Do Stocks Go Up.. When Interest Rates Fall?

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[@user-me3in6vy2q]

Here’s what happens to the market peak to bottom in the short term when the fed pivot : 1981 fed pivot -27% 2000 fed pivot -51% 2007 fed pivot -58% 2019 fed pivot -35% Of course most cases the market recovered after the pivot, but during the rate cuts the market tanked fast and hard in a short period of time

[@Nayr747]

Don't forget 1970. That took 16 years to recover.

[@k4ir0s]

He literally went over this in his video. 2000,2007, and 2019 and anomalies due to an emergency situation. If you look at the other time periods, it's overall green. I know that's not what you like to hear, bear, so kindly ignore me.

[@Nayr747]

@@k4ir0s If you look at the Fed funds rate during those older time periods it's subjective when the cuts began so you can make the data say whatever you want. The fact is in general the market crashes soon after cuts begin.

[@Nayr747]

@@k4ir0s The reason is obvious. The Fed cuts rates because they're trying to stop the economy from crashing which is pretty much inevitable after keeping rates high. The entire purpose of raising rates is to slow the economy.

[@Nayr747]

@@k4ir0s The reason is obvious. The Fed cuts rates because they're trying to stop the economy from crashing which is pretty much inevitable after keeping rates high. The entire purpose of raising rates is to slow the economy.

[@Sammyd67]

I don't agree for 2 reasons. First, the stock market is already overpriced, which wasn't the case for the past periods. And second, the decrease in interest rate is already priced in the stock market,

[@LearntoInvest]

Interestingly I agree about the stock market being overvalued. In fact my video right before this one was on that very topic and i came to the same conclusion. I probably should have done a better job of explaining the intention of this video. I was hoping to present the history and see if we could draw some conclusions for today’s market. So it will be interesting to see what happens going forward. I still believe that finding good value stocks (as tough as that is in an overpriced market) and holding them for the long run is the best move.

[@Sammyd67]

@@LearntoInvest thanks for answer

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[@Dman9377]

It could go up or it could go down, depends on what data you use. The growth rates and the rate of return seem to matter the most. The economy status during the cut is why it goes up or down. I think the market priced in the cuts already. Its just smaller rates of returns going fwd now. It matters what you pay.

[@xzx3]

So glad you are back Jimmy. Always love your analysis. Interests me to look more into it.

[@LearntoInvest]

It’s good to be back ❤ 👍

[@Nayr747]

This is a pretty deceptive video. After the first interest rate cut in Nov 2000 the market plunged another 42%. After the first cut in June 2007 the market fell 55%.

[@Nayr747]

Also down 23% after the first cut in July 2019.

[@Nayr747]

And after the cuts starting around Feb 1970 it took the market *16 years* to recover. That's _over a decade_ of negative real returns.

[@LearntoInvest]

This is true on a short term basis. In hindsight I probably should have showed the stock markets performance for each time period so we could see the full swings, not just the final return after X time period. I was thinking more longer term, it I agree with what your saying on a shorter term basis.

[@LearntoInvest]

I apologize if it seemed deceptive, that wasn’t my intention at all!!! I just tend to think of things from a longer term perspective, I didn’t give too much thought to the immediate reaction of the market.

[@Nayr747]

@@LearntoInvest Gotcha. I didn't mean for that to come off so rude. But as to the numbers, since 1957 the average drop after the first cut is 26%. The average market high is 3.7 months before the cut. The average low is 15 months after.

[@sorincostache7072]

Very nice video, Jimmy! I really enjoyed the subject and the explination

[@LearntoInvest]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@michaelblank4643]

Thank you for this video. Somehow it seems pointless without the comparison to markets one year after raising interests. Do you think you could add this?

[@LearntoInvest]

I believe we had the comparison to one year past interest rates. It should be right towards the end of the video

[@michaelblank4643]

Yes, you made the comparison to sinking interest rates. I’d like to see the same comparison with raising interest rates.

[@LearntoInvest]

@@michaelblank4643this is a great idea! I’ll add that to my video list. I appreciate the feedback 👍😀

[@josephlombardo1267]

Interesting analysis separating emergency drops versus economic cycle drops. I'm just a bit worried about the concept of individualized required rate of return. Shouldn't investors estimate Rm in a non-individualized way? Otherwise, one could decide to go for 15% returns, end up with a bunch of distressed underpriced companies the majority of which will perform poorly thus never getting their "required" 15%.

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[@ShamileII]

Great analysis Jimmy! Thanks

[@JensenDK110]

Its a fact that if interest rate go up stocks go down. We just have to look at the extreme conditions. 20% interest rate then pepole will buy bonds and not stocks.

[@LearntoInvest]

Exactly! Well said!!! 👍

[@Kingfisher62]

Jimmy, could you comment on stimulus money handed out, would that not skew the issue ?

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[@mohamadsaleh779]

The real question is, will the market tank even for a short time so we can buy more shares with the same money? I guess no one knows

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Market makers always play games with retail. Be ready to strike because there will be a lot of fear during this time.

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[@Nayr747]

If you look at the data yes it will tank by as much as 55% and for as long as 16 years. The way he presents the data is deceptive.

[@Nayr747]

After the first rate cuts here's the numbers. Feb 1970: 16 years to recover Nov 2000: -42% June 2007: -55% July 2019: -23%

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[@ikiruyamamoto1050]

Meh. Some pretty specious analysis. You fail to define the difference between the Fed trying to control an economic decline and an "emergency." Covid and the Great Recession were emergencies (e.g. like heart attacks to the financial system)....THAT'S IT! Also, to make this useful, perhaps you should compare the market reaction in other circumstances (e.g. to see if the increases would have been superior, thus defeating your premise). (BTW, why didn't you go back to the 50's?) Anyway, it ALWAYS depends on the circumstances, the reason for the interest rate move and the speed...and the reaction. Volker & Reagan in the 80's made a systemic change that controlled the problems and unleashed the market. The Covid example is the most specious, because the market soared as a consequence of unprecedented gov. handouts (2 trillion+). When you put massive amounts of money into an economic system, asset prices go up...but it's totally artificial. In any event, I believe the accepted wisdom is investing in the Market consistently (thru good and bad times) beats trying to "time the market" (for the average Joe).

[@InvestingMadeSimple]

What are you talking about? He literally defined the exact emergency cuts you just described as emergency rate cuts and multiple times he added their exact names to the graphs. Did you write up this whole comment without even watching the video ???? Real suspicious to call someone out on something for not explaining the exact thing they just explained. That was literally the conclusion of the video

[@ikiruyamamoto1050]

@@InvestingMadeSimple Completely wrong. I think you have a problem with listening and reading comprehension. At NO POINT does he DEFINE the term "emergency". He just SAYS x, y, z, were emergencies, but (by exclusion) a, b, c, were not "emergencies." Well, sell me don't TELL me. According to his cherry picking, banana republic inflation (11-13%) and interest rates (12-20%) aren't "emergency triggers" for Fed lowering rates. That's bizarre.

[@Nayr747]

​@@InvestingMadeSimple The part he didn't mention is that every time the Fed has started cutting the market has dropped. You can pick a time period that it will have recovered but it always drops.

[@LearntoInvest]

I should have done a better job of defining emergency. I actually didn’t come up with that term for those drops, I took it from the fed statements. When they defined it as emergency or absolutely necessary or they dropped the interest rates between meetings, those are what I defined as emergency. But you’re 100% correct about the reasoning behind the growth (stimulus +++) certainly played a role. I was just trying to present the information to give people an idea of how things have played out in the past. Then I was thinking we could use that information to help inform our decisions going forward

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