeequalsnofear3242 Жыл бұрын
When Lacy talks, people stop and listen. No one is a higher authority than Lacy.
@lauramills6909
@lauramills6909 Жыл бұрын
Wow…I’m speechless. I’m new to deep diving in the finance world and this was the most informative video I have heard thus far in regards to where our market stands and what is to come. Thanks to Adam and Lacy. I’m still so blown away by the way Lacy explained the recession.
@SB-xm5uw
@SB-xm5uw Жыл бұрын
Very excited to hear what Lacy has to say. He's one of the most insightful guys out there, and he's done his homework, doesn't just come to talk with unsubstantiated claims.
@giomusah2155
@giomusah2155 Жыл бұрын
I wouldn't trust no guy named lacy
@SB-xm5uw
@SB-xm5uw Жыл бұрын
@@giomusah2155 and you would miss out
@ShamileII
@ShamileII Жыл бұрын
Omg, this has got to be one of the best interviews ever! To hear policy, effects and where we're headed from an insider is incredible! What a revelation of analysis and I was absolutely floored!
@massonh7476
@massonh7476 Жыл бұрын
Lacy Hunt … an absolute genius! EXTREMELY data driven! 👌
@thomaskelly6472
@thomaskelly6472 Жыл бұрын
Government doesn't want brilliant people like Lacy Hunt to be teaching us citizens how the economy works! Thanks Mr. Hunt for sharing your knowledge! Signed Dumbed down citizen.
@Infinite_P
@Infinite_P Жыл бұрын
What 2023 has taught me is that macro = a year or more out….not weeks or months
@calvinhancock7844
@calvinhancock7844 Жыл бұрын
A master that I can actually understand, thank you Lacy !
@raymond_luxury_yacht
@raymond_luxury_yacht Жыл бұрын
That's the sign of a master!
@justinmccarthy2195
@justinmccarthy2195 Жыл бұрын
Always a privilege to watch Dr, Hunt.
@mikesymth7243
@mikesymth7243 Жыл бұрын
One of the problems with low tax collection to date is that the IRS gave California residents, because of the floods from enormous rainfalls, until October to pay their 2022 income taxes and their 2023 1040es taxes. California, I believe, contributes 15-20% of the US total tax revenue.
@johnbirman5840
@johnbirman5840 Жыл бұрын
Adam, You’re timing as usual is impeccable. Thanks so much.
@ae304
@ae304 Жыл бұрын
Only thing I disagree with is around 54 min Mr hunt says that the government (FED) won't go back to policy that greatly harms working class people. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It printed money for the rich. The government subverted by capital owners AREN'T going to intentionally further their gains at the cost of working people? What world does he live in???? The rest of the analysis is very good
@davecohn6407
@davecohn6407 Жыл бұрын
It already has. The %of the middle class has dropped during the last 5 years
@UneducatedGeologist
@UneducatedGeologist Жыл бұрын
I'm guessing he doesn't want to bash the FED too much as his company could 86 him
@UneducatedGeologist
@UneducatedGeologist Жыл бұрын
@@davecohn6407 In 2019 I was making $55k and single and had a really good middle class standard of living. Rent $1200, car payment $300, gas $2, food $200 a month. After taxes I had an extra $1k fun money a month. Today I make $60k. Rent $2,000, car payment $500 (I need new car for multiple reasons), gas $5, food $400. I have zero money left over each month.
@robertmillar9279
@robertmillar9279 Жыл бұрын
An excellent video! Thank-you so much! I could listen to Dr. Hunt speak for hours on end and never tire of the information the he freely shares.
@karlbork6039
@karlbork6039 Жыл бұрын
Normally when the FED aggressively raises interest rates the government reduces spending. This time the government is spending even more.
@johnlaubenstein758
@johnlaubenstein758 Жыл бұрын
Lacy explains himself in such a simple but impactful way that is hard to argue against Pay attention
@johna5484
@johna5484 Жыл бұрын
@@HansSchickwhere can I find your work ?
@RWROW
@RWROW 11 ай бұрын
Always appreciate Lacy Hunt's concern for the impacts of economic policy on the poorer households. So rarely heard from economic experts.
@jasonfavrod2427
@jasonfavrod2427 Жыл бұрын
What a great guest and interview. Thank you for sharing the info and opinions!
@bannerlad01
@bannerlad01 Жыл бұрын
If instead of assuming that the people in charge care about the bottom 90% and in its place assume they operate for the interests of the top 10% then you can see why stocks will continue to increase, inflation won’t go away and real incomes will continue to decline
@UneducatedGeologist
@UneducatedGeologist Жыл бұрын
You Nailed It! I've been an economist for 40yrs and what you just stated I finally realized only in thr last decade.
@jasoncortez1238
@jasoncortez1238 Жыл бұрын
The man, the myth the legend. Looking forward to this one. 🤙
@rhena229
@rhena229 Жыл бұрын
I just came back from China this past Monday. Spent one month with my fam in Shanghai and two months traveling around the country. The economy is not in a good shape there. Everywhere I went I talked to taxi drivers, and they all told me their business is way less than it used to be. My overall impression is that folks in coastal cities and southern cities aren’t happy with Xi; they think Xi is too head strong against U.S. which is unecessary. They care less about nationalism and more about their own pockets. Whereas folks in inland cities and more rural areas are more for Xi, and think the current economic situations were partly caused by U.S. but they are willing to weather it. Just my observation from traveling around. I have no language barrier; therefore, I could communicate with people directly. I liked the infrastructures improvements, from the roads to bullet trains; however, I didn’t like the control placed on people, pretty much treating citizens like children, “Do what I say.” In addition, these days, going into Tiananmen squire requires online reservation a day in advance; also many parks and tourist sites require ID or passport for entrance. It is really safe to walk on the street in China, but it comes with hefty prices. And about spending money, not many merchants there accept visa these days; only WeChat, Alipay, or cash, which is inconvenient for foreign travelers. I don’t know what’s in the current Chinese leaders head. My intuition tells me, whatever they are doing is hurting China actually.
@Agooo13431
@Agooo13431 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for very interesting comment. I am surprised I am the only one replying. Personally, I am against communism, but I understand Xi's position. The US MIC has tried to "color-revolution" him out of power, and is actively preparing for a war with him, using Taiwan as bait. I wouldn't be any less "head strong" if I were in his shoes. The MIC people are murderers, unrestrained by morality or laws.
@SlobberySlob
@SlobberySlob Жыл бұрын
Don't you think xi is planning for war with Taiwan?
@secordpd
@secordpd Жыл бұрын
Could the difference in opinion of IX be the information they are receiving? Do rural areas not have more alternative news sources so they only hear state issued news?
@Agooo13431
@Agooo13431 Жыл бұрын
@@secordpd we in the US are among the least informed people on earth. It is evil genius, really. Nobody suspects it because we see so many sources of news, and on the surface they seem to differ, but in reality they are all saying the exact same thing. They all hide the same information
@rhena229
@rhena229 Жыл бұрын
@@secordpdthat’s probably the case. The coastal area trades with the west, and the south trades with Southeast Asia; therefore, more residents of these areas, especially in big cities, tend to have relatives living overseas.
@jamesTWisco
@jamesTWisco Жыл бұрын
This guy should be Fed chair
@Wealthion
@Wealthion Жыл бұрын
Lacy would absolutely have my vote
@pzipe2560
@pzipe2560 Жыл бұрын
Taking some notes ODL is On-Demand Liquidity and the velocity of money is a measurement of the rate at which consumers and businesses exchange money in an economy.
@kevinaudette9550
@kevinaudette9550 Жыл бұрын
Wow! Mr. Hunt is a bundle of economic knowledge, experience and wisdom. Folks would do well to pay close attention to his assessment of where we are today.
@themacroman
@themacroman Жыл бұрын
Great interview Adam. Lacy is a legend! Looking forward to part 2.
@DintlP
@DintlP Жыл бұрын
Lots of experts coming in this channel with bearish tone since last 1 year or more but market is almost touching all time high… so how this happen Adam can you explain? For the sake of your followers who lost tons of money
@toinengwyn3935
@toinengwyn3935 Жыл бұрын
This channel is primarily concerned about the real economy. The stock market has been detached from the real economy for a long time. Eventually, the gravity of the real economy exerts itself on the stock market -- when investor bullishness and irrational exuberance are at their highest.
@chemeng1977
@chemeng1977 Жыл бұрын
@@toinengwyn3935 nicely said, and to @DintlP, look at 2008 and imagine what the experts were saying in 2006. I made a nice amount on the 2008/09 crash, but it didn't happen by being impatient.
@RT-mn2pb
@RT-mn2pb 11 ай бұрын
Thanks for having Lacy on, he's one of the very few economist's whose honesty, experience, and insight I trust.
@serge4274
@serge4274 Жыл бұрын
Keep this man. His knowledge is priceless to us
@unbrnwsh
@unbrnwsh Жыл бұрын
If the money flowing into government sector is used to fund small businesses compete with oligopolies to produce & innovate essential goods then we can bring inflation down as inflation partly comes from greed (higher profits) of oligopolies. Also the money flowing into private sector can be negative if all the rewards go to the richest few only (as market bubbles) but not shared by the rest in society as it has been in the last few years.
@davecohn6407
@davecohn6407 Жыл бұрын
The % of wealth owned by the upper 1 , 1/10 and upper 1/100 of 1% is at all time highs
@nohopeequalsnofear3242
@nohopeequalsnofear3242 Жыл бұрын
I like how Lacy says " Our people" As in the American people. We need to think of Americans as our people.
@FamousInvestingQuotes
@FamousInvestingQuotes 11 ай бұрын
Dr Lacy Hunt is awesome.
@jamesedds5106
@jamesedds5106 Жыл бұрын
Mr. Hunt, is a smart man. I believe he understands , whats going on better than most of the talking heads.
@adamarakelian5666
@adamarakelian5666 Жыл бұрын
Had to watch it again now 8 days past. Lacy is so informed in his prognosis of market expectations and past happenings you can't get better understanding of helping your theory take shape thanks Adam hope you and your family have been feeling better after such a difficult loss. I have been there with my dad, Thank God my mom at 89 is going strong! Best wishes to You and your family during this difficult time.
@pietrovalsecchi1680
@pietrovalsecchi1680 Жыл бұрын
The bond market is definitely not pricing in a recession as we can see the yields on long term treasuries keep rising. How can we actually be sure that there's a recession in the cards? And even if there's going to be a recession, it'll probably be way down the line, not any time soon. Look at TLT that's been only dropping recently even when all sorts of claims are being made about the Fed being close to the end of their rate hike cycle!
@thomaskauser8978
@thomaskauser8978 Жыл бұрын
Walk down the street and ask a hundred homeless what they think and meet back here in 15 minutes!
@fhowland
@fhowland Жыл бұрын
When I see a new Lacy video I immediately watch it. No greater expert!
@joechan8549
@joechan8549 Жыл бұрын
Lacy is very impressive, when is Pomboy will appear, I miss her a lot, very beautiful and ultra smart with facts😇😇
@Wealthion
@Wealthion Жыл бұрын
Stephanie will be on the channel next week
@d.e.brenner2930
@d.e.brenner2930 Жыл бұрын
Great content Adam. Thank you Dr. Hunt.
@mattbopp6006
@mattbopp6006 Жыл бұрын
Clear data driven discussion with concrete examples. Fantastic interview
@KishoreDuddekunta
@KishoreDuddekunta Жыл бұрын
how is Lacy not on CNBC. ahh i guess he does not create drama headlines . so much to take away from this video session
@ZeSnoozeruser
@ZeSnoozeruser Жыл бұрын
Brilliant discussion from an outstanding scholar. I wish I knew what Dr Hunt thinks the future role of the Fed should be from eliminating the Fed to continuing the status quo.
@user-nt4gf6to5n
@user-nt4gf6to5n Жыл бұрын
Best show you have done all year 👍 Thank you 🙏
@SuperlativeElectric
@SuperlativeElectric Жыл бұрын
Dr. Lacy is like the Lil Wayne of economic data! 🎉❤He speaks and I listen intently, knowing every sentence has some sort of jewel in it. This man is full of hard facts and solid information. You’re the man, Doctor Lacy!❤❤
@SuperlativeElectric
@SuperlativeElectric Жыл бұрын
@@zorrosword123 He’s an American Icon. Get with the history.
@mattanderson6672
@mattanderson6672 Жыл бұрын
Brilliant interview with Lacey Hunt! Thank you for having him back!!
@micTesting-vz8hp
@micTesting-vz8hp Жыл бұрын
waiting for that dreaded recession and market bottom "unlike anything" from last 1.5 years.. still nowhere in sight 😵
@jcantonelli1
@jcantonelli1 Жыл бұрын
And it will remain elusive as long as everyone's still in their bunkers living off dry goods and fear.
@andyjax9215
@andyjax9215 Жыл бұрын
2025
@ropatitauiliili8825
@ropatitauiliili8825 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this interview
@rodhelms-yt2pk
@rodhelms-yt2pk Жыл бұрын
Let put our money in the bricks and use there banks and get our country back and clean out the crooks
@UneducatedGeologist
@UneducatedGeologist Жыл бұрын
You are correct America has been taken over by criminals
@ralphsimpson4593
@ralphsimpson4593 Жыл бұрын
His thesis makes a lot of sense especially considering the great retirement 40 year plus experience workers replaced by new workers and productivity will decline. What tends to happen line managers will hoard workers until the bean counters step in and rebalance with cost reduction worker layoff. This gives us the recession followed by a longer cycle of gradual productivity improvements .
@tomdonovan4842
@tomdonovan4842 Жыл бұрын
Excellent and knowledgeable Guest / great interview
@sweet-thin-crude
@sweet-thin-crude Жыл бұрын
Loves Dr. Lacy knowledge. Thanx
@Michaeldotcom33
@Michaeldotcom33 8 ай бұрын
Great great interview. Dude is smart! Learning a lot from him as someone who has a bachelors and masters in economics.
@spacewalktraveller1
@spacewalktraveller1 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the interview. I've been following Dr. Hunt for about 8 years. Personally, I think he is one of the best around when it comes to macro.
@SlobberySlob
@SlobberySlob Жыл бұрын
Except he missed the huge inflation instead calling for deflation ....not a great track record....
@spacewalktraveller1
@spacewalktraveller1 Жыл бұрын
@@SlobberySlob Yes, you are correct. Nobody in finance get everything correct. Dr Hunt is still better than most of the so called macro experts out there.
@papawhiskeybravo
@papawhiskeybravo Жыл бұрын
Hi Wealthion, Please check your link to Lacy's Q2 letter ... at the moment it's not working. Thanks.
@Wealthion
@Wealthion Жыл бұрын
Strange. Working on a fix now...
@BlackSwanCocktail
@BlackSwanCocktail Жыл бұрын
Lacy Hunt is the 🐐
@lngtimesurfer
@lngtimesurfer Жыл бұрын
So my only question regarding layoffs, is how do executives justify their outsized pay with respect to corporate margins? Should we not also see an inverse linear decline in executive pay that correlates to the rise in unemployment given ultimately the executives are responsible for the prosperity or poverty of their corporations?
@artemishumaan6984
@artemishumaan6984 Жыл бұрын
Our problem is we practice capitalism with low moral standards which eventually feed the primate instincts of greed and power that we have yet to shed after 1000’s of years. You can see it from top to bottom of society and not just the rich.
@Ecclesia.777
@Ecclesia.777 Жыл бұрын
CEO pay is often stock shares. Not actual profits
@mobilecivilian6124
@mobilecivilian6124 Жыл бұрын
Serious cliff hanger
@jimpugh6357
@jimpugh6357 Жыл бұрын
It is surreal that the markets keep pushing up with very shallow corrections The bear case is logical but I think there's a push to assist Biden along with an unprecedented support structure lineup
@thomaskauser8978
@thomaskauser8978 Жыл бұрын
Market thinks Fed is breathing their own popcorn farts!
@martinan22
@martinan22 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for a very interesting discussion. That, truth be told, went somewhat over my head :)
@sanjayma
@sanjayma Жыл бұрын
Mr. Hunt mentioned lower tax receipts. This year most Californians have until October to file and pay. Given the size of CA, what effect, if any, has that had on tax receipts so far this year?
@kimferzoco6755
@kimferzoco6755 Жыл бұрын
Great discussion. I’m a little confused, though, about the Fed’s role as the lender of last resort vs spender of last resort. I understand that the government spending in 2021 was paid for through the Fed’s bond purchases, making them the “spender of last resort.” I’m just a little confused about how the Fed was NOT a spender of last resort in the other years that we ran a government deficit as the Fed was doing QE.
@detectiveofmoneypolitics
@detectiveofmoneypolitics Жыл бұрын
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤
@yoderpaul
@yoderpaul Жыл бұрын
A lot of respect for guys like this that have been successful for decades but I think Jim Bianco might be onto something when he stated that all the models that worked in 2019 and before no longer work because we are in a new economy and everything is different. Perhaps that's why so many of these very smart people have been so deadly wrong the past couple years.
@thomashuang8401
@thomashuang8401 Жыл бұрын
I think even the rise of tiktok and the popularities of buy and hold etfs from creators there have made it harder for capitulation in order to get a real bear market I feel like
@ellau5850
@ellau5850 Жыл бұрын
Lacy is very good, impressive factual
@rob3bbb
@rob3bbb Жыл бұрын
Lacey agreed Fed’s assessment that inflation will be transitory. Why is inflation still here?
@bradatherton9369
@bradatherton9369 Жыл бұрын
Because 'things' are still not back to normal? Transitory is still valid. A number of supply chains are still out of whack.
@Ecclesia.777
@Ecclesia.777 Жыл бұрын
He is saying private GDP is affected when citizens invest in bank and fed 5% return instead of risky stock buys in private companies. Low GDP causes depression long term. 😢
@iorewp
@iorewp Жыл бұрын
Adam, another great interview with Dr. Hunt.....THANK YOU!
@edf10000
@edf10000 Жыл бұрын
Markets up literally every single day. While agree with what's being said I won't believe it until the market figures it out.
@thomaskauser8978
@thomaskauser8978 Жыл бұрын
Markets think Powell is spineless and day after day they are proven right?
@realbigugly
@realbigugly Жыл бұрын
Markets were literally down today.
@George-jm4rn
@George-jm4rn Жыл бұрын
Mr. Hunt is interesting and insightful, even when the market is going against him and his theoretical framework.
@jvolstad
@jvolstad Жыл бұрын
I'm debt-free and plan to stay that way.
@1ireneaustin
@1ireneaustin 11 ай бұрын
what about real estate? I know CRE is killed, it's over for CRE. But the residential sector I have been following all of the statistics of days of supply and PPI in that sector. It appears the supply has increased approx by a factor 3 but it looks as thought that number will need to double again before prices are in a meaningful correction
@michaelxu1589
@michaelxu1589 Жыл бұрын
Not sure I understand how deficit spending is going to hurt the economy in the near term. Even it could, it may take a long time before it does. Spending money that you don’t have only hurt if you need to pay it back in the near term. What if you inflate it away or delay paying back your debt by issuing long term debt; resources are not coming out of private sectors right now!
@RWROW
@RWROW Жыл бұрын
The devil is in the details and, as usual, Mr Hunt digs into the details as he's showing with his analysis of the auto industry,
@DarrenSmith-zz6fk
@DarrenSmith-zz6fk Жыл бұрын
Hi Adam and Lacey thanks for another great person on the show great content mfc
@theamazingmystico1243
@theamazingmystico1243 Жыл бұрын
The Fed should look up the term "pilot-induced oscillation."
@stevedavid6207
@stevedavid6207 Жыл бұрын
Really great informative interview 👏 and you asked some great questions.
@josephpolite3007
@josephpolite3007 Жыл бұрын
Adam this is great! Like going to economic school🧐
@dustinhartlyn
@dustinhartlyn Жыл бұрын
This is so good!
@OliveBranch.Homestead
@OliveBranch.Homestead Жыл бұрын
Holy God, men. just tell me what I need to know! Sadly, this is excruciating to listen to.
@frugalex-maineah6761
@frugalex-maineah6761 Жыл бұрын
By far my favorites YT channel.
@johnjordansailing
@johnjordansailing Жыл бұрын
How is government spending a "negative multiplier"?
@UneducatedGeologist
@UneducatedGeologist Жыл бұрын
Government has 2 purposes, one is to regulate and tax. So as Govt grows so does regulations and taxation. Neither grow the economy.
@dougbrun7789
@dougbrun7789 11 ай бұрын
County fair here had record attendance 😂
@moniequajohnson3094
@moniequajohnson3094 Жыл бұрын
No matter how high the interest rate or the inflation is, people will always be borrowing and spending. In fact, inflation fuels spending.
@RadicallyFRUGAL
@RadicallyFRUGAL Жыл бұрын
Dr Hunt. Over the 40 years as Fed Debt to GDP has increased and now Fed Interest Expense is growing exponentially, do you expect the Fiscal Multiplier Cycle to be moveed down and also temporally compressed? Doug Walden Asbury Park NJ
@RWROW
@RWROW Жыл бұрын
This discussion is highlighting the cruelty of U.S. government policy to the poorer people in our society especially when you remember that when the GNP was increasing by over 2% per year so little of that productivity growth was shared with ordinary Americans. The Republicans clearly don't care, but the Democrats aren't much better in fighting for ordinary Americans. Why are we tolerating such unfairness?
@jameslee-dp6cb
@jameslee-dp6cb Жыл бұрын
You can't blame on the FED. They had no choice but to get involved. They would rather not to have to. But look at housing prices going through the roof in the past three years. How many young people can't even get enough money saved up for a down payment before price hikes keeps pushing their goal away from them? Try to pay for an automobile these days on a minimum wage job.
@bmmoody
@bmmoody Жыл бұрын
Republicans care more then Dems do. The Dem policies are what create the inflation in the first place. Covid shutdown, trillions in stimulus spending, zero-percent inflation policies that go on for years. All left wing policies. The fed is just reacting to that reality. Bernanke, a left winger, was told, when you pump this stimulus into the economy it’ll mainly just make the rich richer and increase only a few jobs. He went ahead with it. What’s the effect? Making everyone on fixed income poorer and making the rich richer. He doesn’t care. The people that you think care, don’t.
@anniealexander9616
@anniealexander9616 Жыл бұрын
When Trump was president, I was working 60+ hours a week and could fill my gas tank for $30. Helping average Americans isn't about giving them a handout. It's about providing an environment where they can thrive.
@pendaranroberts4350
@pendaranroberts4350 Жыл бұрын
Years of bearish predictions from the guests on this channel while markets have gone up and up. Glad I was buying in last year when all the guests on this channel were warning of doom. Why don't you get some bulls on for a change so we can see what's really going on.
@David-yn7wl
@David-yn7wl Жыл бұрын
Markets always go up before hyperinflation
@vitalsigns6403
@vitalsigns6403 Жыл бұрын
I likeee The Lacy! However I would like to add to the “pig in python” analogy. Yes the pig is mostly thru the python. But, the python has now permanently gained weight: for ex: home prices still at record highs and holding, jobs market record low unemployment, inflation permanently embedded in gas, food, utilities, rent, everything you need for your kids, etc.🤷🏻‍♂️The python has grown bigger thru inflation. This is the plan🤡as this weak FED is not meaningfully fighting to quickly crush inflation. Thank you Jay “Transitory” Powell
@vitalsigns6403
@vitalsigns6403 Жыл бұрын
@@SR-ob3wn 100% spot on agree!
@raymond_luxury_yacht
@raymond_luxury_yacht Жыл бұрын
How are they funding it? Credit cards?
@claudinio89
@claudinio89 Жыл бұрын
The gov will subsidise and maybe do a debt jubilee to some households in debt by also sending new cheques If they would have wanted to let the ecpnomy crash they would have done it in 2020
@FreedomAtRisk
@FreedomAtRisk Жыл бұрын
Lacy Hunt is the man!
@Gabber44906
@Gabber44906 Жыл бұрын
How do we find the DATES of these videos? 5 days ago could be 2021 for all I know. Does anyone know?
@davidlauer6434
@davidlauer6434 Жыл бұрын
Is the current year deficit even more of a negative multiplier, because more of the deficit is going for interest payments, instead of infrastructure or projects?
@thomaskauser8978
@thomaskauser8978 Жыл бұрын
What is math when we add $500 billion a month?
@advocate1563
@advocate1563 Жыл бұрын
Such a gem of.a.gentleman.
@dannycalley7777
@dannycalley7777 Жыл бұрын
A 1563 ...............a matter of fact gentleman ............with the Knowledge !!!!!
@SunofYork
@SunofYork Жыл бұрын
How do you know ?
@peterreit8887
@peterreit8887 Жыл бұрын
Lacy Hunt is the MAN!!!
@patricktheut6120
@patricktheut6120 Жыл бұрын
the cycles are 7 year 9 year and 27 year and 54 year. so if you start with 2001 then the next speed bump was 2008. then the 9 year was 2010 (not as bad a 07 but not all that great). then 2015 followed by 2019. then followed by 2022 and 2028 - - - - 2028 is also the hit of the 27 year. the lag is 18 to 24 months. printing money made the depth of the sine wave far worse.
@MichaelHarrington17
@MichaelHarrington17 Жыл бұрын
What I hear is that everybody’s right, but it all depends on timing. The markets will have to align with fundamentals at some point. A recession will happen but the question is when and how much and how will the Fed and Treasury intervene.
@Reflect50
@Reflect50 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Adam and Dr Hunt for this valuable interview. Surpasses all the others in many ways !!!
@MattDouglas-hj9wh
@MattDouglas-hj9wh 11 ай бұрын
As a soon-to-be retiree, keeping my 401k on track after a bumpy 2022 is a high goal. I've read about investors generating up to $250k ROI in this present sinking market; any suggestions for increasing my ROI before retirement would be greatly appreciated.
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