When Do I Buy a Stock Exactly - the Way Warren Buffet Knows When to Buy a Stock

In this video we are going to look at when to buy a stock. The goal of the video is to present a reliable strategy for identifying when to buy a stock exactly. We walk through 3 examples based on previous videos I’ve done before and when would have been the best time to buy it.
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DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and we do not provide personalized investment advice. It is crucial that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments. Please consult your financial or tax professional prior to making an investment.
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[@LearntoInvest]

I also published a video on when to Sell a Stock if you're Interested: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fp6uZ3ukjsucgZY

[@indupathak6735]

Learn to Invest I am new to the market and to channel Thank you for your info Please create a video talk about Nokia and Erickson

[@alf001red]

Grate video about moment to buy, grate video about sell, but you didn't mention when to sell in terms of valuation + marging model, you just show how to filter a noise. So if you buy (entry price), then after some time fair value became far away from real (stock is megaovervaluated), so doesn't it mean that its time to sell? Could you clarify this point for newbie? Thank you

[@mayacho4910]

Nobody can become financially successful over night. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals.

[@theresagarcia1218]

I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value.

[@theresagarcia1218]

@@mariahhayes5089 Oh that sounds good but how do i reach out to PRISCILLA DIANE AIVAZIAN ?

[@theresagarcia1218]

@@mariahhayes5089 OKay i just found her website very impressive and dropped a message for her.,. i hope she reply's me.

[@Blitcliffe]

I find myself at a crossroads, uncertain whether to liquidate my $150,000 stock portfolio. I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current market.

[@MiddleclassAmerican-7220]

Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

[@MiddleclassAmerican-7220]

There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her

[@kastrooutlaw]

from all the investing ppl i watch, this guy has the best approach when it comes to investing

[@LearntoInvest]

I really appreciate the kind words!!! 😁

[@098anime]

this guy being the Warren Buffet guy? jk, I´m going to start watching the video haha

[@alfonsolopez775]

Ditto

[@kiradotee]

I was like daaaaamn, too much effort to calculate that for 30+ companies and keep it up to date all the time. BUUUUT what a reasonable and incredibly smart approach! I can see it bringing profits in.

[@EduardoTapia99]

agree... he knows what he's talking about while many others just speculate

[@TheBoBuilder]

"I'm a big fan of JP Morgan, at the right price"

[@samuellopes1254]

Hey Jimmy, These videos are a gold mine for people interested in investing the right way. I urge you to produce more of this type of content. Subscribed, obviously. Keep up the amazing work, and thank you.

[@backhing911]

This video is incredible!!! Less than a month after your analysis Disney went down to 104.22. As of now, if someone invested in Disney on that day they would be up close 32%.....Absolutely incredible :o With Apple someone could be up over 44% .... Just wow, honestly :o

[@javierg8192]

@Corey Lambrecht ...and now look at Disney!, :o

[@danguee1]

And look at Disney now! Trading at $109 in pre-market. Factor in inflation and that's a significant loss. Mind you, what do you say about a capitalist company that peddles communist ideology cos 'the kids like it'....?

[@jdub915]

If you are a long term investor does it really matter. They say most of the big spikes and dips come from just a handfull of days. Be very hard to wait on the side lines for potentially years if you are waiting for the "right time". I choose slight dips.

[@danguee1]

Yep - *_exactly_* right. I do the same - and trying to learn to do it better. I have a list - including existing stocks - of ones that are possible buys and possible sells. Sell the slight over-exuberance and buy the slight dip (Btw: the one I sold stays on the list if it's 'sound' - I might buy its next slight dip. Etc). It doesn't make me lots of capital growth. But I'd say that my new strategy is making me 1-2% more than my previous strategy (after costs, spread, tax etc). I just bought ASML at €820 in a dip off the trendline when it's been €930 fairly recently (of course, you had to do some proper research and be convinced it's market overreaction rather than fundamentals...)

[@ChungHanLau]

By far, one of the most underrated channels out there.

[@GregK235]

A series on different valuation methods and how to calculate fair value would be very useful. Also, what are the criteria for selecting a particular method for a specific company? Currently, I rely primarily on price ratios (P/E, P/AFFO, P/FCF), but set the target values low to get some margin of safety. Gaining additional tools always helps.

[@LearntoInvest]

When I create each video on different valuation technique, I'll be sure to stress where they are best applied. Thanks for the support!

[@beefcleavebeefcleave6449]

@@LearntoInvest one of the problems with the PE ratio is that it doesn't take into account company debt. That's why I personally have higher confidence in the EV/EBIT ratio. It works the same way as PE, but a company with higher debt will also show up more expensive compared to if you only used the PE value.

[@hongshi8251]

Smart Jimmy, This last dip in the market has spooked people and they have sold out with ridiculous losses. Regardless of your level of confidence or how bad things look, don't sell at a loss. Wait a year or 3 and see how your company does. I'd almost advise someone to look at stocks as a 5 year CD. If you sell it and lose all the interest what is the point? Why invest if you can't afford to stay in medium term of 5 to 10 years.

[@AmberDen5293]

I kid you not when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it, Investing is a long-term game, so I try to focus on the long term.

[@donalddavis4387]

I cannot focus on the long run when I should be retiring in 4years, you see l've got good companies in my portfolio and a good amount invested, but my profit has been stalling, does it mean this recession/ unstable market doesn't provide any calculated risk opportunities to make profit?

[@janellejacob3799]

There are a lot of strategies to make tongue wetting profit especially in a down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market expert

[@aarondaniels5525]

I completely agree, I have been consistent with my profit regardless of the market conditions, I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2020 this time with guidance from an investment adviser that was recommended by a popular economist on a popular forum, long story short, its been years now and I've gained over $850k following guidance from my investment adviser.

[@petar6053]

I like your style. Keep doing this, your videos are really good. Be detailed with your DCF analysis and maybe in future you can do dividend discount model.

[@LearntoInvest]

Thanks! And for sure the dividend discount model is on my list. Thanks for the support!!!!

[@nikosgkartsos896]

I cannot believe how valuable your videos are. You deserve millions s of subscribers. Great job!

[@georgehadley7863]

Great video. I notice on the Apple chart that after reaching your target price of $180 it continued down to as low as $140 before recovering to the current chart price of $205. Would you have stuck with Apple even though it traded 22% below your original target price? Be honest!

[@LearntoInvest]

That's a great question, typically I prefer a much longer time horizon that this. So what I like to do is to create an expected revenue or profit or free cash flow table for the next few years. Then once I get in the stock, I generally update my numbers on a quarterly basis to see how my projections compare to the reality. Hopefully, in the long run I would do much better than this..... But shorter term trades? Yes I would have been out the moment it hit 180,especially since it hit it relatively quickly. I would have grappled the profits and run

[@GodSEndOMG]

Another great video. Adobe, Comcast. Qualcomm, Honeywell International, Vmware inc and update on AMD after Q1 2019 earnings? 30.4.2019 after market close. Thanks :)

[@runningrabbit04]

👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏 Great review and great content. Keep it up and I'll keep watching!

[@Medyka100]

You Americans are really fortunate that you have all the opportunities to directly invest in those high quality stocks of global companies. I try to follow some of your advice, however, it's not easy to implement those great concepts into emerging markets (greetings from Poland!). Keep up the good work, Jimmy!

[@ismailgultekin9768]

Hello I also live in Poland, I never invested in Poland (Warsaw stock exchange) have you ever tried, is it trustworthy?

[@Medyka100]

@@ismailgultekin9768 Hi, I think the Polish market might be tricky for foreigners as there are many info to be taken into account that are available only in Polish language. Some stocks are strongly correleted with polotics which isnt easy to follow. It is an emerging market so you get more volatility, price changes tend to be more rapid and sharp than in the US, I think. In general there are a couple of high quality stocks- see for instance KGHM, banks, gamedev and others. I got a very good returns last year but ot was mostly due to covid so we'll seehow it goes this year. Hope you enjoy Poland. Cheers!

[@rodcarmar]

Hi Jimmy! Greetings from Brazil. Keep the good work.

[@momotarow]

Grate video! Not holding back any information. Way more people should be watching this channel, so I will share with my friends!

[@AlexanderDiArmani]

What I don't understand is what method to use. How do you decide? I was under impression that if a company pays Dividend than you do DDF and if not then we do DCF...

[@StickJockeyFPV]

Your videos are becoming my favorite for learning how to invest, Jimmy. I would be interested to see how the 3 different approaches come out for the same company and hearing your thoughts on why they might be different or why one might be better than the other. Thanks!

[@InvestingRobinhoodInvestor]

Great video Jimmy! Very helpful to see your approach on when to enter a position

[@andrewnitzschke5998]

When talking about margin of safety I think a big factor (for me at least) is what is my projected duration of holding said stock and what percentage of my portfolio and/or individual sector it covers. So if i'm looking at a company that has had contentious growth and maybe a decent dividend or historical low volatility during a recession and plan on keeping it for 10 or 20 years then a 5-10% margin of safety is well justified IMO. Personally if I love a stock and its a good buy then im comfortable with 10-15%.

[@LearntoInvest]

Sounds like a logical plan!

[@TheSPEEZY99]

Yes this way. But honestly just read news articles about the stock your looking into and check the history at least as far as back to a year of when your watching it. Also get a good app like Wall Street journal or something where you can check the chart analytics there you can see with your eyes the future growth on earnings and revenue. And check their debts and assets and liabilities. If you like what you see and feel it in your gut then it’s time! But do your research because it’s easy to buy into companies that will underperform in the future that’s why most people say new investors lose money. But if you take the time to read lots or articles and check the cart analysis you’ll be good.

[@thumperjr100]

Another great video, thank you for your hard work. Keep 'em com'n😊

[@LearntoInvest]

Thanks for the support!!!

[@ChilapaOfTheAmazons]

This is snake oil. If you buy anything at all at the end of 2018 by now you would have made lots of money. On the other hand your method doesn't work at all 99% of the times because very rarely stocks crash by 15% unless the entire market is down (in which case the per-stock analysis is pointless, everything will go back up) or something went very wront with the company (in which case your old analysis should not be relied upon).

[@russomaster]

Thanks

[@b.a.s.h.33]

Wow Jimmy. Thank you so much for your channel. Learning a lot from you. Can't wait for the series. Still haven't jumped into the stock market because I'm still learning. Appreciate everything you do. Have a good day.

[@LearntoInvest]

Thanks for the support and I'm glad you like the channel!!!! 😁

[@joepistone8922]

How do you decide with valuation method for which stock works best?

[@alexandrecalixto7614]

Great content Jimmy, keep doing your great work. i would like to know how a foreigner, like me, can start invest on USA or Canada Market. Where do i start? Im from brazil, by the way.

[@rajuahmed3011]

Really good work. Thanks

[@LearntoInvest]

Thanks!

[@philipprichardt8057]

My MOS is 50%. It requires a lot of patience.

[@rogersfamily2816]

I have spent a few hours pausing your vids, taking notes, and rewinding. I am new to investing but your channel gives people an edge if they care to put in the work. Keep it coming Jimmy. ("Hi, I'm Jimmy") I have heard countless times in my research LOL.

[@sergioterrazas97]

Love your videos. Great job Jimmy!

[@Kenwood..]

Show me your hands! Show me your hands!

[@LearntoInvest]

Lol

[@armanjhasanyan467]

Yes! Thank you so much for considering doing vidoes on Fair Value. I have been looking for good videos/literature on this topic, but I have not had good luck. Also, do you have any recommendations on easy books to understand for evaluating/setting fair values on stocks?

[@rafaelneto7002]

Thank you Jimmy!! Perfect video also for whom are not 100% english fluent.

[@LearntoInvest]

Thanks!! 😁

[@jjramos46]

I always seem to miss. I hope to learn alot. Thanks for putting out the videos

[@basti1993x]

Really looking forward to the table, great work!

[@craigbuckley7603]

Wow why must have been taught by the same person on JPMorgan I was thinking 112 bought it when the market crash last year around 96 been holding since

[@animevideos7278]

How did you calculate margin of safety ?

[@LearntoInvest]

It's actually a preference thing. The ones I used in the video are popular and they are my favorites. But its simply a number you select, generally based on your level of confidence. If your not sure where to start, maybe 25% is a logical one to choose, then you can adjust as you do more and more research. But that's just my opinion

[@vyacheslavgolikalg]

I really enjoy how you present any topic. As much objective as possible!

[@SantaBarbaraAlberto]

Jimmy do Tesla.....

[@noizzee733]

I just found your channel, and boy am i glad i did. You explain things so good and clear. I'm from Europe but if i want to know analysis about American companies, this is the place to be. Keep up the good work!

[@jaxxbrat2634]

Yeah we gonna learn Buffett's technic on yutub

[@edos3783]

Dude, you're an angel.

[@STEPXMoney]

Most of the stocks I buy I plan on keeping forever, so unless I feel the price is way too expensive, I buy.

[@ixmooves2261]

I'm new to investing so my question will sound stupid. I've read a book "random walk down wall street" and vids like this... and honestly I still don't get it when people say they wanna keep a stock forever and I hear it often. Is that just an exaggerated expression which actually means long term? I mean, how do you make money if you don't sell at some point?

[@STEPXMoney]

@@ixmooves2261 Some stocks regularly pay you money just for owning it. So you don't actually have to sell it to make a profit. They're called dividends.

[@reenupanday2553]

Jimmy, you are doing a great job. Thank you so much! I just watched the movie 'The Big Short' and was keen to see what stocks Dr. Michael Burry has in his portfolio now... So, quick look at the most recent filing:These are the top five holdings: Core Point Lodging, Alexander and Baldwin, Five Point, Tailored Brands and Disney. Apart from Disney, what are your thoughts on the other 4? Thanks!

[@sanjaynarayan4400]

Love your work

[@he5354]

Thank you for the best youtube investment channel in history! A question, how did you use the forward P/E ratio to determine the fair value?

[@DiegoEsteban1910]

Good video from Casey Affleck.

[@jamesrobertjackson]

Great content. Keep it up. You should have more subs.

[@rodcarmar]

Hi Jimmy! Greetings from Brazil. Keep the good work.

[@borosouro3737]

Thank you Jimmy

[@LearntoInvest]

What is your personal margin of safety? I've gone as low as 10% and as high as 45% depending on my confidence level. How about you?

[@LearntoInvest]

I like it! Which stock was it?

[@LearntoInvest]

Thanks so much!!! 🙂

[@Paperthrowercjm]

I've never thought of it as a level of personal safety. I appreciate the insightful videos. They are very informative and help me expand my investing skills.

[@LearntoInvest]

That's the way I've looked at it.... I figure if we were 100% certain about an investment and we were fully informed about everything about that investment (we wouldn't be, but let's pretend) well then I would probably be willing to pay fair value for the stock. Then when the company grew exactly according to my forecasts, well the stock would move higher and the investment would do well. But in reality, I figure that the less confident we are, well we need to account for that by getting better 'deals'. And since our confidence is very much influenced by our own risk profiles, well to me it makes sense that we each recognize how our own risk profiles play into our decision making process.

[@Ebutuoy1199]

Awesome video. Please do more like this. Subscribed and liked

[@tomoconnor9164]

Thank you Jimmy so much! I am a new investor and have been following all of your videos, you have taught me so much, your method of explanation is so right on target! Thank you again Jimmy, I will let all of my friends and family know about you also! Keep the videos coming!!

[@tomoconnor9164]

New to the market, How can the Market not reflect what is currently happening with unemployment, foreclosures, auto loans defaulting... ? I do not get it? Is it because the Fed is dumping trillions into an eventual abyss? Please help me understand! Thank you everyone, be safe and protect you and your families.

[@alvanmo5269]

Hi Jimmy, could you tell us when to apply the abovementioned three methods? Are they similar and universally applicable? Thank you so much!

[@ingridgarcia3543]

Excellents videos !!! They are between my favorites. It's a very good explanation!

[@saeedsaado4387]

You are amazing ..Thanks a lot

[@heavyblackbull]

Jimmy! I love your videos! I really do! I watch every single video you upload because you give us some really valuable information! just one thing! it would be awesome if you could improve your sound quality! I know is not the most important thing, but I would personally appreciate it! Greetings and thank you for this great content!

[@junfan11]

AWESOME Jim!!! AWESOME 👏 🔥🔥🔥

[@LearntoInvest]

😁

[@amitanand5624]

Excellent analysis Jimmy, would you mind analyzing Tesla?

[@abiawasthi7838]

hi jimmy, u do grt work. i am keen to learn so much with you

[@LearntoInvest]

Thank you! I'm glad you like it!!! 😀

[@georgydyachkov8033]

Hi Jimmy! How do you come up with the fair value of stock if the company has negative EPS (ttm) and the company has a really great potential for growth? For example Tesla stock? I valued Tesla stock and come up with idea that the company is around x2,5 overvalued but I think that even the price the company has now is low in Long Run period. Can you make a video on that? Or help with you advice? Beforehand thank you)

[@LearntoInvest]

Hi, so I actually did a video on Tesla a few months back and I used EV to EBITDA, and I did another video with a forward PE to come up with a fair value. The tricky part to a stock like Tesla is trying to justify the current price with a fair valuation. Personally I think Tesla is trading mostly on potential right now. I'll try to do a video on this topic soon 🙂

[@georgydyachkov8033]

@@LearntoInvest , thank you for your answer! That would be great if you make a video on this topic)

[@mrorbit2u]

Hey Jimmy, Thanks for the easy to understand video.

[@SergiMedina]

But wouldn't be better to just buy the stock now, if you really want it, especially for long-term dividend investing? By waiting that much you wouldn't earn that profit that you would've earned if buying it right away...

[@snakeonia7542]

When to buy a stock. A year or 2 ago more times than not

[@LearntoInvest]

Lol, that's a fair point.

[@edtsech]

Doesn’t mater what kind of drugs you take.. you are pretty damn smart!

[@NovaIsBored]

Hi, first of all thanks for the video very informative. But when you refer to net borrowings is that the same as proceeds from borrowings?

[@LearntoInvest]

Net borrowings can be calculated by subtracting cash from total debt. Usually proceeds from borrowing is just referring to the borrowing side of it 🙂 I hope that explains it better 🙂

[@kamalnathkanthimathinathan1473]

Great video. Thanks...

[@jagulba]

Wow dude you are a great teacher.... thanks for the hard work mate

[@carlosmonte9597]

Hello Jimmy

[@LearntoInvest]

Hi :)

[@Mizzie888]

Love your videos Jimmy. 💕

[@JaeTask]

Great video Jimmy, thanks

[@depen8870]

Great video Jimmy love your way of teaching!

[@t1natran]

I liked this retrospective review

[@jorgelopez4240]

Starting my list now!

[@frederickbouari2625]

sick video

[@VietPho]

what price to buy disney at today?

[@LearntoInvest]

It's about $140 today

[@VietPho]

@@LearntoInvest what price would be a good buy?

[@jasonmarino5509]

When to sell a stock would be a great video

[@divad6202]

3:19 As of the 26-08-2020, AAPL currently sits at 500$/share (low confidence), JPM sits at 99$/share (mid confidence) and DIS sits at 129$/share (high confidence). It's not a critic in any way. I just find this funny lol!

[@rhythmandacoustics]

My margin of safety depends on the industry. Oligopolies for example I give in more, such as telecom and semiconductors. For consumer producers I require a higher margin of safety. Some industries I never buy such as restaurant chains and fashion/clothing.

[@kylegurleyen2400]

Thank you once again for an amazing video Jimmy

[@ImBeneficial]

Why did I just find out about this guy? I will be adding some of your valuation methods to my toolbox also! You're awesome and great at explaining! I think a 15-20% margin is more then enough safety cushion after calculations. And with that being said, I just bought a nice position in Intel stock @$59.33 with your valuation methods and feel confident about it and the safety margin! *opinion from a noob investor* Thank you!

[@kylebyrd6369]

Great video. I love your content so definitely keep it going. Question: what discount rate do you use for your DCF? Is it always WCC or do you use a rate that's based on what you hope to achieve?

[@kiyaheza7485]

I really appreciate this man

[@dh2266]

How do you determine the fair value? And as soon as I hit enter, you said you'd make a video for it. I'll start hunting.

[@neocruise2003]

The content is really good.. But to be frank.. to keep reading all press release or earnings and keep updating DCF numbers, and that too for atleast 20 to 30 companies.. i mean it's like 1 man mutual fund... It's a lot of work.. and also.. probability to beat general market is going to be low.. I feel like giving money to mutual funds n let the expert do the hard work....

[@sheanathan3566]

Timeless

[@ben10mama]

I'd personally have a much smaller margin of safety. I feel a 15-25% is way too high and you lose out on more time in the market. For me if I feel very good about a stock I'll do only 2.5% if I'm fairly certain 5% and if I feel uncertain or the stock price is volatile then 10-15%. Time in the market beats timing the market every time and I don't want to lose a year or six months of growth in my opinion

[@Linda-bj3bb]

I am I understanding correctly (I'm a novice)that we should basically wait until a good quality stock is on sale and then buy it. If so I can do that......been doing that when I shop for anything I need all my life. I'm frugal/ cheap.

[@jonbaietto3888]

I'd love to see the table you have created after you completed the Dow 30 analysis. Do you have a link to that somewhere or is it still in the works?

[@Rollyoursleeves]

Did apple ever Reach 240$? It’s now $156

[@gmo709]

It's a great video. It makes sense and cents. Takes work, takes patience and discipline. So it explains when to enter. How ab when to eventually exit? Like if there are better investments elsewhere or if growth begins to slow or the company starts paying too much in stock based compensation. How often do u want to be determining fair value? Is a great company always going to be great forever?

[@sarahbates8228]

The literally only person that I could understand what they’re talking about!!!

[@camilosad1979]

Great content as always!

[@LearntoInvest]

Thanks! 😁

[@rhythmandacoustics]

Kinda similar I guess. I first look at oligopolies or monopolies. If there are more than 10 competitors then I look at P/E and Book value. Even if they are duopolies I still look at the P/E ratio and other fundamentals such equity growth per year. I also look at the economic trends. The interesting thing to watch right now is the stocks that are dying because of covid. Boeing for instance looks like a great deal if we know that they will get bailed out. The cruise industry appears to be a deal if we know that people will immediately start going to cruises after the lockdown.

[@armandomiranda1455]

I currently use a platform called thinkorswim to do trading. The platform has a feature to write in code your own analysis, And filter companies that fit that criteria. Have you ever thought about building the code on thinkorswim and selling it.

[@joepistone8922]

Brilliant