Elon Musk: Self-driving is way harder than I thought | Lex Fridman Podcast Clips

[@LexClips]

Thanks for watching this clip. Full podcast with Elon Musk and Lex Fridman is here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/eqm1dqBpqJammaM

[@johnstrawb3521]

@Lex Clips It's difficult to believe Musk was so foolish about this. Did he really not sit down of an evening and scratch out on a couple of whiteboards the computing power and speed necessary for a self-driving vehicle---the number of bits and flops that would have to be crunched? I did that of an hour at the old Baseball Think Factory in 2008 and it was easy to see it wouldn't be remotely possible on a significant scale prior to 2020.

[@free_spirit1]

yeah but what about this MIT presentation about car doors?

[@richcooper6989]

Nice podcast, one thing and I dunno eh it bugs me lol but please either have a glass of water or open ur mouth a little more when talking Sorry hate criticising and probably only me that's bug bearing haha

[@dolganthecute]

funny how you both look like women :)

[@MyName-tb9oz]

Humans don't drive by converting every observable object into a vector and then determining it's relevance. That's backwards. Humans drive by determining the relevance of each object at any given moment and determining the vector and likely future position of the most relevant object. This is a loop and the most relevant object can change with every cycle. Even a human can do that several times in a second and the real problem is determining the most relevant object. That is why more experienced drivers are better drivers than younger drivers who have far better reaction times. The older drivers identify the most relevant objects far faster then the younger drivers. When you face a situation of object occlusion it goes into your short-term memory until you either see the object again or it becomes irrelevant because you have passed the object. If you're sensible and a cautious driver, you slow down as you approach the point of the road where the no longer visible object is likely to be. You also pay attention to that point far more closely than you do other points. When you enter a school zone, as mentioned, you react appropriately by slowing down. When you leave the school zone you just increase your speed. You're not thinking, "I'm in a school zone, I have to drive slower," every moment you're in the school zone. You just drive 20mph until you see the sign that tells you that you're leaving the school zone. What you really have to do is have a system that keeps the vehicle between the lines unless it is overridden by an 'interrupt' from the part of the system that is watching the most relevant objects.

[@letsrelaxwithtexts2114]

Elon in 2035: Going to Mars is much harder than I thought

[@joshholder359]

too real man :(

[@Elusive0101]

All of his projects have massive speculation behind them. He talks about these very advanced and futuristic visions but we are not even close to having the technology or the support of government(because of greed) to achieve them just yet.

[@YourSlogan]

Someone will pick up where he left off, that's the whole point of innovation

[@MariusNinjai]

@@YourSlogan seem like the whole point of human life to pass information down

[@MrMaxKey]

True. But I think he knew it’s hard and he is deliberately overoptimistic

[@andrewrivera4029]

I’m 56 years old and I can tell that my brain isn’t able to process as well as it used to when I’m riding high speed on my mountain bike so it’s truncating the data in order to keep up.

[@arnavrawat9864]

How do you know it's truncating data?

[@andrewrivera4029]

@@arnavrawat9864 are u a mtn biker? Ive ridden for 25 years applying that knowledge as I pick lines, timing of braking, body memory, body position are all mental intensive then you add more speed and things coming up quicker makes me less fluid. I find myself having to thinking less and react more as processing can’t keep up but I still love the thrill.

[@lukemarlowe6930]

@@andrewrivera4029 bruhhhhh. Mad respect to you, really. But I think you are mistaking the integration of the experience into your nervous and entire body with getting old. I think your brain has to work less and in different ways because the act of riding a bike for you is becoming part of every fiber of your body. Muscle memory. Intuition. Etc. When I was a young boy I had to think just to walk. As I grew up tho less thinking was required. But that wasn’t because my brain was atrophying.

[@andrewrivera4029]

@@lukemarlowe6930 absolutely, my perceived decreased high speed brain function is due to age. I’m not a optical or neural expert but the pics we see with our eyes have been corrected by the brain to cover blind spots so its becoming more apparent that my brain no longer does it as quickly, I just used the word truncated to describe that.

[@danf1862]

It's likely that your brain just has more self preservation based predictive modeling that is slowing things down. A thicker tangle of data to sift through before action can be taken. A young brain doesn't have as much data to work with. We used to call it wisdom.

[@Goxilla]

Self-driving is not the key. The advancement of public transport could be the solution of so many problems like; not enough space in cities much less carbon emission less individual costs (for commuting) less need to build new streets (which leads to less costs for tax payers and less carbon emission) less traffic jam (leads to less time spent on the roads =less maintainance costs...) cities could be more pedestrian friendly ... If public transport was for freee and the transportation network was actually reliable and quick people would actually use it. The money which is usually spent on roads could be used for that

[@francescogiacomelli403]

I like your comment but outside the city self driving will be key, also ridesharing/carpooling would make your list compatible with AV aswell

[@Goxilla]

@@francescogiacomelli403 I agree. Public transport has always been problematic in areas with less density and cars will never disappear but cars are so toxic for daily commuting

[@GuppyPal]

The more self-driving cars on the road and the more we transition our roads and "road world" to fit these cars, the better and safer they'll be. There will likely come a time in only the next couple decades when cars on the road are constantly communicating with each other as well as features of the road environment also. The rate of car crashes will drop to nearly, and travel times will reduce due to increased "speed limits" and increased efficiency of intersections, on/off ramps, etc.

[@stunning-computer-99]

This is the first time I understood clearly what a vector space is.

[@kari8187]

Don’t you love it when something finally clicks? Double slit experiment blew my mind for a hot minute, now I get it.

[@oblomist]

Except that's not vector space is.

[@andrewjohnson1056]

@@kari8187 I had a double slit experiment in college

[@alexcargill3602]

@@oblomist yea lol like that's the description that got him to get it? Haha such a bad explanation.

[@iifridgeii9933]

A vector is a moving object, so a vector space is a space with moving objects

[@AtillatheFun]

Cause he’s not an engineer. This is why a salesman should never make product predictions without consulting actual stakeholders.

[@dominicgaudin3400]

What about the windshield wiper problem? Can’t solve self driving until the wipers work!

[@whatdoesnt]

🤣It’s way harder than I thought so now I’m increasing FSD beta upgrade to $12,000 😭

[@whatdoesnt]

*$15k now

[@TheCreativeintelligence]

Brad Baymon wins Powerball jackpot on January 1, 2022 06,12,39,48,50, 07

[@littleripper312]

It would be so interesting to hear a bunch of the programmers talking about how they solved various problems on this topic.

[@dorbie]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/bJnOmoebn9Sso9U

[@saxo689]

You should check out this AI podcast.

[@ejoshcoron]

There is. Tesla AI day kzbin.info/www/bejne/oGHdZXmtmqisaq8

[@arpit743]

@@saxo689 which one?

[@saxo689]

@@arpit743 it was a joke. this one

[@dorbie]

It's been obvious for at least 4 years that self driving is way harder than Elon Musk thought.

[@attractivegd9531]

Snake oil salesman is gonna say whatever it takes to make you buy his garbage.

[@dorbie]

@@attractivegd9531 He over-promises on autonomy but the rest isn't snake oil. There's a lot of haters out there. Sad really. The guy has transformed global space launch and instead of resting on his laurels upped the ante and went for Starship. It's amazing and fun to watch unlike most industry in automotive or aerospace.

[@attractivegd9531]

@@dorbie You are definitely a fanboy, he has been debunked many times now and by the highest science authorities like CNRS.

[@dorbie]

@@attractivegd9531 Wrong, you replied to me criticizing Elon and his long overhyped self-driving so your claim about me being a fanboy is absurd and lacks any credibility. Just the facts, SpaceX has landed over 100 first stage rockets with affordable refurb, and cut the cost of space launch to 25% of the competition, forcing ULA to halve their prices and come up with their own engine reuse plan. They've returned the USA to manned space launch as Boeing still struggles to even test Starliner. So no, you can't debunk stuff that's literally already happened, like millions of electric vehicles sold. In automotive and Aerospace Musk's companies have pioneered technologies that the competition actually killed instead of leading with. Now they're all left playing catchup but they lack the culture to compete IMHO. I'll be delighted if Blue Origin actually makes some progress on their orbital efforts, but their lawsuits hold humanity back. Musk isn't above criticism, but your ilk are a joke with your stupid "debunked" claims, you're the flat Earthers of tech innovation (let me guess you're a Thunderf00t fanboy).

[@attractivegd9531]

@@dorbie lt;dr sorry fanboy!

[@juiceman7649]

I've been a delivery driver for years and I've thought this for years it's not that self driving wouldn't work great but it's the roads and the world around it that we've created that the computers are almost confused how to approach it, it's so un optimized and flawed

[@NoRegertsHere]

Look at what google is doing for it. Only need to map about 10 certain cities in the world to capture most of the taxi work.

[@Ergooo]

@@NoRegertsHere can you link me to some video about it? thanks

[@ionbusman2086]

@@richardkerckhove not in the country

[@NoRegertsHere]

@@richardkerckhove a separate lane on a hwy you could have conga lines of EVs connected with FSD AI. But that requires government to allocate lanes.

[@NoRegertsHere]

@@Ergooo kzbin.info/www/bejne/nYfWe6mCo8qBiZI

[@sarutc47]

It feels like the Full Self Driving development is only on the vehicle side to make vehicles be able to behave like human and read the signs on the road. In the future traffic and road infrastructure will also need to be upgraded to facilitate full scale autonomy.

[@bobwilkinsonguitar6142]

Careful, don't go putting responsibility on municipal governments, we'll never get self driving😅

[@nzer19]

That doesn't scale. Self driving cars need to be able to drive where humans can without special infrastructure.

[@superheaton]

if you treat vehicles like horses back in the days, where the horse is the main driver and humans were passengers of it (on its back), then we just design roads for the horses. There wouldn't be anything silly in the far future as like a human riding on the back of another human in long distances. So, although it is fun for petrol heads to go around vroom vrooming, the far future remains to be functional evolution. And then there will people who treasure beautiful cars as to beautiful horses. That's their thing, but the main infrastructure is going to be autonomous vehicle when it gets solved. And the engineering way to do it is "divide and conquer", which has been the most successful approach. And we are dividing and revising constraints of the system, so that it would be successful. (removing chaos of snow, windy conditions, tornadoes, drunk drivers, random moose on the road, etc.) It could be like all protected tunnel ways for autonomous vehicles like the bots in Amazon or Alibaba warehouses. Or could be that we have better monitoring systems on the highways and roads to send standardized signals to ev vehicles (wirelessly about the road conditions ahead). Further yet, we have to go back to those classical road congestion equations to figure out better regulated intersections, it could all be like a semiconductor chip, so that the populated high traffic areas have gates that direct traffic into that direction over priority of the reverse oncoming traffic, in other words, one way road, without turns, the other slower paths for the lower traffic cars, this ultimately facilitates deliveries and major travels, but hinders minor travels as in going to a friend's house versus going to the airport. It would be slower to go to that friend's house or party somewhere. And so these gated intersections that direct traffic are time compensated to switch open these intersections allowing faster routes to the night club at night, for example.

[@violent_bebop9687]

Completely agree, smart roads need to be created for smart cars. Inventing human AI to drive cars on asphalt roads is overkill.

[@JLS3AL]

@@superheaton most of your points are bad but I like the passion

[@conbatengineer]

Scam artist in chief right here. He didn’t even found PayPal

[@martinlutherkingjr.5582]

Elon in 2022: Twitter is way harder than I thought

[@blondymonk1535]

Twitter itself isn't hard... All the haters and targeted media is hard...

[@martinlutherkingjr.5582]

@@blondymonk1535 The users are part of what Twitter is. Twitter isn’t just a code base or other companies could replicate it.

[@mrdbourke]

6:25 “you’re brain is trying to forget as much as possible” - perhaps the reason why memory is so bad is to remind us that all that exists is the present, pain memories stick to avoid future danger, pleasure memories stick to remember what feels good, the rest fades

[@oblomist]

And this is the "genius" that people obsess about? The "problems" he is describing were knowns DECADES before he launched the self-driving scam. What a grifter!

[@millenialmusings8451]

That's what happens when you read too much science fiction but don't understand science. Elon is a snake oil hypester

[@Flat-White]

It will be interesting to watch self driving vehicles navigating through drunk people. I can imagine people standing in the road or placing street cones in the middle of the road.

[@SPECCommanderShepard]

Model 3 owner here, I don’t have full self driving, but I do use autopilot and 1 thing I can say is that the preservation and safety of the car trumps all other functions, if there was a human stood in the road, alarms would triggered in the car and even if you didn’t action it, the car would stop way before potential collision

[@pooonapiece]

Better than this guy: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pKm3laqmr5WhfNk

[@aldente9310]

@@SPECCommanderShepard How does it perform approaching a red light? Especially a red light that hasn't stopped any other cars in front of you.

[@kinghassy334]

Elon thinks Vector Space is some buzz word when it's an actual concept in linear algebra, the vector space of a matrix is the span of all possible linear combination the columns of a matrix can cover. What he means by a vector space here is domain, your data is a hunch of 1s and 0s from light sensors and its hard for AI to properly contextualize that into some sort of represention of the real world. Once again Elon doesn't know what he's talking about.

[@zzip0]

What is this "vector space" these guys are talking about? Mathematics has been using this for centuries and it does not look to be the same here. Why is this constant confusing fiddling with the terminology? Yes, it is really hard and it is much harder than some half baked academic nerds can imagine. Start with simple problems and prove concepts before making the problem more complex.

[@kevind.shabahang]

"harder than I thought"...story of my life

[@josephcro2138]

"it's harder than I thought" That's not what she said

[@iche9373]

Story of Elon

[@z23456]

I liked Elon until I realized the grift he is on. I'm sure he will solve self-driving, successfully make it to Mars, revolutionize underground transport, save free speech, revolutionize social media, transform payments with X, and create a computer brain interface in his lifetime.🤣 Most successful snake-oil salesman of our time! He's not happy with the normal innovation and evolution timeframes. So he tries to market everything as though it's coming now, to get the hype and money. All to later admit that it's not possible. I agree he's pushing things forward, I just don't think marketing a bunch of different big ideas is the right way. Anyone trying to solve ANY of these problems, wouldn't be spreading their efforts so thin on multiple big brained ideas that can't be executed in a lifetime. He wants his employees to solve these problems for him, with their innovation, not his. And he wants to work them to death while they do it and then take the credit. Elon's life sucks, why shouldn't his broke employee's lives suck too? Totally hilarious; I'm here with popcorn.

[@old_seadog]

If Musk now thinks that self-driving is way harder than he thought, then his original claim that Teslas had everything for L5 FSD was not true. The question is, why did the CEO of a company that was massively in debt claim they had solved L5 which later was admitted by Tesla as being L2? Either he was being untruthful or is not a genius. Or both.

[@spoddie]

Musk is using the term vector space incorrectly.

[@swordarmstudios6052]

What Lex said about concepts really interesting, and has some interesting implications. I wonder if the hard problem to consciousness was solved by evolution as a side effect of the compression it needs to do because of memory limits. Because a concept seems like it could be utilized by a brain as a sort of way to boil things down to the smallest possible operatable unit, and the best algorithm to process a concept is a conscious one. I don't think consciousness is possible without concepts. At least this idea suggests a possible origin of consciousness.

[@moormanjean5636]

This was suggested by Yann Lecun on a podcast, it might have also been on Lex's im not sure

[@jimj2683]

Try to notice every thought that goes through your head for a few minutes and you start to realize what consciousness really is.

[@trajectoryunown]

@@jimj2683 What's really strange is that a state of awareness without any subject of focus or orientating concept is perceptually indistinguishable from acute unawareness. The only difference is that the former allows for consciously passive observation while the latter is more akin to a sleep state where the conscious mind struggles in vain for recollection. This of course can only be felt by latching onto our perceptual extremeties, for lack of a better term, as a reference point as opposed to whatever passes through them like normal. It's truly a bizarre thoughtspace. Just attempting to describe it is absurd. It's akin to attempting to look directly at one's own eyes unassisted while at the same time gazing through a mirror to see their reflections.

[@nb664rbk]

@@trajectoryunown you just couldn't wait to write this pile of bs up. Come on bro

[@Sojourner88]

So why are they still marketing it as "Full Self Driving" - When it clearly cannot and is not allowed to fully self drive?

[@francescogiacomelli403]

It’s a set of features that is available to whoever buys it, when software evolve or new ones become available they get sent for free to whoever purchased FSD. The completely autonomous feature, you got to admit, would be mesmerizing and we could argue if that is gonna happen. There’s also a way to bet on this by shorting or buying TSLA stock, when it goes up fsd is becoming reality and when it tanks it’s losing credibility

[@Friendznco]

@@francescogiacomelli403 Imagine paying 40k to be a crash dummy in a Beta test. Pass.

[@YoutubeStandardLicense]

Yep did my dissertation on deep reinforcement learning, imitation learning and offline learning with computer vision for autonomous vehicles (using Carla) and fuck me it was difficult just for simulation of the problem.

[@steezmunky]

This guy could be focusing his efforts in so many better places rather than clowning around on Twitter and appealing to edgelord trolls.

[@johnnyb8629]

What I think he's running into with FSD that making it harder than he thought it would be is the other things that influence our driving that are intrinsically human. Everyone has close calls when learning to drive that we never forget that affect how we drive from that point on. Like, when that guys comes to a stop in a two lane road unexpectedly to make a left turn, after you rear end one, you never drive on a two lane road with no turn lanes the same again, you always cover your brakes from that point. successful FSD is more than having reaction times milliseconds faster than humans but having intuition that something might happen and being ready for it. How often when your in heavy traffic that small movements of the cars around you tell you what that person is contemplating doing and because you can interpret the other divers little "tells" give you a clue to what he's going to do in the future. So with the neural net self learning programing these sorts of things are probably required to make FSD 5th level.

[@jjg1501]

and right there you nailed it, its the intuition and what that allows humans to do that computers will take years and years if not decades to be able to do, road structure is literally different on every road in america and yet our intuition allows to seamlessly make sense of it all like its all the same. that is really really really really hard for computers

[@johnnyb8629]

@@jjg1501 right, and I think computers may never achieve this because they don't care if they die or end up a vegetable. In order to simulate that which is in humans the nural net will need to simulate the hypothalamus pituitary adrenal axis, or HPA as its known.

[@retagainez]

FSD will always be a "good enough". People are just being sold software that performs well enough. What "good enough" means is the real question. As of right now, where FSD is now, I think it is reaching that point. It's not much different from a videogame being sold to consumers in terms of the software development process.

[@nilsdula7693]

@@johnnyb8629 reinforcement learning simulates that pretty well

[@raviteza8]

Been recently doing my license in Germany. Thought if tesla could encode the German driving rules, they would have FSD in no time 😄

[@ka9dgx]

Do the German driving rules have anything about deer at night, or Moose standing in the road, or rockslides?

[@raviteza8]

@@ka9dgx actually they do. If you See an Animal on the road, there are rules how to behave 😄

[@Labix98]

@Top Lobster You are advised to NOT BREAK and basically try to keep a straigh line while ramming trough whatever there is on the road..

[@gelbeNinjakampfkatze]

@@Labix98 thats not true

[@ErikTheViking92]

@@Labix98 You are advised to HIT THE BREAKS and NOT TRY TO DODGE the obstacle (e.g. deer) since that often results in worse accidents.

[@BuIIet]

Do NOT take a shot every time Elon says vector space

[@igorDobrowolski1]

WTF he is TALKING ABOUT MUSK IS SUCH A SCAMMER

[@simontopps2276]

I personally can’t see self driving cars, with little to no human eminent, becoming mainstream. The only way is if every car changed to this way of driving simultaneously therefor removing the human factor/variable from the road grid.

[@FuriousImp]

Yeah those motorized cars... who needs them? Horses are way more reliable!

[@simontopps2276]

@@FuriousImp I personally like the idea of self driving cars. The problem will always be the human factor out on the road. The unpredictability of humans will always cause problems for an A.I. Even though I drive for a living, I’d love to see a simultaneous rollout of automated cars. It’d take the hundreds of idiots I see off the road instantly.

[@violent_bebop9687]

You've hit the main problem, the roads are completely an uncontrolled environment. Those painted lines on the ground isn't going to stop anything from crossing into it.

[@ictrlaltdeleteu]

He also thought the hyperloop was simple. What a waste of money and a dumb idea.

[@pdorism]

> the only way Yeah no dude you need lidar. Yeah it's expensive but you can't do things just through software. A common camera is much much worse than the human eye

[@420yoloscopes]

Luminar stock. Look into it :)

[@rickysanchez8143]

Elon looks stressed tf out. Stay strong Elon.

[@tibbydudeza]

That new haircut looks terrible - makes him look like one of the 3 Stooges.

[@peterfireflylund]

He looks more rested and relaxed here (and all through December) than he had for a long, long time.

[@Rissespeaces]

@@mariomeza3514 Yeah he's just getting older I feel

[@MattGarcyaDC]

not as much as before. like 2018. But man look at him, running two multi-billion companies concurrently and has like 6 boys.

[@rickysanchez8143]

@@MattGarcyaDC didn’t ask you shit two weeks ago.

[@spritemultipack]

thought I was about to see Elon play peekaboo with Lex . think I would have wet myself if he did because the videos over and I'm still giggling

[@Theviewerdude]

I was really hoping they'd go off on a tanget, imagining a world where no single human ever developed object permanence

[@redMaple_QC]

Master Scammer. "I feel very confident that within a year..."

[@heyhansen268]

cool that the vaporware king tell us now that the problem is harder than expected After promoting and telling everybody for years self driving Teslas are close

[@freddied2485]

Why is Fridman asking Musk, he doesn't know.

[@davidroberts6774]

Would this be easier if self-driving cars had enhanced capabilities compares to ppl? If govt intervened, would it be possible to say... This portion of the highway is effectively "tracked". You delegate control of your car to a central controller which coordinates between all the cars to ensure know one makes any dangerous moves. You just need to signal your exit. Human drivers can't achieve that sort of coordination, but I'm convinced it would help l.

[@mattreigada3745]

I think Musk is underplaying the control problem aspect in likening it to a video game. In a game like GTA or Cyberpunk the world’s control logic is primarily self-consistent and is designed to respond well with respect to its own mechanics. In such games traffic is very well managed because AI is reacting *to* other AI *with* ideal vector knowledge. If you solve the vector knowledge gap, you still have to resolve the issue that not every other agent on the road can be safely assumed to operate under logical principles that are consistent with your AI’s driving behaviors (and often not consistent with the law). In a game like GTA there’s not much impetus on the AI to have a good reaction to a player on a motorcycle driving into oncoming traffic, if there’s any impetus it is for the AI’s response there to be either (1) entertaining or (2) a realistic approximation of how a human driver might respond. An autonomous vehicle (even with ideal vector information) should neither optimize for entertainment nor for the emulation of human behavior. That’s a much deeper problem than Musk has credited and you can see why Lex mentions the game theoretic element (though this also still suggests the flawed assumption that all other agents on the road act rationally).

[@olemorud8362]

He's saying that the problem of programming traffic rules is trivial when you have ideal vector knowledge. He is not saying that self driving is comparable to video game AIs

[@francescogiacomelli403]

I think that as long as the vehicles behave according to the law of physics they can at least partially be predicted

[@mattreigada3745]

@@olemorud8362 He directly alluded to Cyberpunk and GTA and how these games manage traffic, which is the exact reason I cited them. Even if he hadn't, it wouldn't nullify the points I raised. There's more than the codification of systemically consistent traffic rules. One has to account for agents within the system which are not operating under the same codified sets of behavior.

[@mattreigada3745]

​@@francescogiacomelli403 the laws of physics won't tell you what someone means when they flash their high beams at you and vector data alone won't always clarify intent. The other operator may be signaling (for example) that you may merge or enter an intersection even though they have right of way. Detecting this is easy, disambiguating this intent from all the other candidate options is non-trivial and requires context. Moreover there is the implication that all of this is timed (if the other vehicle's operator sees no response within a few seconds they will generally reneg on their offer and begin moving). Kinematics isn't sufficient to ensure operation of the vehicle that is both safe and effective.

[@olemorud8362]

@@mattreigada3745 Even with accounting for accidents and bad drivers it's fairly trivial to hard-code traffic rules assuming you have perfect information about the environment. Getting this information is the non-trivial problem.

[@RobertLBarnard]

Classification of objects (instanciations), context of objects, and knowing the objects behaviour types or modes.... fascinating

[@fexflashprince4142]

So Tesla's worth squat if what he promised isn't real

[@mattstevenson5849]

Self driving cars seem like a problem that would be easier to solve if all cars became autonomous at the same time. They could be networked on like a Battlenet type system where paths, speeds, destinations, etc. are shared between all vehicles within an 'air-space' - and decision making is shared between the nodes (slowing down or changing routes to avoid convergences, etc.)

[@peterschmidts8245]

From a privacy perspective this sounds quiet horrible to be honest.

[@mattstevenson5849]

@@peterschmidts8245 meanwhile the phone in your pocket is tracking every word you say, and every move you make. Privacy and 'off the grid' is relegated to antiquity at this point.

[@jacobnunya808]

Yep, however self driving will have to be shown to be good enough on the roads as they are before mass adoption. Mass adoption will open a new path for optimization.

[@jeffw8218]

Lmao, when are they going to start giving out refunds for the people who bought cars expecting FSD as promised??

[@sandpiperbf9767]

It's almost like Musk has no idea what he's talking about

[@billnorblat4047]

Jordan Peterson pointed this fact out in 2016.

[@FB0102]

lol. jordan pererson.

[@andersbodin1551]

What is not way a harder then Elon musk thought? XD

[@nobsrc]

He claimed he had it 2019.. apparently he lied 🙄

[@commentpost907]

He sounds like someone wanting to sound intelligent

[@ivanov67]

Often, humans use other senses like hearing to make decisions on the road. For example, if I hear a siren of an ambulance or fire truck, I get ready to do different things depending on the situation, like stopping on green light to let the emergency vehicle pass, or pulling to the side and slowing down (or even completely stopping) if that vehicle is moving in the same direction. There are multiple other situations like that. Is Tesla's computer going to be able to do that? There is also a lot of human factor involved in driving, like being able to predict what people could do on the road. It's not just about following the distance, the traffic rules, and seeing objects on the road.

[@cheponis]

Lex: Please challenge Elon about his "cameras only" approach. That is just --- crazy. Even if you could do 'enough' of an AGI to drive as well as a human (and this appears to be what Elon says they need to do) -- why stop there? Why would you not want to drive *better* than a human, in all driving conditions? Think about Superman -- he's 'super' because of his X-Ray eyes and his flying and superior strength. Why don't we give cars "radio through x-ray" receivers? (or whichever parts of the EM spectrum make most sense). Why is not *every* vehicle creating a real-time Database of the so-called "Vector Space" -- so subsequent vehicles that arrive at that (x,y,z,t) location can benefit? Why not allow say a small group of cars to have a leader, and the others 'follow the leader' perhaps doing more extensive peripheral sensor investigation? I just think Elon is thinking VERY small here, and I don't know WHY. (6-3 '76)

[@vintyprod]

i'd imagine because its cheaper to use only optical cameras? i agree with you though

[@namaan123]

as far as I know, Teslas don't just use cameras...I think when he says only camera's, what he really means is he doesn't use Lidar, which is industry standard for these applications since it directly creates the vector space he's talking about. Problem is it looks ugly and is impractically shaped/sized. Pretty sure Tesla's have a bunch of ultrasonic and radiowave sensors along with their cameras.

[@cheponis]

@@namaan123 Ultrasonic in some places, yes. But nothing else. no 'radiowave'. Radar was removed.

[@cheponis]

@Projectile 1 You're not transmitting X-rays, you are receiving them. X-rays may not be useful or practical. But radar, UV, IR, and probably other bands are indeed useful.

[@cheponis]

@Projectile 1 A 'transmitter' emits energy. So, LiDAR emits light, and looks for reflections. Radar emits energy and looks for reflections. Ultrasonic emits energy and looks for reflections. The amounts of energy involved are low --- much, much, much lower than the amount the sun 'transmits' into a person walking outside. Cameras do NOT transmit anything -- they merely capture energy (photons). Other receivers, such as IR cameras, or UV cameras, would also capture energy. There is no danger.

[@charlesvanderhoog7056]

Musk forgets that human beings have more than 50 types of perception, not just colour vision. What about sound (horns, sirenes, thunder), what about smells, what about situational awareness far beyond the street you are driving on? There is much more to FSD than just some cameras.

[@MajinXarris]

And that's the depressing part of "autonomous" driving

[@jamesalexander8872]

I think he knows about that

[@deeteenw]

@@jamesalexander8872 If he does, why doesn't he try to take them into account? At least sound shouldn't be too difficult. Situational awareness is just impossible for at least the next 20 years, probably way more.

[@jimbodimbo981]

I hear that next Version of Tesla auto drive will have Smell-O-Vision based on your post’s comments

[@shko-mi]

Living in bith Europe and the US, here's a fun take: Europe has much more traffic rules and signs which would make it much easier for a self driving car to determine rules on the go (e.g. there are no four way stops). However, US roads are much wider, more geometrical and with better visibility. Now, moving one system to another environment will be tricky and that's why there will be multiple winners in self driving cars race.

[@iche9373]

Cars aren’t the future

[@edaleme7880]

I like lex but he needs to stop going in tangent and let the guests do more of the speaking . Short questions pls.

[@JelloTalks]

I prefer to sidestep the self driving problem altogether and invest in transit and walkable cities

[@welshmouse]

The hardest part of this problem to solve will be the moral decisions humans have to make. Until a person can get in a car and feel like the car will make the same decisions they make, they will never feel entirely safe. They don't want the most efficient math for human survivability, they want the car to always do what they would do. This means there won't be a one size fits all, and I think some sort of learning algorithm that understands how people drive and profile different approaches will have to be an eventuality.

[@francescogiacomelli403]

Cool point. Although I think our morals are highly susceptible and certain difficult decisions might take more than a split second or even forever to be made in accordance to ourselves

[@Knights_of_the_Nine]

We definitely just need a rail system.

[@ianrust3785]

First step will probably be replacing truckers with the technology. That's where the biggest financial incentives are.... by the time it's available for consumer use it should be well tested. Assuming they ever manage to build a full featured system.

[@berendharmsen]

"Self driving is way harder than I thought" - and exactly as hard as experts always claimed.

[@ThomasFoolery8]

That isn’t really fair though. Creating a self landing rocket has experts thinking it wasn’t possible for decades as well. Nothing wrong with being an optimist and pushing the frontier of technology.

[@berendharmsen]

@@ThomasFoolery8 I'm not sure the comparison holds though. I don't think that anyone ever thought landing the rockets was impossible, but that it looked like a lot of effort for something that might not be economically viable. And so far, although the demos of the landing rockets are one of the coolest things I have ever seen, it appears that it still remains to be seen whether it'll be worth the effort. I obviously ultimately should, which is why it seems to make sense, but the ultimate judge will be the economic numbers. Nobody said it couldn't be done, but questions were raised about the economic viability. And that aspect is still firmly in the 'remains to be seen' category - just as experts predicted. Exact same problem with autonomous driving, which I happen to have some tangential experience with. Based on the original (pre-Musk) Darpa challenges, where various companies had vehicles slowly crawling through a desert at turtle speed, most not able to finish the course in the late 2000s, most experts more or less predicted that cars would be at current level about a decade later, which is where we are now. The current state: vehicles can do somewhat reliable traffic jam driving, follow road lines and a number of other enhancements are ready for general adoption, but full automated driving is far away because the systems are incapable of truly dealing with both the real-world chaotic complexity AND are completely inequipped to deal with humans who will take advantage of the AI's need to always err on the side of caution (try drive a robotaxi through Amsterdam or New York - it would never get out of the car park) - these were all known, hard-to-solve problems that look like 'the last few details' to a layperson (and Elon Musk, apparently), but looked like potentially unsolvable problems with the current technology to actual experts. I used to think Musk was a genius, and he's obviously not stupid. But he has started to equate the output of his engineers with his own achievements. He's not an engineer. He's an intelligent manager who grasps much of what his engineers talk about and he has convinced himself he's one of them. The fact that he's been doing that 'I don't want to be a manager, I want to be an engineer'-schtick recently actually tells a lot about his state of mind I think. He's been called out quite painfully as a failing manager due to his Twitter debacle, so he retracts in his self-invented 'engineer silo', because it's easier - and more plausible - for him to pretend to be an engineer than a manager now. At some point, I expect the stories to come out about how he would present ideas his engineers habitually as his own. I mean, every time we have actually heard him talk about technology, he has always sounded remarkably superficial on most subjects. He has quite juvenile ideas about AI, living in the matrix, how to build hyperloops (remember his: 'it's really easy, it's just like an airhockey table' nonsense?). His public appearances are weird to watch, and really always have been. The crowd goes wild, but on stage stands a man who mumbles and stumbles and seems to be making up superlatives out of thin air on the fly - not a great stage personality. The thing that intrigues me about Musk is how - as time goes by - he starts to sound like Trump in ever more ways, and I'm not even talking about politics now. Something about having so much personal power apparently breaks many people; Trump and Musk are two examples of people who seem to have broken under the strain. And I'm not denying Musk must be under tremendous strain, of a kind I can't imagine. But the strain broke him.

[@ThomasFoolery8]

@@damionm121 glad you wrote this up so I don’t have to. Musk went to UPenn and got into an applied physics PhD at Stanford before leaving to start his online payment company with his brother where they worked together to code it up before it got acquired by PayPal. How one can say he isn’t an engineer or all that smart is absurd. I went to an Ivy League school and work as a quant at a hedge fund and I can tell that Musk is smarter than me based simply on the fact that he got into that Stanford PhD program. At the end of the day, op is a progressive leftie and he’s just parroting the anti Musk talking points he’s been programmed to spew by his news sources. Hilarious considering Musk single handedly ushered in the electric car era.

[@berendharmsen]

@@damionm121 The main reason for my 'attacks' are probably that I get the impression that Musk stopped being a 'net force for good' and has tipped into the area where he's doing more harm than good to the world. Why didn't those engineers create SpaceX or Tesla on their own?. Well, that was probably because these people were engineers and not salespeople. That is the whole point. Musk is a salesguy, and he used to be a really good one, one that could sell fridges to eskimo's, or, as was the case with him, business ideas to investors. His great skill - and it's not an inconsiderate one - is his ability to sweet-talk people with money into buying into his ideas. There is nothing - beyond his own rather suspicious constant insistence on the idea that he himself is also a great inventor in his own right - to suggest that he's not ,mostly a guy with a gift for obtaining investment money and the dogged determination to get things done 'his way'. He's not unlike Steve Jobs in this regard. That man couldn't invent the technology himself to escape from a paper bag, but he was very adept at telling others he wanted a cheap way to get out of a paper bag, but with a device that had nice rounded edges and needed a new type of charger. And then his minions went out and made that for him. That is how Musks cars and rockets came together as well I'm sure, and I'm also more than willing to believe that he has a strong enough grasp on all of this to understand and even contribute to discussions his engineers have when they are solving problems. Einstein is actually a pretty good example of someone who sounds a little hesitant in his speech - especially if he uses his non-native English - but when you parse the words it's obvious he says important things. It's not the hesitation and mumbling per se, but what the words actually convey. The problem with Musk is that his words are really only hot air most of the time. It didn't always use to be like that. Musk of ten years ago was also not a brilliant speaker, but a man focussed on what he was doing. The public Musk of the last five, six years is nothing more than a creepy second hand car salesman, promising the moon to shift the crap on his backlot with warrantees until they're off his property. Perhaps I should have clarified that there is a young Musk and a current Musk we should be discussing. Young Musk had some bright ideas and he gathered people around him he managed to inspire to do great things. He may indeed have contributed a thought or two on the products himself along the way. But today's Musk is really more like Trump selling NFT's of himself dressed as a cowboy or an astronaut; desperately announcing ever more surreal new products at ever crazier timelines. His M.O. is now basically: shout random shit on Twitter about things he clearly has no understanding of (but apparently the big man has plenty of time in his busy schedule to instantly reply to sometimes twenty tweets a day - how's that for efficient use of your time?), wait for the fallout to impact the shareprice of his two working companies, announce some kind of sci-fi tech (like a household robot) and pretend you're 'just about to release it next year', followed by 'it's really not that hard, a bit like an air-hockey table', and then, when people are pointing out that his idea is not really new (because he's basically always riffing on existing ideas from pulp sci fi magazines) he'll counter that his contribution to reviving this old idea is 'more profound than people think'. Musk would have been a fine tech boss, like Bezos or Zuckerberg, quietly syphoning more and more money into your personal space, becoming richer and richer, contributing to the evolving wealth disparity in the world, and nobody would have been any the wiser. But he had to be a media personality as well to satisfy his apparently fragile ego, and the result is that people can actually see what he's about and he's clearly not in a good mental place at the moment. If I were working for any of his companies I'd be worried.

[@berendharmsen]

@@damionm121 Thanks for the kind response. Obviously my words are somewhat coloured by the fact that any time you voice any kind of Musk critique (which, as you can probably guess I've done more than once on occasion) is that no matter how subtle you formulate it (and I admit I wasn't being all that subtle here, although I do stand by the words by and large) you immediately get attacked by howling fans who would really want to tear you to shreds for daring to critique their god and that kind of adulation always rubs me the wrong way. I maintain that Musk has had great personal success and that is always something to admire, but there is nothing he did that wasn't already sort of 'in the air'. Just like the world would have ended up with touch screen smartphones without Jobs, or cheap lightbulbs without Edison, or a working telephone without Alexander Bell, we would have had commercial rockets and electric cars without Musk as well. Maybe a few years later, but what's the big rush? In the case of electric vehicles, for example, his big contribution to this space in terms of saving the planet is more than offset by his clear hatred for public transport, which would contribute more to fighting global warming than electric cars ever could. His whole Hyperloop/Boring Company side-project is clearly a (successful) attempt at syphoning off government money that was earmarked for public transport development; lightrail and things like that - stuff that would have made an actual impact on reducing car mileage. As you can clearly see from the speed at which the competition is now overtaking Tesla in terms of volume of production and reliability of vehicles it's clear that all he really did was kick the rest into gear a little. In the big scheme of things Tesla is an accellerator, not an innovator that can't be copied or improved upon. Yet it is still impressive that he was able to carve out a space for a new car company in an already overcrowded field. It's a shame he's running it into the ground at the moment. By being vocally anti-public transport he's making his claims about saving the planet suspicious. By claiming he will be building intercontinental ballistic passenger rockets he shows he's either full of shit for marketing purposes or he has no idea how the economics of rockets work. By announcing he'll be putting housrhold robots on the shelf within two years he either shows he doesn't understand the current state of technology in robotics or he's just playing another Ponzi scheme. By buying Twitter without thinking it through and his subsequent activities at that company he shows he had no idea how social media worked. By claiming his cyber truck outperforms old gas-powered trucks, while simultaneoulsy playing the actual range performance of them close to his vest he again raises suspicions about his honesty. His Boring company is a joke. His AI efforts are mostly irrelevant when placed in context of what the field as a whole is doing. His brain-interface machine hasn't done anything (beyond torturing hundreds of monkeys) that hasn't already been published about by other groups, often more than a decade ago. He is mostly replicating research in those areas, which may or may not eventually lead to unique developments down the road. When you list all the areas he pretends to be active in his success rate drops dramatically, but I will grant that for any individual, being able to boast TWO working companies you didn't so much found but at least put on the map by giving them focus and leveraging finance is an achievement that outstrips anything I could ever do. I'm still most impressed by his rocket business. Without SpaceX, we would all still be looking at rockets as a solution that will be locked into disposable hardware for the forseeable future. His dogged determination to create something that looks like it came from the Thunderbirds has at least achieved something there. Although having said that, I will also say that I have some petty things to say about what his rockets look like. He seems to have this love for making them look like forties pulp-sci fi rockets (probably the source of many of his ideas), making them look weirdly antiquated to my eyes. I prefer the 2001 style of NASA, with lots of greeblies and visible technical details. This, I will fully admit, is a very lame argument: saying his rockets look ugly, but I can't help feel what I feel, just as I appreciate the quality of Apple's products, but I actually hate their designs and UX choices most of the time. Musk is a divisive figure becaus he's a very flawed, but brilliant person. I read an article the other day where he was compared to Henri Ford and how remarkably similar Musks career trajectory seems to be to Ford's. Both were great innovators of production processes, both were seen as founding fathers of new ways of doing business and being fawned over by lots of people, especially the rich and powerful. And then Ford started to lose it. Admired by Hitler, and appreciating this adulation and finding lots of common ground between them, he became a nasty, reactionary antisemite who changed from someone who brought free personal transportation to the masses to a weird, rightwing bigot who wanted to force his ideas unopposed onto the world because he became convinced he was bascially sent by God to rule the world. Musk is on that very same path. Happy holidays! 🙂

[@chillidog8726]

When he is talking about forgetting the most things possible. He is not talking about long term memory. He is talking about working memory, yes the brain has working memory that was discovered with the help of what happens when there is a brain that does not work correctly, through observation of different mental disabilities. You can test how much working memory you have by trying to remember a random string of numbers in a set amount of time the amount of digits you can remember without special technique is around 5-8 for most people. If one wants to remember more you have to forget something else or get that into longtem memory. Those 5-8 memory slots can be any abstract concept, so if you have an abstract concept that is the number "123" then that number only takes up 1 slot in memory. That's how the brain can work on complicated things by abstracting from them so forgeting as much as possible is forgetting the details and replaceing them with good abstract concepts, those take less space (in working memory) so you can remember more that is why people often can't remember the details off stuff that are not in long term memory, because they just think about the concept. For example it does not matter what shape the tiles of the sidewalk have.(you will just remember there was a sidewalk and if it was just and ordinary side walk you likely won't remember how big the Tiles were unless you Fokus on them in which case You put the shape of the Sidewalk Tiles into longtem Memory)

[@chillidog8726]

@@M00SEN420 did a little bit of reformatting hope that helps

[@jonman2279]

Nobody knows how hard it would be...Hahah LEX has NO CLUE about any of this. The man speaks and uses language like a community college student

[@robcab3725]

Something something vector space

[@jakemoseley1811]

Maybe we should renovate some roads so they are self driving friendly, blocking them from bikes, pedestrians, animals etc. then we can limit self driving cars to a limited number of roads which nonetheless get us close to almost everyplace we have to go. We can take over driving for the last 150 feet of our 12 mile commute. That should save a lot of lives until Elon finishes his job.

[@getstuk87]

Waymo doesn't have this issue and is already at level 4 driving. Tesla needs LIDAR, they can't even reach level 2 self-driving.

[@yaseensaifullah8222]

If only there was a way to get accurate measurements of how far an object is which can help make a more accurate vector space, that uses light and other companies like google and apple use for their self-driving models.

[@getstuk87]

Nice. I think this will be why Tesla's vision system never gets out of beta. I believe they cannot upgrade to LIDAR because of Elon's public promise that all currently made Tesla's could and will reach FSD using current hardware, otherwise class action lawsuits and a terribly hurt ego. This stupid gaff is shooting him in the foot.

[@TheDiplomat27]

LOL. No kidding sherlock! Everybody could have told Elon that self-driving is a very hard problem. I can't believe he is just figuring this out now.

[@mookm6639]

Elon has no idea wtf he’s doing

[@mrex3553]

Am I the only one that do not want self driving cars around?

[@piotr780]

This is sad because self-driving cars are the only way to save European hedgehogs from death on the roads, now it is real mayham.

[@bnmbg731]

This

[@Jonathan-ru9zl]

In order for car to be fully autonomous, you need to create first humanoid robot with brain of mature gunmen being Because AGI is needed for driving like human, the ability to see, listen, even smell, and communicate with other humen

[@jrdPalacios]

The solution to traffic and human transport is not FSD. -Its urban density and public transit. Imagine how much easier it is to program a train

[@Professional_Youtube_Commenter]

lex fridman's demeanor is like that of a character in a film.

[@chetan5848]

Yes, self-driving is hard, Musk. People have given their entire careers to this, and they've said the same thing.

[@brewcrewbill]

...now pay $12k for FSD that doesn't do FSD.

[@christoforosmeziriadis9135]

It took Musk eight years to understand something, that autonomous driving experts have been saying all along. He is a slow learner

[@swordarmstudios6052]

a) Elon is sharing what he learned about it to an lay audience. b) Elon is an engineer. He is not a scientist. His role in society is to read the state of the art scientific knowledge, and apply it to the production of practical objects. He spent 8 years learning how to build rockets to. Then he improved on them. That's how engineering works. c) This is STILL an unsolved problem. It's getting there - but no one has cracked this fully yet.

[@christoforosmeziriadis9135]

Musk is not an engineer, he didn't design or built any part of SpaceX rockets. He doesn't have an aerospace engineering degree. He pretends to be an engineer

[@SkyTheOnly]

He did fool people in buying model 3s that'd make 30k a year as a selfdriving taxi.

[@NorwayChallenge]

Well it’s not like people didn’t say this years ago. But Elon being Elon has to over promise and eventually under deliver. He’s been talking about how it’s right around the corner since 2014. And why? Well because just like he himself has said, Tesla’s insanely inflated stock is based on this promise. If they can’t deliver, the stock crumbles. So every year he says it will be done next year. And his gullible fans forget it every time because they are completely uncritical and think he’s some sort of genius future man who can pretty much look into the future. Keep in mind, this is the same guy who in 2016 said that humans would make it to Mars in 2024. He has later delayed that with over a decade to 2035. He keeps making these bold claims time and time again to create hype and give himself this genius visionary image. But it’s all bullshit facade. All he’s doing is buying his way into companies and take all the credit for the hard work his employees are doing.

[@bcameo5269]

Not here shit on this brilliant man, but self driving vehicles is impossible. Its just as impossible as traveling at the speed of light. The vehicle would need to have a conscious plain and simple. Only way I see it being possible is if it were to be exactly like the driving in the movie The Minority Report. The infrastructure of our roadways/highway system would have to be completely remodeled.

[@deeteenw]

This! If your goal is to replace the driver in all conceivable situations in the current road framework you have to build a full fledged AI and we are still a loooong way from that. We know it can be done in principle because at least the human brain/body shows it's physically possible, but to program such a thing? It's not for a lack of trying and there is some progress in basic building blocks like image perception and problem solving. But the sheer amount of experience you would have to code in (either directly or in the form of suitable training examples) is nothing short of overwhelming. You see a small object on the road blocking your path. You need to decide quickly whether to put yourself and/or others in danger by taking evasive action (breaking? steering? both?) or just roll over it. This small thing alone leads to an almost impossible to program decision tree. The major questions are: "Will it damage my car if I roll over it?" and "Is it worth protecting?". So you need to figure out what this thing is and in which category it falls in a hurry. Since you can encounter basically anything in the "small size" category, this is no small feat. You need to distinguish between alive animals, dead animals, metallic (wheelcap (or is it plastic?), rusty rebar iron, muffler, ...) wooden, concrete, papery, dump of autumn leaves, snowdrift, boulders, parcels and babies to mention but a few possibilities. Your mind does that with a lifelong collection of encountering similar looking objects, a general understanding of physics (does it move on it's own accord? or just by the wind? is there any wind at the moment? a storm? or just turbulent air from a passing car? is the road inclined?) and the general probability of a thing being on the road in the context of this particular situation (night/day, temperature, rain/snow, season, truck with loose load, steep rock face nearby, town/countryside, schools/kindergartens nearby etc. etc.). It's just mindblowingly complex and complicated. And don't even get me started on detecting road conditions. You see a patch of different looking road. What is it? A concrete or asphalt repair patch? A bitumen patch (becomes very slippery when wet)? A puddle (a shallow or deep one)? A pothole (small or big? shallow or deep?) An oil slick? Snow? Mud? Gravel? Grit? White Ice? Black Ice? A piece of tarpaulin? A wash away? Again you need loads of context and life experience to determine the most probable answer and to err on the side of caution when multiple answers are possible. And I repeat the state of software engineering in these areas is a very very long way from getting these things done.

[@Mr-Pulse]

This is why within 100 years human driving will be outlawed. The argument will be the same as always, this is for good and safety of the people, and there will be sizeable backlash. But from the generation that grew up with automated cars on order they won't remotely care.

[@rawstarmusic]

Everyone expects Elon to answer basically everything, fantastic Musk

[@MrMaxKey]

What makes you think you know everyone’s opinion?

[@rawstarmusic]

@@MrMaxKey they just ask away no matter how complex the questions might be, real trust in his judgement and so far he lives up to it. If Putin starts fiddling about to much and US needs a solution, Elon would be the man to ask. We all have the same data but Elon concludes how it is and others do not.

[@stephenhartley2853]

@@rawstarmusic how would elon be the solution if 90% of the garbage he is trying to make is physically impossible or deemed too hard to do by the others who actually invented the concepts? my prediction is most of the shite he is peddling wont lead anywhere. hyperloop, more like hyperpoop .

[@rawstarmusic]

@@stephenhartley2853 I am no friend of hyperloop for human transport, only cargo. Can not escape down there. But the rockets really work. The battery cars works. He aims far into the future. Neuralink is uncomfortable but might be the way we can develop human cognition, else tech develops and brain does not. If brain can develop we can solve all problems

[@patrihawks2484]

@@stephenhartley2853 I would say Elon is comparable to a Steve Jobs in that he is more of a visionary if he thought his ideas impossible and didn’t pursue them then u may not have been able to type ur reply

[@Friendznco]

2070: Full self-driving is almost out of beta! I liked Musk's attempt, but the world is nowhere near full self-driving.

[@jfandersson3223]

Developing cutting edge technology doesn’t take a couple of months. It takes years. If you observe the latest iteration of the FSD system you can quite clearly see a continued rate of improvement over previous versions. You can also observe that the system already performs quite well on the road, in the least being ahead of the competition. What this continued rate of improvement implies is that the system most likely will be released to the public within another year or two, that is if Tesla doesn’t encounter any more detrimental problems. Tesla is literally getting closer to a full release of FSD every single day, so why are you stating “the world is nowhere near full self-driving” when it’s quite obvious that it is? Don’t be so insufferably negative. Doing so will piss a lot of people off.

[@NoogahOogah]

I would say we’re actually pretty close from a pure technology perspective. Self-driving cars have driven millions of miles now with a lower crash rate than humans, and neural networks have come a super long way in the last decade. It’s true there are some complicated edge cases that haven’t been reliably solved yet - but if you jumped into the most advanced self-driving car today and picked a destination at random, you could get where you are going without intervention in 99% of cases. In the 1% of cases where the car gets confused, there are many protocols in place to avoid danger and safely transfer control to the operator. Yeah, it’s still rough around the edges, but it’s nothing we couldn’t smooth out in under 10 years with the right push. It only took us 8 years to land on the moon. The main hurtles now are primarily legislative and cultural. We have to get used to the idea of self-driving cars, and we have to gain the confidence/backing of politicians.

[@studgerbil9081]

Elon is a rich guy who bought a great company. Interviewing him instead of the people who run the company is about as productive as interviewing Steinbrenner about how to hit a fastball.

[@lolFlipper]

you have no clue what you're talking about but doesnt stop you from being confident, impressive rly

[@studgerbil9081]

@@lolFlipper what are you even talking about? Tesla is a huge company with many people inventing and building things, right? It is really lazy for journalists to just interview the money guy about everything, instead of talking to the people who actually make things there. Right?

[@tomr6955]

@@studgerbil9081 Agree absolutely.

[@meneerslim5671]

@@studgerbil9081 He's saying that's what elon is doing.

[@talksomenoise7423]

It seems difficult for Elon to paint the picture he is seeing in his mind.

[@Lucas-hb1uq]

He’s trying not to paint the dollars in his mind. The stammers when talking about the tech because he doesn’t understand it and has only had his engineers explain surface level knowledge to him.

[@talksomenoise7423]

@@Lucas-hb1uq ignorance is bliss young Padawan. The evil empire will poison your mind.

[@Lucas-hb1uq]

@@talksomenoise7423 Nice. Unfortunately people have already elected the emperor of tech who cares for nothing except fame and fortune. So many people can’t see what he is. An investor is not one of those them. He’s never invented or helped create any of the tech he funds.

[@yo_its_devo]

@@Lucas-hb1uq lol okie dokie keyboard warrior

[@thetatearmy]

@@Lucas-hb1uq do some research and learn something, Elon is the chief engineer and programmer in all his projects u fool. He is not Steve Jobs who knows nothing about programming if u didn’t know.

[@jacquesduplessis6175]

I drive my car myself, so I have a self driving car 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@DriveandThrive]

Or...ban human driving and make everything self driving. That way you can optimize roads for autonomous vehicles.

[@hussainbukhari6460]

Allah Almighty says in Quran: There are many Signs on earth for those of sure faith,18 (51:21) and also in your own selves. Do you not see? (51:22) And in heaven is your provision and also what you are being promised. (51:23) So, by the Lord of the heaven and the earth, this is certainly true, as true as the fact of your speaking... Why we lie to ourselves the most complex machine on earth has no creater but we cannot build a cam that is even nearer to our eyes capabilities...

[@ken90017]

As I hear the difficulty, what I think is: imagine what doing all this processing with a dumb brain would be like… oh right, that’s why bad drivers are bad. They’re running crap CPUs

[@paulkern7229]

Why do we even need self driving vehicles? That's the question I'd like answered.

[@nazar7700]

A family can then only need a single car instead of 2 or more. The car will drop the dad off at work. Come home to pick up the kids and drop them off at school. Then take to the grocery store. Then while she shops, it can pick the dad up from work. That's just one example of saving money with self driving

[@paulkern7229]

@@nazar7700 - Couldn't you use public transport for that? Not that we have a decent system in this country, but maybe that would be a better place to invest.

[@nazar7700]

@@paulkern7229 self driving cars won't replace all cars in the same way public transport hasn't replaced privately owned cars. The point of my comment is what use a self driving car will provide. That's it.

[@blengi]

I wonder how much first principles/myopic thinking, deludes one into not perceiving the complexity of various quasi socially organized domains like driving, because you're not so intuitively connected to human nature and all the ad hoc patterns it creates? Patterns which are not overly amenable to reason and logic. I'd expect that it's entirely natural for some aspergery high IQ'd type like Elon, to impose rules and predictability beyond their use case, given they're mentally somewhat disconnected from the lowbar mediocre human condition that society has to accommodate. It's like some of the more rabid Libertarians, who think a bunch of self evident principles will make a nigh utopian world - versus other possibilities - if only people didn't have irrational emotions, evolutionarily honed ethnic biases/limitations, genetic differences in psychological preferences towards certain beliefs, that ingroup trust couldn't create economic and emotional benefits way beyond individual freedoms in many instances, because eusocial insects never existed lol etc etc

[@IonorRea]

The question is if FSD can be solved with the current configuration and hardware, personally I don think so, and here is why: Vision of cameras right next to the glass similarly to vision through prescribed eye glasses get far more affected even by few droplets in front of the camera than when you looking at windshield half meter away from driver's position and hardware is not capable enough to compensate for smugged image in a way satellite pictures can be reprocessed to predict detail when smudged shape get reproduced to most likely jet fighter limited visual data point towards through machine learning trained on low resolution images of known objects, that kind of processing power in real time at least 30 frames per second is simply not there in any Tesla current car only on supercomputers and due to placement of cameras next to glass while lacking thermal cmaera to complement lack of processing power and bad sensor placement in bad weather means that government unlikely ever approve Tesla cars in current hardware configuration for full self driving without driver constantly watching over car not matter how many new Tesla FSD software updates will come. For cameras to have decent enough visibility even during rain they would need to have comparable visibility to a driver which would be easiest to do by placing cameras between front seats (perhaps on a retractable arm inside the car activating only when necessary) or into the co-driver seat (which would make it unusable during autopilot). Alternatively and likely the most realistic solution, just put a thermal camera which cannot be blinded by incoming light sources so easily unless having a high thermal signature apart from not being affected by rain or fog very much even when mounted on the windshield or directly above it like LIDAR on current Lucid cars and enforce by law new road signs and road surface markings that are visible on thermal cameras which can't see "colors" (different visible wavelengths reflection and emitting properties) but only see differences in materials if they have sufficiently different thermal properties in order for the thermal camera to by reasonable bad weather replacement for visible wavelengths cameras mounted on the windshield that become useless during heavy rain to a point where reading street signs become unreliable to bet human life on it...

[@newbiatch]

Duh

[@divineigbinoba4506]

How the hell is generating images harder than self driving cars?... Drawing for humans require creativity how is it easy for AI? While driving which requires zero creativity difficult for AI?

[@abdosoliman]

People don't give human brain enough credit when comparing it to a machine. Your brain is slower it can do way fewer computations compared to the machine. But when it comes to sensory input the brain is incredible, you brain can filter, process and remember sensory input to a ridiculous precision in the background while you are thinking about something else or talking it's unbelievable.

[@radhakrishnanmanickavasaga124]

Second one is developed gradually over millions of years of evolution..

[@drh255]

People think this guy is some kind of Tony Stark genius. He's not. He's a great salesman and that's it. He promises huge things and never delivers.

[@lolFlipper]

people think you are a moron and they are completely correct, you have no clue what you're talking about but reading some hate proganada on reddit sufficient i guess

[@drh255]

@@lolFlipper Oh my. Off the top of my head, I can think of numerous things that Musk has promised but failed to deliver. Full self driving. Robo Taxis. Tesla Semi. Cybertruck. Neuralink. Hyperloop. Mars mission. Solar tiles. Tesla robot. For all of these things, he promised great, amazing things but delivered nothing. As I said, he's a great salesman. Musk founded the company that would become PayPal, and he bought his way into Tesla early on. This has made him fabulously wealthy (almost completely based upon Tesla's inflated stock value), but he hasn't delivered on anything else. Do yourself a favor and find a more worthy hero to worship.

[@radhakrishnanmanickavasaga124]

@@lolFlipper see yt channel common sense cryptic

[@snowpants2212]

Sounds like he's thinking about autonomous driving "by analogy" with human driving. Where is the first-principles analysis?

[@cunn1n6ham]

Love how honest Elon is about challenges….falcon doors, self driving etc….just says it like it is.

[@FuriousImp]

He's not a liar.

[@jarniskat]

now he tells its hard :D he is a liar that said its easy to make it to mars and the moon, but NASA pays him to do stuff, because he failed. Just like every other stuff he made. Maybe Elon thinks its all like a video game or movie!

[@FuriousImp]

@@jarniskat You're employing the straw man argument logical fallacy.

[@Mr__Singularity]

No, he hyped all his projects all those years, stock grew(and his wealth) mainly on this hype, now when it's obvious to anyone that he didn't deliver on time and is already years behind his delivery estimates, he says basically obvious things (it's hard, it will take much longer time etc). Soon he will be saying the same about Neuralink and Mars. He is good at marketing. This was and is his thing. Others who are working on similar tech were honest, weren't hyping and are more or less in the same place as Tesla is in terms of technology development(autopilot, EV quality). Eventually his companies will deliver but other companies also will, and they will do it without all those ridiculous dates and hype to increase their stock and make themselves rich fast.

[@Anomaly-pn2pg]

@@Mr__Singularity Very well said. I hate his exaggerations but at the same time, that hype, those exaggerations propelled the electric car industry forward. Other companies would not be making electric cars if it wasn't for him. Governments would not have passed laws against regular cars without his success.

[@timelapse7454]

Running twitter is harder than I thought 🤪

[@untouchable360x]

"We decided to go to the moon not because it is easy. It is because it is hard." JFK

[@tonypinzarrone7993]

The real issue with self driving cars is going to be insurable liability. Who's at fault if you are driving in self driving mode and you kill someone. logic tells me that if you have turned over the driving to the car that Tesla and it's software and hardware manufacturer would be the responsible party.

[@DriveandThrive]

What you need to eliminate all the human errors is to prevent humans from driving. This phased autonomous driving junk is doomed from the start.